Monmouth
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.6 #202
Expected Predictive Rating -4.4 #230
Pace 66.6 #243
Improvement +1.7 #105

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #275 D C C C- D+
Defense #132 C- B B- B- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #194 1.07 #277 -2.0 #251
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #83 0.67 #301 +0.8 #132
Three Pointers 37% #275 0.98 #237 -2.9 #282
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #290 -4.0 #290
Freethrows 15.9 #258 73% #189 11.6 #239
Second Chance 30.0% #200 1.08 #133 0.32 #163
Turnovers 16.9% #214
Total Offense -3.7 #275

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #116 1.12 #130 -0.7 #202
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #258 0.75 #166 +1.0 #118
Three Pointers 41% #187 1.09 #279 -1.5 #251
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #212 -1.2 #214
Freethrows 16.2 #126 70% #79 11.4 #100
Second Chance 33.3% #293 0.83 #8 0.28 #80
Turnovers 17.9% #88
Total Defense +1.1 #132

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.3% #276 1.0% #261
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.6% #282 1.3% #204
Possession Length 18.0 #248 17.8 #260
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #91 0.18 #207
Improvement -2.6 #315 +4.2 #16

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.7% 4.9% 3.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.7 15.2
.500 or above 21.8% 35.0% 14.3%
.500 or above in Conference 44.0% 62.5% 33.4%
Conference Champion 1.0% 2.1% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 3.1% 1.1% 4.3%
First Four0.7% 0.5% 0.8%
First Round3.5% 4.7% 2.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Campbell (Away) - 36.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 34 - 75 - 11
Quad 410 - 614 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 197 @La Salle L 60 - 73 38% -3  0 - 1 -13 -9 F C F -4 C- B C
 Thu, Nov 13 56 @Seton Hall L 58 - 70 8% -2  0 - 2 +1 -1 F A+ F +2 B A+ F
 Tue, Nov 18 67 @Syracuse L 73 - 78 10% -5  0 - 3 +6 +5 B- D B- +1 C C+ B-
 Sun, Nov 23 200 Robert Morris W 71 - 70 OT 61% -1  1 - 3 -5 -5 F A- C +0 B+ C+ D+
 Fri, Nov 28 296 Ball St. W 80 - 73 69% +4  2 - 3 -1 +8 C B+ A+ -8 F B+ C-
 Sat, Nov 29 278 Le Moyne L 79 - 83 65% -1  2 - 4 -11 +4 F A+ A -15 F D+ B-
 Sun, Nov 30 314 @Lafayette W 88 - 74 64% +13  3 - 4 +8 +12 A+ F D+ -5 D- B- C
 Wed, Dec 3 214 Princeton W 63 - 58 64% +3  4 - 4 -1 -9 F F C +8 D+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 113 @Georgia Tech L 67 - 79 20% -2  4 - 5 -6 -2 F C+ A+ -4 D+ B A
 Sun, Dec 14 274 @Fairfield L 65 - 73 52% -0  4 - 6 -11 -5 D- D D+ -8 F D C
 Wed, Dec 17 175 Quinnipiac L 75 - 85 56% -15  4 - 7 -14 -1 D+ F D+ -13 F C C-
 Sun, Dec 21 307 Lehigh W 76 - 62 80% +7  5 - 7 +3 +1 A+ F F +2 F B A+
 Wed, Dec 31 190 Campbell L 65 - 68 59% +2  5 - 8 0 - 1 -8 -7 F D+ A+ -2 A+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 3 157 @Towson W 62 - 48 29% +7  6 - 8 1 - 1 +17 -0 C C F +19 A+ A+ C+
 Thu, Jan 8 138 William & Mary W 81 - 70 46% +3  7 - 8 2 - 1 +9 +6 C+ A+ A+ +3 B+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 126 @Hofstra L 64 - 67 OT 23% +1  7 - 9 2 - 2 +2 -9 F F D +11 A+ A+ C
 Thu, Jan 15 203 Drexel L 51 - 73 62% -14  7 - 10 2 - 3 -28 -13 F D+ F -18 F F B
 Mon, Jan 19 259 Northeastern W 81 - 68 71% +1  8 - 10 3 - 3 +5 -0 D B- A+ +4 C A+ A+
 Thu, Jan 22 230 @Hampton L 63 - 65 43% -3  8 - 11 3 - 4 -3 -3 D B+ F +0 B D- C
 Sat, Jan 24 190 @Campbell L 73 - 77 36%
 Thu, Jan 29 304 N.C. A&T W 77 - 68 79%
 Sat, Jan 31 126 Hofstra L 68 - 70 43%
 Thu, Feb 5 242 @Stony Brook L 67 - 68 46%
 Thu, Feb 12 203 @Drexel L 63 - 66 39%
 Sat, Feb 14 157 Towson W 64 - 63 51%
 Thu, Feb 19 125 @UNC Wilmington L 64 - 72 23%
 Sat, Feb 21 164 @College of Charleston L 69 - 74 31%
 Thu, Feb 26 242 Stony Brook W 70 - 65 68%
 Sat, Feb 28 184 Elon W 75 - 73 58%
 Tue, Mar 3 259 @Northeastern L 74 - 75 49%
Totals 13 - 17 8 - 10 -3 -4 D C C +1 C- B B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 1.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 1.5 0.3 0.0 3.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 3.2 0.6 0.0 5.1 3rd
4th 0.4 4.1 2.2 0.1 6.7 4th
5th 0.0 2.2 5.5 0.4 0.0 8.2 5th
6th 0.4 7.0 2.4 0.0 9.9 6th
7th 0.0 3.8 6.9 0.4 11.1 7th
8th 0.0 1.1 8.1 2.8 0.0 12.0 8th
9th 0.3 4.8 7.1 0.3 12.5 9th
10th 0.1 2.7 7.4 2.0 12.1 10th
11th 0.2 1.9 6.1 3.7 0.1 12.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.7 2.4 1.9 0.2 5.2 12th
13th 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.1 13th
Total 0.2 1.4 4.8 11.0 17.2 21.5 19.6 13.7 7.3 2.6 0.6 0.1 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 94.4% 0.1    0.1 0.0
13-5 55.9% 0.4    0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 16.9% 0.4    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.0% 1.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.6% 14.2% 14.2% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.5
12-6 2.6% 13.3% 13.3% 13.9 0.1 0.2 0.1 2.3
11-7 7.3% 10.7% 10.7% 14.5 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 6.5
10-8 13.7% 6.0% 6.0% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.0 12.9
9-9 19.6% 3.6% 3.6% 15.1 0.0 0.5 0.1 18.9
8-10 21.5% 2.5% 2.5% 15.9 0.1 0.5 21.0
7-11 17.2% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 17.0
6-12 11.0% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 10.9
5-13 4.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 4.7
4-14 1.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.4
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 15.0 96.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%