Monmouth
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -2.8 208
Expected Predictive Rating -3.2 217
Pace 67.1 227
Improvement +2.0 107

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ #270 D+ C C C D+
Defense C #140 C- C B C+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 202 54% 267 -1.9 252
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% 74 35% 283 +1.3 104
Three Pointers 36% 274 32% 237 -3.1 286
1st FG Attempt 0.94 298 -3.8 299
Second Chance 30.7% 175 1.04 159 0.32 157
Turnovers 17.3% 202
Freethrows 0.30 214 73% 147 0.22 187
Total Offense -3.7 270

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 131 57% 158 -0.7 199
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 251 37% 141 +1.1 104
Three Pointers 41% 165 36% 271 -1.6 263
1st FG Attempt 1.04 221 -1.2 221
Second Chance 33.3% 296 0.92 43 0.31 161
Turnovers 19.3% 56
Freethrows 0.28 97 73% 231 0.20 115
Total Defense +0.9 140

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.8 285 +0.4 247
Shot Type Accuracy -2.9 289 +0.8 212
Possession Length 17.6 213 17.6 247
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 98 0.18 223
Improvement -1.4 #272 +3.4 #27

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4% 5% 3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.8 15.3
.500 or above 32% 51% 20%
.500 or above in Conference 68% 87% 56%
Conference Champion 1% 2% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round3% 5% 2%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Drexel (Away) - 39.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 35 - 55 - 9
Quad 410 - 815 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 226 @La Salle L 60 - 73 41% -3  14% 0 - 1 D- -13 F -11 F+ C+ F C- -3 D+ C+ C
 Thu, Nov 13 53 @Seton Hall L 58 - 70 8% -2  39% 0 - 2 C +1 D+ -4 F A+ F B +5 B- A+ D-
 Tue, Nov 18 67 @Syracuse L 73 - 78 10% -5  13% 0 - 3 B- +6 C+ +2 C+ D B B +5 B- C C+
 Sun, Nov 23 204 Robert Morris W 71 - 70 OT 61% -1  42% 1 - 3 C- -5 D- -7 F B+ C C+ +2 B C C-
 Fri, Nov 28 310 Ball St. W 80 - 73 73% +4  72% 2 - 3 C- -2 B +6 C+ B A D- -8 F B D+
 Sat, Nov 29 303 Le Moyne L 79 - 83 70% -1  27% 2 - 4 D- -12 C +1 F A+ B+ F -14 F D C+
 Sun, Nov 30 319 @Lafayette W 88 - 74 66% +13  92% 3 - 4 B- +7 A- +10 A+ F C- D+ -4 D C C
 Wed, Dec 3 221 Princeton W 63 - 58 63% +3  80% 4 - 4 C -1 F -12 D- F C+ A +11 D+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 131 @Georgia Tech L 67 - 79 23% -2  18% 4 - 5 D+ -7 D -5 F+ C+ A+ C -2 D+ B A-
 Sun, Dec 14 262 @Fairfield L 65 - 73 50% -0  52% 4 - 6 D -11 D- -7 D D- C- D+ -5 F+ D D+
 Wed, Dec 17 195 Quinnipiac L 75 - 85 60% -15  0% 4 - 7 F+ -15 D+ -3 C- F C- F -12 F C- D+
 Sun, Dec 21 306 Lehigh W 76 - 62 79% +7  95% 5 - 7 C+ +3 C- -1 A F F B +4 F B- A+
 Wed, Dec 31 192 Campbell L 65 - 68 59% +2  72% 5 - 8 0 - 1 D -8 F+ -10 F C- A+ C+ +1 A F A
 Sat, Jan 3 172 @Towson W 62 - 48 31% +7  85% 6 - 8 1 - 1 A- +16 D+ -3 C- C+ F A+ +21 A A+ C
 Thu, Jan 8 145 William & Mary W 81 - 70 47% +3  69% 7 - 8 2 - 1 B +9 C +1 C- A A- B+ +7 B D- A+
 Sat, Jan 10 117 @Hofstra L 64 - 67 OT 21% +1  38% 7 - 9 2 - 2 C+ +3 F -11 F D- D A+ +14 A+ A C
 Thu, Jan 15 217 Drexel L 51 - 73 62% -14  1% 7 - 10 2 - 3 F -28 F -15 F C- F F -16 F F B
 Mon, Jan 19 269 Northeastern W 81 - 68 73% +1  44% 8 - 10 3 - 3 C+ +4 D+ -3 D B A B+ +7 C- A+ A+
 Thu, Jan 22 248 @Hampton L 63 - 65 46% -3  16% 8 - 11 3 - 4 C- -4 D -6 C- B+ F C+ +2 B- D- C
 Sat, Jan 24 192 @Campbell W 88 - 73 36% +5  80% 9 - 11 4 - 4 A- +16 B+ +9 A A+ F B+ +7 B+ A F
 Thu, Jan 29 286 N.C. A&T W 83 - 81 OT 76% -2  22% 10 - 11 5 - 4 D -8 D+ -2 F+ C+ B D -6 C+ F B
 Sat, Jan 31 117 Hofstra L 57 - 73 40% -10  0% 10 - 12 5 - 5 F+ -16 F -15 F+ F A+ C- -2 F+ F A+
 Thu, Feb 5 213 @Stony Brook W 76 - 75 39% +8  98% 11 - 12 6 - 5 C +1 C- -0 C- D- B- C+ +2 D D+ A
 Thu, Feb 12 217 @Drexel L 63 - 66 40%
 Sun, Feb 15 172 Towson W 65 - 64 54%
 Thu, Feb 19 113 @UNC Wilmington L 65 - 74 19%
 Sat, Feb 21 156 @College of Charleston L 69 - 75 30%
 Thu, Feb 26 213 Stony Brook W 69 - 66 61%
 Sat, Feb 28 215 Elon W 76 - 73 61%
 Tue, Mar 3 269 @Northeastern W 76 - 75 51%
Totals 14 - 16 9 - 9 -3 D+ -4 D+ C C C +1 C- C B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ D+ D+ C- D+ 37% 26% 36% D+ D+ C C C C C- C+ C C C C+ D+ C- 40% 18% 41% D+ C- D+ B C B B- C- C+
1.03 54% 35% 32% -3 -1 0.94 31% 1.0 .32 17% .30 73% .22 1.07 57% 37% 36% +1 0 1.04 33% 0.9 .31 19% .28 73% .22
Nov
8		 La Salle F C- A+ F F 43% 12% 45% B F+ B- C- C+ F A D+ B+ C- B- A+ F C- 54% 20% 26% F D+ F A+ C+ C F D+ F
0.91 56% 60% 21% -7 +1 0.90 32% 1.1 .35 24% .34 65% .22 1.10 52% 11% 50% -2 +1 1.00 45% 0.7 .30 18% .52 75% .39
Nov
13		 Seton Hall D+ F A- F F 51% 19% 30% B F C A+ A+ F A+ A- A+ B A+ F D- B+ 51% 12% 37% F B- C- A+ A+ D- F D- F
0.87 26% 43% 27% -18 +1 0.68 30% 1.7 .50 30% .58 78% .45 1.05 38% 50% 37% -7 +2 0.92 37% 0.6 .21 12% .46 78% .36
Nov
18		 Syracuse C+ F D B+ C+ 37% 14% 49% B- C+ D+ D D B A+ A- A+ B C A+ F+ B+ 53% 12% 35% F B- B+ F C C+ F A F
1.03 39% 29% 38% -6 +1 0.92 27% 1.0 .27 17% .43 80% .34 1.10 61% 0% 40% 0 +2 1.07 26% 1.2 .32 17% .56 58% .32
Nov
23		 Robert Morris D- F C+ F+ F+ 30% 33% 37% F F B+ B B+ C A+ C+ A+ C+ C F A+ C+ 29% 36% 36% A+ B F A C C- A+ A+ A+
1.03 43% 40% 29% -6 -2 0.85 36% 1.1 .39 16% .54 77% .42 1.02 56% 55% 20% -2 -3 0.93 42% 0.9 .37 17% .14 25% .04
Nov
28		 Ball St. B D- C+ A+ C+ 39% 27% 35% C- C+ B- B B A B+ F C D- D- C F F 33% 20% 47% C+ F C+ A B D+ A+ B A+
1.20 53% 38% 47% +5 -1 1.10 38% 1.2 .44 14% .33 68% .23 1.10 61% 36% 42% +7 0 1.15 24% 0.7 .16 15% .11 67% .07
Nov
29		 Le Moyne C D C- F F 38% 28% 34% D- F B A+ A+ B+ B B- B F F F D F 40% 9% 51% D F C F D C+ F F F
1.16 50% 33% 22% -10 -1 0.79 38% 1.7 .63 12% .36 77% .28 1.21 71% 50% 36% +8 +2 1.21 25% 1.3 .32 20% .51 79% .40
Nov
30		 Lafayette A- A B A+ A+ 38% 33% 29% D- A+ F F F C- A+ D+ A+ D+ D+ B- F+ F+ 29% 31% 40% A+ D B D- C C F F F
1.25 72% 44% 57% +17 -2 1.33 23% 0.8 .18 16% .52 71% .37 1.05 60% 31% 38% +1 -2 1.00 22% 1.0 .22 17% .38 77% .29
Dec
3		 Princeton F C+ F F D 43% 31% 27% D- D- F D F C+ B- A+ A- A D A+ B C 48% 4% 48% F D+ A- A+ A+ A+ A+ A A+
0.94 62% 27% 23% -6 -1 0.88 18% 1.0 .18 13% .33 84% .28 0.86 61% 0% 30% -3 +3 1.02 20% 0.5 .10 28% .19 67% .12
Dec
6		 Georgia Tech D F D- C F+ 38% 28% 34% C- F+ B D+ C+ A+ D- D D- C C F D D+ 48% 24% 28% D+ D+ C- A B A- F F F
0.95 39% 29% 33% -10 -1 0.80 33% 1.0 .33 8% .23 67% .15 1.12 59% 45% 38% +4 0 1.11 33% 0.9 .30 21% .47 81% .38
Dec
14		 Fairfield D- C- F F+ D- 56% 13% 31% B- D D+ D- D- C- F A- F D+ B C+ F F+ 51% 21% 28% D- F+ F B- D D+ A+ A+ A+
1.03 57% 29% 29% -4 +2 0.98 27% 0.9 .24 16% .09 80% .07 1.15 48% 36% 53% +3 +1 1.09 42% 0.9 .37 14% .09 20% .02
Dec
17		 Quinnipiac D+ A- F F D+ 57% 18% 24% B+ C- B- F F C- A A+ A+ F F A D F 44% 22% 35% D+ F D C+ C- D+ C- B C
1.04 68% 11% 25% -3 +2 1.00 36% 0.5 .19 18% .37 86% .32 1.18 75% 25% 37% +6 0 1.15 35% 1.0 .35 15% .30 67% .20
Dec
21		 Lehigh C- C B- A+ A+ 40% 35% 25% F+ A C F F F F F F B D+ F D F 32% 17% 51% D F F A+ B- A+ A+ A+ A+
1.13 57% 44% 62% +12 -2 1.23 34% 0.6 .22 21% .19 60% .11 0.92 60% 63% 38% +8 0 1.17 31% 0.6 .17 30% .08 50% .04
Dec
31		 Campbell F+ D F F F 47% 26% 28% C- F D+ C+ C- A+ A+ F A C+ A+ A+ C A+ 58% 7% 35% F A D F+ F A F C- F
1.00 55% 25% 23% -9 0 0.83 28% 1.2 .33 11% .45 65% .29 1.05 40% 0% 33% -13 +3 0.81 38% 1.2 .46 23% .60 73% .44
Jan
3		 Towson D+ F A+ D- C+ 28% 38% 35% F C- B- C C+ F A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ 35% 17% 48% F A B- A+ A+ C A+ F A+
0.98 45% 53% 29% 0 -3 0.95 29% 1.0 .29 24% .39 84% .33 0.76 39% 22% 28% -14 0 0.75 34% 0.4 .13 17% .11 83% .10
Jan
8		 William & Mary C B F A- C 34% 23% 43% D- C- C+ A+ A A- C- D- D+ B+ C D A- B- 40% 24% 36% A B F+ C+ D- A+ B+ A+ A+
1.12 67% 17% 39% +2 -1 1.04 32% 1.3 .43 15% .28 65% .18 0.97 60% 42% 28% -2 0 0.98 33% 1.2 .38 24% .27 47% .13
Jan
10		 Hofstra F F F D+ F 29% 29% 42% D F F A- D- D A A- A A+ A+ B A+ A+ 27% 27% 46% B- A+ C A+ A C F F F
0.90 40% 20% 32% -12 -2 0.75 20% 1.3 .24 17% .39 78% .30 0.94 31% 31% 23% -17 -2 0.65 35% 0.8 .26 17% .56 88% .49
Jan
15		 Drexel F B F F F 40% 33% 28% D F A F C- F A B- A F A- F F F 27% 20% 54% B- F F D F B F A+ C
0.86 63% 23% 18% -10 -1 0.80 42% 0.7 .31 23% .39 78% .31 1.23 45% 50% 55% +16 -1 1.32 42% 1.0 .42 22% .34 50% .17
Jan
19		 Northeastern D+ D- C+ B D 36% 19% 46% D+ D C B+ B A F F F B+ F F A+ C 47% 15% 38% D+ C- F A+ A+ A+ B- D+ C+
1.13 52% 45% 37% +2 0 1.05 34% 1.1 .39 13% .19 58% .11 0.95 72% 50% 20% +1 +1 1.06 35% 0.2 .05 25% .26 71% .19
Jan
22		 Hampton D B- F B C 33% 26% 41% D- C- B B- B+ F F F F C+ A+ A+ F B- 35% 28% 37% C- B- B F D- C F+ D F
0.98 67% 25% 37% +1 -1 1.02 34% 1.1 .38 25% .25 42% .10 1.01 40% 17% 44% -7 -1 0.86 29% 1.3 .38 19% .42 77% .32
Jan
24		 Campbell B+ A- D A+ A 46% 26% 28% C- A A- A A+ F A+ F A- B+ B+ A+ B+ A- 47% 9% 44% D B+ A+ B+ A F C- B- C
1.22 71% 33% 54% +13 0 1.28 39% 1.4 .54 24% .45 64% .29 1.01 50% 20% 29% -9 +2 0.89 24% 0.9 .21 11% .41 69% .28
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
29		 N.C. A&T D+ D B+ F F 44% 26% 30% D+ F+ C+ C- C+ B B+ A+ A+ D C C A+ B 51% 27% 22% F+ C+ F F F B D+ F F
1.12 52% 47% 24% -5 0 0.91 29% 1.0 .29 11% .38 84% .32 1.09 56% 38% 18% -6 0 0.90 41% 1.8 .72 22% .39 87% .34
Jan
31		 Hofstra F D- A- F D 25% 45% 30% F F+ F F F A+ F C F C- C- F F F 23% 27% 50% B+ F+ D- F F A+ A- D B+
0.88 46% 46% 19% -6 -4 0.81 19% 0.9 .16 9% .19 73% .14 1.12 60% 50% 41% +9 -2 1.16 40% 1.6 .64 29% .22 80% .17
Feb
5		 Stony Brook C- C+ F B- C- 35% 23% 42% D+ C- C- F D- B- A- A- A C+ F+ A+ D- D 34% 10% 56% D D D C D+ A D F F
1.06 61% 25% 36% 0 -1 1.00 30% 0.6 .19 14% .37 78% .29 1.05 65% 0% 39% +3 +1 1.10 31% 0.9 .29 24% .29 88% .26



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.7 1st
2nd 0.1 2.1 2.6 0.1 4.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.8 6.3 0.9 9.0 3rd
4th 0.2 8.0 3.2 0.0 11.5 4th
5th 0.0 2.7 9.5 0.5 12.7 5th
6th 0.1 9.5 3.9 0.0 13.5 6th
7th 2.5 11.5 0.3 14.2 7th
8th 0.2 8.0 3.9 12.1 8th
9th 0.0 1.7 7.8 0.4 9.9 9th
10th 0.2 4.1 2.5 6.8 10th
11th 1.6 2.8 0.2 4.7 11th
12th 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 13th
Total 2.0 8.8 21.2 28.1 23.5 12.1 4.0 0.4 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 63.9% 0.2    0.0 0.2 0.0
12-6 12.0% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.4% 25.0% 25.0% 13.3 0.1 0.0 0.3
12-6 4.0% 9.0% 9.0% 14.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 3.6
11-7 12.1% 7.7% 7.7% 14.7 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.0 11.2
10-8 23.5% 4.9% 4.9% 15.1 0.1 0.8 0.3 22.3
9-9 28.1% 2.2% 2.2% 15.3 0.0 0.4 0.2 27.5
8-10 21.2% 1.7% 1.7% 15.9 0.0 0.4 20.8
7-11 8.8% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 8.7
6-12 2.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 15.0 96.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.1%