Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
109 UNC Wilmington 25.1%   13   7 - 1 0 - 0 22 - 7 13 - 5 +4.1      +3.6 85 +0.5 153 61.9 353 +6.3 94 0.0 1
118 William & Mary 21.0%   6 - 2 0 - 0 20 - 8 12 - 6 +3.2      +1.1 134 +2.0 110 84.0 6 +10.6 60 0.0 1
129 Towson 17.4%   5 - 3 0 - 0 18 - 11 12 - 6 +2.4      +1.2 133 +1.3 128 60.9 358 +5.4 105 0.0 1
136 Hofstra 13.5%   4 - 4 0 - 0 16 - 13 11 - 7 +1.7      -1.4 204 +3.0 86 67.8 225 +0.3 168 0.0 1
180 College of Charleston 5.4%   3 - 5 0 - 0 14 - 16 9 - 9 -1.4      +0.3 154 -1.7 226 67.4 243 -3.4 219 0.0 1
205 Monmouth 3.2%   4 - 4 0 - 0 15 - 15 8 - 9 -2.7      -1.4 206 -1.3 209 67.8 224 -3.0 211 0.0 1
212 Hampton 3.0%   3 - 5 0 - 0 13 - 16 8 - 10 -3.2      -1.4 207 -1.7 225 64.9 300 -5.6 247 0.0 1
222 Stony Brook 2.7%   4 - 2 0 - 0 14 - 15 8 - 10 -3.6      -1.2 197 -2.5 250 64.3 314 +4.1 115 0.0 1
223 Elon 2.5%   3 - 4 0 - 0 12 - 17 8 - 10 -3.7      +2.7 104 -6.4 351 71.3 139 -4.8 238 0.0 1
224 Campbell 2.7%   2 - 5 0 - 0 11 - 18 8 - 10 -3.8      -1.8 217 -1.9 233 73.7 83 -1.6 196 0.0 1
227 Northeastern 2.2%   3 - 5 0 - 0 11 - 17 7 - 10 -4.0      -3.6 262 -0.4 177 71.2 141 -3.9 228 0.0 1
256 Drexel 1.2%   3 - 5 0 - 0 12 - 18 7 - 11 -5.4      -3.1 250 -2.3 244 62.7 340 -7.6 282 0.0 1
323 N.C. A&T 0.2%   2 - 3 0 - 0 8 - 19 4 - 14 -9.2      -5.5 320 -3.7 294 72.4 109 -5.7 252 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Tue, Dec 2 224 Campbell 76 96 Penn St. 87   
Tue, Dec 2 135 Duquesne 79 118 William & Mary 83   
Tue, Dec 2 186 Charlotte 74 323 N.C. A&T 57   
Wed, Dec 3 170 Marshall 69 109 UNC Wilmington 70   
Wed, Dec 3 150 Cornell 80 129 Towson 93   
Wed, Dec 3 205 Monmouth 63 247 Princeton 58   
Wed, Dec 3 140 Columbia 72 136 Hofstra 70   
Wed, Dec 3 250 American 75 256 Drexel 73   
Wed, Dec 3 223 Elon 88 153 Furman 97   
Wed, Dec 3 301 Holy Cross 76 227 Northeastern 59   
Wed, Dec 3 212 Hampton 93 319 Loyola Maryland 71   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Dec 6 62 George Washington 92 118 William & Mary 83 80%   
Sat, Dec 6 223 Elon 79 208 Wofford 83 64%   
Sat, Dec 6 134 Georgia Tech 75 205 Monmouth 68 76%   
Sat, Dec 6 256 Drexel 66 229 La Salle 67 55%   
Sat, Dec 6 135 Duquesne 80 222 Stony Brook 71 79%   
Sat, Dec 6 323 N.C. A&T 71 336 NC Central 73 55%   
Sat, Dec 6 318 Louisiana 60 109 UNC Wilmington 70 83%   
Sun, Dec 7 136 Hofstra 64 92 Pittsburgh 71 74%   
Sun, Dec 7 129 Towson 69 63 Central Florida 79 81%   
Sun, Dec 7 244 Central Connecticut St. 67 227 Northeastern 70 64%   
Tue, Dec 9 140 Columbia 74 222 Stony Brook 72 58%   
Tue, Dec 9 315 Howard 76 323 N.C. A&T 75 53%   
Wed, Dec 10 180 College of Charleston 72 79 South Florida 84 86%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
UNC Wilmington 2.8 36.3 22.1 14.8 9.7 6.2 4.0 2.5 1.9 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1
William & Mary 3.1 30.1 21.2 16.3 11.0 7.5 4.9 3.5 2.2 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.1
Towson 3.5 24.2 20.4 15.8 12.1 8.8 6.0 4.2 3.1 2.3 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.2
Hofstra 4.0 17.3 18.0 16.1 13.5 10.3 7.3 5.7 4.5 3.0 1.9 1.5 0.6 0.4
College of Charleston 6.0 6.0 8.1 10.1 11.8 11.8 11.3 9.8 8.4 7.1 6.0 4.9 3.5 1.4
Monmouth 7.6 1.6 3.4 5.3 7.4 8.9 10.4 10.6 10.9 11.0 10.3 9.1 7.5 3.7
Hampton 7.4 2.3 4.2 5.8 7.7 9.6 10.3 11.1 11.1 10.1 9.3 8.8 6.2 3.5
Stony Brook 7.6 2.2 4.0 5.5 7.4 8.7 9.8 10.3 9.9 10.1 10.0 9.2 8.2 4.7
Elon 7.8 1.7 3.3 4.9 6.8 8.0 9.7 10.1 10.8 10.7 10.4 9.8 8.2 5.4
Campbell 7.6 2.1 3.5 5.3 7.3 9.2 10.1 10.4 10.3 10.6 10.1 8.6 7.6 5.0
Northeastern 8.2 1.3 2.5 4.2 5.6 7.4 8.5 10.0 10.8 10.8 11.2 11.1 10.0 6.6
Drexel 8.8 0.9 1.7 3.2 4.1 6.2 7.6 9.0 9.9 11.0 12.3 12.3 13.4 8.6
N.C. A&T 11.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.5 2.3 3.5 4.6 6.0 8.7 12.4 20.0 38.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
UNC Wilmington 13 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.6 4.7 7.7 10.5 14.1 16.2 14.8 13.4 8.5 4.1 1.0
William & Mary 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.9 3.5 6.2 8.7 12.2 14.5 15.3 14.4 10.9 6.8 3.1 1.0
Towson 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.8 4.7 7.3 10.6 13.0 14.5 14.5 12.4 9.5 5.1 2.3 0.5
Hofstra 11 - 7 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.3 3.9 6.6 9.8 11.8 14.1 14.7 13.5 10.1 6.5 3.6 1.2 0.2
College of Charleston 9 - 9 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.5 4.5 7.1 9.8 11.9 14.0 13.7 12.2 9.7 6.5 3.8 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0
Monmouth 8 - 10 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.7 5.9 8.8 12.0 14.0 14.4 13.5 10.6 8.0 4.6 2.4 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Hampton 8 - 10 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.6 4.8 8.4 11.2 13.3 14.4 13.3 11.8 8.2 5.4 3.1 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Stony Brook 8 - 10 0.0 0.5 1.6 3.5 6.0 8.9 11.8 13.1 13.6 12.5 10.5 7.6 5.0 3.0 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1
Elon 8 - 10 0.0 0.5 1.5 3.7 6.5 9.6 12.4 13.9 13.8 12.7 9.5 7.3 4.4 2.4 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Campbell 8 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.3 5.6 9.0 11.8 13.5 13.8 12.8 10.7 8.0 4.7 2.6 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0
Northeastern 7 - 11 0.2 0.7 2.1 4.6 7.4 10.8 13.3 14.3 13.6 11.7 8.8 6.1 3.6 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
Drexel 7 - 11 0.2 1.0 3.1 6.2 9.5 12.5 14.4 14.2 12.7 10.1 6.9 4.5 2.6 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
N.C. A&T 4 - 14 3.1 8.2 13.2 15.9 15.7 13.9 10.8 7.9 4.8 3.0 1.9 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
UNC Wilmington 36.3% 24.6 9.2 2.0 0.4 0.0 0.0
William & Mary 30.1% 20.0 7.8 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Towson 24.2% 15.0 6.9 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
Hofstra 17.3% 10.1 5.3 1.5 0.4 0.0
College of Charleston 6.0% 2.9 2.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Monmouth 1.6% 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Hampton 2.3% 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
Stony Brook 2.2% 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Elon 1.7% 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Campbell 2.1% 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Northeastern 1.3% 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Drexel 0.9% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
N.C. A&T 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
UNC Wilmington 25.1% 25.1% 0.0% 13   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.8 9.0 9.5 4.0 0.7 0.0 74.9 0.0%
William & Mary 21.0% 21.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.0 8.5 7.6 2.4 0.4 0.0 79.0 0.1%
Towson 17.4% 17.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 5.3 6.9 3.4 0.8 0.1 82.6 0.0%
Hofstra 13.5% 13.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.2 3.8 1.4 0.4 86.5 0.0%
College of Charleston 5.4% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.9 1.4 0.7 94.6 0.0%
Monmouth 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.1 0.6 1.0 1.1 0.5 96.8 0.0%
Hampton 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.0 0.6 97.0 0.0%
Stony Brook 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.3 97.3 0.0%
Elon 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.5 97.5 0.0%
Campbell 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.5 97.3 0.0%
Northeastern 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.6 97.8 0.0%
Drexel 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 98.8 0.0%
N.C. A&T 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
UNC Wilmington 25.1% 0.0% 25.1% 3.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
William & Mary 21.0% 0.0% 21.0% 2.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Towson 17.4% 0.1% 17.4% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hofstra 13.5% 0.2% 13.4% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
College of Charleston 5.4% 0.4% 5.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Monmouth 3.2% 0.2% 3.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hampton 3.0% 0.3% 2.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stony Brook 2.7% 0.2% 2.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elon 2.5% 0.3% 2.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Campbell 2.7% 0.4% 2.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northeastern 2.2% 0.4% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drexel 1.2% 0.3% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
N.C. A&T 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 98.9% 1.0 1.1 98.9 0.0
2nd Round 9.2% 0.1 90.8 9.2
Sweet Sixteen 1.6% 0.0 98.4 1.6
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0