Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
125 UNC Wilmington 22.2%   14   15 - 3 6 - 1 +2.4      +0.8 139 +1.5 120 64.3 301 +5.0 95 +7.0 1
126 Hofstra 19.6%   11 - 7 4 - 3 +2.2      +2.7 106 -0.5 185 63.8 315 +2.9 122 -1.1 5
138 William & Mary 15.3%   11 - 6 4 - 3 +1.3      -0.4 174 +1.7 115 82.7 5 +3.7 108 -0.7 4
157 Towson 9.8%   10 - 9 4 - 4 +0.1      -2.6 243 +2.7 99 60.9 358 +0.8 153 -1.7 10
164 College of Charleston 9.7%   11 - 8 5 - 2 -0.4      +0.4 152 -0.7 194 70.4 139 +1.1 147 +2.9 2
184 Elon 5.7%   10 - 8 4 - 3 -1.7      +3.1 98 -4.8 311 67.9 216 -0.6 172 -1.6 7
190 Campbell 5.2%   7 - 11 3 - 4 -1.9      +0.5 149 -2.5 252 74.0 59 -1.0 182 -1.6 9
202 Monmouth 3.5%   8 - 11 3 - 4 -2.6      -3.7 275 +1.1 132 66.6 243 -4.4 230 -3.7 11
203 Drexel 3.7%   8 - 11 3 - 4 -2.7      -3.7 277 +1.1 130 60.9 355 -5.4 248 -1.3 6
230 Hampton 2.5%   8 - 10 4 - 3 -3.9      -3.8 279 -0.1 170 64.5 297 -5.4 249 -0.7 3
242 Stony Brook 1.7%   10 - 9 4 - 4 -4.5      -1.9 220 -2.6 256 62.9 330 -1.7 198 -1.6 8
259 Northeastern 0.9%   6 - 13 2 - 6 -5.3      -0.4 175 -4.9 315 73.2 72 -6.1 262 -8.4 12
304 N.C. A&T 0.1%   6 - 10 1 - 6 -8.2      -3.5 271 -4.7 309 72.4 88 -7.2 283 -11.9 13


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Mon, Jan 19 203 Drexel 58 157 Towson 59   
Mon, Jan 19 202 Monmouth 81 259 Northeastern 68   
Mon, Jan 19 230 Hampton 82 304 N.C. A&T 61   
Thu, Jan 22 190 Campbell 83 164 College of Charleston 87   
Thu, Jan 22 230 Hampton 65 202 Monmouth 63   
Thu, Jan 22 184 Elon 59 157 Towson 72   
Thu, Jan 22 126 Hofstra 78 304 N.C. A&T 79   
Thu, Jan 22 125 UNC Wilmington 70 138 William & Mary 77   
Thu, Jan 22 259 Northeastern 80 242 Stony Brook 95   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Jan 24 126 Hofstra 77 138 William & Mary 79 58%   
Sat, Jan 24 164 College of Charleston 81 184 Elon 77 66%   
Sat, Jan 24 190 Campbell 76 202 Monmouth 73 64%   
Sat, Jan 24 203 Drexel 74 259 Northeastern 69 70%   
Sat, Jan 24 230 Hampton 66 125 UNC Wilmington 69 62%   
Sat, Jan 24 304 N.C. A&T 67 157 Towson 72 70%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
UNC Wilmington 1.8 62.2 17.3 8.9 5.1 2.8 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
Hofstra 3.5 18.8 23.3 16.9 12.5 9.5 6.8 4.9 3.2 2.1 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0
William & Mary 3.8 16.1 21.8 17.8 12.7 9.8 7.3 5.2 3.8 2.8 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.0
Towson 5.1 5.6 12.0 14.5 14.5 13.2 10.8 9.3 7.3 5.7 4.0 2.3 0.6 0.1
College of Charleston 3.7 18.7 20.2 16.6 12.9 10.4 7.7 5.6 3.5 2.4 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0
Elon 6.2 4.0 7.4 9.6 10.3 11.3 11.5 11.6 10.8 9.5 7.3 5.0 1.4 0.2
Campbell 6.6 2.3 5.9 8.5 9.6 10.8 11.7 11.4 11.0 10.6 8.8 6.5 2.3 0.6
Monmouth 7.7 1.1 3.0 5.2 6.6 8.3 10.1 10.8 11.8 12.5 12.7 11.5 5.4 1.0
Drexel 7.0 1.5 4.5 7.3 9.1 11.1 11.1 11.2 11.1 10.8 9.9 8.0 4.0 0.6
Hampton 7.2 1.9 4.2 6.1 7.4 9.3 10.4 11.7 12.2 12.5 11.4 8.9 3.4 0.6
Stony Brook 7.9 0.5 2.0 4.0 5.9 7.7 9.6 10.6 12.4 13.4 14.5 13.1 5.6 0.6
Northeastern 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.8 2.3 3.8 6.2 10.2 18.5 42.4 13.2
N.C. A&T 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.4 3.0 6.4 21.2 66.4

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
UNC Wilmington 13 - 5 22 - 7 0.1 0.5 2.0 5.6 11.5 17.9 21.4 20.5 13.1 6.0 1.3
Hofstra 11 - 7 18 - 11 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.9 4.8 10.7 17.4 22.1 20.9 14.0 6.6 1.3
William & Mary 11 - 7 18 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.2 5.8 12.0 18.3 21.5 19.7 13.0 5.5 1.2
Towson 10 - 8 16 - 13 0.1 0.5 1.8 5.7 12.0 18.6 22.9 20.0 12.5 5.0 1.0
College of Charleston 11 - 7 17 - 13 0.0 0.5 1.9 5.9 12.3 18.3 21.1 18.9 12.7 6.2 1.9 0.3
Elon 9 - 9 15 - 14 0.1 1.2 4.6 10.8 17.9 21.8 19.4 13.4 7.2 2.8 0.7 0.0
Campbell 9 - 9 13 - 16 0.1 0.5 2.3 6.5 12.1 18.7 21.6 18.6 11.9 5.8 1.7 0.2
Monmouth 8 - 10 13 - 17 0.2 1.3 4.6 10.9 17.5 21.3 19.7 13.9 7.4 2.6 0.7 0.1
Drexel 9 - 9 14 - 16 0.1 0.7 2.7 7.7 13.9 19.5 21.3 17.8 10.3 4.5 1.3 0.2
Hampton 9 - 9 13 - 16 0.6 3.2 8.9 16.1 21.0 20.8 15.5 8.7 3.8 1.2 0.2 0.0
Stony Brook 8 - 10 14 - 15 0.9 4.4 12.2 20.2 23.1 19.1 12.4 5.7 1.7 0.4 0.0
Northeastern 6 - 12 10 - 19 2.2 8.9 17.5 22.8 21.5 14.8 7.9 3.2 0.9 0.2 0.0
N.C. A&T 4 - 14 9 - 18 6.7 17.5 24.1 22.7 15.2 8.4 3.8 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
UNC Wilmington 62.2% 45.2 12.3 3.6 0.9 0.2 0.1
Hofstra 18.8% 8.9 6.7 2.4 0.7 0.2 0.0
William & Mary 16.1% 7.0 5.9 2.3 0.7 0.2 0.0
Towson 5.6% 1.6 2.0 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
College of Charleston 18.7% 9.3 6.2 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.1
Elon 4.0% 1.4 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Campbell 2.3% 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Monmouth 1.1% 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Drexel 1.5% 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Hampton 1.9% 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
Stony Brook 0.5% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northeastern 0.0% 0.0
N.C. A&T


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
UNC Wilmington 22.2% 22.2% 0.0% 14   0.3 4.3 11.3 5.8 0.6 77.8 0.0%
Hofstra 19.6% 19.6% 0.0% 0.3 6.4 9.7 3.0 0.3 0.0 80.4 0.0%
William & Mary 15.3% 15.3% 0.0% 0.2 2.8 7.6 4.1 0.6 0.0 84.7 0.0%
Towson 9.8% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.7 3.4 3.9 1.6 0.2 90.2 0.0%
College of Charleston 9.7% 9.7% 0.0% 0.4 2.9 4.5 1.9 0.1 90.3 0.0%
Elon 5.7% 5.7% 0.0% 0.1 1.2 2.5 1.6 0.3 94.3 0.0%
Campbell 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.4 0.9 94.8 0.0%
Monmouth 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.6 1.0 96.5 0.0%
Drexel 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 1.1 96.3 0.0%
Hampton 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 0.9 97.5 0.0%
Stony Brook 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.4 98.3 0.0%
Northeastern 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.7 99.1 0.0%
N.C. A&T 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 98.7% 1.0 1.3 98.7
2nd Round 4.7% 0.0 95.3 4.7
Sweet Sixteen 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.5
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
UNC Wilmington 22.2% 0.0% 22.2% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hofstra 19.6% 0.0% 19.6% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
William & Mary 15.3% 0.0% 15.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Towson 9.8% 0.0% 9.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
College of Charleston 9.7% 0.0% 9.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elon 5.7% 0.1% 5.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Campbell 5.2% 0.5% 5.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Monmouth 3.5% 0.6% 3.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drexel 3.7% 0.6% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hampton 2.5% 0.5% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stony Brook 1.7% 0.1% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northeastern 0.9% 0.7% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
N.C. A&T 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%