Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
117 UNC Wilmington 25.0%   15   16 - 5 8 - 2 21 - 8 13 - 5 +2.8      +3.1 90 -0.3 176 65.0 270 +3.8 113 +4.2 3
131 College of Charleston 18.1%   16 - 6 7 - 3 21 - 9 12 - 6 +1.7      +1.6 129 +0.1 165 75.7 34 +5.1 93 +2.8 4
160 Towson 15.8%   13 - 9 9 - 1 18 - 12 14 - 4 +0.4      -1.3 212 +1.7 131 59.2 357 +2.0 138 +11.0 1
174 Hofstra 6.5%   10 - 11 4 - 6 15 - 14 9 - 9 -0.6      -4.5 295 +4.0 73 62.2 338 0.0 167 -3.0 8
175 Elon 8.2%   13 - 8 6 - 4 17 - 12 10 - 8 -0.7      +0.3 176 -1.0 209 63.5 307 +0.7 159 -1.5 6
178 Campbell 9.4%   10 - 11 7 - 3 15 - 14 12 - 6 -0.8      -2.6 240 +1.7 128 66.3 231 -3.5 224 +2.7 5
195 Drexel 4.7%   11 - 11 4 - 6 16 - 14 9 - 9 -1.6      -2.4 237 +0.8 148 60.7 349 -2.9 214 -5.1 10
206 Northeastern 3.8%   12 - 11 4 - 6 17 - 14 9 - 9 -2.2      -1.8 224 -0.5 185 69.5 147 -1.3 190 -3.7 9
208 William & Mary 6.0%   12 - 9 8 - 2 16 - 13 12 - 6 -2.4      +1.7 127 -4.1 294 76.6 18 -0.4 175 +5.3 2
232 Delaware 1.3%   9 - 12 4 - 6 12 - 17 7 - 11 -4.1      +1.4 138 -5.5 330 74.1 47 -4.6 242 -6.0 11
253 Monmouth 1.0%   7 - 16 5 - 5 10 - 21 8 - 10 -5.3      -2.7 243 -2.7 251 68.8 167 -6.4 271 -2.8 7
287 Hampton 0.4%   8 - 12 3 - 7 11 - 17 6 - 12 -6.9      -3.9 277 -3.1 264 64.6 278 -4.6 243 -8.6 12
318 Stony Brook 0.1%   4 - 18 1 - 9 6 - 24 3 - 15 -9.2      -3.1 254 -6.1 338 63.8 300 -10.7 329 -15.9 13
333 N.C. A&T 0.0%   3 - 19 0 - 10 5 - 25 2 - 16 -10.9      -4.8 301 -6.1 339 76.6 20 -15.1 352 -20.4 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
UNC Wilmington 2.3 33.0 33.7 16.5 9.3 4.6 1.9 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
College of Charleston 3.1 13.6 24.7 27.5 17.1 10.1 4.0 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.0
Towson 1.5 70.3 19.0 6.5 2.8 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Hofstra 6.8 0.4 3.5 8.7 14.0 20.1 20.1 13.8 9.9 5.7 3.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
Elon 5.5 1.7 4.9 10.3 15.3 18.1 19.7 14.5 8.6 4.4 2.0 0.6 0.0
Campbell 4.0 7.4 14.3 20.5 21.2 17.4 9.9 5.6 2.5 0.9 0.3 0.1
Drexel 7.9 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.0 7.7 11.1 15.2 18.9 17.4 12.5 8.1 3.2 0.1
Northeastern 7.8 0.2 1.5 4.1 7.5 12.5 16.1 18.8 17.9 13.7 5.8 1.8 0.1
William & Mary 4.0 8.8 13.6 19.3 21.5 16.4 9.4 5.9 3.2 1.5 0.4 0.0
Delaware 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 3.0 5.4 8.9 14.1 21.9 31.6 12.4 0.7
Monmouth 8.5 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.1 4.7 9.4 12.5 17.1 18.8 19.8 11.0 3.3 0.1
Hampton 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 3.3 6.0 11.4 21.5 47.1 8.6 0.2
Stony Brook 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 3.7 16.2 67.9 10.2
N.C. A&T 13.7 0.0 0.1 1.2 22.9 75.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
UNC Wilmington 13 - 5 0.0 0.6 2.5 8.5 18.3 25.9 25.3 14.8 4.1
College of Charleston 12 - 6 0.2 2.0 6.8 17.3 27.0 27.0 15.6 4.1
Towson 14 - 4 0.0 0.3 2.1 7.5 17.7 26.4 26.7 15.0 4.3
Hofstra 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 1.6 6.0 14.9 24.8 28.3 18.3 5.9
Elon 10 - 8 0.2 1.7 7.7 18.1 26.1 25.0 15.1 5.3 0.8
Campbell 12 - 6 0.1 1.4 6.5 15.4 24.2 26.5 18.0 6.7 1.2
Drexel 9 - 9 0.2 1.5 6.2 15.6 23.4 24.8 18.2 8.5 1.6
Northeastern 9 - 9 0.1 1.0 4.9 13.9 24.1 26.9 19.9 7.9 1.3
William & Mary 12 - 6 1.2 7.0 16.9 23.8 24.1 16.2 8.0 2.5 0.3
Delaware 7 - 11 2.7 11.2 22.7 26.7 20.9 10.9 4.0 0.8 0.1
Monmouth 8 - 10 2.0 9.0 20.1 27.0 22.9 12.7 5.0 1.2 0.1
Hampton 6 - 12 4.0 15.7 26.6 26.9 16.8 7.7 1.9 0.4 0.1
Stony Brook 3 - 15 7.0 20.0 27.9 24.6 13.5 5.4 1.5 0.3 0.0
N.C. A&T 2 - 16 18.1 36.0 28.3 12.9 3.8 0.8 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
UNC Wilmington 33.0% 15.5 13.0 3.5 0.9 0.1 0.0
College of Charleston 13.6% 4.3 5.6 2.9 0.7 0.1 0.0
Towson 70.3% 47.4 17.4 4.4 0.9 0.1 0.0
Hofstra
Elon 1.7% 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
Campbell 7.4% 2.2 2.6 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
Drexel 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Northeastern
William & Mary 8.8% 3.1 3.1 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.0
Delaware 0.0% 0.0
Monmouth 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hampton
Stony Brook
N.C. A&T


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
UNC Wilmington 25.0% 25.0% 0.0% 15   0.1 2.8 9.6 10.5 2.0 0.0 75.0 0.0%
College of Charleston 18.1% 18.1% 0.0% 0.1 1.2 5.4 8.6 2.7 0.1 81.9 0.0%
Towson 15.8% 15.8% 0.0% 0.6 2.8 7.5 4.6 0.4 84.2 0.0%
Hofstra 6.5% 6.5% 0.0% 0.1 1.0 2.4 2.6 0.4 93.5 0.0%
Elon 8.2% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.8 2.5 0.1 91.9 0.0%
Campbell 9.4% 9.4% 0.0% 0.1 1.0 4.9 3.4 90.6 0.0%
Drexel 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.2 1.0 95.4 0.0%
Northeastern 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.0 0.9 96.2 0.0%
William & Mary 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.2 0.8 94.0 0.0%
Delaware 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 98.7 0.0%
Monmouth 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 1.0 99.0 0.0%
Hampton 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 99.6 0.0%
Stony Brook 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
N.C. A&T 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
UNC Wilmington 25.0% 0.0% 25.0% 1.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
College of Charleston 18.1% 0.0% 18.1% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Towson 15.8% 0.0% 15.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hofstra 6.5% 0.1% 6.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elon 8.2% 0.0% 8.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Campbell 9.4% 0.9% 9.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drexel 4.7% 0.2% 4.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northeastern 3.8% 0.2% 3.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
William & Mary 6.0% 0.1% 6.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Delaware 1.3% 0.4% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Monmouth 1.0% 0.9% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hampton 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stony Brook 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
N.C. A&T 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 98.7% 1.0 1.3 98.7
2nd Round 5.2% 0.1 94.8 5.2
Sweet Sixteen 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0