Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
110 Hofstra 22.5%   13   7 - 4 0 - 0 20 - 9 13 - 5 +3.7      +1.6 124 +2.1 104 64.8 304 +5.9 92 0.0 1
118 William & Mary 19.4%   7 - 3 0 - 0 19 - 9 12 - 6 +3.1      +1.4 133 +1.7 118 82.9 6 +8.8 70 0.0 1
120 UNC Wilmington 18.3%   9 - 2 0 - 0 21 - 8 12 - 6 +2.8      +2.8 106 0.0 160 62.5 344 +3.4 123 0.0 1
128 Towson 15.6%   6 - 5 0 - 0 18 - 11 12 - 6 +2.2      +0.1 164 +2.0 106 60.3 363 +4.8 101 0.0 1
166 Elon 6.9%   6 - 5 0 - 0 16 - 13 10 - 8 -0.5      +3.7 88 -4.2 314 67.2 246 +0.2 161 0.0 1
169 College of Charleston 6.8%   6 - 6 0 - 0 16 - 14 10 - 8 -0.6      +0.3 155 -1.0 199 68.8 205 -0.3 169 0.0 1
205 Northeastern 2.9%   4 - 7 0 - 0 12 - 17 8 - 9 -2.9      -1.6 208 -1.3 210 70.5 154 -4.1 231 0.0 1
224 Monmouth 1.8%   5 - 7 0 - 0 13 - 17 7 - 10 -3.9      -1.9 218 -2.0 234 67.8 229 -5.4 249 0.0 1
225 Campbell 2.0%   4 - 7 0 - 0 12 - 17 8 - 10 -4.0      -1.6 209 -2.4 247 75.1 48 -1.4 185 0.0 1
238 Hampton 1.4%   4 - 7 0 - 0 11 - 18 7 - 11 -4.6      -2.5 234 -2.1 238 65.4 287 -7.8 284 0.0 1
246 Stony Brook 1.3%   6 - 5 0 - 0 13 - 16 7 - 11 -4.9      -3.3 257 -1.7 223 63.9 320 -0.9 179 0.0 1
274 Drexel 0.8%   5 - 7 0 - 0 11 - 19 6 - 12 -6.0      -3.5 264 -2.6 257 63.4 329 -8.7 303 0.0 1
301 N.C. A&T 0.4%   5 - 4 0 - 0 10 - 17 5 - 13 -7.7      -5.0 305 -2.7 265 72.4 100 -4.0 229 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Dec 20 166 Elon 81 74 Virginia Tech 82   
Sat, Dec 20 205 Northeastern 83 75 Syracuse 91   
Sat, Dec 20 265 Howard 67 120 UNC Wilmington 66   
Sun, Dec 21 110 Hofstra 74 160 Quinnipiac 66   
Sun, Dec 21 169 College of Charleston 85 208 Northern Kentucky 74   
Sun, Dec 21 157 Marist 70 246 Stony Brook 51   
Sun, Dec 21 225 Campbell 50 96 Minnesota 78   
Sun, Dec 21 315 Lehigh 62 224 Monmouth 76   
Sun, Dec 21 274 Drexel 74 342 Maine 56   
Mon, Dec 22 205 Northeastern 77 119 Rhode Island 85   
Mon, Dec 22 250 Sacred Heart 47 128 Towson 72   
Tue, Dec 23 225 Campbell 102 283 Green Bay 79   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Hofstra 2.9 32.3 21.7 15.8 10.6 7.2 4.8 3.2 1.9 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1
William & Mary 3.2 29.3 20.8 15.2 11.3 8.0 5.6 3.9 2.6 1.7 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1
UNC Wilmington 3.4 24.4 20.4 16.7 12.4 8.8 6.3 4.1 2.7 1.8 1.2 0.6 0.4 0.2
Towson 3.7 21.9 18.4 15.9 13.3 10.1 7.0 5.0 3.3 2.3 1.4 0.8 0.5 0.2
Elon 5.7 6.4 8.8 10.9 11.7 12.4 11.6 10.3 8.6 6.9 5.2 3.6 2.3 1.1
College of Charleston 5.6 7.1 8.9 11.3 12.5 12.9 11.5 9.9 8.1 6.2 4.7 3.5 2.2 1.1
Northeastern 7.7 1.6 3.1 4.8 6.7 8.8 10.0 11.3 11.0 11.1 10.5 9.0 7.4 4.7
Monmouth 8.5 0.8 1.9 3.2 4.9 6.6 8.6 10.4 11.5 11.9 11.9 11.3 10.1 6.9
Campbell 7.8 1.5 2.9 4.6 6.3 8.8 10.1 11.2 11.6 11.0 10.4 8.9 7.6 5.1
Hampton 8.4 1.1 2.1 3.6 5.2 6.8 8.5 10.4 10.9 11.8 11.8 11.1 9.6 7.1
Stony Brook 8.6 0.9 1.9 3.0 4.7 6.6 8.3 10.1 11.0 11.1 11.8 11.7 10.9 8.0
Drexel 9.3 0.3 1.0 1.9 3.1 4.6 6.6 8.3 9.4 11.2 12.8 14.1 14.3 12.3
N.C. A&T 10.7 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.2 3.1 4.4 6.0 7.8 10.3 13.7 19.5 30.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Hofstra 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.6 3.1 5.5 8.7 12.4 15.1 16.1 15.1 11.3 6.9 2.9 0.6
William & Mary 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.1 4.0 6.5 10.0 12.1 14.9 15.2 13.8 10.4 6.1 2.6 0.6
UNC Wilmington 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.6 4.3 7.3 10.9 13.6 15.9 15.3 12.5 8.7 4.9 1.8 0.4
Towson 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.6 3.1 5.6 8.3 11.9 14.3 15.0 14.1 11.5 7.7 4.2 1.4 0.3
Elon 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.7 3.6 6.0 9.4 12.7 14.3 14.3 13.3 10.3 7.1 3.7 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0
College of Charleston 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 3.3 5.7 8.8 12.0 14.1 15.1 13.6 10.8 7.1 4.4 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0
Northeastern 8 - 10 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.9 5.8 9.2 12.6 14.7 14.7 13.2 10.4 7.3 4.3 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Monmouth 7 - 11 0.1 0.5 1.8 4.2 8.1 11.7 14.5 15.5 14.7 11.5 8.0 5.0 2.8 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Campbell 8 - 10 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.0 5.9 9.3 12.6 14.8 14.9 13.5 10.1 7.0 4.2 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Hampton 7 - 11 0.1 0.6 1.7 4.4 7.8 11.5 14.0 15.0 14.2 11.7 8.2 5.5 3.0 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Stony Brook 7 - 11 0.1 0.7 2.3 4.7 8.5 12.0 14.5 15.1 14.0 10.9 7.8 4.8 2.6 1.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Drexel 6 - 12 0.2 1.3 3.7 7.1 11.2 14.5 16.0 14.8 11.8 8.5 5.7 3.0 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
N.C. A&T 5 - 13 1.4 5.1 9.8 13.6 16.1 15.6 12.9 10.2 6.6 4.2 2.4 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Hofstra 32.3% 20.8 8.7 2.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
William & Mary 29.3% 19.0 7.7 2.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
UNC Wilmington 24.4% 15.0 7.0 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Towson 21.9% 13.2 6.3 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Elon 6.4% 3.3 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.0
College of Charleston 7.1% 3.5 2.3 1.0 0.2 0.1
Northeastern 1.6% 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Monmouth 0.8% 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Campbell 1.5% 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
Hampton 1.1% 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
Stony Brook 0.9% 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
Drexel 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
N.C. A&T 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Hofstra 22.5% 22.5% 0.0% 13   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.7 9.8 8.8 1.9 0.2 0.0 77.5 0.0%
William & Mary 19.4% 19.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 7.1 8.3 2.5 0.3 0.0 80.6 0.0%
UNC Wilmington 18.3% 18.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 4.0 8.5 4.4 0.8 0.1 81.7 0.0%
Towson 15.6% 15.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.7 7.1 3.6 0.7 0.1 84.4 0.0%
Elon 6.9% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 2.4 2.4 1.2 0.3 93.1 0.0%
College of Charleston 6.8% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.7 1.5 0.4 93.2 0.0%
Northeastern 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.0 0.7 97.1 0.0%
Monmouth 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.6 98.2 0.0%
Campbell 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.5 98.0 0.0%
Hampton 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 98.6 0.0%
Stony Brook 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 98.7 0.0%
Drexel 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 99.3 0.0%
N.C. A&T 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 99.6 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Hofstra 22.5% 0.0% 22.5% 2.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
William & Mary 19.4% 0.0% 19.4% 2.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Wilmington 18.3% 0.0% 18.3% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Towson 15.6% 0.0% 15.6% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elon 6.9% 0.2% 6.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
College of Charleston 6.8% 0.2% 6.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northeastern 2.9% 0.4% 2.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Monmouth 1.8% 0.3% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Campbell 2.0% 0.3% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hampton 1.4% 0.4% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stony Brook 1.3% 0.1% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drexel 0.8% 0.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
N.C. A&T 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 99.1% 1.0 0.9 99.1 0.0
2nd Round 8.6% 0.1 91.4 8.6 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 1.3% 0.0 98.7 1.3
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0