Hofstra
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +2.9 117
Expected Predictive Rating +2.0 131
Pace 63.6 317
Improvement +0.4 171

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ #105 C B C C D
Defense C #154 B C- D C B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% 341 56% 214 -4.8 337
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 107 34% 301 +0.5 148
Three Pointers 45% 108 37% 41 +4.3 44
1st FG Attempt 1.02 176 +0.0 175
Second Chance 34.6% 68 1.08 99 0.37 63
Turnovers 16.7% 168
Freethrows 0.29 249 77% 42 0.22 184
Total Offense +2.5 105

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 316 51% 41 +5.3 32
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 70 36% 103 -0.9 257
Three Pointers 43% 115 34% 180 -1.0 230
1st FG Attempt 0.95 61 +3.5 61
Second Chance 30.6% 182 1.07 252 0.33 222
Turnovers 14.6% 320
Freethrows 0.31 191 72% 189 0.22 193
Total Defense +0.4 154

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -1.0 304 -0.8 56
Shot Type Accuracy +1.0 136 -2.7 72
Possession Length 18.5 299 17.4 199
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 349 0.13 41
Improvement +1.3 #113 -0.9 #244

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23% 26% 20%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.7 12.5 12.9
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 98% 100% 97%
Conference Champion 6% 11% 1%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round23% 26% 20%
Second Round2% 2% 1%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: College of Charleston (Away) - 50.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 1
Quad 21 - 22 - 3
Quad 36 - 58 - 8
Quad 411 - 419 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 52 @Central Florida L 78 - 82 16% -1  29% 0 - 1 B +10 B- +4 C+ C C+ B +6 B+ D- A+
 Fri, Nov 7 247 @Iona L 73 - 81 67% -14  0% 0 - 2 D -10 D- -7 C D+ F+ C- -2 C D B
 Fri, Nov 14 324 @Bucknell W 83 - 77 83% +2  56% 1 - 2 C -1 C +0 C+ F+ B- C- -2 C+ F B
 Wed, Nov 19 148 @Temple L 76 - 81 47% -1  31% 1 - 3 C -1 C +1 B- F+ C+ C- -3 F+ A+ B
 Fri, Nov 28 226 La Salle W 63 - 58 73% +3  82% 2 - 3 C +2 F+ -9 C- F D A +11 A- D B+
 Sat, Nov 29 182 Merrimack W 78 - 58 66% +12  93% 3 - 3 A +19 B +7 B D D A +13 B+ A+ D-
 Sun, Nov 30 185 @Penn W 77 - 60 56% +4  58% 4 - 3 A +18 B +6 B+ A F A+ +13 A+ F+ D
 Wed, Dec 3 200 @Columbia L 70 - 72 59% -6  0% 4 - 4 C -2 C- -2 D A- D C +0 D+ A D-
 Sun, Dec 7 99 @Pittsburgh W 80 - 73 30% +7  86% 5 - 4 A- +15 A+ +19 A+ C- A+ C- -3 F A C
 Sat, Dec 13 67 @Syracuse W 70 - 69 21% +0  42% 6 - 4 B+ +12 A +14 A+ B B C -1 B F C
 Sun, Dec 21 195 Quinnipiac W 74 - 66 78% +2  60% 7 - 4 C+ +3 C +1 F A+ D C+ +2 A+ F F
 Mon, Dec 29 192 Campbell W 86 - 72 78% +12  81% 8 - 4 1 - 0 B +9 A- +11 C+ A+ F+ C -1 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 3 217 @Drexel W 70 - 67 61% +8  97% 9 - 4 2 - 0 C+ +3 A- +10 B- A+ C+ D -7 B C- F
 Thu, Jan 8 172 @Towson W 78 - 67 53% +7  79% 10 - 4 3 - 0 B+ +13 A- +10 D+ A+ A B +4 B+ D B
 Sat, Jan 10 208 Monmouth W 67 - 64 OT 79% -1  49% 11 - 4 4 - 0 C- -3 F -10 F D+ B B+ +7 A+ B+ C-
 Thu, Jan 15 213 @Stony Brook L 71 - 76 61% -6  10% 11 - 5 4 - 1 D+ -5 A- +9 C+ C A- F -15 F+ D- F
 Sat, Jan 17 215 Elon L 85 - 89 80% -3  22% 11 - 6 4 - 2 D -10 B+ +8 A F+ D+ F -18 F B- F
 Thu, Jan 22 286 @N.C. A&T L 78 - 79 75% +5  66% 11 - 7 4 - 3 D+ -5 B- +5 D+ C- A F+ -11 C+ F F
 Sat, Jan 24 145 @William & Mary L 82 - 89 46% -5  27% 11 - 8 4 - 4 C- -3 A +11 C- A- A+ F -14 C- F F
 Thu, Jan 29 156 College of Charleston L 64 - 66 72% +3  73% 11 - 9 4 - 5 D+ -5 F -11 F B- C- B +6 A+ F+ F+
 Sat, Jan 31 208 @Monmouth W 73 - 57 60% +10  99% 12 - 9 5 - 5 A- +16 B +6 B+ A+ F A +12 A- A+ F
 Thu, Feb 5 269 Northeastern W 80 - 63 87% +10  98% 13 - 9 6 - 5 B- +8 C+ +2 D+ B B B+ +7 D+ A+ C+
 Sat, Feb 7 172 Towson W 71 - 49 74% +18  95% 14 - 9 7 - 5 A +18 B +6 C B+ B+ A+ +16 B+ A+ C+
 Thu, Feb 12 156 @College of Charleston W 73 - 72 50%
 Sat, Feb 14 113 @UNC Wilmington L 69 - 72 38%
 Thu, Feb 19 248 Hampton W 74 - 63 84%
 Sat, Feb 21 269 @Northeastern W 80 - 74 71%
 Sat, Feb 28 213 Stony Brook W 74 - 65 80%
 Tue, Mar 3 217 Drexel W 70 - 61 80%
Totals 18 - 11 11 - 7 +3 C+ +2 C B C C +0 B C- D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ C- D+ B C+ 31% 24% 45% D C B B- B C C- B+ C C B+ B- C B- 33% 24% 43% B B C C- C- D C C C
1.12 56% 34% 37% +1 -1 1.02 35% 1.1 .37 17% .29 77% .22 1.08 51% 36% 34% -3 -1 0.95 31% 1.1 .33 15% .31 72% .21
Nov
3		 Central Florida B- A D+ F+ C+ 41% 22% 37% C C+ A F C C+ A A+ A+ B A- A+ C- A 53% 9% 38% F B+ F B D- A+ F A+ F
1.07 70% 36% 28% +1 0 1.04 35% 0.7 .24 16% .40 88% .35 1.13 50% 25% 35% -5 +3 0.98 47% 1.1 .53 22% .63 61% .39
Nov
7		 Iona D- B+ F F+ C- 45% 13% 42% B C C+ F D+ F+ B- F D+ C- D A+ D+ C 37% 15% 48% C- C F+ C D B F B- F
0.98 67% 29% 27% -1 +1 1.02 37% 0.8 .29 20% .30 56% .17 1.08 63% 13% 36% -1 +1 1.02 31% 1.0 .31 20% .45 67% .30
Nov
14		 Bucknell C C B- A+ B+ 20% 33% 47% F C+ D+ F F+ B- A+ F A+ C- F A A C 31% 19% 50% B- C+ F F F B F F F
1.11 60% 44% 43% +9 -3 1.14 29% 0.8 .24 16% .51 66% .34 1.03 67% 22% 25% -7 0 0.88 32% 1.6 .53 23% .36 86% .31
Nov
19		 Temple C A C+ B- B+ 25% 30% 45% F B- D+ F F+ C+ F A+ D C- F B F F 33% 33% 35% A+ F+ A A+ A+ B F C- F
1.09 71% 41% 36% +6 -2 1.09 26% 0.8 .21 14% .22 85% .19 1.17 73% 33% 44% +9 -2 1.15 21% 0.7 .14 16% .53 77% .41
Nov
28		 La Salle F+ D A- C C 28% 26% 46% F+ C- C- F F D D F F+ A A+ D- A+ A 52% 23% 25% D- A- C- D- D B+ A+ D+ A
0.95 50% 46% 35% +1 -1 1.00 28% 0.7 .19 20% .21 55% .11 0.87 40% 45% 25% -11 +1 0.81 34% 1.1 .37 21% .23 75% .17
Nov
29		 Merrimack B A F A+ B 33% 24% 43% D+ B D D D D B- A+ A A A A+ C+ B+ 30% 11% 59% B- B+ B- A+ A+ D- A F A-
1.16 69% 8% 43% +2 -1 1.04 37% 0.9 .33 21% .38 85% .32 0.86 44% 17% 31% -9 +1 0.85 22% 0.4 .10 13% .24 86% .21
Nov
30		 Penn B A+ D- C A 43% 29% 29% D B+ B- A+ A F A A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 27% 50% 23% A+ A+ D+ F F+ D B- C C+
1.15 83% 33% 33% +9 -1 1.19 35% 1.3 .43 22% .35 94% .33 0.90 29% 23% 25% -18 -5 0.56 33% 1.2 .40 15% .30 71% .21
Dec
3		 Columbia C- F B+ B D- 50% 18% 32% B D C- A+ A- D A D- B C C B- F D- 29% 24% 47% A+ D+ B+ A+ A D- C- D+ D+
1.06 40% 44% 38% -6 +1 0.92 29% 1.4 .40 15% .39 68% .27 1.09 57% 33% 43% +5 -1 1.10 31% 0.6 .20 18% .30 75% .22
Dec
7		 Pittsburgh A+ B A+ A+ A+ 47% 17% 36% B A+ B F+ C- A+ B B- B+ C- A+ F F F 26% 23% 51% A F B+ A+ A C F F F
1.30 64% 50% 47% +12 +1 1.28 31% 0.8 .23 11% .33 78% .26 1.19 45% 60% 45% +11 -1 1.21 31% 0.8 .23 16% .43 86% .37
Dec
13		 Syracuse A D+ F A+ A+ 38% 27% 35% D A+ C- A+ B B F A+ F C C+ F B B 32% 21% 47% B+ B F C+ F C C+ A+ B+
1.20 50% 15% 65% +7 -1 1.15 30% 1.4 .41 17% .12 100% .12 1.19 60% 50% 32% +2 -1 1.04 44% 1.0 .44 15% .33 56% .18
Dec
21		 Quinnipiac C F C- F F 38% 12% 50% B- F A+ A+ A+ D A+ B- A+ C+ A- C- A+ A+ 37% 21% 42% C- A+ B+ F F F D- D- F+
1.10 42% 33% 24% -14 +1 0.76 48% 1.3 .64 19% .42 74% .31 0.98 47% 36% 14% -17 0 0.67 27% 1.6 .44 12% .34 75% .25
Dec
29		 Campbell A- B D B C+ 38% 19% 44% C C+ A+ A+ A+ F+ B+ D- B- C C A+ A+ A+ 46% 14% 40% C A+ C+ F F F C+ B B-
1.30 67% 33% 38% +5 0 1.13 50% 1.8 .89 21% .36 68% .25 1.09 57% 14% 20% -12 +1 0.80 32% 1.5 .46 11% .37 68% .25
Jan
3		 Drexel A- D- A+ B- B- 41% 20% 39% B- B- C+ A+ A+ C+ B- D- C+ D A- B- D+ B+ 44% 18% 38% D B C D C- F F A- D-
1.18 50% 56% 35% +1 0 1.05 33% 1.6 .53 15% .34 71% .24 1.13 45% 33% 37% -5 +1 0.94 29% 1.0 .29 5% .36 60% .21
Jan
8		 Towson A- C+ F B+ C- 27% 30% 43% F+ D+ B A+ A+ A A+ A A+ B A+ A F B- 16% 45% 39% A+ B+ C- D- D B F F+ F
1.16 58% 23% 37% -2 -2 0.93 31% 1.5 .47 12% .54 78% .42 1.00 25% 30% 40% -5 -5 0.82 37% 0.9 .34 19% .46 76% .35
Jan
10		 Monmouth F F D- F F 27% 27% 46% F F C+ F+ D+ B A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ C+ A+ 29% 29% 42% B+ A+ A+ F B+ C- F D- F
0.94 31% 31% 23% -17 -2 0.65 35% 0.8 .26 17% .56 88% .49 0.90 40% 20% 32% -12 -2 0.75 20% 1.3 .24 17% .39 78% .30
Jan
15		 Stony Brook A- D F A+ B- 27% 21% 52% D C+ B D C A- F A+ D- F C- C F F 33% 20% 47% B F+ F C D- F D+ B C-
1.20 54% 20% 44% +3 -1 1.06 37% 0.8 .29 12% .21 82% .17 1.28 56% 40% 43% +7 0 1.14 36% 0.9 .33 12% .29 67% .19
Jan
17		 Elon B+ D A+ A+ A+ 17% 31% 52% F A B F F+ D+ A B+ A F D- B- F F 52% 7% 41% D- F C+ B B- F F F F
1.28 50% 53% 48% +14 -3 1.25 38% 0.7 .26 17% .38 76% .29 1.34 67% 33% 42% +9 +3 1.26 32% 0.9 .29 11% .45 81% .37
Jan
22		 N.C. A&T B- C- F+ B+ C 17% 30% 53% F D+ C- C- C- A C+ A- B F+ B F A- C- 13% 39% 48% A+ C+ F F F F F C F
1.18 56% 31% 39% +2 -3 1.00 26% 1.0 .26 9% .33 75% .25 1.20 50% 50% 27% -1 -4 0.91 44% 1.3 .56 14% .61 74% .46
Jan
24		 William & Mary A F F A+ C- 35% 13% 53% C C- A- B A- A+ D A+ C+ F C A+ F D 27% 11% 63% B+ C- F B- F F A+ F A
1.22 47% 14% 41% -1 +1 1.02 39% 1.1 .41 12% .25 87% .22 1.33 60% 17% 40% +4 0 1.11 38% 1.1 .43 7% .21 85% .18
Jan
29		 College of Charleston F F F F+ F 32% 23% 45% C+ F A D- B- C- F F F B A+ D A+ A+ 47% 24% 29% D+ A+ F C F+ F+ C- A+ B+
0.94 44% 23% 28% -12 -1 0.77 41% 0.9 .35 15% .09 40% .03 0.96 42% 42% 13% -16 0 0.71 38% 1.1 .40 13% .37 59% .22
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Monmouth B C+ A+ A A 23% 27% 50% F B+ B+ A+ A+ F D- A D A A- F A+ B 25% 45% 30% A+ A- A+ A- A+ F A+ C+ A+
1.12 60% 50% 41% +9 -2 1.16 40% 1.6 .64 29% .22 80% .17 0.88 46% 46% 19% -6 -4 0.81 19% 0.9 .16 9% .19 73% .14
Feb
5		 Northeastern C+ A- C D+ C- 32% 26% 42% F+ D+ B+ C B B F+ A- D B+ B- F D+ D- 27% 27% 46% A+ D+ A+ C A+ C+ B- B B
1.21 71% 43% 32% +4 -1 1.08 40% 1.0 .40 15% .27 80% .21 0.95 54% 54% 36% +5 -2 1.08 10% 1.0 .10 18% .26 64% .17
Feb
7		 Towson B F F+ A+ B- 25% 33% 42% F C B+ B- B+ B+ C+ B B- A+ A+ C+ F A- 39% 30% 32% C- B+ A A+ A+ C+ F A+ D+
1.15 42% 31% 45% +1 -3 0.98 32% 1.1 .35 13% .30 75% .22 0.79 24% 38% 43% -9 -1 0.82 28% 0.3 .07 18% .37 58% .22



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 2.1 4.0 6.1 1st
2nd 0.1 6.5 18.1 4.8 29.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 3.3 19.5 6.5 0.1 29.4 3rd
4th 0.1 9.0 6.6 0.0 15.8 4th
5th 1.4 7.2 0.7 9.3 5th
6th 0.0 3.0 2.1 0.0 5.2 6th
7th 0.2 2.3 0.1 2.7 7th
8th 0.6 0.8 1.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 0.1 0.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.1 1.5 7.7 21.8 33.4 26.7 8.8 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 44.9% 4.0    1.2 2.3 0.4
12-6 7.8% 2.1    0.1 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.1% 6.1 1.3 3.1 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 8.8% 35.4% 35.4% 12.1 0.4 2.3 0.5 5.7
12-6 26.7% 28.9% 28.9% 12.5 0.1 3.8 3.6 0.2 19.0
11-7 33.4% 23.8% 23.8% 12.8 2.3 4.7 0.9 0.0 25.5
10-8 21.8% 15.1% 15.1% 13.1 0.6 2.0 0.7 0.0 18.5
9-9 7.7% 10.3% 10.3% 13.3 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 6.9
8-10 1.5% 10.3% 10.3% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.3
7-11 0.1% 0.1
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 23.0% 23.0% 0.0% 12.7 77.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.1% 100.0% 12.1 11.2 72.4 16.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.2%