Hofstra
Colonial Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.3#151
Expected Predictive Rating+4.8#102
Pace63.5#314
Improvement-1.4#275

Offense
Total Offense-2.7#243
First Shot+0.6#160
After Offensive Rebound-3.3#337
Layup/Dunks-0.7#202
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#229
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#95
Freethrows-0.6#218
Improvement-2.7#346

Defense
Total Defense+2.9#98
First Shot+2.1#110
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#108
Layups/Dunks+2.3#91
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#13
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#295
Freethrows+0.2#175
Improvement+1.3#83
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.9% 13.7% 9.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.3 13.8
.500 or above 88.9% 94.3% 81.6%
.500 or above in Conference 84.0% 87.2% 79.7%
Conference Champion 16.4% 19.1% 12.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.5% 1.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round11.9% 13.7% 9.4%
Second Round1.0% 1.3% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Quinnipiac (Away) - 57.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 38 - 59 - 8
Quad 410 - 419 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 258   Iona W 90-76 79%     1 - 0 +5.7 +11.8 -6.7
  Nov 13, 2024 116   Seton Hall W 49-48 40%     2 - 0 +3.8 -7.9 +11.9
  Nov 16, 2024 191   @ Massachusetts W 75-71 OT 45%     3 - 0 +5.7 +0.8 +4.8
  Nov 19, 2024 63   @ Florida St. L 61-79 14%     3 - 1 -6.2 -4.0 -2.4
  Nov 22, 2024 6   @ Houston L 44-80 3%     3 - 2 -13.9 -11.3 -6.5
  Nov 29, 2024 196   Rice W 68-63 OT 57%     4 - 2 +3.4 -8.1 +11.2
  Nov 30, 2024 286   Tarleton St. L 59-61 75%     4 - 3 -8.8 -5.8 -3.2
  Dec 01, 2024 109   Arkansas St. W 68-66 37%     5 - 3 +5.8 +1.9 +4.0
  Dec 09, 2024 181   @ Norfolk St. W 80-67 43%     6 - 3 +15.0 +14.3 +1.8
  Dec 15, 2024 119   Temple L 42-60 52%     6 - 4 -18.4 -26.8 +7.0
  Dec 29, 2024 245   @ Quinnipiac W 69-67 57%    
  Jan 02, 2025 222   William & Mary W 77-71 72%    
  Jan 04, 2025 160   @ Northeastern L 64-67 41%    
  Jan 09, 2025 121   College of Charleston W 70-69 52%    
  Jan 11, 2025 134   UNC Wilmington W 68-66 56%    
  Jan 16, 2025 213   @ Towson L 60-61 50%    
  Jan 20, 2025 146   @ Drexel L 61-64 38%    
  Jan 23, 2025 219   Delaware W 74-68 70%    
  Jan 25, 2025 295   Campbell W 69-59 83%    
  Jan 30, 2025 179   @ Elon L 64-66 44%    
  Feb 01, 2025 295   @ Campbell W 66-62 66%    
  Feb 06, 2025 160   Northeastern W 67-64 62%    
  Feb 08, 2025 307   Stony Brook W 72-61 85%    
  Feb 13, 2025 222   @ William & Mary W 75-74 51%    
  Feb 15, 2025 266   @ Hampton W 65-62 60%    
  Feb 20, 2025 272   Monmouth W 71-62 80%    
  Feb 22, 2025 219   @ Delaware L 70-71 49%    
  Feb 27, 2025 307   @ Stony Brook W 69-64 68%    
  Mar 01, 2025 321   N.C. A&T W 78-66 87%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.6 4.8 4.6 2.7 0.9 0.2 16.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.5 5.9 3.9 1.1 0.1 15.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 3.0 6.1 3.5 0.5 0.0 13.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 5.9 3.6 0.5 0.0 12.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 4.3 4.1 0.7 0.0 9.8 5th
6th 0.2 2.9 4.7 1.1 0.0 9.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 4.1 1.6 0.1 7.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.9 2.2 0.3 0.0 5.8 8th
9th 0.1 1.5 2.2 0.4 0.0 4.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.7 0.0 2.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.8 0.1 2.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 1.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.3 4.5 7.3 10.3 13.0 14.8 14.4 12.5 9.3 5.7 2.8 0.9 0.2 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.9    0.9 0.0
16-2 95.6% 2.7    2.3 0.3 0.0
15-3 80.7% 4.6    3.2 1.3 0.1 0.0
14-4 51.9% 4.8    2.2 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-5 20.5% 2.6    0.6 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0
12-6 3.5% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.4% 16.4 9.4 4.8 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 50.4% 49.6% 0.8% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.7%
17-1 0.9% 41.6% 41.6% 12.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5
16-2 2.8% 28.4% 28.4% 12.5 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.0
15-3 5.7% 26.8% 26.8% 12.8 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 4.2
14-4 9.3% 21.3% 21.3% 13.2 0.3 1.1 0.6 0.0 7.3
13-5 12.5% 18.1% 18.1% 13.5 0.1 1.0 1.0 0.1 10.2
12-6 14.4% 13.9% 13.9% 13.8 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.3 0.0 12.4
11-7 14.8% 9.1% 9.1% 14.1 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 13.5
10-8 13.0% 5.2% 5.2% 14.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 12.3
9-9 10.3% 4.0% 4.0% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 9.9
8-10 7.3% 3.0% 3.0% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.0 7.1
7-11 4.5% 2.0% 2.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 4.4
6-12 2.3% 1.0% 1.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 2.3
5-13 1.1% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 1.1
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 11.9% 11.9% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.6 4.2 4.3 1.5 0.2 88.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 10.8 2.2 4.4 8.9 8.9 46.7 26.7 2.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%