Hofstra
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +2.2 #126
Expected Predictive Rating +2.9 #122
Pace 63.8 #315
Improvement -2.0 #276

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #106 C B- C B- D
Defense #185 B D+ D C- B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #338 1.18 #148 -4.0 #310
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #104 0.70 #268 +0.5 #152
Three Pointers 45% #106 1.12 #48 +4.3 #47
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #152 +0.9 #155
Freethrows 18.0 #148 77% #43 13.9 #106
Second Chance 33.6% #98 1.10 #117 0.37 #82
Turnovers 16.7% #193
Total Offense +2.7 #106

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #311 1.10 #104 +3.7 #65
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #82 0.67 #51 -0.2 #198
Three Pointers 43% #129 1.00 #157 -0.4 #197
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #79 +3.0 #83
Freethrows 18.3 #233 74% #265 13.6 #253
Second Chance 30.8% #196 1.14 #293 0.35 #258
Turnovers 14.6% #289
Total Defense -0.5 #185

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.9% #304 -1.4% #68
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.9% #114 -4.8% #86
Possession Length 18.4 #280 17.6 #223
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 #356 0.12 #44
Improvement +2.3 #66 -4.3 #352

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.0% 22.8% 16.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.7 13.0
.500 or above 98.4% 99.6% 97.4%
.500 or above in Conference 92.7% 97.7% 89.1%
Conference Champion 18.0% 28.9% 10.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round19.0% 22.8% 16.3%
Second Round1.3% 1.8% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: William & Mary (Away) - 41.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 1
Quad 22 - 23 - 3
Quad 37 - 610 - 8
Quad 410 - 419 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 53 @Central Florida L 78 - 82 15% -1  0 - 1 +10 +8 B C- B- +2 A D- A+
 Fri, Nov 7 227 @Iona L 73 - 81 62% -14  0 - 2 -9 -3 C D F -5 C D- A-
 Fri, Nov 14 319 @Bucknell W 83 - 77 80% +7  1 - 2 -1 +4 B- F C -5 C- F A+
 Wed, Nov 19 140 @Temple L 76 - 81 42% -1  1 - 3 -1 +5 B F C -6 F A+ B-
 Fri, Nov 28 197 La Salle W 63 - 58 68% +3  2 - 3 +2 -8 D+ F F +10 A+ D+ A-
 Sat, Nov 29 208 Merrimack W 78 - 58 69% +12  3 - 3 +17 +8 B D- F +9 B+ A+ D
 Sun, Nov 30 182 @Penn W 77 - 60 53% +4  4 - 3 +19 +8 A- A+ F +12 A+ D- D+
 Wed, Dec 3 180 @Columbia L 70 - 72 52% -6  4 - 4 -0 +1 D- A+ D- -2 C- A+ D-
 Sun, Dec 7 91 @Pittsburgh W 80 - 73 26% +7  5 - 4 +16 +21 A+ C- A+ -5 F A+ C+
 Sat, Dec 13 67 @Syracuse W 70 - 69 20% +0  6 - 4 +12 +17 A+ A+ B- -5 B- F C
 Sun, Dec 21 175 Quinnipiac W 74 - 66 73% +2  7 - 4 +4 +4 F A+ D +1 A+ F F
 Mon, Dec 29 190 Campbell W 86 - 72 75% +12  8 - 4 1 - 0 +9 +14 B- A+ F -4 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 3 203 @Drexel W 70 - 67 57% +8  9 - 4 2 - 0 +3 +12 B- A+ C+ -9 B C- F
 Thu, Jan 8 157 @Towson W 78 - 67 46% +7  10 - 4 3 - 0 +14 +13 D+ A+ A+ +2 B- C A
 Sat, Jan 10 202 Monmouth W 67 - 64 OT 77% -1  11 - 4 4 - 0 -3 -7 F C- C+ +5 A+ A- C
 Thu, Jan 15 242 @Stony Brook L 71 - 76 64% -6  11 - 5 4 - 1 -6 +10 C C A -17 F F F
 Sat, Jan 17 184 Elon L 85 - 89 75% -3  11 - 6 4 - 2 -9 +11 A+ F D -19 F B F
 Thu, Jan 22 304 @N.C. A&T L 78 - 79 76% +5  11 - 7 4 - 3 -6 +7 D C A- -13 C F F
 Sat, Jan 24 138 @William & Mary L 77 - 79 42%
 Thu, Jan 29 164 College of Charleston W 77 - 71 70%
 Sat, Jan 31 202 @Monmouth W 70 - 68 57%
 Thu, Feb 5 259 Northeastern W 82 - 72 84%
 Sat, Feb 7 157 Towson W 69 - 64 68%
 Thu, Feb 12 164 @College of Charleston L 74 - 75 48%
 Sat, Feb 14 125 @UNC Wilmington L 68 - 71 37%
 Thu, Feb 19 230 Hampton W 73 - 64 80%
 Sat, Feb 21 259 @Northeastern W 79 - 75 66%
 Sat, Feb 28 242 Stony Brook W 75 - 65 81%
 Tue, Mar 3 203 Drexel W 70 - 62 76%
Totals 18 - 11 11 - 7 +2 +3 C B- C +0 B D+ D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 3.6 7.6 5.3 1.2 18.0 1st
2nd 0.1 4.9 11.4 6.1 0.9 23.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.9 9.8 5.1 0.3 17.2 3rd
4th 0.3 5.6 6.3 0.6 0.0 12.9 4th
5th 0.0 1.6 6.6 1.2 0.0 9.5 5th
6th 0.2 4.0 2.6 0.1 6.8 6th
7th 1.2 3.5 0.4 5.1 7th
8th 0.1 2.0 1.1 0.0 3.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.2 2.0 9th
10th 0.1 0.9 0.4 1.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.7 5.2 10.7 17.2 22.6 20.7 14.0 6.3 1.2 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 1.2    1.1 0.1
14-4 84.9% 5.3    4.0 1.3 0.0
13-5 54.1% 7.6    3.1 3.4 1.0 0.1 0.0
12-6 17.4% 3.6    0.4 1.3 1.2 0.6 0.1
11-7 1.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 18.0% 18.0 8.6 6.2 2.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 1.2% 39.8% 39.8% 11.6 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.7
14-4 6.3% 33.0% 33.0% 12.3 0.1 1.4 0.6 0.0 4.2
13-5 14.0% 27.3% 27.3% 12.6 0.0 1.8 1.8 0.2 10.2
12-6 20.7% 24.6% 24.6% 12.8 0.0 1.5 2.9 0.6 0.0 15.6
11-7 22.6% 17.8% 17.8% 13.1 0.7 2.4 0.9 0.0 18.6
10-8 17.2% 12.8% 12.8% 13.3 0.2 1.3 0.7 0.0 15.0
9-9 10.7% 8.1% 8.1% 13.6 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 9.8
8-10 5.2% 7.0% 7.0% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 4.8
7-11 1.7% 5.2% 5.2% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.6
6-12 0.4% 1.4% 1.4% 15.0 0.0 0.4
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 19.0% 19.0% 0.0% 12.9 81.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 11.6 39.8 58.2 2.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%