Stony Brook
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.2#318
Expected Predictive Rating-10.7#329
Pace63.8#300
Improvement+2.5#72

Offense
Total Offense-3.1#254
First Shot-4.8#308
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#89
Layup/Dunks-3.6#303
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#133
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#261
Freethrows+0.6#134
Improvement+1.4#110

Defense
Total Defense-6.1#338
First Shot-4.3#307
After Offensive Rebounds-1.8#315
Layups/Dunks-4.7#332
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#38
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#295
Freethrows+1.4#89
Improvement+1.1#121
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 23.7% 10.2% 28.7%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Towson (Home) - 27.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 92 - 12
Quad 45 - 127 - 25


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 21   @ Marquette L 62-102 1%     0 - 1 -21.8 -1.1 -20.9
  Nov 07, 2024 225   @ Central Michigan W 73-72 22%     1 - 1 +0.0 +3.2 -3.1
  Nov 11, 2024 81   @ George Mason L 56-94 5%     1 - 2 -28.2 -7.3 -21.2
  Nov 20, 2024 69   Yale L 64-86 9%     1 - 3 -16.6 -7.8 -8.7
  Nov 23, 2024 237   @ Columbia L 63-82 24%     1 - 4 -21.0 -12.3 -9.3
  Nov 27, 2024 214   @ Brown L 54-77 20%     1 - 5 -23.4 -16.4 -8.4
  Dec 01, 2024 185   Norfolk St. L 66-77 30%     1 - 6 -14.8 -4.1 -11.6
  Dec 07, 2024 277   Air Force L 61-69 39%     1 - 7 -14.4 -14.3 -0.2
  Dec 14, 2024 303   @ Rider W 72-55 36%     2 - 7 +11.5 +9.7 +4.9
  Dec 17, 2024 211   Marist L 66-68 35%     2 - 8 -7.1 +8.5 -16.1
  Dec 21, 2024 199   Maine W 74-72 31%     3 - 8 -2.2 +8.1 -10.2
  Dec 29, 2024 280   @ Albany L 70-77 31%     3 - 9 -11.1 -1.7 -9.7
  Jan 02, 2025 253   @ Monmouth L 56-78 27%     3 - 10 0 - 1 -24.8 -9.7 -18.5
  Jan 04, 2025 208   William & Mary L 76-83 34%     3 - 11 0 - 2 -11.9 +2.9 -15.2
  Jan 09, 2025 195   Drexel L 51-67 31%     3 - 12 0 - 3 -20.1 -8.6 -15.7
  Jan 11, 2025 206   Northeastern L 66-70 33%     3 - 13 0 - 4 -8.7 -7.1 -1.7
  Jan 16, 2025 232   @ Delaware L 74-84 24%     3 - 14 0 - 5 -11.6 -3.1 -8.6
  Jan 18, 2025 160   @ Towson L 49-53 13%     3 - 15 0 - 6 -1.1 -11.6 +9.7
  Jan 23, 2025 178   Campbell L 54-79 28%     3 - 16 0 - 7 -28.3 -11.4 -20.2
  Jan 25, 2025 333   N.C. A&T W 89-74 66%     4 - 16 1 - 7 +1.6 +10.4 -8.5
  Jan 30, 2025 131   @ College of Charleston L 74-81 11%     4 - 17 1 - 8 -2.8 +6.9 -10.2
  Feb 01, 2025 117   @ UNC Wilmington L 70-80 9%     4 - 18 1 - 9 -4.7 +1.7 -6.9
  Feb 06, 2025 160   Towson L 61-68 27%    
  Feb 08, 2025 174   @ Hofstra L 59-70 13%    
  Feb 13, 2025 253   Monmouth L 71-72 47%    
  Feb 15, 2025 206   @ Northeastern L 67-76 18%    
  Feb 20, 2025 287   @ Hampton L 66-71 30%    
  Feb 22, 2025 333   @ N.C. A&T L 75-76 45%    
  Feb 27, 2025 174   Hofstra L 61-67 30%    
  Mar 01, 2025 175   Elon L 66-72 30%    
Projected Record 6 - 24 3 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 0.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.0 1.3 10th
11th 0.1 1.1 2.2 0.4 3.7 11th
12th 0.7 5.8 7.5 2.1 0.1 16.2 12th
13th 2.4 15.9 25.8 18.6 4.9 0.4 67.9 13th
14th 4.6 4.1 1.4 0.1 0.0 10.2 14th
Total 7.0 20.0 27.9 24.6 13.5 5.4 1.5 0.3 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0% 0.0
8-10 0.3% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2
7-11 1.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.5
6-12 5.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 5.4
5-13 13.5% 13.5
4-14 24.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 24.6
3-15 27.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 27.8
2-16 20.0% 20.0
1-17 7.0% 7.0
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 5.1%