Stony Brook
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.6#222
Expected Predictive Rating+4.1#115
Pace64.3#314
Improvement-0.5#232

Offense
Total Offense-1.2#197
First Shot+0.4#167
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#272
Layup/Dunks-4.1#309
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#162
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#58
Freethrows-0.1#184
Improvement-0.9#252

Defense
Total Defense-2.5#250
First Shot-2.8#266
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#165
Layups/Dunks-1.1#212
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#177
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#137
Freethrows-3.5#338
Improvement+0.4#152
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.7% 3.7% 2.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.9 14.2
.500 or above 49.1% 67.6% 43.9%
.500 or above in Conference 41.1% 49.9% 38.6%
Conference Champion 2.2% 4.1% 1.7%
Last Place in Conference 9.1% 5.9% 10.0%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round2.6% 3.6% 2.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Duquesne (Away) - 21.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 34 - 85 - 12
Quad 410 - 415 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 326 Maine W 71-60 79%     1 - 0 -1.3 -3.7 +2.4
  Sat, Nov 15 73 @Yale L 79-86 10%     1 - 1 +3.7 +14.2 -11.2
  Thu, Nov 20 225 Brown W 80-70 62%     2 - 1 +3.2 +11.6 -8.0
  Mon, Nov 24 139 Pacific L 58-86 31%     2 - 2 -26.5 -11.0 -16.8
  Tue, Nov 25 218 Bethune-Cookman W 61-54 50%     3 - 2 +3.5 -7.2 +11.5
  Fri, Nov 28 143 @Loyola Marymount W 71-68 22%     4 - 2 +7.3 +5.1 +2.3
  Sat, Dec 6 135 @Duquesne L 71-79 22%    
  Tue, Dec 9 140 Columbia L 72-74 42%    
  Sat, Dec 13 309 Central Michigan W 75-67 76%    
  Wed, Dec 17 324 Albany W 75-66 79%    
  Sun, Dec 21 159 @Marist L 60-66 28%    
  Mon, Dec 29 212 @Hampton L 68-71 37%    
  Wed, Dec 31 118 @William & Mary L 72-82 18%    
  Sat, Jan 3 323 N.C. A&T W 76-67 78%    
  Thu, Jan 8 256 @Drexel L 67-68 45%    
  Sat, Jan 10 109 UNC Wilmington L 66-71 33%    
  Thu, Jan 15 136 Hofstra L 67-69 43%    
  Sat, Jan 17 180 College of Charleston W 72-71 53%    
  Thu, Jan 22 227 @Northeastern L 69-72 40%    
  Thu, Jan 29 224 @Campbell L 72-75 39%    
  Sat, Jan 31 223 @Elon L 75-78 40%    
  Thu, Feb 5 205 Monmouth W 72-70 57%    
  Sat, Feb 7 227 Northeastern W 72-69 61%    
  Thu, Feb 12 129 @Towson L 62-71 21%    
  Mon, Feb 16 256 Drexel W 70-65 66%    
  Sat, Feb 21 212 Hampton W 71-68 58%    
  Thu, Feb 26 205 @Monmouth L 69-73 37%    
  Sat, Feb 28 136 @Hofstra L 64-72 23%    
  Tue, Mar 3 129 Towson L 65-68 39%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 2.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 4.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.0 2.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 5.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.6 3.2 1.2 0.1 0.0 7.4 4th
5th 0.1 2.2 4.4 1.7 0.2 0.0 8.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 5.1 2.7 0.3 0.0 9.8 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 5.0 3.7 0.5 0.0 10.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 3.8 4.6 1.0 9.9 8th
9th 0.3 2.6 5.3 1.9 0.1 10.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.8 5.3 2.4 0.3 10.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.0 3.0 0.5 0.0 9.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.1 2.5 0.5 0.0 8.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.5 1.3 1.5 1.1 0.3 0.0 4.7 13th
Total 0.0 0.5 1.6 3.5 6.0 8.9 11.8 13.1 13.6 12.5 10.5 7.6 5.0 3.0 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 96.7% 0.2    0.2 0.0
15-3 74.6% 0.5    0.4 0.1 0.0
14-4 47.5% 0.7    0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 18.6% 0.6    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.9% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.2% 2.2 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.2% 29.5% 29.5% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.7% 22.3% 22.3% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
14-4 1.6% 14.3% 14.3% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.3
13-5 3.0% 9.9% 9.9% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.7
12-6 5.0% 9.4% 9.4% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 4.5
11-7 7.6% 4.9% 4.9% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 7.2
10-8 10.5% 3.8% 3.8% 14.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 10.1
9-9 12.5% 2.7% 2.7% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 12.2
8-10 13.6% 1.1% 1.1% 15.4 0.1 0.1 13.4
7-11 13.1% 0.5% 0.5% 15.5 0.0 0.0 13.1
6-12 11.8% 0.8% 0.8% 15.7 0.0 0.1 11.7
5-13 8.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 8.8
4-14 6.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 6.0
3-15 3.5% 3.5
2-16 1.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.6
1-17 0.5% 0.5
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 14.1 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.3 97.3 0.0%