Stony Brook
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.5 #242
Expected Predictive Rating -1.7 #198
Pace 62.9 #330
Improvement +0.6 #150

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #220 C D C- F C+
Defense #256 C- C+ D+ C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #268 0.98 #347 -5.0 #336
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #256 0.86 #54 -0.6 #207
Three Pointers 48% #48 1.09 #77 +5.4 #34
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #178 -0.2 #179
Freethrows 13.0 #345 73% #175 9.5 #337
Second Chance 28.5% #243 0.90 #339 0.26 #309
Turnovers 17.2% #227
Total Offense -1.9 #220

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #196 1.20 #238 -0.7 #201
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #224 0.65 #41 +1.6 #73
Three Pointers 43% #124 1.11 #304 -3.0 #300
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #244 -2.0 #244
Freethrows 18.1 #221 71% #103 12.8 #199
Second Chance 31.5% #225 0.95 #60 0.30 #122
Turnovers 15.0% #269
Total Defense -2.6 #256

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.5% #156 0.4% #200
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.9% #195 3.5% #247
Possession Length 18.0 #241 17.0 #127
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #338 0.18 #208
Improvement +1.4 #107 -0.8 #240

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.7% 2.5% 1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.7 15.1
.500 or above 42.3% 63.7% 33.0%
.500 or above in Conference 39.8% 61.3% 30.5%
Conference Champion 0.4% 1.1% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 2.2% 0.5% 3.0%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round1.6% 2.4% 1.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Campbell (Away) - 30.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 30 - 3
Quad 34 - 95 - 12
Quad 410 - 415 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 341 Maine W 71 - 60 83% +6  1 - 0 -4 -3 C- F A+ -0 C+ B+ F
 Sat, Nov 15 83 @Yale L 79 - 86 9% -7  1 - 1 +3 +15 A+ C F -12 F A- B-
 Thu, Nov 20 264 Brown W 80 - 70 66% +9  2 - 1 +1 +11 B+ B+ A- -9 F F C-
 Mon, Nov 24 132 Pacific L 58 - 86 28% -17  2 - 2 -26 -12 F F F -16 F A+ B-
 Tue, Nov 25 269 Bethune-Cookman W 61 - 54 56% -2  3 - 2 +1 -8 F F F +10 A+ A C
 Fri, Nov 28 155 @Loyola Marymount W 71 - 68 23% +6  4 - 2 +6 +5 B D C+ +1 C+ D- A+
 Sat, Dec 6 118 @Duquesne L 75 - 84 17% -8  4 - 3 -3 +6 D+ C A+ -9 F A+ D
 Tue, Dec 9 180 Columbia W 77 - 73 OT 49% +8  5 - 3 -0 -8 F B+ F +7 A A+ B-
 Sat, Dec 13 322 Central Michigan W 78 - 55 79% +16  6 - 3 +10 +6 A+ A+ F +6 A+ B F
 Wed, Dec 17 305 Albany L 55 - 71 74% -8  6 - 4 -27 -19 F F A -9 F A+ C-
 Sun, Dec 21 160 @Marist L 51 - 70 24% -13  6 - 5 -16 -12 F F C -6 C C- F
 Mon, Dec 29 230 @Hampton L 59 - 62 36% +2  6 - 6 0 - 1 -4 -7 B F F +3 C D+ C-
 Wed, Dec 31 138 @William & Mary L 57 - 76 20% -6  6 - 7 0 - 2 -15 -8 F F C+ -8 F A C+
 Sat, Jan 3 304 N.C. A&T W 81 - 80 74% +4  7 - 7 1 - 2 -10 +8 A- C- C -18 D+ F D+
 Thu, Jan 8 203 @Drexel L 37 - 56 32% -7  7 - 8 1 - 3 -19 -25 F C- B- +2 A+ F B+
 Sat, Jan 10 125 UNC Wilmington L 71 - 75 35% +8  7 - 9 1 - 4 -5 +3 C A+ D -8 F D+ C
 Thu, Jan 15 126 Hofstra W 76 - 71 36% +6  8 - 9 2 - 4 +4 +15 A+ C- A- -10 C- A- F
 Sat, Jan 17 164 College of Charleston W 112 - 106 2OT 46% +3  9 - 9 3 - 4 +3 +16 A+ D- A+ -14 C- F F
 Thu, Jan 22 259 @Northeastern W 95 - 80 41% +9  10 - 9 4 - 4 +13 +17 A+ C+ F -5 B+ F F
 Thu, Jan 29 190 @Campbell L 72 - 78 30%
 Sat, Jan 31 184 @Elon L 71 - 77 29%
 Thu, Feb 5 202 Monmouth W 68 - 67 54%
 Sat, Feb 7 259 Northeastern W 77 - 73 64%
 Thu, Feb 12 157 @Towson L 61 - 69 24%
 Mon, Feb 16 203 Drexel W 65 - 64 54%
 Sat, Feb 21 230 Hampton W 68 - 66 59%
 Thu, Feb 26 202 @Monmouth L 65 - 70 32%
 Sat, Feb 28 126 @Hofstra L 65 - 75 19%
 Tue, Mar 3 157 Towson L 64 - 66 44%
Totals 14 - 15 8 - 10 -4 -2 C D C- -3 C- C+ D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.0 2nd
3rd 1.2 2.2 0.5 0.0 3.9 3rd
4th 0.4 3.8 1.8 0.1 6.1 4th
5th 0.0 2.5 5.0 0.5 8.0 5th
6th 0.6 7.1 2.2 0.0 9.8 6th
7th 0.0 4.0 6.9 0.3 11.2 7th
8th 1.1 8.6 2.6 0.0 12.3 8th
9th 0.2 5.0 7.5 0.4 13.1 9th
10th 0.0 2.5 9.1 2.2 0.0 13.8 10th
11th 0.1 1.7 6.9 4.4 0.2 13.4 11th
12th 0.6 2.4 2.2 0.2 0.0 5.5 12th
13th 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 13th
Total 0.9 4.5 11.9 19.8 23.0 19.8 12.5 5.5 1.7 0.3 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 80.0% 0.0    0.0
13-5 40.9% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 14.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.3% 9.1% 9.1% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-6 1.7% 8.1% 8.1% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.5
11-7 5.5% 6.9% 6.9% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 5.2
10-8 12.5% 2.6% 2.6% 14.7 0.1 0.2 0.0 12.1
9-9 19.8% 1.5% 1.5% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 19.5
8-10 23.0% 1.1% 1.1% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 22.8
7-11 19.8% 0.8% 0.8% 15.8 0.0 0.1 19.6
6-12 11.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 11.9
5-13 4.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 4.5
4-14 0.9% 0.9
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 14.9 98.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%