Stony Brook
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -2.9 213
Expected Predictive Rating -0.7 175
Pace 63.9 310
Improvement +3.0 66

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- #226 C D C- D C+
Defense C #197 C- B- D+ C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 281 51% 331 -4.6 332
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 268 41% 75 -1.1 239
Three Pointers 49% 37 36% 88 +5.6 27
1st FG Attempt 1.02 179 +0.0 178
Second Chance 28.1% 250 0.91 324 0.25 303
Turnovers 18.0% 250
Freethrows 0.25 326 71% 224 0.18 327
Total Offense -2.2 226

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 219 60% 237 +0.0 183
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 206 31% 11 +1.7 62
Three Pointers 43% 109 36% 275 -2.6 299
1st FG Attempt 1.04 212 -1.0 214
Second Chance 31.3% 214 0.89 27 0.28 84
Turnovers 15.5% 265
Freethrows 0.30 171 72% 202 0.22 167
Total Defense -0.7 197

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.3 152 +0.0 171
Shot Type Accuracy -0.3 182 +0.9 217
Possession Length 18.6 305 17.0 145
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 333 0.17 189
Improvement +0.5 #149 +2.5 #55

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4% 6% 3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.4 14.7
.500 or above 85% 98% 79%
.500 or above in Conference 83% 97% 77%
Conference Champion 1% 1% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round4% 6% 3%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Towson (Away) - 31.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 35 - 66 - 10
Quad 411 - 417 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 338 Maine W 71 - 60 86% +6  99% 1 - 0 C- -4 D- -7 D F A+ B- +4 B B- F
 Sat, Nov 15 81 @Yale L 79 - 86 12% -7  3% 1 - 1 C+ +3 A +11 A+ B- F+ F+ -9 F+ B- C+
 Thu, Nov 20 278 Brown W 80 - 70 75% +9  89% 2 - 1 C +0 B+ +8 B A- A- D- -7 F D C-
 Mon, Nov 24 115 Pacific L 58 - 86 28% -17  4% 2 - 2 F -25 F -13 F+ D D F -14 F A+ C+
 Tue, Nov 25 227 Bethune-Cookman W 61 - 54 53% -2  33% 3 - 2 C+ +3 D- -8 D D- F A +12 A A- C
 Fri, Nov 28 151 @Loyola Marymount W 71 - 68 27% +6  69% 4 - 2 B- +6 C+ +2 B- D+ B- B +5 B- D- B+
 Sat, Dec 6 108 @Duquesne L 75 - 84 18% -8  4% 4 - 3 C- -2 B- +4 D+ C+ A+ D -6 F A+ D+
 Tue, Dec 9 200 Columbia W 77 - 73 OT 60% +8  91% 5 - 3 C -2 F -11 F+ B F A- +9 B+ A+ C+
 Sat, Dec 13 296 Central Michigan W 78 - 55 77% +16  97% 6 - 3 B+ +12 C+ +3 A+ A+ F A +11 A+ B+ F
 Wed, Dec 17 325 Albany L 55 - 71 83% -8  10% 6 - 4 F -29 F -24 F F A- D -7 F A+ D+
 Sun, Dec 21 163 @Marist L 51 - 70 29% -13  8% 6 - 5 F+ -16 F -15 F F C- C- -3 C+ D+ F
 Mon, Dec 29 248 @Hampton L 59 - 62 45% +2  72% 6 - 6 0 - 1 C- -5 F -10 B F F B +5 C D+ C-
 Wed, Dec 31 145 @William & Mary L 57 - 76 25% -6  5% 6 - 7 0 - 2 F+ -15 F -13 F F C- D+ -4 F A C+
 Sat, Jan 3 286 N.C. A&T W 81 - 80 76% +4  71% 7 - 7 1 - 2 D -9 B +6 A- C- C+ F -16 D+ F D
 Thu, Jan 8 217 @Drexel L 37 - 56 39% -7  17% 7 - 8 1 - 3 F -19 F -27 F C B B- +4 A F B+
 Sat, Jan 10 113 UNC Wilmington L 71 - 75 38% +8  72% 7 - 9 1 - 4 C- -4 C -0 C- A+ D+ D+ -4 F+ D+ C
 Thu, Jan 15 117 Hofstra W 76 - 71 39% +6  89% 8 - 9 2 - 4 B- +5 A +13 A C B+ D- -8 D+ A- F
 Sat, Jan 17 156 College of Charleston W 112 - 106 2OT 51% +3  68% 9 - 9 3 - 4 C+ +3 A+ +14 A+ D A F -13 D+ F F
 Thu, Jan 22 269 @Northeastern W 95 - 80 51% +9  94% 10 - 9 4 - 4 B+ +12 A +14 A+ D+ F+ C- -2 B F F
 Thu, Jan 29 192 @Campbell W 81 - 69 35% +3  75% 11 - 9 5 - 4 B+ +13 B+ +8 A F B B +5 C A- D+
 Sat, Jan 31 215 @Elon W 72 - 68 39% +6  90% 12 - 9 6 - 4 C+ +4 D -6 D+ C F+ A +10 C A+ C+
 Thu, Feb 5 208 Monmouth L 75 - 76 61% -8  0% 12 - 10 6 - 5 D+ -7 D+ -3 B- C- F D+ -4 D+ A D-
 Sat, Feb 7 269 Northeastern W 69 - 55 72% +10  73% 13 - 10 7 - 5 B- +5 F -10 C- F D+ A+ +16 A+ D- C
 Thu, Feb 12 172 @Towson L 62 - 67 31%
 Mon, Feb 16 217 Drexel W 66 - 63 62%
 Sat, Feb 21 248 Hampton W 69 - 64 67%
 Thu, Feb 26 208 @Monmouth L 66 - 69 39%
 Sat, Feb 28 117 @Hofstra L 65 - 74 20%
 Tue, Mar 3 172 Towson W 65 - 64 53%
Totals 16 - 13 10 - 8 -3 C- -2 C D C- C -1 C- B- D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- D- B- B- C 35% 16% 49% C+ C C- D D C- D- C- D C C- A- D+ C- 37% 20% 43% C C- C- B+ B- D+ C+ C C
1.05 51% 41% 36% 0 0 1.02 28% 0.9 .25 18% .25 71% .18 1.10 60% 31% 36% +1 0 1.04 31% 0.9 .28 15% .30 72% .18
Nov
8		 Maine D- C C F D- 47% 21% 32% C+ D F F F A+ B+ D- C+ B- F A+ A+ B+ 46% 23% 31% D+ B A- F+ B- F F B F+
1.02 60% 36% 24% -4 +1 0.94 24% 0.7 .17 11% .37 65% .24 0.86 68% 9% 20% -8 0 0.85 14% 1.2 .16 16% .42 60% .25
Nov
15		 Yale A A+ B- A+ A+ 33% 16% 51% C+ A+ D- A+ B- F+ B C B F+ C+ A- F F 40% 23% 38% B- F+ F+ A+ B- C+ F F F
1.24 73% 43% 43% +13 0 1.29 23% 1.5 .35 19% .33 71% .23 1.35 56% 33% 60% +13 0 1.28 40% 0.9 .36 16% .61 85% .52
Nov
20		 Brown B+ C- F A+ B- 53% 16% 31% A- B C+ A+ A- A- C+ D- C D- B F F F 42% 22% 36% B- F F B- D C- B A+ A-
1.20 56% 25% 44% +1 +2 1.08 32% 1.3 .41 13% .35 70% .24 1.05 48% 55% 44% +5 0 1.12 35% 1.0 .35 19% .20 55% .11
Nov
24		 Pacific F F A+ F F 23% 19% 58% C+ F+ D- C- D D F A+ D F F D F F 40% 33% 28% A- F A+ C A+ C+ F F F
0.87 33% 50% 27% -10 -1 0.81 18% 1.0 .18 18% .24 85% .20 1.29 94% 46% 64% +29 -1 1.58 18% 1.0 .18 21% .45 83% .38
Nov
25		 Bethune-Cookman D- D D D+ D+ 26% 19% 55% F+ D B+ F D- F C+ F D+ A B+ C+ A+ A 42% 35% 23% A A F A+ A- C F A- F
0.97 50% 33% 31% -6 -1 0.89 38% 0.7 .28 22% .33 63% .20 0.86 50% 33% 20% -10 -2 0.79 45% 0.4 .17 17% .50 62% .31
Nov
28		 Loyola Marymount C+ F A+ C- B- 38% 21% 40% B- B- D- B D+ B- A A A+ B D- A+ A- B+ 38% 13% 50% F B- F B+ D- B+ F F F
1.04 33% 80% 32% -2 0 0.98 24% 1.1 .27 15% .38 82% .31 1.00 67% 17% 29% -3 +1 0.98 39% 0.9 .35 22% .38 80% .30
Dec
6		 Duquesne B- F A+ D D 36% 13% 52% B+ D+ B- D+ C+ A+ F A- F D B- F F F 38% 11% 51% C+ F F A+ A+ D+ F C- F
1.09 35% 86% 31% -4 +1 0.95 32% 0.9 .29 12% .23 79% .18 1.22 56% 60% 46% +11 +1 1.26 38% 0.5 .18 16% .45 73% .33
Dec
9		 Columbia F F B+ C+ F 46% 19% 35% C+ F+ C A+ B F B- F+ C A- C A+ B A- 43% 11% 46% D+ B+ D A+ A+ C+ D+ F+ D-
0.97 35% 45% 35% -9 +1 0.86 30% 1.2 .36 20% .33 67% .22 0.92 57% 17% 32% -4 +2 0.96 40% 0.4 .16 23% .31 79% .25
Dec
13		 Central Michigan C+ F+ A+ A+ A+ 42% 23% 35% D A+ A+ C- A+ F C- B- C A C+ C+ A+ A+ 34% 25% 42% C A+ A+ F+ B+ F C+ F D+
1.22 50% 50% 67% +17 0 1.35 54% 1.2 .63 31% .34 73% .25 0.86 56% 38% 9% -16 -1 0.68 18% 1.3 .23 12% .27 80% .21
Dec
17		 Albany F F F+ F F 42% 18% 40% C F F F F A- F F+ F D F A+ F F 43% 9% 48% F F C A+ A+ D+ F A+ C
0.84 42% 30% 26% -13 +1 0.77 17% 0.4 .07 11% .22 69% .15 1.09 75% 25% 41% +11 +2 1.28 30% 0.4 .12 18% .34 44% .15
Dec
21		 Marist F F F F F 22% 31% 47% F+ F F+ F F C- C- F D- C- C+ B+ C C+ 35% 23% 42% D+ C+ C- D D+ F C C+ C+
0.77 45% 27% 26% -12 -2 0.73 22% 0.7 .15 20% .34 61% .21 1.06 56% 33% 32% -3 -1 0.94 27% 1.2 .32 12% .24 79% .19
Dec
29		 Hampton F F+ D+ A+ C+ 50% 7% 43% A B D- F F F B- F F B F F A+ C 31% 27% 42% C C A F D+ C- C- A+ B+
0.92 52% 33% 44% +4 +3 1.14 23% 0.3 .06 25% .41 45% .19 0.96 71% 50% 16% -4 -1 0.91 26% 1.4 .35 17% .36 58% .21
Dec
31		 William & Mary F B F F+ F 24% 14% 63% D F B- F F C- F A+ D- D+ D+ F F F 39% 9% 52% C F C- A+ A C+ D D- F+
0.88 67% 14% 28% -7 0 0.88 35% 0.3 .09 20% .17 89% .15 1.17 65% 50% 43% +11 +1 1.27 28% 0.8 .21 18% .38 80% .30
Jan
3		 N.C. A&T B C D- A+ A- 40% 17% 42% C+ A- D B C- C+ F+ A+ D+ F A B- F D+ 40% 33% 27% C+ D+ F A F D C+ F D-
1.24 57% 33% 50% +9 +1 1.21 22% 1.1 .25 12% .24 79% .19 1.22 43% 35% 50% 0 -1 0.98 56% 0.8 .46 17% .35 89% .31
Jan
8		 Drexel F F F F F 26% 17% 57% C F B- D C B F D+ F B- A+ A+ C- A+ 36% 12% 52% D- A C F F B+ B- F C-
0.65 25% 13% 15% -29 0 0.43 34% 0.9 .32 14% .22 73% .16 0.98 33% 20% 36% -9 +1 0.86 30% 1.3 .40 23% .23 80% .18
Jan
10		 UNC Wilmington C F A+ F+ C- 30% 21% 49% C+ C- D A+ A+ D+ F A+ F D+ B- A+ F F+ 35% 17% 48% D- F+ B+ F D+ C A A+ A+
1.08 44% 73% 27% -2 -1 0.96 22% 2.1 .47 15% .11 83% .09 1.15 53% 13% 48% +4 0 1.10 30% 1.4 .41 15% .27 47% .13
Jan
15		 Hofstra A C+ B- A+ A 33% 20% 47% C+ A B+ D- C B+ C- D- D D- B- A+ F D+ 27% 21% 52% C D+ D+ A+ A- F A- D- B+
1.28 56% 40% 43% +7 0 1.14 36% 0.9 .33 12% .29 67% .19 1.20 54% 20% 44% +3 -1 1.06 37% 0.8 .29 12% .21 82% .17
Jan
17		 College of Charleston A+ C+ A+ A A+ 35% 12% 53% A- A+ F A D A A+ D- A+ F B A+ F C- 46% 19% 35% D- D+ B F F F F F F
1.30 61% 75% 40% +10 +1 1.24 20% 1.2 .24 9% .40 65% .26 1.23 55% 25% 41% 0 +1 1.03 26% 1.6 .43 12% .47 83% .39
Jan
22		 Northeastern A C+ D+ A+ A+ 33% 10% 57% C+ A+ B- F+ D+ F+ C+ C+ C+ C- F A+ A+ B+ 39% 18% 44% C+ B C+ F F F C- A+ A
1.33 63% 40% 57% +22 +1 1.47 37% 0.8 .30 21% .36 75% .27 1.12 73% 20% 24% -4 0 0.95 26% 1.8 .46 11% .30 42% .13
Jan
29		 Campbell B+ B B A+ A 45% 15% 40% B A B F F B C+ B B- B F A+ D C- 31% 25% 43% A+ C A+ D A- D+ A+ F B+
1.22 67% 43% 47% +13 +1 1.30 36% 0.5 .18 15% .32 78% .25 1.04 69% 15% 36% -1 -1 0.98 23% 1.1 .26 17% .29 81% .23
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Elon D F B+ B+ D+ 24% 18% 57% D+ D+ B- D+ C F+ B+ B A- A B- B- D+ B- 57% 6% 37% F+ C C A+ A+ C+ C C- C-
1.04 33% 44% 39% 0 -1 1.00 36% 1.1 .39 19% .36 75% .27 0.99 55% 33% 37% 0 +3 1.08 33% 0.3 .10 17% .32 72% .23
Feb
5		 Monmouth D+ B+ F B+ B- 34% 10% 56% B- B- C- C C- F C+ A+ B+ D+ D A D D+ 35% 23% 42% C- D+ C A+ A D- F+ D- F
1.05 65% 0% 39% +3 +1 1.10 31% 0.9 .29 24% .29 88% .26 1.06 61% 25% 36% 0 -1 1.00 30% 0.6 .19 14% .37 78% .29
Feb
7		 Northeastern F A+ C F C- 38% 15% 47% C C- F A+ F D+ C+ C C+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ 30% 26% 44% A+ A+ C+ F D- C D+ B C
1.03 78% 43% 27% +4 +1 1.11 14% 1.3 .17 19% .35 74% .26 0.82 47% 23% 18% -18 -1 0.64 26% 1.4 .36 18% .31 65% .20



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.5 1st
2nd 0.1 2.6 4.0 0.7 7.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.7 10.1 2.5 0.1 15.4 3rd
4th 0.3 10.8 5.3 0.1 16.4 4th
5th 0.0 2.8 11.7 0.8 15.2 5th
6th 0.1 9.5 4.0 0.0 13.7 6th
7th 1.2 10.9 0.4 12.5 7th
8th 0.0 4.5 3.3 7.8 8th
9th 0.4 5.6 0.3 6.3 9th
10th 1.7 2.6 0.0 4.3 10th
11th 0.7 0.1 0.8 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 2.7 14.0 27.1 29.6 18.8 6.9 0.9 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 16.7% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 4.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.9% 10.0% 10.0% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8
12-6 6.9% 9.1% 9.1% 14.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 6.3
11-7 18.8% 7.9% 7.9% 14.5 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.0 17.3
10-8 29.6% 3.7% 3.7% 14.7 0.4 0.7 0.1 28.5
9-9 27.1% 2.1% 2.1% 15.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 26.5
8-10 14.0% 1.1% 1.1% 15.7 0.1 0.1 13.9
7-11 2.7% 1.1% 1.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 2.7
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 14.6 96.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 1.8%