Duquesne
Atlantic 10
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating +2.9 120
Results Rating +2.2 125
Consistency 0.13 73
Pace 72.6 73
Improvement +0.6 164

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 132 B- C C- B A-
Defense C+ 131 C+ C+ C+ D+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 63 B- 61% 101 +3.8 50
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 335 D+ 36% 257 -4.1 351
Three Pointers 46% 72 C 34% 181 +2.8 87
Shot Selection/Accuracy A- +1.6 18 C+ +0.9 135
1st FG Attempt B- 1.07 95
Second Chance C 30.2% 185 C 1.03 175 C 0.31 167
Opponents' Steals C 9.5% 188
Other Turnovers D+ 7.9% 268
Turnovers C- 17.4% 232
Freethrows B 0.35 47 C 72% 199 B 0.25 63
Total Offense C+ +1.4 132

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C+ 50% 148 C- 11.6% 224
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 27% 145 F 10.3% 360
Three Pointers C+ 86% 145 D- 1.6% 330
Total B- 61% 76 D 6.9% 314


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 195 C+ 56% 129 -0.8 144
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 80 C+ 37% 139 +1.0 271
Three Pointers 38% 268 C 34% 194 -1.4 132
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.4 105 C+ -0.8 148
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.00 135
Second Chance C+ 28.6% 109 C+ 1.00 128 C+ 0.29 103
Turnovers from Steals C+ 10.0% 141
Other Turnovers C+ 7.5% 135
Turnovers C+ 17.6% 127
Freethrows D 0.34 296 C 72% 179 D+ 0.25 290
Total Defense C+ +1.5 131

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 47% 156 C 10.6% 192
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 30% 275 D+ 3.5% 257
Three Pointers C- 85% 218 C- 0.7% 216
Total C 55% 179 C- 5.1% 207

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.2 60 17.5 223
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 62 0.20 292
Consistency 0.12 172 0.10 46
Improvement -0.7 223 +1.3 113

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 136 119 104
Results Rating Rank 162 127 107
Conference Record 8 - 10 9 - 9 10 - 8
Conference Finish 8 7 5
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 1% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.7 12.4 13.0
.500 or above 82% 100% 67%
.500 or above in Conference 81% 100% 65%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round1% 1% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Rhode Island (Away) - 44.2% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 22 - 42 - 9
Quad 35 - 47 - 14
Quad 49 - 116 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 333 Niagara W 83 - 63 94% +17  100% 1 - 0 B- +5 C- -1 A+ C- F B+ +6 A- B B+
 Fri, Nov 7 287 Sacred Heart W 92 - 80 89% +7  91% 2 - 0 C+ +2 B- +4 F A- A C- -3 B+ C+ F+
 Tue, Nov 11 202 Queens W 87 - 81 OT 78% +9  93% 3 - 0 C +1 F -13 D+ F F+ A+ +12 B+ A+ B+
 Sat, Nov 15 38 @Villanova L 77 - 87 11% -6  28% 3 - 1 B- +7 A- +10 A+ D F+ D+ -3 A+ F A
 Wed, Nov 19 314 Loyola Maryland W 92 - 78 92% +12  99% 4 - 1 C +1 B- +4 B A+ F D+ -3 D- C+ C-
 Sat, Nov 22 296 Northeastern L 86 - 93 85% -3  2% 4 - 2 F+ -15 F -11 C+ F F C- -3 F A- A+
 Tue, Dec 2 139 William & Mary L 79 - 83 68% -8  8% 4 - 3 D+ -6 D -6 D- A+ F C+ +0 F A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 226 Stony Brook W 84 - 75 82% +8  94% 5 - 3 C+ +2 B+ +8 A F+ C D -5 B- D+ F
 Wed, Dec 10 60 @Boise St. L 64 - 86 18% -12  0% 5 - 4 D -10 D- -7 F+ C+ C C- -3 C C- F
 Sat, Dec 13 81 @Nevada L 75 - 78 24% -5  21% 5 - 5 B- +7 B +7 C- A D+ C +0 A- F+ D+
 Mon, Dec 22 338 Canisius W 103 - 59 94% +22  97% 6 - 5 A+ +29 A+ +19 A+ B- B- A- +8 C- C A+
 Tue, Dec 30 111 @Davidson W 89 - 83 2OT 36% -3  12% 7 - 5 1 - 0 B+ +13 B+ +9 C B- B B- +3 A A F
 Sat, Jan 3 49 Virginia Commonwealth L 80 - 93 31% -7  7% 7 - 6 1 - 1 C- -5 B +6 A+ F+ D+ F -10 C- F B-
 Wed, Jan 7 116 @Saint Joseph's L 90 - 97 OT 38% +0  38% 7 - 7 1 - 2 C -1 A- +10 A B D F -10 F C+ D-
 Tue, Jan 13 75 Dayton L 65 - 71 43% -5  8% 7 - 8 1 - 3 C -1 C -0 C F B+ C- -2 C A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 17 159 @Fordham W 74 - 63 50% +6  97% 8 - 8 2 - 3 B+ +14 C+ +3 B D+ D A+ +11 A B C+
 Tue, Jan 20 24 Saint Louis L 77 - 81 18% -5  11% 8 - 9 2 - 4 B +9 C +1 D A+ D A- +8 A D+ A
 Sat, Jan 24 279 @Loyola Chicago W 71 - 59 73% +4  79% 9 - 9 3 - 4 B +8 D+ -3 C+ F+ D A+ +12 A+ B D-
 Wed, Jan 28 138 St. Bonaventure L 79 - 87 68% +2  64% 9 - 10 3 - 5 D -10 C -0 B+ F B+ F+ -10 F A F
 Sun, Feb 1 135 Rhode Island W 76 - 61 66% +8  93% 10 - 10 4 - 5 B+ +14 B+ +8 A B- C- B+ +7 B- B C+
 Wed, Feb 4 105 @George Mason W 71 - 65 34% +0  49% 11 - 10 5 - 5 B+ +13 B- +5 D+ A+ B- A +9 D+ A A+
 Sat, Feb 7 78 George Washington W 88 - 86 44% -0  46% 12 - 10 6 - 5 B- +7 A +14 B+ C- A+ D- -8 D+ D+ A+
 Sat, Feb 14 138 @St. Bonaventure W 78 - 73 45% +7  89% 13 - 10 7 - 5 B +9 C+ +3 C- F+ A+ B+ +7 B+ C B+
 Wed, Feb 18 210 La Salle W 62 - 61 80% +5  73% 14 - 10 8 - 5 C- -5 F -13 C F F A +9 B- B A+
 Sat, Feb 21 75 @Dayton L 66 - 78 23% -6  5% 14 - 11 8 - 6 C -1 B- +4 D A B- D -6 B F F
 Wed, Feb 25 111 Davidson L 56 - 67 59% -8  13% 14 - 12 8 - 7 D -10 F -14 F D- A- B- +3 A- B C
 Sat, Feb 28 24 @Saint Louis L 76 - 91 8% -1  46% 14 - 13 8 - 8 C+ +4 A+ +15 A A C+ F -12 F C D+
 Wed, Mar 4 135 @Rhode Island L 71 - 73 44%
 Sat, Mar 7 136 Richmond W 79 - 75 66%
Totals 15 - 14 9 - 9 +3 C+ +1 F C+ A- C+ +2 C C B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ B- D+ C C+ 43% 23% 46% A- B- C C C C- B C B C+ C+ C+ C C+ 38% 24% 38% C+ C+ C+ C+ C+ C+ D C D+
1.11 61% 36% 34% +1 +2 1.07 30% 1.0 .31 17% .35 72% .25 1.06 56% 37% 34% -1 0 1.00 29% 1.0 .29 18% .34 72% .25
Nov
3		 Niagara C- A+ F A A+ 39% 12% 49% B A+ D- A C- F D- C D- B+ D+ C- A+ A- 47% 23% 30% B A- B- A B B+ F D- F
1.17 84% 17% 42% +13 +1 1.31 27% 1.3 .35 24% .24 77% .19 0.89 60% 40% 15% -7 0 0.88 19% 0.7 .13 23% .49 78% .38
Nov
7		 Sacred Heart B- B+ A+ F F 42% 5% 53% B+ F B B A- A A+ D- A+ C- F A+ A B+ 28% 14% 58% C- B+ F A+ C+ F+ F A+ F
1.24 70% 67% 17% -7 +2 0.93 38% 1.2 .44 9% .58 67% .39 1.08 75% 0% 28% -6 0 0.91 35% 0.7 .26 15% .73 67% .49
Nov
11		 Queens F A B F D- 52% 12% 37% A- D+ F D+ F F+ A F C- A+ A D+ C+ B+ 32% 21% 47% B+ B+ C- A+ A+ B+ F+ C+ D-
1.01 71% 43% 18% -2 +2 1.03 22% 1.0 .22 19% .43 57% .24 0.94 50% 42% 33% -2 -1 0.96 30% 0.4 .13 19% .39 74% .29
Nov
15		 Villanova A- F+ A+ A+ A+ 41% 13% 46% A A+ A- F D F+ A+ D- A+ D+ C A+ C+ A+ 45% 17% 38% D+ A+ F C+ F A F D- F
1.11 47% 67% 52% +12 +1 1.28 38% 0.6 .22 24% .38 65% .25 1.25 62% 0% 33% -5 +1 0.94 55% 1.0 .55 19% .58 76% .44
Nov
19		 Loyola Maryland B- A+ F C+ B 41% 12% 47% B+ B B+ A A+ F A+ B- A+ D+ D- A B- D 49% 8% 43% F D- A+ F C+ C- F A+ D+
1.23 80% 17% 35% +7 +1 1.18 39% 1.4 .55 23% .45 77% .35 1.04 65% 25% 30% 0 +2 1.08 18% 1.3 .24 16% .34 62% .21
Nov
22		 Northeastern F C- B+ A C- 71% 7% 22% A+ C+ F C- F F B D- C+ C- F F A+ F 53% 16% 31% D- F D+ A+ A- A+ F F F
1.02 59% 50% 42% +4 +4 1.18 16% 1.0 .16 22% .38 68% .26 1.10 81% 50% 25% +10 +2 1.25 29% 0.7 .19 25% .47 80% .38
Dec
2		 William & Mary D C A F F 40% 4% 56% A- D- A A+ A+ F A+ C A+ C+ C- A+ F F 37% 8% 55% C F A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F A-
1.03 60% 50% 25% -6 +2 0.94 39% 1.5 .61 27% .43 71% .30 1.08 63% 25% 50% +14 +2 1.33 15% 0.8 .11 23% .24 86% .20
Dec
6		 Stony Brook B+ D+ A+ A+ A 38% 11% 51% B+ A B+ F F+ C A+ C A+ D A+ F B B 36% 13% 52% D+ B- D C- D+ F B- F+ C
1.22 56% 60% 46% +10 +1 1.26 38% 0.5 .18 16% .45 73% .33 1.09 35% 86% 31% -5 +1 0.95 32% 0.9 .29 12% .23 79% .18
Dec
10		 Boise St. D- A- F F F 38% 16% 45% A- F+ D A+ C+ C B F C C- A+ A+ F D+ 35% 31% 35% A+ C A+ F C- F B- F C-
0.91 67% 22% 20% -9 +1 0.85 17% 1.5 .25 16% .30 61% .18 1.22 44% 25% 61% +5 -2 1.10 26% 1.5 .39 11% .32 90% .29
Dec
13		 Nevada B D- A D- D 42% 4% 54% A C- A C- A D+ B A+ A+ C A+ D D+ A- 43% 40% 17% A A- C+ F F+ D+ F C+ F
1.11 48% 50% 30% -7 +2 0.92 38% 1.1 .43 19% .37 90% .33 1.16 40% 42% 38% -5 -2 0.87 33% 1.3 .44 12% .54 75% .40
Dec
22		 Canisius A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 38% 4% 58% A- A+ D- A+ B- B- D B+ D+ A- C+ C D+ D- 22% 47% 31% A+ C- A F C A+ F+ A+ C
1.41 76% 100% 47% +20 +2 1.47 25% 1.4 .36 14% .27 76% .21 0.81 50% 38% 36% -1 -5 0.91 18% 1.3 .24 29% .35 56% .19
Dec
30		 Davidson B+ F F A+ C 31% 17% 52% B- C B- B- B- B C+ A+ A- B- C+ A+ A A+ 41% 15% 44% D- A A+ C- A F A F B-
1.14 44% 10% 43% -2 0 0.98 33% 1.1 .35 15% .32 81% .26 1.06 56% 30% 28% -6 +1 0.91 20% 1.1 .22 8% .21 80% .17
Jan
3		 Virginia Commonwealth B A+ A+ D+ A+ 50% 4% 46% A+ A+ F+ D- F+ D+ A+ F A F F+ A- C C- 42% 13% 44% C C- C F F B- F D F
1.12 79% 50% 32% +10 +3 1.27 21% 0.8 .17 18% .43 64% .27 1.30 68% 33% 35% +4 +1 1.13 34% 1.8 .62 17% .52 77% .40
Jan
7		 Saint Joseph's A- B A+ C- A 35% 18% 47% B A B+ C+ B D C+ A+ B+ F C- F D F 41% 14% 45% C F D A- C+ D- F C- F
1.12 62% 64% 32% +5 0 1.12 37% 1.0 .37 17% .23 87% .20 1.21 61% 75% 36% +8 +1 1.20 36% 0.8 .31 14% .42 76% .32
Jan
13		 Dayton C C B- D- C- 39% 11% 50% A C D F F B+ A+ B- A+ C- B A+ F C- 45% 15% 40% C C A A+ A+ D+ F F+ F
1.01 56% 40% 30% -3 +1 0.98 24% 0.5 .12 19% .42 73% .31 1.10 56% 17% 44% +1 +1 1.08 21% 0.8 .17 16% .51 82% .42
Jan
17		 Fordham C+ C F A+ B 33% 18% 49% B B D- B+ D+ D A+ C A+ A+ B+ F A+ A+ 33% 20% 46% C+ A D- A+ B C+ C- A+ B-
1.04 56% 22% 42% +2 0 1.06 19% 1.2 .23 18% .47 67% .31 0.89 50% 55% 16% -12 0 0.78 39% 0.7 .29 18% .26 60% .16
Jan
20		 Saint Louis C D+ F F D- 39% 14% 46% B+ D A+ A- A+ D A+ C+ A+ A- A D+ F A 55% 14% 31% C+ A A- F D+ A F A+ D-
1.00 50% 25% 23% -13 +1 0.79 37% 1.1 .39 18% .49 74% .37 1.05 48% 43% 47% +1 +2 1.08 26% 1.4 .38 21% .41 64% .26
Jan
24		 Loyola Chicago D+ C F A- C 43% 15% 43% B C+ F B+ F+ D A F B A+ D A+ A+ A+ 33% 17% 50% B+ A+ A+ F B D- D+ D- D
1.05 55% 29% 40% +1 +1 1.06 16% 1.2 .19 15% .38 68% .26 0.87 63% 25% 21% -11 0 0.81 18% 1.3 .24 16% .33 74% .25
Jan
28		 St. Bonaventure C F A+ A+ B 40% 12% 48% B B+ C F F B+ A F C- F+ B F F F 43% 29% 29% C F A+ F A F F D- F
1.13 45% 67% 46% +7 +1 1.18 30% 0.5 .14 14% .37 55% .20 1.24 52% 64% 50% +12 -1 1.24 16% 1.5 .24 11% .42 81% .34
Feb
1		 Rhode Island B+ D+ F A+ A- 41% 2% 56% A A B C B- C- A A+ A+ B+ D+ A+ D C 29% 22% 49% A B- A- C+ B C+ C+ A+ A+
1.17 53% 0% 43% +5 +3 1.17 36% 1.0 .36 22% .43 91% .39 0.94 62% 20% 36% -1 -1 0.98 26% 0.9 .24 20% .35 50% .17
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 George Mason B- D- F B D 39% 20% 41% B- D+ B A+ A+ B- A+ B+ A+ A F A+ F+ D 30% 30% 39% A D+ C+ A+ A A+ B+ A+ A+
1.10 50% 22% 37% -5 0 0.93 32% 1.4 .45 14% .38 76% .29 1.01 86% 21% 39% +6 -2 1.11 30% 0.7 .20 26% .32 53% .17
Feb
7		 George Washington A B C- B B 51% 18% 31% B+ B+ B+ F C- A+ A+ B+ A+ D- D A+ F D 37% 8% 55% B- D+ F A+ D+ A+ D- F F
1.29 65% 33% 38% +5 +1 1.14 34% 0.8 .28 6% .47 77% .36 1.26 67% 25% 41% +8 +1 1.20 54% 0.8 .43 23% .36 89% .33
Feb
14		 St. Bonaventure C+ C F C+ D+ 39% 12% 49% B C- F+ D+ F+ A+ D+ F D B+ C- C- A+ B 41% 43% 16% A+ B+ B D- C B+ F B- F
1.13 59% 29% 36% 0 +1 1.05 21% 1.0 .21 9% .25 69% .17 1.06 60% 43% 25% +1 -3 0.98 31% 1.1 .34 20% .40 73% .29
Feb
18		 La Salle F A A+ F C- 48% 10% 43% A- C F F F F A+ C A+ A A+ C- C B- 38% 22% 40% C B- C A B A+ D+ A+ B
0.90 70% 75% 17% -2 +2 1.02 19% 0.8 .15 26% .43 68% .29 0.88 41% 40% 33% -6 0 0.89 33% 0.8 .26 26% .37 58% .21
Feb
21		 Dayton B- C- F A D 34% 27% 39% C- D B+ A+ A B- A+ B+ A+ D A+ F B+ B+ 45% 16% 39% C B F F F F F C+ F
1.03 53% 8% 41% -6 -1 0.89 36% 1.2 .44 20% .47 75% .35 1.21 45% 71% 29% -3 +1 0.98 35% 1.5 .52 12% .57 75% .43
Feb
25		 Davidson F F+ D- F F 55% 6% 40% A+ F D- D- D- A- D- D+ D- B- C A+ A- A+ 49% 13% 38% F A- D+ A+ B C F D+ F
0.85 48% 33% 19% -15 +3 0.79 23% 0.9 .21 14% .25 64% .16 1.02 59% 17% 29% -5 +2 0.96 33% 0.8 .28 17% .40 68% .27
Feb
28		 Saint Louis A+ C- A+ C- A- 50% 12% 38% A+ A A- A A C+ A+ D A- F A F F F 36% 7% 58% B F A- F C D+ F F F
1.16 52% 67% 32% -1 +2 1.04 33% 1.1 .36 15% .41 70% .29 1.39 50% 67% 58% +20 +2 1.44 26% 1.3 .35 15% .43 88% .38



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 16.2 16.2 5th
6th 10.3 11.6 21.9 6th
7th 4.4 40.4 2.0 46.8 7th
8th 11.4 11.4 8th
9th 3.6 3.6 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 19.4 50.7 29.9 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 29.9% 1.4% 1.4% 12.3 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 29.5
9-9 50.7% 0.9% 0.9% 12.8 0.1 0.3 0.0 50.3
8-10 19.4% 0.6% 0.6% 13.7 0.0 0.1 19.3
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 12.7 99.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 12.3 2.4 70.7 24.4 2.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 6.2%
Lose Out 11.3%