Nevada
Mountain West
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.3#105
Expected Predictive Rating+5.9#99
Pace67.3#250
Improvement+0.9#109

Offense
Total Offense+2.4#113
First Shot+3.3#91
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#229
Layup/Dunks-1.9#250
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#26
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#303
Freethrows+5.8#5
Improvement-0.5#223

Defense
Total Defense+2.0#111
First Shot+3.1#79
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#262
Layups/Dunks+3.1#73
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#23
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#208
Freethrows-1.7#288
Improvement+1.4#61
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.4% 5.4% 3.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.4% 0.6% 0.1%
Average Seed 11.6 11.4 11.8
.500 or above 76.7% 84.8% 66.5%
.500 or above in Conference 62.2% 66.5% 56.9%
Conference Champion 4.4% 5.4% 3.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.6% 1.1%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
First Round4.2% 5.1% 3.1%
Second Round0.8% 1.1% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Washington St. (Away) - 55.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 4
Quad 23 - 53 - 9
Quad 39 - 412 - 13
Quad 46 - 119 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 188 Louisiana Tech W 77-50 81%     1 - 0 +22.0 +13.3 +11.8
  Sat, Nov 8 139 Pacific W 78-77 71%     2 - 0 -0.5 +7.8 -8.2
  Wed, Nov 12 142 Southern Illinois W 86-81 OT 72%     3 - 0 +3.3 +2.5 +0.3
  Sat, Nov 15 55 @Santa Clara L 83-98 22%     3 - 1 -2.4 +15.0 -17.4
  Tue, Nov 18 168 UC Davis L 71-75 78%     3 - 2 -7.9 -6.1 -1.6
  Sat, Nov 22 148 UC Santa Barbara W 77-64 74%     4 - 2 +10.5 +2.1 +8.8
  Thu, Nov 27 57 Washington L 66-83 31%     4 - 3 -7.6 -4.9 -2.4
  Fri, Nov 28 99 San Francisco W 81-65 47%     5 - 3 +21.0 +17.8 +4.6
  Tue, Dec 2 102 UC San Diego W 76-70 60%     6 - 3 +7.8 +8.9 -0.6
  Sun, Dec 7 158 @Washington St. W 77-75 55%    
  Sat, Dec 13 135 Duquesne W 80-74 70%    
  Sat, Dec 20 59 Boise St. L 68-70 42%    
  Tue, Dec 30 74 @Colorado St. L 69-75 28%    
  Sat, Jan 3 179 @Fresno St. W 76-73 59%    
  Tue, Jan 6 52 San Diego St. L 72-75 40%    
  Sat, Jan 10 106 Wyoming W 74-71 60%    
  Wed, Jan 14 51 @Utah St. L 69-78 19%    
  Sat, Jan 17 332 @Air Force W 73-62 85%    
  Tue, Jan 20 185 San Jose St. W 75-66 79%    
  Sat, Jan 24 103 @New Mexico L 75-78 39%    
  Tue, Jan 27 94 Grand Canyon W 72-70 57%    
  Fri, Jan 30 131 UNLV W 82-77 68%    
  Tue, Feb 3 59 @Boise St. L 65-73 24%    
  Sat, Feb 7 179 Fresno St. W 79-70 78%    
  Sat, Feb 14 52 @San Diego St. L 69-78 22%    
  Tue, Feb 17 185 @San Jose St. W 72-69 60%    
  Sat, Feb 21 51 Utah St. L 72-75 38%    
  Tue, Feb 24 103 New Mexico W 78-75 59%    
  Sat, Feb 28 131 @UNLV L 79-80 47%    
  Tue, Mar 3 106 @Wyoming L 71-74 40%    
  Sat, Mar 7 332 Air Force W 76-59 94%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.8 2.0 0.7 0.1 7.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.1 2.7 0.6 0.0 9.4 3rd
4th 0.2 2.1 5.1 3.4 0.7 0.0 11.5 4th
5th 0.1 2.2 5.6 3.8 0.6 0.0 12.4 5th
6th 0.2 1.7 5.6 4.3 1.0 0.0 12.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 4.9 4.7 0.9 0.0 12.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.3 4.5 1.0 0.0 11.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.2 3.4 1.1 0.1 9.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.3 2.2 0.6 0.0 6.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.0 3.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.2 4.4 7.2 10.1 12.2 13.9 13.1 11.9 9.6 6.6 3.9 2.0 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
17-3 89.1% 0.8    0.6 0.2 0.0
16-4 65.6% 1.3    0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
15-5 33.2% 1.3    0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0
14-6 7.9% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.4% 4.4 2.4 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.1% 100.0% 20.0% 80.0% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.2% 45.5% 22.7% 22.7% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 29.4%
17-3 1.0% 30.5% 18.9% 11.6% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 14.3%
16-4 2.0% 19.6% 15.2% 4.4% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 1.6 5.2%
15-5 3.9% 13.3% 12.1% 1.2% 11.2 0.0 0.4 0.1 3.4 1.4%
14-6 6.6% 12.1% 11.9% 0.2% 11.3 0.6 0.2 5.8 0.2%
13-7 9.6% 6.6% 6.5% 0.1% 11.6 0.3 0.3 0.0 9.0 0.1%
12-8 11.9% 5.0% 5.0% 11.7 0.2 0.3 0.0 11.3
11-9 13.1% 3.3% 3.3% 12.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 12.7
10-10 13.9% 1.9% 1.9% 12.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 13.6
9-11 12.2% 0.7% 0.7% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.1
8-12 10.1% 1.3% 1.3% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.9
7-13 7.2% 0.8% 0.8% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.1
6-14 4.4% 0.5% 0.5% 15.7 0.0 0.0 4.4
5-15 2.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 2.2
4-16 1.2% 1.2
3-17 0.4% 0.4
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 4.4% 4.0% 0.4% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.0 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 95.6 0.4%