Nevada
Mountain West
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +8.3 66
Expected Predictive Rating +9.6 59
Pace 63.6 316
Improvement +2.9 71

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B #67 C B A A- D+
Defense B- #95 B C C C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 126 53% 298 -0.8 209
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% 47 37% 184 +2.7 59
Three Pointers 32% 345 41% 8 -1.6 238
1st FG Attempt 1.02 164 +0.3 162
Second Chance 34.5% 70 1.08 106 0.37 70
Turnovers 12.8% 10
Freethrows 0.37 18 77% 34 0.28 10
Total Offense +5.4 67

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 254 51% 32 +3.9 56
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 208 39% 206 +0.3 162
Three Pointers 44% 84 31% 76 +0.0 179
1st FG Attempt 0.94 55 +4.2 55
Second Chance 27.0% 65 1.18 347 0.32 208
Turnovers 17.1% 173
Freethrows 0.32 241 72% 134 0.23 231
Total Defense +2.9 95

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.8 288 +0.0 161
Shot Type Accuracy +1.0 132 -4.0 46
Possession Length 17.2 156 18.5 330
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 61 0.14 79
Improvement +0.7 #141 +2.2 #69

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12% 20% 9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5% 11% 3%
Average Seed 10.7 10.5 10.9
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 4% 12% 1%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four4% 8% 3%
First Round10% 16% 7%
Second Round2% 4% 2%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: San Diego St. (Away) - 25.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 41 - 6
Quad 25 - 36 - 9
Quad 311 - 117 - 10
Quad 46 - 122 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 223 Louisiana Tech W 77 - 50 91% +16  98% 1 - 0 A +21 A- +10 C A+ B- A+ +14 A B- B
 Sat, Nov 8 115 Pacific W 78 - 77 78% +2  61% 2 - 0 C +1 B +6 C A B D+ -5 D A+ F
 Wed, Nov 12 127 Southern Illinois W 86 - 81 OT 81% -1  30% 3 - 0 C+ +4 B- +5 F+ D A+ C -1 B B+ F
 Sat, Nov 15 44 @Santa Clara L 83 - 98 26% -13  0% 3 - 1 C +0 A +13 B+ D A- F -13 F F C
 Tue, Nov 18 180 UC Davis L 71 - 75 88% +0  37% 3 - 2 D -8 F -10 D+ F F B- +2 F A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 22 133 UC Santa Barbara W 77 - 64 82% +8  95% 4 - 2 B+ +12 C -0 C D D+ A +12 A+ D- A-
 Thu, Nov 27 46 Washington L 66 - 83 38% -7  2% 4 - 3 D+ -6 D -6 D- C+ A- C +0 C- B+ A-
 Fri, Nov 28 107 San Francisco W 81 - 65 65% +5  66% 5 - 3 A +20 A+ +14 A- C A+ B+ +7 A F A+
 Tue, Dec 2 139 UC San Diego W 76 - 70 83% +4  92% 6 - 3 C+ +4 B+ +8 B+ A- A- C- -3 A+ F F
 Sun, Dec 7 125 @Washington St. W 78 - 64 62% +5  55% 7 - 3 A +19 A +11 F+ A+ A+ A- +9 A C- A-
 Sat, Dec 13 108 Duquesne W 78 - 75 76% +5  77% 8 - 3 C+ +4 B +6 D- A+ A+ C -1 A F B-
 Sat, Dec 20 58 Boise St. W 81 - 66 57% +10  97% 9 - 3 1 - 0 A +21 A+ +17 A C+ A B +6 C A A
 Tue, Dec 30 103 @Colorado St. W 75 - 62 52% +4  83% 10 - 3 2 - 0 A +21 B+ +8 F A+ B+ A+ +14 A+ D- D-
 Sat, Jan 3 140 @Fresno St. W 66 - 65 65% -2  8% 11 - 3 3 - 0 B- +5 C +0 D+ B- A- B +5 C F+ A
 Tue, Jan 6 43 San Diego St. L 68 - 73 46% +2  54% 11 - 4 3 - 1 C+ +4 B +6 F+ A+ A+ C- -3 B+ F B+
 Sat, Jan 10 106 Wyoming W 92 - 83 75% +4  89% 12 - 4 4 - 1 B +10 A+ +29 A+ A+ A- F -17 D- F F
 Wed, Jan 14 35 @Utah St. L 62 - 71 20% -3  14% 12 - 5 4 - 2 B +8 C- -2 B- F C A +10 B A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 17 349 @Air Force W 81 - 66 94% +10  77% 13 - 5 5 - 2 B- +5 B- +5 A D F C+ +1 F A+ C-
 Tue, Jan 20 236 San Jose St. W 87 - 54 92% +16  97% 14 - 5 6 - 2 A+ +26 A+ +19 B A- A+ A +12 A+ A- F+
 Sat, Jan 24 49 @New Mexico L 73 - 80 29% -0  42% 14 - 6 6 - 3 B- +7 B- +4 B D- B+ B- +3 A D- D+
 Tue, Jan 27 68 Grand Canyon W 66 - 60 OT 62% -2  31% 15 - 6 7 - 3 B +11 D -5 F C+ A+ A+ +16 A+ B+ A-
 Fri, Jan 30 124 UNLV W 89 - 76 81% +11  97% 16 - 6 8 - 3 B+ +12 A+ +15 A+ B- A+ C- -3 D+ B+ D+
 Tue, Feb 3 58 @Boise St. L 87 - 91 OT 35% -8  3% 16 - 7 8 - 4 B +8 A +12 B- A+ A+ C- -3 C F C-
 Sat, Feb 7 140 Fresno St. W 69 - 59 83% -2  25% 17 - 7 9 - 4 B +8 C+ +3 F A A+ B+ +7 A+ C F
 Sat, Feb 14 43 @San Diego St. L 67 - 74 26%
 Tue, Feb 17 236 @San Jose St. W 75 - 65 82%
 Sat, Feb 21 35 Utah St. L 73 - 76 39%
 Tue, Feb 24 49 New Mexico W 76 - 75 50%
 Sat, Feb 28 124 @UNLV W 78 - 75 61%
 Tue, Mar 3 106 @Wyoming W 73 - 72 54%
 Sat, Mar 7 349 Air Force W 80 - 56 99%
Totals 21 - 10 13 - 7 +8 B +5 C B A B- +3 B C C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B D C A C+ 41% 28% 32% D+ C B- C+ B A A- B+ A- B- B+ C B- B 36% 20% 44% C B B F+ C C C- C+ C-
1.16 53% 37% 41% +1 -1 1.02 34% 1.1 .37 13% .37 77% .28 1.04 51% 39% 31% -4 0 0.94 27% 1.2 .32 17% .32 72% .27
Nov
4		 Louisiana Tech A- D- A+ D+ B- 30% 33% 37% F C A+ B+ A+ B- A+ B- A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 43% 9% 48% F A A+ F B- B D- C D
1.23 46% 50% 31% -1 -2 0.95 49% 1.2 .60 16% .53 75% .40 0.80 53% 25% 14% -18 +2 0.70 22% 1.1 .25 21% .34 65% .22
Nov
8		 Pacific B D+ A+ F C- 40% 30% 30% C+ C A+ D+ A B A+ F A+ D+ A+ C+ F D 33% 10% 58% D- D A+ C A+ F B- A+ B+
1.16 53% 54% 23% -2 -1 0.95 40% 0.9 .38 13% .67 62% .41 1.14 41% 40% 47% +6 +1 1.15 18% 1.0 .18 12% .25 67% .17
Nov
12		 Southern Illinois B- F A F D- 25% 30% 46% F F+ B- F D A+ A+ B- A+ C A F+ A- B 40% 34% 26% B B A- B- B+ F F C+ F+
1.09 33% 50% 25% -9 -2 0.80 32% 0.7 .23 5% .44 73% .32 1.03 48% 50% 27% -3 -2 0.93 23% 0.9 .20 10% .41 66% .27
Nov
15		 Santa Clara A F A+ A+ A- 40% 30% 30% F+ B+ B+ F D A- A+ A+ A+ F F F F F 37% 21% 42% B F C F F C D+ A+ C
1.18 32% 64% 50% +4 -1 1.09 36% 0.7 .24 17% .48 86% .41 1.39 74% 73% 41% +18 0 1.37 37% 1.8 .67 16% .27 63% .17
Nov
18		 UC Davis F F+ F A+ D+ 46% 17% 37% C D+ D+ F F F A+ C A+ B- D- D- F F 29% 17% 54% C F A+ A+ A+ A+ F C+ F
0.96 48% 13% 47% -2 +1 1.00 27% 0.4 .12 23% .51 72% .37 1.01 67% 43% 45% +13 0 1.27 15% 0.8 .11 27% .50 74% .37
Nov
22		 UC Santa Barbara C B B D C 45% 25% 30% C C C- F D D+ A+ A+ A+ A B+ A+ A+ A+ 38% 11% 51% D A+ A- F D- A- F A+ D-
1.13 65% 45% 31% +4 0 1.09 26% 0.9 .22 19% .54 87% .47 0.94 53% 20% 26% -10 +1 0.84 26% 1.5 .39 22% .43 65% .28
Nov
27		 Washington D F D+ A- D- 40% 35% 25% C D- D+ A C+ A- A+ C A C A+ C F B- 58% 12% 30% F C- C- A+ B+ A- F C+ F
0.92 33% 33% 38% -10 -2 0.79 23% 1.2 .28 13% .37 70% .26 1.16 40% 40% 62% +2 +3 1.12 38% 0.8 .32 20% .63 75% .47
Nov
28		 San Francisco A+ B- D- A+ A 48% 31% 21% C- A- B+ F C A+ B- A- B B+ B+ D A+ A+ 35% 18% 48% C+ A F D- F A+ F F F
1.26 60% 31% 55% +5 -1 1.12 33% 0.8 .27 6% .30 78% .23 1.01 50% 43% 26% -7 0 0.88 40% 1.3 .50 23% .51 80% .41
Dec
2		 UC San Diego B+ B B+ D+ B 46% 20% 35% B- B+ A C A- A- A+ F B C- A D+ A+ A+ 56% 9% 35% F A+ D F F F A D- B+
1.18 62% 44% 31% +2 +1 1.07 39% 1.1 .42 12% .39 59% .23 1.09 47% 40% 20% -13 +3 0.81 30% 1.4 .42 6% .18 73% .13
Dec
7		 Washington St. A F D- A D- 33% 37% 31% F F+ A A+ A+ A+ A- A+ A+ A- D+ A+ D+ A 29% 26% 45% A A D B- C- A- F D F
1.23 38% 33% 40% -6 -2 0.86 38% 1.4 .54 9% .37 86% .31 1.01 67% 18% 37% -1 -1 0.98 34% 0.9 .31 22% .45 77% .35
Dec
13		 Duquesne B F B B D 43% 40% 17% F+ D- B A+ A+ A+ A+ B- A+ C A F B+ A+ 42% 4% 54% D A F D F B- C- F F
1.16 40% 42% 38% -5 -2 0.87 33% 1.3 .44 12% .54 75% .40 1.11 48% 50% 30% -7 +2 0.92 38% 1.1 .43 19% .37 90% .33
Dec
20		 Boise St. A+ B A A+ A+ 40% 40% 20% D- A C A- C+ A A+ A+ A+ B C- D+ C C 45% 13% 43% D+ C D A+ A A F A+ F
1.30 63% 50% 50% +11 -2 1.20 21% 1.2 .25 11% .61 79% .49 1.06 61% 40% 35% +3 +2 1.10 38% 0.6 .24 21% .63 61% .38
Dec
30		 Colorado St. B+ A+ F F F 18% 39% 43% F F B- A+ A+ B+ A+ A- A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ 30% 23% 48% A- A+ C- F+ D- D- F A+ F
1.18 75% 18% 26% -10 -4 0.75 29% 2.4 .71 13% .56 74% .41 0.97 77% 10% 24% -8 -1 0.84 33% 1.3 .42 16% .54 62% .33
Jan
3		 Fresno St. C D- F C D+ 39% 22% 39% C- D+ D+ A+ B- A- B+ D- B- B B- C D+ C+ 50% 18% 32% D+ C D D- F+ A A F+ B+
1.02 53% 27% 32% -6 0 0.90 26% 1.3 .34 15% .33 67% .22 1.00 55% 38% 36% -1 +1 1.02 33% 1.1 .37 23% .22 82% .18
Jan
6		 San Diego St. B B- F F D- 20% 29% 51% F F+ B+ A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ C- F+ F A+ B+ 32% 32% 36% B B+ F F F B+ D- A- D+
1.06 60% 20% 27% -10 -2 0.76 33% 1.3 .44 14% .36 90% .33 1.14 71% 50% 19% 0 -2 0.98 40% 1.6 .63 20% .37 68% .25
Jan
10		 Wyoming A+ C- A A+ A+ 50% 17% 33% C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A- B+ A+ A+ F A F F F+ 45% 18% 36% C+ D- B F F F F B- F
1.49 57% 50% 67% +17 +1 1.39 41% 1.2 .50 13% .45 83% .37 1.35 45% 63% 50% +7 +1 1.18 32% 1.4 .46 10% .56 74% .41
Jan
14		 Utah St. C- F F A+ B 44% 33% 23% D+ B- B+ F F C C+ B B- A C B C+ B+ 45% 14% 41% C+ B A+ B- A+ B- F F F
0.94 43% 25% 64% -1 -1 0.98 37% 0.2 .07 21% .33 76% .25 1.08 60% 33% 33% 0 +1 1.05 23% 1.1 .27 17% .44 83% .37
Jan
17		 Air Force B- B C+ A+ A+ 40% 27% 33% C- A C+ F D F A A+ A+ C+ D A+ F F 21% 21% 58% A+ F A+ A+ A+ C- A+ F A
1.18 67% 42% 53% +14 -1 1.29 32% 0.8 .24 22% .39 90% .36 0.96 64% 18% 45% +7 -1 1.13 13% 0.0 .00 20% .11 100% .11
Jan
20		 San Jose St. A+ C- D A+ B+ 40% 24% 36% D B C+ A+ A- A+ A A- A+ A A C+ A+ A+ 28% 28% 44% C A+ B+ B A- F+ D+ B C-
1.41 60% 33% 50% +8 0 1.18 35% 1.5 .52 8% .37 81% .30 0.88 43% 36% 18% -15 -2 0.68 28% 0.9 .25 11% .31 71% .22
Jan
24		 New Mexico B- C- A+ D+ B 39% 22% 39% B- B B+ F D- B+ A A A+ B- A+ C- F+ A+ 40% 10% 50% C- A C F D- D+ F C+ F
1.04 55% 55% 30% 0 0 1.02 32% 0.6 .19 17% .36 81% .29 1.14 30% 40% 40% -6 +1 0.92 30% 1.3 .40 13% .44 74% .33
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
27		 Grand Canyon D F F A- F 38% 34% 29% D+ F C+ C C+ A+ A F+ B A+ A+ F A+ A+ 34% 24% 42% A- A+ A+ F B+ A- A- A A
0.91 38% 16% 38% -13 -2 0.71 27% 1.1 .29 12% .41 65% .27 0.83 41% 58% 19% -10 -1 0.80 22% 1.3 .27 21% .26 67% .17
Jan
30		 UNLV A+ B- A- A+ A+ 49% 23% 28% C+ A+ F A+ B- A+ A+ B- A+ C- B C F D 32% 23% 45% B+ D+ A- B- B+ D+ A+ F A+
1.33 61% 45% 54% +11 0 1.26 19% 2.0 .38 10% .52 74% .38 1.13 53% 42% 46% +7 -1 1.15 26% 0.8 .21 15% .19 82% .16
Feb
3		 Boise St. A B C+ B B 33% 33% 33% D B- C A+ A+ A+ C C C C- F D+ B+ C 42% 10% 48% D+ C B F F C- F C F
1.17 63% 42% 37% +5 -2 1.07 21% 1.9 .38 11% .29 68% .20 1.22 70% 40% 30% +3 +2 1.10 31% 1.8 .54 15% .55 77% .43
Feb
7		 Fresno St. C+ D- F+ F F 35% 21% 44% C- F B A A A+ A+ B A+ B+ A+ D+ A A+ 27% 20% 53% A- A+ A+ F C F C+ C C+
1.09 53% 30% 19% -13 0 0.75 33% 1.3 .44 11% .44 76% .34 0.93 38% 40% 27% -10 -1 0.80 14% 2.0 .29 13% .29 75% .22



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.0 1.7 3.8 1st
2nd 0.2 5.0 6.4 0.4 12.1 2nd
3rd 0.6 9.1 17.0 2.2 28.9 3rd
4th 0.6 8.0 18.2 3.2 29.9 4th
5th 0.2 3.5 10.6 3.6 0.0 17.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.8 2.2 0.1 6.9 6th
7th 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 1.3 8.2 21.3 31.1 25.4 10.6 2.1 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 79.3% 1.7    0.7 0.9 0.2
15-5 18.5% 2.0    0.1 0.7 0.9 0.3
14-6 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.8% 3.8 0.8 1.6 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 2.1% 51.6% 17.8% 33.8% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.0 41.1%
15-5 10.6% 27.3% 13.6% 13.7% 10.6 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.9 0.0 7.7 15.9%
14-6 25.4% 15.3% 8.6% 6.7% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 3.1 0.1 21.5 7.3%
13-7 31.1% 8.3% 6.1% 2.2% 11.0 0.0 0.2 2.3 0.1 28.5 2.4%
12-8 21.3% 5.0% 4.5% 0.6% 11.1 0.0 0.9 0.1 20.2 0.6%
11-9 8.2% 3.9% 3.7% 0.2% 11.1 0.0 0.3 0.0 7.9 0.3%
10-10 1.3% 0.8% 0.8% 11.0 0.0 1.3
9-11 0.0% 0.0
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 11.9% 7.2% 4.7% 10.7 88.1 5.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 8.4 5.3 15.8 23.7 42.1 10.5 2.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5% 53.1% 10.3 8.2 22.4 22.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8% 38.2% 10.4 2.6 18.4 17.1