UC Santa Barbara
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.2#138
Expected Predictive Rating-1.5#190
Pace66.8#236
Improvement-3.3#339

Offense
Total Offense+1.2#139
First Shot+1.5#130
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#207
Layup/Dunks-2.1#264
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#115
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#50
Freethrows-2.0#290
Improvement-3.9#361

Defense
Total Defense+0.0#166
First Shot+2.1#111
After Offensive Rebounds-2.0#323
Layups/Dunks+1.7#111
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#338
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#171
Freethrows+2.6#36
Improvement+0.7#136
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.3% 6.4% 4.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.0 12.9 13.3
.500 or above 82.6% 90.3% 75.4%
.500 or above in Conference 65.1% 70.0% 60.6%
Conference Champion 1.9% 2.3% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 2.6% 1.9% 3.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round5.3% 6.4% 4.3%
Second Round0.6% 0.8% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Missouri St. (Away) - 48.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 35 - 76 - 11
Quad 412 - 218 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 325   @ Portland W 94-53 76%     1 - 0 +34.7 +15.7 +17.7
  Nov 13, 2024 257   Fresno St. W 91-86 81%     2 - 0 -3.2 +4.9 -8.8
  Nov 17, 2024 189   @ San Jose St. W 64-59 48%     3 - 0 +6.7 +4.2 +3.6
  Nov 20, 2024 140   UTEP L 76-79 62%     3 - 1 -5.0 +7.0 -12.2
  Nov 26, 2024 254   Eastern Washington W 67-51 81%     4 - 1 +7.9 -5.1 +14.8
  Nov 29, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 81-48 98%     5 - 1 +8.8 +15.2 +0.4
  Dec 05, 2024 91   UC San Diego L 76-84 42%     5 - 2 0 - 1 -4.9 +7.5 -12.6
  Dec 07, 2024 185   @ UC Davis L 60-71 47%     5 - 3 0 - 2 -9.2 -4.2 -5.7
  Dec 14, 2024 333   Green Bay W 83-66 90%     6 - 3 +3.8 -1.8 +4.8
  Dec 18, 2024 165   @ Loyola Marymount L 58-60 45%     6 - 4 +0.5 -9.0 +9.4
  Dec 22, 2024 194   @ Missouri St. L 69-70 48%    
  Jan 03, 2025 174   @ Hawaii L 69-70 47%    
  Jan 09, 2025 229   Cal St. Bakersfield W 73-65 77%    
  Jan 11, 2025 265   @ Cal Poly W 82-78 64%    
  Jan 16, 2025 171   UC Riverside W 74-69 67%    
  Jan 18, 2025 185   UC Davis W 73-68 68%    
  Jan 23, 2025 91   @ UC San Diego L 66-74 23%    
  Jan 25, 2025 275   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 70-66 66%    
  Jan 30, 2025 158   Cal St. Northridge W 78-74 65%    
  Feb 01, 2025 261   Long Beach St. W 75-65 81%    
  Feb 06, 2025 229   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 70-68 57%    
  Feb 08, 2025 174   Hawaii W 72-67 67%    
  Feb 13, 2025 60   @ UC Irvine L 65-76 16%    
  Feb 15, 2025 171   @ UC Riverside L 71-72 46%    
  Feb 20, 2025 275   Cal St. Fullerton W 73-63 83%    
  Feb 22, 2025 261   @ Long Beach St. W 72-68 63%    
  Feb 27, 2025 265   Cal Poly W 85-75 81%    
  Mar 01, 2025 158   @ Cal St. Northridge L 75-77 44%    
  Mar 08, 2025 60   UC Irvine L 68-73 32%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 1.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.5 2.0 0.6 0.1 7.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.1 5.4 6.2 3.5 0.9 0.1 18.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.5 6.5 5.9 2.3 0.3 0.0 17.8 4th
5th 0.2 2.2 6.6 5.1 1.6 0.2 15.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 5.3 4.5 1.0 0.1 12.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.0 4.4 3.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 10.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.8 2.9 0.7 0.0 7.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.0 0.5 0.0 4.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.3 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.8 6.1 9.7 12.2 14.7 14.9 13.4 10.3 6.6 3.6 1.2 0.3 0.1 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0
17-3 83.7% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
16-4 45.6% 0.6    0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
15-5 18.2% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 4.0% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.9% 1.9 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.1% 48.0% 44.0% 4.0% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.1%
17-3 0.3% 32.0% 32.0% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
16-4 1.2% 27.5% 27.5% 12.1 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.9
15-5 3.6% 20.1% 20.1% 12.5 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 2.8
14-6 6.6% 14.5% 14.5% 12.8 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 5.7
13-7 10.3% 9.6% 9.6% 13.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 9.3
12-8 13.4% 6.0% 6.0% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 12.6
11-9 14.9% 4.2% 4.2% 13.5 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 14.3
10-10 14.7% 2.6% 2.6% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 14.3
9-11 12.2% 1.8% 1.8% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 12.0
8-12 9.7% 1.2% 1.2% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.6
7-13 6.1% 0.2% 0.2% 15.6 0.0 0.0 6.1
6-14 3.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.8
5-15 1.8% 1.8
4-16 0.8% 0.8
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 0.1 1.5 2.3 1.1 0.3 0.0 94.7 0.0%