UC Santa Barbara
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.5#148
Expected Predictive Rating+3.5#126
Pace64.3#315
Improvement-0.4#222

Offense
Total Offense+3.3#90
First Shot+3.1#98
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#164
Layup/Dunks-3.1#285
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#134
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#124
Freethrows+3.5#29
Improvement-2.7#355

Defense
Total Defense-2.8#265
First Shot-2.2#239
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#239
Layups/Dunks+2.2#96
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#249
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#217
Freethrows-2.7#319
Improvement+2.3#25
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.8% 11.6% 6.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.3 13.7
.500 or above 87.3% 90.1% 73.5%
.500 or above in Conference 83.0% 86.5% 66.1%
Conference Champion 12.0% 13.4% 4.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.5% 2.7%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round10.8% 11.6% 6.6%
Second Round0.9% 1.0% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Bakersfield (Home) - 83.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 35 - 56 - 9
Quad 413 - 319 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 185 San Jose St. W 85-74 70%     1 - 0 +6.2 +19.8 -12.3
  Tue, Nov 11 274 @Sacramento St. W 92-87 64%     2 - 0 +1.8 +14.2 -12.6
  Mon, Nov 17 143 Loyola Marymount L 74-78 OT 59%     2 - 1 -5.7 -1.0 -4.5
  Sat, Nov 22 105 @Nevada L 64-77 26%     2 - 2 -5.7 -3.5 -2.5
  Fri, Nov 28 299 Lehigh W 72-70 78%     3 - 2 -5.7 +2.9 -8.4
  Sat, Nov 29 114 Seattle W 74-71 39%     4 - 2 +6.5 +13.0 -6.2
  Thu, Dec 4 286 Long Beach St. W 84-77 OT 83%     5 - 2 1 - 0 -2.8 +1.9 -5.0
  Sat, Dec 6 280 Cal St. Bakersfield W 79-69 83%    
  Sat, Dec 13 90 Utah Valley L 70-75 31%    
  Wed, Dec 17 264 @Green Bay W 74-71 62%    
  Mon, Dec 22 270 Portland W 80-70 81%    
  Thu, Jan 1 303 @Cal St. Fullerton W 84-79 69%    
  Sat, Jan 3 253 @Cal St. Northridge W 80-77 60%    
  Thu, Jan 8 168 UC Davis W 73-69 66%    
  Thu, Jan 15 280 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 76-72 64%    
  Sat, Jan 17 108 Hawaii L 73-74 47%    
  Thu, Jan 22 243 Cal Poly W 85-77 77%    
  Sat, Jan 24 286 @Long Beach St. W 74-70 65%    
  Thu, Jan 29 102 @UC San Diego L 71-78 26%    
  Sat, Jan 31 303 Cal St. Fullerton W 87-76 84%    
  Thu, Feb 5 168 @UC Davis L 70-72 45%    
  Sat, Feb 7 125 UC Irvine W 70-69 53%    
  Thu, Feb 12 271 @UC Riverside W 75-71 63%    
  Sat, Feb 14 243 @Cal Poly W 82-80 58%    
  Thu, Feb 19 253 Cal St. Northridge W 83-74 78%    
  Sun, Feb 22 108 @Hawaii L 70-77 28%    
  Thu, Feb 26 271 UC Riverside W 78-68 80%    
  Sat, Feb 28 125 @UC Irvine L 67-72 32%    
  Sat, Mar 7 102 UC San Diego L 74-75 46%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.4 3.2 3.1 1.6 0.5 0.1 12.0 1st
2nd 0.4 2.0 4.6 5.2 2.7 0.7 0.1 15.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 3.5 6.5 5.5 2.0 0.2 0.0 18.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 4.6 6.9 4.7 1.2 0.1 18.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 4.3 5.1 2.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 14.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 3.2 3.5 1.2 0.1 9.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.2 2.2 0.7 0.0 5.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.2 0.4 0.0 3.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.2 1.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.7 4.8 7.2 9.8 11.7 13.5 13.9 12.0 9.7 6.2 3.8 1.7 0.5 0.1 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
18-2 95.6% 1.6    1.4 0.2
17-3 81.5% 3.1    2.3 0.8 0.0
16-4 52.4% 3.2    1.7 1.4 0.2 0.0
15-5 25.1% 2.4    0.9 0.9 0.6 0.1
14-6 6.3% 0.8    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
13-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 12.0% 12.0 7.0 3.7 1.1 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 51.4% 51.4% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
19-1 0.5% 56.4% 56.4% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
18-2 1.7% 34.5% 34.5% 12.3 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.1
17-3 3.8% 30.6% 30.6% 12.6 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.1 2.7
16-4 6.2% 27.5% 27.5% 12.9 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.3 4.5
15-5 9.7% 21.2% 21.2% 13.3 0.2 1.0 0.7 0.1 7.6
14-6 12.0% 14.9% 14.9% 13.5 0.1 0.8 0.7 0.2 10.2
13-7 13.9% 10.6% 10.6% 13.8 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.2 12.4
12-8 13.5% 5.8% 5.8% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 12.8
11-9 11.7% 4.1% 4.1% 14.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 11.2
10-10 9.8% 2.2% 2.2% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.6
9-11 7.2% 1.5% 1.5% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.1
8-12 4.8% 1.0% 1.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 4.8
7-13 2.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.7
6-14 1.3% 1.3
5-15 0.6% 0.6
4-16 0.3% 0.3
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 10.8% 10.8% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.3 3.2 1.1 0.1 89.2 0.0%