Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
65 UC San Diego 42.7%   12   15 - 4 8 - 2 24 - 6 16 - 4 +8.2      +3.5 78 +4.7 58 65.6 249 +7.8 73 +6.6 2
67 UC Irvine 43.5%   19 - 3 10 - 1 26 - 5 17 - 3 +8.0      0.0 181 +8.0 20 72.3 81 +11.6 50 +12.5 1
127 Cal St. Northridge 6.1%   13 - 7 7 - 4 19 - 10 13 - 7 +2.1      +0.2 179 +1.9 119 79.6 8 +1.9 142 +1.8 4
158 UC Santa Barbara 2.7%   12 - 8 6 - 5 17 - 12 11 - 9 +0.4      +1.1 149 -0.7 195 64.0 298 -0.6 182 -1.0 6
163 UC Riverside 4.6%   13 - 8 8 - 3 18 - 12 13 - 7 +0.2      +0.5 168 -0.3 180 66.9 218 +5.5 90 +6.1 3
180 Hawaii 1.5%   11 - 9 5 - 6 15 - 14 9 - 11 -0.9      -0.9 203 0.0 167 65.3 260 -0.7 183 -3.9 7
216 UC Davis 0.6%   10 - 10 6 - 5 14 - 15 10 - 10 -3.1      -5.9 326 +2.8 98 69.0 161 -0.5 177 -0.9 5
258 Cal St. Bakersfield 0.1%   8 - 13 4 - 7 11 - 19 7 - 13 -5.6      -1.6 220 -4.0 292 65.4 259 -4.5 237 -4.6 8
276 Cal Poly 0.1%   7 - 15 2 - 9 10 - 21 5 - 15 -6.4      -2.0 229 -4.4 303 81.7 3 -4.0 229 -9.1 10
305 Long Beach St. 0.0%   5 - 16 3 - 8 7 - 23 5 - 15 -8.2      -2.6 241 -5.6 333 63.0 317 -8.0 297 -7.2 9
317 Cal St. Fullerton 0.0%   4 - 17 1 - 10 6 - 24 3 - 17 -9.2      -5.9 324 -3.3 272 67.7 200 -9.9 321 -15.4 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
UC San Diego 1.7 37.9 55.3 5.7 0.9 0.1 0.0
UC Irvine 1.2 78.3 20.2 1.3 0.2
Cal St. Northridge 3.7 0.8 6.5 36.4 37.7 13.2 4.3 1.0 0.1
UC Santa Barbara 4.9 0.1 0.7 11.4 23.9 37.4 18.1 7.0 1.3 0.2 0.0
UC Riverside 3.3 1.6 12.4 53.1 24.0 6.6 1.9 0.5 0.0
Hawaii 6.2 0.1 2.0 7.5 19.3 28.9 30.4 9.7 2.0 0.3
UC Davis 5.9 0.3 2.8 9.2 21.5 33.2 24.8 7.4 0.8 0.0
Cal St. Bakersfield 7.7 0.1 0.7 3.9 9.9 20.6 43.3 16.2 5.0 0.3
Cal Poly 9.1 0.0 0.3 1.1 5.5 19.8 37.1 28.1 8.1
Long Beach St. 9.1 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.5 18.1 37.2 35.3 3.5
Cal St. Fullerton 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.7 6.8 19.4 72.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
UC San Diego 16 - 4 0.0 0.5 2.3 7.8 18.5 31.2 29.0 10.7
UC Irvine 17 - 3 0.0 0.5 2.6 8.0 17.8 30.4 28.1 12.6
Cal St. Northridge 13 - 7 0.2 1.8 6.1 15.1 25.0 26.5 17.7 6.7 1.0
UC Santa Barbara 11 - 9 0.1 0.9 4.0 12.0 21.4 26.2 21.8 10.3 2.9 0.4
UC Riverside 13 - 7 0.0 0.6 2.8 8.3 18.5 25.4 24.1 14.9 4.8 0.6
Hawaii 9 - 11 0.3 2.4 8.7 18.3 26.0 22.8 14.8 5.2 1.4 0.1
UC Davis 10 - 10 1.0 6.5 15.8 24.7 24.5 16.9 7.7 2.4 0.4 0.0
Cal St. Bakersfield 7 - 13 1.8 8.8 20.1 26.0 22.4 13.3 5.8 1.5 0.3 0.1
Cal Poly 5 - 15 1.3 7.6 17.4 25.1 24.5 15.3 7.0 1.6 0.2 0.0
Long Beach St. 5 - 15 6.0 19.8 29.1 25.5 13.2 5.0 1.2 0.1 0.0
Cal St. Fullerton 3 - 17 10.3 25.2 30.9 21.1 8.8 3.0 0.6 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
UC San Diego 37.9% 20.8 16.4 0.7 0.0
UC Irvine 78.3% 60.9 16.7 0.7 0.0
Cal St. Northridge 0.8% 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0
UC Santa Barbara 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
UC Riverside 1.6% 0.3 0.8 0.5
Hawaii
UC Davis
Cal St. Bakersfield
Cal Poly
Long Beach St.
Cal St. Fullerton


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
UC San Diego 42.7% 42.4% 0.4% 12   0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.7 17.2 21.9 1.1 0.0 57.3 0.6%
UC Irvine 43.5% 42.0% 1.5% 0.1 0.2 1.0 2.5 23.6 15.6 0.4 0.0 56.5 2.6%
Cal St. Northridge 6.1% 6.1% 0.0% 0.2 2.1 2.9 0.9 0.1 93.9 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.5 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 97.3 0.0%
UC Riverside 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.1 1.5 2.1 0.8 0.1 95.4 0.0%
Hawaii 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 98.5 0.0%
UC Davis 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 99.5 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Cal Poly 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Long Beach St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
UC San Diego 42.7% 0.3% 42.6% 10.3% 2.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Irvine 43.5% 1.4% 42.7% 10.4% 2.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 6.1% 0.0% 6.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 2.7% 0.0% 2.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Riverside 4.6% 0.0% 4.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hawaii 1.5% 0.0% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Davis 0.6% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal Poly 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Long Beach St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 98.1 1.9
1st Round 100.0% 1.0 0.0 99.1 0.9
2nd Round 21.6% 0.2 78.4 21.6 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 4.7% 0.0 95.3 4.7
Elite Eight 0.9% 0.0 99.1 0.9
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0