Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
102 Hawaii 39.5%   13   15 - 5 9 - 3 +4.9      -1.2 201 +6.1 38 73.2 63 +4.0 102 +4.7 2
119 UC Irvine 25.2%   14 - 8 9 - 3 +2.9      -3.0 256 +5.9 40 71.3 112 +2.2 127 +5.2 1
133 UC Santa Barbara 16.2%   14 - 8 9 - 4 +1.8      +4.1 78 -2.3 247 63.5 320 +1.2 141 +2.0 3
139 UC San Diego 7.4%   14 - 9 6 - 7 +1.2      -1.0 191 +2.2 105 68.4 192 +1.6 138 -2.8 7
180 UC Davis 4.3%   13 - 9 8 - 5 -1.3      -0.8 183 -0.5 187 70.7 123 +0.8 147 -0.2 5
186 Cal St. Northridge 5.2%   13 - 10 8 - 5 -1.6      -0.5 171 -1.1 209 81.0 5 +0.1 159 +0.8 4
210 Cal St. Fullerton 1.6%   10 - 13 7 - 6 -2.9      -2.8 248 0.0 170 80.5 7 -2.1 206 -1.7 6
251 Long Beach St. 0.3%   6 - 16 4 - 8 -5.0      -2.5 236 -2.5 254 69.0 172 -6.9 273 -6.3 9
265 Cal Poly 0.3%   7 - 16 5 - 8 -5.9      -1.9 217 -4.0 298 82.7 1 -5.7 254 -5.2 8
293 UC Riverside 0.0%   6 - 17 3 - 10 -7.7      -4.6 295 -3.1 272 68.4 193 -7.3 284 -9.1 10
322 Cal St. Bakersfield 0.0%   6 - 17 2 - 11 -10.2      -5.9 321 -4.3 303 72.5 76 -8.6 303 -11.0 11


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Thu, Feb 12 180 UC Davis 71 139 UC San Diego 76 70%   
Thu, Feb 12 210 Cal St. Fullerton 78 251 Long Beach St. 79 53%   
Thu, Feb 12 265 Cal Poly 76 119 UC Irvine 82 71%   
Thu, Feb 12 293 UC Riverside 70 133 UC Santa Barbara 77 73%   
Thu, Feb 12 322 Cal St. Bakersfield 68 102 Hawaii 80 87%   
Sat, Feb 14 186 Cal St. Northridge 77 102 Hawaii 81 63%   
Sat, Feb 14 210 Cal St. Fullerton 71 119 UC Irvine 80 80%   
Sat, Feb 14 251 Long Beach St. 72 180 UC Davis 79 74%   
Sat, Feb 14 265 Cal Poly 80 133 UC Santa Barbara 84 67%   
Sat, Feb 14 293 UC Riverside 66 139 UC San Diego 77 87%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Hawaii 1.4 67.3 24.9 6.0 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
UC Irvine 1.8 45.4 37.4 12.4 3.1 1.2 0.3 0.1
UC Santa Barbara 2.8 13.6 24.9 42.8 12.1 4.8 1.6 0.3 0.0
UC San Diego 5.3 0.1 1.2 7.5 19.4 25.4 26.3 17.1 2.8 0.3 0.0
UC Davis 4.6 1.1 4.5 14.4 28.9 24.2 16.9 8.5 1.6 0.1
Cal St. Northridge 4.3 2.5 6.3 19.2 30.6 23.0 12.8 5.2 0.5 0.0
Cal St. Fullerton 5.8 0.1 0.8 4.5 14.1 17.9 24.3 30.9 6.7 0.7 0.0
Long Beach St. 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.8 4.8 12.2 36.8 35.2 7.5 1.0
Cal Poly 8.2 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.8 11.6 47.8 32.5 4.0 0.3
UC Riverside 9.8 0.2 0.4 5.0 21.0 57.5 15.9
Cal St. Bakersfield 10.5 0.0 0.1 1.8 7.9 25.2 64.9

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Hawaii 15 - 5 21 - 7 0.0 0.3 1.9 6.5 17.4 29.6 29.9 14.4
UC Irvine 15 - 5 20 - 10 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.9 13.4 23.1 27.4 21.5 8.0
UC Santa Barbara 13 - 7 18 - 11 0.1 1.5 7.2 17.6 28.4 28.9 13.4 2.8
UC San Diego 11 - 9 19 - 11 0.1 0.5 4.2 14.6 27.8 30.8 17.9 4.2
UC Davis 11 - 9 16 - 13 1.5 8.2 20.1 26.9 24.9 13.6 4.3 0.7
Cal St. Northridge 12 - 8 17 - 13 0.8 5.6 15.4 26.4 26.2 17.6 6.5 1.4
Cal St. Fullerton 10 - 10 13 - 17 2.3 10.5 23.4 28.0 22.2 10.3 3.0 0.3
Long Beach St. 7 - 13 9 - 21 2.2 10.3 20.8 25.9 21.6 12.8 5.2 1.2 0.1
Cal Poly 7 - 13 9 - 21 4.1 19.6 33.2 27.2 12.3 3.2 0.5 0.0
UC Riverside 5 - 15 8 - 22 7.4 25.5 33.0 23.7 8.5 1.8 0.3 0.0
Cal St. Bakersfield 4 - 16 8 - 22 12.8 29.5 30.9 17.5 7.1 2.0 0.2 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Hawaii 67.3% 43.9 20.1 2.9 0.3 0.1
UC Irvine 45.4% 24.5 17.8 2.7 0.3 0.1
UC Santa Barbara 13.6% 4.9 5.9 2.4 0.3 0.1
UC San Diego 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
UC Davis 1.1% 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0
Cal St. Northridge 2.5% 0.4 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.1
Cal St. Fullerton 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Long Beach St.
Cal Poly
UC Riverside
Cal St. Bakersfield


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Hawaii 39.5% 39.5% 0.0% 13   1.2 14.7 19.3 4.2 0.1 60.5 0.0%
UC Irvine 25.2% 25.2% 0.0% 0.2 4.7 13.5 6.6 0.4 74.8 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 16.2% 16.2% 0.0% 0.1 2.1 7.8 5.6 0.6 83.8 0.0%
UC San Diego 7.4% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0 1.1 3.8 2.1 0.3 0.0 92.6 0.0%
UC Davis 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 0.3 1.9 1.8 0.4 0.0 95.7 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 0.1 1.0 2.5 1.5 0.1 94.9 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.4 98.4 0.0%
Long Beach St. 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%
Cal Poly 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3 99.7 0.0%
UC Riverside 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 99.8% 1.0 0.2 99.8
2nd Round 7.2% 0.1 92.8 7.2
Sweet Sixteen 1.1% 0.0 99.0 1.1
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Hawaii 39.5% 0.0% 39.5% 4.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Irvine 25.2% 0.0% 25.2% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 16.2% 0.0% 16.2% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC San Diego 7.4% 0.0% 7.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Davis 4.3% 0.0% 4.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 5.2% 0.0% 5.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 1.6% 0.2% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Long Beach St. 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal Poly 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Riverside 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%