Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
106 Hawaii 32.6%   13   11 - 4 5 - 2 +4.4      -2.0 225 +6.4 37 70.8 131 +3.1 118 +4.2 1
109 UC San Diego 25.9%   13 - 4 5 - 3 +3.9      +2.5 111 +1.4 122 67.7 219 +6.0 89 -0.3 3
123 UC Irvine 21.3%   11 - 7 6 - 2 +2.5      -2.7 247 +5.1 49 70.8 129 +1.2 146 +3.6 2
144 UC Santa Barbara 11.5%   10 - 7 5 - 3 +0.9      +4.1 81 -3.2 273 63.5 323 -0.9 177 -1.5 4
181 UC Davis 4.2%   9 - 8 4 - 4 -1.5      -0.4 177 -1.0 208 71.1 116 +0.2 161 -2.0 5
207 Cal St. Northridge 2.4%   9 - 9 4 - 4 -2.9      -1.3 203 -1.6 222 80.2 8 -1.3 188 -2.2 6
229 Cal St. Fullerton 1.2%   7 - 12 4 - 5 -3.9      -3.0 256 -0.9 198 81.5 6 -3.3 220 -3.3 8
250 Long Beach St. 0.8%   6 - 12 4 - 4 -4.9      -2.6 245 -2.3 248 68.3 202 -5.1 238 -2.5 7
281 Cal Poly 0.2%   5 - 13 3 - 5 -6.7      -3.4 268 -3.3 276 84.6 1 -5.3 245 -4.3 9
293 UC Riverside 0.1%   5 - 13 2 - 6 -7.6      -4.2 286 -3.5 277 68.2 208 -6.2 265 -7.6 11
299 Cal St. Bakersfield 0.1%   6 - 12 2 - 6 -7.8      -5.0 304 -2.8 262 72.4 85 -6.1 264 -7.3 10


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Thu, Jan 22 181 UC Davis 74 109 UC San Diego 80   
Thu, Jan 22 123 UC Irvine 80 293 UC Riverside 66   
Thu, Jan 22 229 Cal St. Fullerton 71 250 Long Beach St. 61   
Thu, Jan 22 281 Cal Poly 67 144 UC Santa Barbara 107   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Fri, Jan 23 299 Cal St. Bakersfield 64 106 Hawaii 79 92%   
Sat, Jan 24 123 UC Irvine 69 109 UC San Diego 73 67%   
Sat, Jan 24 250 Long Beach St. 73 144 UC Santa Barbara 75 61%   
Sat, Jan 24 281 Cal Poly 89 229 Cal St. Fullerton 88 51%   
Sat, Jan 24 181 UC Davis 79 293 UC Riverside 70 81%   
Sun, Jan 25 207 Cal St. Northridge 71 106 Hawaii 82 83%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Hawaii 1.7 57.6 24.2 11.1 4.3 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
UC San Diego 2.6 24.0 28.9 24.9 13.1 5.9 2.1 0.9 0.2 0.1
UC Irvine 2.3 34.3 28.9 20.3 9.8 4.1 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
UC Santa Barbara 3.8 8.2 14.5 20.9 24.4 16.0 8.8 4.4 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.0
UC Davis 5.2 1.6 4.9 11.3 19.6 22.3 16.9 11.5 7.0 3.4 1.2 0.4
Cal St. Northridge 5.8 1.0 3.3 7.2 14.1 19.1 19.9 16.1 10.4 5.7 2.7 0.8
Cal St. Fullerton 6.6 0.2 1.0 3.2 8.3 14.3 19.9 20.5 16.6 10.0 4.5 1.6
Long Beach St. 6.9 0.3 1.0 3.1 7.5 12.8 16.5 19.2 18.6 12.7 6.3 2.0
Cal Poly 8.3 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.9 4.9 8.9 13.9 19.4 23.3 16.9 10.1
UC Riverside 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.2 6.5 11.0 18.3 29.7 29.2
Cal St. Bakersfield 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 2.9 6.7 11.1 18.3 26.6 32.6

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Hawaii 15 - 5 21 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.8 6.6 12.2 19.1 22.1 19.8 12.2 3.9
UC San Diego 13 - 7 22 - 8 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.8 8.8 15.9 21.4 22.8 16.6 7.5 1.7
UC Irvine 14 - 6 19 - 11 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.7 6.6 12.4 18.9 21.6 18.7 11.9 5.0 1.1
UC Santa Barbara 12 - 8 17 - 12 0.0 0.2 0.8 3.0 7.4 13.4 18.7 20.8 17.6 11.0 5.4 1.7 0.2
UC Davis 10 - 10 15 - 14 0.1 0.4 1.5 4.6 10.3 16.1 19.7 19.6 15.2 8.5 3.4 0.8 0.1
Cal St. Northridge 10 - 10 15 - 15 0.1 1.0 3.6 8.1 14.5 19.3 19.6 16.0 10.6 5.0 1.8 0.4 0.1
Cal St. Fullerton 9 - 11 12 - 18 0.2 1.9 6.4 13.2 20.3 21.9 18.0 11.0 5.1 1.6 0.4 0.0
Long Beach St. 9 - 11 11 - 19 0.6 3.4 9.2 15.6 20.2 19.8 15.2 9.6 4.4 1.5 0.5 0.0 0.0
Cal Poly 7 - 13 9 - 21 1.0 4.7 11.3 18.9 22.3 19.1 12.8 6.5 2.6 0.7 0.2 0.0
UC Riverside 6 - 14 9 - 21 1.5 6.5 14.6 21.7 22.4 16.9 10.0 4.5 1.5 0.4 0.1
Cal St. Bakersfield 6 - 14 10 - 20 1.8 7.0 15.2 21.6 21.6 17.0 9.7 4.2 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Hawaii 57.6% 40.1 14.3 2.9 0.4 0.0 0.0
UC San Diego 24.0% 12.3 8.8 2.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
UC Irvine 34.3% 20.5 10.8 2.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
UC Santa Barbara 8.2% 3.3 3.2 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
UC Davis 1.6% 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Northridge 1.0% 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
Cal St. Fullerton 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Long Beach St. 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Cal Poly 0.0% 0.0 0.0
UC Riverside
Cal St. Bakersfield 0.0% 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Hawaii 32.6% 32.6% 0.0% 13   0.0 1.4 9.9 15.7 5.2 0.4 0.0 67.4 0.0%
UC San Diego 25.9% 25.9% 0.0% 0.0 1.0 11.4 11.3 2.1 0.1 0.0 74.1 0.0%
UC Irvine 21.3% 21.3% 0.0% 0.1 3.3 10.0 6.7 1.1 0.0 78.7 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 11.5% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0 1.0 4.3 4.7 1.4 0.1 88.5 0.0%
UC Davis 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.6 0.7 0.0 95.8 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.1 97.6 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 98.8 0.0%
Long Beach St. 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 99.2 0.0%
Cal Poly 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.8 0.0%
UC Riverside 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 99.7% 1.0 0.3 99.7
2nd Round 7.9% 0.1 92.1 7.9
Sweet Sixteen 1.1% 0.0 98.9 1.1
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Hawaii 32.6% 0.0% 32.6% 3.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC San Diego 25.9% 0.0% 25.9% 2.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Irvine 21.3% 0.0% 21.3% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 11.5% 0.0% 11.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Davis 4.2% 0.0% 4.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 2.4% 0.0% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 1.2% 0.2% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Long Beach St. 0.8% 0.4% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal Poly 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Riverside 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%