Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
47 UC San Diego 60.0%   12   25 - 4 18 - 2 26 - 4 18 - 2 +11.3      +5.0 64 +6.3 42 65.3 259 +10.8 50 +11.8 1
70 UC Irvine 34.8%   26 - 5 17 - 3 26 - 5 17 - 3 +7.8      +0.5 159 +7.3 27 71.2 92 +10.4 54 +9.8 2
113 Cal St. Northridge 5.4%   20 - 9 14 - 6 20 - 9 14 - 6 +3.3      +2.0 119 +1.4 128 79.0 8 +3.9 111 +4.5 4
142 UC Riverside 3.6%   19 - 11 14 - 6 19 - 11 14 - 6 +1.0      +2.0 117 -1.0 203 67.4 200 +5.1 97 +4.8 3
152 UC Santa Barbara 1.2%   17 - 12 11 - 9 18 - 12 11 - 9 +0.4      +1.9 120 -1.5 219 64.4 283 0.0 165 +0.2 5
194 Cal Poly 0.6%   13 - 18 8 - 12 14 - 18 8 - 12 -1.8      +0.3 165 -2.1 234 85.0 1 -2.1 196 -3.9 8
221 Hawaii 0.0%   13 - 16 7 - 13 13 - 16 7 - 13 -3.4      -2.6 240 -0.8 192 65.0 271 -2.7 207 -5.2 9
236 UC Davis 0.2%   13 - 16 9 - 11 13 - 17 9 - 11 -4.0      -6.5 334 +2.4 100 67.6 196 -1.7 184 -2.1 6
245 Cal St. Bakersfield 0.1%   12 - 18 8 - 12 12 - 19 8 - 12 -4.6      -0.3 187 -4.3 304 65.6 249 -3.9 232 -3.5 7
294 Long Beach St. 0.0%   5 - 25 3 - 17 5 - 25 3 - 17 -7.7      -3.2 255 -4.5 307 62.1 330 -11.0 329 -12.2 10
351 Cal St. Fullerton 0.0%   4 - 26 1 - 19 4 - 26 1 - 19 -13.3      -9.4 359 -3.9 288 69.6 131 -11.7 336 -17.8 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
UC San Diego 1.0 100.0
UC Irvine 2.0 100.0
Cal St. Northridge 3.0 100.0
UC Riverside 3.0 100.0
UC Santa Barbara 5.0 100.0
Cal Poly 7.0 100.0
Hawaii 9.0 100.0
UC Davis 6.0 100.0
Cal St. Bakersfield 7.0 100.0
Long Beach St. 10.0 100.0
Cal St. Fullerton 11.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
UC San Diego 18 - 2 100.0
UC Irvine 17 - 3 100.0
Cal St. Northridge 14 - 6 100.0
UC Riverside 14 - 6 100.0
UC Santa Barbara 11 - 9 100.0
Cal Poly 8 - 12 100.0
Hawaii 7 - 13 100.0
UC Davis 9 - 11 100.0
Cal St. Bakersfield 8 - 12 100.0
Long Beach St. 3 - 17 100.0
Cal St. Fullerton 1 - 19 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
UC San Diego 100.0% 100.0
UC Irvine
Cal St. Northridge
UC Riverside
UC Santa Barbara
Cal Poly
Hawaii
UC Davis
Cal St. Bakersfield
Long Beach St.
Cal St. Fullerton


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
UC San Diego 60.0% 55.2% 4.8% 12   0.1 0.6 5.0 40.6 13.8 40.0 10.7%
UC Irvine 34.8% 33.7% 1.1% 0.2 15.7 18.8 0.0 65.2 1.6%
Cal St. Northridge 5.4% 5.4% 0.0% 0.1 4.0 1.3 0.0 94.6 0.0%
UC Riverside 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0 2.3 1.3 0.1 96.4 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.1 0.8 0.4 98.8 0.0%
Cal Poly 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 99.4 0.0%
Hawaii 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
UC Davis 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 0.0 99.8 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 100.0 0.0%
Long Beach St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
UC San Diego 60.0% 4.5% 57.7% 18.9% 5.6% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Irvine 34.8% 1.1% 34.1% 7.1% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 5.4% 0.0% 5.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Riverside 3.6% 0.0% 3.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 1.2% 0.0% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal Poly 0.6% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hawaii 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Davis 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Long Beach St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.1 94.1 5.9 0.0
1st Round 99.9% 1.0 0.1 97.1 2.8
2nd Round 26.6% 0.3 73.4 26.4 0.2
Sweet Sixteen 7.1% 0.1 92.9 7.1
Elite Eight 1.5% 0.0 98.5 1.5
Final Four 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0