UC Riverside
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.6 #293
Expected Predictive Rating -6.2 #265
Pace 68.2 #208
Improvement -0.9 #233

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #286 C F D C C
Defense #277 D C+ D- C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #84 1.14 #197 +1.6 #119
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #163 0.75 #181 +0.2 #165
Three Pointers 37% #273 1.02 #175 -2.1 #261
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #183 -0.3 #182
Freethrows 17.1 #202 75% #97 12.9 #165
Second Chance 24.2% #333 0.92 #323 0.22 #347
Turnovers 18.2% #290
Total Offense -4.2 #286

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #56 1.23 #270 -4.2 #318
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #111 0.91 #355 -2.4 #335
Three Pointers 35% #341 1.03 #198 +3.2 #62
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #286 -3.5 #286
Freethrows 18.5 #245 69% #54 12.8 #203
Second Chance 30.9% #202 0.96 #71 0.30 #121
Turnovers 14.1% #314
Total Defense -3.5 #277

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.4% #168 0.3% #187
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.9% #196 6.5% #301
Possession Length 18.1 #257 16.5 #48
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #333 0.20 #269
Improvement -1.5 #274 +0.6 #142

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.6 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 2.0% 6.6% 0.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 45.9% 25.8% 50.7%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Davis (Away) - 19.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 32 - 92 - 16
Quad 47 - 69 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 297 @North Dakota W 74 - 70 39% +5  1 - 0 -1 -3 C F F +3 F A+ D
 Tue, Nov 11 51 @New Mexico L 68 - 82 3% -5  1 - 1 -0 +7 A+ F D+ -8 D+ B+ F
 Sat, Nov 15 297 North Dakota L 74 - 76 62% -0  1 - 2 -13 -10 C F F -3 F A+ D+
 Tue, Nov 18 142 @California Baptist L 57 - 80 14% -15  1 - 3 -19 -17 F F F +0 C+ A- C-
 Fri, Nov 21 209 @San Diego W 85 - 71 24% +10  2 - 3 +14 +14 A+ C A -0 A C- C-
 Mon, Nov 24 287 Grambling St. W 83 - 74 60% -1  3 - 3 -1 +8 A+ F C- -9 B C- F
 Sat, Nov 29 233 @Utah Tech L 69 - 77 26% -4  3 - 4 -9 +4 B- C D -13 F D- F
 Thu, Dec 4 123 @UC Irvine L 60 - 73 12% -11  3 - 5 0 - 1 -8 -5 F F A- -3 F A+ C-
 Sat, Dec 6 281 @Cal Poly W 88 - 84 35% +7  4 - 5 1 - 1 +0 +12 B D+ A+ -11 F A+ D-
 Sat, Dec 13 12 @BYU L 53 - 100 1% -14  4 - 6 -25 -14 C- F F -8 F A+ C
 Sat, Dec 20 131 @St. Thomas L 78 - 92 13% -7  4 - 7 -9 +8 B- F C -17 F C- F
 Tue, Dec 23 36 @UCLA L 65 - 97 2% -14  4 - 8 -16 -7 B- F F -5 B- F D+
 Thu, Jan 1 106 Hawaii L 45 - 88 20% -21  4 - 9 1 - 2 -42 -18 F F C- -28 F F C
 Thu, Jan 8 299 @Cal St. Bakersfield L 66 - 67 39% -0  4 - 10 1 - 3 -6 -8 C F F +2 A- F B
 Sat, Jan 10 109 UC San Diego L 66 - 69 21% +1  4 - 11 1 - 4 -2 -1 D- B F -1 C- B- A+
 Thu, Jan 15 250 @Long Beach St. L 73 - 88 29% -10  4 - 12 1 - 5 -17 +2 F B- A+ -19 F C F
 Sat, Jan 17 229 Cal St. Fullerton W 81 - 72 47% +9  5 - 12 2 - 5 +2 -2 A- F F +3 A+ B- B
 Thu, Jan 22 123 UC Irvine L 66 - 80 25% -10  5 - 13 2 - 6 -15 -4 F B+ D- -11 D+ F B
 Sat, Jan 24 181 @UC Davis L 70 - 79 19%
 Thu, Jan 29 250 Long Beach St. W 73 - 72 51%
 Sat, Jan 31 281 Cal Poly W 82 - 80 58%
 Thu, Feb 5 229 @Cal St. Fullerton L 75 - 82 26%
 Sat, Feb 7 207 @Cal St. Northridge L 75 - 83 24%
 Thu, Feb 12 144 UC Santa Barbara L 71 - 77 30%
 Sat, Feb 14 109 @UC San Diego L 66 - 80 9%
 Thu, Feb 19 299 Cal St. Bakersfield W 76 - 73 62%
 Sat, Feb 21 181 UC Davis L 73 - 76 38%
 Thu, Feb 26 144 @UC Santa Barbara L 68 - 80 14%
 Sat, Feb 28 207 Cal St. Northridge L 78 - 80 44%
 Fri, Mar 6 106 @Hawaii L 63 - 78 8%
Totals 9 - 21 6 - 14 -8 -4 C F D -3 D C+ D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.1 1.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 2.0 0.3 0.0 3.3 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 3.8 1.4 0.0 6.3 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 5.5 4.3 0.4 11.2 8th
9th 0.1 1.4 7.9 8.3 1.1 0.0 18.8 9th
10th 0.3 3.7 11.5 11.1 2.5 0.1 29.1 10th
11th 1.5 6.2 10.9 8.3 2.1 0.1 29.1 11th
Total 1.5 6.5 14.6 21.2 22.1 17.5 10.2 4.5 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 25.0% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0% 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.1
11-9 0.4% 4.0% 4.0% 15.0 0.0 0.4
10-10 1.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.6
9-11 4.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 4.4
8-12 10.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.1
7-13 17.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 17.4
6-14 22.1% 22.1
5-15 21.2% 21.2
4-16 14.6% 14.6
3-17 6.5% 6.5
2-18 1.5% 1.5
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.8 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.5%