Grambling St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.0 285
Expected Predictive Rating -7.2 278
Pace 66.8 236
Improvement -2.0 268

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D- #345 D D+ F+ B C
Defense C #157 C- D+ B D+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 144 55% 256 -0.4 188
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 170 31% 344 -1.3 248
Three Pointers 39% 219 31% 288 -2.4 271
1st FG Attempt 0.94 308 -4.1 307
Second Chance 27.9% 255 0.95 292 0.26 284
Turnovers 20.9% 350
Freethrows 0.34 68 73% 160 0.25 82
Total Offense -7.4 345

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 79 59% 217 -2.9 278
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 320 35% 84 +2.3 25
Three Pointers 42% 149 35% 214 -0.8 222
1st FG Attempt 1.05 225 -1.4 224
Second Chance 34.1% 316 1.02 159 0.35 264
Turnovers 19.3% 53
Freethrows 0.34 286 73% 216 0.24 281
Total Defense +0.3 157

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.1 184 +0.9 333
Shot Type Accuracy -4.1 313 +0.5 203
Possession Length 17.6 207 17.2 163
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 122 0.21 302
Improvement -5.8 #359 +3.8 #21

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12% 14% 10%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 34% 50% 21%
.500 or above in Conference 74% 89% 62%
Conference Champion 2% 3% 1%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four9% 10% 8%
First Round7% 9% 6%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Texas Southern (Away) - 45.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 31 - 31 - 6
Quad 414 - 1014 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 8 @Iowa St. L 62 - 102 1% -16  1% 0 - 1 F+ -16 D -5 C D- D D- -9 D+ D C+
 Sun, Nov 9 237 @Howard W 73 - 70 29% +1  52% 1 - 1 C+ +2 B +6 B A F D+ -4 F F A+
 Thu, Nov 13 241 Southern Miss W 75 - 70 52% +6  84% 2 - 1 C- -3 C- -2 A D- F C -0 A+ F D
 Tue, Nov 18 216 @San Diego L 68 - 78 25% -7  1% 2 - 2 D -10 F -12 F D+ C- B- +2 B- A+ A-
 Fri, Nov 21 138 @California Baptist L 59 - 72 15% -13  1% 2 - 3 D -9 D- -7 C F F C- -3 F B- A+
 Mon, Nov 24 293 @UC Riverside L 74 - 83 41% +1  53% 2 - 4 D- -14 C- -2 F C- A- F -12 F D+ B-
 Tue, Dec 2 174 @Tulane L 63 - 65 19% -0  32% 2 - 5 C +0 D+ -3 D+ B+ F B- +3 B+ D+ D-
 Mon, Dec 8 241 @Southern Miss L 60 - 68 30% +1  64% 2 - 6 D -10 F -13 D+ F F B- +4 D- C A+
 Thu, Dec 18 307 Norfolk St. W 80 - 68 56% +14  99% 3 - 6 C+ +3 C- -2 C+ F A B +5 B+ D D+
 Fri, Dec 19 248 Hampton W 81 - 72 41% +7  95% 4 - 6 C+ +4 A- +10 B+ A+ F D+ -5 F A+ A-
 Tue, Dec 23 39 @Ohio St. L 63 - 89 2% -13  1% 4 - 7 D -9 D -4 D- B F D -6 F A+ A
 Sat, Jan 3 336 Prairie View W 76 - 72 76% +4  92% 5 - 7 1 - 0 D -10 F -11 C- D F C +0 C+ F+ A+
 Mon, Jan 5 309 Texas Southern W 84 - 67 68% +9  87% 6 - 7 2 - 0 B- +5 C+ +3 B+ B D+ C+ +2 A F A
 Sat, Jan 10 227 @Bethune-Cookman L 65 - 74 27% -8  11% 6 - 8 2 - 1 D -10 F -13 D+ F F B +4 C+ F A
 Mon, Jan 12 328 @Florida A&M L 84 - 91 52% -3  24% 6 - 9 2 - 2 F+ -15 B- +4 C- B+ B F -19 F F B-
 Sat, Jan 17 264 Southern L 53 - 71 57% -11  0% 6 - 10 2 - 3 F -27 F -26 F C F C -1 D- A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 31 343 @Jackson St. W 69 - 66 58% +3  73% 7 - 10 3 - 3 D+ -6 D- -8 D F D- C+ +2 C C C-
 Mon, Feb 2 351 @Alcorn St. W 74 - 50 62% +13  96% 8 - 10 4 - 3 B+ +14 C +1 D B+ D- A+ +15 A+ C F
 Wed, Feb 4 313 Arkansas Pine Bluff L 64 - 67 69% -4  4% 8 - 11 4 - 4 F+ -15 F -16 F D D C+ +0 B F C+
 Sat, Feb 7 316 Alabama St. W 57 - 47 70% +3  62% 9 - 11 5 - 4 C- -3 F -17 F F C- A+ +15 A+ B C-
 Mon, Feb 9 305 Alabama A&M L 58 - 66 66% -10  0% 9 - 12 5 - 5 F -19 F -19 F C- D C -1 D+ C A-
 Sat, Feb 14 309 @Texas Southern L 70 - 71 45%
 Mon, Feb 16 336 @Prairie View W 75 - 74 55%
 Sat, Feb 21 264 @Southern L 69 - 73 35%
 Mon, Feb 23 365 Mississippi Valley W 77 - 57 97%
 Thu, Feb 26 227 Bethune-Cookman L 68 - 69 48%
 Sat, Feb 28 328 Florida A&M W 71 - 64 74%
 Tue, Mar 3 305 @Alabama A&M L 66 - 68 44%
 Thu, Mar 5 316 @Alabama St. L 69 - 70 49%
Totals 13 - 16 9 - 9 -7 D- -7 D D+ F+ C +0 C- D+ B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D- D+ D- D+ D 40% 21% 39% C D D+ D+ D+ F+ B C+ B C C- B- C- C 43% 16% 42% D C- D C D+ B D+ C D+
0.98 55% 31% 31% -4 0 0.94 28% 0.9 .26 21% .34 73% .25 1.08 59% 35% 35% 0 +1 1.05 34% 1.0 .35 19% .34 73% .25
Nov
6		 Iowa St. D C D D+ C 42% 36% 22% C- C F A- D- D A+ C- A+ D- C F F D+ 42% 9% 49% D- D+ D- C D C+ F A- F+
0.83 58% 31% 30% -4 -2 0.91 16% 1.2 .19 25% .41 70% .29 1.36 64% 60% 42% +11 +2 1.26 44% 1.1 .47 16% .46 62% .29
Nov
9		 Howard B C- F A+ B 48% 10% 43% B B B- A+ A F B+ D+ B- D+ C+ F F F 50% 18% 33% C- F F D F A+ C- F D
1.13 55% 0% 44% +2 +2 1.10 37% 1.4 .52 26% .40 68% .27 1.08 50% 57% 54% +9 +1 1.23 43% 1.2 .52 29% .35 81% .28
Nov
13		 Southern Miss C- B A+ A A- 54% 6% 40% A+ A F+ C- D- F D B+ C- C A+ A- A+ A+ 57% 14% 29% F A+ F F F D F A+ D
1.08 62% 67% 42% +9 +3 1.25 21% 1.0 .21 24% .30 75% .23 1.00 43% 29% 14% -18 +2 0.69 44% 1.2 .54 16% .49 62% .31
Nov
18		 San Diego F D- F+ F F 45% 32% 23% D- F B- F D+ C- A+ F A- B- F A+ C+ B- 22% 18% 60% C+ B- C A+ A+ A- F F F
0.92 52% 33% 18% -10 -1 0.81 38% 0.9 .33 20% .53 58% .31 1.05 90% 0% 33% 0 -1 1.00 30% 0.4 .12 22% .55 97% .53
Nov
21		 California Baptist D- B+ B F C 40% 18% 43% B- C F+ F F F A+ A+ A+ C- F F F+ F 61% 7% 32% F F B- C B- A+ D- C+ D
0.91 63% 43% 24% -4 +1 0.95 17% 0.0 .00 22% .46 91% .42 1.12 68% 67% 38% +10 +3 1.29 35% 0.9 .30 28% .37 71% .26
Nov
24		 UC Riverside C- F A+ D F 41% 27% 33% D F F+ A+ C- A- A+ C+ A+ F F B F F 50% 20% 30% D F B F D+ B- F D- F
1.07 40% 54% 31% -4 -1 0.92 23% 1.3 .29 12% .54 70% .38 1.20 73% 33% 46% +12 +1 1.27 24% 1.2 .28 20% .56 77% .43
Dec
2		 Tulane D+ A+ B F D+ 26% 17% 57% C- D+ C- A+ B+ F A+ C A B- B A+ C B+ 38% 22% 40% C+ B+ F A D+ D- C C+ C
1.02 73% 43% 25% -3 0 0.95 32% 1.3 .43 24% .43 70% .30 1.05 53% 20% 33% -6 0 0.89 31% 0.9 .29 11% .38 76% .29
Dec
8		 Southern Miss F D F A+ D 49% 22% 29% C+ D+ A+ F F F A+ F A B- F D A+ D 45% 26% 30% F+ D- D B+ C A+ A D A-
0.87 50% 0% 58% -2 +1 1.00 42% 0.4 .16 31% .52 60% .31 0.99 76% 42% 14% 0 0 1.02 34% 0.9 .31 25% .27 79% .21
Dec
18		 Norfolk St. C- A- F A B- 41% 19% 41% D+ C+ F C F A C- A- C+ B D+ A+ A+ A- 46% 26% 28% D+ B+ D- C- D D+ F+ A+ B+
1.08 73% 10% 41% +5 0 1.13 7% 1.0 .07 12% .34 77% .26 0.92 57% 23% 21% -10 0 0.82 34% 1.0 .34 18% .41 44% .18
Dec
19		 Hampton A- A- A+ F B 61% 15% 24% A B+ B+ A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ D+ F B F F 39% 28% 33% D+ F F A+ A+ A- F D- F
1.22 72% 50% 20% +5 +2 1.17 36% 1.3 .48 23% .58 77% .45 1.08 72% 31% 40% +7 -1 1.13 42% 0.4 .16 23% .45 78% .35
Dec
23		 Ohio St. D F B- F F+ 33% 26% 41% C+ D- B B B F A+ C A+ D F F D F 44% 20% 36% F+ F F A+ A+ A F F+ F
0.94 40% 42% 26% -10 -1 0.80 33% 1.1 .36 22% .44 74% .33 1.33 85% 78% 38% +22 +1 1.47 43% 0.6 .24 21% .47 84% .40
Jan
3		 Prairie View F A F A+ C+ 33% 37% 30% F C- D+ C- D F A+ F+ A+ C B A D+ C+ 33% 31% 35% C C+ F B- F+ A+ F D+ F
1.02 71% 25% 46% +5 -3 1.07 33% 1.0 .33 27% .64 66% .42 0.96 50% 27% 35% -5 -2 0.88 34% 0.9 .32 24% .48 78% .37
Jan
5		 Texas Southern C+ A F A+ A 25% 18% 57% D- B+ A D+ B D+ A D- B C+ A+ B A- A 34% 30% 36% B A D F F A A- F C+
1.20 73% 25% 44% +10 -1 1.20 43% 1.1 .46 17% .47 67% .31 0.96 41% 33% 28% -10 -2 0.78 30% 2.1 .63 23% .22 92% .20
Jan
10		 Bethune-Cookman F A- C+ F C- 41% 20% 39% D+ D+ D+ F F F A- B+ A B B- A D+ B- 48% 24% 28% C- C+ F+ F+ F A F+ C D-
0.87 65% 40% 21% -4 0 0.94 29% 0.2 .06 24% .39 77% .30 0.99 54% 25% 36% -4 0 0.94 33% 1.2 .38 23% .38 68% .26
Jan
12		 Florida A&M B- C D- B- C- 50% 18% 32% C+ C- D A+ B+ B A A A+ F F F C- F 28% 21% 51% C+ F F F F B- F F F
1.16 60% 33% 38% +2 +1 1.08 28% 1.4 .40 17% .43 85% .36 1.26 77% 70% 33% +12 -1 1.23 37% 1.3 .48 23% .47 81% .38
Jan
17		 Southern F F D F F 53% 9% 38% A+ F B- D C F A+ F+ A+ C B D F+ D+ 46% 10% 44% F D- B- A+ A+ B- D- A+ C-
0.76 28% 33% 23% -23 +3 0.62 35% 1.0 .35 33% .68 69% .47 1.02 50% 40% 38% -1 +2 1.04 28% 0.6 .17 19% .39 59% .23
Jan
31		 Jackson St. D- F F A+ D 29% 17% 54% D+ D C+ F F D- F+ C D- C+ D+ B B+ C 27% 27% 47% C+ C C C C C- F B- F
1.05 50% 13% 42% 0 0 1.02 38% 0.7 .25 18% .26 71% .19 1.00 58% 33% 29% -5 -2 0.89 26% 1.0 .26 18% .56 73% .41
Feb
2		 Alcorn St. C C+ F C+ D 43% 15% 43% C- D C- A+ B+ D- F C+ F A+ A A+ A+ A+ 49% 17% 34% F A+ B F+ C F F B+ F+
1.18 65% 29% 35% +2 +1 1.09 36% 1.5 .54 21% .24 75% .18 0.80 43% 0% 25% -18 +1 0.68 22% 1.0 .22 14% .35 63% .22
Feb
4		 Arkansas Pine Bluff F C+ A+ F F 40% 19% 40% C- F C+ F D D F C F C+ C A B+ B+ 39% 24% 37% C- B C- F F C+ F+ B D-
0.95 62% 50% 10% -11 0 0.81 37% 0.9 .34 18% .27 73% .20 0.99 56% 27% 29% -6 0 0.89 26% 1.4 .38 19% .38 71% .27
Feb
7		 Alabama St. F F D+ C- F 32% 7% 61% C+ F F D- F C- C D C- A+ A+ A+ A A+ 44% 15% 41% F A+ D A+ B C- A A+ A+
0.90 43% 33% 33% -6 +1 0.93 18% 1.0 .18 19% .35 72% .25 0.74 29% 13% 27% -21 +1 0.63 35% 0.6 .19 17% .19 50% .10
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
9		 Alabama A&M F F F F F 40% 11% 49% B- F D B+ C- D A+ A+ A+ C A- C- D- C- 45% 18% 36% F D+ C C C A- F C+ F
0.87 50% 0% 18% -19 +1 0.67 26% 1.1 .29 18% .49 89% .44 0.99 45% 38% 38% -4 +1 0.95 25% 1.0 .25 21% .46 71% .32



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.9 0.7 1.8 1st
2nd 0.4 5.2 4.1 0.5 10.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 5.3 7.7 1.3 0.1 14.3 3rd
4th 2.1 11.7 3.5 0.1 17.4 4th
5th 0.1 8.9 6.3 0.2 15.5 5th
6th 1.9 10.1 1.0 13.1 6th
7th 0.1 7.0 3.6 0.0 10.7 7th
8th 0.0 1.3 6.3 0.3 8.0 8th
9th 0.1 3.3 1.9 0.0 5.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.3 0.2 3.0 10th
11th 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.1 1.2 7.3 17.4 25.1 24.7 16.7 6.3 1.3 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 55.2% 0.7    0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 14.4% 0.9    0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1
11-7 0.9% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.8% 1.8 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 1.3% 24.0% 24.0% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 1.0
12-6 6.3% 18.9% 18.9% 15.8 0.0 0.2 1.0 5.1
11-7 16.7% 18.0% 18.0% 16.0 0.1 2.9 13.7
10-8 24.7% 14.8% 14.8% 16.0 0.1 3.6 21.1
9-9 25.1% 11.0% 11.0% 16.0 0.0 2.8 22.4
8-10 17.4% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.8 16.6
7-11 7.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.3
6-12 1.2% 1.2
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 11.8% 11.8% 0.0% 15.9 88.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 15.1 10.0 66.7 23.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%