Grambling St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.8#245
Expected Predictive Rating-3.4#222
Pace67.0#248
Improvement+1.7#82

Offense
Total Offense-3.8#274
First Shot-1.6#216
After Offensive Rebound-2.2#318
Layup/Dunks+0.3#174
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#220
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#304
Freethrows+2.6#48
Improvement+0.5#138

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#202
First Shot-0.6#183
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#226
Layups/Dunks-3.2#295
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#98
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#92
Freethrows-0.8#242
Improvement+1.2#105
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.9% 19.6% 12.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 68.4% 74.4% 49.2%
.500 or above in Conference 79.6% 84.8% 62.8%
Conference Champion 16.0% 19.0% 6.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.5%
First Four7.9% 8.1% 7.1%
First Round14.2% 15.8% 9.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Prairie View (Home) - 76.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 31 - 41 - 6
Quad 415 - 816 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Thu, Nov 6 3 @Iowa St. L 62-102 1%     0 - 1 -14.8 -1.7 -10.5
  Sun, Nov 9 265 @Howard W 73-70 42%     1 - 1 +0.3 +7.1 -6.5
  Thu, Nov 13 207 Southern Miss W 75-70 55%     2 - 1 -1.0 -0.6 -0.4
  Tue, Nov 18 260 @San Diego L 68-78 41%     2 - 2 -12.5 -10.3 -1.6
  Fri, Nov 21 134 @California Baptist L 59-72 18%     2 - 3 -8.3 -6.2 -3.2
  Mon, Nov 24 272 @UC Riverside L 74-83 43%     2 - 4 -12.0 -0.4 -11.7
  Tue, Dec 2 194 @Tulane L 63-65 29%     2 - 5 -1.2 -2.2 +0.8
  Mon, Dec 8 207 @Southern Miss L 60-68 32%     2 - 6 -8.0 -11.8 +3.6
  Thu, Dec 18 243 Norfolk St. W 80-68 50%     3 - 6 +7.2 +2.5 +4.0
  Fri, Dec 19 238 Hampton W 81-72 49%     4 - 6 +4.4 +10.3 -5.4
  Tue, Dec 23 31 @Ohio St. L 63-89 3%     4 - 7 -8.9 -0.1 -10.0
  Sat, Jan 3 320 Prairie View W 78-70 76%    
  Mon, Jan 5 327 Texas Southern W 76-68 78%    
  Sat, Jan 10 269 @Bethune-Cookman L 71-73 43%    
  Mon, Jan 12 341 @Florida A&M W 73-69 63%    
  Sat, Jan 17 222 Southern W 75-73 58%    
  Sat, Jan 24 365 Mississippi Valley W 80-59 98%    
  Mon, Jan 26 351 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 80-69 84%    
  Sat, Jan 31 324 @Jackson St. W 72-70 57%    
  Mon, Feb 2 337 @Alcorn St. W 74-71 61%    
  Sat, Feb 7 281 Alabama St. W 75-70 66%    
  Mon, Feb 9 293 Alabama A&M W 70-65 69%    
  Sat, Feb 14 327 @Texas Southern W 73-71 57%    
  Mon, Feb 16 320 @Prairie View W 75-73 56%    
  Sat, Feb 21 222 @Southern L 72-76 36%    
  Thu, Feb 26 269 Bethune-Cookman W 74-70 64%    
  Thu, Feb 26 341 Florida A&M W 76-66 81%    
  Tue, Mar 3 293 @Alabama A&M L 67-68 47%    
  Thu, Mar 5 281 @Alabama St. L 72-73 45%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 11 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.7 4.6 4.8 3.2 1.3 0.2 16.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 2.3 6.4 5.6 2.0 0.4 0.0 16.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.5 6.5 5.1 1.1 0.1 14.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 5.1 5.2 0.9 0.0 11.8 4th
5th 0.2 3.4 5.6 1.3 0.0 10.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 5.1 1.9 0.1 8.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.8 2.6 0.2 0.0 7.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.2 2.9 0.4 0.0 5.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.9 0.7 0.0 4.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 0.6 0.0 2.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.3 5.5 9.4 12.1 14.5 15.6 14.0 11.4 6.9 3.6 1.3 0.2 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
16-2 98.2% 1.3    1.2 0.1
15-3 90.0% 3.2    2.7 0.5 0.0
14-4 70.3% 4.8    3.0 1.7 0.2
13-5 40.3% 4.6    1.5 2.2 0.8 0.1
12-6 12.0% 1.7    0.2 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.0
11-7 1.1% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.0% 16.0 8.8 5.0 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.2% 40.4% 40.4% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 1.3% 43.8% 43.8% 14.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7
15-3 3.6% 38.3% 38.3% 14.9 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.2 2.2
14-4 6.9% 34.2% 34.2% 15.4 0.2 1.2 1.0 4.5
13-5 11.4% 27.0% 27.0% 15.6 0.1 1.0 2.0 8.3
12-6 14.0% 23.6% 23.6% 15.8 0.0 0.6 2.7 10.7
11-7 15.6% 18.4% 18.4% 15.9 0.0 0.2 2.7 12.7
10-8 14.5% 14.3% 14.3% 16.0 0.0 2.0 12.4
9-9 12.1% 11.9% 11.9% 16.0 0.0 1.4 10.7
8-10 9.4% 6.7% 6.7% 16.0 0.6 8.7
7-11 5.5% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.1 5.4
6-12 3.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 3.3
5-13 1.5% 1.5
4-14 0.6% 0.6
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 17.9% 17.9% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.9 4.0 12.9 82.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.9 34.8 43.5 21.7