Alabama St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.3#288
Expected Predictive Rating-6.5#278
Pace68.8#155
Improvement+0.0#195

Offense
Total Offense-4.8#300
First Shot-1.4#219
After Offensive Rebound-3.3#338
Layup/Dunks-4.7#333
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#131
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#79
Freethrows-0.7#226
Improvement-5.3#353

Defense
Total Defense-2.6#252
First Shot-1.0#211
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#305
Layups/Dunks+1.7#106
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#87
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#258
Freethrows-2.4#327
Improvement+5.2#11
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.7% 20.7% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 46.7% 100.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four9.3% 20.0% 0.0%
First Round4.2% 8.9% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 33 - 13 - 7
Quad 413 - 916 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 92   @ UNLV L 79-93 8%     0 - 1 -5.7 +12.6 -18.3
  Nov 10, 2024 80   @ LSU L 61-74 6%     0 - 2 -3.2 -7.4 +4.6
  Nov 22, 2024 149   Nebraska Omaha W 85-67 22%     1 - 2 +18.7 +7.2 +11.0
  Nov 23, 2024 181   Lamar W 77-75 28%     2 - 2 +0.8 +8.5 -7.7
  Nov 24, 2024 112   @ Akron L 78-97 11%     2 - 3 -12.7 +3.2 -14.9
  Nov 27, 2024 45   @ Cincinnati L 59-77 3%     2 - 4 -3.7 -4.6 +0.9
  Dec 03, 2024 49   @ SMU L 72-101 4%     2 - 5 -15.2 +1.0 -15.0
  Dec 05, 2024 293   @ Southern Miss L 64-81 41%     2 - 6 -21.9 -12.0 -9.0
  Dec 11, 2024 306   Tennessee Martin W 103-93 OT 65%     3 - 6 -1.2 +11.9 -14.3
  Dec 19, 2024 182   Norfolk St. L 54-71 28%     3 - 7 -18.2 -17.8 -1.5
  Dec 20, 2024 310   Delaware St. L 80-83 57%     3 - 8 -12.0 +3.6 -15.7
  Dec 30, 2024 19   @ Missouri L 65-82 2%     3 - 9 +2.5 -3.9 +6.6
  Jan 04, 2025 364   Mississippi Valley W 84-55 98%     4 - 9 1 - 0 -2.0 +4.8 -4.4
  Jan 06, 2025 363   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 93-91 90%     5 - 9 2 - 0 -19.2 +6.6 -25.9
  Jan 11, 2025 269   @ Jackson St. L 70-77 34%     5 - 10 2 - 1 -10.2 -2.7 -7.5
  Jan 13, 2025 327   @ Alcorn St. L 65-67 49%     5 - 11 2 - 2 -9.1 -4.2 -5.1
  Jan 18, 2025 359   @ Alabama A&M W 69-65 72%     6 - 11 3 - 2 -9.2 -7.1 -2.1
  Jan 25, 2025 358   Prairie View W 66-63 85%     7 - 11 4 - 2 -15.7 -16.4 +0.7
  Jan 27, 2025 279   Texas Southern L 69-80 58%     7 - 12 4 - 3 -20.4 -4.9 -15.4
  Feb 01, 2025 289   @ Bethune-Cookman L 64-67 40%     7 - 13 4 - 4 -7.7 -10.7 +3.0
  Feb 03, 2025 322   @ Florida A&M W 67-66 48%     8 - 13 5 - 4 -5.8 -1.2 -4.5
  Feb 08, 2025 330   Grambling St. L 67-77 72%     8 - 14 5 - 5 -23.4 -6.6 -17.3
  Feb 10, 2025 231   Southern W 82-81 47%     9 - 14 6 - 5 -5.6 +6.6 -12.2
  Feb 15, 2025 363   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 75-63 79%     10 - 14 7 - 5 -3.7 -10.3 +5.9
  Feb 17, 2025 364   @ Mississippi Valley W 79-56 94%     11 - 14 8 - 5 -2.5 -1.8 +0.0
  Feb 22, 2025 322   Florida A&M W 60-59 69%     12 - 14 9 - 5 -11.4 -14.4 +3.1
  Feb 24, 2025 289   Bethune-Cookman L 68-70 61%     12 - 15 9 - 6 -12.2 -6.8 -5.4
  Mar 01, 2025 359   Alabama A&M W 94-52 86%     13 - 15 10 - 6 +23.2 +15.7 +8.1
  Mar 06, 2025 231   @ Southern W 66-65 27%     14 - 15 11 - 6 -0.1 -1.1 +1.0
  Mar 08, 2025 330   @ Grambling St. W 59-47 52%     15 - 15 12 - 6 +4.1 -8.2 +13.8
  Mar 13, 2025 279   Texas Southern L 69-70 47%    
Projected Record 15 - 16 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 100.0 100.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 100.0 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 100.0% 9.7% 9.7% 16.0 0.0 9.7 90.3
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 9.7% 9.7% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 9.7 90.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 9.7% 100.0% 16.0 0.1 99.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 10.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 27.0%
Lose Out 53.3%