Alabama St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -9.4 313
Results Rating -11.2 334
Consistency 0.18 315
Pace 72.1 88
Improvement -3.1 293

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 328 D- D+ C- D+ C-
Defense D+ 266 D D C+ D- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 205 D- 51% 330 -3.0 291
2 Pt. Jumpers 48% 65 D 34% 316 +0.3 159
Three Pointers 38% 239 D+ 32% 279 -2.6 267
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.5 252 D- -4.8 332
1st FG Attempt D- 0.91 335
Second Chance C 29.7% 194 D- 0.90 338 D+ 0.27 276
Opponents' Steals C 9.7% 205
Other Turnovers D+ 8.1% 295
Turnovers C- 17.8% 258
Freethrows D+ 0.28 254 D+ 69% 282 D+ 0.19 282
Total Offense D -6.3 328

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots D 40% 309 C- 12.1% 248
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 23% 208 F+ 8.7% 341
Three Pointers D- 76% 336 B+ 0.1% 13
Total D- 47% 325 D 6.7% 302


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 168 D 62% 298 +1.9 246
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 334 B- 35% 81 -2.4 18
Three Pointers 45% 54 D 37% 303 +4.2 338
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.7 292 D +3.0 297
1st FG Attempt D 1.10 307
Second Chance D 33.5% 305 D 1.11 294 D 0.37 317
Turnovers from Steals B- 10.6% 96
Other Turnovers C 7.1% 200
Turnovers C+ 17.8% 117
Freethrows D- 0.36 330 D+ 74% 280 D- 0.27 340
Total Defense D+ -3.1 266

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 51% 243 C+ 12.3% 116
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 29% 255 C 4.9% 178
Three Pointers D+ 87% 291 C+ 1.2% 103
Total D 62% 312 C+ 6.1% 140

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.9 127 16.8 84
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 101 0.23 339
Consistency 0.15 345 0.11 101
Improvement -5.5 354 +2.4 69

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 320 314 307
Results Rating Rank 337 326 322
Conference Record 7 - 11 8 - 10 8 - 10
Conference Finish 10 9 8
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Grambling St. (Home) - 59.6% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 40 - 4
Quad 21 - 21 - 7
Quad 30 - 21 - 8
Quad 49 - 1210 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 77 @Florida St. L 64 - 101 4% -20  0% 0 - 1 F -26 F -14 F B- D F+ -9 C+ F A
 Tue, Nov 11 123 @UAB W 77 - 74 8% +4  75% 1 - 1 B +9 C +1 C D B A- +7 B+ C- A-
 Mon, Nov 17 67 @Colorado L 66 - 94 3% -19  0% 1 - 2 F+ -16 D- -6 F+ C- B- F+ -10 D- F+ B-
 Wed, Nov 19 344 @Air Force L 64 - 66 52% +2  71% 1 - 3 D- -12 F -11 F F D+ C -1 D- F A
 Fri, Nov 21 327 IU Indianapolis W 101 - 80 55% +9  86% 2 - 3 B +10 B +6 A- D- C C+ +2 F A- A+
 Sun, Nov 23 250 SIU Edwardsville L 68 - 83 33% -2  48% 2 - 4 F -20 C- -2 F C- B F -19 F+ F F
 Wed, Nov 26 50 @New Mexico L 87 - 93 2% +6  82% 2 - 5 B- +8 A+ +16 A+ A+ F D- -7 F C C+
 Sun, Dec 7 230 @Tennessee Martin L 64 - 74 21% +0  60% 2 - 6 D -11 D+ -3 A- F C- F+ -8 C+ F D+
 Thu, Dec 11 46 @Missouri L 77 - 85 2% -11  0% 2 - 7 B- +7 A+ +17 A- A+ A+ F -11 F F C
 Wed, Dec 17 36 @Cincinnati L 51 - 88 2% -21  0% 2 - 8 F -20 F -12 F+ F A F+ -9 D- B- F
 Mon, Dec 22 119 @Memphis L 67 - 88 8% -13  0% 2 - 9 F+ -15 D -5 F+ B D+ F+ -9 F C A+
 Mon, Dec 29 93 @Mississippi St. L 56 - 94 5% -18  0% 2 - 10 F -29 F -14 F F F+ F -15 D- F C+
 Sat, Jan 3 365 @Mississippi Valley W 89 - 69 82% +9  98% 3 - 10 1 - 0 C +1 C+ +4 B- F F D+ -4 F+ C- A-
 Mon, Jan 5 332 @Arkansas Pine Bluff L 79 - 90 47% -6  10% 3 - 11 1 - 1 F -20 D- -7 D- F C+ F -12 F F+ B+
 Sat, Jan 10 345 Jackson St. L 64 - 75 73% -7  8% 3 - 12 1 - 2 F -27 F -25 F C- F C -1 B- C- C+
 Mon, Jan 12 350 Alcorn St. W 81 - 66 75% +6  92% 4 - 12 2 - 2 C -2 D+ -4 C D F B- +2 A F C+
 Mon, Jan 19 304 Alabama A&M L 69 - 73 46% -0  39% 4 - 13 2 - 3 D- -13 F -13 D A F C+ +0 B- D C
 Sat, Jan 24 322 @Prairie View W 95 - 80 42% +12  98% 5 - 13 3 - 3 B- +8 C +1 A F+ B- B +4 C+ F A+
 Tue, Jan 27 301 @Texas Southern L 64 - 96 34% -16  0% 5 - 14 3 - 4 F -37 F -16 F D+ B F -19 F F D
 Sat, Jan 31 236 Bethune-Cookman L 54 - 69 42% -1  50% 5 - 15 3 - 5 F -22 F -22 F F F C -0 D F A+
 Mon, Feb 2 315 Florida A&M W 79 - 66 62% +3  59% 6 - 15 4 - 5 C +0 D+ -3 B+ F F B- +3 C C+ B
 Sat, Feb 7 309 @Grambling St. L 47 - 57 37% -3  35% 6 - 16 4 - 6 F+ -16 F -22 F F B B +5 C A- D
 Mon, Feb 9 277 @Southern L 68 - 69 28% -0  42% 6 - 17 4 - 7 C- -4 D -4 F+ A- F C -0 B C D
 Sat, Feb 14 332 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 79 - 61 69% +7  84% 7 - 17 5 - 7 C+ +3 D- -7 C- F C A +10 C- A+ A+
 Mon, Feb 16 365 Mississippi Valley W 92 - 55 92% +15  76% 8 - 17 6 - 7 B+ +12 B- +4 F A+ F B+ +6 B+ A F
 Thu, Feb 19 236 @Bethune-Cookman L 71 - 82 22% -11  0% 8 - 18 6 - 8 D- -12 D -5 F F A+ D- -8 D- B- F
 Sat, Feb 21 315 @Florida A&M L 63 - 76 39% -5  15% 8 - 19 6 - 9 F -20 F -13 F F A- D- -7 F C- C-
 Sat, Feb 28 304 @Alabama A&M W 89 - 88 35% +2  57% 9 - 19 7 - 9 C- -5 A +14 B A- A- F -18 F F D-
 Tue, Mar 3 277 Southern L 64 - 71 50% +4  88% 9 - 20 7 - 10 F+ -16 F -16 F B C C +0 A- D- F+
 Thu, Mar 5 309 Grambling St. W 72 - 69 60%
Totals 10 - 20 8 - 10 -9 D -6 F D- C- D+ -3 D+ D+ D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D- D D+ D- 38% 48% 38% C- D- C D- D+ C- D+ D+ D+ D+ D B- D D 39% 16% 45% D D D D D C+ D- D+ D-
1.00 51% 34% 32% -5 0 0.91 30% 0.9 .27 18% .28 69% .19 1.13 62% 35% 37% +3 +1 1.10 33% 1.1 .37 18% .36 74% .21
Nov
7		 Florida St. F F F D+ F 33% 27% 40% D+ F C- A- B- D B F C- F+ F C- B C+ 27% 8% 65% C+ C+ F F F A A F B-
0.82 44% 13% 32% -13 -1 0.75 29% 1.1 .31 22% .31 58% .18 1.29 71% 40% 30% 0 +1 1.03 44% 1.9 .82 19% .22 93% .21
Nov
11		 UAB C B F C C 45% 18% 38% B C B- F D B A F B A- C+ D A+ A 51% 20% 29% D- B+ D B- C- A- B- F C-
1.03 64% 20% 33% -1 +1 1.02 30% 0.6 .18 15% .31 65% .20 0.99 57% 42% 12% -10 +1 0.85 36% 0.9 .33 16% .29 78% .22
Nov
17		 Colorado D- F F+ A+ F+ 32% 28% 40% D+ F+ C+ F+ C- B- F F F F+ F D D+ F+ 44% 20% 36% C- D- F C- F+ B- F C- F
0.93 22% 31% 43% -8 -1 0.84 28% 0.8 .24 16% .20 58% .12 1.33 75% 44% 38% +11 +1 1.24 39% 1.0 .39 16% .60 78% .47
Nov
19		 Air Force F D D+ F F 40% 22% 38% C+ F F F F D+ B A A- C C A+ F D 38% 8% 54% D D- D+ F F A F C- F
0.96 55% 36% 26% -6 0 0.90 18% 0.8 .15 17% .34 79% .27 0.99 57% 0% 40% +1 +2 1.08 25% 2.2 .54 26% .46 65% .30
Nov
21		 IU Indianapolis B B- A+ A+ A- 50% 13% 38% C+ A- F+ B- D- C D+ A+ C+ C+ B- A F F 19% 12% 69% C- F B+ A- A- A+ B+ A+ A
1.26 64% 71% 43% +12 +2 1.30 28% 1.3 .34 19% .37 83% .31 1.00 55% 29% 44% +9 0 1.19 23% 0.9 .20 22% .13 50% .06
Nov
23		 SIU Edwardsville C- F A F F 35% 22% 43% C F B+ F C- B A+ A A+ F F A F+ F 33% 31% 37% C+ F+ F B- F F F C F
1.02 44% 50% 20% -12 0 0.78 39% 0.8 .29 14% .54 81% .43 1.25 75% 27% 39% +5 -2 1.08 41% 0.9 .38 12% .51 67% .34
Nov
26		 New Mexico A+ C+ D A+ A+ 24% 27% 49% D A+ A A+ A+ F A A A+ D- D F F F 41% 7% 52% D+ F D+ B C C+ F B- F
1.20 58% 36% 48% +10 -2 1.18 37% 1.6 .59 23% .36 80% .29 1.28 63% 67% 46% +13 +2 1.33 33% 0.9 .30 15% .62 71% .44
Dec
7		 Tennessee Martin D+ A- D A+ A 36% 28% 36% C- A- F+ F F C- B- F D+ F+ B- F A- C+ 28% 17% 54% C C+ F D- F D+ F A+ C-
0.97 71% 31% 41% +6 -1 1.13 25% 0.4 .09 20% .36 58% .21 1.12 54% 50% 28% -4 0 0.93 45% 1.0 .45 20% .43 48% .21
Dec
11		 Missouri A+ C- C- A+ A 25% 27% 47% D+ A- B- A+ A+ A+ F+ F+ F+ F F F F F 44% 23% 33% B F B F F C A- C B+
1.24 54% 36% 46% +7 -2 1.12 32% 1.3 .42 11% .22 67% .15 1.37 79% 50% 50% +20 0 1.42 33% 1.9 .62 18% .31 69% .22
Dec
17		 Cincinnati F F C F F+ 33% 33% 33% D- F+ A F F A D- F F+ F+ F C- A+ D 39% 9% 52% F D- D A B- F D C D
0.73 39% 39% 22% -12 -2 0.74 35% 0.3 .10 16% .20 58% .12 1.26 90% 40% 25% +6 +2 1.17 36% 0.8 .31 10% .32 70% .22
Dec
22		 Memphis D C+ C+ F D- 20% 35% 45% F F+ A D+ B D+ B F D+ F+ F C- F F 30% 15% 56% D F F A C A+ D+ A+ C+
0.92 60% 39% 22% -8 -3 0.80 43% 0.8 .36 22% .39 59% .23 1.21 75% 38% 43% +13 0 1.28 45% 0.9 .42 25% .33 61% .20
Dec
29		 Mississippi St. F F F F F 27% 36% 36% D- F D F F F+ A+ F+ A+ F C- F D- D- 41% 20% 39% D+ D- F D- F C+ B D B-
0.81 42% 25% 25% -14 -3 0.68 22% 0.3 .07 17% .59 68% .40 1.35 64% 55% 38% +8 0 1.19 49% 1.2 .57 16% .24 71% .17
Jan
3		 Mississippi Valley C+ B A B+ B 39% 22% 39% D+ B- C+ F F F A+ A+ A+ D+ F A+ F F+ 37% 33% 30% F F+ C+ D- C- A- F F F
1.22 67% 50% 39% +9 0 1.20 39% 0.8 .30 22% .53 93% .49 0.94 69% 21% 38% +1 -2 1.00 22% 1.0 .22 25% .45 80% .36
Jan
5		 Arkansas Pine Bluff D- D+ D- C- D 41% 27% 32% D- D- F C- F C+ B D+ C+ F A+ F F F 48% 16% 36% F F F B- F+ B+ F F F
1.05 57% 33% 33% -2 -1 0.96 24% 1.1 .26 15% .41 73% .30 1.20 33% 71% 56% +6 +1 1.16 38% 0.8 .31 21% .70 83% .58
Jan
10		 Jackson St. F F F F F 60% 11% 29% A F A F C- F B- F C- C C- A+ A+ A- 53% 16% 31% F B- F+ B+ C- C+ F F F
0.85 39% 17% 13% -23 +3 0.62 48% 0.8 .37 25% .37 67% .25 0.99 56% 0% 25% -12 +2 0.82 33% 0.8 .28 20% .53 88% .46
Jan
12		 Alcorn St. D+ B+ F B+ C- 43% 11% 46% C+ C D- B- D F A+ A A+ B- A A+ A- A+ 35% 19% 46% D+ A C- F F C+ D+ D- D
1.13 70% 0% 38% +4 +2 1.13 31% 1.3 .38 22% .47 81% .38 0.92 44% 10% 29% -13 0 0.75 26% 1.6 .42 20% .28 75% .21
Jan
19		 Alabama A&M F A+ C+ F C- 26% 28% 47% F D B A+ A F C F D+ C+ F A+ A+ B- 33% 27% 40% C+ B- B+ F D C F F F
0.97 83% 38% 27% +2 -2 1.02 37% 1.3 .47 28% .33 65% .21 1.02 80% 17% 22% -5 -1 0.89 20% 1.5 .30 17% .49 83% .40
Jan
24		 Prairie View C C C A+ A 44% 17% 39% C+ A F C+ F+ B- D F F+ B D- A+ A+ B- 40% 33% 27% C- C+ D- F F A+ F F F
1.13 58% 40% 52% +11 +1 1.25 25% 1.1 .28 17% .33 65% .21 0.95 63% 25% 23% -7 -2 0.85 29% 1.6 .46 27% .56 88% .49
Jan
27		 Texas Southern F F A F F 43% 4% 53% A- F C D D+ B A F C+ F C F F F 37% 16% 47% F+ F F B+ F D F F F
0.88 45% 50% 19% -17 +2 0.73 33% 1.0 .33 14% .46 59% .27 1.31 58% 75% 46% +14 +1 1.31 41% 0.9 .37 15% .42 85% .35
Jan
31		 Bethune-Cookman F B F F D- 33% 35% 31% F F F+ F F F F C+ F C C C+ D D+ 60% 14% 26% F D F C+ F A+ F B+ F
0.78 63% 24% 27% -7 -2 0.83 24% 0.7 .16 23% .21 73% .15 1.00 58% 33% 36% 0 +2 1.07 40% 1.0 .40 29% .49 63% .31
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
2		 Florida A&M D+ F+ A+ A+ A 35% 25% 39% D- B+ C F F F D C- D B- A+ F C+ B- 47% 14% 39% F C B C- C+ B D F F+
1.09 50% 54% 50% +11 -1 1.22 31% 0.5 .14 23% .29 75% .22 0.91 43% 57% 32% -6 +1 0.94 24% 0.9 .21 23% .32 78% .25
Feb
7		 Grambling St. F F F F F 44% 15% 41% C+ F C+ F F B F F F B A C+ C C+ 32% 7% 61% F C A+ C A- D D C D+
0.74 29% 13% 27% -21 +1 0.63 35% 0.6 .19 17% .19 50% .10 0.90 43% 33% 33% -6 +1 0.93 18% 1.0 .18 19% .35 72% .25
Feb
9		 Southern D C F A+ D+ 24% 43% 33% F F+ A- C+ A- F A+ F B C F A+ B- B- 27% 35% 39% A B C- C+ C D F F F
1.03 60% 28% 43% 0 -4 0.95 41% 1.2 .49 26% .47 65% .31 1.05 69% 18% 32% -6 -3 0.86 30% 1.0 .30 14% .44 76% .33
Feb
14		 Arkansas Pine Bluff D- C+ C+ D- C- 49% 19% 32% C+ C- B F F C D+ A+ C+ A F+ A+ C C- 29% 20% 51% C- C- B- A+ A+ A+ F B- F
1.09 62% 40% 29% 0 +1 1.04 41% 0.6 .23 15% .34 86% .29 0.84 67% 25% 33% -1 -1 1.00 23% 0.3 .07 30% .50 72% .36
Feb
16		 Mississippi Valley B- F D- D F 51% 7% 42% A F A+ A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ B+ B- A+ D+ A- 31% 40% 29% C- B+ A+ A A F F A- D
1.27 39% 33% 32% -12 +3 0.84 50% 1.7 .86 22% .64 86% .55 0.76 50% 19% 33% -10 -3 0.75 14% 0.7 .10 15% .36 64% .23
Feb
19		 Bethune-Cookman D F+ A+ F F 47% 14% 39% B- F F C- F A+ D+ F D- D- D- A+ F F+ 41% 24% 35% C+ D- A+ F B- F F C- F
0.99 46% 50% 22% -11 +2 0.83 22% 1.1 .24 8% .29 63% .18 1.15 67% 17% 44% +4 0 1.10 16% 1.6 .26 11% .46 69% .32
Feb
21		 Florida A&M F F D- B+ F 34% 30% 36% F F F C+ F A- A- F F+ D- F D+ A- F 40% 21% 38% D F F B C- C- F A- F
0.90 41% 33% 39% -5 -2 0.90 17% 1.0 .17 14% .40 50% .20 1.09 79% 40% 28% +5 0 1.13 34% 0.8 .26 20% .50 61% .30
Feb
28		 Alabama A&M A C+ A- A+ B+ 41% 18% 41% C B D+ A+ A- A- C+ A B F D F F F 36% 22% 42% D+ F D- F F D- F A+ D+
1.32 62% 44% 43% +8 +1 1.20 29% 1.5 .43 12% .34 80% .27 1.31 61% 64% 48% +15 0 1.32 30% 1.4 .41 13% .43 64% .27
Mar
3		 Southern F F F F F 32% 23% 45% D+ F D A+ B C F F F C A+ A C A 45% 22% 33% F+ A- D+ D- D- F+ F D+ F
0.90 47% 25% 21% -15 -1 0.70 27% 1.6 .44 18% .26 67% .17 1.00 40% 25% 33% -11 0 0.80 32% 1.2 .37 13% .44 70% .31



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 41.1 41.1 8th
9th 18.7 18.5 37.2 9th
10th 21.7 21.7 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 40.4 59.6 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10 59.6% 59.6
7-11 40.4% 40.4
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 59.6%
Lose Out 40.4%