Cincinnati
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.7#59
Expected Predictive Rating+8.7#62
Pace64.4#289
Improvement-6.7#358

Offense
Total Offense+1.3#139
First Shot-0.9#207
After Offensive Rebound+2.3#48
Layup/Dunks+6.7#13
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#326
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#192
Freethrows-4.6#362
Improvement-5.4#360

Defense
Total Defense+8.4#12
First Shot+8.0#12
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#144
Layups/Dunks+1.7#106
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#200
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.4#12
Freethrows+0.8#123
Improvement-1.3#258
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.6% 14.1% 4.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 8.4% 13.9% 4.5%
Average Seed 10.4 10.4 10.6
.500 or above 70.6% 85.5% 60.0%
.500 or above in Conference 2.3% 4.9% 0.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.7% 0.7% 4.1%
First Four5.5% 8.4% 3.4%
First Round5.9% 10.0% 2.9%
Second Round2.1% 3.7% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 1.0% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Florida (Away) - 41.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 70 - 7
Quad 1b1 - 41 - 11
Quad 26 - 48 - 15
Quad 32 - 010 - 15
Quad 47 - 017 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 363   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 109-54 99%     1 - 0 +33.7 +16.1 +14.1
  Nov 08, 2024 282   Morehead St. W 83-56 95%     2 - 0 +17.8 +17.1 +4.0
  Nov 15, 2024 197   Nicholls St. W 86-49 90%     3 - 0 +32.8 +16.9 +18.5
  Nov 19, 2024 244   @ Northern Kentucky W 76-60 87%     4 - 0 +13.6 +10.8 +4.1
  Nov 23, 2024 99   @ Georgia Tech W 81-58 59%     5 - 0 +30.3 +13.6 +16.8
  Nov 27, 2024 308   Alabama St. W 77-59 96%     6 - 0 +7.0 -1.6 +8.6
  Dec 03, 2024 46   @ Villanova L 60-68 36%     6 - 1 +5.4 +3.1 +0.7
  Dec 08, 2024 310   Howard W 84-67 96%     7 - 1 +5.9 +2.3 +3.8
  Dec 14, 2024 44   Xavier W 68-65 52%     8 - 1 +12.1 +0.2 +11.9
  Dec 20, 2024 80   Dayton W 66-59 59%     9 - 1 +14.3 +1.3 +13.8
  Dec 22, 2024 339   Grambling St. W 84-49 98%     10 - 1 +20.9 +15.8 +9.0
  Dec 30, 2024 55   @ Kansas St. L 67-70 40%     10 - 2 0 - 1 +9.4 +2.2 +7.2
  Jan 04, 2025 10   Arizona L 67-72 29%     10 - 3 0 - 2 +10.3 +1.7 +8.6
  Jan 07, 2025 20   @ Baylor L 48-68 21%     10 - 4 0 - 3 -1.7 -10.4 +5.3
  Jan 11, 2025 7   Kansas L 40-54 26%     10 - 5 0 - 4 +2.5 -17.3 +17.8
  Jan 15, 2025 98   @ Colorado W 68-62 59%     11 - 5 1 - 4 +13.4 -0.6 +13.9
  Jan 18, 2025 61   Arizona St. W 67-60 62%     12 - 5 2 - 4 +13.5 +3.5 +10.4
  Jan 21, 2025 12   Texas Tech L 71-81 30%     12 - 6 2 - 5 +5.1 +8.1 -3.5
  Jan 25, 2025 33   @ BYU L 52-80 27%     12 - 7 2 - 6 -11.8 -6.3 -10.2
  Jan 28, 2025 84   @ Utah L 66-69 50%     12 - 8 2 - 7 +6.6 +0.9 +5.6
  Feb 02, 2025 39   West Virginia L 50-63 51%     12 - 9 2 - 8 -3.6 -9.0 +3.7
  Feb 05, 2025 62   @ Central Florida L 70-72 42%    
  Feb 08, 2025 33   BYU L 68-70 46%    
  Feb 11, 2025 84   Utah W 71-66 69%    
  Feb 15, 2025 8   @ Iowa St. L 61-72 15%    
  Feb 19, 2025 39   @ West Virginia L 59-64 31%    
  Feb 22, 2025 68   TCU W 65-61 68%    
  Feb 25, 2025 20   Baylor L 65-69 38%    
  Mar 01, 2025 3   @ Houston L 53-68 7%    
  Mar 05, 2025 55   Kansas St. W 68-66 60%    
  Mar 08, 2025 102   @ Oklahoma St. W 69-66 57%    
Projected Record 16 - 15 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.8 7th
8th 0.2 1.6 0.9 0.0 2.7 8th
9th 0.1 2.1 2.7 0.4 0.0 5.3 9th
10th 0.0 1.5 6.5 1.3 0.0 9.3 10th
11th 0.5 6.9 5.0 0.2 12.6 11th
12th 0.2 5.0 8.9 1.4 0.0 15.5 12th
13th 0.1 3.3 11.3 4.1 0.1 18.8 13th
14th 0.1 2.3 9.5 6.6 0.5 0.0 18.9 14th
15th 0.3 2.3 6.9 5.0 0.8 0.0 15.2 15th
16th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6 16th
Total 0.4 2.6 9.5 18.0 24.2 22.0 15.1 5.9 2.1 0.2 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.2% 90.9% 90.9% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 90.9%
10-10 2.1% 77.8% 0.5% 77.3% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.5 77.7%
9-11 5.9% 50.5% 1.2% 49.3% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.6 0.1 2.9 49.9%
8-12 15.1% 18.0% 0.2% 17.8% 10.9 0.1 0.3 2.0 0.3 12.4 17.9%
7-13 22.0% 4.3% 0.2% 4.1% 11.0 0.1 0.8 0.1 21.0 4.1%
6-14 24.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.4% 10.8 0.0 0.1 24.1 0.4%
5-15 18.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 18.0 0.1%
4-16 9.5% 9.5
3-17 2.6% 2.6
2-18 0.4% 0.4
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 8.6% 0.2% 8.4% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.9 5.0 0.4 91.4 8.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%