Cincinnati
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.5#45
Expected Predictive Rating+10.5#52
Pace64.7#277
Improvement-2.3#278

Offense
Total Offense+3.5#84
First Shot+0.8#141
After Offensive Rebound+2.8#33
Layup/Dunks+7.8#5
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#330
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#172
Freethrows-4.5#361
Improvement+0.0#189

Defense
Total Defense+8.0#19
First Shot+7.7#14
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#159
Layups/Dunks+1.6#110
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#205
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.4#13
Freethrows+0.8#120
Improvement-2.3#296
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.8% 26.0% 3.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 8.3% 24.5% 3.2%
Average Seed 11.1 11.1 11.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four7.9% 22.4% 3.2%
First Round4.9% 15.3% 1.6%
Second Round1.6% 5.0% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 1.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 70 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 42 - 11
Quad 28 - 310 - 14
Quad 32 - 113 - 15
Quad 46 - 018 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 363   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 109-54 99%     1 - 0 +33.8 +18.1 +12.2
  Nov 08, 2024 329   Morehead St. W 83-56 98%     2 - 0 +13.7 +15.1 +1.9
  Nov 15, 2024 177   Nicholls St. W 86-49 92%     3 - 0 +33.2 +17.2 +18.6
  Nov 19, 2024 222   @ Northern Kentucky W 76-60 87%     4 - 0 +15.4 +9.7 +7.0
  Nov 23, 2024 95   @ Georgia Tech W 81-58 64%     5 - 0 +30.9 +14.4 +16.7
  Nov 27, 2024 288   Alabama St. W 77-59 97%     6 - 0 +7.9 +0.1 +7.8
  Dec 03, 2024 46   @ Villanova L 60-68 40%     6 - 1 +6.2 +3.9 +0.7
  Dec 08, 2024 315   Howard W 84-67 98%     7 - 1 +5.0 +4.1 +1.1
  Dec 14, 2024 39   Xavier W 68-65 56%     8 - 1 +13.1 +1.0 +12.1
  Dec 20, 2024 74   Dayton W 66-59 65%     9 - 1 +14.5 +1.5 +13.7
  Dec 22, 2024 330   Grambling St. W 84-49 98%     10 - 1 +21.6 +16.6 +9.1
  Dec 30, 2024 59   @ Kansas St. L 67-70 46%     10 - 2 0 - 1 +9.5 +4.4 +5.1
  Jan 04, 2025 12   Arizona L 67-72 36%     10 - 3 0 - 2 +10.2 +0.9 +9.3
  Jan 07, 2025 27   @ Baylor L 48-68 28%     10 - 4 0 - 3 -2.5 -9.8 +4.0
  Jan 11, 2025 18   Kansas L 40-54 40%     10 - 5 0 - 4 +0.1 -18.2 +16.2
  Jan 15, 2025 85   @ Colorado W 68-62 58%     11 - 5 1 - 4 +15.4 +1.5 +13.9
  Jan 18, 2025 73   Arizona St. W 67-60 74%     12 - 5 2 - 4 +11.8 +0.6 +11.6
  Jan 21, 2025 7   Texas Tech L 71-81 30%     12 - 6 2 - 5 +7.0 +8.4 -2.0
  Jan 25, 2025 20   @ BYU L 52-80 23%     12 - 7 2 - 6 -8.8 -5.8 -7.6
  Jan 28, 2025 64   @ Utah L 66-69 50%     12 - 8 2 - 7 +8.5 +1.4 +7.0
  Feb 02, 2025 43   West Virginia L 50-63 60%     12 - 9 2 - 8 -4.0 -8.1 +2.3
  Feb 05, 2025 78   @ Central Florida W 93-83 56%     13 - 9 3 - 8 +20.1 +16.4 +2.9
  Feb 08, 2025 20   BYU W 84-66 41%     14 - 9 4 - 8 +31.7 +23.0 +10.5
  Feb 11, 2025 64   Utah W 85-75 70%     15 - 9 5 - 8 +16.0 +18.5 -2.1
  Feb 15, 2025 10   @ Iowa St. L 70-81 18%     15 - 10 5 - 9 +10.4 +10.9 -0.7
  Feb 19, 2025 43   @ West Virginia L 59-62 39%     15 - 11 5 - 10 +11.5 +6.9 +4.1
  Feb 22, 2025 77   TCU W 75-63 75%     16 - 11 6 - 10 +16.6 +13.5 +4.0
  Feb 25, 2025 27   Baylor W 69-67 48%     17 - 11 7 - 10 +14.0 +11.9 +2.5
  Mar 01, 2025 4   @ Houston L 64-73 10%     17 - 12 7 - 11 +16.6 +10.4 +5.2
  Mar 05, 2025 59   Kansas St. L 49-54 67%     17 - 13 7 - 12 +2.0 -12.0 +13.5
  Mar 08, 2025 91   @ Oklahoma St. L 67-78 62%     17 - 14 7 - 13 -2.6 -1.9 -0.4
  Mar 11, 2025 91   Oklahoma St. W 87-68 72%     18 - 14 +24.6 +10.6 +12.3
  Mar 12, 2025 10   Iowa St. L 65-72 25%    
Projected Record 18 - 15 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 100.0 100.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 100.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13 100.0% 8.8% 0.5% 8.3% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 6.0 2.2 91.2 8.3%
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 8.8% 0.5% 8.3% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 6.0 2.2 91.2 8.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 10.0 4.1 22.4 46.9 26.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.0% 66.7% 10.7 2.0 16.2 45.5 3.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 6.1% 42.5% 11.1 0.2 1.8 34.4 6.2
Lose Out 75.6% 3.2% 11.4 2.1 1.2