Cincinnati
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +10.9 #49
Expected Predictive Rating +6.3 #85
Pace 71.2 #112
Improvement +4.9 #14

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #146 C C B- D+ C
Defense #8 A- B+ A B B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #231 1.26 #81 +0.8 #148
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #224 0.77 #160 -0.9 #224
Three Pointers 45% #94 0.97 #250 +1.1 #144
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #151 +1.0 #150
Freethrows 17.1 #199 67% #329 11.6 #247
Second Chance 31.1% #169 1.01 #238 0.31 #186
Turnovers 15.2% #102
Total Offense +0.6 #146

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #291 0.94 #9 +6.1 #24
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #89 0.78 #223 -1.4 #293
Three Pointers 42% #148 0.94 #83 +1.1 #137
1st FG Attempt 0.90 #33 +5.7 #33
Freethrows 16.0 #114 67% #18 10.7 #66
Second Chance 23.6% #12 1.11 #272 0.26 #49
Turnovers 20.4% #20
Total Defense +10.3 #8

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.4% #162 -1.3% #74
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 1.5% #155 -10.0% #35
Possession Length 16.1 #61 18.3 #315
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.24 #33 0.08 #5
Improvement +4.6 #9 +0.3 #165

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.2% 18.0% 7.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 12.9% 17.7% 6.9%
Average Seed 9.9 9.9 10.1
.500 or above 54.6% 67.4% 38.6%
.500 or above in Conference 29.9% 41.0% 16.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.3% 0.6% 4.4%
First Four5.8% 7.6% 3.6%
First Round10.5% 14.5% 5.5%
Second Round4.2% 5.9% 2.0%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 1.4% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arizona St. (Away) - 55.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 82 - 8
Quad 1b1 - 53 - 12
Quad 25 - 37 - 15
Quad 32 - 010 - 15
Quad 46 - 116 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 289 Western Carolina W 94 - 63 96% +20  1 - 0 +21 +3 A+ C F +14 A- A- A+
 Fri, Nov 7 273 Georgia St. W 74 - 64 96% +6  2 - 0 +1 -5 D- C- F +5 C C- A+
 Tue, Nov 11 73 Dayton W 74 - 62 72% +9  3 - 0 +17 -4 A+ F F +19 A+ A+ C+
 Sun, Nov 16 288 Mount St. Mary's W 72 - 55 96% +0  4 - 0 +7 -6 D- F C +12 A- B+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 13 Louisville L 64 - 74 24% -1  4 - 1 +8 -3 B+ F C- +12 A+ A+ A-
 Mon, Nov 24 336 NJIT W 104 - 80 98% +16  5 - 1 +10 +8 A- C C+ -3 C+ F A+
 Wed, Nov 26 198 Eastern Michigan L 56 - 64 93% -9  5 - 2 -14 -14 F F D +0 A- F A+
 Mon, Dec 1 189 Tarleton St. W 76 - 58 92% +8  6 - 2 +13 -0 B+ A- F +13 B B A+
 Fri, Dec 5 81 @Xavier L 74 - 79 52% -4  6 - 3 +5 +3 F A+ A+ +3 C+ A+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 24 Georgia L 65 - 84 31% -1  6 - 4 -3 -6 F C- C +5 A D A+
 Wed, Dec 17 311 Alabama St. W 88 - 51 97% +21  7 - 4 +25 +10 B- F A+ +16 A+ A+ C-
 Sun, Dec 21 32 Clemson L 65 - 68 38% -13  7 - 5 +11 +4 C A C +7 C A+ A
 Mon, Dec 29 174 Lipscomb W 89 - 62 91% +16  8 - 5 +23 +13 B- A+ A+ +9 A C- A
 Sat, Jan 3 4 Houston L 60 - 67 23% +1  8 - 6 0 - 1 +12 +3 A D C +8 A+ B- C
 Tue, Jan 6 52 @West Virginia L 60 - 62 40% -3  8 - 7 0 - 2 +12 +1 C C- A+ +11 D- A+ A+
 Sun, Jan 11 53 @Central Florida L 72 - 73 40% -1  8 - 8 0 - 3 +13 +8 D+ A+ A+ +5 F A- A+
 Wed, Jan 14 78 Colorado W 77 - 68 73% +13  9 - 8 1 - 3 +14 +2 B+ F B +11 A- C+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 8 Iowa St. W 79 - 70 26% +7  10 - 8 2 - 3 +26 +20 A+ A- A+ +7 A+ C+ A+
 Wed, Jan 21 2 @Arizona L 51 - 77 8% -7  10 - 9 2 - 4 +0 -5 F C+ F +3 A+ D+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 88 @Arizona St. W 75 - 74 56%
 Wed, Jan 28 41 Baylor W 75 - 73 57%
 Sat, Jan 31 4 @Houston L 58 - 72 9%
 Thu, Feb 5 52 West Virginia W 67 - 64 63%
 Sun, Feb 8 53 Central Florida W 75 - 72 62%
 Wed, Feb 11 85 @Kansas St. W 76 - 75 53%
 Sun, Feb 15 104 Utah W 79 - 70 81%
 Sat, Feb 21 19 @Kansas L 65 - 74 19%
 Tue, Feb 24 15 @Texas Tech L 67 - 77 17%
 Sat, Feb 28 61 Oklahoma St. W 80 - 75 68%
 Tue, Mar 3 12 BYU L 71 - 76 33%
 Sat, Mar 7 45 @TCU L 67 - 70 38%
Totals 16 - 15 8 - 10 +11 +1 C C B- +10 A- B+ A




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 1.5 0.4 0.0 2.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 3.2 1.5 0.0 6.0 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 5.3 3.7 0.3 10.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 6.5 7.0 1.2 0.0 15.4 8th
9th 0.1 5.0 9.3 2.2 0.1 16.7 9th
10th 0.0 2.0 9.1 3.9 0.3 15.2 10th
11th 0.4 5.6 5.5 0.5 12.0 11th
12th 0.1 2.2 5.4 1.1 0.0 8.7 12th
13th 0.6 3.6 1.7 0.0 5.9 13th
14th 0.1 1.4 1.9 0.2 3.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.3 0.0 1.7 15th
16th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 16th
Total 0.1 0.7 3.2 8.4 14.8 21.4 21.4 16.1 9.0 3.7 1.0 0.1 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0%
13-5 5.3% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.0% 95.3% 0.5% 94.8% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 95.3%
11-7 3.7% 80.1% 1.7% 78.4% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.7 79.8%
10-8 9.0% 50.4% 0.7% 49.6% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.7 1.9 0.0 4.5 50.0%
9-9 16.1% 24.1% 0.7% 23.4% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 2.7 0.1 12.2 23.6%
8-10 21.4% 3.1% 0.3% 2.8% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.0 20.7 2.8%
7-11 21.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 10.9 0.0 0.1 21.3 0.3%
6-12 14.8% 0.1% 0.1% 11.3 0.0 0.0 14.8
5-13 8.4% 0.1% 0.1% 12.5 0.0 0.0 8.4
4-14 3.2% 3.2
3-15 0.7% 0.7
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 13.2% 0.4% 12.8% 9.9 86.8 12.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%