Kansas
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.2#10
Expected Predictive Rating+17.6#15
Pace71.5#106
Improvement-2.5#319

Offense
Total Offense+8.2#17
First Shot+9.0#9
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#233
Layup/Dunks+11.2#1
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#155
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#161
Freethrows-3.1#341
Improvement-1.9#315

Defense
Total Defense+9.0#5
First Shot+5.1#43
After Offensive Rebounds+3.9#4
Layups/Dunks+8.5#9
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#284
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#249
Freethrows-0.5#224
Improvement-0.6#231
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 2.5% 2.5% 0.9%
#1 Seed 14.7% 14.9% 6.4%
Top 2 Seed 33.4% 33.9% 16.2%
Top 4 Seed 67.2% 67.9% 46.2%
Top 6 Seed 85.8% 86.3% 71.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 97.9% 98.0% 93.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 97.5% 97.7% 92.2%
Average Seed 3.8 3.7 4.9
.500 or above 99.3% 99.4% 97.2%
.500 or above in Conference 92.6% 92.8% 85.0%
Conference Champion 18.7% 19.0% 10.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.4%
First Four1.4% 1.4% 3.8%
First Round97.2% 97.4% 91.1%
Second Round84.4% 84.8% 73.6%
Sweet Sixteen53.5% 53.9% 39.6%
Elite Eight28.5% 28.8% 18.7%
Final Four14.1% 14.3% 8.4%
Championship Game6.8% 6.9% 3.7%
National Champion3.1% 3.2% 1.6%

Next Game: Brown (Home) - 97.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 55 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 39 - 8
Quad 27 - 116 - 9
Quad 35 - 021 - 9
Quad 43 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 255   Howard W 87-57 98%     1 - 0 +21.9 +6.7 +14.6
  Nov 08, 2024 22   North Carolina W 92-89 72%     2 - 0 +14.1 +14.8 -0.9
  Nov 12, 2024 15   Michigan St. W 77-69 57%     3 - 0 +23.3 +3.7 +18.7
  Nov 16, 2024 206   Oakland W 78-57 97%     4 - 0 +15.9 +10.8 +7.4
  Nov 19, 2024 134   UNC Wilmington W 84-66 95%     5 - 0 +16.5 +9.2 +7.3
  Nov 26, 2024 2   Duke W 75-72 35%     6 - 0 +24.0 +15.7 +8.4
  Nov 30, 2024 128   Furman W 86-51 94%     7 - 0 +34.1 +18.8 +17.5
  Dec 04, 2024 48   @ Creighton L 63-76 65%     7 - 1 +0.3 -2.6 +2.9
  Dec 08, 2024 55   @ Missouri L 67-76 66%     7 - 2 +3.8 -4.6 +8.8
  Dec 14, 2024 78   North Carolina St. W 75-60 89%     8 - 2 +19.1 +14.0 +7.1
  Dec 22, 2024 156   Brown W 81-61 97%    
  Dec 31, 2024 39   West Virginia W 75-67 79%    
  Jan 05, 2025 84   @ Central Florida W 77-70 76%    
  Jan 08, 2025 62   Arizona St. W 80-69 85%    
  Jan 11, 2025 26   @ Cincinnati W 71-70 51%    
  Jan 15, 2025 5   @ Iowa St. L 74-79 31%    
  Jan 18, 2025 68   Kansas St. W 79-67 86%    
  Jan 22, 2025 88   @ TCU W 75-67 76%    
  Jan 25, 2025 6   Houston W 67-66 54%    
  Jan 28, 2025 84   Central Florida W 80-67 89%    
  Feb 01, 2025 12   @ Baylor L 73-75 43%    
  Feb 03, 2025 5   Iowa St. W 77-76 53%    
  Feb 08, 2025 68   @ Kansas St. W 76-70 71%    
  Feb 11, 2025 75   Colorado W 79-66 87%    
  Feb 15, 2025 66   @ Utah W 79-73 69%    
  Feb 18, 2025 40   @ BYU W 78-75 59%    
  Feb 22, 2025 97   Oklahoma St. W 84-69 91%    
  Feb 24, 2025 75   @ Colorado W 76-69 73%    
  Mar 01, 2025 24   Texas Tech W 76-70 72%    
  Mar 03, 2025 6   @ Houston L 64-69 32%    
  Mar 08, 2025 17   Arizona W 81-76 67%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 2.5 5.3 5.5 3.3 1.2 0.2 18.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.7 6.7 4.5 1.4 0.1 17.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.7 6.5 4.0 0.8 0.0 15.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.6 5.6 3.6 0.6 0.0 12.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 4.7 3.4 0.6 0.0 10.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.3 3.2 0.7 0.0 8.0 6th
7th 0.3 2.0 2.8 0.8 0.0 5.8 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 2.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 3.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 2.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.2 1.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.2 11th
12th 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.1 3.6 6.1 8.9 11.9 14.2 15.0 13.9 10.7 6.9 3.4 1.2 0.2 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 1.2    1.2 0.0
18-2 97.3% 3.3    3.0 0.4 0.0
17-3 79.7% 5.5    3.8 1.6 0.2
16-4 49.6% 5.3    2.4 2.2 0.7 0.1
15-5 18.3% 2.5    0.6 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0
14-6 3.8% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 18.7% 18.7 11.1 5.4 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 100.0% 46.8% 53.2% 1.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.2% 100.0% 38.4% 61.6% 1.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 100.0%
18-2 3.4% 100.0% 33.6% 66.4% 1.3 2.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 6.9% 100.0% 27.8% 72.2% 1.5 3.9 2.6 0.4 0.0 100.0%
16-4 10.7% 100.0% 24.0% 76.0% 1.9 3.8 4.8 1.8 0.3 0.0 100.0%
15-5 13.9% 100.0% 19.3% 80.7% 2.4 2.4 5.1 4.7 1.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-6 15.0% 100.0% 14.4% 85.6% 3.1 0.8 3.4 5.8 3.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-7 14.2% 100.0% 10.5% 89.5% 3.9 0.2 1.3 4.0 4.9 2.8 0.9 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-8 11.9% 99.9% 7.6% 92.4% 4.8 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.2 3.7 2.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-9 8.9% 99.8% 5.0% 94.9% 5.8 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 2.4 2.5 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
10-10 6.1% 99.2% 4.2% 95.0% 6.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 1.7 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.1%
9-11 3.6% 95.0% 2.4% 92.5% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.2 94.9%
8-12 2.1% 74.0% 1.8% 72.2% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.1 0.6 73.5%
7-13 1.0% 31.6% 0.4% 31.2% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.7 31.3%
6-14 0.5% 5.1% 0.9% 4.3% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 4.3%
5-15 0.2% 0.2
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 97.9% 14.3% 83.6% 3.8 14.7 18.7 18.8 15.0 11.0 7.6 4.7 2.7 1.8 1.4 1.3 0.2 2.1 97.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 90.9 9.1