Kansas
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+16.8#18
Expected Predictive Rating+15.7#26
Pace70.5#114
Improvement-3.8#319

Offense
Total Offense+6.6#43
First Shot+7.4#27
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#237
Layup/Dunks+9.3#3
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#177
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#169
Freethrows-2.2#305
Improvement-1.5#263

Defense
Total Defense+10.2#8
First Shot+6.5#23
After Offensive Rebounds+3.7#3
Layups/Dunks+7.8#11
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#295
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#230
Freethrows+0.8#118
Improvement-2.2#293
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.7% 0.8% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 14.8% 18.2% 0.6%
Top 6 Seed 49.8% 57.4% 18.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.8% 99.9% 99.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.8% 99.9% 99.4%
Average Seed 6.2 6.0 7.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round99.8% 99.9% 99.4%
Second Round72.7% 73.9% 67.8%
Sweet Sixteen32.9% 35.3% 22.9%
Elite Eight13.9% 14.4% 11.7%
Final Four5.3% 5.5% 4.7%
Championship Game1.9% 1.9% 1.6%
National Champion0.6% 0.6% 0.5%

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 84 - 8
Quad 1b2 - 26 - 10
Quad 26 - 212 - 12
Quad 36 - 018 - 12
Quad 43 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 315   Howard W 87-57 99%     1 - 0 +18.0 +4.7 +12.8
  Nov 08, 2024 36   North Carolina W 92-89 73%     2 - 0 +13.6 +13.5 -0.2
  Nov 12, 2024 8   Michigan St. W 77-69 40%     3 - 0 +27.5 +7.3 +19.3
  Nov 16, 2024 185   Oakland W 78-57 96%     4 - 0 +16.9 +10.7 +8.5
  Nov 19, 2024 111   UNC Wilmington W 84-66 92%     5 - 0 +18.9 +9.6 +9.2
  Nov 26, 2024 1   Duke W 75-72 18%     6 - 0 +29.7 +15.7 +14.0
  Nov 30, 2024 139   Furman W 86-51 95%     7 - 0 +33.5 +16.2 +19.4
  Dec 04, 2024 32   @ Creighton L 63-76 51%     7 - 1 +3.6 -1.8 +5.4
  Dec 08, 2024 19   @ Missouri L 67-76 40%     7 - 2 +10.5 -3.6 +14.4
  Dec 14, 2024 106   North Carolina St. W 75-60 92%     8 - 2 +16.1 +13.4 +4.7
  Dec 22, 2024 205   Brown W 87-53 97%     9 - 2 +28.8 +12.4 +16.2
  Dec 31, 2024 43   West Virginia L 61-62 77%     9 - 3 0 - 1 +8.0 +5.9 +1.9
  Jan 05, 2025 78   @ Central Florida W 99-48 74%     10 - 3 1 - 1 +61.1 +20.3 +36.0
  Jan 08, 2025 73   Arizona St. W 74-55 87%     11 - 3 2 - 1 +23.8 +6.8 +17.8
  Jan 11, 2025 45   @ Cincinnati W 54-40 60%     12 - 3 3 - 1 +28.3 -1.6 +31.9
  Jan 15, 2025 10   @ Iowa St. L 57-74 33%     12 - 4 3 - 2 +4.4 -4.6 +9.4
  Jan 18, 2025 59   Kansas St. W 84-74 82%     13 - 4 4 - 2 +17.0 +24.9 -7.0
  Jan 22, 2025 77   @ TCU W 74-61 74%     14 - 4 5 - 2 +23.1 +12.5 +11.1
  Jan 25, 2025 4   Houston L 86-92 2OT 38%     14 - 5 5 - 3 +14.1 +13.1 +1.7
  Jan 28, 2025 78   Central Florida W 91-87 87%     15 - 5 6 - 3 +8.6 +11.6 -3.4
  Feb 01, 2025 27   @ Baylor L 70-81 47%     15 - 6 6 - 4 +6.5 -1.5 +8.9
  Feb 03, 2025 10   Iowa St. W 69-52 53%     16 - 6 7 - 4 +32.9 +14.3 +20.7
  Feb 08, 2025 59   @ Kansas St. L 73-81 66%     16 - 7 7 - 5 +4.5 +6.0 -1.2
  Feb 11, 2025 85   Colorado W 71-59 88%     17 - 7 8 - 5 +15.9 +8.1 +8.8
  Feb 15, 2025 64   @ Utah L 67-74 70%     17 - 8 8 - 6 +4.5 +0.8 +3.6
  Feb 18, 2025 20   @ BYU L 57-91 41%     17 - 9 8 - 7 -14.8 -10.7 -3.4
  Feb 22, 2025 91   Oklahoma St. W 96-64 90%     18 - 9 9 - 7 +34.9 +18.9 +13.5
  Feb 24, 2025 85   @ Colorado W 71-64 76%     19 - 9 10 - 7 +16.4 +5.9 +10.6
  Mar 01, 2025 7   Texas Tech L 73-78 49%     19 - 10 10 - 8 +12.0 +9.5 +2.3
  Mar 03, 2025 4   @ Houston L 59-65 20%     19 - 11 10 - 9 +19.6 +3.9 +15.2
  Mar 08, 2025 12   Arizona W 83-76 56%     20 - 11 11 - 9 +22.2 +21.6 +1.1
Projected Record 20 - 11 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 100.0 100.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 100.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 100.0% 99.8% 5.6% 94.2% 6.2 0.7 4.8 9.3 14.8 20.2 28.8 17.6 3.3 0.2 0.2 99.8%
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.8% 5.6% 94.2% 6.2 0.7 4.8 9.3 14.8 20.2 28.8 17.6 3.3 0.2 0.2 99.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.6% 100.0% 3.4 10.6 46.1 34.2 8.4 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 10.7% 100.0% 4.6 0.6 13.3 32.6 36.4 13.4 3.6 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 19.8% 100.0% 5.5 3.7 15.5 29.8 29.5 17.8 3.6 0.1
Lose Out 19.6% 99.4% 7.3 0.6 3.9 14.0 36.2 35.8 8.4 0.6