Green Bay
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.1 #255
Expected Predictive Rating -1.6 #197
Pace 61.1 #351
Improvement +0.6 #146

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #140 B- F C+ B+ C+
Defense #336 D+ D+ F C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #124 1.18 #157 +1.6 #120
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #225 0.83 #80 -0.4 #196
Three Pointers 41% #172 1.05 #134 +0.9 #146
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #116 +2.2 #118
Freethrows 20.3 #44 74% #155 15.0 #49
Second Chance 23.3% #341 1.02 #206 0.24 #334
Turnovers 15.5% #124
Total Offense +0.8 #140

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #275 1.28 #317 -0.2 #183
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #200 0.78 #217 +0.1 #181
Three Pointers 45% #67 1.05 #225 -2.9 #297
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #275 -3.0 #275
Freethrows 19.0 #277 71% #113 13.5 #247
Second Chance 28.8% #105 1.21 #346 0.35 #255
Turnovers 12.8% #349
Total Defense -5.9 #336

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.0% #123 -0.2% #141
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.3% #126 6.1% #292
Possession Length 19.8 #359 17.0 #139
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #340 0.18 #199
Improvement +2.9 #43 -2.3 #309

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.4% 5.7% 3.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.2 15.4
.500 or above 33.4% 53.1% 25.0%
.500 or above in Conference 73.3% 89.1% 66.6%
Conference Champion 2.1% 4.6% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.7% 0.4% 0.8%
First Round4.1% 5.6% 3.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Robert Morris (Away) - 29.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 34 - 84 - 12
Quad 410 - 414 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 19 @Kansas L 51 - 94 2% -23  0 - 1 -23 -7 C- F B+ -20 F A+ F
 Fri, Nov 7 201 @Buffalo L 76 - 83 30% -3  0 - 2 -7 +7 A+ F C+ -14 F D- F
 Thu, Nov 13 131 @St. Thomas L 61 - 80 18% -19  0 - 3 -14 -10 F F D -4 D+ A+ D-
 Sat, Nov 15 71 @Minnesota L 65 - 72 OT 8% -1  0 - 4 +4 -3 C- D D +8 B A+ F
 Fri, Nov 21 83 Yale L 67 - 73 13% -6  0 - 5 +1 +3 F A+ B+ -2 C B C
 Sat, Nov 22 176 Massachusetts W 79 - 75 35% +4  1 - 5 +3 +10 B- D A+ -7 A F F
 Mon, Nov 24 227 Iona W 80 - 75 45% -0  2 - 5 +1 +10 F A+ A+ -8 C F F
 Thu, Dec 4 200 Robert Morris L 78 - 80 52% +1  2 - 6 0 - 1 -8 +4 A+ F C- -11 D- C D+
 Sun, Dec 7 154 @Wright St. L 58 - 86 21% -12  2 - 7 0 - 2 -25 -12 F C- F -13 C F F
 Thu, Dec 11 337 @IU Indianapolis W 85 - 75 62% +1  3 - 7 1 - 2 +2 +3 C F C- -1 A+ F F
 Wed, Dec 17 144 UC Santa Barbara W 67 - 64 39% +8  4 - 7 +1 +5 A+ F A+ -4 D- D+ B-
 Tue, Dec 23 190 @Campbell L 79 - 102 28% -9  4 - 8 -22 +10 A+ D F -33 F F F
 Thu, Jan 1 212 @Purdue Fort Wayne W 72 - 54 32% +10  5 - 8 2 - 2 +18 +8 C+ C B +12 A- C+ B+
 Mon, Jan 5 248 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 79 - 76 61% +8  6 - 8 3 - 2 -5 +9 A+ F A- -14 F A+ C+
 Fri, Jan 9 337 IU Indianapolis W 75 - 59 81% +9  7 - 8 4 - 2 +2 -9 F F F +10 A+ A F
 Sun, Jan 11 178 Northern Kentucky W 80 - 78 47% +13  8 - 8 5 - 2 -2 +18 A+ D+ A+ -20 D- A+ F
 Thu, Jan 15 316 @Cleveland St. W 88 - 73 56% +2  9 - 8 6 - 2 +9 +21 A+ A- C+ -10 F B- F
 Sun, Jan 18 139 Oakland L 63 - 88 37% -11  9 - 9 6 - 3 -27 -9 D F D- -20 F F C
 Thu, Jan 22 213 @Youngstown St. L 81 - 88 32% -8  9 - 10 6 - 4 -7 +13 A+ F C -20 F F F
 Sat, Jan 24 200 @Robert Morris L 70 - 75 30%
 Fri, Jan 30 316 Cleveland St. W 81 - 74 76%
 Sun, Feb 1 154 Wright St. L 72 - 74 41%
 Wed, Feb 4 178 @Northern Kentucky L 71 - 78 26%
 Sat, Feb 7 286 Detroit Mercy W 77 - 72 69%
 Thu, Feb 12 212 Purdue Fort Wayne W 75 - 74 55%
 Sun, Feb 15 248 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 73 - 76 38%
 Fri, Feb 20 139 @Oakland L 75 - 84 19%
 Sun, Feb 22 286 @Detroit Mercy L 74 - 75 47%
 Sat, Feb 28 213 Youngstown St. W 73 - 72 55%
Totals 14 - 15 11 - 9 -5 +1 B- F C+ -6 D+ D+ F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.4 0.1 2.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 2.8 1.5 0.2 5.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.7 6.5 4.4 0.5 0.0 13.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.6 8.0 7.3 0.8 17.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 7.6 9.4 1.8 0.0 19.4 5th
6th 0.2 5.0 9.9 2.9 0.1 18.1 6th
7th 0.1 2.0 7.8 3.1 0.1 13.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 4.4 2.5 0.1 7.6 8th
9th 0.2 1.4 1.4 0.1 3.1 9th
10th 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.3 2.4 8.0 16.0 22.3 22.2 16.7 8.4 3.1 0.6 0.1 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-5 71.2% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.1
14-6 33.3% 1.0    0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1
13-7 5.5% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.1% 2.1 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.1% 0.1
15-5 0.6% 14.4% 14.4% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
14-6 3.1% 10.0% 10.0% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 2.8
13-7 8.4% 8.8% 8.8% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 7.7
12-8 16.7% 6.9% 6.9% 15.3 0.0 0.8 0.3 15.5
11-9 22.2% 4.8% 4.8% 15.4 0.0 0.6 0.4 21.1
10-10 22.3% 3.1% 3.1% 15.8 0.1 0.6 21.6
9-11 16.0% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2 15.8
8-12 8.0% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 7.9
7-13 2.4% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 2.3
6-14 0.3% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.3
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 15.3 95.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%