Oakland
Horizon
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.7#137
Expected Predictive Rating+3.5#122
Pace75.8#39
Improvement+0.1#172

Offense
Total Offense+4.7#68
First Shot+4.8#66
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#181
Layup/Dunks+5.3#32
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#184
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#237
Freethrows+1.2#110
Improvement-1.2#265

Defense
Total Defense-3.0#276
First Shot-2.4#255
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#238
Layups/Dunks-1.9#252
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#248
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#259
Freethrows+2.1#54
Improvement+1.3#101
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.4% 30.1% 23.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.5 14.0
.500 or above 89.2% 95.4% 84.4%
.500 or above in Conference 98.3% 99.6% 97.2%
Conference Champion 50.1% 65.8% 37.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round26.4% 30.1% 23.5%
Second Round1.5% 1.8% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wright St. (Away) - 43.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 5
Quad 20 - 10 - 6
Quad 36 - 46 - 10
Quad 414 - 219 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 1 @Michigan L 78-121 1%     0 - 1 -13.2 +13.2 -22.1
  Fri, Nov 7 5 @Purdue L 77-87 3%     0 - 2 +14.8 +13.8 +1.0
  Wed, Nov 12 8 @Houston L 45-78 3%     0 - 3 -9.7 -10.2 -3.8
  Mon, Nov 17 49 @Central Florida L 83-87 14%     0 - 4 +9.4 +11.6 -2.0
  Fri, Nov 21 216 @Eastern Michigan L 91-97 59%     0 - 5 -6.5 +13.9 -20.1
  Mon, Nov 24 253 Lamar W 83-68 75%     1 - 5 +9.8 +9.0 +0.6
  Tue, Nov 25 209 @Montana W 95-87 57%     2 - 5 +7.8 +11.8 -4.8
  Wed, Dec 3 199 Purdue Fort Wayne W 101-92 75%     3 - 5 1 - 0 +3.6 +14.9 -12.1
  Sat, Dec 6 170 Toledo W 98-97 70%     4 - 5 -2.7 +10.1 -12.9
  Sat, Dec 13 93 @Northern Iowa L 63-75 24%     4 - 6 -3.0 -3.2 +0.6
  Wed, Dec 17 208 @Northern Kentucky W 82-77 57%     5 - 6 2 - 0 +4.9 +6.4 -1.8
  Sat, Dec 20 16 Michigan St. L 70-79 8%     5 - 7 +8.4 +9.9 -1.7
  Mon, Dec 29 153 @Wright St. L 78-80 44%    
  Thu, Jan 1 163 @Youngstown St. L 79-80 47%    
  Sun, Jan 4 185 Robert Morris W 82-76 72%    
  Fri, Jan 9 334 Cleveland St. W 93-78 92%    
  Sun, Jan 11 153 Wright St. W 81-77 66%    
  Thu, Jan 15 210 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 85-83 57%    
  Sun, Jan 18 283 @Green Bay W 82-77 69%    
  Wed, Jan 21 354 IU Indianapolis W 103-85 95%    
  Sat, Jan 24 296 @Detroit Mercy W 84-78 71%    
  Wed, Jan 28 199 @Purdue Fort Wayne W 86-85 54%    
  Sun, Feb 1 208 Northern Kentucky W 87-79 76%    
  Wed, Feb 4 334 @Cleveland St. W 90-81 80%    
  Thu, Feb 12 163 Youngstown St. W 82-77 68%    
  Sun, Feb 15 185 @Robert Morris W 79-78 52%    
  Fri, Feb 20 283 Green Bay W 85-74 85%    
  Sun, Feb 22 210 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 88-80 76%    
  Wed, Feb 25 354 @IU Indianapolis W 100-88 87%    
  Sat, Feb 28 296 Detroit Mercy W 87-75 86%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 3.3 9.5 13.3 12.2 7.4 3.2 0.7 50.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 3.1 7.4 6.5 2.6 0.4 0.0 20.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 2.0 5.2 3.8 0.7 0.1 11.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 3.6 2.7 0.4 0.0 7.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.2 1.8 0.3 0.0 4.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.2 2.3 4.6 7.9 11.6 14.9 16.8 16.0 12.6 7.4 3.2 0.7 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
19-1 100.0% 3.2    3.2
18-2 99.8% 7.4    7.3 0.1
17-3 96.7% 12.2    11.0 1.1 0.0
16-4 83.3% 13.3    9.5 3.5 0.3
15-5 56.5% 9.5    4.5 3.9 1.0 0.1
14-6 22.0% 3.3    0.7 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.0
13-7 3.3% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 50.1% 50.1 37.0 10.2 2.5 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.7% 54.5% 54.5% 11.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.3
19-1 3.2% 49.6% 49.6% 12.6 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.1 1.6
18-2 7.4% 42.6% 42.6% 13.0 0.0 0.6 1.9 0.7 0.0 4.3
17-3 12.6% 36.5% 36.5% 13.4 0.4 2.3 1.8 0.1 8.0
16-4 16.0% 30.6% 30.6% 13.7 0.2 1.6 2.7 0.5 11.1
15-5 16.8% 26.9% 26.9% 14.0 0.0 1.0 2.5 1.0 0.0 12.3
14-6 14.9% 22.2% 22.2% 14.2 0.0 0.5 1.8 0.9 0.0 11.6
13-7 11.6% 18.3% 18.3% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.1 9.5
12-8 7.9% 13.8% 13.8% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.1 6.8
11-9 4.6% 10.3% 10.3% 15.3 0.0 0.3 0.2 4.1
10-10 2.3% 7.0% 7.0% 15.9 0.0 0.2 2.2
9-11 1.2% 4.9% 4.9% 16.0 0.1 1.1
8-12 0.4% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.4
7-13 0.2% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 26.4% 26.4% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.3 2.1 8.2 10.3 4.9 0.6 73.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 11.5 1.7 46.3 47.1 5.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%