Oakland
Horizon
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.2#185
Expected Predictive Rating-3.2#213
Pace59.0#359
Improvement+2.5#52

Offense
Total Offense+0.7#154
First Shot-1.5#221
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#54
Layup/Dunks-0.1#179
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#162
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#163
Freethrows-2.0#294
Improvement+4.2#6

Defense
Total Defense-1.9#228
First Shot+0.7#145
After Offensive Rebounds-2.6#344
Layups/Dunks+4.5#44
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#348
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#300
Freethrows+2.4#38
Improvement-1.7#304
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.9% 15.8% 11.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.2 15.0
.500 or above 32.0% 59.6% 30.5%
.500 or above in Conference 78.5% 88.0% 78.0%
Conference Champion 9.1% 13.4% 8.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.0% 0.5%
First Four2.5% 0.8% 2.6%
First Round11.0% 15.5% 10.8%
Second Round0.3% 0.7% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas (Away) - 5.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 5
Quad 20 - 20 - 7
Quad 34 - 65 - 13
Quad 410 - 415 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 59   @ Boise St. L 43-87 11%     0 - 1 -32.0 -21.2 -13.8
  Nov 13, 2024 21   @ Illinois L 54-66 5%     0 - 2 +6.2 -8.7 +14.6
  Nov 16, 2024 9   @ Kansas L 57-78 3%     0 - 3 -0.1 +1.7 -4.2
  Nov 21, 2024 310   Eastern Michigan L 64-68 83%     0 - 4 -15.2 -7.5 -8.2
  Nov 30, 2024 208   @ Toledo W 85-52 43%     1 - 4 +33.6 +18.0 +19.1
  Dec 05, 2024 187   Wright St. W 66-64 62%     2 - 4 1 - 0 -2.3 -3.0 +1.0
  Dec 07, 2024 190   @ Youngstown St. L 50-66 40%     2 - 5 1 - 1 -14.5 -10.3 -6.7
  Dec 17, 2024 15   Michigan St. L 58-77 7%     2 - 6 -3.2 -0.3 -4.8
  Dec 19, 2024 207   @ Cleveland St. L 75-92 43%     2 - 7 1 - 2 -16.3 +10.2 -27.9
  Dec 22, 2024 121   Loyola Chicago W 72-71 36%     3 - 7 +3.6 +8.8 -5.2
  Dec 23, 2024 69   Oregon St. L 74-80 OT 19%     3 - 8 +1.9 +7.6 -5.8
  Dec 25, 2024 166   @ Hawaii L 70-73 OT 36%     3 - 9 -0.4 +0.4 -0.8
  Dec 30, 2024 30   @ Arkansas L 62-79 5%    
  Jan 02, 2025 141   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 73-72 54%    
  Jan 04, 2025 252   Robert Morris W 71-64 73%    
  Jan 09, 2025 187   @ Wright St. L 70-73 39%    
  Jan 11, 2025 206   @ Northern Kentucky L 63-65 42%    
  Jan 15, 2025 343   IU Indianapolis W 75-62 90%    
  Jan 18, 2025 321   @ Detroit Mercy W 69-64 68%    
  Jan 22, 2025 146   Purdue Fort Wayne W 73-72 55%    
  Jan 25, 2025 252   @ Robert Morris W 68-67 52%    
  Jan 30, 2025 330   Green Bay W 77-65 85%    
  Feb 01, 2025 206   Northern Kentucky W 66-62 65%    
  Feb 06, 2025 190   Youngstown St. W 67-64 61%    
  Feb 12, 2025 343   @ IU Indianapolis W 72-65 75%    
  Feb 16, 2025 321   Detroit Mercy W 72-61 83%    
  Feb 21, 2025 146   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 70-75 33%    
  Feb 23, 2025 207   Cleveland St. W 68-64 65%    
  Feb 27, 2025 141   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 70-75 33%    
  Mar 01, 2025 330   @ Green Bay W 74-68 70%    
Projected Record 13 - 17 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.4 2.4 0.9 0.1 9.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.4 5.2 2.2 0.6 0.0 12.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 4.3 6.6 2.6 0.2 0.0 14.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.7 7.4 3.1 0.2 14.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.1 7.2 3.5 0.3 0.0 14.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.7 6.0 3.7 0.4 0.0 13.2 6th
7th 0.4 2.3 4.8 3.2 0.4 11.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.8 1.7 0.3 0.0 7.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 0.6 0.1 2.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 3.4 6.1 9.6 13.2 15.6 16.3 13.8 9.8 5.9 3.0 0.9 0.1 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-3 96.0% 0.9    0.8 0.1
16-4 81.1% 2.4    1.6 0.8 0.1
15-5 58.2% 3.4    1.5 1.6 0.4 0.0
14-6 19.2% 1.9    0.4 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.9% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 9.1% 9.1 4.4 3.4 1.1 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.1% 14.8% 14.8% 13.0 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.9% 30.0% 30.0% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.7
16-4 3.0% 29.7% 29.7% 13.6 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 2.1
15-5 5.9% 26.2% 26.2% 14.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.0 4.3
14-6 9.8% 20.1% 20.1% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.1 7.9
13-7 13.8% 16.0% 16.0% 14.9 0.1 0.3 1.6 0.2 11.6
12-8 16.3% 12.6% 12.6% 15.4 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.9 14.2
11-9 15.6% 8.1% 8.1% 15.9 0.1 1.1 14.3
10-10 13.2% 7.2% 7.2% 16.0 0.0 0.9 12.2
9-11 9.6% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.4 9.2
8-12 6.1% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.2 5.9
7-13 3.4% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.1 3.3
6-14 1.4% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.3
5-15 0.6% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.0 0.6
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 11.9% 11.9% 0.0% 14.9 0.1 1.1 2.5 4.3 4.0 88.1 0.0%