Oakland
Horizon
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.3 #139
Expected Predictive Rating +1.8 #132
Pace 74.5 #48
Improvement -2.1 #277

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #70 C C+ A A- B-
Defense #279 D C D+ B+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #42 1.16 #178 +3.5 #72
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #186 0.71 #245 -0.7 #210
Three Pointers 35% #300 1.06 #122 -2.1 #260
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #159 +0.7 #159
Freethrows 20.7 #26 74% #139 15.4 #31
Second Chance 31.5% #156 1.11 #94 0.35 #109
Turnovers 13.4% #22
Total Offense +4.8 #70

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #247 1.33 #348 -1.9 #242
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #95 0.90 #341 -2.6 #342
Three Pointers 41% #198 0.98 #129 +0.9 #142
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #287 -3.5 #288
Freethrows 14.1 #35 73% #197 10.3 #41
Second Chance 33.2% #290 0.96 #72 0.32 #187
Turnovers 15.3% #254
Total Defense -3.5 #279

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.0% #120 -0.9% #94
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.4% #171 7.9% #319
Possession Length 16.3 #86 16.7 #81
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.26 #23 0.15 #94
Improvement -3.0 #333 +0.9 #120

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.0% 29.2% 25.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.6 14.1
.500 or above 93.3% 96.3% 86.4%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 100.0% 99.3%
Conference Champion 50.8% 58.1% 33.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round28.0% 29.2% 25.0%
Second Round1.3% 1.5% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Detroit Mercy (Away) - 70.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 5
Quad 20 - 10 - 6
Quad 36 - 46 - 10
Quad 413 - 319 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 1 @Michigan L 78 - 121 2% -27  0 - 1 -15 +12 A+ D- A+ -23 F F F
 Fri, Nov 7 5 @Purdue L 77 - 87 3% -3  0 - 2 +14 +14 B- A+ A+ +1 B- A+ F
 Wed, Nov 12 4 @Houston L 45 - 78 3% -21  0 - 3 -8 -9 F F A- -4 C B- D-
 Mon, Nov 17 53 @Central Florida L 83 - 87 13% -5  0 - 4 +10 +13 B- C A+ -3 C C+ C
 Fri, Nov 21 198 @Eastern Michigan L 91 - 97 53% -1  0 - 5 -6 +15 A+ B+ A+ -20 F A C
 Mon, Nov 24 211 Lamar W 83 - 68 67% +4  1 - 5 +12 +10 D+ A+ A- +1 B- F A+
 Tue, Nov 25 161 @Montana W 95 - 87 44% +4  2 - 5 +11 +14 A+ F B -4 D+ F C+
 Wed, Dec 3 212 Purdue Fort Wayne W 101 - 92 76% +8  3 - 5 1 - 0 +3 +15 A+ C+ A+ -14 D- C F
 Sat, Dec 6 166 Toledo W 98 - 97 68% -1  4 - 5 -3 +10 C- B+ A+ -13 F F C
 Sat, Dec 13 110 @Northern Iowa L 63 - 75 30% -5  4 - 6 -5 -4 C C F -1 C B F
 Wed, Dec 17 178 @Northern Kentucky W 82 - 77 48% +2  5 - 6 2 - 0 +7 +7 D F A+ -0 C+ B- F
 Sat, Dec 20 11 Michigan St. L 70 - 79 5% -4  5 - 7 +11 +13 A+ C+ C -2 B+ C+ C-
 Mon, Dec 29 154 @Wright St. L 73 - 88 42% -14  5 - 8 2 - 1 -12 -0 F D- D+ -11 F B- B-
 Thu, Jan 1 213 @Youngstown St. W 85 - 83 56% -4  6 - 8 3 - 1 +2 +17 A+ B A+ -15 C F F
 Sun, Jan 4 200 Robert Morris W 96 - 73 74% +14  7 - 8 4 - 1 +17 +21 C- A+ A+ -3 C- A D-
 Fri, Jan 9 316 Cleveland St. W 97 - 72 90% +14  8 - 8 5 - 1 +13 +9 F A+ D+ +2 A+ F F
 Sun, Jan 11 154 Wright St. L 84 - 94 65% -17  8 - 9 5 - 2 -13 +5 C F A+ -17 F A+ A+
 Thu, Jan 15 248 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 73 - 60 62% +9  9 - 9 6 - 2 +11 -7 F A- F +17 A+ C+ B+
 Sun, Jan 18 255 @Green Bay W 88 - 63 63% +11  10 - 9 7 - 2 +23 +19 A- A+ C- +6 C+ A- B
 Wed, Jan 21 337 IU Indianapolis L 85 - 103 92% -8  10 - 10 7 - 3 -32 +1 F B A+ -33 F F D
 Sat, Jan 24 286 @Detroit Mercy W 86 - 80 70%
 Wed, Jan 28 212 @Purdue Fort Wayne W 84 - 82 56%
 Sun, Feb 1 178 Northern Kentucky W 87 - 81 70%
 Wed, Feb 4 316 @Cleveland St. W 90 - 82 77%
 Thu, Feb 12 213 Youngstown St. W 85 - 77 76%
 Sun, Feb 15 200 @Robert Morris W 81 - 80 53%
 Fri, Feb 20 255 Green Bay W 84 - 75 81%
 Sun, Feb 22 248 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 88 - 79 80%
 Wed, Feb 25 337 @IU Indianapolis W 97 - 87 81%
 Sat, Feb 28 286 Detroit Mercy W 89 - 77 85%
Totals 17 - 13 14 - 6 +1 +5 C C+ A -4 D C D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.8 10.0 18.1 15.5 5.3 50.8 1st
2nd 0.0 1.5 9.0 12.9 6.9 1.7 0.1 32.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.5 4.9 1.1 0.0 10.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 2.5 0.5 0.0 4.3 4th
5th 0.3 1.1 0.4 0.0 1.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 3.1 7.9 16.2 24.0 25.1 17.2 5.4 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 97.7% 5.3    5.0 0.4
16-4 90.0% 15.5    12.4 3.1 0.0
15-5 72.3% 18.1    10.7 6.8 0.6 0.0
14-6 41.5% 10.0    2.9 4.9 1.9 0.3
13-7 11.0% 1.8    0.1 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.1
12-8 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 50.8% 50.8 31.2 15.7 3.2 0.6 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 5.4% 39.2% 39.2% 12.5 0.1 1.1 1.0 0.1 3.3
16-4 17.2% 34.4% 34.4% 13.3 0.6 3.1 2.1 0.1 11.3
15-5 25.1% 30.5% 30.5% 13.7 0.2 2.8 3.9 0.8 17.4
14-6 24.0% 26.9% 26.9% 14.0 0.1 1.3 3.8 1.4 0.0 17.6
13-7 16.2% 23.7% 23.7% 14.4 0.0 0.3 1.9 1.7 0.0 12.4
12-8 7.9% 17.8% 17.8% 14.9 0.3 1.1 0.1 6.5
11-9 3.1% 15.0% 15.0% 15.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 2.7
10-10 0.8% 9.5% 9.5% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.7
9-11 0.2% 12.8% 12.8% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2
8-12 0.0% 0.0
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 28.0% 28.0% 0.0% 13.8 72.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.1% 100.0% 12.5 3.1 49.3 44.8 2.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.3%