Purdue
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +21.2 #5
Expected Predictive Rating +23.2 #8
Pace 64.2 #304
Improvement -2.4 #290

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #1 A+ A+ A+ C- D
Defense #20 A- A- C+ A+ A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #270 1.47 #2 +3.6 #66
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #95 0.86 #52 +2.9 #53
Three Pointers 40% #205 1.19 #12 +2.9 #91
1st FG Attempt 1.21 #5 +9.5 #5
Freethrows 15.3 #282 77% #51 11.8 #230
Second Chance 38.3% #16 1.18 #39 0.45 #15
Turnovers 12.3% #7
Total Offense +13.4 #1

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 27% #360 1.18 #206 +6.7 #16
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #20 0.75 #153 -2.8 #347
Three Pointers 45% #59 0.87 #29 +1.2 #134
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #46 +5.1 #46
Freethrows 8.9 #1 69% #36 6.1 #1
Second Chance 23.1% #8 1.05 #197 0.24 #28
Turnovers 17.3% #123
Total Defense +7.8 #20

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.6% #289 -3.6% #10
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 20.4% #1 -6.6% #66
Possession Length 17.1 #150 19.0 #356
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #181 0.10 #14
Improvement -1.5 #273 -0.8 #244

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 6.2% 7.8% 3.4%
#1 Seed 30.6% 36.8% 20.0%
Top 2 Seed 65.3% 73.5% 51.1%
Top 4 Seed 96.1% 98.3% 92.4%
Top 6 Seed 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 2.2 2.0 2.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
Conference Champion 24.1% 32.2% 10.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round97.9% 98.5% 96.7%
Sweet Sixteen71.9% 73.7% 68.7%
Elite Eight43.3% 45.8% 38.9%
Final Four23.6% 25.3% 20.6%
Championship Game12.3% 13.7% 10.0%
National Champion6.1% 6.9% 4.6%

Next Game: Illinois (Home) - 63.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a8 - 58 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 112 - 6
Quad 27 - 019 - 6
Quad 36 - 024 - 6
Quad 42 - 027 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 271 Evansville W 82 - 51 99% +18  1 - 0 +22 +19 A+ B A+ +7 A+ F F
 Fri, Nov 7 139 Oakland W 87 - 77 97% +3  2 - 0 +8 +9 B- D A+ -1 B C- C
 Thu, Nov 13 17 @Alabama W 87 - 80 51% +2  3 - 0 +28 +22 A+ A+ B- +6 B+ A+ F
 Sun, Nov 16 64 Akron W 97 - 79 92% +12  4 - 0 +24 +20 A- A+ C +3 A+ D C
 Thu, Nov 20 92 Memphis W 80 - 71 92% +1  5 - 0 +15 +16 A+ D A+ -1 A- C- D+
 Fri, Nov 21 15 Texas Tech W 86 - 56 62% +17  6 - 0 +48 +25 A+ A+ C+ +24 A+ A- C-
 Fri, Nov 28 310 Eastern Illinois W 109 - 62 99% +25  7 - 0 +35 +32 A+ A+ A +2 F A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 2 115 @Rutgers W 81 - 65 91% +12  8 - 0 1 - 0 +22 +18 B+ A A+ +5 D- A+ D+
 Sat, Dec 6 8 Iowa St. L 58 - 81 64% -9  8 - 1 -6 -1 D- A- B- -6 F A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 10 71 Minnesota W 85 - 57 93% +15  9 - 1 2 - 0 +33 +21 A+ A+ A+ +14 A+ A+ D+
 Sat, Dec 13 102 Marquette W 79 - 59 95% +16  10 - 1 +22 +13 A+ A+ D +10 A+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 27 Auburn W 88 - 60 73% +13  11 - 1 +43 +26 A+ A+ B+ +19 A+ A+ B
 Mon, Dec 29 148 Kent St. W 101 - 60 97% +24  12 - 1 +39 +17 A+ C A+ +19 A+ A+ B
 Sat, Jan 3 35 @Wisconsin W 89 - 73 67% +8  13 - 1 3 - 0 +33 +21 B A+ A+ +12 A+ C- A-
 Wed, Jan 7 47 Washington W 81 - 73 89% +14  14 - 1 4 - 0 +16 +10 A+ A+ F +5 C+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 116 Penn St. W 93 - 85 96% +5  15 - 1 5 - 0 +8 +23 A+ A A+ -14 F F B
 Wed, Jan 14 23 Iowa W 79 - 72 77% -1  16 - 1 6 - 0 +20 +20 A+ C A+ +1 D C A+
 Sat, Jan 17 48 @USC W 69 - 64 76% -2  17 - 1 7 - 0 +19 +5 C C A+ +14 A+ F B
 Tue, Jan 20 36 @UCLA L 67 - 69 68% +2  17 - 2 7 - 1 +14 +15 C+ A+ A+ -1 F A+ B+
 Sat, Jan 24 9 Illinois W 78 - 74 63%
 Tue, Jan 27 37 @Indiana W 78 - 73 68%
 Sun, Feb 1 100 @Maryland W 81 - 68 89%
 Sat, Feb 7 68 Oregon W 82 - 66 94%
 Tue, Feb 10 14 @Nebraska W 75 - 74 50%
 Sat, Feb 14 23 @Iowa W 71 - 69 56%
 Tue, Feb 17 1 Michigan L 78 - 79 47%
 Fri, Feb 20 37 Indiana W 81 - 70 84%
 Thu, Feb 26 11 Michigan St. W 72 - 68 65%
 Sun, Mar 1 30 @Ohio St. W 78 - 74 64%
 Wed, Mar 4 60 @Northwestern W 78 - 69 80%
 Sat, Mar 7 35 Wisconsin W 84 - 73 84%
Totals 25 - 6 15 - 5 +21 +13 A+ A+ A+ +8 A- A- C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 3.3 9.9 8.3 2.3 24.1 1st
2nd 0.2 2.9 11.3 6.4 0.5 21.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.0 8.8 7.3 0.6 18.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 6.6 7.4 1.0 16.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 4.1 5.7 1.4 0.0 12.0 5th
6th 0.2 1.4 2.4 0.8 0.0 4.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.5 0.0 2.1 7th
8th 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.1 3.6 8.2 15.2 20.8 22.9 16.8 8.8 2.3 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 2.3    2.3 0.0
18-2 94.5% 8.3    5.9 2.3 0.1
17-3 58.9% 9.9    3.2 4.6 1.9 0.2
16-4 14.6% 3.3    0.3 1.2 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
15-5 1.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 24.1% 24.1 11.8 8.1 3.3 0.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 2.3% 100.0% 33.0% 67.0% 1.2 1.9 0.4 100.0%
18-2 8.8% 100.0% 27.5% 72.5% 1.3 6.2 2.5 0.2 100.0%
17-3 16.8% 100.0% 23.4% 76.6% 1.5 9.3 6.6 1.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 22.9% 100.0% 18.9% 81.1% 1.8 8.2 10.9 3.5 0.3 0.0 100.0%
15-5 20.8% 100.0% 14.3% 85.7% 2.3 3.8 9.1 6.3 1.5 0.1 100.0%
14-6 15.2% 100.0% 10.2% 89.8% 2.8 1.1 4.1 6.4 3.2 0.4 0.0 100.0%
13-7 8.2% 100.0% 8.0% 92.0% 3.5 0.2 1.0 3.0 2.9 1.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-8 3.6% 100.0% 4.9% 95.1% 4.1 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.4 1.0 0.3 0.0 100.0%
11-9 1.1% 100.0% 5.9% 94.1% 4.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
10-10 0.2% 100.0% 4.8% 95.2% 5.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
9-11 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-12 0.0% 0.0
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 16.9% 83.1% 2.2 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 1.1 90.0 10.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6% 100.0% 1.2 81.7 18.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6% 100.0% 1.2 78.3 21.7