Purdue
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.3#16
Expected Predictive Rating+16.1#22
Pace64.5#281
Improvement+0.7#167

Offense
Total Offense+12.2#7
First Shot+10.4#6
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#77
Layup/Dunks+0.6#156
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#80
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.4#36
Freethrows+2.6#43
Improvement+1.4#117

Defense
Total Defense+5.0#57
First Shot+4.7#53
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#146
Layups/Dunks+3.2#66
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#267
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#233
Freethrows+3.1#18
Improvement-0.7#228
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 5.3% 6.6% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 48.1% 56.9% 13.5%
Top 6 Seed 92.9% 96.6% 78.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 4.6 4.3 5.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round84.5% 86.2% 77.7%
Sweet Sixteen47.2% 48.8% 41.2%
Elite Eight18.1% 18.9% 14.8%
Final Four7.1% 7.5% 5.8%
Championship Game2.5% 2.6% 2.0%
National Champion0.8% 0.8% 0.6%

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 74 - 7
Quad 1b5 - 38 - 10
Quad 29 - 117 - 11
Quad 32 - 019 - 11
Quad 44 - 023 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 179   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 90-73 96%     1 - 0 +13.2 +12.4 +0.1
  Nov 08, 2024 222   Northern Kentucky W 72-50 97%     2 - 0 +15.9 +6.0 +12.7
  Nov 11, 2024 75   Yale W 92-84 88%     3 - 0 +12.7 +16.5 -4.0
  Nov 15, 2024 5   Alabama W 87-78 46%     4 - 0 +27.3 +23.0 +4.6
  Nov 19, 2024 25   @ Marquette L 58-76 47%     4 - 1 +0.1 -3.7 +3.2
  Nov 23, 2024 167   Marshall W 80-45 96%     5 - 1 +31.8 +9.4 +24.0
  Nov 28, 2024 106   North Carolina St. W 71-61 89%     6 - 1 +13.9 +13.9 +1.8
  Nov 29, 2024 29   Mississippi W 80-78 61%     7 - 1 +16.3 +23.0 -6.5
  Dec 05, 2024 58   @ Penn St. L 70-81 67%     7 - 2 0 - 1 +1.7 +1.4 +0.5
  Dec 08, 2024 11   Maryland W 83-78 57%     8 - 2 1 - 1 +20.5 +19.9 +0.6
  Dec 14, 2024 22   Texas A&M L 66-70 54%     8 - 3 +12.3 +7.4 +4.6
  Dec 21, 2024 2   Auburn L 69-87 25%     8 - 4 +6.2 +7.6 -2.0
  Dec 29, 2024 248   Toledo W 83-64 98%     9 - 4 +11.5 +4.3 +8.0
  Jan 02, 2025 86   @ Minnesota W 81-61 77%     10 - 4 2 - 1 +29.4 +29.4 +3.9
  Jan 05, 2025 51   Northwestern W 79-61 81%     11 - 4 3 - 1 +26.1 +15.8 +11.5
  Jan 09, 2025 65   @ Rutgers W 68-50 71%     12 - 4 4 - 1 +29.4 +6.1 +25.1
  Jan 12, 2025 57   Nebraska W 104-68 83%     13 - 4 5 - 1 +43.3 +34.5 +8.5
  Jan 15, 2025 104   @ Washington W 69-58 84%     14 - 4 6 - 1 +17.7 +5.1 +13.5
  Jan 18, 2025 34   @ Oregon W 65-58 54%     15 - 4 7 - 1 +23.4 +0.5 +22.9
  Jan 21, 2025 37   Ohio St. L 70-73 74%     15 - 5 7 - 2 +7.5 +7.0 +0.3
  Jan 24, 2025 30   Michigan W 91-64 71%     16 - 5 8 - 2 +38.5 +22.9 +15.0
  Jan 31, 2025 42   Indiana W 81-76 78%     17 - 5 9 - 2 +14.1 +15.2 -1.0
  Feb 04, 2025 63   @ Iowa W 90-81 70%     18 - 5 10 - 2 +20.9 +19.8 +1.2
  Feb 07, 2025 62   USC W 90-72 84%     19 - 5 11 - 2 +24.5 +14.2 +9.5
  Feb 11, 2025 30   @ Michigan L 73-75 51%     19 - 6 11 - 3 +15.0 +11.1 +3.9
  Feb 15, 2025 15   Wisconsin L 84-94 60%     19 - 7 11 - 4 +4.6 +22.7 -18.8
  Feb 18, 2025 8   @ Michigan St. L 66-75 31%     19 - 8 11 - 5 +13.2 +17.1 -5.3
  Feb 23, 2025 42   @ Indiana L 58-73 60%     19 - 9 11 - 6 -0.4 -1.7 +0.0
  Feb 28, 2025 24   UCLA W 76-66 67%     20 - 9 12 - 6 +22.8 +22.1 +2.2
  Mar 04, 2025 65   Rutgers W 100-71 86%     21 - 9 13 - 6 +34.9 +36.6 +0.7
  Mar 07, 2025 17   @ Illinois L 80-88 41%     21 - 10 13 - 7 +11.6 +12.4 -0.5
Projected Record 21 - 10 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 100.0 100.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 100.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 100.0% 100.0% 12.7% 87.3% 4.6 0.3 5.0 18.4 24.4 25.8 19.0 6.5 0.7 100.0%
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 12.7% 87.3% 4.6 0.3 5.0 18.4 24.4 25.8 19.0 6.5 0.7 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 12.7% 100.0% 2.8 1.9 30.2 55.6 11.7 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 12.4% 100.0% 3.5 0.2 7.0 43.7 37.5 10.7 0.8 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 24.8% 100.0% 4.3 0.1 1.2 17.2 40.2 31.8 8.7 0.9
Lose Out 20.2% 100.0% 5.7 1.6 11.9 28.5 36.1 19.0 2.9