Purdue
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+18.0#9
Expected Predictive Rating+17.9#12
Pace65.0#268
Improvement+4.6#23

Offense
Total Offense+10.7#9
First Shot+9.1#12
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#93
Layup/Dunks+0.2#175
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#87
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.0#42
Freethrows+2.4#52
Improvement-0.2#197

Defense
Total Defense+7.2#30
First Shot+6.5#24
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#115
Layups/Dunks+3.8#54
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#245
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#205
Freethrows+3.2#13
Improvement+4.9#9
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.4% 1.7% 0.4%
#1 Seed 12.4% 15.1% 6.0%
Top 2 Seed 38.6% 44.5% 24.7%
Top 4 Seed 81.9% 87.3% 69.4%
Top 6 Seed 96.9% 98.4% 93.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Average Seed 3.2 2.9 3.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 42.7% 49.6% 26.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Second Round92.3% 93.8% 88.6%
Sweet Sixteen58.1% 59.9% 53.8%
Elite Eight29.1% 30.9% 24.9%
Final Four14.1% 15.0% 11.9%
Championship Game6.3% 6.6% 5.5%
National Champion2.5% 2.8% 2.0%

Next Game: Iowa (Away) - 70.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 65 - 6
Quad 1b5 - 310 - 9
Quad 28 - 018 - 9
Quad 33 - 021 - 9
Quad 43 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 186   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 90-73 97%     1 - 0 +13.2 +11.8 +0.7
  Nov 08, 2024 244   Northern Kentucky W 72-50 98%     2 - 0 +14.6 +7.3 +10.1
  Nov 11, 2024 69   Yale W 92-84 88%     3 - 0 +13.4 +17.5 -4.4
  Nov 15, 2024 5   Alabama W 87-78 53%     4 - 0 +26.2 +22.8 +3.8
  Nov 19, 2024 21   @ Marquette L 58-76 49%     4 - 1 +0.2 -3.6 +3.3
  Nov 23, 2024 182   Marshall W 80-45 97%     5 - 1 +31.4 +9.2 +23.8
  Nov 28, 2024 91   North Carolina St. W 71-61 86%     6 - 1 +16.1 +14.6 +3.4
  Nov 29, 2024 26   Mississippi W 80-78 63%     7 - 1 +16.6 +24.4 -7.5
  Dec 05, 2024 50   @ Penn St. L 70-81 69%     7 - 2 0 - 1 +1.7 +1.0 +0.9
  Dec 08, 2024 16   Maryland W 83-78 64%     8 - 2 1 - 1 +19.2 +17.6 +1.6
  Dec 14, 2024 19   Texas A&M L 66-70 58%     8 - 3 +12.0 +6.2 +5.5
  Dec 21, 2024 1   Auburn L 69-87 31%     8 - 4 +5.2 +7.0 -2.4
  Dec 29, 2024 201   Toledo W 83-64 97%     9 - 4 +14.6 +6.8 +8.5
  Jan 02, 2025 92   @ Minnesota W 81-61 81%     10 - 4 2 - 1 +28.5 +28.5 +3.9
  Jan 05, 2025 56   Northwestern W 79-61 84%     11 - 4 3 - 1 +25.4 +15.5 +11.1
  Jan 09, 2025 63   @ Rutgers W 68-50 74%     12 - 4 4 - 1 +29.4 +7.7 +23.6
  Jan 12, 2025 48   Nebraska W 104-68 82%     13 - 4 5 - 1 +44.1 +35.5 +8.3
  Jan 15, 2025 89   @ Washington W 69-58 81%     14 - 4 6 - 1 +19.7 +7.7 +13.0
  Jan 18, 2025 45   @ Oregon W 65-58 65%     15 - 4 7 - 1 +21.1 -0.9 +22.0
  Jan 21, 2025 25   Ohio St. L 70-73 71%     15 - 5 7 - 2 +9.2 +8.9 +0.0
  Jan 24, 2025 18   Michigan W 91-64 66%     16 - 5 8 - 2 +40.6 +22.5 +17.6
  Jan 31, 2025 53   Indiana W 81-76 83%     17 - 5 9 - 2 +12.6 +13.4 -0.6
  Feb 04, 2025 60   @ Iowa W 83-77 70%    
  Feb 07, 2025 54   USC W 79-69 85%    
  Feb 11, 2025 18   @ Michigan L 74-75 45%    
  Feb 15, 2025 17   Wisconsin W 77-73 66%    
  Feb 18, 2025 15   @ Michigan St. L 72-73 42%    
  Feb 23, 2025 53   @ Indiana W 76-71 67%    
  Feb 28, 2025 29   UCLA W 72-66 73%    
  Mar 04, 2025 63   Rutgers W 80-68 86%    
  Mar 07, 2025 13   @ Illinois L 76-78 41%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.1 12.4 17.3 9.0 2.0 42.7 1st
2nd 1.0 9.5 13.1 3.6 0.2 27.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.8 8.0 1.5 0.0 13.4 3rd
4th 0.8 5.2 1.7 0.0 7.7 4th
5th 0.1 2.1 2.5 0.1 4.7 5th
6th 0.3 1.6 0.3 2.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 0.5 0.0 1.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.4 5.1 12.9 21.4 27.0 20.9 9.2 2.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 2.0    1.9 0.0
17-3 97.4% 9.0    7.9 1.1
16-4 82.4% 17.3    11.0 5.8 0.4
15-5 45.8% 12.4    3.3 6.0 2.6 0.6 0.0
14-6 9.9% 2.1    0.1 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1
13-7 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 42.7% 42.7 24.2 13.3 3.8 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 2.0% 100.0% 34.4% 65.6% 1.4 1.2 0.7 0.1 100.0%
17-3 9.2% 100.0% 29.3% 70.7% 1.7 4.0 4.3 0.9 0.1 100.0%
16-4 20.9% 100.0% 24.4% 75.6% 2.1 4.8 9.9 5.3 1.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 27.0% 100.0% 19.9% 80.1% 2.8 2.0 8.6 10.7 4.6 1.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 21.4% 100.0% 17.6% 82.4% 3.7 0.4 2.3 7.1 7.1 3.6 0.9 0.1 100.0%
13-7 12.9% 100.0% 13.1% 86.9% 4.6 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.5 3.9 2.4 0.7 0.1 100.0%
12-8 5.1% 99.8% 7.3% 92.5% 5.6 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 99.8%
11-9 1.4% 99.3% 5.2% 94.1% 6.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 99.2%
10-10 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-11 0.0% 0.0
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 19.7% 80.2% 3.2 12.4 26.2 26.3 17.1 9.7 5.2 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 1.2 77.6 20.9 1.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 100.0% 1.4 60.7 39.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5% 100.0% 1.4 60.0 40.0