Purdue
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.2#21
Expected Predictive Rating+15.6#26
Pace65.1#276
Improvement+0.0#181

Offense
Total Offense+9.8#9
First Shot+8.0#18
After Offensive Rebound+1.8#83
Layup/Dunks+1.5#128
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#134
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#61
Freethrows+2.1#71
Improvement-0.1#179

Defense
Total Defense+4.4#66
First Shot+3.1#84
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#75
Layups/Dunks+3.9#55
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#232
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#297
Freethrows+2.6#35
Improvement+0.1#173
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.4% 0.9% 0.2%
#1 Seed 2.9% 6.2% 2.0%
Top 2 Seed 9.3% 17.1% 7.2%
Top 4 Seed 32.2% 47.9% 28.0%
Top 6 Seed 58.4% 74.9% 53.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 89.5% 96.1% 87.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 88.5% 95.6% 86.6%
Average Seed 5.6 4.8 5.9
.500 or above 95.6% 98.8% 94.7%
.500 or above in Conference 82.4% 88.1% 80.8%
Conference Champion 10.9% 15.1% 9.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.1% 0.4%
First Four4.1% 2.2% 4.6%
First Round87.6% 95.3% 85.6%
Second Round63.2% 74.9% 60.0%
Sweet Sixteen31.3% 40.3% 28.9%
Elite Eight13.4% 18.3% 12.0%
Final Four5.4% 8.0% 4.8%
Championship Game2.2% 3.2% 1.9%
National Champion0.8% 1.3% 0.6%

Next Game: Auburn (Neutral) - 21.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 74 - 7
Quad 1b4 - 38 - 10
Quad 27 - 214 - 12
Quad 33 - 018 - 12
Quad 43 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 186   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 90-73 95%     1 - 0 +12.7 +11.5 +0.6
  Nov 08, 2024 210   Northern Kentucky W 72-50 96%     2 - 0 +16.5 +7.6 +11.7
  Nov 11, 2024 104   Yale W 92-84 88%     3 - 0 +9.4 +14.4 -5.2
  Nov 15, 2024 8   Alabama W 87-78 49%     4 - 0 +23.4 +21.1 +2.7
  Nov 19, 2024 17   @ Marquette L 58-76 35%     4 - 1 +0.1 -4.8 +4.4
  Nov 23, 2024 189   Marshall W 80-45 95%     5 - 1 +30.6 +9.4 +22.8
  Nov 28, 2024 80   North Carolina St. W 71-61 75%     6 - 1 +17.0 +14.6 +4.3
  Nov 29, 2024 27   Mississippi W 80-78 54%     7 - 1 +15.3 +21.6 -6.1
  Dec 05, 2024 30   @ Penn St. L 70-81 44%     7 - 2 0 - 1 +4.7 +3.3 +1.6
  Dec 08, 2024 19   Maryland W 83-78 58%     8 - 2 1 - 1 +17.1 +17.1 +0.0
  Dec 14, 2024 25   Texas A&M L 66-70 52%     8 - 3 +9.8 +5.6 +4.0
  Dec 21, 2024 1   Auburn L 74-82 21%    
  Dec 29, 2024 212   Toledo W 89-69 97%    
  Jan 02, 2025 114   @ Minnesota W 71-63 77%    
  Jan 05, 2025 61   Northwestern W 71-63 78%    
  Jan 09, 2025 65   @ Rutgers W 76-73 60%    
  Jan 12, 2025 53   Nebraska W 77-70 75%    
  Jan 15, 2025 84   @ Washington W 75-71 66%    
  Jan 18, 2025 23   @ Oregon L 72-75 40%    
  Jan 21, 2025 38   Ohio St. W 76-71 69%    
  Jan 24, 2025 20   Michigan W 76-73 61%    
  Jan 31, 2025 45   Indiana W 79-73 72%    
  Feb 04, 2025 44   @ Iowa W 80-79 51%    
  Feb 07, 2025 76   USC W 78-68 81%    
  Feb 11, 2025 20   @ Michigan L 73-76 39%    
  Feb 15, 2025 36   Wisconsin W 78-73 68%    
  Feb 18, 2025 15   @ Michigan St. L 70-74 36%    
  Feb 23, 2025 45   @ Indiana W 77-76 52%    
  Feb 28, 2025 14   UCLA W 69-67 57%    
  Mar 04, 2025 65   Rutgers W 79-70 78%    
  Mar 07, 2025 18   @ Illinois L 74-78 36%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.2 3.1 3.4 2.1 0.8 0.2 10.9 1st
2nd 0.0 1.2 4.0 4.1 1.4 0.2 0.0 11.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 4.2 4.4 1.3 0.1 10.7 3rd
4th 0.1 2.5 5.2 1.8 0.1 9.8 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 5.1 2.9 0.3 0.0 9.4 5th
6th 0.2 3.1 4.3 0.8 0.0 8.4 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 4.7 1.7 0.1 7.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.7 3.3 0.4 0.0 6.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 3.7 1.1 0.0 5.8 9th
10th 0.2 2.2 2.4 0.2 4.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.8 2.6 0.7 0.0 4.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.6 1.4 0.1 3.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.7 1.6 0.4 0.0 2.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.7 0.0 2.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.3 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.8 5.1 7.7 10.7 13.6 14.8 14.6 11.7 8.6 5.0 2.3 0.8 0.2 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
18-2 99.5% 0.8    0.7 0.0
17-3 91.0% 2.1    1.7 0.4 0.0 0.0
16-4 69.6% 3.4    1.9 1.2 0.3 0.0
15-5 35.6% 3.1    0.9 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 10.3% 1.2    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 10.9% 10.9 5.6 3.3 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.2% 100.0% 32.2% 67.8% 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.8% 100.0% 37.2% 62.8% 1.5 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.3% 100.0% 27.5% 72.5% 1.9 0.8 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 5.0% 100.0% 24.9% 75.1% 2.4 0.9 1.8 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 8.6% 100.0% 19.6% 80.4% 3.1 0.5 2.0 3.1 2.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 11.7% 100.0% 15.4% 84.6% 4.0 0.1 0.9 3.0 3.8 2.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-7 14.6% 100.0% 10.8% 89.2% 4.9 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.5 4.4 3.2 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-8 14.8% 99.7% 6.3% 93.4% 5.9 0.0 0.5 1.7 3.4 4.2 3.3 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 99.7%
11-9 13.6% 99.0% 4.2% 94.8% 6.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.1 3.8 2.8 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.1 99.0%
10-10 10.7% 94.7% 2.7% 92.0% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.3 2.3 1.6 0.6 0.0 0.6 94.5%
9-11 7.7% 77.0% 1.7% 75.3% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.6 2.1 0.1 1.8 76.6%
8-12 5.1% 34.5% 0.8% 33.8% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.3 34.0%
7-13 2.8% 7.1% 0.3% 6.8% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.6 6.8%
6-14 1.3% 0.5% 0.5% 11.7 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.5%
5-15 0.5% 0.5
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 89.5% 9.3% 80.3% 5.6 2.9 6.4 10.5 12.5 13.2 13.0 10.5 7.2 5.1 4.0 3.8 0.5 0.0 10.5 88.5%