Purdue
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+22.2#2
Expected Predictive Rating+26.2#3
Pace63.7#323
Improvement+0.7#123

Offense
Total Offense+14.7#1
First Shot+13.0#2
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#90
Layup/Dunks+2.9#85
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#72
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.3#16
Freethrows+0.4#159
Improvement+0.7#128

Defense
Total Defense+7.5#14
First Shot+7.4#18
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#188
Layups/Dunks+5.8#27
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#297
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#296
Freethrows+6.8#1
Improvement+0.1#176
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 14.5% 16.8% 9.6%
#1 Seed 48.8% 54.1% 37.6%
Top 2 Seed 78.7% 83.5% 68.6%
Top 4 Seed 96.0% 97.5% 92.7%
Top 6 Seed 99.2% 99.6% 98.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.9% 100.0% 99.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
Average Seed 1.9 1.7 2.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.3% 99.4% 99.0%
Conference Champion 32.0% 34.2% 27.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
Second Round97.4% 98.0% 96.2%
Sweet Sixteen76.5% 78.4% 72.3%
Elite Eight51.4% 54.0% 45.9%
Final Four31.2% 33.6% 25.9%
Championship Game17.8% 19.6% 14.1%
National Champion9.8% 11.1% 7.2%

Next Game: Iowa St. (Home) - 67.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a8 - 48 - 4
Quad 1b6 - 113 - 5
Quad 26 - 020 - 5
Quad 36 - 025 - 6
Quad 42 - 028 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 279 Evansville W 82-51 99%     1 - 0 +21.5 +17.7 +7.9
  Fri, Nov 7 141 Oakland W 87-77 98%     2 - 0 +8.5 +9.3 -0.8
  Thu, Nov 13 11 @Alabama W 87-80 51%     3 - 0 +28.8 +22.7 +6.3
  Sun, Nov 16 54 Akron W 97-79 92%     4 - 0 +24.6 +19.6 +4.4
  Thu, Nov 20 75 Memphis W 80-71 91%     5 - 0 +16.6 +14.9 +2.0
  Fri, Nov 21 30 Texas Tech W 86-56 79%     6 - 0 +43.7 +23.5 +21.9
  Fri, Nov 28 325 Eastern Illinois W 109-62 99.5%    7 - 0 +34.8 +29.7 +3.9
  Tue, Dec 2 120 @Rutgers W 81-65 92%     8 - 0 1 - 0 +22.1 +18.5 +4.9
  Sat, Dec 6 6 Iowa St. W 79-74 68%    
  Wed, Dec 10 95 Minnesota W 79-59 97%    
  Sat, Dec 13 83 Marquette W 84-66 95%    
  Sat, Dec 20 20 Auburn W 80-73 74%    
  Mon, Dec 29 122 Kent St. W 91-69 98%    
  Sat, Jan 3 36 @Wisconsin W 80-74 71%    
  Wed, Jan 7 57 Washington W 83-67 93%    
  Sat, Jan 10 96 Penn St. W 86-66 97%    
  Wed, Jan 14 27 Iowa W 76-65 85%    
  Sat, Jan 17 32 @USC W 81-75 70%    
  Tue, Jan 20 31 @UCLA W 74-68 69%    
  Sat, Jan 24 17 Illinois W 82-74 77%    
  Tue, Jan 27 24 @Indiana W 76-71 66%    
  Sun, Feb 1 86 @Maryland W 81-68 89%    
  Sat, Feb 7 80 Oregon W 83-65 95%    
  Tue, Feb 10 49 @Nebraska W 80-72 77%    
  Sat, Feb 14 27 @Iowa W 73-68 68%    
  Tue, Feb 17 1 Michigan L 76-77 48%    
  Fri, Feb 20 24 Indiana W 79-68 83%    
  Thu, Feb 26 10 Michigan St. W 74-68 71%    
  Sun, Mar 1 25 @Ohio St. W 78-73 66%    
  Wed, Mar 4 60 @Northwestern W 78-68 81%    
  Sat, Mar 7 36 Wisconsin W 83-71 86%    
Projected Record 26 - 5 16 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.5 7.5 10.4 8.4 2.9 32.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 5.6 10.5 9.5 3.8 0.3 31.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 3.8 6.1 3.8 0.7 0.0 15.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.2 3.9 1.8 0.3 0.0 8.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.5 1.3 0.2 5.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 1.5 1.1 0.2 3.2 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.2 2.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 10th
11th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.3 4.1 6.8 10.4 14.1 17.0 17.6 14.3 8.7 2.9 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 2.9    2.9
19-1 96.5% 8.4    6.8 1.6
18-2 72.9% 10.4    6.4 3.8 0.3
17-3 42.4% 7.5    3.0 3.5 0.9 0.1
16-4 14.5% 2.5    0.5 1.2 0.6 0.1
15-5 2.8% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 32.0% 32.0 19.7 10.1 1.9 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 2.9% 100.0% 43.0% 57.0% 1.1 2.7 0.2 100.0%
19-1 8.7% 100.0% 36.3% 63.7% 1.1 7.4 1.2 0.0 100.0%
18-2 14.3% 100.0% 32.6% 67.4% 1.2 11.3 2.9 0.1 100.0%
17-3 17.6% 100.0% 26.6% 73.4% 1.4 11.8 5.4 0.4 100.0%
16-4 17.0% 100.0% 22.2% 77.8% 1.6 8.9 6.8 1.2 0.1 100.0%
15-5 14.1% 100.0% 19.2% 80.8% 1.9 4.5 6.8 2.4 0.3 0.0 100.0%
14-6 10.4% 100.0% 13.0% 87.0% 2.4 1.7 4.2 3.3 1.0 0.1 100.0%
13-7 6.8% 100.0% 9.8% 90.2% 3.0 0.4 1.8 2.8 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-8 4.1% 100.0% 6.4% 93.6% 3.7 0.1 0.4 1.4 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
11-9 2.3% 100.0% 3.9% 96.1% 4.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-10 1.1% 100.0% 3.1% 96.9% 5.4 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
9-11 0.4% 98.4% 3.3% 95.1% 6.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.3%
8-12 0.2% 97.0% 97.0% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.0%
7-13 0.1% 81.8% 81.8% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 81.8%
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.9% 22.6% 77.3% 1.9 48.8 29.9 12.0 5.2 2.2 1.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 1.0 98.1 1.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5% 100.0% 1.1 91.9 8.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4% 100.0% 1.1 86.2 13.8