Big Ten
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
9 Purdue 100.0%   2   17 - 5 9 - 2 23 - 8 15 - 5 +18.0      +10.7 9 +7.2 30 65.0 268 +17.9 12 +18.9 3
13 Illinois 99.1%   5   15 - 7 7 - 5 20 - 11 12 - 8 +17.2      +8.8 16 +8.3 13 78.9 10 +14.4 35 +13.8 7
15 Michigan St. 99.7%   3   18 - 3 9 - 1 24 - 7 15 - 5 +16.9      +7.8 26 +9.1 7 70.0 131 +18.7 6 +22.8 1
16 Maryland 99.6%   4   17 - 5 7 - 4 23 - 8 13 - 7 +16.7      +8.4 20 +8.3 15 72.0 84 +15.5 23 +16.0 4
17 Wisconsin 99.7%   5   17 - 5 7 - 4 23 - 8 13 - 7 +16.6      +10.9 8 +5.6 46 68.5 175 +17.3 15 +16.0 5
18 Michigan 99.3%   4   16 - 5 8 - 2 22 - 9 14 - 6 +16.1      +8.7 17 +7.4 27 72.7 72 +15.7 21 +20.5 2
25 Ohio St. 86.7%   8   13 - 9 5 - 6 19 - 12 11 - 9 +14.6      +7.4 31 +7.3 28 67.7 198 +12.6 43 +11.8 9
29 UCLA 97.4%   6   16 - 6 7 - 4 21 - 10 12 - 8 +14.3      +6.3 42 +8.1 19 63.8 299 +15.0 31 +14.9 6
45 Oregon 91.0%   9   16 - 6 5 - 6 20 - 11 9 - 11 +11.6      +6.2 43 +5.3 51 69.5 144 +15.7 22 +11.3 10
48 Nebraska 54.6%   10   14 - 8 4 - 7 18 - 13 8 - 12 +10.6      +4.3 73 +6.3 39 70.0 132 +12.4 44 +10.3 12
50 Penn St. 12.7%   13 - 9 3 - 8 17 - 14 7 - 13 +10.2      +6.0 45 +4.2 68 74.2 45 +8.0 68 +6.4 17
53 Indiana 27.8%   14 - 8 5 - 6 17 - 14 8 - 12 +10.1      +5.6 55 +4.6 61 70.7 113 +11.7 49 +11.2 11
54 USC 29.9%   13 - 8 5 - 5 17 - 14 9 - 11 +10.0      +5.8 48 +4.1 70 69.7 138 +9.8 56 +12.2 8
56 Northwestern 12.8%   12 - 10 3 - 8 16 - 15 7 - 13 +9.8      +4.6 68 +5.2 52 62.9 321 +8.7 63 +8.1 15
60 Iowa 13.7%   12 - 8 4 - 6 17 - 14 8 - 12 +9.4      +8.6 18 +0.8 149 77.1 17 +9.3 57 +9.0 14
63 Rutgers 5.3%   11 - 11 4 - 7 14 - 17 7 - 13 +8.9      +4.7 64 +4.2 67 70.9 109 +8.0 69 +10.1 13
89 Washington 1.0%   10 - 10 2 - 8 13 - 17 5 - 15 +6.2      +1.8 124 +4.4 64 71.5 95 +7.1 79 +6.1 18
92 Minnesota 0.6%   11 - 11 3 - 8 14 - 17 6 - 14 +6.0      +2.8 97 +3.3 88 59.9 355 +5.8 86 +7.8 16





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th
Purdue 2.2 42.7 27.5 13.4 7.7 4.7 2.2 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
Illinois 5.4 2.4 7.0 12.0 15.0 15.8 17.0 15.5 8.4 4.3 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Michigan St. 2.3 45.7 22.1 13.2 7.6 5.2 3.3 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Maryland 4.1 8.4 16.0 19.0 18.0 15.1 10.9 6.8 3.4 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Wisconsin 4.1 8.6 15.1 19.3 19.5 14.3 10.8 6.9 3.4 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Michigan 3.1 26.4 21.0 16.9 12.4 9.7 6.5 4.2 1.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Ohio St. 7.7 0.1 1.1 2.8 5.7 8.6 12.0 16.9 18.2 13.4 8.5 5.2 3.3 2.0 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
UCLA 5.3 3.2 7.9 11.2 14.6 16.4 16.6 13.6 8.6 4.3 2.1 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0
Oregon 9.5 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.9 5.6 9.4 15.4 18.4 14.7 10.9 8.0 5.5 3.5 2.3 1.0 0.4 0.1
Nebraska 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.7 4.5 7.9 10.9 13.6 13.1 12.5 10.6 8.4 6.7 4.8 3.0 1.0
Penn St. 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.8 5.1 7.9 9.8 11.5 12.5 13.3 13.2 10.2 7.6 4.4
Indiana 11.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 2.3 4.4 8.3 11.8 13.9 14.2 13.3 10.3 8.6 6.0 3.7 1.4 0.2
USC 9.8 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 3.2 4.7 8.7 12.9 16.4 14.6 11.8 8.9 6.6 4.8 2.6 1.6 0.7 0.3
Northwestern 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.3 5.0 6.6 9.6 10.1 12.0 13.0 12.8 13.3 8.7 5.4
Iowa 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.0 2.2 4.1 7.8 9.8 11.2 12.4 11.9 11.8 10.6 9.2 5.2 2.0
Rutgers 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 3.3 6.1 8.2 10.8 13.5 13.1 13.4 12.5 9.5 5.7 2.0
Washington 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 3.0 3.9 5.8 7.1 9.9 13.9 22.7 30.4
Minnesota 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 2.7 4.2 6.0 8.2 11.4 15.4 25.3 23.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Purdue 15 - 5 0.0 0.2 1.4 5.1 12.9 21.4 27.0 20.9 9.2 2.0
Illinois 12 - 8 0.0 0.7 3.0 10.3 19.9 26.2 23.8 13.2 3.0
Michigan St. 15 - 5 0.0 0.4 2.3 6.4 12.8 20.6 23.2 18.7 11.2 3.7 0.7
Maryland 13 - 7 0.1 1.0 3.7 10.2 19.7 26.9 22.6 12.6 3.3
Wisconsin 13 - 7 0.1 0.8 3.6 9.9 19.4 28.1 23.0 12.4 2.8
Michigan 14 - 6 0.0 0.4 1.9 5.7 12.8 19.6 22.2 19.5 12.3 4.7 0.9
Ohio St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.5 2.3 6.9 15.2 22.8 24.4 17.6 8.2 2.1
UCLA 12 - 8 0.1 0.7 3.3 9.9 19.4 25.3 22.5 13.5 4.8 0.7
Oregon 9 - 11 0.3 2.2 7.7 17.0 24.6 24.3 15.8 6.4 1.6 0.2
Nebraska 8 - 12 0.5 3.2 9.8 17.9 24.0 21.4 14.9 6.5 1.7 0.3
Penn St. 7 - 13 0.5 2.7 9.7 19.3 25.3 21.9 13.4 5.7 1.4 0.1
Indiana 8 - 12 1.7 8.4 18.0 24.1 22.9 15.6 6.9 2.1 0.5 0.1
USC 9 - 11 0.6 3.1 9.9 18.8 24.1 21.9 13.2 6.1 2.1 0.3
Northwestern 7 - 13 0.7 3.8 11.9 20.8 24.9 20.5 11.8 4.6 1.0 0.2
Iowa 8 - 12 1.2 6.9 16.5 22.7 23.3 16.2 8.9 3.4 0.8 0.2
Rutgers 7 - 13 1.2 7.5 18.2 26.3 24.2 14.6 6.4 1.5 0.2 0.0
Washington 5 - 15 2.4 9.5 18.8 24.0 21.8 13.5 7.0 2.3 0.5 0.1
Minnesota 6 - 14 6.2 18.4 25.9 24.4 15.0 7.1 2.4 0.5 0.1




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Purdue 42.7% 24.2 13.3 3.8 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
Illinois 2.4% 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Michigan St. 45.7% 28.4 12.3 3.6 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
Maryland 8.4% 2.2 3.2 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.1
Wisconsin 8.6% 2.6 3.2 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
Michigan 26.4% 13.4 8.6 3.1 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Ohio St. 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
UCLA 3.2% 0.7 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Oregon 0.0% 0.0
Nebraska
Penn St.
Indiana
USC 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Northwestern
Iowa 0.0% 0.0
Rutgers
Washington
Minnesota


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Purdue 100.0% 19.7% 80.2% 2   12.4 26.2 26.3 17.1 9.7 5.2 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Illinois 99.1% 12.7% 86.5% 5   2.9 9.6 17.0 18.8 19.0 14.7 8.2 4.4 2.3 1.5 0.6 0.0 0.9 99.0%
Michigan St. 99.7% 16.0% 83.7% 3   5.6 17.1 21.7 19.4 14.0 9.6 6.6 3.3 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.3 99.6%
Maryland 99.6% 12.9% 86.8% 4   3.8 10.7 18.1 20.0 18.5 15.2 7.8 3.7 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.4 99.6%
Wisconsin 99.7% 12.3% 87.5% 5   2.6 8.3 15.6 16.9 18.6 16.4 11.4 6.1 2.8 1.1 0.1 0.3 99.7%
Michigan 99.3% 12.2% 87.1% 4   3.8 11.1 17.6 19.4 17.2 13.9 8.8 4.5 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.7 99.2%
Ohio St. 86.7% 4.5% 82.2% 8   0.2 0.8 2.6 5.0 9.0 13.7 14.8 14.2 10.6 8.8 6.6 0.4 13.3 86.1%
UCLA 97.4% 5.7% 91.7% 6   0.2 1.4 4.0 7.3 13.5 19.5 19.4 17.1 9.6 4.0 1.4 0.0 2.6 97.2%
Oregon 91.0% 1.1% 89.9% 9   0.0 0.3 1.1 3.9 8.9 16.9 20.4 19.6 12.9 6.7 0.2 9.1 90.8%
Nebraska 54.6% 0.7% 53.9% 10   0.1 0.2 0.7 2.0 5.4 10.0 12.1 12.0 11.5 0.7 45.4 54.3%
Penn St. 12.7% 0.3% 12.4% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 3.7 5.9 0.3 87.3 12.4%
Indiana 27.8% 0.7% 27.2% 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 3.3 6.0 7.6 8.6 0.6 72.2 27.3%
USC 29.9% 0.7% 29.3% 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 3.6 5.9 8.8 9.5 0.6 70.1 29.5%
Northwestern 12.8% 0.2% 12.6% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.8 3.3 5.7 0.6 87.2 12.6%
Iowa 13.7% 0.4% 13.4% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.0 3.9 5.7 0.5 86.3 13.4%
Rutgers 5.3% 0.2% 5.1% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.8 0.2 94.7 5.1%
Washington 1.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.1 99.0 0.9%
Minnesota 0.6% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 99.4 0.6%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Purdue 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 92.3% 58.1% 29.1% 14.1% 6.3% 2.5%
Illinois 99.1% 0.7% 98.8% 82.7% 46.8% 21.9% 10.1% 4.3% 1.8%
Michigan St. 99.7% 0.2% 99.6% 86.1% 49.8% 23.3% 10.2% 4.2% 1.7%
Maryland 99.6% 0.1% 99.6% 83.1% 46.8% 21.1% 8.8% 3.5% 1.2%
Wisconsin 99.7% 0.1% 99.7% 80.1% 43.1% 19.3% 8.1% 3.3% 1.2%
Michigan 99.3% 0.3% 99.2% 81.5% 43.9% 19.1% 7.9% 3.5% 1.2%
Ohio St. 86.7% 7.2% 83.8% 53.4% 20.8% 8.4% 3.3% 1.2% 0.3%
UCLA 97.4% 1.5% 96.8% 62.3% 24.0% 8.9% 3.2% 1.3% 0.5%
Oregon 91.0% 6.9% 87.3% 41.0% 10.5% 3.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
Nebraska 54.6% 12.3% 48.1% 20.4% 4.6% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Penn St. 12.7% 6.3% 9.6% 3.7% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana 27.8% 9.5% 22.9% 9.4% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
USC 29.9% 10.3% 24.2% 9.3% 1.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern 12.8% 6.6% 9.6% 3.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Iowa 13.7% 6.1% 10.6% 3.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Rutgers 5.3% 3.0% 3.8% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Washington 1.0% 0.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Minnesota 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 10.3 0.0 1.7 17.1 40.2 31.6 8.5 0.9 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 9.9 0.2 4.0 26.8 43.3 22.1 3.4 0.2 0.0
2nd Round 100.0% 7.1 0.0 0.2 1.6 7.0 20.4 31.7 25.9 10.9 2.2 0.1 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 99.7% 3.6 0.3 3.6 14.7 30.2 30.1 16.0 4.3 0.6 0.1 0.0
Elite Eight 87.4% 1.6 12.7 36.7 33.9 13.8 2.7 0.3 0.0
Final Four 54.6% 0.7 45.4 42.6 11.3 0.8 0.0
Final Game 26.5% 0.3 73.5 25.0 1.5
Champion 10.6% 0.1 89.4 10.6