Big Ten
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
1 Michigan 100.0%   1   17 - 1 7 - 1 +25.0      +12.1 4 +12.9 2 79.8 10 +25.7 6 +19.5 6
5 Purdue 100.0%   2   17 - 2 7 - 1 +21.2      +13.4 1 +7.8 20 64.2 304 +23.2 8 +22.1 4
9 Illinois 100.0%   3   16 - 3 7 - 1 +20.4      +12.7 3 +7.7 21 67.6 221 +20.5 13 +22.8 3
11 Michigan St. 100.0%   3   17 - 2 7 - 1 +20.0      +6.5 50 +13.5 1 66.5 250 +22.5 10 +22.9 2
14 Nebraska 100.0%   2   19 - 0 8 - 0 +18.1      +9.2 21 +9.0 13 68.5 197 +31.0 2 +31.5 1
23 Iowa 92.8%   7   14 - 5 4 - 4 +16.5      +8.1 35 +8.4 17 62.0 347 +15.1 30 +13.4 9
30 Ohio St. 78.3%   9   13 - 5 5 - 3 +14.3      +9.5 20 +4.8 55 67.9 217 +13.0 42 +14.5 8
35 Wisconsin 84.4%   8   14 - 5 6 - 2 +13.7      +8.7 29 +5.0 51 73.9 60 +15.3 28 +21.2 5
36 UCLA 72.9%   9   13 - 6 5 - 3 +13.5      +7.8 39 +5.7 45 63.5 321 +13.2 40 +16.2 7
37 Indiana 39.9%   12 - 7 3 - 5 +13.4      +8.4 31 +5.0 52 69.2 172 +10.4 58 +9.1 12
47 Washington 19.9%   10 - 9 2 - 6 +11.0      +6.5 52 +4.5 61 68.8 183 +8.8 67 +10.3 11
48 USC 46.4%   11   13 - 5 3 - 5 +10.9      +4.6 74 +6.3 39 74.3 52 +13.6 37 +8.9 13
60 Northwestern 1.9%   9 - 10 1 - 7 +9.0      +6.1 53 +2.9 96 64.9 286 +5.7 92 +1.4 16
68 Oregon 0.6%   8 - 11 1 - 7 +8.1      +4.7 72 +3.4 84 66.7 241 +4.4 100 +1.5 15
71 Minnesota 3.9%   10 - 9 3 - 5 +8.0      +3.8 86 +4.2 70 60.2 361 +6.4 83 +11.3 10
100 Maryland 0.0%   8 - 11 1 - 7 +5.1      +2.0 116 +3.0 92 69.9 157 +4.0 104 -0.2 17
115 Rutgers 0.0%   9 - 10 2 - 6 +3.2      +1.3 134 +2.0 111 66.4 252 +4.2 101 +7.9 14
116 Penn St. 0.0%   9 - 10 0 - 8 +3.2      +3.9 83 -0.8 195 68.7 188 +2.3 127 -1.6 18


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Tue, Jan 20 5 Purdue 67 36 UCLA 69   
Tue, Jan 20 71 Minnesota 74 30 Ohio St. 82   
Tue, Jan 20 23 Iowa 68 115 Rutgers 62   
Tue, Jan 20 11 Michigan St. 68 68 Oregon 52   
Tue, Jan 20 37 Indiana 72 1 Michigan 86   
Wed, Jan 21 48 USC 68 60 Northwestern 74   
Wed, Jan 21 14 Nebraska 76 47 Washington 66   
Wed, Jan 21 9 Illinois 89 100 Maryland 70   
Thu, Jan 22 116 Penn St. 71 35 Wisconsin 98   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Fri, Jan 23 1 Michigan 88 30 Ohio St. 74 89%   
Fri, Jan 23 37 Indiana 78 115 Rutgers 71 75%   
Sat, Jan 24 9 Illinois 74 5 Purdue 78 64%   
Sat, Jan 24 60 Northwestern 68 36 UCLA 75 76%   
Sat, Jan 24 71 Minnesota 65 14 Nebraska 72 75%   
Sat, Jan 24 100 Maryland 60 11 Michigan St. 78 94%   
Sun, Jan 25 48 USC 78 35 Wisconsin 84 71%   
Sun, Jan 25 68 Oregon 71 47 Washington 77 71%   
Mon, Jan 26 30 Ohio St. 85 116 Penn St. 71 90%   
Tue, Jan 27 1 Michigan 84 14 Nebraska 74 82%   
Tue, Jan 27 37 Indiana 74 5 Purdue 78 68%   
Tue, Jan 27 11 Michigan St. 75 115 Rutgers 61 90%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th
Michigan 2.2 45.0 23.3 14.7 9.0 5.6 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
Purdue 3.0 24.5 20.7 18.9 16.1 11.9 4.9 1.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Illinois 3.1 20.4 19.9 19.7 17.5 13.8 5.4 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
Michigan St. 3.3 16.6 18.7 20.0 19.2 15.4 6.4 2.5 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Nebraska 2.6 31.8 24.1 18.4 13.3 8.0 2.9 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Iowa 7.4 0.2 0.8 2.1 4.1 9.4 18.3 19.9 18.1 12.9 7.0 4.0 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Ohio St. 7.7 0.1 0.4 1.2 3.1 7.0 15.8 18.4 18.8 17.0 10.0 5.0 2.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
Wisconsin 6.7 0.5 1.8 3.7 7.4 13.1 23.4 18.4 13.7 9.1 5.1 2.4 1.0 0.3 0.1
UCLA 7.3 0.2 0.7 2.0 4.3 9.1 18.1 21.7 17.8 11.8 7.3 4.0 2.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Indiana 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 3.4 6.8 10.2 14.9 19.0 17.3 12.8 8.0 3.8 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
Washington 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.3 4.8 8.1 12.3 17.1 17.7 14.7 11.1 5.9 3.1 1.6 0.6 0.1
USC 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.4 4.9 7.2 10.7 15.7 17.3 17.2 12.9 6.3 2.9 1.3 0.4 0.0
Northwestern 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.8 4.1 7.8 13.5 21.1 20.0 17.1 9.8 3.7
Oregon 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.6 5.0 8.3 12.9 18.3 18.9 17.9 10.1 4.2
Minnesota 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.0 4.1 6.8 12.4 16.9 19.3 18.1 10.3 5.5 2.6 0.9 0.2
Maryland 15.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.3 2.8 5.9 11.6 16.0 20.1 27.8 14.0
Rutgers 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.9 4.0 7.0 12.1 19.3 20.5 16.7 11.8 5.8
Penn St. 16.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 2.1 4.9 8.3 13.5 23.7 46.2

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Michigan 16 - 4 27 - 4 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.7 7.6 15.4 23.7 26.1 17.9 5.6
Purdue 15 - 5 25 - 6 0.1 0.3 1.2 3.4 7.7 15.4 21.4 22.3 17.6 8.7 2.1
Illinois 15 - 5 24 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 3.6 8.9 16.7 23.1 23.1 15.7 6.3 1.3
Michigan St. 15 - 5 25 - 6 0.0 0.2 1.1 4.2 10.3 18.9 24.0 22.3 13.2 4.9 0.8
Nebraska 16 - 4 27 - 4 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.7 5.6 11.7 19.8 23.6 20.3 12.3 3.8 0.6
Iowa 11 - 9 21 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 4.2 9.2 15.9 21.2 20.6 15.3 8.4 2.8 0.5
Ohio St. 11 - 9 19 - 12 0.0 0.3 1.6 5.2 11.8 19.8 22.5 19.2 12.3 5.4 1.7 0.3 0.0
Wisconsin 12 - 8 20 - 11 0.0 0.4 1.9 5.8 11.6 18.6 22.1 18.6 12.3 6.0 2.2 0.4 0.0
UCLA 11 - 9 19 - 12 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.8 9.4 16.2 20.5 21.6 15.3 8.4 3.0 0.5 0.0
Indiana 9 - 11 18 - 13 0.0 0.4 2.0 6.1 12.5 19.4 22.0 19.0 11.2 5.3 1.7 0.4 0.0
Washington 8 - 12 16 - 15 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.0 9.4 15.4 20.4 20.1 15.9 8.8 3.5 0.9 0.1
USC 8 - 12 18 - 12 0.1 1.3 4.4 10.2 17.3 21.4 19.5 13.8 7.5 3.4 1.0 0.2 0.0
Northwestern 5 - 15 13 - 18 0.4 2.6 9.6 18.8 24.7 21.4 13.6 6.2 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
Oregon 5 - 15 12 - 19 0.6 3.6 10.5 18.2 22.7 19.6 13.6 7.4 2.7 0.8 0.1 0.0
Minnesota 8 - 12 15 - 16 0.4 2.3 7.8 16.1 21.8 21.4 16.2 8.9 3.8 1.2 0.2 0.1
Maryland 4 - 16 11 - 20 3.3 13.1 22.4 24.3 19.1 10.9 4.8 1.8 0.4 0.1
Rutgers 5 - 15 12 - 19 3.2 11.5 20.6 23.8 20.4 12.0 5.9 2.1 0.5 0.2 0.0
Penn St. 3 - 17 12 - 19 4.4 14.3 23.6 24.9 17.8 9.4 3.9 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Michigan 45.0% 25.9 13.3 4.6 1.0 0.1 0.0
Purdue 24.5% 11.9 8.3 3.4 0.9 0.1 0.0
Illinois 20.4% 9.0 7.3 3.2 0.9 0.1 0.0
Michigan St. 16.6% 6.9 6.0 2.8 0.8 0.1 0.0
Nebraska 31.8% 15.7 11.0 3.9 1.0 0.1 0.0
Iowa 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Ohio St. 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Wisconsin 0.5% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
UCLA 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Indiana
Washington
USC
Northwestern
Oregon
Minnesota
Maryland
Rutgers
Penn St.


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Michigan 100.0% 40.1% 59.9% 1   67.3 26.4 5.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Purdue 100.0% 17.1% 82.9% 2   30.5 34.5 21.6 9.4 3.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Illinois 100.0% 13.9% 86.0% 3   13.1 23.4 26.8 21.0 10.2 4.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Michigan St. 100.0% 13.1% 86.9% 3   13.7 23.4 28.2 20.9 9.5 3.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Nebraska 100.0% 8.5% 91.5% 2   16.6 32.0 30.0 15.2 4.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
Iowa 92.8% 2.9% 89.9% 7   0.2 0.8 2.6 6.4 12.2 17.4 18.6 14.2 9.9 6.4 3.9 0.1 7.2 92.6%
Ohio St. 78.3% 1.1% 77.2% 9   0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 4.1 8.6 14.1 16.2 14.3 10.8 8.5 0.2 21.7 78.1%
Wisconsin 84.4% 1.2% 83.2% 8   0.0 0.1 0.5 2.1 6.1 11.3 16.9 17.5 14.2 9.5 6.1 0.1 15.6 84.2%
UCLA 72.9% 1.0% 71.9% 9   0.0 0.1 0.7 2.4 5.5 11.5 15.7 15.4 12.5 8.9 0.2 27.1 72.7%
Indiana 39.9% 0.6% 39.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.8 6.4 7.9 8.9 10.1 0.2 60.1 39.5%
Washington 19.9% 0.1% 19.8% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 2.4 3.7 5.4 7.1 0.2 80.1 19.8%
USC 46.4% 0.2% 46.2% 11   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 4.0 7.7 9.5 11.3 11.3 0.3 53.7 46.3%
Northwestern 1.9% 0.0% 1.8% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.1 0.1 98.2 1.8%
Oregon 0.6% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 99.4 0.6%
Minnesota 3.9% 0.0% 3.9% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.8 0.1 96.1 3.9%
Maryland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Rutgers 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Penn St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 9.4 0.1 1.6 13.9 38.5 34.5 10.7 0.7 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 9.1 0.2 3.4 21.3 42.1 27.2 5.7 0.2 0.0
2nd Round 100.0% 7.1 0.0 0.5 5.4 21.2 36.7 26.5 8.5 1.1 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 100.0% 4.1 0.0 0.7 6.0 20.6 35.3 27.5 8.6 1.2 0.1 0.0
Elite Eight 97.2% 2.3 2.8 18.4 37.5 30.4 9.7 1.1 0.1
Final Four 82.1% 1.2 17.9 46.1 30.1 5.8 0.2
Final Game 59.1% 0.7 41.0 49.8 9.3
Champion 37.5% 0.4 62.5 37.5

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Michigan 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 99.7% 85.0% 63.6% 44.8% 30.4% 20.1%
Purdue 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 98.0% 72.2% 43.6% 23.5% 12.5% 6.3%
Illinois 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 95.3% 65.0% 35.4% 18.1% 9.1% 4.2%
Michigan St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 95.6% 63.7% 33.9% 17.2% 8.2% 4.0%
Nebraska 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 95.3% 58.9% 27.7% 12.0% 5.1% 1.9%
Iowa 92.8% 4.2% 91.3% 63.4% 25.3% 10.3% 4.1% 1.6% 0.6%
Ohio St. 78.3% 9.2% 74.3% 42.3% 12.5% 4.8% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2%
Wisconsin 84.4% 6.7% 81.2% 44.9% 12.4% 4.1% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%
UCLA 72.9% 9.9% 68.2% 36.0% 9.0% 3.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
Indiana 39.9% 10.8% 35.3% 18.2% 5.0% 1.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
Washington 19.9% 7.8% 16.0% 6.8% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
USC 46.4% 12.3% 40.0% 16.8% 3.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Northwestern 1.9% 1.1% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oregon 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Minnesota 3.9% 1.9% 2.9% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Maryland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rutgers 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Penn St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%