Big Ten
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
8 Michigan St. 100.0%   2   26 - 5 17 - 3 26 - 5 17 - 3 +19.5      +7.9 26 +11.6 3 69.1 142 +20.4 7 +22.7 1
11 Maryland 100.0%   3   24 - 7 14 - 6 24 - 7 14 - 6 +18.3      +7.5 33 +10.7 7 73.5 54 +16.9 16 +17.4 3
15 Wisconsin 100.0%   4   23 - 8 13 - 7 23 - 8 13 - 7 +17.4      +10.7 12 +6.6 35 68.5 166 +16.8 17 +16.1 4
16 Purdue 100.0%   4   21 - 10 13 - 7 21 - 10 13 - 7 +17.3      +12.2 7 +5.0 57 64.5 281 +16.1 22 +15.8 6
17 Illinois 100.0%   5   20 - 11 12 - 8 20 - 11 12 - 8 +16.9      +10.3 15 +6.6 40 77.0 17 +15.5 27 +15.3 7
24 UCLA 100.0%   5   22 - 9 13 - 7 22 - 9 13 - 7 +15.6      +7.1 38 +8.5 14 63.5 302 +15.9 23 +15.9 5
30 Michigan 100.0%   5   22 - 9 14 - 6 22 - 9 14 - 6 +14.2      +6.2 48 +8.0 20 72.5 62 +16.2 21 +18.3 2
34 Oregon 100.0%   6   23 - 8 12 - 8 24 - 8 12 - 8 +13.6      +7.0 39 +6.6 41 68.6 161 +17.1 13 +14.6 8
37 Ohio St. 72.6%   11   17 - 14 9 - 11 18 - 14 9 - 11 +13.3      +7.8 30 +5.5 46 67.9 187 +11.9 48 +11.4 10
42 Indiana 64.5%   11   19 - 12 10 - 10 19 - 13 10 - 10 +11.9      +5.3 60 +6.6 39 69.4 134 +12.8 43 +12.7 9
51 Northwestern 3.5%   16 - 15 7 - 13 17 - 15 7 - 13 +10.9      +5.2 62 +5.7 44 63.2 311 +9.2 62 +9.1 13
57 Nebraska 9.0%   17 - 14 7 - 13 17 - 14 7 - 13 +10.0      +4.5 68 +5.5 47 68.6 162 +10.4 55 +8.8 15
58 Penn St. 0.0%   16 - 15 6 - 14 16 - 15 6 - 14 +10.0      +5.6 57 +4.4 68 73.6 52 +7.7 76 +6.7 17
62 USC 0.4%   15 - 16 7 - 13 16 - 16 7 - 13 +9.3      +7.1 37 +2.2 107 70.0 122 +7.9 74 +8.6 16
63 Iowa 0.0%   15 - 15 7 - 13 16 - 16 7 - 13 +9.2      +8.9 18 +0.3 170 73.4 57 +9.2 63 +8.9 14
65 Rutgers 0.4%   15 - 16 8 - 12 15 - 17 8 - 12 +8.6      +6.2 49 +2.5 99 70.6 110 +8.9 66 +10.6 11
86 Minnesota 0.1%   15 - 16 7 - 13 15 - 17 7 - 13 +6.6      +2.6 103 +4.0 72 59.4 357 +8.0 73 +9.6 12
104 Washington 0.0%   12 - 18 4 - 16 12 - 18 4 - 16 +3.9      +2.2 111 +1.7 119 69.0 144 +5.9 88 +4.7 18





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th
Michigan St. 1.0 100.0
Maryland 2.0 100.0
Wisconsin 4.0 100.0
Purdue 4.0 100.0
Illinois 7.0 100.0
UCLA 4.0 100.0
Michigan 2.0 100.0
Oregon 7.0 100.0
Ohio St. 10.0 100.0
Indiana 9.0 100.0
Northwestern 12.0 100.0
Nebraska 12.0 100.0
Penn St. 17.0 100.0
USC 12.0 100.0
Iowa 12.0 100.0
Rutgers 11.0 100.0
Minnesota 12.0 100.0
Washington 18.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Michigan St. 17 - 3 100.0
Maryland 14 - 6 100.0
Wisconsin 13 - 7 100.0
Purdue 13 - 7 100.0
Illinois 12 - 8 100.0
UCLA 13 - 7 100.0
Michigan 14 - 6 100.0
Oregon 12 - 8 100.0
Ohio St. 9 - 11 100.0
Indiana 10 - 10 100.0
Northwestern 7 - 13 100.0
Nebraska 7 - 13 100.0
Penn St. 6 - 14 100.0
USC 7 - 13 100.0
Iowa 7 - 13 100.0
Rutgers 8 - 12 100.0
Minnesota 7 - 13 100.0
Washington 4 - 16 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Michigan St. 100.0% 100.0
Maryland
Wisconsin
Purdue
Illinois
UCLA
Michigan
Oregon
Ohio St.
Indiana
Northwestern
Nebraska
Penn St.
USC
Iowa
Rutgers
Minnesota
Washington


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Michigan St. 100.0% 28.8% 71.2% 2   18.5 64.5 16.3 0.7 100.0%
Maryland 100.0% 19.3% 80.7% 3   1.3 12.5 36.2 31.9 13.8 3.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Wisconsin 100.0% 11.2% 88.8% 4   0.3 3.6 17.2 24.0 24.3 18.3 10.8 1.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
Purdue 100.0% 12.7% 87.3% 4   0.3 5.0 18.4 24.4 25.8 19.0 6.5 0.7 100.0%
Illinois 100.0% 7.4% 92.5% 5   0.0 2.1 11.0 17.9 30.9 26.8 10.4 0.9 0.0 0.1 99.9%
UCLA 100.0% 8.9% 91.1% 5   0.0 0.5 7.1 13.2 26.7 30.7 19.2 2.6 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Michigan 100.0% 6.3% 93.7% 5   0.4 6.8 13.8 27.6 31.8 17.8 1.9 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Oregon 100.0% 2.4% 97.6% 6   0.1 3.2 9.9 27.2 37.6 19.6 2.5 0.1 100.0%
Ohio St. 72.6% 1.5% 71.1% 11   0.0 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.7 2.8 6.9 19.7 38.6 3.0 27.4 72.2%
Indiana 64.5% 0.9% 63.7% 11   0.0 0.2 0.5 2.6 10.2 24.3 25.9 0.7 35.5 64.2%
Northwestern 3.5% 0.4% 3.2% 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.3 0.9 96.5 3.2%
Nebraska 9.0% 0.0% 9.0% 0.0 5.8 3.1 91.1 9.0%
Penn St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
USC 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 99.6 0.2%
Iowa 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Rutgers 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 99.6 0.3%
Minnesota 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.1%
Washington 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Michigan St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 97.4% 67.1% 39.6% 17.5% 7.8% 2.9%
Maryland 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 92.6% 58.6% 24.9% 10.8% 4.1% 1.5%
Wisconsin 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 83.9% 46.5% 17.8% 7.4% 2.8% 0.8%
Purdue 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 84.5% 47.2% 18.1% 7.1% 2.5% 0.8%
Illinois 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 80.6% 43.0% 15.8% 5.7% 1.8% 0.6%
UCLA 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 73.0% 33.5% 11.3% 3.8% 1.1% 0.3%
Michigan 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 68.7% 27.3% 8.0% 2.0% 0.5% 0.2%
Oregon 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 65.5% 25.0% 6.4% 1.8% 0.4% 0.2%
Ohio St. 72.6% 38.4% 55.5% 23.7% 6.7% 2.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Indiana 64.5% 21.8% 53.5% 19.9% 4.6% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Northwestern 3.5% 3.0% 1.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nebraska 9.0% 8.9% 4.2% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Penn St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
USC 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Iowa 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rutgers 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Minnesota 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Washington 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 9.5 0.0 7.2 40.5 47.1 5.1 0.1
1st Round 100.0% 9.2 0.0 17.4 51.4 29.7 1.6
2nd Round 100.0% 6.9 0.1 0.2 1.9 8.7 22.7 34.8 25.3 5.7 0.6
Sweet Sixteen 99.8% 3.6 0.2 3.1 14.0 29.8 30.9 16.9 4.6 0.6 0.0
Elite Eight 84.5% 1.5 15.5 39.0 32.3 11.0 2.0 0.2
Final Four 47.8% 0.6 52.2 39.4 8.0 0.5 0.0
Final Game 20.4% 0.2 79.6 19.6 0.8
Champion 7.2% 0.1 92.8 7.2