Big Ten
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
2 Purdue 98.5%   1   0 - 0 0 - 0 25 - 5 16 - 4 +23.1      +14.6 1 +8.5 11 63.7 306 0.0 121 0.0 1
5 Michigan 95.5%   2   1 - 0 0 - 0 23 - 7 14 - 6 +20.1      +10.8 9 +9.2 7 73.7 60 +7.0 44 0.0 1
10 Illinois 91.7%   3   1 - 0 0 - 0 23 - 8 14 - 6 +18.5      +11.0 7 +7.5 18 76.6 20 +4.5 74 0.0 1
20 UCLA 76.2%   5   1 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 10 11 - 9 +15.3      +8.0 28 +7.3 19 63.5 312 +7.4 38 0.0 1
21 Wisconsin 72.7%   5   1 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 11 11 - 9 +14.9      +8.6 22 +6.3 33 68.7 176 +6.3 49 0.0 1
24 Michigan St. 72.9%   5   1 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 11 11 - 9 +14.7      +6.5 43 +8.1 13 68.2 196 +7.6 34 0.0 1
26 Ohio St. 66.6%   7   1 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 11 11 - 9 +14.2      +9.7 15 +4.5 56 78.4 12 -4.2 312 0.0 1
27 USC 67.5%   6   1 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 10 11 - 9 +14.1      +7.7 29 +6.5 30 71.0 109 +4.2 79 0.0 1
28 Oregon 66.0%   6   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 11 11 - 9 +14.1      +7.1 36 +7.0 23 69.3 158 0.0 121 0.0 1
33 Indiana 55.5%   9   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 13 10 - 10 +13.0      +7.1 35 +5.9 38 69.5 150 0.0 121 0.0 1
34 Iowa 55.8%   9   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 10 - 10 +13.0      +8.7 19 +4.3 60 72.8 72 0.0 121 0.0 1
46 Maryland 44.4%   1 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 9 - 11 +11.6      +5.0 54 +6.6 27 72.6 75 -2.5 298 0.0 1
50 Washington 36.7%   1 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 13 9 - 11 +11.0      +6.8 40 +4.2 65 68.8 172 -11.7 343 0.0 1
51 Nebraska 37.6%   1 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 13 8 - 12 +10.7      +5.8 47 +4.9 49 68.6 180 -0.6 278 0.0 1
61 Northwestern 24.2%   1 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 16 7 - 13 +8.7      +3.4 86 +5.3 44 63.6 310 -4.7 317 0.0 1
72 Minnesota 17.3%   1 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 15 7 - 13 +7.6      +3.8 76 +3.8 72 60.2 355 +1.2 109 0.0 1
86 Rutgers 11.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 16 6 - 14 +6.0      +2.5 101 +3.5 78 70.6 123 0.0 121 0.0 1
99 Penn St. 7.0%   1 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 18 5 - 15 +4.8      +2.0 108 +2.8 94 73.9 58 +2.5 94 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th
Purdue 2.6 46.9 18.8 10.9 7.1 4.7 3.2 2.4 1.9 1.3 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Michigan 3.9 23.6 20.5 14.5 10.3 7.8 5.9 4.6 3.4 2.6 1.9 1.6 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
Illinois 4.6 17.1 17.4 14.3 11.6 9.2 7.1 5.3 4.7 3.5 2.5 2.4 1.6 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1
UCLA 7.1 6.0 8.3 9.4 9.3 9.0 8.3 7.7 7.0 6.3 5.9 5.3 4.5 4.0 3.1 2.4 1.8 1.1 0.6
Wisconsin 7.6 4.9 6.3 7.9 8.5 8.7 8.6 8.2 7.9 6.9 6.4 6.0 5.0 4.2 3.6 2.9 2.0 1.4 0.6
Michigan St. 7.6 4.8 7.3 8.0 8.5 8.7 8.4 7.8 7.2 7.1 6.5 5.6 4.9 4.4 3.4 2.9 2.3 1.5 0.7
Ohio St. 8.0 4.3 5.9 6.9 7.6 8.1 8.1 7.7 8.0 7.4 6.7 6.4 5.4 4.7 4.1 3.6 2.3 1.8 1.0
USC 8.1 3.8 6.0 7.2 7.4 7.8 8.2 8.0 7.5 7.2 6.8 6.2 5.7 4.8 4.1 3.7 2.7 1.9 1.1
Oregon 8.1 4.4 6.1 7.4 7.8 7.6 7.7 7.6 7.1 6.9 6.4 6.2 5.4 5.3 4.5 3.4 2.9 2.1 1.3
Indiana 9.1 2.4 3.9 5.0 6.0 7.0 7.0 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.1 7.1 6.8 6.1 5.4 5.1 3.8 3.0 1.7
Iowa 9.2 2.7 4.2 5.3 5.9 6.7 6.5 7.0 7.1 7.0 7.3 6.9 6.6 6.0 5.8 5.2 4.4 3.2 2.1
Maryland 10.1 1.6 2.9 3.9 4.6 5.3 5.9 6.4 6.7 7.1 7.3 7.3 7.5 7.1 6.9 6.4 5.7 4.5 2.9
Washington 10.7 0.9 2.1 2.9 3.6 4.8 5.5 5.7 6.2 6.6 7.1 7.9 7.8 7.9 7.5 7.4 6.9 5.6 3.6
Nebraska 10.9 0.9 2.0 2.9 3.7 4.7 5.0 5.4 6.0 6.8 7.2 7.6 7.9 7.8 7.7 7.5 7.0 6.2 3.8
Northwestern 12.4 0.4 0.9 1.4 2.0 2.6 3.2 3.9 4.8 5.5 6.0 7.0 7.5 8.6 9.0 10.0 10.0 9.8 7.3
Minnesota 13.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.4 2.2 2.6 3.2 3.8 4.8 5.6 6.6 7.6 8.2 9.5 10.4 11.4 11.5 9.7
Rutgers 13.9 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.9 2.2 2.9 3.5 4.5 5.4 5.8 7.8 9.3 10.7 12.3 14.1 16.0
Penn St. 15.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.6 2.3 2.8 3.7 4.7 6.1 7.8 10.7 13.1 18.4 25.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Purdue 16 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.9 3.2 4.8 6.5 9.3 11.7 13.6 15.0 14.4 11.6 5.6
Michigan 14 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.7 2.9 4.1 6.2 8.1 10.5 12.6 13.4 13.5 11.5 8.3 4.2 1.3
Illinois 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.5 2.5 3.8 5.6 7.8 9.7 11.6 12.9 13.3 11.4 8.9 5.8 2.9 0.7
UCLA 11 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 1.2 2.1 3.3 5.2 7.0 8.6 10.0 10.9 11.3 10.8 9.7 7.5 5.6 3.5 1.6 0.7 0.2
Wisconsin 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.5 4.1 6.0 7.7 9.6 10.8 11.5 11.8 10.4 8.8 6.2 4.3 2.5 1.0 0.5 0.1
Michigan St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.7 4.0 5.5 7.9 9.6 10.5 11.3 10.9 10.4 8.8 6.5 4.6 2.8 1.4 0.4 0.1
Ohio St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.9 3.2 4.6 6.6 8.7 9.7 11.2 11.4 10.6 9.9 7.6 5.6 3.8 2.4 1.1 0.3 0.1
USC 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.3 4.8 6.7 8.7 9.7 11.2 11.3 10.8 9.2 7.7 5.8 3.9 2.0 1.1 0.4 0.1
Oregon 11 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.3 3.3 5.0 6.7 8.6 9.5 10.2 11.0 10.3 9.4 7.6 6.0 3.7 2.5 1.2 0.5 0.1
Indiana 10 - 10 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.1 4.5 6.6 8.3 10.2 10.9 11.3 10.7 9.6 8.0 5.8 3.9 2.5 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
Iowa 10 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.8 3.3 5.1 6.9 8.4 9.7 10.9 10.6 10.0 9.0 7.8 6.0 4.0 2.6 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1
Maryland 9 - 11 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.8 4.6 6.4 8.3 10.2 10.9 10.9 10.5 9.7 7.8 6.0 4.5 3.0 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Washington 9 - 11 0.1 0.7 1.7 3.6 5.2 7.4 9.9 10.8 11.7 11.0 9.7 8.8 7.1 5.3 3.2 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Nebraska 8 - 12 0.2 0.8 2.0 3.6 5.7 8.0 9.5 10.8 11.5 11.3 9.8 8.3 6.6 5.0 3.5 1.9 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northwestern 7 - 13 0.4 1.4 3.5 6.4 8.9 10.6 12.0 11.9 11.1 9.5 8.1 6.0 4.1 2.7 1.8 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Minnesota 7 - 13 0.6 2.2 4.6 7.8 10.1 11.6 12.5 12.2 10.5 9.0 6.9 4.8 3.1 2.1 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Rutgers 6 - 14 1.2 4.3 7.6 9.6 11.9 12.5 12.7 11.1 8.8 7.1 5.1 3.3 2.3 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Penn St. 5 - 15 2.5 6.8 11.1 13.8 14.5 13.3 11.4 8.6 6.6 4.7 3.0 1.8 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Purdue 46.9% 34.9 9.6 2.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
Michigan 23.6% 15.0 6.6 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Illinois 17.1% 10.2 5.1 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
UCLA 6.0% 3.2 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Wisconsin 4.9% 2.5 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Michigan St. 4.8% 2.4 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Ohio St. 4.3% 2.2 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
USC 3.8% 1.9 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Oregon 4.4% 2.3 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Indiana 2.4% 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Iowa 2.7% 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Maryland 1.6% 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Washington 0.9% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Nebraska 0.9% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northwestern 0.4% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Rutgers 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Penn St. 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Purdue 98.5% 32.7% 65.7% 1   46.3 23.2 11.1 6.8 4.2 2.8 1.5 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.5 97.7%
Michigan 95.5% 18.2% 77.2% 2   25.4 21.6 14.8 10.6 7.6 5.6 3.6 2.1 1.7 1.5 1.0 0.1 4.6 94.4%
Illinois 91.7% 12.7% 79.0% 3   15.3 16.9 14.9 11.5 9.6 7.6 5.3 3.8 2.5 2.5 1.5 0.1 8.3 90.5%
UCLA 76.2% 5.3% 70.9% 5   4.6 6.8 8.8 9.0 9.3 8.9 8.0 7.2 5.6 4.8 2.9 0.1 23.8 74.9%
Wisconsin 72.7% 4.6% 68.1% 5   3.9 6.0 7.8 8.2 9.1 8.9 8.1 6.6 5.6 5.0 3.5 0.2 27.3 71.4%
Michigan St. 72.9% 4.3% 68.6% 5   4.2 6.3 8.5 9.1 9.1 8.9 7.6 5.7 4.9 4.8 3.7 0.2 27.1 71.7%
Ohio St. 66.6% 3.9% 62.7% 7   2.4 4.3 6.2 6.7 7.9 8.2 8.5 8.3 6.1 5.2 2.8 0.1 33.4 65.3%
USC 67.5% 3.7% 63.8% 6   2.8 4.7 6.6 7.3 7.9 7.9 8.1 7.2 6.0 5.3 3.6 0.2 0.0 32.5 66.3%
Oregon 66.0% 4.1% 61.9% 6   3.2 4.8 6.8 7.2 8.2 8.1 7.7 6.6 5.5 4.8 3.0 0.2 34.0 64.6%
Indiana 55.5% 2.8% 52.6% 9   1.6 2.9 4.4 5.2 6.4 6.6 7.0 6.8 5.8 5.3 3.5 0.1 44.5 54.2%
Iowa 55.8% 2.6% 53.2% 9   1.7 2.8 4.6 5.3 6.3 6.9 7.0 6.8 5.6 5.4 3.2 0.2 0.0 44.2 54.6%
Maryland 44.4% 1.6% 42.7% 0.8 1.5 2.8 3.7 4.6 5.1 6.0 6.2 4.9 5.1 3.4 0.2 0.0 55.7 43.4%
Washington 36.7% 1.2% 35.5% 0.3 0.7 1.6 2.3 3.0 4.0 5.5 6.3 5.2 4.9 2.7 0.1 63.3 35.9%
Nebraska 37.6% 1.2% 36.4% 0.4 0.8 1.6 2.4 3.1 4.0 5.1 5.7 5.5 5.7 3.2 0.2 0.0 62.4 36.8%
Northwestern 24.2% 0.5% 23.7% 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.7 2.0 3.2 4.0 4.1 4.2 2.7 0.1 75.8 23.8%
Minnesota 17.3% 0.3% 17.0% 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.4 1.9 2.9 3.1 3.8 2.3 0.1 82.7 17.1%
Rutgers 11.5% 0.1% 11.4% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.8 2.1 2.5 1.8 0.1 88.5 11.4%
Penn St. 7.0% 0.1% 6.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.2 1.9 1.2 0.1 93.0 6.9%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Purdue 98.5% 0.6% 98.2% 93.8% 73.3% 50.6% 33.1% 20.4% 12.6%
Michigan 95.5% 1.5% 94.8% 86.1% 59.2% 35.3% 19.5% 10.5% 5.3%
Illinois 91.7% 2.4% 90.6% 78.1% 49.0% 26.3% 13.7% 6.9% 3.5%
UCLA 76.2% 4.5% 74.1% 55.3% 28.4% 12.7% 5.5% 2.4% 0.9%
Wisconsin 72.7% 5.0% 70.4% 51.9% 25.2% 11.1% 4.9% 2.0% 0.8%
Michigan St. 72.9% 5.5% 70.4% 52.1% 25.9% 11.2% 4.9% 2.2% 1.0%
Ohio St. 66.6% 4.3% 64.5% 46.1% 21.3% 9.2% 3.9% 1.6% 0.6%
USC 67.5% 5.4% 65.0% 46.9% 22.0% 9.7% 4.1% 1.8% 0.7%
Oregon 66.0% 4.7% 63.8% 46.3% 22.5% 10.0% 4.3% 1.8% 0.7%
Indiana 55.5% 5.2% 53.0% 35.9% 16.1% 6.7% 2.6% 1.0% 0.4%
Iowa 55.8% 4.9% 53.5% 36.9% 16.3% 7.0% 2.8% 1.1% 0.5%
Maryland 44.4% 5.1% 42.0% 27.3% 10.5% 4.1% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2%
Washington 36.7% 4.1% 34.8% 21.0% 7.4% 2.8% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1%
Nebraska 37.6% 5.0% 35.0% 20.4% 7.4% 2.7% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
Northwestern 24.2% 4.1% 22.0% 11.8% 3.6% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1%
Minnesota 17.3% 3.6% 15.4% 7.9% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Rutgers 11.5% 2.8% 9.9% 4.9% 1.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Penn St. 7.0% 1.8% 6.1% 2.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 10.0 0.0 0.2 2.0 9.5 23.5 30.9 23.1 9.0 1.7 0.2
1st Round 100.0% 9.6 0.1 0.4 3.7 13.8 27.8 30.0 17.7 5.6 0.8 0.1
2nd Round 100.0% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.8 8.0 18.8 27.8 25.3 13.2 4.0 0.7 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 99.8% 3.9 0.2 2.0 10.3 24.7 31.2 21.2 8.4 1.9 0.2 0.0
Elite Eight 94.0% 2.0 6.0 25.9 37.1 23.4 6.6 1.0 0.1
Final Four 73.2% 1.0 26.8 46.5 23.0 3.6 0.1
Final Game 47.4% 0.5 52.6 41.6 5.8
Champion 27.3% 0.3 72.7 27.3