Big Ten
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
1 Michigan 100.0%   1   7 - 0 0 - 0 28 - 3 17 - 3 +26.1      +11.7 4 +14.4 1 77.6 30 +28.2 2 0.0 10
2 Purdue 99.9%   1   8 - 0 1 - 0 26 - 5 16 - 4 +22.2      +14.7 1 +7.5 14 63.7 323 +26.2 3 +21.3 6
10 Michigan St. 99.5%   3   8 - 0 1 - 0 25 - 6 14 - 6 +19.0      +8.1 29 +10.9 2 66.1 269 +24.2 6 +26.3 3
17 Illinois 92.0%   5   6 - 2 0 - 0 21 - 10 13 - 7 +17.0      +9.6 17 +7.5 16 75.0 52 +13.6 40 0.0 10
24 Indiana 72.6%   8   7 - 1 0 - 1 20 - 11 10 - 10 +14.6      +7.2 41 +7.3 18 69.6 184 +11.5 55 -7.1 18
25 Ohio St. 75.3%   7   6 - 1 0 - 0 20 - 11 11 - 9 +14.5      +7.8 34 +6.7 26 70.8 149 +8.8 74 0.0 10
27 Iowa 79.2%   8   7 - 1 0 - 1 21 - 10 11 - 9 +14.1      +7.9 33 +6.2 34 62.1 350 +18.1 18 +6.8 7
31 UCLA 68.5%   8   6 - 2 1 - 0 20 - 11 12 - 8 +13.6      +7.2 42 +6.4 32 63.7 322 +10.0 64 +27.6 1
32 USC 83.0%   7   8 - 0 1 - 0 22 - 9 11 - 9 +13.5      +8.8 22 +4.8 52 73.4 91 +20.1 13 +25.4 4
36 Wisconsin 63.4%   9   6 - 2 1 - 0 19 - 12 11 - 9 +13.0      +7.3 40 +5.7 38 73.8 81 +11.3 57 +21.4 5
49 Nebraska 54.3%   11   8 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 11 9 - 11 +10.9      +6.1 53 +4.8 53 72.2 114 +18.3 17 0.0 10
57 Washington 20.3%   5 - 3 0 - 1 16 - 15 8 - 12 +9.4      +6.1 55 +3.3 77 68.8 203 +6.7 87 -4.6 16
60 Northwestern 20.0%   5 - 3 0 - 1 16 - 15 8 - 12 +9.2      +6.4 51 +2.8 90 65.7 283 +8.6 76 +0.8 9
80 Oregon 6.5%   4 - 4 0 - 1 13 - 18 6 - 14 +7.2      +4.0 82 +3.2 82 69.3 192 +4.6 109 -4.7 17
86 Maryland 5.3%   6 - 3 0 - 0 13 - 18 6 - 14 +6.1      +2.2 115 +3.8 70 72.5 106 +8.1 78 0.0 10
95 Minnesota 2.4%   5 - 4 1 - 0 13 - 18 6 - 14 +5.1      +2.7 103 +2.4 98 60.0 361 +2.9 136 +26.8 2
96 Penn St. 3.5%   8 - 1 0 - 0 15 - 16 5 - 15 +5.1      +4.9 69 +0.2 163 69.3 191 +7.4 80 0.0 10
120 Rutgers 0.4%   5 - 4 0 - 1 12 - 19 5 - 15 +3.1      +0.8 144 +2.4 101 66.1 270 +0.2 170 +4.0 8




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Tue, Dec 2 80 Oregon 77 32 USC 82   
Tue, Dec 2 27 Iowa 52 10 Michigan St. 71   
Tue, Dec 2 224 Campbell 76 96 Penn St. 87   
Tue, Dec 2 2 Purdue 81 120 Rutgers 65   
Tue, Dec 2 86 Maryland 89 297 Wagner 63   
Wed, Dec 3 24 Indiana 64 95 Minnesota 73   
Wed, Dec 3 31 UCLA 82 57 Washington 80   
Wed, Dec 3 60 Northwestern 73 36 Wisconsin 85   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Dec 6 6 Iowa St. 74 2 Purdue 78 68%   
Sat, Dec 6 3 Duke 69 10 Michigan St. 70 50%   
Sat, Dec 6 17 Illinois 76 16 Tennessee 77 51%   
Sat, Dec 6 24 Indiana 77 14 Louisville 80 63%   
Sat, Dec 6 32 USC 82 57 Washington 75 75%   
Sat, Dec 6 60 Northwestern 73 25 Ohio St. 76 59%   
Sat, Dec 6 80 Oregon 66 31 UCLA 76 81%   
Sat, Dec 6 83 Marquette 74 36 Wisconsin 83 81%   
Sat, Dec 6 27 Iowa 77 86 Maryland 65 85%   
Sat, Dec 6 1 Michigan 87 120 Rutgers 61 98%   
Sun, Dec 7 45 Creighton 75 49 Nebraska 77 60%   
Tue, Dec 9 17 Illinois 78 25 Ohio St. 79 52%   
Tue, Dec 9 1 Michigan 80 39 Villanova 63 93%   
Tue, Dec 9 24 Indiana 82 96 Penn St. 70 87%   
Tue, Dec 9 262 San Diego 74 32 USC 90 93%   
Wed, Dec 10 49 Nebraska 80 36 Wisconsin 79 53%   
Wed, Dec 10 95 Minnesota 59 2 Purdue 79 96%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th
Michigan 1.6 63.9 21.2 8.4 3.8 1.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Purdue 2.6 32.0 31.0 15.2 8.5 5.2 3.2 2.0 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Michigan St. 3.9 12.1 18.8 21.8 15.9 10.6 7.3 4.9 3.4 2.1 1.5 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0
Illinois 4.9 6.4 13.4 17.0 16.4 13.2 10.0 7.5 5.1 3.9 2.5 1.9 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
Indiana 8.2 0.6 2.5 5.0 6.8 9.1 9.8 10.8 11.0 10.5 9.1 7.8 6.1 3.9 3.0 2.0 1.1 0.6 0.2
Ohio St. 7.2 2.3 5.1 8.0 10.3 10.8 10.8 10.1 8.9 7.8 7.4 5.4 4.5 3.1 2.4 1.5 1.1 0.4 0.2
Iowa 7.7 1.2 3.5 6.1 8.6 10.2 11.5 10.7 10.1 9.1 7.6 6.4 4.9 3.7 2.8 1.7 1.2 0.6 0.3
UCLA 6.9 1.7 5.0 8.7 11.2 12.1 11.6 11.1 9.4 7.6 6.4 5.0 3.8 2.7 1.6 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.1
USC 7.0 1.5 5.0 8.3 10.5 11.9 11.3 10.7 9.9 8.1 6.9 5.3 4.0 2.7 1.7 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.1
Wisconsin 8.0 0.9 3.0 5.4 7.6 9.5 10.4 10.4 10.9 10.2 8.4 7.0 5.3 4.2 2.8 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.2
Nebraska 10.1 0.3 1.0 2.3 4.0 4.8 6.1 7.7 8.6 9.1 9.7 9.6 9.1 7.6 6.7 5.6 3.8 2.8 1.3
Washington 11.8 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.6 3.4 4.6 5.9 7.2 8.3 9.7 10.8 10.2 9.7 8.7 7.0 5.5 3.6
Northwestern 11.7 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.6 3.4 4.4 6.3 7.6 9.1 9.8 11.3 10.4 9.5 8.2 6.9 5.2 2.8
Oregon 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.5 2.1 3.3 4.4 5.5 7.2 8.7 10.2 11.2 11.9 11.9 11.7 8.7
Maryland 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.7 2.5 3.6 5.1 6.7 9.1 10.5 11.2 12.0 12.6 12.1 10.3
Minnesota 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.1 2.9 3.8 5.2 7.2 9.2 10.6 12.5 13.3 12.6 11.2 6.8
Penn St. 14.6 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.7 2.6 3.6 4.9 6.9 8.2 10.8 12.3 14.8 15.9 15.9
Rutgers 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.5 2.3 3.4 5.0 7.2 9.4 11.8 14.7 18.1 24.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Michigan 17 - 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 4.4 8.1 13.2 20.0 22.7 19.8 8.9
Purdue 16 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.3 4.1 6.8 10.4 14.1 17.0 17.6 14.3 8.7 2.9
Michigan St. 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.8 3.6 6.2 9.9 13.0 15.7 17.0 14.3 10.2 5.3 1.5 0.3
Illinois 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.9 2.1 3.5 6.5 9.5 12.7 15.4 15.3 13.8 10.0 5.9 2.8 1.0 0.1
Indiana 10 - 10 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 3.9 6.3 9.5 13.5 14.9 15.1 12.5 9.9 6.2 3.5 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
Ohio St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 2.9 4.5 7.5 10.0 12.1 13.5 13.1 11.8 9.5 6.4 3.7 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0
Iowa 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.7 3.1 5.3 8.5 11.1 13.4 14.5 13.9 11.0 7.9 4.8 2.4 1.1 0.3 0.0
UCLA 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.7 6.3 9.3 12.3 14.0 14.7 13.2 10.1 6.9 3.7 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.0
USC 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.3 3.8 6.7 9.8 12.8 14.1 14.9 12.6 9.4 6.6 3.7 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
Wisconsin 11 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.7 3.5 6.1 8.8 12.6 14.5 14.6 13.2 10.1 6.9 4.0 2.0 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0
Nebraska 9 - 11 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.2 5.7 8.2 11.4 13.5 13.6 12.7 11.0 7.9 5.2 3.0 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Washington 8 - 12 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.7 6.4 9.5 12.3 14.7 13.9 12.7 9.7 6.9 4.1 2.5 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northwestern 8 - 12 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.0 5.8 9.2 12.5 14.6 14.9 13.3 10.4 6.7 4.1 2.3 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Oregon 6 - 14 0.3 1.6 4.2 8.0 11.5 14.4 14.9 14.1 11.6 7.9 5.6 3.0 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Maryland 6 - 14 0.3 1.7 4.7 8.9 12.7 14.6 15.3 13.9 11.4 7.4 4.5 2.5 1.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 6 - 14 0.7 3.2 7.1 11.9 15.8 16.9 15.1 11.5 8.0 4.8 2.7 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Penn St. 5 - 15 0.7 3.3 7.2 11.8 15.5 15.8 14.9 11.4 8.4 5.5 2.9 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
Rutgers 5 - 15 1.3 5.5 10.4 15.4 17.0 16.2 13.4 9.6 5.6 3.0 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Michigan 63.9% 48.4 12.9 2.3 0.3 0.0
Purdue 32.0% 19.7 10.1 1.9 0.3 0.0
Michigan St. 12.1% 6.1 4.3 1.4 0.2 0.0
Illinois 6.4% 2.9 2.5 0.9 0.2 0.0
Indiana 0.6% 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
Ohio St. 2.3% 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Iowa 1.2% 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0
UCLA 1.7% 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
USC 1.5% 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Wisconsin 0.9% 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Nebraska 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Washington 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Northwestern 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oregon 0.0% 0.0
Maryland 0.0% 0.0
Minnesota 0.0% 0.0
Penn St.
Rutgers


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Michigan 100.0% 48.7% 51.3% 1   77.1 18.7 3.0 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Purdue 99.9% 22.6% 77.3% 1   48.8 29.9 12.0 5.2 2.2 1.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.9%
Michigan St. 99.5% 10.3% 89.2% 3   17.1 23.2 22.0 16.2 10.1 5.3 2.7 1.4 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.5 99.4%
Illinois 92.0% 6.0% 86.0% 5   3.9 7.6 12.6 14.8 14.2 12.0 9.5 6.5 4.6 3.4 2.6 0.2 0.0 8.0 91.5%
Indiana 72.6% 2.0% 70.6% 8   0.6 1.7 3.6 6.2 8.5 9.8 10.6 9.6 8.6 7.4 5.8 0.3 27.4 72.1%
Ohio St. 75.3% 2.4% 72.9% 7   0.9 2.1 4.6 7.3 9.3 10.3 11.3 10.7 8.2 6.0 4.5 0.3 0.0 24.7 74.7%
Iowa 79.2% 2.1% 77.1% 8   0.8 2.0 5.1 7.5 9.5 11.5 10.7 9.8 8.9 7.5 5.5 0.3 20.8 78.7%
UCLA 68.5% 1.8% 66.7% 8   0.3 0.9 2.3 4.7 6.8 8.7 10.5 11.1 9.4 8.0 5.5 0.2 31.5 67.9%
USC 83.0% 1.8% 81.2% 7   0.6 2.0 4.7 7.8 10.1 12.3 12.1 10.7 9.5 7.8 5.2 0.2 17.0 82.7%
Wisconsin 63.4% 1.3% 62.1% 9   0.2 0.7 2.0 3.8 5.9 7.7 9.8 10.6 8.8 7.4 6.2 0.3 0.0 36.6 62.9%
Nebraska 54.3% 0.5% 53.7% 11   0.1 0.3 1.2 2.3 4.1 6.4 7.6 8.3 8.5 8.1 7.0 0.3 45.7 54.0%
Washington 20.3% 0.3% 20.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 2.1 3.6 4.0 4.6 3.7 0.2 79.7 20.1%
Northwestern 20.0% 0.2% 19.8% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.1 3.2 3.8 4.5 4.2 0.2 80.0 19.9%
Oregon 6.5% 0.1% 6.4% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.9 0.1 93.5 6.4%
Maryland 5.3% 0.0% 5.3% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.6 0.1 94.7 5.3%
Minnesota 2.4% 0.0% 2.4% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.1 97.6 2.4%
Penn St. 3.5% 0.0% 3.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.1 0.1 96.5 3.5%
Rutgers 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 99.6 0.4%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Michigan 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 99.5% 87.4% 69.7% 52.0% 37.2% 25.5%
Purdue 99.9% 0.1% 99.9% 97.4% 76.5% 51.4% 31.2% 17.8% 9.8%
Michigan St. 99.5% 0.4% 99.3% 90.5% 59.6% 31.6% 15.7% 7.5% 3.3%
Illinois 92.0% 3.2% 90.7% 72.3% 39.6% 18.2% 8.2% 3.5% 1.4%
Indiana 72.6% 6.6% 69.6% 46.6% 19.0% 7.7% 3.1% 1.1% 0.4%
Ohio St. 75.3% 5.4% 72.9% 49.6% 20.7% 8.5% 3.4% 1.4% 0.5%
Iowa 79.2% 6.4% 76.0% 50.4% 20.5% 7.9% 3.0% 1.0% 0.3%
UCLA 68.5% 6.3% 65.5% 40.2% 14.3% 5.3% 2.0% 0.7% 0.3%
USC 83.0% 6.0% 80.1% 50.0% 19.2% 6.8% 2.3% 0.7% 0.2%
Wisconsin 63.4% 7.2% 60.0% 35.9% 12.5% 4.6% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2%
Nebraska 54.3% 8.3% 49.9% 26.4% 7.4% 2.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
Washington 20.3% 4.5% 18.1% 9.1% 2.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern 20.0% 4.8% 17.5% 8.5% 2.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Oregon 6.5% 2.2% 5.3% 2.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Maryland 5.3% 1.9% 4.3% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Minnesota 2.4% 0.9% 1.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Penn St. 3.5% 1.3% 2.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rutgers 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 9.5 0.0 0.2 2.9 15.1 33.2 32.3 13.8 2.4 0.1 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 9.1 0.0 0.6 5.3 21.6 35.6 26.9 8.8 1.1 0.0
2nd Round 100.0% 6.8 0.0 0.3 2.2 11.3 25.5 31.8 20.9 7.0 1.1 0.1 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 100.0% 3.8 0.0 1.3 9.8 27.8 35.0 19.5 5.6 0.9 0.0
Elite Eight 96.8% 2.2 3.2 21.0 40.9 27.2 6.9 0.7 0.0
Final Four 82.8% 1.2 17.2 47.4 30.3 5.0 0.2
Final Game 62.0% 0.7 38.0 52.3 9.7
Champion 42.0% 0.4 58.0 42.0