UCLA
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +13.5 #36
Expected Predictive Rating +13.2 #40
Pace 63.5 #321
Improvement +0.9 #135

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #39 B+ B B B F
Defense #45 B+ C A C B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #304 1.30 #53 -0.1 #184
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% #36 0.81 #105 +4.1 #25
Three Pointers 36% #279 1.18 #16 +0.6 #160
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #58 +4.6 #58
Freethrows 19.2 #101 74% #141 14.3 #86
Second Chance 33.8% #95 1.12 #89 0.38 #67
Turnovers 14.4% #63
Total Offense +7.8 #39

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #340 1.18 #213 +4.2 #52
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #133 0.79 #224 -0.8 #240
Three Pointers 48% #32 0.84 #13 +0.7 #149
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #56 +4.2 #56
Freethrows 17.0 #175 74% #222 12.5 #174
Second Chance 30.3% #166 1.03 #161 0.31 #163
Turnovers 20.3% #21
Total Defense +5.7 #45

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.9% #329 -1.4% #70
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 12.2% #25 -6.9% #63
Possession Length 17.2 #160 19.3 #361
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #143 0.15 #89
Improvement +0.8 #138 +0.1 #180

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.8% 1.0% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 8.8% 10.3% 3.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 72.9% 76.6% 60.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 72.6% 76.4% 60.6%
Average Seed 8.5 8.4 9.0
.500 or above 98.9% 99.6% 96.6%
.500 or above in Conference 85.5% 90.3% 70.1%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four10.2% 9.5% 12.3%
First Round68.0% 72.1% 55.0%
Second Round35.9% 38.5% 27.4%
Sweet Sixteen9.3% 10.3% 6.4%
Elite Eight3.1% 3.4% 2.0%
Final Four0.9% 1.0% 0.6%
Championship Game0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Northwestern (Home) - 76.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 82 - 8
Quad 1b2 - 24 - 10
Quad 25 - 29 - 12
Quad 34 - 013 - 13
Quad 47 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 243 Eastern Washington W 80 - 74 96% +7  1 - 0 -2 +1 C D A+ -3 F A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 7 279 Pepperdine W 74 - 63 97% +10  2 - 0 +1 +8 C A+ C -5 B F B-
 Mon, Nov 10 338 West Georgia W 83 - 62 99% +11  3 - 0 +7 +8 B- C F +0 F A- A+
 Fri, Nov 14 2 Arizona L 65 - 69 18% +1  3 - 1 +19 +6 A+ D- F +13 A+ C A+
 Tue, Nov 18 290 Sacramento St. W 79 - 48 98% +19  4 - 1 +21 -0 D A+ F +21 A+ A+ A-
 Fri, Nov 21 266 Presbyterian W 86 - 46 97% +24  5 - 1 +31 +13 A+ A+ C- +20 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 75 California L 72 - 80 71% -2  5 - 2 -0 +2 C- A- B- -3 D+ A+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 47 @Washington W 82 - 80 48% +3  6 - 2 1 - 0 +16 +21 A+ A+ A+ -5 D F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 68 Oregon W 74 - 63 79% +8  7 - 2 2 - 0 +16 +14 B+ A+ C+ +3 A+ F B-
 Sat, Dec 13 6 Gonzaga L 72 - 82 25% -2  7 - 3 +11 +13 A+ C A+ -3 D+ A+ D+
 Wed, Dec 17 88 Arizona St. W 90 - 77 83% +9  8 - 3 +16 +16 A D+ A+ +1 A+ C- C
 Fri, Dec 19 281 Cal Poly W 108 - 87 97% +7  9 - 3 +11 +19 A+ D A+ -10 F C A+
 Tue, Dec 23 293 UC Riverside W 97 - 65 98% +14  10 - 3 +21 +9 C- A+ C+ +9 C+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 23 @Iowa L 61 - 74 28% -10  10 - 4 2 - 1 +6 +6 B- F A- -1 F A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 6 35 @Wisconsin L 72 - 80 38% -12  10 - 5 2 - 2 +9 +4 C B+ B +5 A- D- C-
 Sat, Jan 10 100 Maryland W 67 - 55 86% +9  11 - 5 3 - 2 +14 +0 F C A+ +15 A+ F A+
 Wed, Jan 14 116 @Penn St. W 71 - 60 76% +3  12 - 5 4 - 2 +17 +11 F A+ F +8 B A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 30 @Ohio St. L 74 - 86 36% -9  12 - 6 4 - 3 +5 +16 A- B+ A+ -13 A- F C
 Tue, Jan 20 5 Purdue W 69 - 67 32% -2  13 - 6 5 - 3 +20 +16 A+ F C +4 A+ D+ B-
 Sat, Jan 24 60 Northwestern W 75 - 68 76%
 Wed, Jan 28 68 @Oregon W 73 - 71 59%
 Sat, Jan 31 37 Indiana W 75 - 72 61%
 Tue, Feb 3 115 Rutgers W 77 - 64 89%
 Sat, Feb 7 47 Washington W 76 - 70 70%
 Sat, Feb 14 1 @Michigan L 69 - 84 9%
 Tue, Feb 17 11 @Michigan St. L 63 - 73 19%
 Sat, Feb 21 9 Illinois L 72 - 76 36%
 Tue, Feb 24 48 USC W 77 - 71 70%
 Sat, Feb 28 71 @Minnesota W 68 - 66 58%
 Tue, Mar 3 14 Nebraska L 71 - 73 44%
 Sat, Mar 7 48 @USC L 73 - 74 48%
Totals 19 - 12 11 - 9 +13 +8 B+ B B +6 B+ C A




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 1.2 0.1 2.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 2.5 1.0 0.0 4.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 4.6 3.4 0.2 9.1 5th
6th 0.0 1.7 7.0 7.8 1.3 17.8 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 8.0 9.8 2.6 0.1 21.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 5.3 8.9 2.9 0.2 17.8 8th
9th 0.1 2.5 6.4 2.7 0.2 0.0 11.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 3.9 2.5 0.2 7.3 10th
11th 0.1 1.6 2.0 0.3 4.0 11th
12th 0.5 1.2 0.3 2.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.1 4.0 9.3 15.9 21.5 20.7 15.9 8.0 2.9 0.4 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 70.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 19.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 1.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.4% 100.0% 9.2% 90.8% 4.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 2.9% 100.0% 3.6% 96.4% 5.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 8.0% 98.7% 2.5% 96.2% 6.8 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.0 2.7 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.1 98.7%
13-7 15.9% 96.5% 1.0% 95.5% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.7 4.5 4.8 3.0 0.8 0.1 0.6 96.5%
12-8 20.7% 91.0% 0.9% 90.2% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.6 5.6 5.7 3.3 0.9 1.9 90.9%
11-9 21.5% 78.5% 0.7% 77.8% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.9 5.0 5.3 2.7 0.0 4.6 78.3%
10-10 15.9% 53.1% 0.2% 52.9% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.6 4.1 0.1 7.4 53.0%
9-11 9.3% 20.2% 0.3% 19.9% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.4 0.1 7.4 19.9%
8-12 4.0% 2.9% 0.1% 2.7% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.9 2.8%
7-13 1.1% 1.1
6-14 0.2% 0.2
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 72.9% 0.9% 72.0% 8.5 27.1 72.6%