UCLA
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.3#29
Expected Predictive Rating+15.0#31
Pace63.8#299
Improvement+0.4#168

Offense
Total Offense+6.3#42
First Shot+4.3#63
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#75
Layup/Dunks+0.3#171
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#34
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#190
Freethrows+1.0#114
Improvement+4.1#17

Defense
Total Defense+8.1#19
First Shot+2.3#105
After Offensive Rebounds+5.8#1
Layups/Dunks+3.1#69
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#205
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#272
Freethrows+1.2#101
Improvement-3.7#341
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.6% 2.7% 0.3%
Top 4 Seed 12.8% 18.8% 6.1%
Top 6 Seed 45.8% 56.6% 33.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 97.4% 99.0% 95.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 97.2% 98.9% 95.5%
Average Seed 6.6 6.1 7.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 95.9% 98.8% 92.7%
Conference Champion 3.2% 5.8% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.5% 0.4% 2.6%
First Round96.8% 98.8% 94.5%
Second Round62.3% 67.2% 56.8%
Sweet Sixteen24.0% 28.4% 19.2%
Elite Eight8.9% 10.8% 6.9%
Final Four3.2% 3.8% 2.6%
Championship Game1.3% 1.5% 1.0%
National Champion0.5% 0.6% 0.3%

Next Game: Michigan St. (Home) - 52.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 43 - 4
Quad 1b4 - 48 - 8
Quad 25 - 213 - 11
Quad 32 - 015 - 11
Quad 47 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 303   Rider W 85-50 98%     1 - 0 +24.5 +14.1 +13.5
  Nov 08, 2024 40   New Mexico L 64-72 59%     1 - 1 +3.9 -5.9 +10.3
  Nov 11, 2024 294   Boston University W 71-40 98%     2 - 1 +21.2 -7.3 +27.4
  Nov 15, 2024 267   Lehigh W 85-45 97%     3 - 1 +31.6 +14.9 +19.6
  Nov 20, 2024 234   Idaho St. W 84-70 96%     4 - 1 +7.3 +17.3 -8.3
  Nov 22, 2024 317   Cal St. Fullerton W 80-47 98%     5 - 1 +21.3 +7.5 +15.8
  Nov 26, 2024 268   Southern Utah W 88-43 97%     6 - 1 +36.5 +10.6 +25.2
  Dec 03, 2024 89   Washington W 69-58 84%     7 - 1 1 - 0 +14.8 +5.3 +10.4
  Dec 08, 2024 45   @ Oregon W 73-71 51%     8 - 1 2 - 0 +16.1 +10.1 +6.1
  Dec 14, 2024 10   Arizona W 57-54 37%     9 - 1 +20.8 -2.6 +23.7
  Dec 17, 2024 348   Prairie View W 111-75 99%     10 - 1 +21.1 +22.4 -4.0
  Dec 21, 2024 36   North Carolina L 74-76 56%     10 - 2 +10.7 +4.9 +5.8
  Dec 28, 2024 11   Gonzaga W 65-62 37%     11 - 2 +20.7 +2.1 +18.8
  Jan 04, 2025 48   @ Nebraska L 58-66 55%     11 - 3 2 - 1 +5.1 -8.0 +13.2
  Jan 07, 2025 18   Michigan L 75-94 53%     11 - 4 2 - 2 -5.4 +6.2 -11.0
  Jan 10, 2025 16   @ Maryland L 61-79 32%     11 - 5 2 - 3 +1.2 +0.6 -0.3
  Jan 13, 2025 63   @ Rutgers L 68-75 61%     11 - 6 2 - 4 +4.4 +5.4 -1.5
  Jan 17, 2025 60   Iowa W 94-70 76%     12 - 6 3 - 4 +30.9 +23.9 +7.8
  Jan 21, 2025 17   Wisconsin W 85-83 51%     13 - 6 4 - 4 +16.1 +21.6 -5.4
  Jan 24, 2025 89   @ Washington W 65-60 71%     14 - 6 5 - 4 +13.7 +3.5 +10.6
  Jan 27, 2025 54   @ USC W 82-76 57%     15 - 6 6 - 4 +18.4 +20.9 -2.0
  Jan 30, 2025 45   Oregon W 78-52 69%     16 - 6 7 - 4 +35.1 +21.9 +17.4
  Feb 04, 2025 15   Michigan St. L 69-70 53%    
  Feb 08, 2025 50   Penn St. W 76-69 75%    
  Feb 11, 2025 13   @ Illinois L 71-76 29%    
  Feb 14, 2025 53   @ Indiana W 72-70 55%    
  Feb 18, 2025 92   Minnesota W 70-59 85%    
  Feb 23, 2025 25   Ohio St. W 70-68 59%    
  Feb 28, 2025 9   @ Purdue L 66-72 27%    
  Mar 03, 2025 56   @ Northwestern W 67-65 56%    
  Mar 08, 2025 54   USC W 74-67 75%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 1.9 0.6 3.2 1st
2nd 0.8 4.5 2.5 0.1 7.9 2nd
3rd 0.3 4.7 5.8 0.4 11.2 3rd
4th 0.1 2.9 9.4 2.2 0.0 14.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.2 8.7 6.2 0.3 16.4 5th
6th 0.2 5.1 10.1 1.2 16.6 6th
7th 1.9 8.6 3.1 0.1 13.6 7th
8th 0.2 4.1 4.0 0.3 8.6 8th
9th 1.0 2.9 0.5 4.3 9th
10th 0.1 1.3 0.6 0.0 2.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 1.0 11th
12th 0.3 0.2 0.5 12th
13th 0.1 0.1 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.1 0.7 3.3 9.9 19.4 25.3 22.5 13.5 4.8 0.7 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 90.9% 0.6    0.4 0.2 0.0
15-5 39.0% 1.9    0.3 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0
14-6 5.4% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.2% 3.2 0.7 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.7% 100.0% 15.2% 84.8% 2.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 4.8% 100.0% 11.3% 88.7% 3.6 0.0 0.8 1.4 1.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 13.5% 100.0% 11.6% 88.4% 4.9 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.9 4.6 3.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 22.5% 99.9% 8.0% 91.9% 5.9 0.1 0.7 2.1 5.1 7.6 5.1 1.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-8 25.3% 99.3% 4.0% 95.3% 6.9 0.1 0.5 2.4 6.2 8.3 5.7 1.7 0.2 0.0 0.2 99.3%
11-9 19.4% 97.9% 2.3% 95.6% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.1 4.2 6.7 4.0 1.3 0.1 0.4 97.8%
10-10 9.9% 93.5% 2.0% 91.5% 8.6 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.8 3.1 1.6 0.3 0.6 93.4%
9-11 3.3% 75.7% 0.6% 75.1% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.8 75.5%
8-12 0.7% 35.6% 35.6% 11.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.5 35.6%
7-13 0.1% 0.0 0.1
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 97.4% 5.7% 91.7% 6.6 0.2 1.4 4.0 7.3 13.5 19.5 19.4 17.1 9.6 4.0 1.4 0.0 2.6 97.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 2.5 18.2 31.8 36.4 9.1 4.5