UCLA
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.6#24
Expected Predictive Rating+15.9#23
Pace63.5#302
Improvement+1.6#132

Offense
Total Offense+7.1#38
First Shot+5.0#57
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#68
Layup/Dunks+0.5#164
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#32
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#182
Freethrows+1.1#109
Improvement+4.0#24

Defense
Total Defense+8.5#14
First Shot+2.8#85
After Offensive Rebounds+5.7#2
Layups/Dunks+3.2#68
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#199
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#261
Freethrows+1.2#99
Improvement-2.4#300
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.5% 1.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 20.8% 38.9% 3.3%
Top 6 Seed 78.2% 94.7% 62.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 5.5 4.8 6.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round73.0% 78.6% 67.6%
Sweet Sixteen33.5% 38.8% 28.3%
Elite Eight11.3% 12.7% 9.8%
Final Four3.8% 4.3% 3.3%
Championship Game1.1% 1.3% 0.9%
National Champion0.3% 0.4% 0.2%

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 45 - 4
Quad 1b5 - 49 - 8
Quad 25 - 115 - 9
Quad 31 - 116 - 10
Quad 47 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 299   Rider W 85-50 98%     1 - 0 +24.3 +13.2 +14.1
  Nov 08, 2024 41   New Mexico L 64-72 61%     1 - 1 +4.6 -5.1 +10.3
  Nov 11, 2024 297   Boston University W 71-40 98%     2 - 1 +20.5 -8.3 +27.7
  Nov 15, 2024 280   Lehigh W 85-45 98%     3 - 1 +30.5 +14.4 +19.1
  Nov 20, 2024 214   Idaho St. W 84-70 97%     4 - 1 +8.3 +17.5 -7.6
  Nov 22, 2024 351   Cal St. Fullerton W 80-47 99%     5 - 1 +17.0 +6.7 +12.2
  Nov 26, 2024 304   Southern Utah W 88-43 98%     6 - 1 +34.0 +10.5 +22.7
  Dec 03, 2024 104   Washington W 69-58 90%     7 - 1 1 - 0 +12.2 +2.5 +10.6
  Dec 08, 2024 34   @ Oregon W 73-71 47%     8 - 1 2 - 0 +18.4 +11.4 +7.0
  Dec 14, 2024 12   Arizona W 57-54 41%     9 - 1 +21.0 -3.3 +24.5
  Dec 17, 2024 358   Prairie View W 111-75 99.5%    10 - 1 +17.3 +21.0 -6.3
  Dec 21, 2024 36   North Carolina L 74-76 59%     10 - 2 +11.3 +3.6 +7.8
  Dec 28, 2024 9   Gonzaga W 65-62 38%     11 - 2 +21.8 +3.2 +18.8
  Jan 04, 2025 57   @ Nebraska L 58-66 61%     11 - 3 2 - 1 +4.8 -8.7 +13.6
  Jan 07, 2025 30   Michigan L 75-94 66%     11 - 4 2 - 2 -7.5 +6.7 -13.6
  Jan 10, 2025 11   @ Maryland L 61-79 30%     11 - 5 2 - 3 +3.0 +3.2 -1.1
  Jan 13, 2025 65   @ Rutgers L 68-75 66%     11 - 6 2 - 4 +4.4 +3.8 +0.1
  Jan 17, 2025 63   Iowa W 94-70 81%     12 - 6 3 - 4 +30.4 +23.3 +7.9
  Jan 21, 2025 15   Wisconsin W 85-83 54%     13 - 6 4 - 4 +16.6 +22.4 -5.7
  Jan 24, 2025 104   @ Washington W 65-60 80%     14 - 6 5 - 4 +11.7 +1.0 +11.1
  Jan 27, 2025 62   @ USC W 82-76 64%     15 - 6 6 - 4 +18.0 +19.1 -0.7
  Jan 30, 2025 34   Oregon W 78-52 68%     16 - 6 7 - 4 +36.8 +23.1 +18.0
  Feb 04, 2025 8   Michigan St. W 63-61 45%     17 - 6 8 - 4 +18.7 +6.3 +12.6
  Feb 08, 2025 58   Penn St. W 78-54 79%     18 - 6 9 - 4 +31.2 +15.0 +18.3
  Feb 11, 2025 17   @ Illinois L 78-83 35%     18 - 7 9 - 5 +14.6 +16.3 -1.9
  Feb 14, 2025 42   @ Indiana W 72-68 54%     19 - 7 10 - 5 +18.6 +13.7 +5.3
  Feb 18, 2025 86   Minnesota L 61-64 86%     19 - 8 10 - 6 +0.9 +1.5 -1.1
  Feb 23, 2025 37   Ohio St. W 69-61 69%     20 - 8 11 - 6 +18.5 +5.0 +14.1
  Feb 28, 2025 16   @ Purdue L 66-76 33%     20 - 9 11 - 7 +10.0 +9.8 -1.4
  Mar 03, 2025 51   @ Northwestern W 73-69 57%     21 - 9 12 - 7 +17.6 +14.0 +4.0
  Mar 08, 2025 62   USC W 90-63 80%     22 - 9 13 - 7 +33.5 +18.8 +15.0
Projected Record 22 - 9 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 100.0 100.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 100.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 100.0% 100.0% 8.9% 91.1% 5.5 0.0 0.5 7.1 13.2 26.7 30.7 19.2 2.6 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 8.9% 91.1% 5.5 0.0 0.5 7.1 13.2 26.7 30.7 19.2 2.6 0.0 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 8.9% 100.0% 3.4 0.1 5.2 52.2 35.6 6.4 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 11.2% 100.0% 4.6 10.8 31.2 42.3 14.1 1.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 29.0% 100.0% 5.2 0.0 3.6 17.5 39.7 30.9 8.0 0.3
Lose Out 50.9% 100.0% 6.2 0.3 2.9 19.4 39.5 32.7 5.0 0.1