Sacramento St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.5#337
Expected Predictive Rating-13.8#346
Pace62.4#332
Improvement-2.1#280

Offense
Total Offense-7.9#351
First Shot-6.2#336
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#283
Layup/Dunks-2.2#265
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#321
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#143
Freethrows-2.4#314
Improvement+0.4#162

Defense
Total Defense-3.6#281
First Shot-2.4#254
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#287
Layups/Dunks+2.6#82
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#234
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#323
Freethrows-0.6#226
Improvement-2.5#303
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.5% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.2% 0.9% 0.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 85.6% 65.7% 90.5%
First Four0.3% 0.5% 0.3%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Washington (Away) - 19.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 71 - 11
Quad 45 - 135 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 259   @ Fresno St. L 57-64 21%     0 - 1 -10.1 -15.2 +5.0
  Nov 12, 2024 65   @ UC San Diego L 54-64 3%     0 - 2 +0.7 -6.4 +5.9
  Nov 16, 2024 127   Cal St. Northridge L 69-79 15%     0 - 3 -10.4 -2.8 -7.7
  Nov 24, 2024 116   @ California L 77-83 7%     0 - 4 -0.7 +3.3 -3.8
  Nov 27, 2024 277   @ Air Force W 63-61 24%     1 - 4 -1.9 -5.8 +4.0
  Nov 30, 2024 353   Mercyhurst L 60-66 66%     1 - 5 -21.6 -11.8 -10.6
  Dec 04, 2024 331   @ Denver L 59-80 37%     1 - 6 -29.1 -11.9 -19.6
  Dec 07, 2024 212   Nebraska Omaha L 60-70 27%     1 - 7 -15.2 -13.7 -2.0
  Dec 14, 2024 216   UC Davis L 62-69 29%     1 - 8 -12.6 -6.9 -6.0
  Dec 17, 2024 76   @ Oregon St. L 45-82 3%     1 - 9 -27.0 -22.8 -5.9
  Jan 04, 2025 215   Portland St. W 56-53 28%     2 - 9 1 - 0 -2.5 -9.5 +7.5
  Jan 09, 2025 249   Idaho L 67-80 36%     2 - 10 1 - 1 -20.7 -4.5 -18.0
  Jan 11, 2025 252   Eastern Washington L 54-65 36%     2 - 11 1 - 2 -18.8 -18.7 -0.8
  Jan 16, 2025 250   @ Northern Arizona L 53-77 20%     2 - 12 1 - 3 -26.8 -20.6 -6.6
  Jan 18, 2025 154   @ Northern Colorado L 64-68 9%     2 - 13 1 - 4 -0.9 -1.9 +0.6
  Jan 23, 2025 234   Idaho St. W 75-71 32%     3 - 13 2 - 4 -2.7 +2.0 -4.5
  Jan 25, 2025 286   Weber St. L 81-87 41%     3 - 14 2 - 5 -15.3 +5.9 -21.5
  Jan 30, 2025 189   @ Montana St. L 58-70 12%     3 - 15 2 - 6 -10.9 -11.3 -0.2
  Feb 01, 2025 207   @ Montana L 59-87 14%     3 - 16 2 - 7 -27.8 -8.2 -23.2
  Feb 06, 2025 252   @ Eastern Washington L 63-72 19%    
  Feb 08, 2025 249   @ Idaho L 64-73 19%    
  Feb 13, 2025 154   Northern Colorado L 66-76 19%    
  Feb 15, 2025 250   Northern Arizona L 66-70 38%    
  Feb 20, 2025 286   @ Weber St. L 63-70 24%    
  Feb 22, 2025 234   @ Idaho St. L 60-70 17%    
  Feb 27, 2025 207   Montana L 65-72 27%    
  Mar 01, 2025 189   Montana St. L 62-70 25%    
  Mar 03, 2025 215   @ Portland St. L 62-73 14%    
Projected Record 5 - 23 4 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 1.7 0.3 2.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 3.7 1.2 0.0 6.4 8th
9th 0.3 4.0 9.2 4.2 0.2 17.8 9th
10th 12.4 26.6 23.4 8.7 0.8 0.0 71.8 10th
Total 12.4 26.8 27.5 19.3 9.3 3.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0% 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.2% 9.5% 9.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2
8-10 1.0% 1.0
7-11 3.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 3.5
6-12 9.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 9.2
5-13 19.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 19.1
4-14 27.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 27.4
3-15 26.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 26.8
2-16 12.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.4
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 16.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 9.3%