Weber St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.2#208
Expected Predictive Rating-3.5#226
Pace64.4#298
Improvement+0.7#138

Offense
Total Offense+0.2#167
First Shot-1.3#212
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#98
Layup/Dunks-0.1#182
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#191
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#190
Freethrows-0.5#207
Improvement+1.2#91

Defense
Total Defense-2.5#251
First Shot+0.8#144
After Offensive Rebounds-3.3#351
Layups/Dunks-3.0#292
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#1
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#85
Freethrows-2.4#326
Improvement-0.5#224
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.2% 16.5% 11.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.8 15.2
.500 or above 49.0% 61.1% 36.6%
.500 or above in Conference 76.0% 80.8% 71.2%
Conference Champion 17.8% 20.9% 14.6%
Last Place in Conference 3.0% 2.1% 3.9%
First Four2.4% 1.8% 3.1%
First Round13.3% 15.8% 10.6%
Second Round0.6% 0.8% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah Valley (Home) - 50.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 62 - 10
Quad 413 - 615 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 65   @ Oregon St. L 48-76 10%     0 - 1 -16.3 -13.5 -5.3
  Nov 13, 2024 52   @ Nevada L 58-88 8%     0 - 2 -17.0 -3.8 -15.9
  Nov 17, 2024 174   @ Hawaii L 68-73 OT 33%     0 - 3 -2.8 -3.8 +1.0
  Nov 22, 2024 60   UC Irvine L 87-93 21%     0 - 4 +0.2 +14.3 -13.7
  Nov 29, 2024 267   Bowling Green W 73-70 63%     1 - 4 -2.7 -3.2 +0.6
  Nov 30, 2024 237   Pepperdine W 68-53 57%     2 - 4 +10.9 -5.9 +16.9
  Dec 04, 2024 130   North Dakota St. L 73-77 46%     2 - 5 -5.2 +5.6 -11.3
  Dec 07, 2024 278   @ North Dakota L 75-80 55%     2 - 6 -8.4 +2.1 -10.8
  Dec 13, 2024 287   @ Utah Tech W 73-71 56%     3 - 6 -1.8 +8.1 -9.7
  Dec 21, 2024 148   Utah Valley W 70-69 51%    
  Dec 29, 2024 23   @ Oregon L 62-81 3%    
  Jan 02, 2025 197   @ Northern Colorado L 73-77 37%    
  Jan 04, 2025 285   @ Northern Arizona W 73-71 55%    
  Jan 11, 2025 251   @ Idaho St. L 66-67 49%    
  Jan 16, 2025 215   Montana W 75-72 62%    
  Jan 18, 2025 141   Montana St. L 71-72 49%    
  Jan 23, 2025 260   @ Portland St. W 75-74 51%    
  Jan 25, 2025 335   @ Sacramento St. W 68-63 69%    
  Jan 30, 2025 279   Idaho W 74-67 75%    
  Feb 01, 2025 254   Eastern Washington W 78-72 70%    
  Feb 03, 2025 285   Northern Arizona W 76-68 75%    
  Feb 08, 2025 251   Idaho St. W 69-63 69%    
  Feb 13, 2025 141   @ Montana St. L 69-75 29%    
  Feb 15, 2025 215   @ Montana L 72-75 41%    
  Feb 20, 2025 335   Sacramento St. W 71-60 84%    
  Feb 22, 2025 260   Portland St. W 77-71 71%    
  Feb 27, 2025 254   @ Eastern Washington L 74-75 49%    
  Mar 01, 2025 279   @ Idaho W 71-70 54%    
  Mar 03, 2025 197   Northern Colorado W 76-74 58%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.3 5.1 3.8 1.8 0.6 0.1 17.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.3 6.3 5.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 17.6 2nd
3rd 0.4 3.4 6.5 4.0 0.9 0.1 15.5 3rd
4th 0.2 2.8 6.3 3.3 0.4 0.0 13.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.9 5.6 2.9 0.3 0.0 10.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.1 2.7 0.4 0.0 8.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.9 3.1 2.5 0.4 0.0 6.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.1 1.9 0.4 0.0 5.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.1 0.3 0.0 3.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.5 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.2 4.3 6.7 9.1 11.9 13.4 13.8 12.5 10.5 7.2 4.2 1.9 0.6 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
16-2 97.6% 1.8    1.7 0.1
15-3 90.9% 3.8    3.2 0.6 0.0
14-4 70.9% 5.1    3.3 1.6 0.2 0.0
13-5 40.9% 4.3    1.8 1.8 0.6 0.1
12-6 14.4% 1.8    0.3 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0
11-7 2.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 17.8% 17.8 10.9 5.0 1.5 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 41.7% 41.7% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.6% 44.5% 44.5% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
16-2 1.9% 38.9% 38.9% 13.7 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 1.1
15-3 4.2% 33.7% 33.7% 14.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 2.8
14-4 7.2% 29.0% 29.0% 14.4 0.2 1.0 0.9 0.0 5.1
13-5 10.5% 22.8% 22.8% 14.8 0.1 0.7 1.3 0.3 8.1
12-6 12.5% 18.1% 18.1% 15.2 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.6 10.3
11-7 13.8% 14.7% 14.7% 15.5 0.0 1.0 1.0 11.7
10-8 13.4% 10.5% 10.5% 15.7 0.0 0.4 1.0 12.0
9-9 11.9% 7.5% 7.5% 16.0 0.0 0.9 11.0
8-10 9.1% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.4 8.8
7-11 6.7% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.2 6.5
6-12 4.3% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.1 4.2
5-13 2.2% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 2.2
4-14 1.0% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 1.0
3-15 0.4% 0.4
2-16 0.1% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 14.2% 14.2% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.1 5.3 4.6 85.8 0.0%