Montana St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating-0.8#175
Expected Predictive Rating-3.4#224
Pace65.7#247
Improvement+0.7#165

Offense
Total Offense-0.3#190
First Shot+3.5#88
After Offensive Rebound-3.8#347
Layup/Dunks-2.0#252
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#93
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.8#20
Freethrows-2.8#327
Improvement+0.1#186

Defense
Total Defense-0.5#187
First Shot+0.1#180
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#234
Layups/Dunks-2.4#277
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#97
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#38
Freethrows-2.3#323
Improvement+0.7#154
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.8% 55.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four16.4% 41.4% 0.0%
First Round16.3% 41.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 33 - 83 - 13
Quad 412 - 415 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 15   @ Wisconsin L 67-79 4%     0 - 1 +8.1 +7.0 +0.3
  Nov 09, 2024 126   @ Wichita St. L 69-89 29%     0 - 2 -15.2 +0.3 -15.7
  Nov 17, 2024 302   @ Denver L 78-79 67%     0 - 3 -6.4 -3.1 -3.2
  Nov 19, 2024 51   @ Northwestern L 69-72 9%     0 - 4 +10.6 +9.6 +0.8
  Nov 24, 2024 293   Southern Miss W 79-59 82%     1 - 4 +9.6 +0.6 +8.3
  Nov 26, 2024 210   Abilene Christian W 85-59 68%     2 - 4 +20.4 +21.1 +1.6
  Nov 30, 2024 113   Cal St. Northridge L 69-72 OT 45%     2 - 5 -2.4 -7.8 +5.5
  Dec 04, 2024 149   @ Nebraska Omaha W 76-65 34%     3 - 5 +14.5 +8.4 +7.0
  Dec 07, 2024 234   UMKC W 74-62 71%     4 - 5 +5.3 +9.3 -2.5
  Dec 15, 2024 62   @ USC L 63-89 12%     4 - 6 -14.0 -10.9 -1.1
  Dec 18, 2024 142   @ UC Riverside L 80-83 33%     4 - 7 +0.8 +11.9 -11.3
  Dec 22, 2024 77   @ TCU L 48-82 15%     4 - 8 -23.9 -15.8 -8.5
  Jan 02, 2025 261   @ Idaho L 64-69 58%     4 - 9 0 - 1 -7.8 -13.6 +5.8
  Jan 04, 2025 295   @ Eastern Washington L 63-68 65%     4 - 10 0 - 2 -9.9 -10.7 +0.7
  Jan 09, 2025 130   Northern Colorado L 82-83 50%     4 - 11 0 - 3 -1.9 +10.3 -12.2
  Jan 11, 2025 246   Northern Arizona W 58-53 73%     5 - 11 1 - 3 -2.3 -20.2 +17.8
  Jan 16, 2025 214   @ Idaho St. L 67-70 48%     5 - 12 1 - 4 -3.2 +4.8 -8.5
  Jan 18, 2025 284   @ Weber St. W 80-71 64%     6 - 12 2 - 4 +4.6 +7.9 -3.0
  Jan 20, 2025 295   Eastern Washington W 74-64 82%     7 - 12 3 - 4 -0.4 +5.2 -4.4
  Jan 25, 2025 172   @ Montana L 70-77 39%     7 - 13 3 - 5 -4.9 +3.6 -9.2
  Jan 30, 2025 336   Sacramento St. W 70-58 89%     8 - 13 4 - 5 -2.3 -4.6 +2.9
  Feb 01, 2025 202   Portland St. W 74-73 66%     9 - 13 5 - 5 -4.2 +6.2 -10.3
  Feb 06, 2025 246   @ Northern Arizona L 64-69 54%     9 - 14 5 - 6 -6.8 -2.4 -5.0
  Feb 08, 2025 130   @ Northern Colorado L 66-73 30%     9 - 15 5 - 7 -2.4 -2.3 -0.6
  Feb 13, 2025 284   Weber St. W 74-66 81%     10 - 15 6 - 7 -1.9 -2.7 +0.9
  Feb 15, 2025 214   Idaho St. W 74-69 68%     11 - 15 7 - 7 -0.7 -1.2 +0.5
  Feb 22, 2025 172   Montana L 85-89 60%     11 - 16 7 - 8 -7.4 +10.3 -17.7
  Feb 27, 2025 202   @ Portland St. L 52-69 45%     11 - 17 7 - 9 -16.6 -6.6 -13.5
  Mar 01, 2025 336   @ Sacramento St. W 87-60 78%     12 - 17 8 - 9 +18.2 +20.0 +0.9
  Mar 03, 2025 261   Idaho W 75-60 76%     13 - 17 9 - 9 +6.7 +0.9 +7.1
  Mar 10, 2025 214   Idaho St. W 80-60 58%     14 - 17 +17.0 +8.7 +9.3
  Mar 11, 2025 130   Northern Colorado L 73-76 40%    
Projected Record 14 - 18 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 100.0 100.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 100.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 100.0% 21.8% 21.8% 16.0 0.4 21.5 78.2
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 21.8% 21.8% 0.0% 16.0 0.4 21.5 78.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 21.8% 100.0% 16.0 1.6 98.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 17.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 60.4%