Montana St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.1#152
Expected Predictive Rating-3.6#224
Pace65.5#287
Improvement+1.5#72

Offense
Total Offense-0.2#168
First Shot+0.0#178
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#184
Layup/Dunks-3.5#300
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#34
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#94
Freethrows-3.0#325
Improvement+2.2#30

Defense
Total Defense+0.3#160
First Shot-2.6#261
After Offensive Rebounds+2.9#38
Layups/Dunks-2.8#280
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#319
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#74
Freethrows-0.6#224
Improvement-0.7#249
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.3% 17.7% 13.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.1 14.7
.500 or above 57.3% 64.3% 41.3%
.500 or above in Conference 77.4% 80.0% 71.3%
Conference Champion 22.3% 24.6% 17.3%
Last Place in Conference 3.3% 2.7% 4.9%
First Four1.3% 1.0% 2.0%
First Round15.9% 17.3% 12.7%
Second Round0.9% 1.0% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oral Roberts (Away) - 69.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 35 - 55 - 10
Quad 410 - 415 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 64 @Colorado L 78-84 14%     0 - 1 +5.8 +10.0 -4.3
  Sun, Nov 9 291 Denver L 73-75 83%     0 - 2 -12.1 -2.7 -9.7
  Wed, Nov 12 84 @Stanford L 68-77 18%     0 - 3 +0.6 -4.0 +5.2
  Sat, Nov 15 59 @Boise St. L 58-62 13%     0 - 4 +8.3 -0.6 +8.5
  Fri, Nov 21 286 @Long Beach St. W 78-72 65%     1 - 4 +2.2 +4.2 -1.9
  Sat, Nov 29 51 @Utah St. L 81-84 OT 11%     1 - 5 +10.6 +6.6 +4.3
  Wed, Dec 3 166 St. Thomas W 82-74 65%     2 - 5 +4.2 +9.7 -5.3
  Sat, Dec 6 311 @Oral Roberts W 77-72 69%    
  Sat, Dec 13 163 @Oregon St. L 67-69 42%    
  Tue, Dec 16 243 @Cal Poly W 80-78 56%    
  Thu, Jan 1 151 Northern Colorado W 73-70 60%    
  Sat, Jan 3 263 Northern Arizona W 75-66 79%    
  Thu, Jan 8 251 @Eastern Washington W 76-74 58%    
  Sat, Jan 10 187 @Idaho L 70-71 46%    
  Sat, Jan 17 197 Montana W 78-72 69%    
  Mon, Jan 19 151 @Northern Colorado L 70-73 39%    
  Thu, Jan 22 167 Idaho St. W 69-65 64%    
  Sat, Jan 24 192 Weber St. W 76-71 68%    
  Thu, Jan 29 274 @Sacramento St. W 75-72 62%    
  Sat, Jan 31 156 @Portland St. L 69-72 40%    
  Thu, Feb 5 187 Idaho W 73-68 67%    
  Sat, Feb 7 251 Eastern Washington W 79-71 76%    
  Sat, Feb 14 197 @Montana L 74-75 48%    
  Thu, Feb 19 192 @Weber St. L 73-74 47%    
  Sat, Feb 21 167 @Idaho St. L 66-68 44%    
  Thu, Feb 26 156 Portland St. W 72-69 61%    
  Sat, Feb 28 274 Sacramento St. W 78-69 79%    
  Mon, Mar 2 263 @Northern Arizona W 72-69 60%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.4 5.2 6.3 4.6 2.4 0.9 0.1 22.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.6 6.4 4.8 1.9 0.4 0.0 17.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 3.5 6.2 3.6 0.8 0.1 14.4 3rd
4th 0.2 2.5 6.0 2.9 0.4 0.0 11.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.8 4.8 2.8 0.3 9.7 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 3.8 2.8 0.3 0.0 8.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 2.7 2.7 0.3 6.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 2.0 1.8 0.4 0.0 4.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.3 0.3 3.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.7 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.0 4.1 6.2 8.8 10.7 12.9 13.5 12.8 10.8 8.3 5.0 2.4 0.9 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.9    0.9 0.0
16-2 98.5% 2.4    2.3 0.1
15-3 92.6% 4.6    4.0 0.6 0.0
14-4 76.0% 6.3    4.3 1.8 0.2 0.0
13-5 47.9% 5.2    2.3 2.2 0.6 0.1
12-6 18.9% 2.4    0.5 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0
11-7 3.0% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1
10-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 22.3% 22.3 14.5 5.9 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 39.5% 39.5% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.9% 49.6% 49.6% 12.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5
16-2 2.4% 43.1% 43.1% 13.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.4
15-3 5.0% 37.0% 37.0% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 3.1
14-4 8.3% 30.9% 30.9% 13.7 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.4 5.7
13-5 10.8% 23.8% 23.8% 14.0 0.0 0.6 1.3 0.6 0.0 8.2
12-6 12.8% 20.0% 20.0% 14.4 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.1 0.1 10.3
11-7 13.5% 15.6% 15.6% 14.9 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.3 11.4
10-8 12.9% 11.4% 11.4% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.5 11.5
9-9 10.7% 9.2% 9.2% 15.7 0.0 0.3 0.7 9.7
8-10 8.8% 4.0% 4.0% 15.9 0.0 0.3 8.4
7-11 6.2% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.2 5.9
6-12 4.1% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 4.0
5-13 2.0% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.1 2.0
4-14 1.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.0
3-15 0.4% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.4
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 16.3% 16.3% 0.0% 14.2 0.1 0.8 3.2 5.3 4.6 2.3 83.7 0.0%