Montana St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.5 #152
Expected Predictive Rating +0.3 #159
Pace 65.2 #277
Improvement +0.5 #152

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #166 C C- C+ F D+
Defense #147 B D+ D+ C+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #341 1.09 #267 -5.6 #344
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #146 0.91 #30 +2.3 #71
Three Pointers 47% #62 1.07 #106 +4.4 #44
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #149 +1.1 #147
Freethrows 13.7 #338 70% #280 9.5 #340
Second Chance 29.1% #230 1.04 #186 0.30 #210
Turnovers 15.7% #133
Total Offense +0.0 #166

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #35 1.08 #85 -1.9 #245
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #164 0.76 #188 -0.2 #193
Three Pointers 34% #342 0.87 #28 +6.0 #9
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #67 +3.9 #67
Freethrows 15.8 #101 76% #319 12.0 #153
Second Chance 31.5% #226 1.14 #296 0.36 #276
Turnovers 15.3% #250
Total Defense +0.6 #147

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.5% #285 0.9% #247
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.6% #121 -8.3% #43
Possession Length 18.9 #323 17.0 #135
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #267 0.14 #84
Improvement +0.7 #141 -0.2 #203

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.0% 22.3% 17.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.9 14.4
.500 or above 86.4% 91.0% 73.3%
.500 or above in Conference 99.3% 99.8% 98.0%
Conference Champion 42.7% 48.8% 25.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round20.9% 22.3% 16.9%
Second Round0.8% 0.9% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Weber St. (Home) - 74.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 36 - 56 - 9
Quad 411 - 417 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 78 @Colorado L 78 - 84 17% -1  0 - 1 +5 +10 A+ F C -6 C C C-
 Sun, Nov 9 280 Denver L 73 - 75 83% +2  0 - 2 -12 -4 F B C -8 F F A+
 Wed, Nov 12 77 @Stanford L 68 - 77 17% -4  0 - 3 +2 -3 B D+ D- +6 A+ C C
 Sat, Nov 15 66 @Boise St. L 58 - 62 16% -2  0 - 4 +7 -2 C F B+ +9 A+ A+ F
 Fri, Nov 21 250 @Long Beach St. W 78 - 72 59% +3  1 - 4 +4 +6 C- C+ A+ -1 C+ C C-
 Sat, Nov 29 39 @Utah St. L 81 - 84 OT 8% -3  1 - 5 +13 +6 B- C- C +7 A A+ D-
 Wed, Dec 3 131 St. Thomas W 82 - 74 57% +1  2 - 5 +7 +11 C+ C- A+ -4 F A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 321 @Oral Roberts L 68 - 72 76% +6  2 - 6 -11 -2 C+ F F -10 B D- C
 Sat, Dec 13 195 @Oregon St. L 57 - 67 49% -4  2 - 7 -9 -11 F B+ F +1 A+ F C-
 Tue, Dec 16 281 @Cal Poly W 83 - 80 66% +3  3 - 7 -1 +6 F A+ A+ -7 A+ F F
 Thu, Jan 1 185 Northern Colorado W 89 - 75 69% +6  4 - 7 1 - 0 +9 +10 B+ A+ B+ -1 A F B
 Sat, Jan 3 315 Northern Arizona W 77 - 68 88% +7  5 - 7 2 - 0 -3 +5 B C A- -8 D C- F
 Thu, Jan 8 243 @Eastern Washington W 68 - 64 58% -0  6 - 7 3 - 0 +2 -1 C- D F +4 A+ C F
 Sat, Jan 10 183 @Idaho L 89 - 92 47% +9  6 - 8 3 - 1 -2 +18 A+ C D- -20 F A F
 Sat, Jan 17 161 Montana W 76 - 67 64% +0  7 - 8 4 - 1 +6 -0 C D C +6 B A+ B
 Mon, Jan 19 185 @Northern Colorado W 73 - 68 47% +4  8 - 8 5 - 1 +6 +4 B+ F B +2 A+ F C+
 Thu, Jan 22 219 Idaho St. W 74 - 62 75% +5  9 - 8 6 - 1 +6 +4 C B A+ +3 A+ F D
 Sat, Jan 24 217 Weber St. W 77 - 70 74%
 Thu, Jan 29 290 @Sacramento St. W 79 - 74 68%
 Sat, Jan 31 153 @Portland St. L 68 - 71 39%
 Thu, Feb 5 183 Idaho W 74 - 69 68%
 Sat, Feb 7 243 Eastern Washington W 78 - 70 78%
 Sat, Feb 14 161 @Montana L 73 - 75 42%
 Thu, Feb 19 217 @Weber St. W 74 - 73 53%
 Sat, Feb 21 219 @Idaho St. W 72 - 71 54%
 Thu, Feb 26 153 Portland St. W 71 - 68 61%
 Sat, Feb 28 290 Sacramento St. W 82 - 71 84%
 Mon, Mar 2 315 @Northern Arizona W 74 - 67 75%
Totals 16 - 12 13 - 5 +1 +0 C C- C+ +1 B D+ D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.6 7.9 14.2 11.9 5.5 1.4 42.7 1st
2nd 0.2 2.8 9.8 12.3 5.7 0.9 0.0 31.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 6.1 5.8 1.6 0.1 15.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.7 2.8 0.5 0.0 6.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 1.2 0.2 2.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.2 5.8 12.0 17.8 21.8 20.0 12.8 5.5 1.4 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 1.4    1.4
16-2 99.3% 5.5    5.3 0.2
15-3 92.8% 11.9    9.7 2.2 0.0
14-4 71.0% 14.2    8.8 5.0 0.4 0.0
13-5 36.4% 7.9    2.7 3.9 1.3 0.1
12-6 9.2% 1.6    0.2 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 42.7% 42.7 28.0 11.9 2.4 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 1.4% 42.9% 42.9% 12.3 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8
16-2 5.5% 36.3% 36.3% 13.1 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.6 0.0 3.5
15-3 12.8% 30.5% 30.5% 13.5 0.2 1.8 1.8 0.2 8.9
14-4 20.0% 24.8% 24.8% 13.9 0.1 1.3 2.9 0.7 15.0
13-5 21.8% 20.5% 20.5% 14.2 0.0 0.5 2.6 1.4 0.0 17.3
12-6 17.8% 16.0% 16.0% 14.6 0.1 1.1 1.6 0.1 14.9
11-7 12.0% 11.7% 11.7% 15.0 0.1 1.1 0.1 10.6
10-8 5.8% 9.4% 9.4% 15.5 0.3 0.3 5.3
9-9 2.2% 9.2% 9.2% 15.9 0.0 0.2 2.0
8-10 0.6% 6.1% 6.1% 16.0 0.0 0.5
7-11 0.1% 0.1
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 21.0% 21.0% 0.0% 14.0 79.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 12.3 7.5 60.0 28.3 4.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%