Montana St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating +1.0 147
Results Rating -0.2 160
Consistency 0.11 17
Pace 65.2 269
Improvement -0.2 192

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 152 C+ C- C+ D D
Defense C 154 C+ C- C- B- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% 358 C- 56% 231 -6.0 351
2 Pt. Jumpers 37% 183 B 43% 44 +2.6 51
Three Pointers 46% 63 B 37% 67 +4.8 39
Shot Selection/Accuracy D -1.1 317 B- +2.5 95
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.05 130
Second Chance D+ 27.6% 258 C+ 1.08 107 C- 0.30 207
Opponents' Steals C+ 8.9% 126
Other Turnovers C+ 6.9% 126
Turnovers C+ 15.8% 120
Freethrows D- 0.25 333 C+ 73% 178 D 0.19 312
Total Offense C +0.4 152

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots F 31% 355 C- 12.2% 256
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots F+ 9% 359 C+ 4.7% 171
Three Pointers F+ 73% 349 C+ 0.8% 167
Total F 42% 357 C+ 5.1% 124


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 24 B- 54% 80 +2.1 251
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 186 D 42% 311 +0.6 240
Three Pointers 35% 343 B- 33% 110 -4.0 27
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.5 267 C+ -1.7 112
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.00 134
Second Chance C 30.1% 174 D+ 1.09 273 C- 0.33 231
Turnovers from Steals C 9.5% 184
Other Turnovers D 6.2% 319
Turnovers C- 15.6% 244
Freethrows B 0.26 57 D- 76% 341 B- 0.20 93
Total Defense C +0.6 154

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B+ 39% 30 D+ 8.3% 287
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 29% 257 D 2.3% 321
Three Pointers B 78% 42 B- 1.4% 70
Total B+ 47% 26 D+ 4.7% 247

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.8 320 17.0 118
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 216 0.16 158
Consistency 0.10 35 0.10 40
Improvement +0.8 146 -1.0 244

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 155 145 129
Results Rating Rank 173 163 128
Conference Record 12 - 6 12 - 6 12 - 6
Conference Finish 2 2 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 14
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21% 32% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.9 n/a
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round21% 32% 0%
Second Round1% 1% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 38 - 58 - 9
Quad 48 - 416 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 67 @Colorado L 78 - 84 15% -1  39% 0 - 1 B- +6 B+ +8 A D- C+ C- -2 C+ C- C-
 Sun, Nov 9 245 Denver L 73 - 75 79% +2  67% 0 - 2 D -10 D -6 D- B+ C+ D+ -4 F F A+
 Wed, Nov 12 66 @Stanford L 68 - 77 15% -4  17% 0 - 3 C+ +3 D -6 B- C- D A +9 A C- C+
 Sat, Nov 15 60 @Boise St. L 58 - 62 14% -2  30% 0 - 4 B +8 D- -6 C- F B- A+ +14 A+ A+ D-
 Fri, Nov 21 268 @Long Beach St. W 78 - 72 65% +3  88% 1 - 4 C+ +3 C+ +2 D+ C+ A- C+ +1 C C D+
 Sat, Nov 29 41 @Utah St. L 81 - 84 OT 9% -3  8% 1 - 5 B+ +13 B- +4 C+ C- C A +10 A- A- D+
 Wed, Dec 3 112 St. Thomas W 82 - 74 52% +1  57% 2 - 5 B +8 B+ +8 C+ C A+ C+ +0 D- A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 318 @Oral Roberts L 68 - 72 77% +6  81% 2 - 6 D -11 D+ -4 C+ F+ F D- -7 B D- C
 Sat, Dec 13 160 @Oregon St. L 57 - 67 42% -4  4% 2 - 7 D+ -7 F -12 F B D B +4 A+ F C
 Tue, Dec 16 227 @Cal Poly W 83 - 80 57% +3  67% 3 - 7 C+ +2 B- +4 F+ A A C- -2 A+ F F
 Thu, Jan 1 149 Northern Colorado W 89 - 75 63% +6  90% 4 - 7 1 - 0 B+ +12 A- +9 B+ A+ B C+ +2 A- F C+
 Sat, Jan 3 316 Northern Arizona W 77 - 68 89% +7  78% 5 - 7 2 - 0 C- -4 C +1 C+ C A- D+ -4 D+ C- F+
 Thu, Jan 8 174 @Eastern Washington W 68 - 64 46% -0  41% 6 - 7 3 - 0 B- +6 D+ -3 C D+ F A +10 A+ A- D-
 Sat, Jan 10 181 @Idaho L 89 - 92 48% +9  90% 6 - 8 3 - 1 C -1 A+ +16 A+ C D- F -18 F B+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 205 Montana W 76 - 67 73% +0  51% 7 - 8 4 - 1 C+ +4 C- -2 D+ C- C+ B+ +5 B- A C+
 Mon, Jan 19 149 @Northern Colorado W 73 - 68 40% +4  71% 8 - 8 5 - 1 B +9 C+ +3 B+ F B- B+ +5 A F B-
 Thu, Jan 22 266 Idaho St. W 74 - 62 82% +5  85% 9 - 8 6 - 1 C+ +3 C +0 D+ B+ A B +4 B+ F+ D-
 Sat, Jan 24 211 Weber St. W 91 - 88 74% +2  63% 10 - 8 7 - 1 C- -3 A- +10 A+ B D+ F -13 F B F
 Thu, Jan 29 273 @Sacramento St. L 80 - 83 66% -3  22% 10 - 9 7 - 2 D+ -6 C- -1 C- D+ D+ D -6 F A+ C
 Sat, Jan 31 154 @Portland St. L 54 - 63 41% -3  23% 10 - 10 7 - 3 D+ -6 D- -8 F B- D- C+ +1 F A+ A-
 Thu, Feb 5 181 Idaho W 73 - 66 70% +9  89% 11 - 10 8 - 3 C+ +3 D- -8 F C+ B A +10 B- A+ B+
 Sat, Feb 7 174 Eastern Washington L 71 - 72 68% -2  25% 11 - 11 8 - 4 D+ -5 D+ -3 C F A+ C- -2 B F D+
 Sat, Feb 14 205 @Montana W 82 - 71 51% +3  66% 12 - 11 9 - 4 B+ +12 A +13 A F A+ C -1 C+ B- F
 Thu, Feb 19 211 @Weber St. L 79 - 82 OT 53% +0  40% 12 - 12 9 - 5 C- -3 C- -2 B- F C- C -1 C C- F+
 Sat, Feb 21 266 @Idaho St. L 76 - 91 65% -14  11% 12 - 13 9 - 6 F -18 D -6 D+ F A- F -12 F F C+
 Thu, Feb 26 154 Portland St. W 84 - 69 64% +11  98% 13 - 13 10 - 6 B+ +12 A- +11 A+ A+ B+ C+ +1 B- F B
 Sat, Feb 28 273 Sacramento St. W 82 - 61 83% +9  96% 14 - 13 11 - 6 B+ +12 B- +5 B+ A+ D- A- +8 A- A F
 Mon, Mar 2 316 @Northern Arizona W 76 - 65 76% +11  97% 15 - 13 12 - 6 C+ +4 B +6 C+ B A C+ +0 C- D D
Totals 15 - 13 12 - 6 +1 C +0 D B- D C +1 B C+ D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C- B B B- 29% 37% 46% D C+ D+ C+ C- C+ D- C+ D C B- D B- C+ 45% 20% 35% D+ C+ C D+ C- C- B D- B-
1.09 56% 43% 37% +2 -1 1.05 28% 1.1 .30 16% .25 73% .19 1.08 54% 42% 33% -2 +1 1.00 30% 1.1 .33 16% .26 76% .19
Nov
3		 Colorado B+ B A+ C+ A+ 40% 27% 33% C A D F D- C+ C- B+ C C- D+ F A+ B- 58% 20% 22% D- C+ D C+ C- C- F A- F
1.13 62% 64% 35% +9 -1 1.19 21% 0.8 .18 16% .29 76% .22 1.22 65% 56% 20% +3 +1 1.11 35% 0.9 .32 13% .65 69% .45
Nov
9		 Denver D B B+ F D- 34% 17% 49% C- D- D A+ B+ C+ F C+ F D+ F+ C+ F F 59% 27% 14% F F F F F A+ A+ A+ A+
1.14 67% 44% 27% -1 0 1.00 29% 1.7 .48 12% .12 71% .09 1.17 66% 38% 57% +9 +1 1.22 38% 1.3 .50 22% .20 60% .12
Nov
12		 Stanford D D A+ C- B 30% 28% 42% D B- F A+ C- D F F F A C A+ A+ A+ 48% 17% 35% B- A A+ F C- C+ C D+ C-
0.91 50% 53% 32% +1 -2 1.00 17% 1.5 .25 21% .22 54% .12 1.03 58% 22% 26% -7 +1 0.91 25% 1.4 .36 16% .34 76% .26
Nov
15		 Boise St. D- D+ D+ B+ C+ 25% 36% 40% F+ C- B- F F B- D- F F A+ A- A+ B+ A+ 27% 16% 58% B+ A+ A+ B- A+ D- D- F F
0.92 54% 37% 38% +1 -3 0.98 24% 0.3 .08 14% .20 55% .11 0.98 50% 14% 31% -9 0 0.84 21% 1.0 .21 13% .40 91% .36
Nov
21		 Long Beach St. C+ A D D+ C 32% 32% 36% F D+ D- A+ C+ A- D C- D C+ D- C+ D+ D+ 28% 46% 26% A+ C D A- C D+ D+ D+ D+
1.13 71% 35% 32% +2 -2 1.02 22% 1.7 .38 13% .32 74% .23 1.04 67% 36% 36% +2 -4 0.98 29% 0.9 .26 16% .29 76% .22
Nov
29		 Utah St. B- F+ A C+ B- 22% 22% 55% D C+ B- D- C- C C- A+ B A A+ F C- A+ 54% 7% 39% F+ A- A+ F+ A- D+ F+ B- D-
1.05 46% 46% 34% -1 -1 0.98 33% 0.9 .29 21% .29 89% .26 1.08 43% 75% 36% -4 +3 1.00 24% 1.3 .32 13% .39 69% .27
Dec
3		 St. Thomas B+ F C A+ B- 27% 17% 56% D C+ D+ B+ C A+ A+ C+ A+ C+ F C+ B D- 38% 6% 56% C- D- B- A+ A+ A+ C- C C-
1.21 46% 38% 41% +2 0 1.06 26% 1.3 .34 10% .48 76% .36 1.09 89% 33% 32% +10 +2 1.26 19% 0.4 .07 21% .30 69% .20
Dec
6		 Oral Roberts D+ A- A D B- 37% 12% 51% C- C+ A- F F+ F F+ C D- D- B- C- A+ B 51% 21% 28% D+ B F A- D- C F F F
1.06 67% 50% 32% +3 +1 1.10 40% 0.6 .26 22% .26 69% .18 1.12 50% 40% 23% -8 +1 0.87 41% 0.8 .32 19% .50 92% .46
Dec
13		 Oregon St. F F A+ F F 37% 18% 45% C- F D+ A+ B D D F F B B D A+ A+ 40% 18% 43% C- A+ A+ F F C F D- F
0.89 28% 56% 27% -12 0 0.78 28% 1.4 .38 17% .28 60% .17 1.04 50% 43% 18% -13 +1 0.78 18% 2.8 .50 17% .53 82% .43
Dec
16		 Cal Poly B- A+ F F F 30% 14% 55% C- F+ C A+ A A A+ D- A- C- A+ C- A+ A+ 45% 6% 49% D A+ F F F F F A F
1.16 76% 25% 23% -6 0 0.91 32% 1.5 .48 11% .39 68% .27 1.11 41% 33% 25% -15 +2 0.78 40% 1.6 .64 15% .51 71% .36
Jan
1		 Northern Colorado A- C+ A+ D A- 39% 18% 43% C- B+ D A+ A+ B D- D F+ C+ B- A+ C+ A 40% 19% 40% C A- F+ F F C+ C+ F D
1.24 59% 70% 29% +3 0 1.09 22% 2.4 .53 10% .28 72% .20 1.04 57% 20% 33% -4 0 0.94 32% 1.5 .47 18% .22 92% .20
Jan
3		 Northern Arizona C F A+ A B- 29% 13% 58% D+ C+ C C- C A- D A+ B- D+ C- D+ F D- 37% 42% 21% A+ D+ D+ C+ C- F+ A- B- B+
1.22 46% 67% 42% +8 0 1.18 33% 1.1 .37 13% .25 93% .24 1.08 58% 41% 45% +5 -3 1.06 26% 1.0 .26 13% .20 64% .13
Jan
8		 Eastern Washington D+ C B- B B- 31% 28% 41% F C A- F D+ F A+ B+ A+ A A+ F A+ A+ 48% 20% 32% D A+ D- A+ A- D- C- F F
1.05 58% 45% 38% +4 -2 1.08 41% 0.8 .33 26% .44 81% .36 0.99 38% 50% 25% -12 +1 0.80 36% 0.7 .26 15% .31 94% .29
Jan
10		 Idaho A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 46% 28% 26% C+ A+ B+ F C D- C+ A- B F F+ D+ F F 44% 14% 42% D F D A+ B+ F B+ F B-
1.30 65% 57% 54% +16 0 1.34 32% 0.9 .28 18% .37 81% .30 1.35 65% 38% 44% +9 +1 1.24 32% 0.7 .22 7% .22 79% .17
Jan
17		 Montana C- F+ D+ A+ C 30% 38% 32% F D+ D+ C C- C+ A- A- A B+ A+ F D+ A 58% 4% 38% F B- A+ B- A C+ B F C-
1.07 50% 35% 41% 0 -3 0.96 27% 1.0 .27 14% .36 77% .28 0.94 45% 100% 37% -4 +4 1.02 10% 1.0 .10 21% .25 93% .23
Jan
19		 Northern Colorado C+ F+ C A+ B+ 40% 10% 50% B- B+ F F F B- B- C B- B+ A+ B+ C+ A+ 51% 16% 33% D- A F B- F B- A+ A+ A+
1.11 48% 40% 42% +2 +2 1.10 15% 0.8 .12 11% .36 76% .27 1.04 46% 33% 33% -7 +1 0.91 44% 1.0 .44 18% .06 33% .02
Jan
22		 Idaho St. C F C+ A D+ 35% 22% 43% D+ D+ B B- B+ A F F F B C+ B A A 44% 7% 49% F B+ C+ F F+ D- D+ A+ B-
1.18 44% 45% 41% +1 0 1.04 34% 1.2 .40 10% .18 70% .12 0.99 55% 33% 27% -7 +2 0.93 31% 1.3 .41 14% .34 61% .21
Jan
24		 Weber St. A- B- A+ A+ A+ 35% 18% 47% C- A+ A- D+ B D+ B A+ A+ F A- F F F 61% 4% 35% F F A- C- B F B- F C
1.29 67% 56% 46% +14 0 1.31 38% 1.0 .38 17% .36 90% .32 1.25 48% 50% 58% +7 +4 1.24 25% 1.0 .25 11% .30 79% .24
Jan
29		 Sacramento St. C- F A+ A+ C 26% 20% 54% F C- C D- D+ D+ C D C- D D+ F F F 41% 30% 30% C F A+ A+ A+ C A+ C- A+
1.11 29% 55% 41% +2 -1 1.04 34% 1.0 .34 18% .32 68% .22 1.16 59% 63% 50% +15 -1 1.30 11% 0.7 .07 15% .23 79% .18
Jan
31		 Portland St. D- F A F F+ 24% 37% 39% F F B+ D B- D- F A+ D C+ D- F F F 44% 23% 33% B- F F+ A+ A+ A- B B- B
0.88 45% 47% 17% -10 -3 0.76 36% 0.9 .33 21% .27 85% .23 1.03 63% 50% 43% +9 0 1.21 37% 0.5 .17 23% .25 67% .17
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Idaho D- C D- F F 35% 44% 21% F F F A+ C+ B A+ A+ A+ A B- F A+ B+ 57% 16% 28% F B- A A+ A+ B+ A+ F A
1.00 59% 33% 20% -6 -3 0.83 13% 2.3 .30 12% .47 87% .41 0.91 52% 56% 25% -5 +2 0.97 21% 0.6 .12 19% .15 89% .14
Feb
7		 Eastern Washington D+ F A+ A- C 36% 18% 46% D+ C F F F A+ C+ D- C- C- A- B- F B+ 54% 22% 24% D- B F+ F F D+ A+ F A-
1.09 44% 56% 39% +2 0 1.06 21% 0.9 .18 8% .33 70% .23 1.11 48% 36% 42% -3 +1 0.98 37% 1.4 .52 17% .20 82% .17
Feb
14		 Montana A A+ C+ A+ A+ 21% 43% 36% F A F F+ F A+ B+ D B- C D- B B B- 37% 12% 51% D C+ C+ B- B- F C- F D-
1.24 82% 39% 47% +13 -4 1.19 18% 0.8 .15 8% .34 67% .23 1.08 67% 33% 32% +1 +1 1.06 20% 1.0 .20 15% .30 88% .27
Feb
19		 Weber St. C- A+ B F+ B 34% 26% 40% F+ B- F F F C- D+ B+ C- C D+ D- A C- 46% 30% 25% A C F+ B C- F+ B- D+ C+
1.09 83% 43% 29% +7 -1 1.13 19% 0.8 .16 16% .30 78% .23 1.13 62% 41% 29% 0 -1 1.02 37% 0.9 .33 12% .30 74% .22
Feb
21		 Idaho St. D D+ D A- C- 37% 27% 37% D- D+ F D F A- A C A F F A+ D+ F 49% 9% 42% F F D+ F F C+ C+ F D+
1.05 56% 38% 39% +2 -1 1.04 18% 1.0 .18 11% .42 78% .33 1.26 81% 20% 36% +11 +2 1.28 35% 1.7 .60 18% .29 88% .25
Feb
26		 Portland St. A- B- C+ A+ A+ 31% 16% 53% C A+ F A+ A+ B+ F C- F C+ A+ A- F B 50% 15% 35% D- B- C- F F B B A+ A-
1.19 60% 38% 50% +13 0 1.29 14% 3.3 .45 16% .25 73% .19 0.98 29% 29% 53% -6 +2 0.94 32% 1.7 .55 21% .25 57% .14
Feb
28		 Sacramento St. B- A+ F+ B A- 28% 12% 60% D+ B+ A+ A A+ D- F F F A- A+ C+ D+ A+ 42% 22% 36% D- A- A+ F A F A A+ A+
1.24 79% 33% 37% +8 0 1.18 45% 1.4 .61 20% .22 42% .09 0.92 30% 33% 35% -12 0 0.78 10% 1.8 .18 5% .27 65% .17
Mar
2		 Northern Arizona B A B- B- B- 23% 15% 62% D- C+ D- A+ B A D- F F C+ A+ F C C- 35% 25% 39% C+ C- D+ D+ D D A+ F A-
1.25 73% 43% 38% +8 0 1.17 27% 1.6 .43 11% .24 62% .15 1.07 39% 69% 35% +2 -1 1.04 26% 1.1 .29 15% .15 75% .12



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 100.0 100.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 100.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 100.0% 20.7% 20.7% 13.9 0.2 4.4 12.5 3.6 0.0 79.3
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 20.7% 20.7% 0.0% 13.9 79.3 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 20.7% 100.0% 13.9 1.1 21.1 60.4 17.3 0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 14.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 29.6%
Lose Out 35.3%