Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
141 Montana St. 29.4%   15   4 - 7 0 - 0 17 - 13 13 - 5 +0.9      +1.6 126 -0.7 191 67.6 217 -3.9 235 0.0 1
197 Northern Colorado 17.1%   4 - 5 0 - 0 16 - 12 11 - 7 -1.6      +0.6 151 -2.2 240 74.5 55 +1.0 156 0.0 1
208 Weber St. 14.2%   3 - 6 0 - 0 14 - 15 10 - 8 -2.2      +0.2 167 -2.5 251 64.4 298 -3.5 226 0.0 1
215 Montana 13.4%   4 - 5 0 - 0 14 - 14 10 - 8 -2.5      +0.3 162 -2.8 260 70.7 131 +2.0 136 0.0 1
251 Idaho St. 6.4%   2 - 6 0 - 0 11 - 15 9 - 9 -5.0      -4.7 301 -0.2 175 63.2 321 -7.1 288 0.0 1
254 Eastern Washington 6.0%   2 - 9 0 - 0 11 - 18 9 - 9 -5.1      +0.3 161 -5.4 334 70.4 144 -7.2 290 0.0 1
260 Portland St. 5.5%   4 - 5 0 - 0 13 - 15 8 - 10 -5.4      -1.6 216 -3.8 292 72.6 82 -3.0 217 0.0 1
279 Idaho 3.7%   2 - 8 0 - 0 10 - 19 8 - 10 -6.6      -1.0 200 -5.5 337 64.1 308 -7.2 291 0.0 1
285 Northern Arizona 3.6%   4 - 4 0 - 0 12 - 15 7 - 11 -6.8      -1.6 217 -5.1 327 68.0 210 -4.9 247 0.0 1
335 Sacramento St. 0.8%   1 - 9 0 - 0 6 - 22 5 - 13 -10.4      -7.6 354 -2.8 264 62.3 340 -17.7 358 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Montana St. 2.4 44.1 21.8 12.8 8.5 5.4 3.4 2.1 1.2 0.6 0.2
Northern Colorado 3.5 22.4 19.3 16.0 12.5 9.6 7.5 5.6 3.8 2.2 1.0
Weber St. 3.9 17.8 17.6 15.5 13.1 10.8 8.6 6.9 5.0 3.2 1.5
Montana 4.0 16.2 16.7 15.2 13.4 11.2 9.3 7.2 5.5 3.6 1.8
Idaho St. 5.4 6.8 9.0 10.8 11.9 12.5 12.1 11.5 11.0 9.0 5.5
Eastern Washington 5.5 5.8 8.2 10.5 12.1 12.8 12.9 12.4 11.2 8.8 5.3
Portland St. 5.7 5.3 7.9 10.0 11.1 12.0 13.1 12.3 11.7 10.0 6.7
Idaho 6.4 3.1 5.2 7.3 9.3 10.9 12.5 13.8 14.2 13.8 9.9
Northern Arizona 6.4 3.2 5.1 7.2 8.8 10.6 11.7 13.2 14.5 14.5 11.1
Sacramento St. 8.3 0.4 1.0 1.8 2.7 4.2 6.7 9.9 14.1 21.4 37.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Montana St. 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 3.3 5.7 8.6 11.9 14.7 15.7 14.8 11.4 7.0 3.2 0.8
Northern Colorado 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 3.2 5.3 7.9 10.6 12.7 14.1 13.9 11.9 8.8 5.3 2.7 1.0 0.2
Weber St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.2 4.3 6.7 9.1 11.9 13.4 13.8 12.5 10.5 7.2 4.2 1.9 0.6 0.1
Montana 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.5 4.8 7.0 9.9 12.3 13.4 13.6 12.5 9.9 6.3 3.6 1.6 0.5 0.1
Idaho St. 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.1 3.9 6.6 9.6 11.7 13.3 13.4 12.1 10.1 7.0 4.6 2.6 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
Eastern Washington 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.9 3.8 6.5 9.9 12.4 13.9 14.3 12.4 9.8 6.7 4.1 2.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Portland St. 8 - 10 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.5 4.6 7.4 10.2 12.7 13.8 13.4 11.5 9.1 6.5 3.8 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1
Idaho 8 - 10 0.1 0.5 1.7 3.6 6.8 10.4 12.6 14.0 13.8 12.4 9.8 6.4 4.3 2.2 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 7 - 11 0.1 0.6 2.0 4.4 7.5 10.3 12.5 13.9 13.1 11.8 9.2 6.6 4.0 2.2 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Sacramento St. 5 - 13 1.0 4.2 8.6 13.0 15.8 15.8 13.5 10.9 7.6 4.5 2.7 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Montana St. 44.1% 32.0 9.6 2.2 0.4 0.0 0.0
Northern Colorado 22.4% 14.3 6.1 1.6 0.3 0.0
Weber St. 17.8% 10.9 5.0 1.5 0.3 0.0
Montana 16.2% 9.8 4.6 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
Idaho St. 6.8% 3.7 2.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Eastern Washington 5.8% 2.9 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Portland St. 5.3% 2.7 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Idaho 3.1% 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 3.2% 1.6 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Sacramento St. 0.4% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Montana St. 29.4% 29.4% 0.0% 15   0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 4.6 8.8 9.7 5.2 70.6 0.0%
Northern Colorado 17.1% 17.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.3 5.2 6.1 3.0 83.0 0.0%
Weber St. 14.2% 14.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.1 5.3 4.6 85.8 0.0%
Montana 13.4% 13.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.6 5.3 2.9 86.6 0.0%
Idaho St. 6.4% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.8 3.8 93.6 0.0%
Eastern Washington 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.2 4.5 94.0 0.0%
Portland St. 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.0 94.5 0.0%
Idaho 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 3.0 96.3 0.0%
Northern Arizona 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.5 96.4 0.0%
Sacramento St. 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.8 99.2 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Montana St. 29.4% 2.2% 28.6% 1.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Colorado 17.1% 1.0% 16.6% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Weber St. 14.2% 2.4% 13.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana 13.4% 1.3% 12.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho St. 6.4% 2.5% 5.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Washington 6.0% 3.6% 4.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland St. 5.5% 1.7% 4.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho 3.7% 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Arizona 3.6% 1.4% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacramento St. 0.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 91.4% 0.9 8.6 91.4
2nd Round 4.0% 0.0 96.0 4.0
Sweet Sixteen 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0