Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
153 Northern Colorado 19.2%   14   6 - 2 0 - 0 18 - 10 11 - 7 +0.6      +1.6 124 -1.0 202 70.8 152 +5.6 96 0.0 1
161 Idaho St. 16.9%   4 - 5 0 - 0 15 - 13 11 - 7 0.0      -0.3 171 +0.2 159 62.5 344 +0.4 159 0.0 1
167 Idaho 14.5%   4 - 4 0 - 0 15 - 13 10 - 8 -0.7      +2.2 116 -2.9 272 66.0 275 +2.0 138 0.0 1
169 Montana St. 13.2%   3 - 7 0 - 0 13 - 15 10 - 8 -0.8      -1.0 192 +0.2 158 65.2 294 -4.0 227 0.0 1
176 Portland St. 13.5%   3 - 4 0 - 0 13 - 13 10 - 8 -1.1      -3.4 260 +2.3 100 70.4 159 -1.8 195 0.0 1
202 Montana 7.6%   3 - 5 0 - 0 12 - 15 9 - 9 -2.8      0.0 168 -2.8 268 72.9 89 -4.4 238 0.0 1
212 Weber St. 6.4%   4 - 6 0 - 0 13 - 16 8 - 10 -3.3      -1.1 194 -2.3 247 71.0 139 -4.1 230 0.0 1
248 Eastern Washington 3.6%   1 - 9 0 - 0 8 - 22 7 - 11 -5.1      -0.1 169 -5.0 333 72.1 108 -14.2 343 0.0 1
269 Northern Arizona 2.7%   3 - 6 0 - 0 10 - 18 7 - 11 -5.8      -4.3 287 -1.5 222 66.6 264 -5.9 255 0.0 1
284 Sacramento St. 2.4%   1 - 6 0 - 0 8 - 19 6 - 12 -6.5      -4.2 286 -2.3 246 76.2 36 -9.0 300 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Tue, Dec 16 153 Northern Colorado 90 27 Texas Tech 101   
Tue, Dec 16 252 Cal Poly 80 169 Montana St. 83   
Wed, Dec 17 65 Colorado 84 176 Portland St. 73   
Wed, Dec 17 248 Eastern Washington 63 150 Washington St. 78   
Wed, Dec 17 82 Utah Valley 90 212 Weber St. 74   
Thu, Dec 18 269 Northern Arizona 65 317 Southern Utah 57   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Dec 20 176 Portland St. 71 199 Tulane 73 56%   
Sat, Dec 20 263 Utah Tech 71 212 Weber St. 76 69%   
Sat, Dec 20 248 Eastern Washington 75 118 Utah 86 85%   
Sat, Dec 20 126 California Baptist 80 284 Sacramento St. 68 86%   
Sat, Dec 20 14 Louisville 94 202 Montana 71 97%   
Sat, Dec 20 315 Denver 75 153 Northern Colorado 87 88%   
Sun, Dec 21 161 Idaho St. 71 198 UC Davis 66 70%   
Sun, Dec 21 252 Cal Poly 82 167 Idaho 83 56%   
Sun, Dec 21 269 Northern Arizona 66 175 Incarnate Word 74 77%   
Mon, Dec 22 218 Cal St. Northridge 85 284 Sacramento St. 79 72%   
Mon, Dec 22 9 BYU 92 248 Eastern Washington 64 99%   
Tue, Dec 23 314 Cal St. Bakersfield 73 167 Idaho 78 69%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Northern Colorado 3.4 27.5 18.6 14.4 11.0 9.0 7.0 5.4 3.6 2.4 1.1
Idaho St. 3.7 23.1 17.7 14.5 12.1 9.6 8.1 6.0 4.3 3.0 1.5
Idaho 4.1 18.6 15.7 14.1 12.4 10.6 9.1 7.7 5.5 4.0 2.3
Montana St. 4.1 17.4 15.8 14.3 12.6 11.2 9.5 7.4 5.6 4.0 2.2
Portland St. 4.2 17.5 15.0 13.4 12.0 10.6 9.3 7.9 6.5 5.0 2.9
Montana 5.3 8.5 9.9 11.5 11.2 11.8 11.3 11.0 10.1 8.6 6.1
Weber St. 5.6 6.6 8.5 10.1 11.1 11.8 12.0 11.9 11.4 9.5 7.0
Eastern Washington 6.6 3.0 4.8 6.4 7.9 9.8 11.3 12.9 14.9 15.5 13.5
Northern Arizona 7.1 2.3 3.6 5.0 6.8 8.6 10.4 12.7 15.1 16.9 18.6
Sacramento St. 7.4 2.0 3.0 4.3 5.7 7.0 9.5 11.6 14.5 18.3 24.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Northern Colorado 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 3.0 5.0 7.8 10.1 12.5 13.9 13.6 12.1 9.2 6.0 3.1 1.2 0.2
Idaho St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.8 3.6 5.8 8.7 11.1 13.2 13.8 13.1 11.3 8.0 4.7 2.4 0.8 0.2
Idaho 10 - 8 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.9 4.6 7.3 10.0 12.3 13.2 13.3 12.2 9.4 6.5 3.7 1.8 0.6 0.1
Montana St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.9 4.7 7.3 10.4 12.6 13.9 13.8 11.6 9.3 6.1 3.5 1.4 0.5 0.1
Portland St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.9 3.4 5.5 7.9 10.4 12.0 13.2 12.6 11.2 8.8 6.0 3.7 1.7 0.5 0.1
Montana 9 - 9 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.5 6.2 9.0 11.3 12.8 13.2 12.6 10.6 7.8 4.9 2.7 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
Weber St. 8 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.1 4.4 7.0 10.1 12.3 13.7 13.8 11.8 9.7 6.7 4.0 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Eastern Washington 7 - 11 0.1 0.7 2.1 4.7 7.7 11.4 13.5 14.4 13.2 11.2 8.5 6.1 3.4 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 7 - 11 0.2 1.3 3.1 6.4 9.5 12.5 13.8 14.2 12.6 10.1 6.9 4.6 2.5 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Sacramento St. 6 - 12 0.4 1.9 4.7 8.1 11.1 13.6 13.8 13.2 11.3 8.4 5.7 3.7 2.3 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Northern Colorado 27.5% 18.4 6.9 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
Idaho St. 23.1% 14.9 6.1 1.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Idaho 18.6% 11.5 5.2 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
Montana St. 17.4% 10.6 5.1 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
Portland St. 17.5% 11.1 4.7 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
Montana 8.5% 4.8 2.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Weber St. 6.6% 3.4 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Eastern Washington 3.0% 1.5 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 2.3% 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Sacramento St. 2.0% 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Northern Colorado 19.2% 19.2% 0.0% 14   0.0 0.0 0.2 2.1 6.3 6.7 3.4 0.5 80.8 0.0%
Idaho St. 16.9% 16.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.8 6.0 4.8 1.3 83.1 0.0%
Idaho 14.5% 14.5% 0.0% 0.1 0.8 3.4 5.3 3.8 1.1 85.5 0.0%
Montana St. 13.2% 13.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.5 4.7 3.1 86.8 0.0%
Portland St. 13.5% 13.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.4 4.5 4.4 1.6 86.5 0.0%
Montana 7.6% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.9 2.8 2.1 92.4 0.0%
Weber St. 6.4% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.5 2.2 93.6 0.0%
Eastern Washington 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 3.2 96.4 0.0%
Northern Arizona 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.7 97.3 0.0%
Sacramento St. 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 97.6 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Northern Colorado 19.2% 0.1% 19.2% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho St. 16.9% 0.6% 16.6% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho 14.5% 0.5% 14.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana St. 13.2% 1.8% 12.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland St. 13.5% 0.7% 13.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana 7.6% 1.3% 7.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Weber St. 6.4% 1.2% 5.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Washington 3.6% 2.9% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Arizona 2.7% 1.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacramento St. 2.4% 1.3% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 95.5% 1.0 4.5 95.5
2nd Round 4.2% 0.0 95.8 4.2
Sweet Sixteen 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0