Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
151 Northern Colorado 17.4%   14   5 - 1 0 - 0 18 - 10 11 - 7 +0.3      +0.1 159 +0.2 166 70.8 150 +4.4 111 0.0 1
152 Montana St. 16.3%   2 - 5 0 - 0 14 - 14 11 - 7 +0.1      -0.2 168 +0.3 160 65.5 287 -3.6 224 0.0 1
156 Portland St. 16.6%   3 - 2 0 - 0 15 - 11 11 - 7 0.0      -2.4 231 +2.4 99 73.6 86 +3.5 124 0.0 1
167 Idaho St. 12.7%   3 - 4 0 - 0 14 - 14 10 - 8 -0.9      -1.3 200 +0.4 158 62.0 351 +0.1 173 0.0 1
187 Idaho 9.7%   3 - 3 0 - 0 14 - 14 9 - 9 -2.0      +0.5 149 -2.5 254 66.0 273 -1.2 190 0.0 1
192 Weber St. 9.1%   3 - 4 0 - 0 14 - 15 9 - 9 -2.2      -0.2 170 -2.0 235 71.5 135 -4.8 237 0.0 1
197 Montana 8.9%   2 - 5 0 - 0 12 - 15 9 - 9 -2.4      0.0 162 -2.4 248 74.1 73 -5.3 242 0.0 1
251 Eastern Washington 3.8%   0 - 7 0 - 0 9 - 21 7 - 11 -5.0      0.0 161 -5.0 334 71.3 140 -12.5 331 0.0 1
263 Northern Arizona 3.1%   2 - 3 0 - 0 10 - 18 7 - 11 -5.7      -2.4 233 -3.3 282 66.6 260 -3.8 225 0.0 1
274 Sacramento St. 2.5%   1 - 6 0 - 0 8 - 19 7 - 11 -6.2      -3.9 274 -2.3 242 76.7 37 -8.2 287 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Tue, Dec 2 28 Baylor 110 274 Sacramento St. 88   
Wed, Dec 3 152 Montana St. 82 166 St. Thomas 74   
Wed, Dec 3 151 Northern Colorado 75 252 Nebraska Omaha 70   
Wed, Dec 3 197 Montana 72 149 North Dakota St. 81   
Wed, Dec 3 291 Denver 93 251 Eastern Washington 89   
Wed, Dec 3 167 Idaho St. 68 339 UMKC 59   
Wed, Dec 3 156 Portland St. 77 276 South Dakota 71   
Wed, Dec 3 263 Northern Arizona 62 147 South Dakota St. 75   
Wed, Dec 3 187 Idaho 90 340 North Dakota 58   
Wed, Dec 3 311 Oral Roberts 66 192 Weber St. 92   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Dec 6 187 Idaho 69 147 South Dakota St. 75 71%   
Sat, Dec 6 252 Nebraska Omaha 72 156 Portland St. 80 78%   
Sat, Dec 6 149 North Dakota St. 76 263 Northern Arizona 66 81%   
Sat, Dec 6 151 Northern Colorado 85 276 South Dakota 76 81%   
Sat, Dec 6 291 Denver 67 167 Idaho St. 76 81%   
Sat, Dec 6 152 Montana St. 78 311 Oral Roberts 72 70%   
Sat, Dec 6 251 Eastern Washington 81 339 UMKC 71 81%   
Sat, Dec 6 197 Montana 80 340 North Dakota 74 71%   
Sun, Dec 7 166 St. Thomas 78 192 Weber St. 74 67%   
Tue, Dec 9 82 Arizona St. 83 263 Northern Arizona 67 92%   
Wed, Dec 10 167 Idaho St. 63 90 Utah Valley 72 82%   
Wed, Dec 10 187 Idaho 63 56 Notre Dame 78 91%   
Wed, Dec 10 339 UMKC 72 192 Weber St. 78 71%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Northern Colorado 3.7 23.6 17.4 14.0 11.5 9.5 7.8 6.2 4.7 3.4 1.8
Montana St. 3.7 22.3 17.6 14.4 11.9 9.7 8.0 6.4 4.9 3.0 1.7
Portland St. 3.8 22.6 16.4 13.7 11.4 10.1 8.2 6.4 5.3 3.7 2.3
Idaho St. 4.5 15.1 13.5 13.3 12.6 11.4 9.7 8.5 7.0 5.4 3.6
Idaho 4.8 13.2 12.4 12.5 11.1 11.5 10.7 9.4 8.1 6.7 4.4
Weber St. 5.0 10.3 11.4 12.1 11.6 11.5 11.5 10.4 9.0 7.4 4.9
Montana 5.1 9.9 11.3 11.5 11.7 11.7 11.5 10.4 9.1 7.6 5.3
Eastern Washington 6.6 3.4 5.0 6.3 8.1 9.6 10.8 12.3 14.8 15.2 14.4
Northern Arizona 7.0 3.1 4.4 5.2 6.9 8.0 10.0 11.9 13.9 16.4 20.2
Sacramento St. 7.3 1.9 3.3 4.6 5.8 7.6 10.0 12.1 15.3 17.7 21.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Northern Colorado 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.1 4.1 6.0 8.0 11.2 12.4 12.9 13.0 10.9 7.8 5.8 2.7 1.1 0.2
Montana St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.0 4.1 6.2 8.8 10.7 12.9 13.5 12.8 10.8 8.3 5.0 2.4 0.9 0.1
Portland St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.5 4.1 6.4 8.7 11.5 12.5 12.5 11.9 10.7 7.6 5.3 2.7 1.1 0.3
Idaho St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.3 3.8 6.0 8.6 10.8 12.4 13.5 12.7 10.2 7.6 5.5 3.0 1.5 0.5 0.1
Idaho 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 2.7 4.8 6.9 9.5 11.7 12.4 12.7 11.5 9.5 7.4 4.7 2.5 1.3 0.4 0.1
Weber St. 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.1 5.5 7.9 10.5 12.4 12.8 12.8 11.3 8.6 6.0 3.9 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.0
Montana 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.5 3.4 5.7 8.2 10.2 12.7 13.2 12.4 11.0 8.4 5.8 3.5 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.0
Eastern Washington 7 - 11 0.2 0.9 2.5 5.4 8.2 11.2 12.9 13.5 12.4 10.9 8.8 5.7 3.8 2.2 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0
Northern Arizona 7 - 11 0.4 1.7 4.0 7.1 9.9 11.8 13.2 12.6 11.8 9.3 7.0 4.9 3.2 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Sacramento St. 7 - 11 0.4 1.9 4.3 7.7 10.9 12.6 13.3 14.0 11.7 8.4 6.3 4.1 2.6 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Northern Colorado 23.6% 15.7 6.1 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
Montana St. 22.3% 14.5 5.9 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Portland St. 22.6% 15.0 5.8 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
Idaho St. 15.1% 9.5 4.2 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
Idaho 13.2% 8.0 3.8 1.1 0.3 0.0
Weber St. 10.3% 6.2 3.0 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0
Montana 9.9% 5.8 2.9 0.9 0.2 0.1
Eastern Washington 3.4% 1.9 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 3.1% 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Sacramento St. 1.9% 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Northern Colorado 17.4% 17.4% 0.0% 14   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.2 6.0 3.3 0.7 82.6 0.0%
Montana St. 16.3% 16.3% 0.0% 0.1 0.8 3.2 5.3 4.6 2.3 83.7 0.0%
Portland St. 16.6% 16.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.6 5.3 3.5 0.9 83.4 0.0%
Idaho St. 12.7% 12.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 2.6 4.2 3.8 1.5 87.3 0.0%
Idaho 9.7% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.1 3.1 1.5 90.3 0.0%
Weber St. 9.1% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.7 3.2 2.0 90.9 0.0%
Montana 8.9% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.2 3.1 2.6 91.1 0.0%
Eastern Washington 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0.1 0.3 0.7 2.8 96.2 0.0%
Northern Arizona 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.3 96.9 0.0%
Sacramento St. 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.7 97.5 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Northern Colorado 17.4% 0.1% 17.3% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana St. 16.3% 1.3% 15.9% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland St. 16.6% 0.5% 16.4% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho St. 12.7% 0.8% 12.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho 9.7% 0.7% 9.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Weber St. 9.1% 1.1% 8.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana 8.9% 1.6% 8.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Washington 3.8% 2.4% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Arizona 3.1% 0.8% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacramento St. 2.5% 1.4% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 95.9% 1.0 4.1 95.9
2nd Round 4.5% 0.0 95.5 4.5
Sweet Sixteen 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0