Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
154 Northern Colorado 32.6%   15   14 - 6 9 - 1 20 - 8 15 - 3 +0.7      +2.8 99 -2.1 235 72.6 77 +4.1 104 +8.0 1
189 Montana St. 17.1%   9 - 13 5 - 5 14 - 16 10 - 8 -1.3      -0.6 188 -0.8 198 66.6 225 -4.1 232 -4.6 6
207 Montana 15.3%   12 - 8 8 - 2 16 - 12 12 - 6 -2.3      +0.8 158 -3.1 266 68.3 182 +2.2 134 +2.6 2
215 Portland St. 11.6%   10 - 9 5 - 4 15 - 13 10 - 8 -3.0      -2.6 242 -0.4 184 71.4 97 -2.3 208 -3.0 3
234 Idaho St. 7.3%   7 - 11 5 - 5 11 - 15 9 - 9 -4.2      -1.4 217 -2.8 258 63.5 306 -5.8 259 -4.6 5
249 Idaho 5.1%   8 - 13 5 - 5 12 - 17 9 - 9 -5.2      +1.2 144 -6.5 345 64.5 285 -5.0 248 -4.1 4
250 Northern Arizona 4.7%   9 - 10 4 - 6 13 - 14 8 - 10 -5.3      -2.3 235 -3.0 262 68.8 164 -4.7 246 -6.4 7
252 Eastern Washington 3.9%   5 - 16 3 - 7 9 - 20 7 - 11 -5.3      -3.2 256 -2.1 237 69.9 133 -7.8 295 -8.2 8
286 Weber St. 2.2%   6 - 15 3 - 7 9 - 20 6 - 12 -6.8      -2.1 232 -4.7 306 64.6 279 -7.4 288 -9.3 9
337 Sacramento St. 0.3%   3 - 16 2 - 7 5 - 23 4 - 14 -11.5      -7.9 351 -3.6 281 62.4 332 -13.8 346 -11.6 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Northern Colorado 1.1 88.9 9.8 1.1 0.2 0.0
Montana St. 3.9 1.4 13.3 32.3 23.6 14.9 8.5 3.9 1.6 0.5 0.1
Montana 2.0 20.3 61.8 12.7 3.7 1.2 0.2 0.1
Portland St. 3.8 2.3 17.4 30.3 20.7 13.4 8.2 4.7 2.3 0.7 0.1
Idaho St. 4.9 0.3 5.7 17.5 21.7 20.3 16.3 10.8 5.4 1.9 0.1
Idaho 5.2 0.3 3.0 15.2 19.5 21.2 18.8 12.9 6.6 2.5 0.2
Northern Arizona 6.1 0.0 1.6 7.2 11.1 15.4 19.1 21.1 16.2 7.3 0.9
Eastern Washington 7.1 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.2 10.6 15.7 21.5 24.0 17.5 3.4
Weber St. 7.9 0.1 0.9 2.3 4.9 8.8 14.7 24.4 36.1 7.9
Sacramento St. 9.6 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.5 6.4 17.8 71.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Northern Colorado 15 - 3 0.0 0.3 1.4 5.4 13.7 23.2 28.4 20.0 7.7
Montana St. 10 - 8 0.1 0.9 3.6 11.2 21.1 27.7 22.1 11.0 2.4
Montana 12 - 6 0.2 1.8 7.2 16.8 25.5 25.3 16.4 5.8 1.0
Portland St. 10 - 8 0.1 1.0 4.6 11.3 19.3 23.7 21.0 12.9 5.0 1.0
Idaho St. 9 - 9 0.4 3.6 10.6 21.1 26.8 21.8 11.4 3.7 0.5
Idaho 9 - 9 0.6 4.7 13.1 24.0 26.9 19.2 9.2 2.0 0.3
Northern Arizona 8 - 10 0.8 4.6 13.1 22.0 26.0 19.3 10.3 3.3 0.6
Eastern Washington 7 - 11 0.5 3.0 10.3 21.5 26.5 23.3 11.7 3.0 0.4
Weber St. 6 - 12 1.8 9.3 20.8 26.6 22.8 12.8 4.8 1.0 0.1
Sacramento St. 4 - 14 12.4 26.8 27.5 19.3 9.3 3.6 1.0 0.2 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Northern Colorado 88.9% 77.2 10.8 0.9 0.1
Montana St. 1.4% 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1
Montana 20.3% 9.7 9.6 0.9 0.1
Portland St. 2.3% 0.6 1.3 0.4 0.1
Idaho St. 0.3% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
Idaho 0.3% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
Northern Arizona 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Eastern Washington 0.0% 0.0
Weber St.
Sacramento St.


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Northern Colorado 32.6% 32.6% 0.0% 15   0.1 2.2 9.1 14.4 6.5 0.4 67.4 0.0%
Montana St. 17.1% 17.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 1.3 7.0 8.3 82.9 0.0%
Montana 15.3% 15.3% 0.0% 0.1 0.4 2.8 8.5 3.5 84.7 0.0%
Portland St. 11.6% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.8 4.5 6.1 88.5 0.0%
Idaho St. 7.3% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.1 92.7 0.0%
Idaho 5.1% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 4.5 94.9 0.0%
Northern Arizona 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 0.1 0.9 3.7 95.3 0.0%
Eastern Washington 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0 3.9 96.1 0.0%
Weber St. 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 2.2 97.8 0.0%
Sacramento St. 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3 99.7 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Northern Colorado 32.6% 0.0% 32.6% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana St. 17.1% 4.4% 15.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana 15.3% 0.6% 15.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland St. 11.6% 2.0% 10.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho St. 7.3% 3.3% 5.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho 5.1% 3.7% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Arizona 4.7% 2.2% 3.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Washington 3.9% 3.8% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Weber St. 2.2% 2.2% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacramento St. 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 90.7% 0.9 9.3 90.7
2nd Round 2.7% 0.0 97.3 2.7
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0