Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
149 Portland St. 24.4%   15   11 - 6 8 - 1 +0.7      -4.4 284 +5.0 54 70.2 143 +2.4 125 +8.0 1
158 Montana 20.0%   10 - 9 7 - 3 -0.1      -0.7 184 +0.6 144 71.6 102 -0.3 169 +1.8 3
166 Montana St. 17.2%   10 - 10 7 - 3 -0.5      -0.2 168 -0.3 174 65.2 273 -0.9 186 +1.9 2
185 Idaho 12.2%   10 - 9 5 - 4 -1.6      -0.1 163 -1.5 236 67.1 229 -0.9 184 -2.3 5
190 Northern Colorado 7.2%   10 - 10 3 - 7 -2.1      +0.6 146 -2.7 259 70.8 127 -2.5 203 -8.0 9
221 Weber St. 7.0%   9 - 11 5 - 4 -3.3      -0.1 164 -3.2 276 71.8 96 -4.1 231 -2.1 4
227 Idaho St. 5.4%   7 - 12 3 - 6 -3.6      +0.2 155 -3.8 290 63.6 316 -4.5 235 -6.8 8
245 Eastern Washington 3.7%   4 - 17 3 - 6 -4.7      -0.3 173 -4.4 306 69.5 162 -9.1 311 -6.4 7
274 Sacramento St. 2.4%   5 - 13 4 - 5 -6.3      -2.3 233 -4.0 294 76.4 24 -5.4 251 -3.5 6
313 Northern Arizona 0.4%   5 - 15 2 - 8 -9.0      -2.2 229 -6.8 346 63.2 324 -8.9 308 -10.8 10


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Thu, Jan 29 185 Idaho 83 190 Northern Colorado 91   
Thu, Jan 29 158 Montana 64 149 Portland St. 60   
Thu, Jan 29 166 Montana St. 80 274 Sacramento St. 83   
Thu, Jan 29 245 Eastern Washington 86 313 Northern Arizona 92   
Sat, Jan 31 166 Montana St. 54 149 Portland St. 63   
Sat, Jan 31 245 Eastern Washington 71 190 Northern Colorado 74   
Sat, Jan 31 227 Idaho St. 79 221 Weber St. 81   
Sat, Jan 31 158 Montana 79 274 Sacramento St. 86   
Sat, Jan 31 185 Idaho 79 313 Northern Arizona 62   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Mon, Feb 2 227 Idaho St. 66 149 Portland St. 73 76%   
Mon, Feb 2 274 Sacramento St. 83 221 Weber St. 82 50%   
Thu, Feb 5 185 Idaho 70 166 Montana St. 74 66%   
Thu, Feb 5 190 Northern Colorado 79 221 Weber St. 81 57%   
Thu, Feb 5 245 Eastern Washington 74 158 Montana 81 77%   
Thu, Feb 5 227 Idaho St. 76 313 Northern Arizona 68 79%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Portland St. 1.4 74.1 16.9 6.6 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Montana 2.4 24.1 36.7 24.6 9.6 3.4 1.1 0.4 0.1
Montana St. 2.4 21.8 34.5 28.2 10.7 3.5 1.1 0.3 0.1
Idaho 4.1 3.6 10.7 20.4 29.7 18.8 9.1 4.5 2.3 0.9 0.1
Northern Colorado 6.7 0.0 0.3 2.1 7.8 14.3 20.5 20.2 18.2 14.3 2.3
Weber St. 4.7 2.0 6.8 13.9 24.3 23.7 14.2 8.6 4.7 1.6 0.2
Idaho St. 6.7 0.1 0.6 3.1 8.4 14.0 19.7 19.0 17.0 15.3 2.8
Eastern Washington 7.0 0.0 0.4 2.0 6.1 11.6 17.4 19.3 20.3 19.0 3.9
Sacramento St. 6.6 0.1 0.9 3.2 8.5 14.5 19.1 19.6 17.9 14.0 2.0
Northern Arizona 9.5 0.1 0.3 1.4 2.7 6.5 16.5 72.5

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Portland St. 14 - 4 17 - 9 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.7 13.8 22.1 24.3 19.5 9.7 2.3
Montana 12 - 6 15 - 12 0.1 1.1 4.3 11.2 20.8 25.8 22.1 12.1 2.7
Montana St. 12 - 6 15 - 13 0.2 0.9 4.7 12.4 21.8 26.6 20.8 10.4 2.4
Idaho 10 - 8 15 - 13 0.1 1.2 4.8 12.2 21.3 25.4 20.1 10.4 3.8 0.5
Northern Colorado 7 - 11 14 - 14 0.3 2.2 8.2 17.1 25.5 24.1 15.3 6.2 1.1
Weber St. 9 - 9 13 - 16 0.5 3.1 9.9 18.3 24.1 21.6 14.2 6.3 1.8 0.3
Idaho St. 7 - 11 11 - 17 0.4 2.8 9.2 16.5 24.2 22.2 15.4 7.1 2.1 0.2
Eastern Washington 7 - 11 8 - 22 0.5 4.0 11.6 20.7 24.3 21.1 12.1 4.7 1.0 0.1
Sacramento St. 7 - 11 8 - 19 1.9 8.4 17.8 23.8 22.7 15.4 7.2 2.2 0.5 0.0
Northern Arizona 4 - 14 7 - 21 9.9 25.6 29.3 20.7 9.9 3.8 0.6 0.1

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Portland St. 74.1% 55.9 14.9 2.9 0.4 0.0
Montana 24.1% 10.9 10.2 2.6 0.4 0.0
Montana St. 21.8% 10.1 8.6 2.7 0.4 0.0
Idaho 3.6% 1.1 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.0
Northern Colorado 0.0% 0.0
Weber St. 2.0% 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0
Idaho St. 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Eastern Washington 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Sacramento St. 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Northern Arizona


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Portland St. 24.4% 24.4% 0.0% 15   0.0 1.1 7.2 11.6 4.4 0.2 75.6 0.0%
Montana 20.0% 20.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 4.0 8.4 6.2 0.8 80.0 0.0%
Montana St. 17.2% 17.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 2.7 7.0 6.2 1.1 82.8 0.0%
Idaho 12.2% 12.2% 0.0% 0.1 1.4 4.7 5.1 0.9 87.8 0.0%
Northern Colorado 7.2% 7.2% 0.0% 0.1 0.9 2.2 2.9 1.1 92.8 0.0%
Weber St. 7.0% 7.0% 0.0% 0.2 0.9 3.0 2.9 93.0 0.0%
Idaho St. 5.4% 5.4% 0.0% 0.1 0.5 1.9 3.0 94.6 0.0%
Eastern Washington 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0 3.7 96.3 0.0%
Sacramento St. 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.1 2.3 97.6 0.0%
Northern Arizona 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4 99.6 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 96.1% 1.0 3.9 96.1
2nd Round 2.6% 0.0 97.4 2.6
Sweet Sixteen 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Portland St. 24.4% 0.0% 24.4% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana 20.0% 0.2% 19.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana St. 17.2% 0.4% 17.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho 12.2% 0.2% 12.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Colorado 7.2% 0.4% 7.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Weber St. 7.0% 1.5% 6.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho St. 5.4% 1.8% 4.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Washington 3.7% 3.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacramento St. 2.4% 2.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Arizona 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%