Idaho
Big Sky
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.6#261
Expected Predictive Rating-5.1#252
Pace65.8#240
Improvement+1.2#151

Offense
Total Offense+0.9#147
First Shot+0.2#165
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#132
Layup/Dunks-0.8#209
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#265
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#47
Freethrows-2.3#314
Improvement-0.1#197

Defense
Total Defense-6.5#341
First Shot-6.4#345
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#201
Layups/Dunks-0.9#209
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#343
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#245
Freethrows-1.4#278
Improvement+1.3#113
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.1% 26.2% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four8.0% 26.0% 0.0%
First Round4.0% 12.9% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 34 - 64 - 11
Quad 49 - 812 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 236   UC Davis L 75-79 55%     0 - 1 -10.8 +0.6 -11.2
  Nov 11, 2024 120   @ Washington St. L 67-90 15%     0 - 2 -17.7 -8.5 -8.0
  Nov 16, 2024 20   @ BYU L 71-95 2%     0 - 3 -4.8 +2.8 -7.0
  Nov 23, 2024 304   Southern Utah L 67-82 60%     0 - 4 -23.2 +6.7 -33.1
  Nov 24, 2024 312   @ San Diego L 61-68 53%     0 - 5 -13.3 -14.3 +1.0
  Nov 30, 2024 142   UC Riverside W 80-68 35%     1 - 5 +10.3 +13.5 -1.9
  Dec 04, 2024 234   @ UMKC W 82-77 34%     2 - 5 +3.8 +13.2 -9.3
  Dec 07, 2024 89   @ Oregon St. L 62-78 10%     2 - 6 -7.4 -3.2 -6.0
  Dec 15, 2024 47   UC San Diego L 56-80 10%     2 - 7 -15.4 -9.5 -7.0
  Dec 18, 2024 236   @ UC Davis L 66-74 34%     2 - 8 -9.3 -3.6 -5.6
  Dec 21, 2024 292   @ Pacific W 95-72 47%     3 - 8 +18.2 +25.5 -5.9
  Jan 02, 2025 175   Montana St. W 69-64 42%     4 - 8 1 - 0 +1.4 -5.3 +6.8
  Jan 04, 2025 172   Montana L 71-73 42%     4 - 9 1 - 1 -5.4 -4.2 -1.2
  Jan 09, 2025 336   @ Sacramento St. W 80-67 62%     5 - 9 2 - 1 +4.2 +15.3 -9.3
  Jan 11, 2025 202   @ Portland St. L 63-75 28%     5 - 10 2 - 2 -11.6 -1.9 -10.6
  Jan 18, 2025 295   Eastern Washington W 83-76 68%     6 - 10 3 - 2 -3.4 +8.9 -12.0
  Jan 20, 2025 172   @ Montana L 67-72 23%     6 - 11 3 - 3 -2.9 -1.5 -1.8
  Jan 23, 2025 130   Northern Colorado W 77-76 33%     7 - 11 4 - 3 +0.1 +8.3 -8.1
  Jan 25, 2025 246   Northern Arizona L 72-80 57%     7 - 12 4 - 4 -15.3 +1.4 -17.5
  Jan 30, 2025 284   @ Weber St. W 82-74 46%     8 - 12 5 - 4 +3.6 +11.7 -7.6
  Feb 01, 2025 214   @ Idaho St. L 71-87 30%     8 - 13 5 - 5 -16.2 +7.1 -25.5
  Feb 06, 2025 202   Portland St. L 69-76 48%     8 - 14 5 - 6 -12.2 -4.8 -7.2
  Feb 08, 2025 336   Sacramento St. W 78-76 80%     9 - 14 6 - 6 -12.3 -3.0 -9.4
  Feb 15, 2025 295   @ Eastern Washington L 73-75 47%     9 - 15 6 - 7 -6.9 +4.3 -11.4
  Feb 20, 2025 246   @ Northern Arizona W 83-78 36%     10 - 15 7 - 7 +3.2 +12.1 -8.8
  Feb 22, 2025 130   @ Northern Colorado L 74-92 17%     10 - 16 7 - 8 -13.4 +7.7 -22.6
  Feb 27, 2025 214   Idaho St. L 65-69 51%     10 - 17 7 - 9 -9.7 -6.2 -3.8
  Mar 01, 2025 284   Weber St. W 81-79 OT 66%     11 - 17 8 - 9 -7.9 +1.9 -9.8
  Mar 03, 2025 175   @ Montana St. L 60-75 24%     11 - 18 8 - 10 -13.1 -6.7 -7.7
  Mar 10, 2025 202   Portland St. W 80-70 38%     12 - 18 +7.6 +6.4 +0.8
  Mar 11, 2025 172   Montana L 74-79 32%    
Projected Record 12 - 19 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 100.0 100.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 100.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10 100.0% 8.1% 8.1% 16.0 8.1 91.9
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 8.1% 8.1% 0.0% 16.0 8.1 91.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 8.1% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 22.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 69.1%