Idaho
Big Sky
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.6 #183
Expected Predictive Rating +0.2 #160
Pace 66.3 #257
Improvement -0.6 #217

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #156 C C- C+ C+ C
Defense #240 C B D+ D+ B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #309 1.10 #249 -3.9 #308
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #268 0.71 #248 -1.9 #278
Three Pointers 50% #25 1.07 #100 +6.0 #23
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #171 +0.3 #171
Freethrows 18.2 #136 73% #162 13.4 #135
Second Chance 28.8% #234 1.05 #169 0.30 #208
Turnovers 15.5% #122
Total Offense +0.3 #156

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #248 1.20 #241 +0.5 #151
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #35 0.84 #301 -3.5 #356
Three Pointers 37% #291 1.00 #174 +2.3 #100
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #197 -0.6 #197
Freethrows 18.2 #230 75% #280 13.7 #262
Second Chance 27.3% #66 1.02 #149 0.28 #84
Turnovers 14.9% #271
Total Defense -1.9 #240

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.3% #171 -1.9% #45
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.1% #174 3.2% #240
Possession Length 17.9 #230 17.4 #206
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #276 0.17 #177
Improvement -1.3 #261 +0.7 #134

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.3% 13.0% 9.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.2 14.6
.500 or above 76.7% 86.4% 65.6%
.500 or above in Conference 84.6% 92.9% 75.1%
Conference Champion 7.4% 12.0% 2.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.5%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round11.2% 13.0% 9.2%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Portland St. (Home) - 53.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 36 - 66 - 9
Quad 410 - 516 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 141 @Washington St. W 83 - 81 29% +9  1 - 0 +6 +9 A+ D C- -2 A- B+ F
 Wed, Nov 12 209 @San Diego L 74 - 78 44% -5  1 - 1 -4 +4 C+ D- F -8 F C B
 Sat, Nov 15 109 @UC San Diego L 67 - 75 21% +3  1 - 2 -1 -3 F D+ C+ +2 C+ A+ C+
 Wed, Nov 26 207 Cal St. Northridge W 78 - 64 55% +4  2 - 2 +11 +0 F A+ C- +10 A+ B- D+
 Fri, Nov 28 124 Sam Houston St. L 68 - 94 35% -4  2 - 3 -24 +3 B- C A- -29 F F F
 Wed, Dec 3 297 North Dakota W 90 - 58 81% +15  3 - 3 +21 +11 A+ A- C +10 D+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 170 @South Dakota St. W 84 - 81 36% -1  4 - 3 +5 +13 A D A -8 C A+ F
 Wed, Dec 10 84 @Notre Dame L 65 - 80 14% -5  4 - 4 -5 +5 B F A+ -12 F C D
 Sun, Dec 21 281 @Cal Poly W 83 - 80 OT 58% +7  5 - 4 -1 -5 D- D D- +3 A+ A+ F
 Tue, Dec 23 299 @Cal St. Bakersfield L 63 - 64 62% -2  5 - 5 -6 -7 F F C +1 F A- C+
 Sat, Jan 3 243 Eastern Washington W 84 - 81 71% +2  6 - 5 1 - 0 -5 +7 B- B+ D- -11 A F A
 Thu, Jan 8 161 Montana L 73 - 79 56% -9  6 - 6 1 - 1 -9 -2 F B+ A -7 C- A- C+
 Sat, Jan 10 152 Montana St. W 92 - 89 53% -9  7 - 6 2 - 1 +1 +21 A+ F A+ -20 F C+ B-
 Thu, Jan 15 219 @Idaho St. L 68 - 76 45% +2  7 - 7 2 - 2 -8 -4 F A+ B -5 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 217 @Weber St. W 75 - 67 45% +9  8 - 7 3 - 2 +8 -5 D C F +12 A+ D+ A+
 Thu, Jan 22 290 Sacramento St. W 86 - 76 79% +7  9 - 7 4 - 2 -0 +5 A+ F C- -6 B D- D-
 Sat, Jan 24 153 Portland St. W 72 - 71 53%
 Thu, Jan 29 185 @Northern Colorado L 75 - 78 39%
 Sat, Jan 31 315 @Northern Arizona W 74 - 69 67%
 Thu, Feb 5 152 @Montana St. L 69 - 74 32%
 Sat, Feb 7 161 @Montana L 74 - 78 34%
 Thu, Feb 12 217 Weber St. W 78 - 73 67%
 Sat, Feb 14 219 Idaho St. W 75 - 70 67%
 Thu, Feb 19 153 @Portland St. L 69 - 74 32%
 Sat, Feb 21 290 @Sacramento St. W 80 - 77 60%
 Thu, Feb 26 315 Northern Arizona W 77 - 66 84%
 Sat, Feb 28 185 Northern Colorado W 78 - 75 62%
 Mon, Mar 2 243 @Eastern Washington L 76 - 77 50%
Totals 15 - 13 10 - 8 -2 +0 C C- C+ -2 C B D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.7 2.5 1.2 0.2 7.4 1st
2nd 0.2 2.4 6.5 5.2 1.1 0.1 15.5 2nd
3rd 0.2 3.6 9.5 6.6 1.4 0.0 21.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 4.0 11.3 7.5 1.2 0.0 24.3 4th
5th 0.1 2.4 7.9 4.4 0.5 0.0 15.3 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 4.4 3.0 0.3 0.0 8.7 6th
7th 0.3 2.0 2.0 0.2 4.5 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 1.3 0.3 2.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.4 1.4 4.4 9.3 15.4 19.8 19.9 15.2 9.3 3.7 1.3 0.2 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
15-3 91.7% 1.2    1.0 0.2
14-4 68.8% 2.5    1.3 1.0 0.1 0.0
13-5 28.6% 2.7    0.6 1.4 0.6 0.1
12-6 5.4% 0.8    0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.4% 7.4 3.1 2.9 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.2% 30.6% 30.6% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 1.3% 23.8% 23.8% 13.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.0
14-4 3.7% 25.6% 25.6% 13.6 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 2.7
13-5 9.3% 21.7% 21.7% 13.8 0.0 0.6 1.2 0.2 7.3
12-6 15.2% 15.2% 15.2% 14.2 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.7 0.0 12.9
11-7 19.9% 11.9% 11.9% 14.5 0.1 1.1 1.1 0.0 17.5
10-8 19.8% 9.2% 9.2% 14.9 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.1 17.9
9-9 15.4% 6.0% 6.0% 15.2 0.0 0.7 0.2 14.5
8-10 9.3% 4.3% 4.3% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 8.9
7-11 4.4% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1 4.3
6-12 1.4% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 1.4
5-13 0.4% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 0.4
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 11.3% 11.3% 0.0% 14.3 88.7 0.0%