San Diego
West Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.1 #209
Expected Predictive Rating -5.2 #241
Pace 74.9 #43
Improvement +3.8 #35

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #201 C+ C C- D C
Defense #237 C F B+ D- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #319 1.23 #99 -2.1 #253
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #201 0.71 #250 -1.0 #229
Three Pointers 48% #45 1.04 #148 +4.2 #53
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #145 +1.1 #143
Freethrows 14.4 #321 74% #132 10.7 #295
Second Chance 29.5% #219 1.07 #142 0.32 #180
Turnovers 17.3% #237
Total Offense -1.2 #201

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #172 1.25 #283 -2.1 #250
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #266 0.81 #264 +0.6 #154
Three Pointers 43% #119 0.95 #89 +0.5 #155
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #207 -1.0 #207
Freethrows 20.6 #326 72% #139 14.8 #316
Second Chance 36.1% #341 1.11 #275 0.40 #340
Turnovers 19.2% #49
Total Defense -1.9 #237

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.4% #221 0.8% #238
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.6% #136 1.2% #201
Possession Length 17.3 #165 16.6 #69
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #77 0.25 #352
Improvement +2.2 #70 +1.6 #84

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 n/a 16.0
.500 or above 0.4% 1.8% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 14.3% 16.0% 14.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 8.4% 6.6% 8.7%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC San Diego (Away) - 17.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 50 - 9
Quad 34 - 64 - 16
Quad 46 - 410 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 219 Idaho St. L 68 - 71 63% -7  0 - 1 -9 -3 C D- C- -7 C+ D+ D+
 Wed, Nov 12 183 Idaho W 78 - 74 56% +5  1 - 1 -1 +5 A+ C+ F -6 D+ C- A+
 Tue, Nov 18 287 Grambling St. W 78 - 68 75% +7  2 - 1 -0 -2 F F C- +1 A+ D- C
 Fri, Nov 21 293 UC Riverside L 71 - 85 76% -10  2 - 2 -25 -5 F B- D- -20 F F D-
 Tue, Nov 25 142 California Baptist L 61 - 76 35% -2  2 - 3 -14 -11 C- F D- -3 C F A+
 Sun, Nov 30 250 @Long Beach St. L 72 - 76 45% +1  2 - 4 -6 +6 B A+ F -13 D F F
 Fri, Dec 5 238 @San Jose St. L 69 - 86 43% -18  2 - 5 -18 -9 F C A+ -9 F F A+
 Tue, Dec 9 48 USC L 81 - 94 15% -5  2 - 6 -5 +4 C- A- C -8 F D A+
 Sat, Dec 13 315 Northern Arizona W 78 - 69 81% +6  3 - 6 -3 +2 B- A+ F -5 D- F A+
 Fri, Dec 19 109 @UC San Diego L 72 - 82 17% +7 
 Mon, Dec 22 47 @Washington L 56 - 86 7% -16  3 - 7 -16 -14 D+ F F -1 A F B
 Sun, Dec 28 132 Pacific W 66 - 54 43% +9  4 - 7 1 - 0 +11 -2 F A- B+ +14 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 30 6 Gonzaga L 93 - 99 4% -10  4 - 8 1 - 1 +12 +17 A+ C+ A+ -4 C F A+
 Fri, Jan 2 101 @San Francisco L 64 - 74 16% -4  4 - 9 1 - 2 -2 -6 C F D+ +4 A+ D C
 Sun, Jan 4 54 @Santa Clara L 70 - 98 7% -12  4 - 10 1 - 3 -15 -1 A- F C -12 D+ F A-
 Thu, Jan 8 279 Pepperdine W 83 - 63 74% +12  5 - 10 2 - 3 +10 +12 A+ C+ C -0 C B+ A
 Sat, Jan 10 132 @Pacific L 70 - 77 23% +6  5 - 11 2 - 4 -2 -1 C D+ D -1 A+ C F
 Thu, Jan 15 121 @Seattle L 64 - 75 20% -6  5 - 12 2 - 5 -5 -3 C+ F D -2 F B B+
 Wed, Jan 21 141 Washington St. W 96 - 92 46% +8  6 - 12 3 - 5 +2 +20 A+ A+ A+ -18 C F F
 Sat, Jan 24 54 Santa Clara L 75 - 86 16%
 Wed, Jan 28 279 @Pepperdine W 74 - 73 53%
 Sat, Jan 31 195 Oregon St. W 76 - 74 58%
 Wed, Feb 4 42 @St. Mary's L 66 - 84 4%
 Sat, Feb 7 155 @Loyola Marymount L 71 - 77 28%
 Wed, Feb 11 210 Portland W 80 - 77 62%
 Sun, Feb 15 101 San Francisco L 73 - 78 33%
 Sat, Feb 21 155 Loyola Marymount L 74 - 75 49%
 Wed, Feb 25 195 @Oregon St. L 73 - 77 35%
 Sat, Feb 28 210 @Portland L 77 - 80 40%
Totals 10 - 19 7 - 11 -3 -1 C+ C C- -2 C F B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.2 2.5 0.7 0.0 5.8 4th
5th 0.1 3.4 4.5 1.2 0.1 0.0 9.3 5th
6th 0.0 2.5 8.1 2.4 0.2 13.1 6th
7th 0.7 9.5 5.1 0.3 15.5 7th
8th 0.0 5.5 9.2 0.9 0.0 15.7 8th
9th 1.3 10.3 2.2 0.0 13.9 9th
10th 0.3 6.8 4.9 0.1 12.1 10th
11th 0.5 4.2 6.2 0.5 11.4 11th
12th 0.9 1.7 0.3 2.9 12th
Total 1.4 6.1 14.7 22.0 23.6 17.9 9.4 3.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.1
11-7 0.9% 0.9
10-8 3.9% 3.9
9-9 9.4% 9.4
8-10 17.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 17.8
7-11 23.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 23.6
6-12 22.0% 22.0
5-13 14.7% 14.7
4-14 6.1% 6.1
3-15 1.4% 1.4
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.2%