Santa Clara
West Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.5#64
Expected Predictive Rating+7.1#80
Pace70.8#111
Improvement+2.9#64

Offense
Total Offense+5.6#51
First Shot+4.7#58
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#125
Layup/Dunks+2.9#80
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#333
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.4#36
Freethrows-0.6#222
Improvement+1.0#128

Defense
Total Defense+2.9#96
First Shot+1.0#145
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#48
Layups/Dunks+0.9#135
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#292
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#137
Freethrows+0.1#185
Improvement+1.9#86
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.9% 10.4% 4.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.0% 5.4% 1.9%
Average Seed 10.6 10.6 10.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 99.9% 99.2%
Conference Champion 1.1% 1.2% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.8% 4.1% 1.6%
First Round7.6% 8.0% 3.8%
Second Round2.1% 2.2% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Portland (Away) - 89.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 22 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 33 - 5
Quad 25 - 47 - 9
Quad 34 - 311 - 12
Quad 49 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 105   Saint Louis W 85-78 66%     1 - 0 +11.4 +10.9 +0.1
  Nov 08, 2024 61   Arizona St. L 74-81 48%     1 - 1 +2.0 +7.3 -5.4
  Nov 13, 2024 139   North Dakota St. L 80-88 OT 82%     1 - 2 -9.2 -4.6 -3.9
  Nov 16, 2024 88   @ Nevada L 59-85 48%     1 - 3 -17.0 -5.2 -13.6
  Nov 19, 2024 163   UC Riverside W 96-54 84%     2 - 3 +39.7 +24.2 +16.6
  Nov 23, 2024 78   Stanford L 69-71 64%     2 - 4 +2.9 -2.7 +5.6
  Nov 28, 2024 68   TCU W 69-52 52%     3 - 4 +24.9 +3.8 +21.3
  Nov 29, 2024 89   Washington L 69-76 59%     3 - 5 -0.8 +2.9 -3.9
  Dec 03, 2024 87   @ McNeese St. W 74-67 48%     4 - 5 +16.0 +11.3 +5.3
  Dec 07, 2024 259   Fresno St. W 81-66 93%     5 - 5 +6.9 -1.1 +6.8
  Dec 14, 2024 94   Bradley W 84-74 60%     6 - 5 +15.8 +20.3 -3.8
  Dec 18, 2024 170   Kennesaw St. W 94-74 85%     7 - 5 +17.4 +14.0 +1.9
  Dec 21, 2024 262   South Dakota W 98-81 93%     8 - 5 +8.8 +6.3 +0.9
  Dec 28, 2024 217   Pepperdine W 91-80 90%     9 - 5 1 - 0 +5.4 +14.7 -9.5
  Dec 30, 2024 72   @ San Francisco L 94-97 OT 44%     9 - 6 1 - 1 +7.1 +15.6 -8.2
  Jan 02, 2025 311   @ San Diego W 81-80 91%     10 - 6 2 - 1 -5.1 +6.4 -11.5
  Jan 09, 2025 76   Oregon St. W 82-81 OT 63%     11 - 6 3 - 1 +6.0 +3.1 +2.8
  Jan 11, 2025 72   San Francisco W 77-54 63%     12 - 6 4 - 1 +28.1 +7.7 +20.6
  Jan 16, 2025 136   @ Loyola Marymount L 54-57 67%     12 - 7 4 - 2 +1.0 -10.7 +11.5
  Jan 18, 2025 11   @ Gonzaga W 103-99 14%     13 - 7 5 - 2 +24.2 +24.3 -0.5
  Jan 23, 2025 103   Washington St. W 93-65 73%     14 - 7 6 - 2 +30.0 +25.0 +6.3
  Jan 25, 2025 76   @ Oregon St. L 69-83 44%     14 - 8 6 - 3 -4.0 +3.2 -8.1
  Jan 29, 2025 31   St. Mary's L 54-67 38%     14 - 9 6 - 4 -1.4 -5.3 +2.3
  Feb 01, 2025 302   Pacific W 83-49 95%     15 - 9 7 - 4 +23.5 +11.2 +15.0
  Feb 06, 2025 299   @ Portland W 84-70 89%    
  Feb 08, 2025 311   San Diego W 87-67 97%    
  Feb 11, 2025 31   @ St. Mary's L 65-73 21%    
  Feb 19, 2025 136   Loyola Marymount W 77-68 83%    
  Feb 22, 2025 103   @ Washington St. W 79-78 53%    
  Feb 27, 2025 11   Gonzaga L 78-85 28%    
  Mar 01, 2025 302   @ Pacific W 81-67 90%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.9 1.1 1st
2nd 0.0 1.6 7.7 1.8 11.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 6.3 23.9 8.8 39.1 3rd
4th 0.0 2.3 17.1 10.2 0.3 29.9 4th
5th 0.4 6.5 7.1 0.4 14.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 2.6 0.3 4.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.5 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 1.9 11.6 30.7 36.1 16.9 2.7 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 34.2% 0.9    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0
13-5 1.1% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 2.7% 50.4% 18.0% 32.3% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.0 1.3 39.4%
13-5 16.9% 21.3% 9.0% 12.3% 10.6 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.2 0.1 13.3 13.5%
12-6 36.1% 9.1% 5.1% 4.0% 10.9 0.1 0.6 2.3 0.3 32.8 4.2%
11-7 30.7% 4.4% 3.4% 1.1% 10.9 0.2 1.1 0.1 29.4 1.1%
10-8 11.6% 2.2% 1.7% 0.5% 11.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 11.3 0.5%
9-9 1.9% 0.5% 0.5% 12.0 0.0 1.9
8-10 0.1% 0.1
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 9.9% 5.1% 4.8% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 2.2 6.3 0.5 90.2 5.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 8.4 2.1 18.8 39.6 18.8 14.6 6.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6% 45.3% 10.2 1.6 9.4 12.5 21.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.5% 37.3% 10.6 14.4 22.2 0.7