Utah Tech
Western Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.8#282
Expected Predictive Rating-9.7#315
Pace69.0#179
Improvement+2.3#63

Offense
Total Offense-2.8#248
First Shot-0.4#179
After Offensive Rebound-2.4#317
Layup/Dunks+1.2#138
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#227
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#175
Freethrows-0.7#230
Improvement+2.7#31

Defense
Total Defense-4.0#297
First Shot-1.8#238
After Offensive Rebounds-2.2#335
Layups/Dunks-3.9#314
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#264
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#59
Freethrows+0.1#178
Improvement-0.4#217
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 0.9% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 15.9
.500 or above 0.4% 1.1% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 13.9% 17.7% 11.9%
Conference Champion 0.9% 1.2% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 40.1% 34.9% 42.9%
First Four0.6% 0.6% 0.5%
First Round0.5% 0.6% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida International (Away) - 34.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 32 - 102 - 16
Quad 46 - 68 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 69   @ Oregon St. L 57-80 6%     0 - 1 -12.1 -9.6 -2.5
  Nov 09, 2024 199   New Mexico St. L 63-75 43%     0 - 2 -16.8 -9.9 -7.2
  Nov 16, 2024 145   @ Wyoming L 69-86 17%     0 - 3 -13.4 -4.4 -8.4
  Nov 22, 2024 65   @ Utah L 53-84 6%     0 - 4 -19.9 -19.0 +1.8
  Nov 24, 2024 155   Cal St. Northridge L 79-89 26%     0 - 5 -9.9 +5.7 -15.4
  Nov 25, 2024 191   @ Montana L 66-69 22%     0 - 6 -1.6 -4.4 +2.7
  Nov 26, 2024 322   Denver W 68-54 58%     1 - 6 +5.0 -2.0 +8.9
  Nov 30, 2024 254   @ Portland St. L 68-71 32%     1 - 7 -4.9 -2.9 -2.2
  Dec 03, 2024 59   @ Boise St. L 64-87 5%     1 - 8 -11.0 +2.5 -15.5
  Dec 07, 2024 44   @ Utah St. L 62-92 4%     1 - 9 -15.8 -6.0 -8.7
  Dec 13, 2024 217   Weber St. L 71-73 47%     1 - 10 -8.1 +4.0 -12.4
  Dec 19, 2024 238   South Dakota W 92-87 52%     2 - 10 -2.2 +6.8 -9.2
  Dec 30, 2024 259   @ Florida International L 72-76 35%    
  Jan 09, 2025 144   Texas Arlington L 76-80 34%    
  Jan 11, 2025 289   Tarleton St. W 70-67 62%    
  Jan 16, 2025 142   @ Seattle L 67-78 17%    
  Jan 18, 2025 147   @ Utah Valley L 66-76 17%    
  Jan 25, 2025 107   Grand Canyon L 70-78 23%    
  Jan 30, 2025 289   @ Tarleton St. L 67-70 40%    
  Feb 01, 2025 144   @ Texas Arlington L 73-83 17%    
  Feb 06, 2025 220   Abilene Christian L 72-73 48%    
  Feb 13, 2025 225   @ Southern Utah L 72-78 28%    
  Feb 15, 2025 165   @ California Baptist L 68-77 20%    
  Feb 20, 2025 147   Utah Valley L 69-73 35%    
  Feb 22, 2025 220   @ Abilene Christian L 69-76 28%    
  Feb 27, 2025 225   Southern Utah L 75-76 49%    
  Mar 01, 2025 165   California Baptist L 71-74 38%    
  Mar 06, 2025 107   @ Grand Canyon L 67-81 10%    
  Mar 08, 2025 142   Seattle L 70-75 34%    
Projected Record 7 - 22 5 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.9 1st
2nd 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 1.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 3.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.6 1.5 0.2 4.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 4.0 2.9 0.4 0.0 8.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 5.3 4.6 0.7 0.0 12.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.2 7.1 6.6 1.4 0.0 17.6 7th
8th 0.0 1.1 4.4 8.8 7.7 1.7 0.1 23.8 8th
9th 0.8 3.6 7.6 9.5 5.3 1.2 0.1 28.0 9th
Total 0.8 3.7 8.7 14.2 16.4 17.4 14.4 10.6 6.9 3.8 1.9 0.8 0.4 0.2 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 96.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
12-4 76.1% 0.3    0.2 0.1
11-5 40.8% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
10-6 6.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.9% 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 0.2% 16.0% 16.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-4 0.4% 6.7% 6.7% 15.0 0.0 0.3
11-5 0.8% 5.4% 5.4% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.8
10-6 1.9% 7.0% 7.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 1.7
9-7 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.1 3.7
8-8 6.9% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 6.8
7-9 10.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 10.5
6-10 14.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 14.3
5-11 17.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 17.4
4-12 16.4% 16.4
3-13 14.2% 14.2
2-14 8.7% 8.7
1-15 3.7% 3.7
0-16 0.8% 0.8
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.6 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%