Utah Tech
Western Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.1#292
Expected Predictive Rating-8.8#309
Pace67.4#207
Improvement+1.5#118

Offense
Total Offense-3.3#264
First Shot-0.7#197
After Offensive Rebound-2.7#324
Layup/Dunks+0.8#147
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#216
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#178
Freethrows-0.8#235
Improvement+1.7#92

Defense
Total Defense-3.7#284
First Shot-2.2#249
After Offensive Rebounds-1.5#303
Layups/Dunks-4.3#327
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#248
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#78
Freethrows+0.3#162
Improvement-0.2#197
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 5.1% 8.5% 1.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 32.5% 18.3% 48.1%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Abilene Christian (Home) - 52.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 31 - 101 - 17
Quad 46 - 67 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 76   @ Oregon St. L 57-80 7%     0 - 1 -13.0 -12.7 -0.4
  Nov 09, 2024 166   New Mexico St. L 63-75 33%     0 - 2 -14.5 -8.0 -6.8
  Nov 16, 2024 167   @ Wyoming L 69-86 18%     0 - 3 -14.5 -4.0 -9.9
  Nov 22, 2024 84   @ Utah L 53-84 7%     0 - 4 -21.4 -19.3 +0.6
  Nov 24, 2024 127   Cal St. Northridge L 79-89 19%     0 - 5 -7.9 +6.3 -14.0
  Nov 25, 2024 207   @ Montana L 66-69 24%     0 - 6 -2.8 -5.3 +2.4
  Nov 26, 2024 331   Denver W 68-54 64%     1 - 6 +3.4 -1.7 +6.9
  Nov 30, 2024 215   @ Portland St. L 68-71 26%     1 - 7 -3.5 -1.2 -2.4
  Dec 03, 2024 51   @ Boise St. L 64-87 4%     1 - 8 -10.3 +2.0 -14.3
  Dec 07, 2024 49   @ Utah St. L 62-92 4%     1 - 9 -17.3 -8.7 -7.5
  Dec 13, 2024 286   Weber St. L 71-73 58%     1 - 10 -11.3 +2.5 -14.0
  Dec 19, 2024 262   South Dakota W 92-87 54%     2 - 10 -3.2 +6.2 -9.6
  Dec 30, 2024 243   @ Florida International L 66-80 32%     2 - 11 -16.4 -10.2 -5.1
  Jan 09, 2025 200   Texas Arlington W 74-62 39%     3 - 11 1 - 0 +7.7 -0.3 +8.4
  Jan 11, 2025 247   Tarleton St. W 58-54 52%     4 - 11 2 - 0 -3.6 -8.4 +5.2
  Jan 16, 2025 162   @ Seattle L 62-82 18%     4 - 12 2 - 1 -17.3 -5.5 -12.7
  Jan 18, 2025 132   @ Utah Valley L 80-96 15%     4 - 13 2 - 2 -11.9 +11.7 -23.5
  Jan 25, 2025 74   Grand Canyon L 66-79 13%     4 - 14 2 - 3 -7.9 -0.5 -7.9
  Jan 30, 2025 247   @ Tarleton St. L 54-61 33%     4 - 15 2 - 4 -9.6 -9.5 -1.0
  Feb 01, 2025 200   @ Texas Arlington L 71-73 23%     4 - 16 2 - 5 -1.3 +7.9 -9.6
  Feb 06, 2025 242   Abilene Christian W 70-69 52%    
  Feb 13, 2025 268   @ Southern Utah L 71-75 35%    
  Feb 15, 2025 161   @ California Baptist L 65-75 17%    
  Feb 20, 2025 132   Utah Valley L 67-73 30%    
  Feb 22, 2025 242   @ Abilene Christian L 67-72 31%    
  Feb 27, 2025 268   Southern Utah W 73-72 58%    
  Mar 01, 2025 161   California Baptist L 68-73 34%    
  Mar 06, 2025 74   @ Grand Canyon L 66-83 6%    
  Mar 08, 2025 162   Seattle L 68-73 35%    
Projected Record 7 - 22 5 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.1 1.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 2.1 0.3 0.0 3.8 4th
5th 0.0 1.8 4.9 1.3 0.0 8.1 5th
6th 2.2 8.9 3.6 0.2 14.8 6th
7th 3.1 14.2 8.0 0.6 25.9 7th
8th 3.8 14.8 8.7 0.7 28.0 8th
9th 3.7 9.4 4.9 0.4 18.3 9th
Total 3.7 13.1 22.8 25.5 19.4 10.4 4.0 0.9 0.2 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 0.2% 0.0 0.1
9-7 0.9% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.9
8-8 4.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 4.0
7-9 10.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 10.4
6-10 19.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 19.3
5-11 25.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 25.5
4-12 22.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 22.8
3-13 13.1% 13.1
2-14 3.7% 3.7
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.7%