Utah Tech
Western Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.0 #233
Expected Predictive Rating -3.3 #219
Pace 68.0 #212
Improvement +2.2 #85

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #241 C+ D- C F C+
Defense #220 C- C+ C- C D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #180 1.25 #91 +1.6 #121
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #215 0.74 #189 -0.9 #222
Three Pointers 43% #141 0.99 #228 +0.5 #164
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #142 +1.2 #141
Freethrows 14.1 #332 70% #279 9.8 #327
Second Chance 28.3% #247 0.86 #354 0.24 #324
Turnovers 16.5% #177
Total Offense -2.5 #241

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #63 1.26 #302 -4.8 #327
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #282 0.77 #197 +1.1 #105
Three Pointers 40% #223 0.94 #84 +2.2 #105
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #222 -1.4 #222
Freethrows 17.3 #188 72% #143 12.5 #172
Second Chance 31.8% #239 0.95 #55 0.30 #127
Turnovers 15.8% #223
Total Defense -1.5 #220

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.5% #157 1.5% #307
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 1.7% #151 1.3% #202
Possession Length 17.5 #193 17.6 #233
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #235 0.18 #204
Improvement +1.4 #103 +0.7 #135

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.0% 4.6% 2.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.3 15.7
.500 or above 9.3% 11.9% 2.8%
.500 or above in Conference 32.5% 39.5% 15.3%
Conference Champion 1.6% 2.1% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 19.7% 12.5% 37.6%
First Four1.4% 1.4% 1.4%
First Round3.5% 4.0% 2.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Utah (Home) - 71.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 34 - 84 - 15
Quad 48 - 312 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 283 @South Dakota W 81 - 79 OT 49% +2  1 - 0 -2 -8 C F F +6 A+ C+ D+
 Fri, Nov 7 2 @Arizona L 67 - 93 1% -11  1 - 1 +0 +6 C B- C -5 F A+ B+
 Sun, Nov 9 88 @Arizona St. L 66 - 81 11% -11  1 - 2 -6 -5 D C- D- -0 A- D- F
 Wed, Nov 12 327 Manhattan L 75 - 79 73% -3  1 - 3 -14 +0 F C A -15 F F A-
 Fri, Nov 14 365 Mississippi Valley W 81 - 75 2OT 96% +3  2 - 3 -18 -4 F F B -14 F A+ D-
 Sat, Nov 15 106 @Hawaii L 62 - 68 14% -6  2 - 4 +1 -3 C+ F D+ +5 B+ F A+
 Tue, Nov 25 153 Portland St. L 63 - 68 44% -1  2 - 5 -7 -9 C+ F C- +1 B+ B- A-
 Sat, Nov 29 293 UC Riverside W 77 - 69 74% +4  3 - 5 -3 +7 B C A -9 D- D- C-
 Wed, Dec 3 54 @Santa Clara L 80 - 90 6% -12  3 - 6 +3 +6 A+ D- F -2 C C B+
 Sat, Dec 20 217 @Weber St. W 82 - 80 36% +1  4 - 6 +2 +13 A+ F A- -11 F A+ C
 Mon, Dec 22 44 @Creighton L 69 - 92 5% -11  4 - 7 -9 -1 B+ C+ F -7 F A+ B
 Mon, Dec 29 284 Southern Utah W 80 - 66 71% +2  5 - 7 1 - 0 +4 +2 C+ D+ F +2 C+ B- B-
 Thu, Jan 1 258 @Abilene Christian W 79 - 64 43% +14  6 - 7 2 - 0 +13 +11 A+ F F +3 F A A+
 Thu, Jan 8 142 @California Baptist L 72 - 84 22% -7  6 - 8 2 - 1 -8 +11 A+ F C -20 C F F
 Sat, Jan 10 107 @Utah Valley L 76 - 92 15% -7  6 - 9 2 - 2 -9 +1 C+ C+ F -8 C D D+
 Thu, Jan 15 156 Texas Arlington L 52 - 56 45% -5  6 - 10 2 - 3 -7 -17 F C- A+ +10 A+ A+ B+
 Sat, Jan 17 189 Tarleton St. W 75 - 71 53% +6  7 - 10 3 - 3 -1 +0 B- F D -1 A A+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 142 @California Baptist L 64 - 73 22% -5  7 - 11 3 - 4 -5 +3 F A- A+ -9 C+ F F
 Sat, Jan 24 284 Southern Utah W 77 - 71 71%
 Thu, Jan 29 258 @Abilene Christian L 69 - 71 43%
 Sat, Jan 31 189 @Tarleton St. L 74 - 79 31%
 Thu, Feb 5 156 Texas Arlington L 68 - 69 45%
 Thu, Feb 12 107 Utah Valley L 72 - 77 31%
 Sat, Feb 14 142 California Baptist L 68 - 70 42%
 Thu, Feb 19 156 @Texas Arlington L 65 - 72 25%
 Sat, Feb 21 189 @Tarleton St. L 74 - 79 31%
 Thu, Feb 26 258 Abilene Christian W 72 - 68 65%
 Sat, Feb 28 284 @Southern Utah L 73 - 74 50%
 Sat, Mar 7 107 Utah Valley L 72 - 77 32%
Totals 12 - 17 8 - 10 -4 -3 C+ D- C -1 C- C+ C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.0 2.5 0.8 0.1 5.6 2nd
3rd 1.0 5.2 5.5 1.6 0.1 13.4 3rd
4th 0.2 3.3 11.5 9.6 2.3 0.1 26.9 4th
5th 0.2 4.0 12.1 7.3 1.0 24.5 5th
6th 0.2 3.6 8.7 4.8 0.5 17.7 6th
7th 0.5 2.7 4.6 2.2 0.2 0.0 10.2 7th
Total 0.5 2.9 8.4 15.1 20.3 20.3 16.0 9.9 4.5 1.7 0.4 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-5 85.9% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 46.1% 0.8    0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-7 8.2% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.6% 1.6 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.4% 20.5% 20.5% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-6 1.7% 20.9% 20.9% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 1.3
11-7 4.5% 13.0% 13.0% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.0 3.9
10-8 9.9% 8.6% 8.6% 15.1 0.0 0.7 0.2 9.0
9-9 16.0% 5.1% 5.1% 15.7 0.2 0.6 15.2
8-10 20.3% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.0 0.7 19.6
7-11 20.3% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.4 19.9
6-12 15.1% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 15.0
5-13 8.4% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 8.3
4-14 2.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.9
3-15 0.5% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.5
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 15.4 96.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%