Southern Utah
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -5.8 262
Results Rating -6.0 258
Consistency 0.17 286
Pace 74.1 41
Improvement +8.4 4

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 245 C- C- D- D C
Defense D+ 263 D C+ D- B C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 123 C 58% 181 +1.1 135
2 Pt. Jumpers 45% 96 D 33% 324 -0.6 211
Three Pointers 37% 253 C 34% 172 -1.7 240
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.0 194 C- -1.2 217
1st FG Attempt C- 1.00 213
Second Chance C 29.7% 193 D+ 0.98 267 C- 0.29 224
Opponents' Steals F+ 11.8% 349
Other Turnovers C- 7.7% 250
Turnovers D- 19.5% 332
Freethrows D- 0.26 331 C- 72% 220 D 0.18 324
Total Offense C- -2.8 245

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots D+ 43% 270 C- 11.5% 216
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 22% 214 D 7.7% 322
Three Pointers C 83% 206 D 1.4% 305
Total D+ 51% 272 D 6.9% 318


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 69 C 58% 172 +2.5 266
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 108 D 42% 300 +1.5 304
Three Pointers 35% 342 F+ 39% 357 -0.5 159
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.1 180 D +3.2 308
1st FG Attempt D 1.09 290
Second Chance C- 31.0% 219 B- 0.98 96 C+ 0.30 157
Turnovers from Steals D- 6.7% 345
Other Turnovers C- 6.8% 250
Turnovers D- 13.5% 342
Freethrows B 0.26 61 B- 71% 96 B 0.19 54
Total Defense D+ -3.0 263

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 46% 121 C 11.2% 158
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 23% 143 C 4.6% 195
Three Pointers B+ 77% 30 B- 1.3% 79
Total B 50% 71 C+ 6.3% 119

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.5 193 15.9 8
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 208 0.21 307
Consistency 0.13 240 0.15 332
Improvement +6.0 3 +2.4 68

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 287 266 240
Results Rating Rank 290 255 236
Conference Record 6 - 12 6 - 12 8 - 10
Conference Finish 6 5 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 2% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 17% 0% 21%
First Four1% 2% 1%
First Round1% 1% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Utah Valley (Home) - 21.8% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 33 - 114 - 18
Quad 44 - 48 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 58 @Arizona St. L 64 - 81 5% -11  0% 0 - 1 C- -4 D- -8 F B D+ B +4 F+ A+ A-
 Sat, Nov 8 144 UT Rio Grande Valley L 72 - 95 36% -11  4% 0 - 2 F -25 D- -7 D D+ B- F -17 F C C-
 Sat, Nov 15 253 @Nebraska Omaha L 85 - 90 37% -3  11% 0 - 3 D+ -7 C+ +2 B D- C+ F+ -9 F A+ D-
 Mon, Nov 17 11 @Gonzaga L 50 - 122 1% -34  0% 0 - 4 F -50 F -21 F D- F F -18 F F D-
 Wed, Nov 19 128 @Washington St. L 74 - 98 15% -12  14% 0 - 5 F -19 D+ -3 B+ F F F -15 D+ F F
 Fri, Nov 28 158 @Robert Morris L 54 - 61 20% -11  0% 0 - 6 C- -4 F -16 F C F A+ +12 A+ B- D
 Sat, Nov 29 320 Stetson W 70 - 68 65% -3  30% 1 - 6 D+ -8 F -11 D F+ F B- +3 C- D+ B+
 Sat, Dec 6 160 @Oregon St. L 70 - 81 20% -11  0% 1 - 7 D+ -8 D -4 D+ A- F+ D+ -4 F B C+
 Sat, Dec 13 52 @Washington L 69 - 105 5% -18  0% 1 - 8 F -22 C- -1 A- F C+ F -21 F C F
 Thu, Dec 18 316 @Northern Arizona L 57 - 65 53% -0  47% 1 - 9 D- -15 F -20 F F F B +5 B C- F
 Mon, Dec 29 198 @Utah Tech L 66 - 80 26% -2  42% 1 - 10 0 - 1 D- -13 F -12 D- D F C -1 D+ C- C
 Sat, Jan 3 180 Texas Arlington L 77 - 86 44% -1  46% 1 - 11 0 - 2 D- -13 C +0 B- D+ D F -13 F A- D
 Thu, Jan 8 96 @Utah Valley L 72 - 89 10% -10  0% 1 - 12 0 - 3 D -8 C- -0 C C B- D- -7 F+ D C+
 Sat, Jan 10 133 @California Baptist L 55 - 58 16% -6  0% 1 - 13 0 - 4 C+ +2 D- -7 F A+ F A- +8 A+ F+ F
 Thu, Jan 15 219 Tarleton St. W 106 - 105 OT 53% +5  93% 2 - 13 1 - 4 D+ -6 B +6 B- B+ B F -11 F+ F D+
 Sat, Jan 17 235 Abilene Christian W 74 - 52 55% +11  96% 3 - 13 2 - 4 A- +15 D+ -3 D+ C+ D+ A+ +18 A+ A+ C+
 Wed, Jan 21 96 Utah Valley W 84 - 70 21% +4  81% 4 - 13 3 - 4 A- +17 A- +10 A+ A F+ B+ +6 A+ B- F
 Sat, Jan 24 198 @Utah Tech L 91 - 102 26% -8  8% 4 - 14 3 - 5 D -10 A +12 B B- B+ F -22 F+ F F
 Thu, Jan 29 180 @Texas Arlington L 61 - 80 24% -14  0% 4 - 15 3 - 6 F+ -17 F+ -10 F F C D- -7 D- D+ D-
 Sat, Jan 31 235 @Abilene Christian W 79 - 76 33% -4  7% 5 - 15 4 - 6 C+ +2 B+ +8 A+ B+ F D -6 F B- F
 Sat, Feb 7 219 Tarleton St. L 59 - 62 53% -1  30% 5 - 16 4 - 7 D -10 F -16 F D F B+ +7 C+ B+ A-
 Thu, Feb 12 133 California Baptist L 66 - 83 33% -8  4% 5 - 17 4 - 8 F -18 D -5 B- F+ B+ F -14 D- F F
 Sat, Feb 14 180 @Texas Arlington W 78 - 73 24% +3  87% 6 - 17 5 - 8 B- +7 B+ +8 A+ C F C -1 C- A- F
 Thu, Feb 19 219 @Tarleton St. L 74 - 78 31% -1  34% 6 - 18 5 - 9 C- -5 B- +4 D C- C- F+ -9 F B- F
 Sat, Feb 21 235 @Abilene Christian L 83 - 87 33% +4  73% 6 - 19 5 - 10 D+ -5 B- +4 A+ C F F+ -9 F A+ F
 Sat, Feb 28 198 Utah Tech W 81 - 67 48% +4  61% 7 - 19 6 - 10 B +9 B +6 C A B- B- +3 C- A+ C
 Thu, Mar 5 96 Utah Valley L 73 - 81 22%
 Sat, Mar 7 133 California Baptist L 70 - 75 34%
Totals 8 - 20 7 - 11 -6 C- -3 B+ C- C D+ -3 C C- D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C D C C- 41% 45% 37% C C- C D+ C- D- D- C- D D+ C D F+ D 43% 22% 35% C D C- B- C+ D- B B- B
1.05 58% 33% 34% -1 0 1.00 30% 1.0 .29 20% .26 72% .18 1.13 58% 42% 39% +3 0 1.09 31% 1.0 .30 13% .26 71% .18
Nov
4		 Arizona St. D- C F F F 46% 17% 37% B+ F B C+ B D+ F A+ F B D- B F F+ 44% 17% 39% D F+ C+ A+ A+ A- C+ A- B
0.88 56% 20% 14% -16 +1 0.73 36% 1.0 .36 22% .14 100% .14 1.11 67% 33% 43% +8 +1 1.20 31% 0.8 .26 19% .34 70% .24
Nov
8		 UT Rio Grande Valley D- B F D D 31% 27% 42% D- D D+ D+ D+ B- D F F+ F C+ A+ F F 47% 12% 42% F+ F F A+ C C- A+ A+ A+
0.98 65% 27% 30% -3 -1 0.93 28% 0.8 .21 15% .31 63% .19 1.30 57% 14% 64% +16 +2 1.37 44% 0.6 .28 16% .08 60% .05
Nov
15		 Nebraska Omaha C+ A A D- B- 45% 14% 41% B B C- F D- C+ D+ D+ D F+ C- D+ F F 44% 22% 35% D+ F C A+ A+ D- F F F
1.14 73% 50% 29% +5 +1 1.16 28% 0.7 .21 13% .26 71% .19 1.21 58% 42% 53% +11 0 1.24 25% 0.3 .06 13% .39 80% .31
Nov
17		 Gonzaga F C+ F F F 29% 29% 43% C F D+ F D- F D+ D+ D+ F F+ F F F 36% 42% 22% A+ F C+ F F D- C+ F C-
0.61 56% 25% 17% -15 -2 0.68 20% 0.6 .11 28% .26 67% .17 1.49 74% 63% 57% +24 -3 1.44 35% 1.6 .54 11% .27 80% .22
Nov
19		 Washington St. D+ B B- A A- 31% 31% 38% D- B+ F F F F C- C C- F F+ F C+ D 36% 24% 40% B+ D+ D F F F B B+ B
1.03 63% 44% 40% +7 -2 1.12 17% 0.8 .13 19% .28 75% .21 1.36 71% 57% 35% +10 -1 1.21 34% 1.9 .66 10% .25 69% .17
Nov
28		 Robert Morris F C- F F F 47% 22% 31% C F D B+ C F D F F A+ A+ F A+ A 27% 31% 41% A A+ B- C+ B- D B- A+ A-
0.84 57% 10% 21% -13 0 0.78 25% 1.1 .28 23% .32 63% .20 0.94 43% 56% 19% -8 -2 0.82 33% 1.1 .36 15% .22 50% .11
Nov
29		 Stetson F A F F D- 52% 20% 28% B- D F A- F+ F B- A+ A- B- D+ F A D+ 36% 28% 36% B C- D- C+ D+ B+ A+ F B+
1.01 73% 20% 21% -1 +1 1.02 21% 1.3 .28 19% .30 88% .27 0.98 61% 50% 28% +1 -1 1.02 30% 1.0 .30 22% .18 80% .15
Dec
6		 Oregon St. D D+ A+ F D- 57% 8% 35% A D+ D- A+ A- F+ F F F D+ F B F F 40% 24% 36% B- F B- B B C+ B D+ B-
1.00 52% 50% 22% -9 +3 0.90 26% 1.7 .43 18% .24 64% .16 1.15 70% 33% 44% +9 0 1.20 24% 1.1 .28 18% .33 79% .26
Dec
13		 Washington C- A+ A D- A 28% 35% 37% D A- D+ F F C+ F F F F D F+ F F 35% 27% 38% C F C- C+ C F D D+ D
0.97 75% 45% 29% +4 -3 1.05 23% 0.4 .10 15% .17 50% .08 1.47 67% 50% 48% +14 -1 1.28 37% 1.1 .40 3% .33 78% .26
Dec
18		 Northern Arizona F F F A F 54% 21% 25% C F F F F F D- F+ F+ B A- B F B 51% 31% 18% C B C D+ C- F D B- D+
0.88 46% 30% 42% -5 +1 0.94 24% 0.8 .18 23% .24 67% .16 1.00 48% 33% 44% -4 0 0.94 24% 1.1 .27 12% .30 65% .19
Dec
29		 Utah Tech F F B+ D F+ 51% 14% 35% B D- D+ D- D F A F B- C B- A+ F C 53% 11% 36% F D+ F A C- C C+ A+ B
0.92 48% 43% 29% -7 +2 0.92 28% 0.9 .26 21% .37 62% .23 1.11 55% 17% 45% +2 +2 1.11 38% 0.7 .28 17% .22 62% .13
Jan
3		 Texas Arlington C A F F B- 47% 22% 31% B+ B- D C D+ D C B+ C+ F B- D- F F 41% 22% 37% B- F A+ D+ A- D F+ D- F
1.06 71% 27% 25% -1 0 1.02 24% 1.1 .26 19% .36 76% .27 1.18 50% 45% 56% +10 0 1.22 24% 1.0 .24 18% .42 76% .32
Jan
8		 Utah Valley C- F F A+ C 40% 19% 42% C C D A C B- C- F F+ D- D- B+ F F 52% 19% 30% B- F+ F B+ D C+ C+ B+ B-
0.99 43% 20% 45% -2 0 0.98 26% 1.2 .31 19% .32 58% .19 1.22 68% 30% 44% +8 +1 1.20 46% 0.9 .43 21% .28 63% .17
Jan
10		 California Baptist D- F F F F 42% 18% 40% B- F A A+ A+ F F+ B- D- A- A+ A+ A+ A+ 39% 27% 35% A- A+ F D+ F+ F D- A+ C+
0.90 42% 13% 22% -18 +1 0.67 36% 1.3 .46 20% .25 75% .18 0.95 37% 23% 18% -21 -1 0.59 44% 1.0 .42 10% .35 58% .20
Jan
15		 Tarleton St. B B+ D- B+ B- 40% 11% 49% B B- D+ A+ B+ B A+ C A+ F B B F D 61% 18% 21% F F+ B- F F D+ D- C D-
1.17 67% 33% 38% +6 +1 1.17 30% 1.5 .45 20% .58 74% .43 1.16 50% 33% 57% +2 +2 1.09 28% 1.5 .44 18% .38 75% .28
Jan
17		 Abilene Christian D+ B- F C D 45% 12% 43% B- D+ A- F+ C+ D+ F C F A+ A+ A- A+ A+ 55% 14% 31% F A+ D A+ A+ C+ F D- F
1.04 65% 17% 36% +2 +2 1.10 34% 0.9 .31 24% .26 71% .18 0.73 30% 29% 20% -23 +2 0.59 35% 0.4 .16 21% .44 76% .34
Jan
21		 Utah Valley A- B- F A+ A+ 36% 23% 40% D+ A+ A B A F+ C+ A+ A- B+ A A+ A+ A+ 48% 13% 39% C A+ C B B- F D A C
1.19 59% 27% 53% +9 -1 1.19 39% 1.1 .43 24% .35 84% .30 0.99 48% 14% 23% -14 +2 0.77 37% 0.9 .35 14% .33 60% .20
Jan
24		 Utah Tech A A+ F D+ B+ 50% 24% 26% C- B C- A- B- B+ A+ A A+ F D+ F+ F F+ 52% 18% 31% D- F+ F+ F F F D- D+ D-
1.26 76% 25% 31% +5 0 1.12 30% 1.2 .37 12% .47 80% .38 1.41 63% 45% 42% +7 +1 1.19 34% 1.3 .46 4% .29 75% .22
Jan
29		 Texas Arlington F+ F B F+ D- 27% 43% 31% F F F+ F F C A F+ B D- C- A+ F D 53% 18% 29% D D- F A+ D+ D- D+ C- D
0.87 31% 43% 27% -9 -4 0.78 20% 0.8 .15 17% .45 65% .29 1.14 56% 22% 40% -2 +1 1.02 51% 0.7 .37 17% .38 73% .27
Jan
31		 Abilene Christian B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 53% 32% 16% D- A+ A D+ B+ F C+ A+ A D F C+ F F 30% 32% 38% A F A+ F B- F A+ A+ A+
1.16 85% 50% 50% +22 0 1.45 38% 1.0 .38 32% .45 86% .39 1.11 81% 35% 40% +9 -2 1.17 22% 1.1 .25 13% .20 50% .10
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Tarleton St. F F F B F 33% 23% 44% D+ F B F D F F A+ F B+ A F C C+ 50% 32% 18% C C+ B B B+ A- A A A+
0.86 38% 27% 38% -7 -1 0.88 38% 0.8 .30 28% .16 88% .14 0.90 44% 50% 33% -3 -1 0.94 27% 0.9 .24 23% .23 67% .15
Feb
12		 California Baptist D C+ F A B- 46% 24% 30% C+ B- D F F+ B+ C+ F D- F A- F F+ F 40% 29% 31% A D- C F F F A+ D+ A+
0.98 57% 25% 40% -1 0 1.00 22% 0.6 .14 12% .34 55% .18 1.23 43% 59% 39% +3 -1 1.05 37% 1.4 .51 12% .13 75% .10
Feb
14		 Texas Arlington B+ B- A+ A- A+ 36% 29% 36% C- A+ A- F C F A- D+ B+ C A+ F D D+ 45% 26% 30% B C- A- B+ A- F F B- F
1.12 63% 69% 38% +12 -1 1.24 36% 0.9 .32 23% .43 70% .30 1.05 38% 58% 36% -3 0 0.96 29% 0.8 .24 13% .48 69% .33
Feb
19		 Tarleton St. B- F F A+ D 35% 21% 44% C- D A- F C- C- A+ B+ A+ F+ F C- A+ F 62% 27% 11% F F D A+ B- F B- A+ B+
1.11 33% 22% 53% 0 0 1.02 42% 0.8 .33 22% .52 78% .40 1.17 71% 40% 17% +5 +1 1.15 35% 0.8 .26 15% .30 65% .19
Feb
21		 Abilene Christian B- C+ D A+ A+ 52% 20% 28% C+ A+ A F C F C- C+ C F+ F F A+ F 62% 12% 26% F F A A+ A+ F F C- F
1.11 63% 33% 69% +16 +1 1.37 38% 0.8 .29 32% .43 73% .31 1.16 71% 50% 23% +5 +3 1.18 24% 0.6 .14 16% .52 73% .38
Feb
28		 Utah Tech B B- A+ D- C+ 34% 24% 42% D- C A B A B- A+ D+ A B- A B F D+ 37% 29% 33% A C- A+ A+ A+ C C+ F C-
1.22 65% 50% 29% +2 -1 1.04 43% 1.1 .49 14% .40 70% .28 1.01 47% 33% 53% +4 -1 1.08 13% 0.5 .07 17% .22 83% .18



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 11.0 5.9 16.9 4th
5th 46.8 29.1 1.8 77.7 5th
6th 5.4 5.4 6th
7th 7th
Total 52.3 40.1 7.7 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10 7.7% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.2 7.5
7-11 40.1% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.6 39.5
6-12 52.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.4 51.9
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 16.0 98.8 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.2%
Lose Out 34.5%