Southern Utah
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.2#320
Expected Predictive Rating-12.0#325
Pace72.2#117
Improvement+1.6#69

Offense
Total Offense-5.9#329
First Shot-3.5#275
After Offensive Rebound-2.4#313
Layup/Dunks+7.1#16
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#180
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.1#350
Freethrows-3.4#335
Improvement-1.2#275

Defense
Total Defense-3.2#275
First Shot-5.1#335
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#77
Layups/Dunks-3.9#315
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#348
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#196
Freethrows+2.9#33
Improvement+2.7#13
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 1.4% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 15.9
.500 or above 0.6% 1.7% 0.4%
.500 or above in Conference 6.4% 11.5% 5.6%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.6% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 61.9% 52.0% 63.5%
First Four0.5% 0.9% 0.5%
First Round0.5% 1.0% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oregon St. (Away) - 13.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 32 - 102 - 16
Quad 45 - 76 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 82 @Arizona St. L 64-81 5%     0 - 1 -7.0 -8.1 +1.7
  Sat, Nov 8 213 UT Rio Grande Valley L 72-95 39%     0 - 2 -29.2 -7.4 -20.8
  Sat, Nov 15 252 @Nebraska Omaha L 85-90 25%     0 - 3 -7.2 +3.8 -10.7
  Mon, Nov 17 4 @Gonzaga L 50-122 1%     0 - 4 -47.4 -18.1 -18.9
  Wed, Nov 19 158 @Washington St. L 74-98 13%     0 - 5 -21.2 -1.6 -18.9
  Fri, Nov 28 183 @Robert Morris L 54-61 16%     0 - 6 -5.7 -13.8 +7.6
  Sat, Nov 29 348 Stetson W 70-68 60%     1 - 6 -9.7 -7.9 -1.8
  Sat, Dec 6 163 @Oregon St. L 64-76 14%    
  Sat, Dec 13 57 @Washington L 64-86 2%    
  Thu, Dec 18 263 @Northern Arizona L 70-76 28%    
  Mon, Dec 29 254 @Utah Tech L 68-75 26%    
  Sat, Jan 3 190 Texas Arlington L 69-73 36%    
  Thu, Jan 8 90 @Utah Valley L 64-82 5%    
  Sat, Jan 10 130 @California Baptist L 63-77 10%    
  Thu, Jan 15 202 Tarleton St. L 72-76 37%    
  Sat, Jan 17 234 Abilene Christian L 67-69 44%    
  Wed, Jan 21 90 Utah Valley L 67-79 14%    
  Sat, Jan 24 254 @Utah Tech L 68-75 26%    
  Thu, Jan 29 190 @Texas Arlington L 66-76 19%    
  Sat, Jan 31 234 @Abilene Christian L 64-72 24%    
  Sat, Feb 7 202 Tarleton St. L 72-76 38%    
  Thu, Feb 12 130 California Baptist L 66-74 23%    
  Sat, Feb 14 190 @Texas Arlington L 66-76 19%    
  Thu, Feb 19 202 @Tarleton St. L 69-79 20%    
  Sat, Feb 21 234 @Abilene Christian L 64-72 25%    
  Sat, Feb 28 254 Utah Tech L 71-72 46%    
  Thu, Mar 5 90 Utah Valley L 67-79 15%    
  Sat, Mar 7 130 California Baptist L 66-74 23%    
Projected Record 6 - 22 4 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.1 0.3 0.1 3.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.9 2.7 1.6 0.3 0.0 6.9 4th
5th 0.2 1.9 4.7 4.8 1.8 0.2 0.0 13.7 5th
6th 0.3 2.1 5.9 8.3 5.4 1.7 0.2 23.8 6th
7th 2.6 7.4 12.0 13.7 9.8 4.3 0.9 0.0 50.7 7th
Total 2.6 7.4 12.2 15.8 15.9 14.5 11.3 8.5 5.3 3.2 1.8 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 88.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0
13-5 36.5% 0.1    0.1 0.0
12-6 16.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 6.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.1% 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.2% 22.2% 22.2% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.2
12-6 0.4% 19.1% 19.1% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.4
11-7 0.7% 10.6% 10.6% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.7
10-8 1.8% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.1 1.7
9-9 3.2% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.1 3.1
8-10 5.3% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.1 5.1
7-11 8.5% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 8.4
6-12 11.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 11.2
5-13 14.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 14.4
4-14 15.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.9
3-15 15.8% 15.8
2-16 12.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.2
1-17 7.4% 7.4
0-18 2.6% 2.6
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 15.9 0.1 0.6 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.7%