Stetson
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -10.9 333
Expected Predictive Rating -9.3 310
Pace 68.3 194
Improvement +2.5 80

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D #301 D+ D D+ C- D+
Defense D #332 D- D- D B- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% 329 57% 192 -3.8 310
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 161 36% 240 -0.1 182
Three Pointers 46% 73 31% 289 +0.8 154
1st FG Attempt 0.96 271 -3.1 272
Second Chance 25.3% 325 1.00 221 0.25 311
Turnovers 18.5% 281
Freethrows 0.30 218 69% 280 0.21 242
Total Offense -4.9 301

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 170 67% 361 -4.1 320
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 255 43% 327 +0.0 193
Three Pointers 43% 122 34% 196 -1.1 238
1st FG Attempt 1.12 335 -5.2 336
Second Chance 32.7% 274 1.17 344 0.38 328
Turnovers 14.9% 306
Freethrows 0.28 91 73% 213 0.20 106
Total Defense -6.1 332

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.5 262 +0.3 231
Shot Type Accuracy -2.6 267 +4.7 336
Possession Length 18.2 265 16.5 44
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 289 0.19 254
Improvement +2.7 #58 -0.2 #203

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 1% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 6% 23% 3%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 2% 0% 2%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Florida Gulf Coast (Away) - 18.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 30 - 70 - 12
Quad 49 - 99 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 116 @Rhode Island L 62 - 93 7% -17  0% 0 - 1 F -25 F -12 D- F F F -11 D- F C-
 Mon, Nov 10 41 @Miami (FL) L 61 - 102 1% -18  22% 0 - 2 F -25 F -14 F C- D D -7 D- B+ C-
 Sun, Nov 16 263 @Western Carolina L 65 - 76 22% -8  9% 0 - 3 D- -14 F -17 F C- B- B- +4 F A- A+
 Wed, Nov 19 237 Howard W 64 - 60 36% +10  97% 1 - 3 C- -3 F -10 D- F F+ B+ +7 A A F
 Sat, Nov 22 360 VMI W 99 - 80 77% +9  89% 2 - 3 C +0 A+ +18 A+ B+ B- F -17 F F+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 150 Wright St. L 62 - 79 21% -15  7% 2 - 4 F -19 F -11 D- C+ D- F+ -10 F F+ B+
 Sat, Nov 29 284 Southern Utah L 68 - 70 35% +3  66% 2 - 5 D -9 F+ -9 D+ C F C +0 D+ C C-
 Sun, Nov 30 204 @Robert Morris L 62 - 80 15% -12  5% 2 - 6 F -18 D -5 F D+ B+ F -15 F F F
 Tue, Dec 2 68 @Grand Canyon L 45 - 67 3% -4  11% 2 - 7 D -11 F -19 F+ D- F B+ +7 B D+ A-
 Sat, Dec 6 90 @South Carolina L 51 - 82 5% -15  9% 2 - 8 F -23 F -15 F D- A F+ -11 F F A+
 Mon, Dec 22 54 @Oklahoma L 54 - 107 2% -25  1% 2 - 9 F -40 F -16 F D+ F F -25 F F D+
 Thu, Jan 1 344 @North Alabama W 70 - 67 43% +0  53% 3 - 9 1 - 0 D+ -6 D- -6 B F F C+ +0 B- D- C
 Sat, Jan 3 190 @Central Arkansas L 73 - 93 13% -13  7% 3 - 10 1 - 1 F -19 C +0 B+ C- D- F -20 F F C
 Thu, Jan 8 187 Lipscomb W 91 - 83 28% +11  96% 4 - 10 2 - 1 C+ +3 B +5 A+ F B+ C- -3 D- B- B-
 Sat, Jan 10 152 Austin Peay L 69 - 81 22% -7  5% 4 - 11 2 - 2 F+ -15 D- -7 F+ B C- D- -8 C F+ F
 Thu, Jan 15 317 West Georgia W 95 - 86 57% +4  91% 5 - 11 3 - 2 C- -4 B+ +9 A+ D+ F F -13 D- F F+
 Sat, Jan 17 218 Queens L 81 - 87 32% -8  0% 5 - 12 3 - 3 D- -12 C- -2 C D C- F+ -10 D B- F
 Thu, Jan 22 187 @Lipscomb L 74 - 79 OT 13% -5  11% 5 - 13 3 - 4 C- -4 F -10 D F F B+ +7 B- A+ F+
 Fri, Jan 23 152 @Austin Peay L 65 - 73 10% -0  54% 5 - 14 3 - 5 D+ -5 D -5 D D- C+ C -0 C+ F B-
 Thu, Jan 29 345 @North Florida W 84 - 77 43% +6  93% 6 - 14 4 - 5 C- -2 C- -1 C- F A- C -1 B- F+ D
 Sat, Jan 31 344 North Alabama L 66 - 68 66% -3  10% 6 - 15 4 - 6 F+ -17 F -11 F B- D- D -7 F C- C-
 Thu, Feb 5 283 @Bellarmine L 71 - 92 25% -11  5% 6 - 16 4 - 7 F -25 D+ -3 D+ B+ D F -25 F F F
 Sat, Feb 7 267 @Eastern Kentucky L 88 - 100 22% -0  40% 6 - 17 4 - 8 F+ -15 B+ +7 B- B- C F -22 F F F
 Wed, Feb 11 308 Jacksonville W 67 - 62 54% +5  87% 7 - 17 5 - 8 D+ -7 D -5 D+ F+ C+ C -1 A D- D-
 Sat, Feb 14 243 @Florida Gulf Coast L 71 - 80 18%
 Thu, Feb 19 190 Central Arkansas L 72 - 78 28%
 Sat, Feb 21 345 North Florida W 86 - 82 66%
 Thu, Feb 26 308 @Jacksonville L 67 - 72 32%
 Sat, Feb 28 243 Florida Gulf Coast L 74 - 77 38%
Totals 9 - 20 7 - 11 -11 D -5 D+ D D+ D -6 D- D- D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D C C- D+ D+ 32% 21% 46% D+ D+ D C- D D+ C- D+ C- D F D- C D- 39% 18% 43% C- D- D+ D- D- D B- C B-
1.02 57% 36% 31% -3 -1 0.96 25% 1.0 .25 18% .30 69% .21 1.17 67% 43% 34% +5 0 1.12 33% 1.2 .38 15% .28 73% .22
Nov
3		 Rhode Island F F B+ D- F+ 38% 15% 48% C+ D- D+ F F F B+ F D+ F F F A- F+ 40% 16% 44% C D- F F F C- D F+ F+
0.84 44% 43% 30% -7 +1 0.90 28% 0.6 .18 27% .41 55% .22 1.26 80% 50% 27% +6 +1 1.16 48% 1.3 .65 19% .40 79% .32
Nov
10		 Miami (FL) F A+ F F F 20% 29% 51% F+ F D A- C- D A+ F A D F+ F D+ D- 52% 12% 37% D D- A- C+ B+ C- D C D+
0.77 70% 7% 27% -12 -2 0.73 19% 1.3 .24 22% .42 58% .24 1.29 71% 57% 36% +10 +2 1.27 32% 1.0 .32 15% .39 69% .27
Nov
16		 Western Carolina F F C+ F F 31% 29% 40% F+ F D B- C- B- D+ F D- B- D+ F F F 40% 8% 52% F F A+ C- A- A+ A D B+
0.89 39% 41% 26% -10 -2 0.79 24% 1.1 .27 14% .30 68% .21 1.04 60% 50% 42% +8 +2 1.22 23% 1.0 .23 25% .20 73% .15
Nov
19		 Howard F F D- D+ D- 37% 17% 46% D+ D- F A+ F F+ A+ B A+ B+ A B+ A+ A 40% 20% 40% B- A B A+ A F B+ C- B+
0.93 47% 29% 32% -7 0 0.88 16% 1.4 .23 23% .53 75% .40 0.88 40% 30% 25% -14 0 0.74 30% 0.8 .24 15% .27 75% .21
Nov
22		 VMI A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 17% 13% 70% D+ A+ D A+ B+ B- F D- F F D C- C- F 36% 15% 49% C- F D- F+ F+ F B B B
1.50 89% 57% 50% +25 -1 1.50 35% 1.4 .50 15% .16 67% .11 1.21 60% 38% 33% 0 +1 1.04 31% 1.1 .33 9% .25 67% .17
Nov
25		 Wright St. F D- B- D- D- 40% 18% 42% C+ D- C- A- C+ D- F F F F+ A+ F F F 39% 16% 45% D+ F D+ F+ F+ B+ A+ A+ A+
0.96 50% 44% 29% -5 0 0.92 29% 1.2 .35 20% .17 56% .10 1.22 42% 50% 59% +13 +1 1.29 34% 1.3 .45 20% .12 50% .06
Nov
29		 Southern Utah F+ B- A F C- 36% 28% 36% D D+ C- C+ C F F+ A+ D C F A+ A+ C- 52% 20% 28% D- D+ A F C C- D- F F
0.98 61% 50% 28% +1 -1 1.02 30% 1.0 .30 22% .18 80% .15 1.01 73% 20% 21% -1 +1 1.02 21% 1.3 .28 19% .30 88% .27
Nov
30		 Robert Morris D F A+ F D- 24% 35% 41% F F F A+ D+ B+ C- C C- F C+ F F F 27% 25% 48% B+ F C- F F F C- A+ A-
1.02 45% 56% 21% -5 -3 0.87 20% 1.3 .26 13% .38 75% .28 1.31 54% 58% 48% +14 -1 1.27 36% 1.5 .54 11% .26 43% .11
Dec
2		 Grand Canyon F D+ F F+ F 43% 17% 40% A- F+ C- F D- F F F F B+ F F A+ B 28% 24% 48% A B C+ F+ D+ A- F A- F+
0.68 50% 0% 26% -14 +1 0.74 24% 0.8 .18 26% .20 40% .08 1.01 77% 45% 18% -4 -1 0.91 32% 1.2 .38 21% .44 70% .31
Dec
6		 South Carolina F C F F F 29% 31% 40% D- F F+ D+ D- A B F C F+ F F F F 26% 20% 54% B F F F+ F A+ A D A
0.80 57% 27% 16% -15 -2 0.69 21% 0.9 .18 11% .32 61% .19 1.29 75% 56% 44% +16 -1 1.33 45% 1.2 .55 20% .24 83% .20
Dec
22		 Oklahoma F A+ B F F 16% 34% 50% F F D B- D+ F F+ C+ D- F F A- F F 45% 12% 43% D- F D- F F D+ D- A- D+
0.79 75% 41% 12% -13 -3 0.70 25% 1.1 .28 21% .22 75% .17 1.57 87% 33% 55% +26 +2 1.57 39% 1.7 .65 12% .37 68% .25
Jan
1		 North Alabama D- A+ A+ F B 44% 16% 40% C B F F F F A D+ A- C+ C- C+ A+ B+ 45% 6% 49% F B- F+ C- D- C C+ C- C
1.06 75% 57% 28% +7 +1 1.18 25% 0.7 .18 20% .36 74% .27 1.02 57% 33% 20% -11 +2 0.84 36% 1.1 .38 18% .30 69% .20
Jan
3		 Central Arkansas C B- A+ A- B+ 24% 13% 62% D+ B+ C+ D- C- D- A+ D- A- F F A+ D- F 40% 8% 52% F+ F F F F C F F F
1.07 64% 50% 39% +8 0 1.18 30% 1.0 .30 22% .40 67% .26 1.37 80% 0% 38% +9 +2 1.24 42% 1.2 .52 16% .40 78% .32
Jan
8		 Lipscomb B A+ A+ B- A+ 34% 13% 53% B A+ F F F B+ A+ A A+ C- D- F B+ F+ 50% 12% 38% D D- A F B- B- F A- F
1.19 78% 57% 36% +11 +1 1.25 13% 0.5 .06 14% .44 79% .35 1.08 65% 67% 30% +5 +2 1.15 17% 1.4 .23 18% .38 71% .27
Jan
10		 Austin Peay D- C+ D F F 30% 17% 54% C- F+ C+ A B C- F D F D- B- F A C 40% 31% 29% B+ C B+ F F+ F F A+ F+
0.98 63% 33% 28% -5 0 0.93 32% 0.9 .29 20% .20 64% .12 1.15 52% 50% 27% -2 -1 0.96 22% 1.9 .42 7% .49 56% .28
Jan
15		 West Georgia B+ B F A+ A+ 51% 11% 38% B- A+ D C D+ F A+ B- A+ F C F A- D+ 41% 22% 37% F D- F D+ F F+ C F D
1.30 67% 20% 67% +21 +2 1.49 26% 1.0 .26 20% .48 75% .36 1.18 54% 54% 27% -2 0 0.98 39% 1.1 .44 12% .26 88% .23
Jan
17		 Queens C- B+ F+ B C+ 43% 20% 37% C C C F D C- A+ F A+ F+ F F A D 38% 9% 54% D D D- A+ B- F C- D C-
1.16 67% 30% 39% +5 0 1.12 34% 0.8 .29 16% .58 62% .36 1.25 81% 60% 27% +5 +1 1.14 35% 0.8 .29 10% .30 79% .24
Jan
22		 Lipscomb F C- D- C- D 36% 28% 36% C- D C- F F F D A+ C B+ D+ A- B B- 41% 19% 41% B B- A- A+ A+ F+ D+ C- D+
0.92 57% 31% 33% -2 -1 0.95 29% 0.5 .16 22% .24 87% .21 0.98 62% 25% 31% -3 0 0.97 18% 0.5 .09 12% .27 79% .21
Jan
23		 Austin Peay D B C- F+ D 32% 23% 45% D D D F D- C+ A- B- A- C F C- A+ C 33% 31% 37% A C+ F+ F F B- C D+ C
0.97 67% 36% 29% -1 -1 0.98 26% 0.5 .13 18% .36 70% .25 1.09 69% 40% 22% -2 -2 0.94 34% 1.7 .57 18% .29 75% .22
Jan
29		 North Florida C- D+ C B C- 43% 13% 44% C+ C- D+ F F A- B D- C+ C D- C A+ B 44% 10% 46% F+ B- D F F+ D D- D F+
1.21 57% 43% 38% +2 +1 1.09 34% 0.9 .32 9% .32 65% .21 1.11 65% 40% 25% -3 +2 1.00 28% 1.3 .38 16% .29 82% .24
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 North Alabama F B+ F F F 46% 22% 33% C- F C- B+ B- D- B- A+ A- D F B+ B- F 40% 16% 44% C- F C D+ C- C- D C+ D+
1.05 67% 10% 20% -9 0 0.85 34% 1.3 .46 17% .31 88% .27 1.08 72% 29% 30% +2 +1 1.07 29% 1.1 .32 17% .35 67% .23
Feb
5		 Bellarmine D+ A+ A C C- 13% 18% 69% D- D+ D- A+ B+ D D+ C D+ F D- C- F F 44% 10% 46% D+ F F F F F A+ F A+
1.15 83% 50% 35% +7 -1 1.13 29% 1.8 .50 18% .28 71% .20 1.50 70% 40% 58% +22 +2 1.50 27% 1.5 .41 10% .13 86% .11
Feb
7		 Eastern Kentucky B+ F A+ A+ B- 39% 18% 43% C+ B- C- A- B- C C+ A+ B+ F F F C+ F 35% 15% 51% F F D F F F F F F
1.25 47% 56% 48% +8 0 1.18 32% 1.2 .38 16% .34 85% .29 1.42 68% 75% 32% +8 0 1.18 37% 1.5 .53 10% .41 85% .35
Feb
11		 Jacksonville D F B+ A- C- 35% 23% 43% D+ D+ D- F F+ C+ A+ F A C F+ A+ A+ A+ 42% 25% 33% C+ A F C D- D- F+ D+ F+
1.07 50% 44% 41% +3 0 1.08 24% 0.8 .18 14% .60 56% .34 0.99 65% 17% 13% -13 0 0.75 37% 1.0 .37 14% .35 74% .26



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.1 0.1 0.2 4th
5th 0.1 4.5 4.4 0.6 9.6 5th
6th 2.1 9.2 1.2 0.0 12.5 6th
7th 0.1 10.2 4.8 0.0 15.2 7th
8th 2.5 14.4 0.8 17.7 8th
9th 0.0 11.5 6.3 0.1 17.9 9th
10th 3.0 15.4 0.7 19.0 10th
11th 6.7 1.1 7.9 11th
12th 0.2 0.2 12th
Total 9.8 30.5 33.8 19.5 5.6 0.8 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.8% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.7
9-9 5.6% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 5.6
8-10 19.5% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.2 19.3
7-11 33.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 33.8
6-12 30.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 30.5
5-13 9.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.8
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 16.0 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 6.3%