Howard
Mid-Eastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.8 #265
Expected Predictive Rating -5.3 #243
Pace 71.0 #122
Improvement +1.5 #112

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #326 F C+ D- C B-
Defense #155 C D B- D+ D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% #12 0.97 #351 +0.7 #152
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #189 0.64 #325 -1.4 #253
Three Pointers 33% #331 0.98 #241 -4.7 #323
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #331 -5.4 #330
Freethrows 17.9 #154 71% #238 12.8 #172
Second Chance 30.5% #186 1.12 #87 0.34 #128
Turnovers 19.0% #324
Total Offense -6.2 #326

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #85 1.20 #240 -3.0 #278
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #312 0.68 #63 +2.3 #30
Three Pointers 42% #159 1.01 #184 -0.3 #191
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #205 -1.0 #206
Freethrows 19.8 #305 71% #86 13.9 #282
Second Chance 32.4% #258 1.13 #287 0.37 #295
Turnovers 18.1% #79
Total Defense +0.4 #155

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.5% #86 1.7% #323
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -12.0% #346 0.2% #188
Possession Length 17.7 #216 16.5 #45
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #195 0.21 #313
Improvement -0.7 #226 +2.2 #59

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 39.7% 40.6% 32.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 95.2% 96.5% 85.0%
.500 or above in Conference 97.9% 98.7% 91.9%
Conference Champion 45.3% 48.3% 21.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four25.6% 25.4% 26.7%
First Round26.5% 27.5% 19.2%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Morgan St. (Home) - 88.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 31 - 12 - 4
Quad 415 - 817 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 50 Missouri L 67 - 88 11% -14  0 - 1 -13 -5 C- F C -7 D+ F A+
 Sun, Nov 9 287 Grambling St. L 70 - 73 67% -1  0 - 2 -13 -0 A- A+ F -13 F F A+
 Thu, Nov 13 347 Alcorn St. W 72 - 64 81% +5  1 - 2 -7 -4 D A+ F -2 D A+ F
 Wed, Nov 19 332 @Stetson L 60 - 64 58% -10  1 - 3 -12 -16 F F C +4 B+ C+ A+
 Sat, Nov 22 352 Niagara W 80 - 70 75% -4  2 - 3 -3 -4 F C F +1 D+ F A+
 Sun, Nov 23 3 @Duke L 56 - 93 1% -29  2 - 4 -12 -5 F C A+ -7 F B- C-
 Sat, Nov 29 288 @Mount St. Mary's L 75 - 79 44% -5  2 - 5 -8 +2 F A+ A+ -10 F F C
 Tue, Dec 9 304 N.C. A&T W 73 - 69 59% +8  3 - 5 -4 -3 A- F F -1 A+ F A-
 Sat, Dec 13 230 Hampton W 61 - 57 43% +3  4 - 5 +0 -10 D- F D +10 A+ A- D
 Tue, Dec 16 203 @Drexel W 74 - 66 28% +7  5 - 5 +8 +7 B A F +2 C B- B-
 Sat, Dec 20 125 @UNC Wilmington W 67 - 66 15% +4  6 - 5 +6 +0 D A- F +6 A+ F A
 Tue, Dec 30 60 @Northwestern L 60 - 80 6% -5  6 - 6 -8 -2 C B- F -8 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 359 @South Carolina St. L 57 - 58 73% -7  6 - 7 0 - 1 -13 -21 F D+ F +7 C- F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 330 @Maryland Eastern Shore L 57 - 69 57% +2  6 - 8 0 - 2 -20 -20 F D+ F +1 C- C+ B+
 Mon, Jan 12 355 Delaware St. W 84 - 58 85% +14  7 - 8 1 - 2 +9 +16 C A+ A+ -4 C- F A-
 Sat, Jan 17 346 @NC Central W 83 - 69 62% +5  8 - 8 2 - 2 +5 +7 F A+ D- -2 F B+ B
 Sat, Jan 24 360 Morgan St. W 81 - 68 89%
 Mon, Jan 26 364 @Coppin St. W 77 - 66 85%
 Sat, Jan 31 291 Norfolk St. W 72 - 67 67%
 Sat, Feb 7 359 South Carolina St. W 78 - 66 88%
 Mon, Feb 9 83 Yale L 70 - 80 18%
 Sat, Feb 14 330 Maryland Eastern Shore W 70 - 62 76%
 Mon, Feb 16 355 @Delaware St. W 70 - 65 70%
 Sat, Feb 21 346 NC Central W 76 - 67 80%
 Sat, Feb 28 360 @Morgan St. W 78 - 71 74%
 Mon, Mar 2 364 Coppin St. W 80 - 63 94%
 Thu, Mar 5 291 @Norfolk St. L 69 - 70 45%
Totals 16 - 11 10 - 4 -6 -6 F C+ D- +0 C D B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 3.0 14.5 19.1 8.5 45.3 1st
2nd 0.0 2.3 11.7 11.8 2.7 0.2 28.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.4 7.1 7.4 0.9 16.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.8 2.8 0.3 6.4 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.1 2.1 5th
6th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.6 5.3 12.4 22.5 27.2 21.8 8.7 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2 97.9% 8.5    7.8 0.7
11-3 87.5% 19.1    13.7 5.2 0.2
10-4 53.4% 14.5    5.0 7.3 2.2 0.1
9-5 13.5% 3.0    0.3 1.1 1.2 0.4 0.0
8-6 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 45.3% 45.3 26.8 14.4 3.6 0.5 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2 8.7% 59.7% 59.7% 15.4 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.8 3.5
11-3 21.8% 50.5% 50.5% 15.9 0.1 1.3 9.7 10.8
10-4 27.2% 40.3% 40.3% 16.0 0.0 0.4 10.6 16.2
9-5 22.5% 34.2% 34.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1 7.5 14.8
8-6 12.4% 27.2% 27.2% 16.0 0.0 3.3 9.0
7-7 5.3% 20.6% 20.6% 16.0 1.1 4.2
6-8 1.6% 17.3% 17.3% 16.0 0.3 1.3
5-9 0.4% 11.3% 11.3% 16.0 0.0 0.4
4-10 0.1% 0.1
3-11 0.0% 0.0
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 39.7% 39.7% 0.0% 15.9 60.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.3% 100.0% 14.5 7.1 40.1 49.1 3.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%