Duke
Atlantic Coast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+23.0#2
Expected Predictive Rating+23.4#2
Pace65.1#266
Improvement-1.9#274

Offense
Total Offense+11.6#5
First Shot+9.4#8
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#52
Layup/Dunks+4.1#48
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#261
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.5#35
Freethrows+1.3#99
Improvement+0.6#147

Defense
Total Defense+11.5#4
First Shot+8.6#9
After Offensive Rebounds+2.8#11
Layups/Dunks+7.5#13
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#243
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#142
Freethrows+0.5#144
Improvement-2.5#305
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 15.0% 15.5% 8.5%
#1 Seed 68.8% 69.6% 57.5%
Top 2 Seed 96.7% 97.0% 92.9%
Top 4 Seed 99.9% 99.9% 99.7%
Top 6 Seed 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 1.4 1.3 1.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 96.6% 97.3% 87.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round99.3% 99.3% 99.3%
Sweet Sixteen80.9% 81.1% 77.4%
Elite Eight60.1% 60.3% 57.1%
Final Four41.4% 41.8% 36.8%
Championship Game26.7% 27.2% 20.5%
National Champion17.0% 17.4% 11.6%

Next Game: Syracuse (Away) - 93.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 35 - 3
Quad 1b3 - 18 - 3
Quad 27 - 015 - 3
Quad 310 - 025 - 3
Quad 45 - 030 - 3


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 199   Maine W 96-62 99%     1 - 0 +29.8 +19.6 +8.6
  Nov 08, 2024 297   Army W 100-58 99%     2 - 0 +32.1 +21.1 +10.4
  Nov 12, 2024 22   Kentucky L 72-77 76%     2 - 1 +10.7 -1.7 +12.7
  Nov 16, 2024 151   Wofford W 86-35 98%     3 - 1 +49.3 +17.4 +36.5
  Nov 22, 2024 10   @ Arizona W 69-55 61%     4 - 1 +34.3 +7.9 +26.8
  Nov 26, 2024 7   Kansas L 72-75 65%     4 - 2 +16.0 +12.1 +3.8
  Nov 29, 2024 162   Seattle W 70-48 98%     5 - 2 +19.7 -0.7 +21.2
  Dec 04, 2024 1   Auburn W 84-78 59%     6 - 2 +26.7 +28.0 -0.6
  Dec 08, 2024 27   @ Louisville W 76-65 72%     7 - 2 1 - 0 +27.9 +13.6 +14.8
  Dec 10, 2024 291   Incarnate Word W 72-46 99%     8 - 2 +16.4 +1.2 +18.6
  Dec 17, 2024 81   George Mason W 68-47 94%     9 - 2 +25.8 +9.5 +18.7
  Dec 21, 2024 99   @ Georgia Tech W 82-56 92%     10 - 2 2 - 0 +33.3 +21.9 +13.9
  Dec 31, 2024 118   Virginia Tech W 88-65 97%     11 - 2 3 - 0 +23.1 +22.0 +3.2
  Jan 04, 2025 42   @ SMU W 89-62 80%     12 - 2 4 - 0 +41.1 +28.7 +14.4
  Jan 07, 2025 47   Pittsburgh W 76-47 91%     13 - 2 5 - 0 +37.4 +11.3 +28.4
  Jan 11, 2025 83   Notre Dame W 86-78 95%     14 - 2 6 - 0 +12.8 +20.6 -7.2
  Jan 14, 2025 169   Miami (FL) W 89-54 98%     15 - 2 7 - 0 +32.4 +19.4 +16.7
  Jan 18, 2025 176   @ Boston College W 88-63 97%     16 - 2 8 - 0 +26.7 +19.0 +9.0
  Jan 25, 2025 58   @ Wake Forest W 63-56 84%     17 - 2 9 - 0 +19.2 +1.4 +18.0
  Jan 27, 2025 91   North Carolina St. W 74-64 95%     18 - 2 10 - 0 +13.6 +5.8 +8.2
  Feb 01, 2025 36   North Carolina W 87-70 88%     19 - 2 11 - 0 +27.2 +25.8 +2.8
  Feb 05, 2025 104   @ Syracuse W 81-65 93%    
  Feb 08, 2025 32   @ Clemson W 71-64 72%    
  Feb 12, 2025 116   California W 84-61 98%    
  Feb 15, 2025 78   Stanford W 80-62 96%    
  Feb 17, 2025 97   @ Virginia W 71-55 92%    
  Feb 22, 2025 13   Illinois W 79-73 71%    
  Feb 25, 2025 169   @ Miami (FL) W 86-65 97%    
  Mar 01, 2025 82   Florida St. W 82-64 96%    
  Mar 03, 2025 58   Wake Forest W 76-60 93%    
  Mar 08, 2025 36   @ North Carolina W 79-71 76%    
Projected Record 28 - 3 19 - 1




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 2.3 16.0 37.6 40.6 96.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.0 2.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 4.0 17.0 37.6 40.6 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 40.6    40.6
19-1 100.0% 37.6    35.8 1.8
18-2 94.3% 16.0    10.8 4.7 0.6
17-3 58.1% 2.3    0.9 1.1 0.3 0.0
16-4 11.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 8.3% 0.0    0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total 96.6% 96.6 88.0 7.7 0.9 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 40.6% 100.0% 70.9% 29.1% 1.2 31.6 8.8 0.3 100.0%
19-1 37.6% 100.0% 66.4% 33.6% 1.3 26.0 10.9 0.7 0.0 100.0%
18-2 17.0% 100.0% 59.4% 40.6% 1.5 9.5 6.3 1.0 0.1 100.0%
17-3 4.0% 100.0% 55.1% 44.9% 1.9 1.5 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.7% 100.0% 53.7% 46.3% 2.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 100.0%
15-5 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 66.4% 33.6% 1.4 68.8 27.9 2.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 21.3% 100.0% 1.2 82.7 17.1 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.8% 100.0% 1.3 73.2 26.0 0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.8% 100.0% 1.3 74.2 25.1 0.7