Florida St.
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.3#82
Expected Predictive Rating+5.4#91
Pace74.5#41
Improvement-4.4#335

Offense
Total Offense+3.0#94
First Shot+2.5#102
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#150
Layup/Dunks+3.7#57
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#166
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.7#322
Freethrows+3.4#26
Improvement-1.7#285

Defense
Total Defense+4.3#65
First Shot+4.0#60
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#159
Layups/Dunks+4.1#49
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#97
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#195
Freethrows-1.2#266
Improvement-2.7#313
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.0% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.5% 0.7% 0.2%
Average Seed 11.2 11.2 11.2
.500 or above 80.7% 90.6% 65.3%
.500 or above in Conference 10.5% 15.4% 2.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.1% 1.4%
First Four0.5% 0.7% 0.2%
First Round0.5% 0.7% 0.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Notre Dame (Home) - 61.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 31 - 7
Quad 23 - 64 - 12
Quad 38 - 211 - 14
Quad 46 - 117 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 244   Northern Kentucky W 74-62 91%     1 - 0 +4.6 -6.3 +9.8
  Nov 09, 2024 192   Rice W 73-65 80%     2 - 0 +6.5 -2.2 +8.5
  Nov 12, 2024 247   Tarleton St. W 72-52 91%     3 - 0 +12.4 -2.8 +14.4
  Nov 15, 2024 4   Florida L 74-87 17%     3 - 1 +4.4 +4.1 +1.0
  Nov 19, 2024 174   Hofstra W 79-61 83%     4 - 1 +15.0 +9.9 +5.3
  Nov 22, 2024 125   Temple W 78-69 69%     5 - 1 +11.1 +0.7 +10.0
  Nov 24, 2024 152   Massachusetts W 92-59 74%     6 - 1 +33.7 +17.8 +14.7
  Nov 26, 2024 350   Western Carolina W 91-57 97%     7 - 1 +18.7 +5.5 +10.4
  Dec 03, 2024 71   @ LSU L 75-85 39%     7 - 2 +0.3 +5.1 -4.5
  Dec 07, 2024 91   @ North Carolina St. L 74-84 OT 45%     7 - 3 0 - 1 -1.4 +6.7 -8.2
  Dec 14, 2024 141   Tulane W 77-64 72%     8 - 3 +14.2 +6.4 +8.0
  Dec 17, 2024 205   Winthrop W 82-64 87%     9 - 3 +13.3 -1.7 +13.5
  Dec 21, 2024 27   Louisville L 76-90 33%     9 - 4 0 - 2 -2.1 +10.5 -13.1
  Jan 04, 2025 104   Syracuse W 90-74 70%     10 - 4 1 - 2 +17.9 +16.9 +0.7
  Jan 08, 2025 169   @ Miami (FL) W 80-65 68%     11 - 4 2 - 2 +17.3 -0.1 +16.8
  Jan 11, 2025 32   @ Clemson L 57-77 20%     11 - 5 2 - 3 -3.6 -1.4 -4.6
  Jan 15, 2025 47   Pittsburgh W 82-70 46%     12 - 5 3 - 3 +20.4 +2.6 +16.5
  Jan 18, 2025 99   Georgia Tech W 91-78 68%     13 - 5 4 - 3 +15.4 +17.9 -2.9
  Jan 22, 2025 116   @ California L 68-77 58%     13 - 6 4 - 4 -3.7 +0.6 -4.9
  Jan 25, 2025 78   @ Stanford L 71-78 40%     13 - 7 4 - 5 +2.9 +3.4 -0.7
  Jan 29, 2025 118   Virginia Tech L 66-76 75%     13 - 8 4 - 6 -9.9 -6.6 -3.5
  Feb 01, 2025 176   @ Boston College L 76-77 71%     13 - 9 4 - 7 +0.7 +0.4 +0.3
  Feb 04, 2025 83   Notre Dame W 74-72 61%    
  Feb 12, 2025 58   @ Wake Forest L 69-74 30%    
  Feb 15, 2025 32   Clemson L 70-74 37%    
  Feb 19, 2025 169   Miami (FL) W 85-75 83%    
  Feb 22, 2025 27   @ Louisville L 72-82 17%    
  Feb 24, 2025 36   North Carolina L 78-81 42%    
  Mar 01, 2025 2   @ Duke L 64-82 4%    
  Mar 04, 2025 97   @ Virginia L 65-66 47%    
  Mar 08, 2025 42   SMU L 77-79 45%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 8 - 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.1 0.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 0.8 0.0 2.5 7th
8th 0.0 1.9 3.6 0.5 0.0 6.0 8th
9th 0.0 2.0 7.4 2.4 0.1 11.8 9th
10th 0.6 6.9 5.8 0.4 13.6 10th
11th 0.0 3.2 9.6 1.9 0.0 14.6 11th
12th 0.4 8.5 5.4 0.2 14.4 12th
13th 2.8 9.0 1.3 13.0 13th
14th 0.3 6.4 3.7 0.1 10.5 14th
15th 0.0 1.9 5.0 0.7 7.7 15th
16th 0.3 2.5 1.2 0.0 4.0 16th
17th 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.6 17th
18th 0.1 0.0 0.1 18th
Total 0.6 5.0 15.9 25.6 25.3 17.1 8.0 2.2 0.3 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0% 0.0
12-8 0.3% 20.6% 20.6% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 20.6%
11-9 2.2% 7.9% 1.9% 6.0% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.0 6.2%
10-10 8.0% 3.0% 0.2% 2.7% 11.2 0.2 0.1 7.8 2.7%
9-11 17.1% 1.0% 0.6% 0.4% 11.3 0.1 0.1 16.9 0.4%
8-12 25.3% 0.2% 0.2% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.2
7-13 25.6% 0.2% 0.2% 11.6 0.0 0.0 25.5
6-14 15.9% 0.3% 0.3% 12.5 0.0 0.0 15.8
5-15 5.0% 5.0
4-16 0.6% 0.6
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.8% 0.3% 0.5% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 99.2 0.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%