Florida St.
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.7#82
Expected Predictive Rating+6.2#83
Pace73.5#55
Improvement-4.2#328

Offense
Total Offense+2.1#114
First Shot+1.8#117
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#168
Layup/Dunks+3.4#63
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#171
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#324
Freethrows+3.2#32
Improvement-2.1#279

Defense
Total Defense+4.6#61
First Shot+4.3#60
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#149
Layups/Dunks+4.1#49
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#96
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#190
Freethrows-1.0#259
Improvement-2.1#286
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.6 11.6 n/a
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 7
Quad 22 - 63 - 13
Quad 37 - 110 - 14
Quad 47 - 118 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 222   Northern Kentucky W 74-62 88%     1 - 0 +5.9 -7.6 +12.4
  Nov 09, 2024 191   Rice W 73-65 79%     2 - 0 +6.4 -3.0 +9.2
  Nov 12, 2024 275   Tarleton St. W 72-52 92%     3 - 0 +10.9 -2.7 +12.8
  Nov 15, 2024 3   Florida L 74-87 10%     3 - 1 +7.7 +5.1 +3.4
  Nov 19, 2024 215   Hofstra W 79-61 88%     4 - 1 +12.2 +8.9 +3.6
  Nov 22, 2024 155   Temple W 78-69 73%     5 - 1 +9.3 -1.4 +10.2
  Nov 24, 2024 190   Massachusetts W 92-59 78%     6 - 1 +31.5 +16.9 +13.4
  Nov 26, 2024 339   Western Carolina W 91-57 96%     7 - 1 +19.6 +4.8 +12.0
  Dec 03, 2024 80   @ LSU L 75-85 38%     7 - 2 -0.2 +5.3 -5.1
  Dec 07, 2024 106   @ North Carolina St. L 74-84 OT 50%     7 - 3 0 - 1 -3.4 +6.2 -9.7
  Dec 14, 2024 141   Tulane W 77-64 71%     8 - 3 +14.0 +5.1 +9.0
  Dec 17, 2024 161   Winthrop W 82-64 81%     9 - 3 +15.2 -0.4 +14.1
  Dec 21, 2024 23   Louisville L 76-90 27%     9 - 4 0 - 2 -0.8 +12.2 -13.5
  Jan 04, 2025 102   Syracuse W 90-74 69%     10 - 4 1 - 2 +17.6 +15.3 +2.1
  Jan 08, 2025 174   @ Miami (FL) W 80-65 68%     11 - 4 2 - 2 +16.9 +0.1 +16.3
  Jan 11, 2025 21   @ Clemson L 57-77 13%     11 - 5 2 - 3 -0.8 +0.0 -3.3
  Jan 15, 2025 60   Pittsburgh W 82-70 50%     12 - 5 3 - 3 +18.7 +2.9 +14.6
  Jan 18, 2025 95   Georgia Tech W 91-78 66%     13 - 5 4 - 3 +15.4 +18.4 -3.3
  Jan 22, 2025 105   @ California L 68-77 50%     13 - 6 4 - 4 -2.3 +2.4 -5.3
  Jan 25, 2025 84   @ Stanford L 71-78 40%     13 - 7 4 - 5 +2.4 +4.9 -2.7
  Jan 29, 2025 134   Virginia Tech L 66-76 78%     13 - 8 4 - 6 -11.3 -5.6 -5.9
  Feb 01, 2025 168   @ Boston College L 76-77 67%     13 - 9 4 - 7 +1.3 +2.6 -1.3
  Feb 04, 2025 93   Notre Dame W 67-60 65%     14 - 9 5 - 7 +9.8 -4.6 +14.5
  Feb 12, 2025 61   @ Wake Forest W 72-70 30%     15 - 9 6 - 7 +14.0 +10.1 +4.0
  Feb 15, 2025 21   Clemson L 46-72 25%     15 - 10 6 - 8 -12.3 -16.4 +1.7
  Feb 19, 2025 174   Miami (FL) W 74-66 83%     16 - 10 7 - 8 +4.4 -8.1 +12.2
  Feb 22, 2025 23   @ Louisville L 81-89 13%     16 - 11 7 - 9 +10.7 +14.5 -3.6
  Feb 24, 2025 36   North Carolina L 85-96 35%     16 - 12 7 - 10 -0.4 +19.1 -20.0
  Mar 01, 2025 1   @ Duke L 65-100 3%     16 - 13 7 - 11 -5.6 +4.0 -9.1
  Mar 04, 2025 99   @ Virginia L 57-60 47%     16 - 14 7 - 12 +4.5 -3.5 +7.5
  Mar 08, 2025 49   SMU W 76-69 44%     17 - 14 8 - 12 +15.3 +4.3 +10.9
  Mar 11, 2025 102   Syracuse W 78-76 59%    
Projected Record 18 - 14 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 100.0 100.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12 100.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 11.6 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 11.6 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7% 1.4% 11.0 1.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.6%
Lose Out 41.1%