SMU
Atlantic Coast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.0#49
Expected Predictive Rating+10.6#51
Pace71.5#83
Improvement-3.0#302

Offense
Total Offense+7.8#29
First Shot+5.5#50
After Offensive Rebound+2.3#46
Layup/Dunks+4.4#42
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#323
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#164
Freethrows+3.3#29
Improvement-1.3#255

Defense
Total Defense+3.2#88
First Shot+2.7#88
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#129
Layups/Dunks+4.6#43
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#221
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#235
Freethrows-0.8#249
Improvement-1.6#269
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.3% 17.6% 6.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 13.7% 16.7% 6.6%
Average Seed 11.1 11.1 11.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four12.5% 15.0% 6.6%
First Round7.5% 9.5% 2.9%
Second Round2.4% 3.0% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.9% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 26 - 57 - 10
Quad 311 - 018 - 10
Quad 45 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 275   Tarleton St. W 96-62 96%     1 - 0 +24.9 +18.9 +4.2
  Nov 07, 2024 322   Florida A&M W 102-73 97%     2 - 0 +16.6 +11.7 +2.0
  Nov 11, 2024 158   UNC Greensboro W 81-68 89%     3 - 0 +10.5 +3.5 +6.4
  Nov 15, 2024 72   @ Butler L 70-81 52%     3 - 1 -0.5 -0.1 -0.4
  Nov 18, 2024 358   Prairie View W 110-69 99%     4 - 1 +22.3 +13.3 +3.5
  Nov 22, 2024 33   Mississippi St. L 79-84 51%     4 - 2 +5.9 +9.5 -3.6
  Nov 26, 2024 162   California Baptist W 79-77 85%     5 - 2 +1.9 +14.1 -12.0
  Nov 27, 2024 120   Washington St. W 77-60 79%     6 - 2 +19.6 +11.9 +9.5
  Dec 03, 2024 288   Alabama St. W 101-72 96%     7 - 2 +18.9 +20.3 -2.5
  Dec 07, 2024 99   Virginia W 63-51 80%     8 - 2 1 - 0 +14.0 -3.1 +18.4
  Dec 14, 2024 80   LSU W 74-64 65%     9 - 2 +17.0 +3.3 +13.4
  Dec 21, 2024 168   @ Boston College W 103-77 80%     10 - 2 2 - 0 +28.3 +29.4 -1.7
  Dec 29, 2024 227   Longwood W 98-82 94%     11 - 2 +9.8 +12.6 -4.2
  Jan 04, 2025 1   Duke L 62-89 12%     11 - 3 2 - 1 -3.1 +3.8 -8.9
  Jan 07, 2025 36   @ North Carolina L 67-82 31%     11 - 4 2 - 2 +1.1 -4.6 +6.7
  Jan 11, 2025 95   Georgia Tech W 93-71 79%     12 - 4 3 - 2 +24.4 +16.5 +6.3
  Jan 15, 2025 99   @ Virginia W 54-52 63%     13 - 4 4 - 2 +9.5 -8.5 +18.3
  Jan 18, 2025 174   @ Miami (FL) W 117-74 81%     14 - 4 5 - 2 +44.9 +40.8 +4.3
  Jan 21, 2025 23   Louisville L 73-98 42%     14 - 5 5 - 3 -11.8 +9.7 -22.6
  Jan 25, 2025 106   @ North Carolina St. W 63-57 67%     15 - 5 6 - 3 +12.6 -0.9 +14.0
  Jan 29, 2025 105   California W 76-65 82%     16 - 5 7 - 3 +12.2 +1.2 +10.7
  Feb 01, 2025 84   Stanford W 85-61 75%     17 - 5 8 - 3 +27.9 +15.8 +12.4
  Feb 05, 2025 134   @ Virginia Tech W 81-75 74%     18 - 5 9 - 3 +10.2 +19.9 -9.0
  Feb 11, 2025 60   Pittsburgh W 83-63 66%     19 - 5 10 - 3 +26.7 +15.4 +12.0
  Feb 15, 2025 61   Wake Forest L 66-77 67%     19 - 6 10 - 4 -4.5 +3.7 -9.1
  Feb 19, 2025 93   @ Notre Dame W 97-73 60%     20 - 6 11 - 4 +32.3 +25.3 +6.4
  Feb 22, 2025 21   Clemson L 69-79 40%     20 - 7 11 - 5 +3.7 +11.3 -9.0
  Feb 26, 2025 105   @ California W 81-77 66%     21 - 7 12 - 5 +10.7 +6.9 +3.6
  Mar 01, 2025 84   @ Stanford L 68-73 56%     21 - 8 12 - 6 +4.4 +9.7 -5.9
  Mar 04, 2025 102   Syracuse W 77-75 81%     22 - 8 13 - 6 +3.6 +8.2 -4.5
  Mar 08, 2025 82   @ Florida St. L 69-76 56%     22 - 9 13 - 7 +2.5 +1.5 +1.0
Projected Record 22 - 9 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 100.0 100.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 100.0% 14.3% 0.7% 13.6% 11.1 0.2 1.0 10.0 3.1 85.7 13.7%
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 14.3% 0.7% 13.6% 11.1 0.2 1.0 10.0 3.1 85.7 13.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 10.2 24.3 35.7 40.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 6.8% 41.2% 10.8 1.0 7.8 30.4 2.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 12.5% 21.7% 11.1 1.3 17.2 3.3
Lose Out 29.9% 6.6% 11.3 4.7 1.9