SMU
Atlantic Coast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.5#40
Expected Predictive Rating+12.4#48
Pace74.1#58
Improvement+2.3#62

Offense
Total Offense+8.1#23
First Shot+5.4#52
After Offensive Rebound+2.8#33
Layup/Dunks+4.6#36
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#323
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#168
Freethrows+3.2#28
Improvement+1.1#104

Defense
Total Defense+3.4#89
First Shot+2.7#97
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#123
Layups/Dunks+4.6#43
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#222
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#231
Freethrows-0.7#242
Improvement+1.2#81
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 1.0% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 2.1% 5.0% 1.1%
Top 6 Seed 6.6% 14.0% 4.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 51.2% 69.8% 44.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 48.3% 67.0% 42.3%
Average Seed 8.9 8.3 9.2
.500 or above 99.6% 99.9% 99.5%
.500 or above in Conference 93.8% 97.9% 92.4%
Conference Champion 5.6% 16.1% 2.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four12.4% 10.8% 13.0%
First Round45.0% 64.4% 38.5%
Second Round23.0% 34.4% 19.2%
Sweet Sixteen7.2% 11.8% 5.7%
Elite Eight2.9% 5.2% 2.1%
Final Four0.9% 1.8% 0.7%
Championship Game0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Next Game: Duke (Home) - 25.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 32 - 5
Quad 27 - 410 - 9
Quad 38 - 118 - 10
Quad 46 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 289   Tarleton St. W 96-62 97%     1 - 0 +24.0 +16.7 +5.5
  Nov 07, 2024 357   Florida A&M W 102-73 99%     2 - 0 +12.3 +13.3 -4.0
  Nov 11, 2024 159   UNC Greensboro W 81-68 91%     3 - 0 +10.0 +3.9 +5.5
  Nov 15, 2024 70   @ Butler L 70-81 52%     3 - 1 -0.1 +2.0 -2.1
  Nov 18, 2024 340   Prairie View W 110-69 98%     4 - 1 +26.7 +12.5 +8.7
  Nov 22, 2024 25   Mississippi St. L 79-84 50%     4 - 2 +6.4 +10.3 -3.8
  Nov 26, 2024 165   California Baptist W 79-77 86%     5 - 2 +1.7 +10.9 -9.0
  Nov 27, 2024 74   Washington St. W 77-60 65%     6 - 2 +24.6 +16.8 +9.7
  Dec 03, 2024 290   Alabama St. W 101-72 97%     7 - 2 +19.0 +18.0 -0.1
  Dec 07, 2024 93   Virginia W 63-51 80%     8 - 2 1 - 0 +14.6 +2.1 +13.9
  Dec 14, 2024 55   LSU W 74-64 57%     9 - 2 +19.7 +3.9 +15.5
  Dec 21, 2024 176   @ Boston College W 103-77 81%     10 - 2 2 - 0 +28.2 +28.1 -0.4
  Dec 29, 2024 177   Longwood W 98-82 92%     11 - 2 +12.2 +15.5 -4.7
  Jan 04, 2025 2   Duke L 71-78 25%    
  Jan 07, 2025 24   @ North Carolina L 83-89 29%    
  Jan 11, 2025 109   Georgia Tech W 84-73 83%    
  Jan 15, 2025 93   @ Virginia W 67-64 61%    
  Jan 18, 2025 100   @ Miami (FL) W 82-78 64%    
  Jan 21, 2025 54   Louisville W 82-77 66%    
  Jan 25, 2025 79   @ North Carolina St. W 76-75 55%    
  Jan 29, 2025 126   California W 88-75 88%    
  Feb 01, 2025 95   Stanford W 83-74 79%    
  Feb 05, 2025 133   @ Virginia Tech W 78-71 74%    
  Feb 11, 2025 29   Pittsburgh W 79-78 55%    
  Feb 15, 2025 88   Wake Forest W 78-70 77%    
  Feb 19, 2025 81   @ Notre Dame W 76-74 56%    
  Feb 22, 2025 36   Clemson W 76-74 58%    
  Feb 26, 2025 126   @ California W 85-78 73%    
  Mar 01, 2025 95   @ Stanford W 80-77 60%    
  Mar 04, 2025 103   Syracuse W 87-77 81%    
  Mar 07, 2025 73   @ Florida St. W 81-80 53%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.0 1.6 0.6 0.1 5.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.7 5.2 6.5 3.8 1.1 0.1 18.5 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.1 6.7 6.6 2.7 0.3 18.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.6 6.3 5.6 1.7 0.1 15.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 4.6 5.4 1.8 0.1 0.0 12.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.6 4.4 1.6 0.1 9.0 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 3.6 1.6 0.2 6.7 7th
8th 0.3 2.1 2.1 0.3 0.0 4.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 1.8 0.4 0.0 3.0 9th
10th 0.2 1.2 0.7 0.0 2.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.1 1.6 11th
12th 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.7 13th
14th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 3.4 6.1 9.4 12.7 15.8 16.0 13.9 10.3 6.0 2.7 0.7 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 92.6% 0.6    0.5 0.2
18-2 60.9% 1.6    1.0 0.6 0.0
17-3 32.9% 2.0    0.7 1.0 0.2 0.0
16-4 9.4% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1
15-5 1.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.6% 5.6 2.5 2.4 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 29.2% 70.8% 2.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.7% 100.0% 22.9% 77.1% 3.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 2.7% 99.7% 16.1% 83.6% 5.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
17-3 6.0% 97.2% 11.8% 85.5% 6.9 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.4 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.2 96.9%
16-4 10.3% 90.0% 11.0% 79.0% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.0 2.6 1.7 0.3 0.0 1.0 88.8%
15-5 13.9% 80.3% 8.4% 71.9% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.8 3.2 3.5 1.6 0.0 2.7 78.5%
14-6 16.0% 57.9% 6.0% 51.9% 9.9 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.8 3.5 3.0 0.1 6.7 55.2%
13-7 15.8% 42.5% 3.2% 39.4% 10.4 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.3 3.4 0.2 9.1 40.7%
12-8 12.7% 27.1% 2.4% 24.7% 10.6 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.1 0.1 9.3 25.3%
11-9 9.4% 15.2% 1.3% 13.9% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 0.1 8.0 14.1%
10-10 6.1% 6.6% 0.5% 6.1% 10.9 0.1 0.3 0.0 5.7 6.2%
9-11 3.4% 2.3% 0.6% 1.6% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.3 1.7%
8-12 1.6% 0.9% 0.4% 0.5% 11.6 0.0 0.0 1.6 0.5%
7-13 0.8% 0.8
6-14 0.3% 0.3
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 51.2% 5.6% 45.6% 8.9 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.7 2.9 4.3 6.1 9.2 12.4 11.8 0.6 48.9 48.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 2.3 25.8 35.5 25.8 12.9