Radford
Big South
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.1#204
Expected Predictive Rating+1.0#154
Pace61.1#346
Improvement-1.6#259

Offense
Total Offense+1.3#143
First Shot+0.2#167
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#117
Layup/Dunks-2.3#267
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#143
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#236
Freethrows+3.9#16
Improvement-0.6#216

Defense
Total Defense-3.4#274
First Shot-3.9#297
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#128
Layups/Dunks+3.3#67
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#283
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#316
Freethrows-2.4#336
Improvement-1.0#240
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.1% 10.4% 8.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.8 15.1
.500 or above 95.6% 99.2% 93.4%
.500 or above in Conference 80.5% 93.2% 72.6%
Conference Champion 1.5% 3.9% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.4%
First Round9.0% 10.3% 8.1%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: High Point (Home) - 38.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 33 - 43 - 10
Quad 414 - 318 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 47   @ Pittsburgh L 56-96 8%     0 - 1 -26.7 -13.1 -13.2
  Nov 08, 2024 208   William & Mary W 89-77 60%     1 - 1 +7.1 +10.7 -3.6
  Nov 12, 2024 275   Old Dominion W 87-75 74%     2 - 1 +3.2 +10.4 -7.2
  Nov 16, 2024 230   @ Evansville W 92-81 47%     3 - 1 +9.5 +31.1 -20.4
  Nov 21, 2024 32   @ Clemson L 51-79 5%     3 - 2 -11.6 -9.7 -4.4
  Nov 25, 2024 359   Chicago St. W 63-48 87%     4 - 2 +0.8 -5.5 +8.1
  Nov 26, 2024 149   Purdue Fort Wayne W 69-56 39%     5 - 2 +13.9 -1.0 +15.9
  Dec 01, 2024 336   @ St. Francis (PA) W 79-70 74%     6 - 2 +0.0 +10.4 -9.5
  Dec 05, 2024 295   @ NC Central W 70-67 60%     7 - 2 -1.9 -7.7 +5.8
  Dec 08, 2024 251   Bucknell W 74-70 OT 71%     8 - 2 -3.7 -4.1 +0.2
  Dec 14, 2024 84   @ Utah L 63-81 14%     8 - 3 -8.4 -3.7 -5.0
  Dec 17, 2024 77   @ Colorado St. L 68-78 13%     8 - 4 -0.1 +9.0 -10.2
  Dec 22, 2024 79   @ South Carolina L 48-74 13%     8 - 5 -16.2 -13.6 -5.0
  Jan 02, 2025 107   @ High Point L 58-76 21%     8 - 6 0 - 1 -11.5 -5.9 -8.9
  Jan 04, 2025 205   Winthrop W 87-67 60%     9 - 6 1 - 1 +15.3 +14.7 +1.6
  Jan 11, 2025 346   @ South Carolina Upstate W 80-67 76%     10 - 6 2 - 1 +3.5 +9.2 -4.6
  Jan 15, 2025 236   Gardner-Webb W 79-75 68%     11 - 6 3 - 1 -2.9 +5.7 -8.5
  Jan 18, 2025 285   @ Charleston Southern L 54-58 58%     11 - 7 3 - 2 -8.3 -14.2 +5.5
  Jan 22, 2025 190   Longwood L 74-77 57%     11 - 8 3 - 3 -6.9 +5.8 -13.0
  Jan 25, 2025 283   @ Presbyterian W 82-69 58%     12 - 8 4 - 3 +8.8 +23.3 -11.7
  Jan 29, 2025 172   @ UNC Asheville L 65-72 34%     12 - 9 4 - 4 -4.9 -0.4 -5.4
  Feb 01, 2025 346   South Carolina Upstate W 79-69 87%     13 - 9 5 - 4 -4.5 +6.8 -10.2
  Feb 05, 2025 107   High Point L 72-76 38%    
  Feb 08, 2025 190   @ Longwood L 71-74 36%    
  Feb 12, 2025 205   @ Winthrop L 75-77 39%    
  Feb 19, 2025 172   UNC Asheville W 74-73 55%    
  Feb 22, 2025 283   Presbyterian W 72-65 75%    
  Feb 26, 2025 236   @ Gardner-Webb L 72-73 47%    
  Mar 01, 2025 285   Charleston Southern W 73-66 76%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 0.7 1.5 1st
2nd 0.3 3.1 4.0 0.4 7.9 2nd
3rd 1.2 10.8 13.8 2.7 0.0 28.6 3rd
4th 0.5 10.1 13.3 2.0 25.9 4th
5th 0.1 5.5 12.2 2.5 0.0 20.3 5th
6th 1.5 7.2 2.4 0.0 11.1 6th
7th 0.2 2.7 1.4 0.1 4.3 7th
8th 0.3 0.3 0.5 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.4 4.6 14.5 26.0 26.9 19.0 7.5 1.1 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 63.1% 0.7    0.1 0.4 0.2
11-5 10.2% 0.8    0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 1.5% 1.5 0.2 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 1.1% 22.5% 22.5% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.9
11-5 7.5% 14.5% 14.5% 14.4 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 6.4
10-6 19.0% 13.7% 13.7% 14.8 0.0 0.8 1.6 0.2 16.4
9-7 26.9% 9.1% 9.1% 15.1 0.0 0.3 1.7 0.5 24.5
8-8 26.0% 7.0% 7.0% 15.2 0.2 1.1 0.6 24.2
7-9 14.5% 5.0% 5.0% 15.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 13.8
6-10 4.6% 4.2% 4.2% 15.8 0.0 0.2 4.4
5-11 0.4% 0.4
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 9.1% 9.1% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.2 1.8 90.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 13.5 8.0 36.0 52.0 4.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%