High Point
Big South
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +5.3 #98
Expected Predictive Rating +2.8 #123
Pace 72.0 #94
Improvement -3.3 #317

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #59 B- B A- A- B+
Defense #184 C- C- A- C D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #80 1.26 #75 +4.5 #44
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #302 0.72 #227 -2.8 #310
Three Pointers 43% #142 1.00 #200 +0.8 #149
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #103 +2.5 #110
Freethrows 20.7 #29 75% #115 15.5 #29
Second Chance 31.4% #157 1.20 #29 0.38 #68
Turnovers 13.7% #35
Total Offense +5.7 #59

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #162 1.19 #226 -1.2 #219
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #297 0.81 #269 +1.0 #113
Three Pointers 44% #99 1.00 #173 -1.2 #232
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #219 -1.4 #223
Freethrows 16.8 #161 73% #204 12.4 #169
Second Chance 31.5% #224 1.10 #266 0.35 #250
Turnovers 19.5% #40
Total Defense -0.4 #184

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.1% #53 1.2% #279
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.2% #128 1.5% #207
Possession Length 16.0 #59 18.1 #303
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 #26 0.16 #148
Improvement -3.1 #335 -0.2 #204

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 52.0% 53.1% 48.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.7 13.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 76.7% 82.0% 60.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round52.0% 53.1% 48.4%
Second Round5.6% 6.0% 4.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 0.9% 0.9%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Radford (Away) - 75.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 35 - 35 - 4
Quad 420 - 225 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 165 Furman W 97 - 71 71% +17  1 - 0 +25 +21 A+ C A+ +4 C- C+ A+
 Tue, Nov 11 292 Jacksonville W 85 - 64 92% +11  2 - 0 +10 +10 F C+ A+ +1 B C A
 Fri, Nov 14 117 @UAB L 74 - 91 48% -3  2 - 1 -11 -4 D- D+ D- -6 F A+ B
 Mon, Nov 17 344 Canisius W 93 - 50 96% +25  3 - 1 +28 +20 A+ A+ A+ +10 A+ F A+
 Thu, Nov 20 151 Illinois-Chicago W 90 - 80 68% +6  4 - 1 +11 +15 A+ C A- -5 D F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 223 Incarnate Word W 91 - 80 80% +5  5 - 1 +7 +23 B+ A+ A+ -15 C- F B
 Sat, Nov 29 289 Western Carolina W 93 - 73 92% +7  6 - 1 +10 +8 A+ F F +0 F A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 146 Southern Illinois L 84 - 86 76% +3  6 - 2 -4 +8 C+ C+ B+ -12 C F C
 Fri, Dec 5 336 NJIT W 89 - 72 95% +12  7 - 2 +3 +7 F A+ A- -5 F C A+
 Sun, Dec 14 206 Appalachian St. L 78 - 86 OT 78% -2  7 - 3 -11 -1 D- F A -9 F A+ C-
 Fri, Dec 19 197 La Salle W 84 - 72 84% +8  8 - 3 +6 +14 A B+ A+ -7 C B C
 Mon, Dec 22 343 Bryant W 93 - 47 96% +27  9 - 3 +31 +23 A+ A+ F +12 B D+ A+
 Wed, Dec 31 205 @UNC Asheville W 87 - 69 69% +11  10 - 3 1 - 0 +18 +19 A+ A+ D+ +0 B+ D F
 Sat, Jan 3 262 Longwood W 80 - 67 90% +7  11 - 3 2 - 0 +4 +7 C- A- B -2 F D+ A
 Wed, Jan 7 363 Gardner-Webb W 104 - 49 99% +38  12 - 3 3 - 0 +33 +8 D- B+ A- +19 A+ C A+
 Sat, Jan 10 234 @Charleston Southern W 84 - 82 OT 73% -2  13 - 3 4 - 0 +1 -0 D D C +1 B- B- D
 Wed, Jan 14 130 @Winthrop L 75 - 92 52% -15  13 - 4 4 - 1 -12 +3 D+ F A- -15 F F D
 Sat, Jan 17 303 South Carolina Upstate W 89 - 69 93% +7  14 - 4 5 - 1 +9 +15 C- A+ A+ -6 B F A+
 Fri, Jan 23 253 @Radford W 88 - 81 75%
 Thu, Jan 29 266 Presbyterian W 81 - 67 91%
 Sat, Jan 31 262 @Longwood W 84 - 76 78%
 Wed, Feb 4 234 Charleston Southern W 88 - 76 88%
 Sat, Feb 7 253 Radford W 91 - 78 90%
 Thu, Feb 12 303 @South Carolina Upstate W 83 - 73 83%
 Sat, Feb 14 363 Gardner-Webb W 96 - 69 99%
 Thu, Feb 19 205 UNC Asheville W 82 - 71 85%
 Sat, Feb 21 130 Winthrop W 84 - 78 72%
 Thu, Feb 26 266 @Presbyterian W 78 - 70 77%
Totals 22 - 6 13 - 3 +5 +6 B- B A- +0 C- C- A-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 5.8 19.8 31.1 19.3 76.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 4.2 8.4 6.8 1.1 21.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.1 1.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 5.5 14.3 26.5 32.2 19.3 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 19.3    19.3
14-2 96.7% 31.1    25.6 5.5
13-3 74.4% 19.8    12.0 7.8 0.0
12-4 40.7% 5.8    2.4 3.1 0.3 0.0
11-5 12.9% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0
10-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 76.7% 76.7 59.3 16.8 0.6 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 19.3% 60.6% 60.6% 12.0 1.7 8.1 1.9 0.0 7.6
14-2 32.2% 56.6% 56.6% 12.8 0.1 5.6 10.2 2.2 0.0 14.0
13-3 26.5% 49.2% 49.2% 13.2 1.8 7.5 3.7 0.1 13.5
12-4 14.3% 44.2% 44.2% 13.5 0.3 2.8 3.0 0.2 8.0
11-5 5.5% 37.1% 37.1% 13.8 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.2 3.5
10-6 1.6% 28.4% 28.4% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 1.2
9-7 0.5% 26.4% 26.4% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3
8-8 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-9 0.0% 0.0
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 52.0% 52.0% 0.0% 12.9 48.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 11.7% 100.0% 12.0 14.7 68.8 16.1 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.6%