High Point
Big South
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.0#107
Expected Predictive Rating+3.5#120
Pace66.4#230
Improvement+2.2#83

Offense
Total Offense+7.3#33
First Shot+5.7#43
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#98
Layup/Dunks+0.3#172
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#236
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#89
Freethrows+3.6#20
Improvement+2.4#61

Defense
Total Defense-3.3#270
First Shot-1.6#230
After Offensive Rebounds-1.7#306
Layups/Dunks-1.3#227
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#257
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#204
Freethrows+0.4#151
Improvement-0.2#198
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 43.6% 45.3% 40.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 12.9 13.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 67.8% 76.7% 53.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round43.6% 45.3% 40.8%
Second Round5.0% 5.4% 4.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 1.1% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Radford (Away) - 61.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 11 - 1
Quad 36 - 47 - 5
Quad 418 - 224 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 362   Coppin St. W 93-51 98%     1 - 0 +21.8 +13.3 +7.9
  Nov 09, 2024 284   Jackson St. W 80-71 89%     2 - 0 -0.2 +4.0 -4.3
  Nov 12, 2024 295   NC Central W 76-60 90%     3 - 0 +6.2 +8.5 +0.2
  Nov 15, 2024 96   UAB W 68-65 56%     4 - 0 +5.4 -5.2 +10.8
  Nov 18, 2024 233   American W 80-73 84%     5 - 0 +0.4 +18.7 -17.0
  Nov 24, 2024 223   Missouri St. L 61-71 76%     5 - 1 -13.4 -9.3 -4.7
  Nov 25, 2024 275   Old Dominion W 73-67 83%     6 - 1 -0.3 +6.8 -6.3
  Nov 26, 2024 287   Hampton W 76-73 85%     7 - 1 -3.9 +13.6 -17.0
  Dec 03, 2024 159   @ UNC Greensboro L 68-72 54%     7 - 2 -1.1 +8.9 -10.7
  Dec 06, 2024 70   North Texas W 76-71 45%     8 - 2 +10.3 +8.9 +1.4
  Dec 14, 2024 145   Appalachian St. W 65-59 61%     9 - 2 +7.2 -5.4 +12.4
  Dec 21, 2024 183   @ Southern Illinois W 94-81 60%     10 - 2 +14.3 +19.7 -5.7
  Dec 29, 2024 185   Norfolk St. L 74-77 77%     10 - 3 -6.8 +6.8 -13.9
  Jan 02, 2025 204   Radford W 76-58 79%     11 - 3 1 - 0 +13.4 +12.8 +3.9
  Jan 04, 2025 172   @ UNC Asheville L 99-103 57%     11 - 4 1 - 1 -1.9 +15.2 -16.7
  Jan 08, 2025 285   @ Charleston Southern W 93-79 79%     12 - 4 2 - 1 +9.7 +20.0 -10.2
  Jan 11, 2025 236   Gardner-Webb W 96-55 85%     13 - 4 3 - 1 +34.1 +17.1 +16.0
  Jan 16, 2025 190   @ Longwood L 80-82 61%     13 - 5 3 - 2 -0.9 +6.8 -7.7
  Jan 18, 2025 283   Presbyterian W 77-66 89%     14 - 5 4 - 2 +1.8 +5.6 -2.8
  Jan 22, 2025 346   @ South Carolina Upstate W 86-77 89%     15 - 5 5 - 2 -0.5 +11.3 -11.5
  Jan 25, 2025 205   Winthrop W 84-62 80%     16 - 5 6 - 2 +17.3 +9.0 +8.8
  Feb 01, 2025 283   @ Presbyterian W 84-72 78%     17 - 5 7 - 2 +7.8 +20.5 -10.9
  Feb 05, 2025 204   @ Radford W 76-72 62%    
  Feb 08, 2025 172   UNC Asheville W 83-76 75%    
  Feb 12, 2025 190   Longwood W 83-75 78%    
  Feb 15, 2025 205   @ Winthrop W 85-81 62%    
  Feb 19, 2025 285   Charleston Southern W 82-69 91%    
  Feb 22, 2025 236   @ Gardner-Webb W 82-76 70%    
  Feb 26, 2025 346   South Carolina Upstate W 90-72 97%    
Projected Record 22 - 7 12 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 4.3 18.1 29.2 16.2 67.8 1st
2nd 0.1 2.6 11.1 10.8 3.2 27.8 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.6 0.6 3.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.7 4th
5th 0.1 0.1 0.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.1 0.9 5.6 16.0 28.9 32.3 16.2 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 100.0% 16.2    15.2 1.0
13-3 90.2% 29.2    21.9 7.2
12-4 62.5% 18.1    9.1 8.4 0.6
11-5 26.9% 4.3    0.8 2.3 1.1 0.2 0.0
10-6 2.5% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 67.8% 67.8 47.0 19.0 1.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 16.2% 51.4% 51.4% 12.3 0.4 5.5 2.3 0.2 7.9
13-3 32.3% 47.3% 47.3% 12.9 0.0 3.8 8.8 2.5 0.1 17.0
12-4 28.9% 41.6% 41.6% 13.3 1.1 6.0 4.6 0.4 16.9
11-5 16.0% 37.6% 37.6% 13.6 0.2 2.4 2.9 0.5 0.0 10.0
10-6 5.6% 30.2% 30.2% 14.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.4 3.9
9-7 0.9% 26.7% 26.7% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.7
8-8 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 43.6% 43.6% 0.0% 13.1 0.4 10.6 19.9 11.2 1.5 0.0 56.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 8.3% 100.0% 12.3 4.6 66.4 27.1 1.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.4%