High Point
Big South
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.3#93
Expected Predictive Rating+3.4#127
Pace73.8#82
Improvement-3.3#348

Offense
Total Offense+6.1#54
First Shot+5.0#53
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#126
Layup/Dunks+4.9#38
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#250
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#200
Freethrows+2.1#77
Improvement-1.6#303

Defense
Total Defense-0.8#192
First Shot-0.5#188
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#201
Layups/Dunks+2.1#102
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#58
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#303
Freethrows-0.8#236
Improvement-1.8#316
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 44.4% 45.1% 39.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.8 13.4
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.6%
.500 or above in Conference 99.5% 99.6% 98.7%
Conference Champion 59.3% 60.4% 52.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round44.4% 45.1% 39.7%
Second Round6.2% 6.5% 3.7%
Sweet Sixteen1.3% 1.3% 0.8%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Appalachian St. (Neutral) - 86.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 34 - 25 - 4
Quad 420 - 225 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 153 Furman W 97-71 69%     1 - 0 +26.1 +19.2 +5.8
  Tue, Nov 11 275 Jacksonville W 85-64 91%     2 - 0 +11.8 +10.6 +1.5
  Fri, Nov 14 112 @UAB L 74-91 44%     2 - 1 -10.3 -3.2 -5.3
  Mon, Nov 17 353 Canisius W 93-50 97%     3 - 1 +27.0 +18.8 +10.6
  Thu, Nov 20 204 Illinois-Chicago W 90-80 78%     4 - 1 +7.3 +12.9 -6.0
  Sat, Nov 22 171 Incarnate Word W 91-80 73%     5 - 1 +9.9 +21.5 -10.8
  Sat, Nov 29 281 Western Carolina W 93-73 91%     6 - 1 +10.4 +11.3 -2.0
  Wed, Dec 3 142 Southern Illinois L 84-86 75%     6 - 2 -3.7 +5.5 -9.0
  Fri, Dec 5 351 NJIT W 89-72 96%     7 - 2 +1.7 +6.9 -6.0
  Sun, Dec 14 283 Appalachian St. W 78-66 87%    
  Fri, Dec 19 229 La Salle W 82-70 88%    
  Mon, Dec 22 295 Bryant W 84-68 93%    
  Wed, Dec 31 210 @UNC Asheville W 83-78 69%    
  Sat, Jan 3 289 Longwood W 88-73 92%    
  Wed, Jan 7 360 Gardner-Webb W 94-71 98%    
  Sat, Jan 10 288 @Charleston Southern W 85-76 80%    
  Wed, Jan 14 107 @Winthrop L 83-85 43%    
  Sat, Jan 17 278 South Carolina Upstate W 88-73 91%    
  Sat, Jan 24 290 @Radford W 89-80 80%    
  Thu, Jan 29 257 Presbyterian W 77-63 89%    
  Sat, Jan 31 289 @Longwood W 85-76 80%    
  Wed, Feb 4 288 Charleston Southern W 88-73 91%    
  Sat, Feb 7 290 Radford W 92-77 91%    
  Thu, Feb 12 278 @South Carolina Upstate W 85-76 79%    
  Sat, Feb 14 360 Gardner-Webb W 94-71 98%    
  Thu, Feb 19 210 UNC Asheville W 86-75 85%    
  Sat, Feb 21 107 Winthrop W 86-82 64%    
  Thu, Feb 26 257 @Presbyterian W 74-66 75%    
Projected Record 23 - 5 13 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 4.7 12.2 19.3 16.0 6.2 59.3 1st
2nd 0.2 1.9 6.5 10.0 9.0 3.0 30.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.2 2.4 2.4 0.8 0.1 7.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 5th
6th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.5 4.9 9.9 15.5 21.3 22.3 16.0 6.2 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 6.2    6.2
15-1 100.0% 16.0    15.1 0.9
14-2 86.6% 19.3    15.0 4.3 0.0
13-3 57.3% 12.2    7.2 4.8 0.3
12-4 30.1% 4.7    1.8 2.3 0.6 0.0
11-5 8.8% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
10-6 1.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 59.3% 59.3 45.4 12.7 1.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 6.2% 64.9% 64.9% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 2.0 1.3 0.2 2.2
15-1 16.0% 56.6% 56.6% 12.3 0.9 4.9 3.0 0.2 0.0 6.9
14-2 22.3% 51.5% 51.5% 12.8 0.1 3.6 6.0 1.7 0.1 10.8
13-3 21.3% 43.6% 43.6% 13.3 0.0 1.2 4.8 3.0 0.3 0.0 12.0
12-4 15.5% 35.8% 35.8% 13.6 0.3 2.2 2.5 0.5 0.0 10.0
11-5 9.9% 30.6% 30.6% 13.9 0.1 0.8 1.5 0.6 0.0 6.9
10-6 4.9% 25.3% 25.3% 14.4 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 3.7
9-7 2.5% 19.7% 19.7% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 2.0
8-8 0.9% 14.4% 14.4% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.8
7-9 0.3% 16.8% 16.8% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.3
6-10 0.1% 11.1% 11.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1
5-11 0.0% 0.0
4-12 0.0% 0.0
3-13 0.0% 0.0
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 44.4% 44.4% 0.0% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 3.0 11.4 17.2 9.8 2.2 0.3 55.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.3% 100.0% 11.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 5.3 7.6 55.9 28.2 1.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%