Southern Illinois
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.0#130
Expected Predictive Rating-0.6#173
Pace73.2#79
Improvement+1.0#115

Offense
Total Offense+0.0#167
First Shot-0.6#186
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#139
Layup/Dunks+3.3#66
2 Pt Jumpshots+7.0#3
3 Pt Jumpshots-11.2#365
Freethrows+0.3#159
Improvement-2.2#333

Defense
Total Defense+2.0#110
First Shot+1.3#128
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#136
Layups/Dunks+3.5#62
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#307
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#252
Freethrows+1.5#84
Improvement+3.2#16
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.4% 6.4% 3.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 12.7 13.4
.500 or above 45.8% 64.1% 38.9%
.500 or above in Conference 48.8% 67.5% 41.7%
Conference Champion 1.3% 3.3% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 3.3% 1.0% 4.2%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round4.4% 6.3% 3.6%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Murray St. (Away) - 27.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 22 - 72 - 9
Quad 34 - 67 - 15
Quad 49 - 115 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 343 UMKC W 101-78 93%     1 - 0 +8.3 +16.1 -9.7
  Wed, Nov 12 89 @Nevada L 81-86 OT 24%     1 - 1 +4.2 +2.5 +2.3
  Mon, Nov 17 155 @North Dakota St. L 85-92 45%     1 - 2 -3.6 +5.5 -8.4
  Sun, Nov 23 284 Delaware W 79-59 79%     2 - 2 +13.4 +5.8 +8.1
  Mon, Nov 24 107 UAB L 73-81 41%     2 - 3 -3.8 +1.3 -5.1
  Wed, Nov 26 72 @Memphis L 58-74 20%     2 - 4 -5.3 -7.1 +1.9
  Sat, Nov 29 309 Arkansas Little Rock W 74-65 89%     3 - 4 -2.5 +3.5 -5.1
  Wed, Dec 3 101 @High Point W 86-84 27%     4 - 4 +10.3 +9.1 +1.1
  Wed, Dec 10 214 Tennessee Martin W 83-54 79%     5 - 4 +22.5 +8.2 +14.4
  Sat, Dec 13 104 @Richmond L 84-93 OT 30%     5 - 5 -1.5 -1.4 +1.7
  Thu, Dec 18 82 Illinois St. L 68-75 43%     5 - 6 0 - 1 -3.1 -3.8 +0.7
  Sun, Dec 21 108 @Bradley L 69-73 32%     5 - 7 0 - 2 +2.9 -0.6 +3.6
  Mon, Dec 29 100 @Murray St. L 79-85 28%    
  Thu, Jan 1 219 Valparaiso W 77-68 80%    
  Sun, Jan 4 69 @Belmont L 75-84 20%    
  Wed, Jan 7 200 @Illinois-Chicago W 76-75 55%    
  Wed, Jan 14 143 Drake W 74-70 64%    
  Sat, Jan 17 69 Belmont L 78-81 39%    
  Wed, Jan 21 219 @Valparaiso W 74-71 60%    
  Sun, Jan 25 252 @Evansville W 74-70 65%    
  Wed, Jan 28 93 Northern Iowa L 65-66 46%    
  Sat, Jan 31 200 Illinois-Chicago W 79-72 75%    
  Tue, Feb 3 82 @Illinois St. L 70-78 23%    
  Fri, Feb 6 100 Murray St. L 82-83 49%    
  Mon, Feb 9 201 @Indiana St. W 77-76 55%    
  Thu, Feb 12 252 Evansville W 77-67 82%    
  Sun, Feb 15 108 Bradley W 73-72 54%    
  Wed, Feb 18 143 @Drake L 71-73 42%    
  Sat, Feb 21 93 @Northern Iowa L 62-69 27%    
  Wed, Feb 25 201 Indiana St. W 80-73 75%    
Projected Record 14 - 16 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 3.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.7 1.2 0.1 0.0 5.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.7 4.3 2.2 0.2 0.0 10.0 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 4.0 6.1 3.0 0.4 0.0 14.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.8 6.1 7.4 3.6 0.6 0.0 19.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.6 6.6 6.6 2.8 0.3 19.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.8 4.0 1.2 0.1 12.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.1 2.1 0.6 0.0 7.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 4.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.5 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.8 4.0 6.6 9.9 13.2 14.8 14.9 12.9 9.6 6.1 3.2 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 97.4% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 65.9% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
15-5 35.6% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 8.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.3% 1.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 48.7% 48.7% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.5% 24.4% 24.4% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
15-5 1.4% 17.8% 17.8% 11.9 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.1
14-6 3.2% 12.6% 12.6% 12.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 2.8
13-7 6.1% 11.7% 11.7% 12.3 0.0 0.4 0.3 5.4
12-8 9.6% 7.5% 7.5% 12.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 8.9
11-9 12.9% 5.7% 5.7% 12.9 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 12.2
10-10 14.9% 3.8% 3.8% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 14.3
9-11 14.8% 2.5% 2.5% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 14.5
8-12 13.2% 1.9% 1.9% 15.3 0.2 0.1 12.9
7-13 9.9% 1.5% 1.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 9.7
6-14 6.6% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 6.6
5-15 4.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 4.0
4-16 1.8% 1.8
3-17 0.7% 0.7
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 13.1 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 95.6 0.0%