Southern Illinois
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.1#183
Expected Predictive Rating-2.2#206
Pace69.7#140
Improvement+2.4#75

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#198
First Shot-1.9#236
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#120
Layup/Dunks+2.4#97
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#276
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#264
Freethrows+0.1#169
Improvement+2.8#40

Defense
Total Defense-0.3#175
First Shot+0.8#150
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#277
Layups/Dunks-3.1#294
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#130
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#57
Freethrows+0.1#184
Improvement-0.4#207
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.7% 1.8% 1.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 14.9 15.6
.500 or above 4.8% 8.2% 1.6%
.500 or above in Conference 29.2% 43.4% 15.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.1% 1.3%
First Four0.6% 0.2% 0.9%
First Round1.5% 1.7% 1.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Evansville (Away) - 49.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 51 - 6
Quad 36 - 97 - 15
Quad 45 - 312 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 131   College of Charleston L 80-90 39%     0 - 1 -8.3 -0.9 -6.4
  Nov 14, 2024 102   @ Oklahoma St. L 78-85 22%     0 - 2 +0.1 +6.4 -6.0
  Nov 18, 2024 139   North Dakota St. W 69-44 50%     1 - 2 +23.8 -3.7 +29.4
  Nov 22, 2024 4   @ Florida L 68-93 2%     1 - 3 -2.6 +3.1 -5.1
  Nov 25, 2024 113   Louisiana Tech L 79-85 OT 34%     1 - 4 -2.8 -5.7 +3.9
  Nov 26, 2024 231   Eastern Kentucky L 72-77 61%     1 - 5 -8.9 -7.2 -1.7
  Dec 03, 2024 94   Bradley L 60-83 33%     1 - 6 0 - 1 -19.7 -9.1 -11.2
  Dec 07, 2024 324   Southern Indiana W 73-70 85%     2 - 6 -9.5 -0.1 -9.1
  Dec 14, 2024 296   @ Austin Peay W 65-60 64%     3 - 6 +0.1 -2.4 +3.0
  Dec 21, 2024 107   High Point L 81-94 40%     3 - 7 -11.5 +1.6 -12.7
  Dec 29, 2024 108   @ Northern Iowa L 67-78 23%     3 - 8 0 - 2 -4.5 +0.3 -5.4
  Jan 01, 2025 230   Evansville L 53-68 70%     3 - 9 0 - 3 -21.4 -17.8 -4.3
  Jan 05, 2025 135   @ Illinois St. L 54-85 31%     3 - 10 0 - 4 -27.0 -18.9 -8.7
  Jan 08, 2025 140   @ Belmont L 86-90 32%     3 - 11 0 - 5 -0.2 +10.9 -11.1
  Jan 11, 2025 223   Missouri St. W 88-78 OT 68%     4 - 11 1 - 5 +4.1 +6.7 -3.3
  Jan 15, 2025 223   @ Missouri St. W 73-51 49%     5 - 11 2 - 5 +21.1 +5.6 +17.0
  Jan 18, 2025 108   Northern Iowa W 73-49 40%     6 - 11 3 - 5 +25.5 +11.5 +17.8
  Jan 22, 2025 171   Murray St. L 64-74 56%     6 - 12 3 - 6 -12.7 -5.8 -7.7
  Jan 25, 2025 123   @ Illinois-Chicago W 89-85 29%     7 - 12 4 - 6 +8.6 +13.9 -5.4
  Jan 28, 2025 226   @ Valparaiso W 79-75 49%     8 - 12 5 - 6 +3.0 +4.6 -1.6
  Feb 01, 2025 73   Drake L 65-75 27%     8 - 13 5 - 7 -4.9 +4.0 -10.4
  Feb 05, 2025 230   @ Evansville W 70-69 49%    
  Feb 08, 2025 123   Illinois-Chicago L 76-77 49%    
  Feb 12, 2025 94   @ Bradley L 66-75 18%    
  Feb 15, 2025 140   Belmont W 81-80 52%    
  Feb 19, 2025 171   @ Murray St. L 69-72 36%    
  Feb 22, 2025 226   Valparaiso W 78-73 69%    
  Feb 25, 2025 135   Illinois St. L 72-73 51%    
  Mar 02, 2025 210   @ Indiana St. L 79-80 44%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.2 1.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 2.7 1.2 0.1 4.7 4th
5th 0.4 4.7 3.7 0.3 9.0 5th
6th 0.1 5.2 8.8 1.4 0.0 15.6 6th
7th 2.8 11.9 3.6 0.1 18.3 7th
8th 0.6 9.5 6.9 0.4 17.3 8th
9th 0.2 5.3 9.3 1.0 0.0 15.7 9th
10th 0.1 3.0 7.9 2.2 0.1 13.3 10th
11th 0.8 2.6 0.9 0.0 4.3 11th
12th 0.1 0.1 0.2 12th
Total 1.0 5.8 14.7 24.0 25.4 18.2 8.3 2.4 0.3 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.3% 7.1% 7.1% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-8 2.4% 6.6% 6.6% 13.4 0.1 0.1 2.3
11-9 8.3% 2.5% 2.5% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.1
10-10 18.2% 2.1% 2.1% 15.1 0.0 0.3 0.0 17.8
9-11 25.4% 1.5% 1.5% 15.7 0.1 0.3 25.0
8-12 24.0% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.3 23.6
7-13 14.7% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.2 14.5
6-14 5.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 5.8
5-15 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 15.3 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 98.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.7%