Southern Illinois
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.9 #146
Expected Predictive Rating -1.7 #199
Pace 72.2 #91
Improvement -0.5 #214

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #233 C C C C D
Defense #86 B- C+ C+ C+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #52 1.18 #151 +3.4 #73
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #32 0.94 #19 +6.3 #6
Three Pointers 27% #364 0.79 #359 -10.3 #364
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #196 -0.6 #197
Freethrows 18.4 #131 68% #311 12.6 #188
Second Chance 30.1% #199 1.11 #102 0.33 #141
Turnovers 16.5% #180
Total Offense -2.4 #233

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #263 1.14 #160 +2.0 #113
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #135 0.82 #282 -1.1 #268
Three Pointers 43% #125 0.91 #59 +1.4 #128
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #108 +2.3 #106
Freethrows 16.9 #165 69% #42 11.6 #118
Second Chance 28.7% #104 1.06 #209 0.30 #134
Turnovers 17.2% #130
Total Defense +3.3 #86

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.6% #291 -0.7% #109
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.5% #167 -3.9% #107
Possession Length 16.1 #62 17.5 #209
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #93 0.16 #133
Improvement -4.5 #358 +4.0 #17

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.7% 3.3% 1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.9 14.8
.500 or above 15.0% 20.1% 5.4%
.500 or above in Conference 16.4% 22.2% 5.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 6.6% 1.9% 15.2%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
First Round2.6% 3.2% 1.6%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Evansville (Away) - 65.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 1
Quad 22 - 73 - 8
Quad 34 - 96 - 17
Quad 47 - 114 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 353 UMKC W 101 - 78 93% +11  1 - 0 +7 +13 A+ A+ C -8 B+ F D-
 Wed, Nov 12 80 @Nevada L 81 - 86 OT 18% +1  1 - 1 +5 +3 C F A+ +3 A+ A+ F
 Mon, Nov 17 147 @North Dakota St. L 85 - 92 39% -4  1 - 2 -3 +5 A- C D -8 F F C-
 Sun, Nov 23 295 Delaware W 79 - 59 79% +10  2 - 2 +12 +5 D+ A C- +7 C+ C A+
 Mon, Nov 24 117 UAB L 73 - 81 43% -5  2 - 3 -5 +1 D+ D- A+ -6 C F C+
 Wed, Nov 26 92 @Memphis L 58 - 74 23% -11  2 - 4 -7 -7 F B B -0 B- D- A-
 Sat, Nov 29 282 Arkansas Little Rock W 74 - 65 84% +1  3 - 4 -1 +3 A+ D- F -3 F B A+
 Wed, Dec 3 98 @High Point W 86 - 84 24% -3  4 - 4 +10 +10 C- A+ A +1 B B C+
 Wed, Dec 10 226 Tennessee Martin W 83 - 54 77% +15  5 - 4 +22 +10 A+ C F +13 A A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 120 @Richmond L 84 - 93 OT 32% -2  5 - 5 -3 -3 F B F +2 D A+ C
 Thu, Dec 18 90 Illinois St. L 68 - 75 40% +0  5 - 6 0 - 1 -4 -3 B- A- F -1 B- F A-
 Sun, Dec 21 119 @Bradley L 69 - 73 32% -4  5 - 7 0 - 2 +2 -2 F C B +4 B- D A+
 Mon, Dec 29 97 @Murray St. L 81 - 84 24% -7  5 - 8 0 - 3 +5 +5 D+ A+ D+ +1 F A+ A-
 Thu, Jan 1 167 Valparaiso W 75 - 70 68% +5  6 - 8 1 - 3 +1 -3 D- C A+ +4 A+ A+ D
 Sun, Jan 4 82 @Belmont W 68 - 67 19% +0  7 - 8 2 - 3 +11 -1 B- C- F +12 C- A+ A+
 Wed, Jan 7 151 @Illinois-Chicago L 57 - 70 40% -8  7 - 9 2 - 4 -9 -8 B F F -3 A F F
 Wed, Jan 14 158 Drake L 73 - 76 OT 64% +4  7 - 10 2 - 5 -6 -10 F D- A+ +4 A+ F A-
 Sat, Jan 17 82 Belmont L 68 - 73 37% -2  7 - 11 2 - 6 -1 -3 D- D C+ +3 A+ C F
 Wed, Jan 21 167 @Valparaiso L 63 - 69 45% -11  7 - 12 2 - 7 -4 -1 D- C- C -4 F A- C
 Sun, Jan 25 271 @Evansville W 72 - 68 65%
 Wed, Jan 28 110 Northern Iowa W 63 - 62 51%
 Sat, Jan 31 151 Illinois-Chicago W 72 - 69 63%
 Tue, Feb 3 90 @Illinois St. L 67 - 75 21%
 Fri, Feb 6 97 Murray St. L 81 - 82 45%
 Mon, Feb 9 188 @Indiana St. L 74 - 75 49%
 Thu, Feb 12 271 Evansville W 75 - 65 82%
 Sun, Feb 15 119 Bradley W 73 - 72 55%
 Wed, Feb 18 158 @Drake L 70 - 72 42%
 Sat, Feb 21 110 @Northern Iowa L 60 - 66 30%
 Wed, Feb 25 188 Indiana St. W 78 - 72 70%
Totals 13 - 17 8 - 12 +1 -2 C C C +3 B- C+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 1.8 0.6 0.0 2.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.5 1.8 0.2 6.3 5th
6th 0.5 4.5 4.7 0.5 10.2 6th
7th 0.5 5.1 7.8 1.6 0.0 15.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 5.3 10.8 3.6 0.2 20.4 8th
9th 0.1 1.2 6.5 11.1 5.3 0.4 24.6 9th
10th 0.1 1.3 5.4 6.9 2.8 0.2 16.7 10th
11th 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.9 11th
Total 0.1 0.7 2.4 7.5 14.2 19.7 21.9 17.2 10.5 4.4 1.3 0.2 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 3.0% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.2% 18.2% 18.2% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-8 1.3% 12.0% 12.0% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.2
11-9 4.4% 8.6% 8.6% 12.7 0.2 0.2 0.0 4.0
10-10 10.5% 5.5% 5.5% 13.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 9.9
9-11 17.2% 3.3% 3.3% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 16.6
8-12 21.9% 2.2% 2.2% 15.2 0.0 0.4 0.1 21.4
7-13 19.7% 1.5% 1.5% 15.8 0.1 0.2 19.4
6-14 14.2% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 14.0
5-15 7.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 7.5
4-16 2.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.4
3-17 0.7% 0.7
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 14.1 97.3 0.0%