Southern Illinois
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +2.0 127
Expected Predictive Rating -0.2 163
Pace 72.2 84
Improvement +2.0 103

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ #259 C C- C C- D
Defense B #53 B- C+ B C+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 77 60% 130 +3.0 83
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% 29 46% 24 +6.0 5
Three Pointers 27% 363 28% 356 -9.3 364
1st FG Attempt 1.01 184 -0.2 183
Second Chance 29.2% 219 0.97 270 0.28 245
Turnovers 16.6% 159
Freethrows 0.31 155 67% 333 0.21 217
Total Offense -3.1 259

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 211 56% 114 +1.5 126
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 161 40% 250 -0.6 236
Three Pointers 41% 167 30% 48 +2.0 97
1st FG Attempt 0.96 82 +2.9 84
Second Chance 28.1% 88 1.02 182 0.29 105
Turnovers 19.0% 65
Freethrows 0.30 174 71% 101 0.21 153
Total Defense +5.1 53

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.9 301 -0.1 145
Shot Type Accuracy +0.7 148 -2.7 70
Possession Length 16.0 62 17.5 224
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 105 0.15 115
Improvement -3.8 #336 +5.9 #5

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4% 4% 3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.3 14.8
.500 or above 23% 26% 5%
.500 or above in Conference 25% 28% 4%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 2%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round4% 4% 3%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Evansville (Home) - 86.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b2 - 12 - 1
Quad 22 - 64 - 8
Quad 34 - 87 - 16
Quad 47 - 215 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 357 UMKC W 101 - 78 96% +11  66% 1 - 0 B- +5 A +12 A+ A- B- D- -8 B- F F+
 Wed, Nov 12 66 @Nevada L 81 - 86 OT 19% +1  56% 1 - 1 B- +6 C +1 C F+ A+ B +6 A+ A+ F
 Mon, Nov 17 146 @North Dakota St. L 85 - 92 43% -4  11% 1 - 2 C- -3 C+ +2 B+ C D+ D+ -4 D- D- C-
 Sun, Nov 23 279 Delaware W 79 - 59 80% +10  99% 2 - 2 B+ +13 C+ +3 D+ A C- A +11 B- C- A+
 Mon, Nov 24 118 UAB L 73 - 81 46% -5  9% 2 - 3 D+ -5 C- -1 C- D A+ D+ -4 C F C+
 Wed, Nov 26 86 @Memphis L 58 - 74 24% -11  0% 2 - 4 D+ -7 F+ -9 F C- B B- +2 B- D B-
 Sat, Nov 29 301 Arkansas Little Rock W 74 - 65 88% +1  59% 3 - 4 C- -2 C +0 A D F C- -2 F B A+
 Wed, Dec 3 92 @High Point W 86 - 84 27% -3  27% 4 - 4 B +10 B+ +8 C- A+ A+ B- +3 B- B- B-
 Wed, Dec 10 219 Tennessee Martin W 83 - 54 78% +9  83% 5 - 4 A+ +23 B+ +8 A+ B+ C A+ +15 A A+ A
 Sat, Dec 13 128 @Richmond L 84 - 93 OT 39% -2  30% 5 - 5 C- -4 D- -7 D- B- F B +5 D A+ C
 Thu, Dec 18 94 Illinois St. L 68 - 75 49% +0  58% 5 - 6 0 - 1 C- -5 D -5 C+ A- F C+ +0 C+ F B
 Sun, Dec 21 120 @Bradley L 69 - 73 36% -4  10% 5 - 7 0 - 2 C+ +2 D -5 D- C- B- B+ +7 B- D A+
 Mon, Dec 29 112 @Murray St. L 81 - 84 33% -7  1% 5 - 8 0 - 3 C+ +3 C +0 D A+ D+ B- +3 F+ A+ B+
 Thu, Jan 1 155 Valparaiso W 75 - 70 68% +5  78% 6 - 8 1 - 3 C+ +2 D -5 D C A B+ +7 A+ A+ D
 Sun, Jan 4 78 @Belmont W 68 - 67 21% +0  58% 7 - 8 2 - 3 B+ +11 D -4 B- C- F A+ +16 C A+ A
 Wed, Jan 7 137 @Illinois-Chicago L 57 - 70 41% -8  10% 7 - 9 2 - 4 D -9 F -10 B- F D C +0 A- F F+
 Wed, Jan 14 177 Drake L 73 - 76 OT 72% +4  65% 7 - 10 2 - 5 D+ -7 F -14 F D- A B+ +8 A+ D- B+
 Sat, Jan 17 78 Belmont L 68 - 73 41% -2  35% 7 - 11 2 - 6 C -1 D- -7 D- D C+ B+ +6 A+ C+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 155 @Valparaiso L 63 - 69 46% -11  10% 7 - 12 2 - 7 C- -3 D+ -3 D- C- C C -1 F A C
 Wed, Jan 28 100 Northern Iowa W 65 - 50 49% +6  74% 8 - 12 3 - 7 A- +17 C -0 A F B A+ +18 A A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 31 137 Illinois-Chicago L 66 - 68 64% +6  73% 8 - 13 3 - 8 C- -4 D -4 B- F A+ C+ +1 A- F A+
 Tue, Feb 3 94 @Illinois St. W 54 - 50 27% +1  51% 9 - 13 4 - 8 B+ +12 F -15 D+ F F A+ +27 A+ A+ B-
 Fri, Feb 6 112 Murray St. L 81 - 91 56% -6  29% 9 - 14 4 - 9 D -10 C- -1 C F+ A+ D- -8 F A+ A
 Mon, Feb 9 197 @Indiana St. W 80 - 65 56% +7  80% 10 - 14 5 - 9 A- +16 C +1 B F+ C- A+ +14 A+ F+ A-
 Thu, Feb 12 273 Evansville W 75 - 64 86%
 Sun, Feb 15 120 Bradley W 73 - 71 58%
 Wed, Feb 18 177 @Drake W 73 - 72 50%
 Sat, Feb 21 100 @Northern Iowa L 59 - 65 29%
 Wed, Feb 25 197 Indiana St. W 76 - 69 76%
 Sun, Mar 1 273 @Evansville W 72 - 67 69%
Totals 14 - 16 9 - 11 +2 D+ -3 C C- C B +5 B- C+ B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ C+ A- F+ C+ 42% 30% 27% D C C- D+ C- C C+ D- C- B C+ C- B+ B- 38% 21% 41% C B- B- C C+ B C B- C+
1.04 60% 46% 28% +1 -1 1.01 29% 1.0 .28 17% .31 67% .21 1.01 56% 40% 30% -3 0 0.96 28% 1.0 .29 19% .30 71% .22
Nov
7		 UMKC A A+ A+ A- A+ 57% 25% 19% C+ A+ D+ A+ A- B- A+ F A- D- A+ F D- B- 38% 27% 35% C- B- F+ F F F+ F A D
1.33 77% 54% 40% +16 +1 1.36 33% 1.4 .48 16% .41 62% .25 1.02 29% 47% 37% -7 -1 0.85 34% 1.2 .40 16% .36 61% .22
Nov
12		 Nevada C D A+ F C+ 40% 34% 26% F+ C D F F+ A+ A F+ B B A+ F A+ A+ 25% 30% 46% A- A+ B- A+ A+ F F+ B D
1.03 48% 50% 27% -3 -2 0.93 23% 0.9 .20 10% .41 66% .27 1.09 33% 50% 25% -9 -2 0.80 32% 0.7 .23 5% .44 73% .32
Nov
17		 North Dakota St. C+ A- A+ F B+ 45% 29% 25% C- B+ B+ D- C D+ D C+ D+ D+ A+ F+ F F+ 25% 25% 50% B- D- B+ F D- C- C- F D-
1.10 72% 69% 21% +11 -1 1.22 37% 0.7 .27 21% .21 77% .16 1.19 40% 47% 47% +7 -2 1.13 28% 1.4 .39 15% .29 84% .24
Nov
23		 Delaware C+ A+ A F C+ 20% 51% 29% F D+ A C+ A C- A+ C A+ A F F A- C- 11% 32% 57% A+ B- F A C- A+ A B A
1.16 90% 48% 14% +3 -5 0.98 41% 1.0 .41 15% .43 80% .34 0.87 80% 53% 30% +4 -3 1.02 30% 0.7 .20 28% .14 71% .10
Nov
24		 UAB C- A A+ F C- 34% 29% 36% D C- C F D A+ D A+ C- D+ B C- D+ C- 35% 33% 33% A C D- F F C+ C- C C-
1.04 70% 47% 19% -1 -1 0.97 26% 0.7 .18 11% .21 85% .18 1.15 53% 39% 33% -2 -2 0.95 38% 1.3 .50 13% .33 70% .23
Nov
26		 Memphis F+ C- F F F 37% 44% 19% F F B+ F+ C- B A+ F A+ B- B B+ D+ B- 39% 20% 41% C- B- B- F D B- F+ F F
0.83 56% 21% 13% -14 -3 0.67 38% 0.7 .27 19% .58 61% .35 1.06 53% 30% 35% -3 0 0.96 34% 1.4 .49 21% .36 80% .29
Nov
29		 Arkansas Little Rock C C+ A+ A A 49% 17% 34% C+ A C F D F A+ F B C- F F A+ F 34% 23% 43% D- F C- A B A+ C A+ B+
1.16 65% 86% 43% +16 +1 1.37 35% 0.8 .26 23% .41 60% .25 1.02 81% 55% 25% +6 -1 1.13 31% 0.8 .24 25% .23 45% .10
Dec
3		 High Point B+ C- F A- C- 45% 24% 31% C- C- C+ A+ A+ A+ F+ C- F+ B- A- A F B- 42% 15% 42% C+ B- C B- B- B- D+ C D+
1.16 58% 29% 39% 0 0 1.02 33% 1.8 .58 16% .23 71% .16 1.13 50% 25% 41% -1 +1 1.02 30% 1.1 .33 15% .38 75% .29
Dec
10		 Tennessee Martin B+ A C A- A+ 52% 22% 26% B+ A+ C A+ B+ C B D+ B- A+ A+ A- A A+ 28% 12% 60% D+ A A A+ A+ A A C- A-
1.19 73% 36% 38% +9 +1 1.22 32% 1.2 .39 19% .37 67% .25 0.77 43% 33% 27% -11 0 0.80 29% 0.5 .16 27% .24 67% .16
Dec
13		 Richmond D- F+ C- D+ D+ 27% 51% 22% F D- B C- B- F A A+ A+ B F F B D 30% 30% 41% C+ D A+ F A+ C D+ B- D+
0.96 50% 37% 31% -4 -5 0.85 36% 1.1 .40 25% .38 80% .31 1.06 72% 56% 32% +8 -2 1.15 6% 1.5 .09 15% .36 74% .27
Dec
18		 Illinois St. D D- A+ F B 33% 44% 23% F C+ B- A A- F A F C C+ F F A+ C+ 35% 19% 46% C- C+ D- F F B C- A+ A+
0.97 50% 62% 18% +2 -3 1.00 29% 1.2 .35 23% .41 55% .22 1.07 72% 50% 25% +1 0 1.04 33% 1.3 .44 19% .32 39% .12
Dec
21		 Bradley D C A+ F D- 33% 35% 31% D+ D- C- C C- B- C- F+ D B+ B- A+ F B- 43% 27% 29% C B- D- C- D A+ D+ F F
0.96 59% 56% 13% -4 -2 0.90 30% 1.0 .30 18% .31 67% .21 1.02 55% 14% 47% -2 -1 0.96 31% 1.1 .34 21% .35 90% .32
Dec
29		 Murray St. C D D+ C- D 58% 31% 11% C+ D B- A+ A+ D+ C- D+ C- B- F A+ F+ F 31% 21% 48% B+ F+ A+ A+ A+ B+ C- C C-
1.09 50% 35% 33% -6 0 0.91 36% 1.4 .51 17% .28 71% .20 1.13 88% 27% 40% +11 -1 1.23 23% 0.7 .16 19% .35 76% .26
Jan
1		 Valparaiso D F D C D- 44% 20% 36% B- D F+ A+ C A A+ F A+ B+ A B A+ A+ 38% 29% 34% D+ A+ C+ A+ A+ D F F F
1.00 45% 30% 33% -7 0 0.88 23% 1.2 .28 12% .64 60% .38 0.94 43% 31% 21% -14 -1 0.71 30% 0.6 .17 13% .45 83% .37
Jan
4		 Belmont D D A+ C+ B 28% 32% 40% F+ B- B F C- F C- F D- A+ D+ F A+ C+ 61% 14% 25% D- C B- A+ A+ A F+ A+ B-
0.98 50% 50% 35% +2 -2 1.02 38% 0.8 .30 26% .25 62% .16 0.97 67% 67% 27% +7 +3 1.20 26% 0.9 .22 23% .37 50% .19
Jan
7		 Illinois-Chicago F D+ A+ D- B 41% 25% 33% D+ B- F F F D F F F C A- A A+ A+ 51% 15% 34% F A- D- F F F+ D- A C-
0.88 52% 62% 29% +1 0 1.04 17% 0.6 .10 23% .08 50% .04 1.08 46% 29% 25% -12 +2 0.81 41% 1.3 .54 14% .40 64% .25
Jan
14		 Drake F B D F F 32% 31% 37% D F C F D- A B C- B- B+ D F A+ A+ 27% 19% 54% C A+ B F D- B+ F+ C- F+
0.92 65% 32% 13% -11 -2 0.76 30% 0.7 .20 10% .34 67% .22 0.96 64% 50% 18% -9 -1 0.83 22% 1.7 .37 18% .38 72% .28
Jan
17		 Belmont D- D F D+ D- 36% 20% 44% C+ D- D- C D C+ A A+ A+ B+ F+ A- A+ A+ 40% 19% 40% B+ A+ D A- C+ F F+ D+ F+
0.98 50% 20% 32% -8 0 0.86 26% 1.0 .26 17% .35 85% .30 1.05 71% 30% 19% -5 0 0.92 33% 1.1 .35 13% .38 70% .27
Jan
21		 Valparaiso D+ B+ F F F+ 51% 22% 27% B D- C C- C- C A+ F A+ C F+ A F F 31% 31% 38% C+ F A+ F A C F B F
0.99 67% 11% 18% -8 +1 0.88 31% 0.8 .26 17% .57 60% .34 1.08 67% 25% 47% +6 -2 1.10 15% 1.5 .22 16% .56 67% .37
Jan
28		 Northern Iowa C D+ A+ A+ A+ 31% 39% 31% F A C- F F B A F D+ A+ B+ B+ A+ A+ 51% 13% 36% D- A A+ A+ A+ A+ D+ A- C
0.99 53% 53% 40% +7 -3 1.10 24% 0.4 .09 15% .34 47% .16 0.76 52% 33% 25% -8 +2 0.89 10% 0.7 .06 26% .27 62% .16
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Illinois-Chicago D D D+ A+ B- 47% 26% 28% C B- F F F A+ A C- A- C+ C A A+ A 47% 16% 37% D- A- F C+ F A+ F F F
1.00 50% 33% 46% 0 0 1.02 16% 0.4 .06 15% .39 73% .29 1.03 55% 29% 19% -11 +1 0.81 49% 1.0 .49 26% .53 81% .43
Feb
3		 Illinois St. F B+ A- F C- 38% 40% 22% D- D+ D F F F D+ B C- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 28% 37% 35% A+ A+ A+ A A+ B- A+ A+ A+
0.79 65% 44% 10% -3 -3 0.91 21% 0.3 .06 22% .28 73% .21 0.74 47% 25% 26% -12 -3 0.72 19% 0.9 .17 18% .18 60% .11
Feb
6		 Murray St. C- A C- F C+ 34% 34% 32% F+ C D D- F+ A+ B+ B+ A- D- D- F F F 45% 10% 45% F+ F A+ A+ A+ A F C F
1.11 68% 37% 28% 0 -2 0.98 27% 0.9 .24 10% .35 78% .27 1.24 68% 80% 50% +20 +2 1.45 21% 0.6 .13 21% .45 77% .34
Feb
9		 Indiana St. C B B C B+ 46% 29% 25% C- B C+ F F+ C- D D D A+ B+ C- A+ A+ 49% 10% 41% C A+ B- F F+ A- C- B- C
1.07 63% 47% 33% +5 -1 1.10 35% 0.6 .20 16% .21 69% .14 0.87 54% 40% 20% -10 +2 0.86 22% 1.6 .35 23% .26 67% .17



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 1.3 4th
5th 1.3 2.2 3.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 7.1 1.0 9.0 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 12.6 9.4 0.2 23.5 7th
8th 0.1 2.7 17.7 18.2 2.3 0.0 41.0 8th
9th 0.1 2.5 9.0 8.1 0.7 20.5 9th
10th 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.3 3.2 11.9 27.2 32.4 20.2 4.8 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 4.8% 9.2% 9.2% 11.9 0.1 0.3 0.0 4.4
10-10 20.2% 5.9% 5.9% 12.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 19.0
9-11 32.4% 3.3% 3.3% 13.4 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 31.3
8-12 27.2% 3.3% 3.3% 15.0 0.1 0.8 0.0 26.3
7-13 11.9% 1.6% 1.6% 15.7 0.1 0.1 11.8
6-14 3.2% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.1 3.1
5-15 0.3% 0.3
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 13.5 96.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 11.9 18.2 75.0 6.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.1%
Lose Out 0.2%