UMKC
Summit League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -13.0 #353
Expected Predictive Rating -17.1 #355
Pace 71.1 #120
Improvement -0.1 #193

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #344 D- D D- D D
Defense #332 F D+ C B- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #249 1.07 #283 -3.0 #282
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #64 0.68 #292 +2.2 #74
Three Pointers 37% #269 0.92 #293 -3.8 #308
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #328 -4.5 #306
Freethrows 15.3 #285 70% #259 10.7 #294
Second Chance 28.6% #240 0.90 #338 0.26 #307
Turnovers 19.0% #325
Total Offense -7.5 #344

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #55 1.31 #333 -6.0 #352
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #238 0.76 #193 +0.5 #157
Three Pointers 38% #256 1.09 #277 -0.1 #184
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #332 -5.5 #332
Freethrows 15.9 #108 73% #178 11.6 #113
Second Chance 35.3% #330 1.02 #159 0.36 #282
Turnovers 16.1% #204
Total Defense -5.6 #332

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.9% #303 1.2% #282
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -8.7% #319 9.1% #331
Possession Length 18.1 #259 16.1 #25
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #111 0.21 #305
Improvement +1.5 #98 -1.6 #278

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.7% 1.7% 0.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 55.6% 40.5% 63.0%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Nebraska Omaha (Home) - 32.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 30 - 70 - 12
Quad 43 - 124 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 146 @Southern Illinois L 78 - 101 7% -11  0 - 1 -19 +4 F A C+ -21 F F C-
 Tue, Nov 11 227 Iona L 91 - 105 27% -9  0 - 2 -21 -1 C C+ F -17 F C A
 Sat, Nov 15 38 @Texas L 55 - 71 1% -11  0 - 3 +0 -7 F C- A+ +6 A+ A+ F
 Wed, Nov 19 45 @TCU L 45 - 81 1% -22  0 - 4 -22 -19 F D- F -2 A F A-
 Mon, Nov 24 237 @Lindenwood L 67 - 80 14% -6  0 - 5 -14 -9 D- F F -4 F A+ C
 Sat, Nov 29 217 @Weber St. L 61 - 82 12% -10  0 - 6 -21 -11 D+ F F -11 F A- A+
 Wed, Dec 3 219 Idaho St. L 59 - 68 26% -0  0 - 7 -15 -10 D F F -7 B F A-
 Sat, Dec 6 243 @Eastern Washington L 66 - 90 14% -15  0 - 8 -26 -14 F C F -9 B F C
 Wed, Dec 10 217 Weber St. L 60 - 64 26% -3  0 - 9 -10 -20 F F F +10 A+ C A+
 Tue, Dec 16 57 @Oklahoma L 67 - 89 2% -19  0 - 10 -9 -2 C- C F -7 B- D D
 Thu, Dec 18 61 @Oklahoma St. L 79 - 91 2% -6  0 - 11 -0 +3 B- D- B- -2 F B- A+
 Wed, Dec 31 280 @Denver L 74 - 87 19% -12  0 - 12 0 - 1 -17 -7 F B- D -10 D+ B- F
 Sat, Jan 3 261 @Nebraska Omaha W 73 - 66 16% +2  1 - 12 1 - 1 +4 +0 D- F A +4 C- D+ A+
 Thu, Jan 8 147 North Dakota St. L 73 - 97 15% -18  1 - 13 1 - 2 -26 +0 A F F -27 F B F
 Sat, Jan 10 297 North Dakota L 79 - 81 41% +2  1 - 14 1 - 3 -13 +5 A+ F F -18 D- D- F
 Thu, Jan 15 283 @South Dakota L 83 - 99 19% -17  1 - 15 1 - 4 -20 -0 C- F A+ -18 F F F
 Sat, Jan 17 170 @South Dakota St. L 62 - 90 9% -6  1 - 16 1 - 5 -26 -6 F A C- -22 F D- F
 Sat, Jan 24 261 Nebraska Omaha L 72 - 77 33%
 Wed, Jan 28 280 Denver L 79 - 82 38%
 Sun, Feb 1 131 @St. Thomas L 67 - 85 5%
 Wed, Feb 4 283 South Dakota L 79 - 82 38%
 Thu, Feb 12 321 @Oral Roberts L 70 - 76 28%
 Sat, Feb 14 131 St. Thomas L 70 - 82 13%
 Thu, Feb 19 297 @North Dakota L 72 - 80 22%
 Sat, Feb 21 147 @North Dakota St. L 65 - 82 6%
 Thu, Feb 26 170 South Dakota St. L 71 - 80 20%
 Sat, Feb 28 321 Oral Roberts L 73 - 74 50%
Totals 4 - 23 4 - 12 -13 -7 D- D D- -6 F D+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 1.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 3.0 0.8 0.0 5.8 6th
7th 0.5 4.3 7.6 2.4 0.1 14.9 7th
8th 3.4 13.3 16.0 5.4 0.4 38.4 8th
9th 6.7 15.9 12.2 3.2 0.2 38.2 9th
Total 6.7 19.3 26.0 23.6 15.0 6.6 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 0.0% 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.1
8-8 0.6% 0.6
7-9 2.2% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 2.2
6-10 6.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 6.5
5-11 15.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 15.0
4-12 23.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 23.6
3-13 26.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 26.0
2-14 19.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 19.3
1-15 6.7% 6.7
0-16
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 4.8%