Lindenwood
Ohio Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.2 #237
Expected Predictive Rating -3.7 #226
Pace 78.5 #15
Improvement -0.1 #195

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #294 F B- D- C B-
Defense #158 C C- C C D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% #14 1.13 #202 +4.2 #49
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #188 0.60 #346 -1.8 #271
Three Pointers 33% #327 0.77 #363 -8.1 #359
1st FG Attempt 0.90 #336 -5.7 #336
Freethrows 18.2 #141 68% #304 12.4 #200
Second Chance 32.3% #137 1.14 #60 0.37 #80
Turnovers 18.7% #314
Total Offense -4.5 #294

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #14 1.19 #227 -5.2 #337
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #244 0.62 #20 +2.1 #36
Three Pointers 36% #317 1.02 #190 +2.8 #78
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #188 -0.3 #188
Freethrows 18.0 #216 70% #85 12.7 #189
Second Chance 33.0% #285 1.05 #179 0.35 #248
Turnovers 16.9% #154
Total Defense +0.3 #158

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.3% #91 1.7% #326
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -12.4% #350 -1.0% #162
Possession Length 15.8 #48 16.8 #91
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 #27 0.21 #287
Improvement -1.1 #241 +0.9 #121

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.2% 21.5% 13.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.4 15.7
.500 or above 82.5% 89.8% 71.0%
.500 or above in Conference 95.3% 98.2% 90.6%
Conference Champion 24.7% 32.9% 11.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.5% 3.4% 3.6%
First Round16.5% 19.8% 11.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee St. (Home) - 61.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 00 - 3
Quad 31 - 31 - 6
Quad 416 - 717 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 15 @Texas Tech L 60 - 98 2% -19  0 - 1 -17 -9 F F D+ -5 B- A- F
 Mon, Nov 10 28 @Saint Louis L 66 - 109 3% -22  0 - 2 -25 -7 C+ A+ F -13 F F A+
 Fri, Nov 14 234 Charleston Southern W 83 - 77 49% -6  1 - 2 +2 -0 B- D- F +1 C- B+ A-
 Sun, Nov 16 301 @Alabama A&M L 65 - 74 53% -2  1 - 3 -14 -7 F C F -7 F F B+
 Thu, Nov 20 37 @Indiana L 53 - 73 4% -14  1 - 4 -4 -14 F C+ D- +10 A+ C- F
 Mon, Nov 24 353 UMKC W 80 - 67 86% +6  2 - 4 -3 -6 C- F D- +2 C- A- A+
 Tue, Dec 2 318 @Northern Illinois W 99 - 64 60% +22  3 - 4 +28 +19 F A+ A+ +7 C A+ B-
 Sat, Dec 6 310 @Eastern Illinois W 82 - 74 56% -1  4 - 4 1 - 0 +2 +9 C- A+ B- -7 A- F F
 Thu, Dec 18 356 Western Illinois W 92 - 76 88% +13  5 - 4 2 - 0 -1 +6 C+ A- D- -9 F D D
 Tue, Dec 23 179 @Missouri St. L 65 - 70 28% -5  5 - 5 -3 -6 F F A+ +3 A- F F
 Thu, Jan 1 302 Morehead St. W 77 - 64 74% +6  6 - 5 3 - 0 +2 -2 A F C +4 C+ C+ B-
 Sat, Jan 3 329 Southern Indiana W 83 - 80 81% +5  7 - 5 4 - 0 -11 +5 F A+ F -16 F D- A-
 Tue, Jan 6 257 @SIU Edwardsville L 62 - 66 42% -2  7 - 6 4 - 1 -6 -9 F A- F +2 B+ C A
 Sat, Jan 10 282 Arkansas Little Rock L 74 - 82 70% -5  7 - 7 4 - 2 -18 -3 D B- F -15 F F C-
 Thu, Jan 15 245 @Southeast Missouri St. W 88 - 76 40% +17  8 - 7 5 - 2 +10 +4 D- A+ F +5 A- F B
 Sat, Jan 17 226 @Tennessee Martin L 55 - 69 37% -4  8 - 8 5 - 3 -15 -16 F F F +2 D+ D- A+
 Thu, Jan 22 342 Tennessee Tech W 89 - 68 83% +19  9 - 8 6 - 3 +6 +2 B- A+ F +2 A+ A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 24 241 Tennessee St. W 82 - 79 61%
 Thu, Jan 29 329 @Southern Indiana W 74 - 71 63%
 Sat, Jan 31 302 @Morehead St. W 76 - 75 53%
 Tue, Feb 3 257 SIU Edwardsville W 72 - 68 64%
 Thu, Feb 5 282 @Arkansas Little Rock L 75 - 76 48%
 Thu, Feb 12 226 Tennessee Martin W 73 - 70 60%
 Sat, Feb 14 245 Southeast Missouri St. W 78 - 75 62%
 Thu, Feb 19 241 @Tennessee St. L 79 - 82 39%
 Sat, Feb 21 342 @Tennessee Tech W 78 - 74 65%
 Thu, Feb 26 310 Eastern Illinois W 73 - 66 75%
 Sat, Feb 28 356 @Western Illinois W 75 - 68 74%
Totals 16 - 12 13 - 7 -4 -4 F B- D- +0 C C- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.2 8.4 8.8 4.3 1.0 24.7 1st
2nd 0.0 1.8 10.1 8.2 2.1 0.2 22.4 2nd
3rd 0.5 7.2 7.2 0.9 0.0 15.8 3rd
4th 0.1 3.2 7.3 1.2 11.8 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 5.9 2.2 0.1 9.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.3 3.7 0.2 7.5 6th
7th 0.2 1.6 2.9 0.6 5.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 0.6 0.0 3.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.5 8.0 13.9 18.8 20.8 17.6 10.8 4.5 1.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 1.0    0.9 0.0
16-4 96.5% 4.3    3.8 0.6
15-5 80.7% 8.8    5.6 3.0 0.2
14-6 47.8% 8.4    2.4 4.0 1.8 0.2 0.0
13-7 10.6% 2.2    0.1 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-8 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 24.7% 24.7 12.8 8.2 2.8 0.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 1.0% 40.9% 40.9% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.6
16-4 4.5% 39.1% 39.1% 14.9 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.2 2.7
15-5 10.8% 35.3% 35.3% 15.3 0.2 2.2 1.4 7.0
14-6 17.6% 29.0% 29.0% 15.6 0.1 1.8 3.2 12.5
13-7 20.8% 17.3% 17.3% 15.7 0.0 0.9 2.7 17.2
12-8 18.8% 11.8% 11.8% 15.9 0.0 0.3 1.9 16.6
11-9 13.9% 6.0% 6.0% 15.9 0.1 0.7 13.1
10-10 8.0% 4.9% 4.9% 15.9 0.0 0.4 7.6
9-11 3.5% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.1 3.4
8-12 1.0% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 1.0
7-13 0.2% 0.2
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 18.2% 18.2% 0.0% 15.5 81.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 13.7 3.8 36.7 45.6 13.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%