Lindenwood
Ohio Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -4.6 246
Expected Predictive Rating -4.1 231
Pace 79.5 9
Improvement -0.8 221

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ #283 D- B- D C- C+
Defense C #186 C- D+ C+ C D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 37 56% 213 +2.7 92
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 146 29% 357 -1.3 253
Three Pointers 34% 324 28% 359 -6.8 350
1st FG Attempt 0.91 329 -5.4 328
Second Chance 31.6% 149 1.10 76 0.35 99
Turnovers 19.3% 316
Freethrows 0.32 147 67% 339 0.21 207
Total Offense -4.2 283

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% 7 59% 214 -5.5 344
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 259 34% 62 +1.6 66
Three Pointers 35% 334 34% 187 +3.0 59
1st FG Attempt 1.04 209 -0.9 210
Second Chance 32.7% 276 1.06 247 0.35 267
Turnovers 17.5% 136
Freethrows 0.32 231 71% 105 0.23 215
Total Defense -0.5 186

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.2 166 +0.9 338
Shot Type Accuracy -5.5 341 -0.1 180
Possession Length 15.6 35 16.8 101
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.24 36 0.20 265
Improvement -0.7 #229 -0.1 #195

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16% 20% 10%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 91% 97% 84%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 99%
Conference Champion 15% 26% 2%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four4% 5% 4%
First Round14% 18% 8%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Tennessee Martin (Home) - 55.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 3
Quad 20 - 00 - 3
Quad 31 - 31 - 6
Quad 415 - 717 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 16 @Texas Tech L 60 - 98 2% -19  9% 0 - 1 F+ -17 F -11 F+ F+ C C- -2 B- B+ F
 Mon, Nov 10 22 @Saint Louis L 66 - 109 2% -22  0% 0 - 2 F -23 F+ -9 B- B+ F D- -9 F F A+
 Fri, Nov 14 256 Charleston Southern W 83 - 77 53% -6  18% 1 - 2 C +1 D+ -3 C+ D- D B- +3 D+ B+ B-
 Sun, Nov 16 305 @Alabama A&M L 65 - 74 53% -2  27% 1 - 3 F+ -14 F -10 F C+ F D+ -5 F F+ B-
 Thu, Nov 20 29 @Indiana L 53 - 73 3% -14  0% 1 - 4 C- -2 F -16 F B D- A+ +14 A+ C- D
 Mon, Nov 24 357 UMKC W 80 - 67 89% +6  69% 2 - 4 D+ -5 D- -7 C F D+ C+ +1 C- B A
 Tue, Dec 2 314 @Northern Illinois W 99 - 64 56% +22  94% 3 - 4 A+ +29 A+ +18 F A+ A- A- +9 C- A+ B
 Sat, Dec 6 326 @Eastern Illinois W 82 - 74 60% -1  43% 4 - 4 1 - 0 C +1 B +6 D+ A B D+ -5 B F F
 Thu, Dec 18 362 Western Illinois W 92 - 76 91% +13  97% 5 - 4 2 - 0 C- -4 C +1 C- A- D+ D -6 F+ D- D
 Tue, Dec 23 179 @Missouri St. L 65 - 70 27% -5  15% 5 - 5 C- -3 F+ -8 F F+ A B +5 B+ D- F
 Thu, Jan 1 292 Morehead St. W 77 - 64 72% +6  96% 6 - 5 3 - 0 C+ +2 D -4 A F C+ B+ +7 B C C+
 Sat, Jan 3 340 Southern Indiana W 83 - 80 83% +5  88% 7 - 5 4 - 0 D- -12 C+ +2 F+ A+ D+ F -14 F D B-
 Tue, Jan 6 245 @SIU Edwardsville L 62 - 66 38% -2  23% 7 - 6 4 - 1 D+ -6 F -10 F A- D- B +4 C+ C- B+
 Sat, Jan 10 301 Arkansas Little Rock L 74 - 82 73% -5  10% 7 - 7 4 - 2 F -19 D -5 D+ B- F F -14 F F C
 Thu, Jan 15 230 @Southeast Missouri St. W 88 - 76 35% +17  98% 8 - 7 5 - 2 B+ +11 C +1 D+ A+ D+ A- +9 A- D- C
 Sat, Jan 17 219 @Tennessee Martin L 55 - 69 33% -10  2% 8 - 8 5 - 3 D- -14 F -18 F C- F B- +4 D+ C+ B
 Thu, Jan 22 320 Tennessee Tech W 89 - 68 79% +19  97% 9 - 8 6 - 3 B +8 C- -1 C+ A+ F B+ +7 A+ B+ C+
 Sat, Jan 24 235 Tennessee St. L 86 - 96 60% -5  9% 9 - 9 6 - 4 F+ -17 D+ -3 C- C- D F -13 F D+ B+
 Thu, Jan 29 340 @Southern Indiana W 73 - 60 66% +8  90% 10 - 9 7 - 4 C+ +4 F -10 F C- F+ A +13 A- F+ A+
 Sat, Jan 31 292 @Morehead St. W 79 - 78 50% -2  30% 11 - 9 8 - 4 C- -4 D+ -3 B- C- F C -1 C B+ F
 Tue, Feb 3 245 SIU Edwardsville L 72 - 78 61% +4  79% 11 - 10 8 - 5 D- -14 D- -6 D+ D+ F+ D- -7 F C B
 Thu, Feb 5 301 @Arkansas Little Rock W 79 - 74 52% +0  49% 12 - 10 9 - 5 C -0 B- +4 F B- B+ D+ -4 B+ F F
 Thu, Feb 12 219 Tennessee Martin W 72 - 71 55%
 Sat, Feb 14 230 Southeast Missouri St. W 80 - 78 58%
 Thu, Feb 19 235 @Tennessee St. L 81 - 84 37%
 Sat, Feb 21 320 @Tennessee Tech W 79 - 77 58%
 Thu, Feb 26 326 Eastern Illinois W 75 - 66 79%
 Sat, Feb 28 362 @Western Illinois W 79 - 70 80%
Totals 16 - 12 13 - 7 -5 D+ -4 D- B- D C +0 C- D+ C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ C- F F+ D- 44% 22% 34% C+ D- C+ B- B- D C+ D- C- C C- B C C 47% 18% 35% D- C- D+ C- D+ C+ C- C+ C
1.03 56% 29% 28% -6 0 0.91 32% 1.1 .35 19% .32 67% .21 1.09 59% 34% 34% 0 +1 1.04 33% 1.1 .35 18% .32 71% .23
Nov
4		 Texas Tech F F+ F F F 32% 30% 38% C+ F+ C- F F+ C A+ C- A+ C- B C+ D- B 28% 15% 57% D+ B- F+ A+ B+ F D- A D+
0.78 47% 25% 25% -12 -2 0.74 23% 0.5 .13 18% .42 65% .27 1.28 56% 40% 41% +5 0 1.12 42% 0.7 .29 9% .33 65% .22
Nov
10		 Saint Louis F+ B D- F+ B- 42% 27% 31% C B- C+ A B+ F A+ F C+ D- F A+ F F 58% 2% 40% F+ F F F F A+ F B- F
0.81 60% 31% 27% -5 -1 0.92 28% 1.1 .31 30% .46 54% .25 1.35 76% 0% 50% +19 +4 1.48 48% 1.7 .83 25% .51 71% .36
Nov
14		 Charleston Southern D+ C- C+ B B- 40% 32% 28% D+ C+ C- F D- D A D A- B- F F A- C- 41% 4% 55% F+ D+ B A- B+ B- C D+ C
1.06 52% 39% 38% -1 -1 0.98 27% 0.8 .23 14% .46 68% .31 0.99 70% 50% 29% +1 +2 1.09 25% 0.7 .18 20% .26 69% .18
Nov
16		 Alabama A&M F A- C F F 43% 17% 40% C+ F C- B C+ F B F C D+ D- A+ F F 36% 20% 44% D F D+ F F+ B- F D F
0.96 70% 38% 16% -6 +1 0.91 29% 1.1 .32 21% .39 62% .24 1.09 63% 22% 40% +3 0 1.07 28% 1.3 .34 19% .46 76% .35
Nov
20		 Indiana F F F F F 40% 30% 30% C F A D- B D- B B+ B+ A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ 36% 18% 46% A- A+ B F C- D D- A- D+
0.75 19% 25% 13% -29 -1 0.42 37% 0.9 .35 20% .35 80% .28 1.03 39% 33% 30% -10 0 0.82 28% 1.3 .35 11% .40 72% .29
Nov
24		 UMKC D- B- F C+ C- 60% 13% 27% A- C D F F D+ A+ B A+ C+ D+ A+ C- C 54% 26% 20% F C- A C B A F F F
1.06 65% 14% 36% +1 +2 1.10 31% 0.5 .14 19% .44 74% .32 0.89 60% 17% 33% -5 0 0.93 21% 0.9 .18 25% .46 77% .35
Dec
2		 Northern Illinois A+ F F C F 59% 13% 28% B+ F A+ A+ A+ A- A C A A- A+ F F C 57% 9% 35% F C- D+ A+ A+ B F A+ D
1.33 47% 29% 33% -8 +2 0.91 50% 1.7 .83 13% .44 71% .31 0.86 38% 50% 44% -5 +3 0.98 35% 0.3 .09 24% .53 50% .27
Dec
6		 Eastern Illinois B B F F D 53% 14% 33% B D+ B- A+ A B B+ C B+ D+ B- A+ A+ A 61% 27% 12% F B F F F F C- B- C
1.14 67% 29% 18% -5 +2 0.96 38% 1.4 .53 17% .39 78% .30 1.03 50% 19% 14% -14 +1 0.76 33% 1.2 .40 13% .29 72% .21
Dec
18		 Western Illinois C C F+ A- C- 52% 19% 29% C+ C- B B+ A- D+ A+ F A D F+ A+ A+ D 62% 15% 24% F F+ B+ F D- D F A+ D+
1.21 63% 30% 40% +4 +1 1.12 39% 1.3 .49 16% .53 56% .30 1.00 62% 13% 23% -5 +2 0.96 21% 1.5 .32 15% .43 54% .23
Dec
23		 Missouri St. F+ B+ C F F 29% 27% 44% C+ F C- F F+ A A+ F B B F A+ A+ A- 36% 20% 44% D B+ C F D- F D+ A+ B
0.94 71% 38% 14% -9 -2 0.81 31% 0.8 .24 13% .52 58% .30 1.02 78% 10% 23% -6 0 0.90 33% 1.3 .43 13% .38 52% .20
Jan
1		 Morehead St. D C+ A+ A A- 55% 8% 37% A A F F F C+ B F D- B+ D+ B A+ B+ 40% 24% 36% D B B D C C+ B- A- B+
1.11 61% 75% 42% +9 +3 1.25 15% 0.4 .06 14% .37 50% .19 0.92 60% 33% 22% -7 0 0.88 31% 1.0 .31 19% .27 67% .18
Jan
3		 Southern Indiana C+ D+ F C- F 70% 19% 11% A- F+ A+ A+ A+ D+ F C+ F F F D- B+ F 46% 21% 32% D- F F+ C D B- B+ F C-
1.16 54% 10% 33% -8 +2 0.91 46% 1.5 .69 17% .20 75% .15 1.12 69% 42% 28% +3 0 1.09 33% 0.8 .27 20% .24 86% .21
Jan
6		 SIU Edwardsville F D- F F F 43% 23% 34% B- F C+ A+ A- D- D- F F B C+ A+ F C+ 32% 36% 32% B C+ B- D- C- B+ F D F
0.89 48% 17% 11% -21 0 0.60 36% 1.3 .44 19% .26 67% .18 0.95 53% 24% 40% -4 -2 0.89 26% 1.1 .29 21% .40 73% .29
Jan
10		 Arkansas Little Rock D B- A+ D- D 43% 12% 45% C+ D+ C- B+ B- F C- A- C F F D B F 42% 34% 25% C- F F C+ F C C- F F+
1.08 67% 50% 32% +4 +1 1.12 34% 1.1 .38 23% .27 79% .21 1.19 77% 39% 31% +7 -1 1.13 47% 0.9 .43 19% .25 86% .22
Jan
15		 Southeast Missouri St. C C F F+ F+ 61% 4% 35% A+ D+ B+ A+ A+ D+ A+ F B+ A- A+ A C+ A 50% 12% 38% F+ A- D+ F+ D- C F+ C+ D-
1.08 57% 0% 29% -5 +4 1.00 35% 1.5 .51 20% .53 66% .35 0.93 41% 29% 32% -11 +2 0.84 31% 1.4 .44 17% .39 65% .25
Jan
17		 Tennessee Martin F F+ D+ F F 18% 47% 36% F F D+ B- C- F A+ F+ A+ B- D B C- D 35% 26% 39% B D+ C+ C C+ B A+ F+ A
0.77 50% 33% 13% -15 -5 0.62 29% 1.0 .29 24% .50 63% .31 0.97 63% 36% 33% +1 -1 1.02 34% 0.9 .31 24% .20 73% .15
Jan
22		 Tennessee Tech C- A D F C- 61% 6% 33% A+ C+ B A+ A+ F B B+ B+ B+ A+ C- A- A+ 51% 27% 22% D+ A+ D- A+ B+ C+ F C+ F
1.17 71% 33% 24% +2 +4 1.14 37% 1.7 .63 24% .34 80% .27 0.89 36% 38% 27% -13 0 0.76 35% 0.7 .23 21% .50 73% .36
Jan
24		 Tennessee St. D+ D+ B B+ C 38% 28% 34% F C- D- A C- D C- A+ B+ F D+ F F F 56% 23% 21% F F C D- D+ B+ A+ B- A
1.10 55% 47% 39% +4 -1 1.08 24% 1.3 .31 20% .35 91% .32 1.23 63% 64% 46% +13 +1 1.29 31% 1.1 .34 19% .16 70% .11
Jan
29		 Southern Indiana F A F F F 44% 35% 21% F F C D+ C- F+ A+ B A+ A A+ D B- A+ 49% 19% 32% F A- F B- F+ A+ F A- D
0.94 70% 17% 18% -7 -1 0.85 33% 0.9 .29 19% .43 78% .34 0.77 23% 40% 29% -19 +1 0.66 41% 0.8 .31 27% .39 59% .23
Jan
31		 Morehead St. D+ A+ F A+ B 30% 20% 50% D- B- F+ A C- F A+ C- A+ C D- C A+ C 41% 33% 27% C+ C A C B+ F F D F
1.09 77% 0% 45% +6 -1 1.14 29% 1.1 .32 22% .51 69% .35 1.08 65% 38% 23% -2 -1 0.96 26% 0.9 .23 12% .47 77% .36
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
3		 SIU Edwardsville D- D D+ D+ D+ 40% 31% 29% D+ D+ A- F D+ F+ C F F+ D- F A+ F F 47% 27% 27% F F C C- C B F B- D-
0.99 50% 35% 31% -5 -1 0.89 42% 0.7 .29 19% .32 58% .19 1.07 70% 8% 54% +5 0 1.12 27% 1.0 .27 21% .36 67% .24
Feb
5		 Arkansas Little Rock B- F F A+ F 45% 25% 29% D F B C B- B+ A D- B+ D+ B- F A+ A 34% 26% 40% D B+ F+ F F F F+ D- F
1.17 48% 23% 53% 0 0 1.02 41% 0.9 .38 16% .37 67% .25 1.09 56% 43% 19% -8 -1 0.83 36% 1.4 .51 13% .31 72% .22



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.8 9.3 5.3 15.4 1st
2nd 0.4 10.7 10.0 0.5 21.5 2nd
3rd 4.0 14.5 1.0 19.5 3rd
4th 0.9 10.8 4.6 0.0 16.3 4th
5th 0.2 4.9 9.1 0.3 14.4 5th
6th 0.2 2.5 7.3 1.9 11.9 6th
7th 0.2 0.6 0.2 1.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.3 3.4 13.2 26.1 30.9 20.3 5.7 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 91.6% 5.3    3.1 2.0 0.1
14-6 45.9% 9.3    0.9 4.0 3.5 0.9 0.1
13-7 2.6% 0.8    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 15.4% 15.4 4.0 6.1 3.8 1.2 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 5.7% 34.9% 34.9% 14.8 0.1 0.5 1.3 0.2 3.7
14-6 20.3% 28.2% 28.2% 15.7 0.1 1.9 3.8 14.6
13-7 30.9% 16.1% 16.1% 15.8 1.1 3.9 25.9
12-8 26.1% 8.2% 8.2% 15.9 0.0 0.2 1.9 24.0
11-9 13.2% 4.7% 4.7% 15.9 0.1 0.6 12.6
10-10 3.4% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.1 3.2
9-11 0.3% 5.9% 5.9% 16.0 0.0 0.3
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 15.6% 15.6% 0.0% 15.6 84.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.0% 100.0% 14.8 2.5 25.0 63.5 9.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.3%