Morehead St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.4#278
Expected Predictive Rating-4.8#251
Pace64.2#299
Improvement+2.4#58

Offense
Total Offense-3.3#264
First Shot-3.2#266
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#190
Layup/Dunks-1.8#246
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#105
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#314
Freethrows+2.0#70
Improvement+1.6#77

Defense
Total Defense-3.1#274
First Shot-3.1#276
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#184
Layups/Dunks+0.4#156
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#349
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#138
Freethrows-1.6#291
Improvement+0.8#118
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.6% 17.7% 11.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 55.5% 68.3% 43.0%
.500 or above in Conference 83.4% 91.3% 75.7%
Conference Champion 25.4% 34.3% 16.7%
Last Place in Conference 1.9% 0.7% 3.0%
First Four8.2% 8.9% 7.5%
First Round10.5% 13.2% 7.9%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Indiana (Away) - 49.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 00 - 2
Quad 31 - 31 - 6
Quad 414 - 915 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 54   @ Louisville L 45-93 5%     0 - 1 -35.1 -25.5 -6.7
  Nov 08, 2024 26   @ Cincinnati L 56-83 2%     0 - 2 -9.9 +0.5 -13.7
  Nov 14, 2024 172   @ Chattanooga L 62-76 20%     0 - 3 -11.7 -12.4 +0.9
  Nov 20, 2024 281   Austin Peay W 63-58 62%     1 - 3 -4.5 -3.0 -0.9
  Nov 27, 2024 356   NJIT L 69-78 74%     1 - 4 -22.0 +1.0 -24.0
  Nov 29, 2024 207   @ Cleveland St. W 71-69 25%     2 - 4 +2.7 +1.6 +1.2
  Dec 04, 2024 211   @ Marshall L 77-80 25%     2 - 5 -2.5 +5.7 -8.2
  Dec 07, 2024 150   @ Ohio L 76-88 18%     2 - 6 -8.8 +0.0 -8.3
  Dec 19, 2024 286   Tennessee Martin W 70-69 OT 63%     3 - 6 1 - 0 -8.9 -7.6 -1.3
  Dec 21, 2024 323   Tennessee St. W 74-68 71%     4 - 6 2 - 0 -6.1 +0.4 -6.1
  Dec 31, 2024 326   @ Southern Indiana L 68-69 50%    
  Jan 04, 2025 328   @ Tennessee Tech W 70-69 51%    
  Jan 09, 2025 247   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 64-69 32%    
  Jan 11, 2025 269   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 68-72 38%    
  Jan 16, 2025 331   Western Illinois W 70-63 73%    
  Jan 18, 2025 347   Lindenwood W 73-65 78%    
  Jan 23, 2025 325   @ Eastern Illinois L 67-68 50%    
  Jan 25, 2025 280   @ SIU Edwardsville L 65-68 39%    
  Jan 28, 2025 326   Southern Indiana W 72-66 70%    
  Jan 30, 2025 328   Tennessee Tech W 73-67 71%    
  Feb 06, 2025 269   Southeast Missouri St. W 71-69 58%    
  Feb 08, 2025 247   Arkansas Little Rock W 67-66 53%    
  Feb 13, 2025 347   @ Lindenwood W 70-68 58%    
  Feb 15, 2025 331   Western Illinois W 70-63 73%    
  Feb 20, 2025 280   SIU Edwardsville W 68-65 60%    
  Feb 22, 2025 325   Eastern Illinois W 70-64 70%    
  Feb 27, 2025 323   @ Tennessee St. L 72-73 48%    
  Mar 01, 2025 286   @ Tennessee Martin L 67-70 41%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.6 5.6 6.7 5.2 3.2 1.4 0.3 0.0 25.4 1st
2nd 0.4 3.5 6.6 5.4 2.2 0.5 0.1 18.5 2nd
3rd 0.2 3.0 6.3 4.1 1.1 0.1 0.0 14.8 3rd
4th 0.0 2.0 5.5 3.3 0.6 0.0 11.5 4th
5th 0.8 4.2 3.5 0.6 0.0 9.2 5th
6th 0.3 2.4 3.5 0.5 0.0 6.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 2.6 0.8 0.0 5.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 2.0 1.0 0.0 3.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.9 0.1 2.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.1 1.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.9 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.5 4.7 7.0 10.7 13.0 14.0 13.9 12.2 8.9 5.7 3.3 1.4 0.3 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3
18-2 100.0% 1.4    1.4
17-3 98.5% 3.2    3.1 0.1
16-4 91.8% 5.2    4.4 0.8 0.1
15-5 75.0% 6.7    4.5 2.0 0.2 0.0
14-6 46.3% 5.6    2.5 2.4 0.7 0.0
13-7 18.4% 2.6    0.5 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
12-8 2.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-9 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 25.4% 25.4 16.7 6.4 1.9 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.3% 34.5% 34.5% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
18-2 1.4% 43.2% 43.2% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.8
17-3 3.3% 38.8% 38.8% 15.4 0.1 0.6 0.6 2.0
16-4 5.7% 34.0% 34.0% 15.7 0.0 0.5 1.4 3.7
15-5 8.9% 30.2% 30.2% 15.9 0.3 2.4 6.2
14-6 12.2% 23.8% 23.8% 16.0 0.1 2.8 9.3
13-7 13.9% 18.0% 18.0% 16.0 0.0 2.4 11.4
12-8 14.0% 9.7% 9.7% 16.0 0.0 1.3 12.7
11-9 13.0% 5.1% 5.1% 16.0 0.7 12.3
10-10 10.7% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.3 10.4
9-11 7.0% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.1 6.8
8-12 4.7% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 4.7
7-13 2.5% 2.5
6-14 1.5% 1.5
5-15 0.6% 0.6
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 14.6% 14.6% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.0 12.2 85.4 0.0%