Morehead St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.7 292
Expected Predictive Rating -5.0 243
Pace 64.7 285
Improvement +4.1 38

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- #231 D+ C- C- C D
Defense D #323 D+ C- D+ C- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 164 56% 237 -0.6 202
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% 36 38% 174 +3.2 41
Three Pointers 32% 341 32% 253 -5.5 335
1st FG Attempt 0.96 266 -2.9 266
Second Chance 34.2% 79 0.88 336 0.30 198
Turnovers 18.1% 258
Freethrows 0.30 205 73% 149 0.22 182
Total Offense -2.4 231

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 126 58% 178 -1.2 217
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 333 42% 305 +1.5 79
Three Pointers 44% 91 37% 322 -3.7 324
1st FG Attempt 1.09 290 -3.4 290
Second Chance 36.6% 352 0.92 44 0.34 247
Turnovers 15.1% 293
Freethrows 0.33 261 70% 81 0.23 234
Total Defense -5.3 323

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -1.0 309 +0.8 317
Shot Type Accuracy -1.9 237 +2.5 279
Possession Length 18.7 324 16.7 72
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 278 0.23 341
Improvement +3.6 #31 +0.5 #150

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6% 8% 4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 38% 47% 17%
.500 or above in Conference 99% 100% 98%
Conference Champion 11% 14% 2%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four3% 4% 2%
First Round5% 6% 2%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Tennessee Tech (Home) - 69.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 31 - 8
Quad 413 - 814 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 63 @Wake Forest L 65 - 81 5% -8  21% 0 - 1 C- -5 F -13 F D+ D- A +11 A D A+
 Sun, Nov 9 36 @Georgia L 81 - 120 2% -21  0% 0 - 2 F -22 C+ +3 D- A+ C F -20 F F D-
 Tue, Nov 11 38 @Clemson L 56 - 83 2% -17  0% 0 - 3 D -10 C +1 F A+ C+ F -15 C- F+ F
 Fri, Nov 21 126 @East Tennessee St. L 62 - 77 12% -2  42% 0 - 4 D -10 D- -7 C- F+ F D+ -5 B+ D- D+
 Sat, Nov 22 356 Louisiana Monroe W 83 - 80 75% +0  56% 1 - 4 D- -12 C- -1 C- C- C+ F+ -11 D+ C F+
 Sat, Nov 29 332 @IU Indianapolis L 80 - 85 51% -2  37% 1 - 5 D- -13 F -13 F F F C +0 F A C-
 Tue, Dec 2 112 @Murray St. L 52 - 84 10% -10  17% 1 - 6 F -26 F -22 F F C- D+ -5 B- D- C+
 Sat, Dec 6 272 @Presbyterian L 72 - 80 34% -3  21% 1 - 7 D- -11 C- -2 B- F C F+ -9 F+ F A
 Tue, Dec 16 301 Arkansas Little Rock W 78 - 64 63% +10  85% 2 - 7 1 - 0 C+ +3 D- -7 D- C+ F A- +9 B+ C C
 Sat, Dec 20 340 @Southern Indiana W 64 - 60 OT 54% -5  13% 3 - 7 2 - 0 C- -5 D -5 F D- B+ C+ +1 C- B- B-
 Thu, Jan 1 246 @Lindenwood L 64 - 77 28% -6  2% 3 - 8 2 - 1 F+ -15 F+ -10 F+ D+ D+ D+ -5 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 245 @SIU Edwardsville W 73 - 72 28% -2  31% 4 - 8 3 - 1 C -1 B+ +8 A+ D+ F D- -9 F+ D F+
 Thu, Jan 8 219 Tennessee Martin L 68 - 76 44% +3  71% 4 - 9 3 - 2 D- -14 C+ +2 C B+ D- F -17 F D- F
 Sat, Jan 10 230 Southeast Missouri St. W 71 - 69 46% -4  9% 5 - 9 4 - 2 C- -5 B- +5 A D+ D+ F+ -9 C+ C+ F
 Thu, Jan 15 235 @Tennessee St. L 100 - 105 OT 27% -5  2% 5 - 10 4 - 3 D+ -6 A +13 C- C A+ F -19 F F D+
 Sat, Jan 17 320 @Tennessee Tech W 76 - 70 47% +7  80% 6 - 10 5 - 3 C -1 B- +4 F+ A- A D+ -5 B- F F
 Thu, Jan 22 362 Western Illinois W 71 - 66 87% +1  56% 7 - 10 6 - 3 F+ -15 D- -7 F A C- D- -8 D+ F F
 Sat, Jan 24 326 Eastern Illinois W 73 - 68 70% +0  43% 8 - 10 7 - 3 D -8 B- +4 B+ A F F -12 B F C+
 Thu, Jan 29 245 SIU Edwardsville W 67 - 65 50% -2  28% 9 - 10 8 - 3 D+ -6 D+ -2 C+ F A- C- -3 F A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 31 246 Lindenwood L 78 - 79 50% +2  59% 9 - 11 8 - 4 D -9 C- -2 D F+ A D -7 F C+ B
 Thu, Feb 5 230 @Southeast Missouri St. L 70 - 82 25% -9  0% 9 - 12 8 - 5 D- -13 D -5 C+ C- D+ D- -8 F F A-
 Sat, Feb 7 219 @Tennessee Martin W 61 - 55 23% +0  40% 10 - 12 9 - 5 B- +6 C- -1 D+ C+ D- A- +8 A+ B+ F
 Thu, Feb 12 320 Tennessee Tech W 77 - 72 70%
 Sat, Feb 14 235 Tennessee St. L 77 - 78 48%
 Thu, Feb 19 326 @Eastern Illinois L 67 - 68 48%
 Sat, Feb 21 362 @Western Illinois W 73 - 67 72%
 Tue, Feb 24 340 Southern Indiana W 73 - 66 75%
 Thu, Feb 26 301 @Arkansas Little Rock L 70 - 73 41%
Totals 14 - 14 13 - 7 -8 C- -2 D+ C- C- D -5 D+ C- D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C- C D+ C- 39% 29% 32% D D+ B- D- C- C- C C+ C D C D D D+ 41% 15% 44% D D+ F+ B C- D+ D+ B- C-
1.05 56% 38% 32% -2 -1 0.96 34% 0.9 .30 18% .30 73% .22 1.16 58% 42% 37% +2 +1 1.09 37% 0.9 .34 15% .33 70% .21
Nov
7		 Wake Forest F D+ F F F 33% 10% 57% B- F D+ C- D+ D- D+ A C A A B- A A+ 54% 10% 36% F A F A+ D A+ F A+ F+
0.82 53% 20% 21% -15 +1 0.75 27% 1.0 .27 24% .28 82% .23 1.02 48% 40% 28% -8 +2 0.90 50% 0.9 .43 24% .49 60% .30
Nov
9		 Georgia C+ F D+ C- F+ 44% 22% 35% C+ D- A A+ A+ C A- D B F F A+ F F 48% 5% 48% F+ F F+ F F D- D+ B- C-
1.01 38% 33% 32% -11 0 0.80 43% 1.3 .55 20% .31 65% .20 1.50 72% 0% 45% +13 +3 1.33 43% 1.4 .59 11% .37 73% .27
Nov
11		 Clemson C F C F F 27% 31% 42% D- F A+ C+ A+ C+ D- D+ D- F C F D D+ 37% 14% 49% B- C- F B- F+ F B- D- C
0.94 33% 36% 21% -15 -2 0.67 43% 1.0 .43 18% .23 73% .16 1.39 61% 57% 38% +7 +1 1.16 41% 1.0 .41 8% .33 78% .26
Nov
21		 East Tennessee St. D- B+ B- C+ B- 31% 33% 36% F C- B+ F F+ F A+ D A+ D+ C- F A+ A 56% 13% 31% F B+ F A D- D+ F C+ F
0.95 67% 38% 36% +4 -2 1.05 35% 0.5 .16 28% .51 71% .36 1.18 60% 50% 14% -6 +2 0.93 42% 0.9 .39 14% .59 76% .45
Nov
22		 Louisiana Monroe C- B- D A+ C+ 36% 30% 34% F C- B F+ C- C+ A+ D- A+ F+ B+ F C+ D+ 38% 14% 48% D- D+ F A+ C F+ B- D C+
1.17 65% 36% 44% +7 -1 1.13 42% 0.9 .39 16% .48 66% .32 1.13 45% 63% 32% -3 +1 0.98 34% 0.7 .23 14% .28 76% .21
Nov
29		 IU Indianapolis F B- F F F 47% 22% 31% D F C+ F F F A+ B- A+ C F A C- F 29% 11% 60% D- F A+ B A C- B F B-
0.98 65% 18% 27% -4 0 0.94 38% 0.7 .26 27% .54 78% .42 1.04 83% 29% 34% +6 +1 1.16 18% 1.0 .18 16% .13 78% .10
Dec
2		 Murray St. F F A+ F F 49% 30% 21% C F F F F C- F F F D+ C A- B B+ 46% 6% 48% F B- F A D- C+ F A F
0.77 35% 50% 27% -10 0 0.81 23% 0.6 .13 16% .18 50% .09 1.25 59% 33% 30% -2 +2 1.02 48% 0.9 .45 16% .52 69% .36
Dec
6		 Presbyterian C- C- C- A+ B- 44% 15% 40% C+ B- F F F C D B+ C- F+ D F C+ F+ 43% 20% 36% D F+ F B F A F B+ F
1.06 57% 38% 43% +5 +1 1.13 21% 0.6 .12 15% .26 73% .19 1.18 63% 56% 31% +4 0 1.11 53% 0.9 .47 25% .59 63% .37
Dec
16		 Arkansas Little Rock D- C+ F B+ D- 57% 22% 22% C+ D- B+ D C+ F A+ B A+ A- C- B+ A+ A- 38% 32% 30% C- B+ A+ F C C F D- F
1.05 65% 20% 40% +2 +1 1.09 42% 0.8 .35 24% .44 76% .34 0.86 61% 27% 21% -8 -1 0.83 18% 1.7 .29 19% .41 72% .30
Dec
20		 Southern Indiana D F+ F+ C- F 54% 28% 18% D+ F D D- D- B+ A- D- B C+ A+ A D D+ 17% 25% 58% A C- F A+ B- B- F F F
1.01 48% 29% 33% -8 0 0.86 29% 0.8 .23 13% .40 68% .27 0.95 25% 25% 36% -7 -2 0.83 40% 0.4 .18 19% .43 77% .33
Jan
1		 Lindenwood F+ C+ D+ F F+ 40% 24% 36% D- F+ C- D+ D+ D+ D- D D- D+ D+ F F F 55% 8% 37% F F A+ A+ A+ F D- A+ B-
0.92 60% 33% 22% -7 0 0.88 31% 1.0 .31 19% .27 67% .18 1.11 61% 75% 42% +9 +3 1.25 15% 0.4 .06 14% .37 50% .19
Jan
3		 SIU Edwardsville B+ A+ A+ D+ A+ 43% 19% 38% B A+ D+ D+ D+ F A+ B- A+ D- B- F C D- 38% 20% 42% F F+ F B+ D F+ C- F+ D+
1.15 72% 50% 31% +7 +1 1.17 31% 0.9 .27 24% .45 77% .35 1.13 53% 60% 33% +2 0 1.06 39% 0.8 .33 14% .29 75% .22
Jan
8		 Tennessee Martin C+ C+ D+ F+ C- 47% 13% 40% A C A+ D- B+ D- A- C- B+ F D F F F 36% 18% 45% C- F F B- D- F F C- F
1.10 62% 33% 28% -2 +2 1.00 51% 0.8 .40 21% .39 68% .27 1.23 63% 50% 40% +8 0 1.18 46% 0.8 .39 16% .52 67% .35
Jan
10		 Southeast Missouri St. B- A A+ A- A+ 41% 34% 24% F A A F D+ D+ D+ D+ D F+ D- A A- C 41% 22% 37% B- C+ D- A+ C+ F F+ C D-
1.18 71% 57% 40% +14 -2 1.27 38% 0.8 .29 20% .37 72% .27 1.14 65% 27% 28% -3 0 0.96 33% 1.0 .33 8% .38 67% .25
Jan
15		 Tennessee St. A F A A C 40% 26% 33% F+ C- B F+ C A+ A+ A+ A+ F F+ F F F 39% 34% 27% B- F C- F F D+ F B F
1.29 48% 53% 42% +4 -1 1.09 36% 0.9 .33 10% .49 85% .42 1.35 68% 47% 67% +20 -2 1.39 31% 1.3 .41 14% .39 69% .27
Jan
17		 Tennessee Tech B- D F+ A- D- 31% 39% 31% F F+ A+ D A- A C+ B- B- D+ B- D+ A+ B+ 57% 21% 21% F B- D- F F F F A- F+
1.20 53% 32% 40% -1 -3 0.94 46% 1.1 .51 11% .32 78% .25 1.10 52% 40% 20% -8 +1 0.89 35% 1.3 .44 13% .40 68% .27
Jan
22		 Western Illinois D- C- D- F F 48% 27% 25% D F A+ D+ A C- B+ F D- D- A+ D+ D- D+ 33% 25% 42% D+ D+ C F F F A- A+ A+
1.10 61% 31% 17% -7 0 0.88 50% 1.0 .52 16% .37 50% .18 1.03 35% 38% 36% -6 -1 0.88 26% 1.4 .36 11% .23 46% .10
Jan
24		 Eastern Illinois B- C A- A+ A+ 38% 43% 20% F B+ A+ D A F A+ A+ A+ F A+ B- F A- 45% 28% 28% D- B F B- F C+ F F F
1.17 60% 47% 50% +9 -3 1.15 52% 1.0 .52 27% .53 88% .46 1.09 24% 31% 46% -12 0 0.77 51% 0.9 .49 19% .48 83% .40
Jan
29		 SIU Edwardsville D+ B- D C B- 45% 34% 20% D+ C+ F+ F+ F A- A D A- C- D+ B F F 33% 20% 47% F F B+ A+ A+ D+ A A A
1.04 60% 33% 33% -1 -1 0.98 26% 0.8 .20 12% .42 71% .30 1.01 59% 30% 42% +4 0 1.10 23% 0.5 .11 17% .19 60% .11
Jan
31		 Lindenwood C- B C+ F C- 41% 33% 27% F D D- F+ F+ A A+ A- A+ D F A+ F F 30% 20% 50% B F B- C- C+ B F D+ F
1.08 65% 38% 23% -2 -1 0.96 26% 0.9 .23 12% .47 77% .36 1.09 77% 0% 45% +6 -1 1.14 29% 1.1 .32 22% .51 69% .35
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Southeast Missouri St. D D A+ C+ B- 48% 23% 29% C- C+ D B+ C- D+ F B F D- B F F F 51% 13% 36% F+ F F D F A- F C- F+
1.00 52% 64% 36% +4 0 1.10 24% 1.3 .32 20% .25 79% .20 1.17 50% 50% 47% +5 +2 1.15 37% 1.4 .50 21% .40 68% .27
Feb
7		 Tennessee Martin C- D D- A C 22% 41% 37% F D+ B+ D+ C+ D- B+ A+ A+ A- A+ A- A+ A+ 27% 7% 67% D- A+ F A+ B+ F F D+ F
1.01 56% 29% 40% -1 -4 0.93 39% 0.8 .33 22% .38 89% .34 0.91 42% 33% 20% -19 +1 0.67 45% 0.6 .25 15% .49 68% .33



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.6 6.4 3.5 10.5 1st
2nd 0.3 9.4 10.5 1.0 21.2 2nd
3rd 3.7 15.0 1.3 20.0 3rd
4th 1.1 11.9 4.8 0.1 17.9 4th
5th 0.3 6.0 9.2 0.2 15.7 5th
6th 0.2 3.1 8.0 1.6 12.9 6th
7th 0.4 1.0 0.4 1.8 7th
8th 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.6 4.4 15.6 26.7 30.0 18.3 4.5 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 77.4% 3.5    1.5 1.8 0.2
14-6 35.1% 6.4    0.5 2.1 2.8 1.0 0.1
13-7 2.1% 0.6    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 10.5% 10.5 1.9 3.9 3.1 1.2 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 4.5% 21.3% 21.3% 15.4 0.0 0.5 0.4 3.5
14-6 18.3% 12.8% 12.8% 15.9 0.0 0.2 2.1 15.9
13-7 30.0% 6.6% 6.6% 15.9 0.2 1.8 28.0
12-8 26.7% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.0 0.9 25.8
11-9 15.6% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.2 15.3
10-10 4.4% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 4.3
9-11 0.6% 0.6
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 6.5% 6.5% 0.0% 15.8 93.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 15.4 3.2 52.6 44.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.5%
Lose Out 0.4%