Louisiana Monroe
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -14.7 356
Expected Predictive Rating -20.1 363
Pace 75.1 32
Improvement +2.3 91

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D- #344 D D- C- C C-
Defense D- #352 F+ F+ C- B+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 248 50% 344 -4.1 317
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 151 35% 268 -0.1 180
Three Pointers 42% 160 32% 266 -0.9 215
1st FG Attempt 0.92 326 -5.1 326
Second Chance 23.4% 344 0.98 254 0.23 339
Turnovers 17.8% 239
Freethrows 0.31 160 72% 184 0.23 155
Total Offense -7.3 344

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 155 65% 339 -3.6 307
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 343 44% 337 +1.4 85
Three Pointers 46% 51 37% 309 -4.5 343
1st FG Attempt 1.15 355 -6.7 355
Second Chance 36.5% 350 1.13 312 0.41 355
Turnovers 16.0% 235
Freethrows 0.25 32 70% 67 0.17 30
Total Defense -7.4 352

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.3 235 +0.8 319
Shot Type Accuracy -4.7 329 +5.6 351
Possession Length 17.0 133 15.9 15
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 294 0.22 331
Improvement +0.6 #144 +1.7 #91

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 100% 100% 100%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Texas St. (Away) - 10.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 50 - 7
Quad 30 - 60 - 13
Quad 42 - 142 - 27


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 314 @Northern Illinois L 82 - 102 21% -10  19% 0 - 1 F -26 C +1 C+ C- C F -26 F F B-
 Fri, Nov 7 65 @Mississippi L 65 - 86 2% -17  0% 0 - 2 D -10 D- -8 C F D C -1 D D A
 Thu, Nov 13 298 @Houston Christian L 61 - 72 18% +3  60% 0 - 3 F+ -16 F -18 F F F+ B- +2 C C D-
 Mon, Nov 17 196 Lamar L 66 - 79 19% -9  0% 0 - 4 F -18 F -13 F+ C- D D+ -5 C- B- F+
 Sat, Nov 22 292 Morehead St. L 80 - 83 25% -0  35% 0 - 5 D -11 C- -2 D F+ C+ D- -9 F F+ D
 Sun, Nov 23 126 @East Tennessee St. L 55 - 97 4% -20  0% 0 - 6 F -37 F -18 F D+ C+ F -20 F F C-
 Wed, Dec 3 365 Mississippi Valley W 66 - 52 87% +4  82% 1 - 6 D- -13 F -15 F F D+ B- +3 A+ C F
 Sun, Dec 7 105 @Stephen F. Austin L 76 - 96 3% -11  0% 1 - 7 D- -13 C+ +3 F A- A F -14 F C- D
 Sat, Dec 13 41 @Miami (FL) L 79 - 104 1% -12  0% 1 - 8 D -9 A- +10 A- C+ A F -19 F D- F
 Wed, Dec 17 191 South Alabama L 92 - 96 2OT 18% +7  72% 1 - 9 0 - 1 D -9 D+ -2 B A F D -6 F+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 290 Louisiana L 62 - 76 34% -12  0% 1 - 10 0 - 2 F -24 F -11 F C F F -15 F A- F
 Sun, Dec 28 101 @Kansas St. L 85 - 94 3% -6  27% 1 - 11 C -1 C+ +3 A- F C- C- -3 D+ B+ C
 Thu, Jan 1 241 Southern Miss L 73 - 87 25% -11  0% 1 - 12 0 - 3 F -22 F -11 F+ D+ B- F+ -9 F C- A-
 Sat, Jan 3 234 Texas St. L 79 - 84 23% -3  12% 1 - 13 0 - 4 D- -12 C- -1 A F C- F+ -11 D+ F D+
 Thu, Jan 8 290 @Louisiana L 79 - 85 17% -3  21% 1 - 14 0 - 5 D -10 C +1 B F+ C+ F -12 F F B+
 Sat, Jan 10 241 @Southern Miss L 60 - 70 11% +0  48% 1 - 15 0 - 6 D- -12 F -13 F F+ F+ C+ +1 B D F
 Sat, Jan 17 276 Georgia St. L 57 - 77 31% -9  8% 1 - 16 0 - 7 F -29 F -19 F F C F -12 F C+ D-
 Thu, Jan 22 164 @Marshall L 60 - 115 6% -28  2% 1 - 17 0 - 8 F -52 F -18 F D C+ F -31 F F C-
 Fri, Jan 23 161 @Appalachian St. L 43 - 59 6% -8  15% 1 - 18 0 - 9 D- -13 F -28 F F D- A+ +15 B A+ C
 Fri, Jan 30 274 Georgia Southern L 76 - 79 30% -2  18% 1 - 19 0 - 10 D- -12 F -10 D+ D- D+ C- -2 C+ D B+
 Sun, Feb 1 238 Coastal Carolina L 79 - 83 24% -5  0% 1 - 20 0 - 11 D- -11 B +6 A- C- B F -17 F F C-
 Wed, Feb 4 253 @Old Dominion W 85 - 79 12% +6  97% 2 - 20 1 - 11 C+ +4 B- +5 C D- D- C -1 B- F+ D
 Sat, Feb 7 310 Ball St. L 68 - 73 40% -8  0% 2 - 21 F+ -17 F -11 F C+ B- D -6 D F B+
 Wed, Feb 11 141 @Arkansas St. L 70 - 103 5% -15  0% 2 - 22 1 - 12 F -29 D- -7 D- D+ C- F -20 F F F
 Sat, Feb 14 234 @Texas St. L 67 - 81 10%
 Wed, Feb 18 135 Troy L 70 - 83 10%
 Sat, Feb 21 141 Arkansas St. L 76 - 89 12%
 Wed, Feb 25 191 @South Alabama L 64 - 80 7%
 Fri, Feb 27 135 @Troy L 67 - 86 3%
Totals 2 - 27 1 - 17 -15 D- -7 D D- C- D- -7 F+ F+ C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D- D- D+ D+ D- 36% 22% 42% C- D D- C- D- C- C+ C C D- D- D- D F+ 40% 15% 46% D F+ F+ D F+ C- B+ B- B+
0.98 50% 35% 32% -5 0 0.92 23% 1.0 .23 18% .31 72% .23 1.19 65% 44% 37% +6 +1 1.15 36% 1.1 .41 16% .25 70% .22
Nov
3		 Northern Illinois C D A+ A B- 40% 20% 40% D+ C+ F A+ C- C C+ C+ C+ F C+ F D F+ 51% 4% 45% F F F F F B- F F+ F
1.09 55% 50% 40% +5 0 1.12 19% 1.7 .32 17% .36 73% .26 1.36 52% 100% 36% +1 +3 1.10 61% 1.6 1.00 24% .46 73% .33
Nov
7		 Mississippi D- F B- C C+ 22% 28% 50% D C F F+ F D D+ F F+ C C+ B+ F D 26% 26% 47% D- D B- F D A A B+ A
0.88 42% 40% 33% -3 -2 0.91 20% 0.9 .18 20% .29 59% .17 1.16 60% 33% 44% +7 -2 1.12 29% 1.4 .39 18% .21 69% .15
Nov
13		 Houston Christian F F+ C D F 43% 15% 42% C F F D+ F F+ F A+ F B- C+ C+ B- C+ 45% 11% 45% F C C+ D+ C D- A+ F A-
0.87 52% 38% 32% -4 +1 0.96 12% 1.0 .12 21% .13 86% .11 1.03 56% 33% 32% -3 +2 1.00 28% 0.9 .25 14% .17 80% .13
Nov
17		 Lamar F D- F C+ F 43% 22% 35% C+ F+ C- D+ C- D A- F D+ D+ D F A+ C- 28% 33% 38% C C- C B- B- F+ D+ B C-
0.92 52% 18% 35% -6 0 0.90 29% 1.0 .29 19% .45 54% .24 1.10 59% 50% 26% 0 -2 0.97 33% 0.9 .31 13% .25 69% .17
Nov
22		 Morehead St. C- F A+ D+ D- 38% 14% 48% C D D+ F F+ C+ D- A- D+ D- D- C+ F F 36% 30% 34% C+ F F D+ F+ D F A F
1.13 45% 63% 32% -3 +1 0.98 34% 0.7 .23 14% .28 76% .21 1.17 65% 36% 44% +7 -1 1.13 42% 0.9 .39 16% .48 66% .32
Nov
23		 East Tennessee St. F D F F F 31% 20% 49% D- F F A- D+ C+ D B D+ F F F F F 43% 17% 40% C- F F F F C- A+ D A+
0.79 53% 20% 21% -15 -1 0.71 21% 1.1 .23 19% .25 79% .20 1.40 76% 50% 43% +16 +1 1.34 39% 1.4 .54 14% .17 80% .14
Dec
3		 Mississippi Valley F A+ F F+ F 36% 17% 48% C F F F F D+ A+ F+ A+ B- B- B+ A+ A+ 27% 43% 29% B- A+ D+ B- C F B C+ B
1.02 80% 0% 30% -1 0 1.00 24% 1.0 .24 18% .55 69% .38 0.80 50% 32% 13% -14 -4 0.67 26% 0.8 .21 15% .24 69% .16
Dec
7		 Stephen F. Austin C+ D F F F 46% 18% 37% B- F C+ A+ A- A A A- A+ F F A+ F F 38% 24% 38% D F C D C- D B- B+ B-
1.04 50% 30% 19% -13 +1 0.77 30% 1.4 .42 12% .38 79% .30 1.32 91% 21% 45% +15 0 1.31 32% 1.1 .35 11% .20 62% .12
Dec
13		 Miami (FL) A- D F A+ A- 29% 18% 54% C+ A- C- B+ C+ A D+ F D- F D- F F F 59% 3% 38% F F F C+ D- F A A+ A+
1.11 50% 20% 47% +5 0 1.11 23% 1.2 .28 14% .23 57% .13 1.47 71% 50% 45% +14 +4 1.38 47% 1.0 .47 11% .27 53% .14
Dec
17		 South Alabama D+ A- F A A- 12% 15% 73% F+ B D A+ A F A+ A- A+ D F F A F 38% 16% 46% C+ F+ B F F A+ B F C-
1.05 71% 22% 40% +5 -1 1.10 28% 1.8 .50 27% .33 81% .27 1.10 78% 50% 25% +3 0 1.10 20% 2.1 .43 19% .27 79% .21
Dec
20		 Louisiana F F F+ A F 36% 28% 36% F F F A+ C F A+ A- A+ F F C- F F 30% 30% 40% D+ F B+ A A- F F A+ C-
0.97 36% 27% 43% -6 -1 0.87 23% 1.4 .33 22% .67 79% .52 1.19 67% 40% 50% +13 -2 1.24 21% 0.7 .14 9% .31 56% .17
Dec
28		 Kansas St. C+ A- B- A+ A+ 33% 33% 33% F+ A- F F F C- A+ C A+ C- F B- B+ D+ 40% 10% 50% D D+ D- A+ B+ C F D+ F
1.07 65% 41% 41% +7 -2 1.12 20% 0.9 .17 19% .53 71% .37 1.19 83% 33% 31% +7 +1 1.19 39% 0.7 .29 16% .36 75% .27
Jan
1		 Southern Miss F F B- D F 39% 21% 39% C- F+ F A+ D+ B- C F+ D+ F+ F+ F D- F 49% 13% 38% F F D- B+ C- A- A+ F A-
0.95 45% 42% 32% -5 0 0.91 14% 1.7 .24 16% .34 64% .22 1.13 69% 71% 35% +11 +2 1.26 36% 0.9 .32 22% .25 87% .22
Jan
3		 Texas St. C- A- F A+ A+ 37% 19% 44% D+ A F F F C- D- D F+ F+ C- D- A D+ 49% 31% 20% C- D+ F F F D+ A A+ A
1.08 68% 20% 52% +12 0 1.27 14% 0.5 .07 19% .27 69% .19 1.15 59% 44% 25% 0 0 1.00 43% 1.3 .54 18% .20 67% .13
Jan
8		 Louisiana C C- F+ A+ B 58% 15% 27% B B F A+ F+ C+ C C C F D F C F 28% 22% 50% F+ F F F+ F B+ D A+ C+
1.11 57% 29% 54% +6 +2 1.19 15% 1.5 .23 17% .37 73% .27 1.19 60% 67% 33% +7 -1 1.13 49% 1.1 .51 21% .27 53% .14
Jan
10		 Southern Miss F F F C+ F 42% 6% 52% A- F B- F F+ F+ D C- D C+ C- A+ A- B+ 35% 27% 37% D+ B A F D F D A C
0.88 40% 0% 36% -8 +2 0.90 31% 0.6 .18 21% .30 69% .20 1.03 61% 21% 26% -8 -1 0.84 23% 1.6 .36 13% .41 67% .27
Jan
17		 Georgia St. F F C- D F 31% 26% 43% F+ F F+ F F C F D+ F F D C+ F F 18% 16% 65% D F A- F C+ D- A+ A A+
0.85 35% 36% 30% -10 -1 0.80 26% 0.6 .16 16% .18 70% .13 1.15 60% 33% 42% +7 -1 1.15 21% 1.3 .26 13% .17 70% .12
Jan
22		 Marshall F F A+ F F 35% 19% 46% B- F F B- D C+ A+ C+ A+ F C A+ F F 26% 7% 67% F F F F F C- A+ D- A
0.81 28% 50% 17% -20 0 0.62 24% 1.0 .24 16% .47 72% .34 1.55 63% 25% 51% +18 +1 1.39 54% 1.3 .71 18% .15 78% .11
Jan
23		 Appalachian St. F F F F F 47% 9% 43% A F F F F D- B- C B- A+ D F A+ A- 39% 5% 56% F B D- A+ A+ C A+ F A
0.62 20% 20% 22% -28 +2 0.51 20% 0.5 .10 17% .30 71% .21 0.85 64% 67% 19% -9 +2 0.88 34% 0.1 .04 16% .15 78% .12
Jan
30		 Georgia Southern F C+ D- D+ D+ 43% 18% 39% C- D+ F+ D+ D- D+ A A- A+ C- D+ F A+ C 35% 23% 42% A C+ C+ F D B+ F D- F
1.03 62% 33% 32% -1 +1 1.02 29% 1.0 .29 20% .46 81% .37 1.07 59% 55% 20% -5 -1 0.92 26% 1.3 .35 19% .57 76% .43
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
1		 Coastal Carolina B D- A+ B A- 30% 21% 48% B A- C+ D- C- B D B- D+ F F F+ F F 29% 22% 49% D F F D- F C- A B+ A
1.18 47% 67% 37% +5 -1 1.11 30% 0.9 .27 10% .25 73% .18 1.24 67% 45% 48% +15 -1 1.29 37% 1.1 .40 15% .16 67% .11
Feb
4		 Old Dominion B- B+ A+ F C+ 40% 27% 33% D C A+ F D- D- A+ B A+ C D+ A- A+ B 38% 20% 42% D- B- F+ D F+ D F A F
1.16 68% 54% 19% +1 -1 1.02 47% 0.4 .21 18% .60 78% .46 1.08 62% 27% 26% -6 0 0.91 31% 1.2 .36 14% .46 66% .30
Feb
7		 Ball St. F B D- F F 29% 31% 40% F+ F D- A+ C+ B- A+ B A+ D B+ F C- D- 45% 24% 31% C D F F F B+ D+ F D-
0.98 67% 31% 12% -13 -2 0.71 28% 1.3 .38 17% .63 83% .52 1.05 45% 50% 33% -3 0 0.96 37% 1.1 .42 20% .33 78% .25
Feb
11		 Arkansas St. D- F D B- D- 29% 23% 48% D+ D- D+ D+ D+ C- A F B- F D- F F F 47% 5% 48% F F F D F F A- A+ A+
0.95 40% 33% 36% -5 -1 0.90 23% 1.0 .23 16% .42 62% .26 1.39 67% 67% 39% +9 +3 1.26 51% 1.1 .56 15% .25 50% .13



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 64.7 28.6 6.1 0.6 0.0 100.0 14th
Total 64.7 28.6 6.1 0.6 0.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.6% 0.6
3-15 6.1% 6.1
2-16 28.6% 28.6
1-17 64.7% 64.7
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 64.7%