Louisiana Monroe
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -15.8 #361
Expected Predictive Rating -24.8 #364
Pace 74.8 #46
Improvement -0.3 #201

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #343 D- F C D+ C-
Defense #359 F F D+ A- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #242 1.00 #341 -4.2 #317
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #144 0.68 #290 -0.1 #182
Three Pointers 41% #174 0.99 #216 -0.3 #190
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #311 -4.7 #309
Freethrows 16.0 #256 71% #229 11.4 #258
Second Chance 21.6% #356 1.08 #124 0.23 #336
Turnovers 16.9% #211
Total Offense -7.4 #343

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #199 1.33 #349 -3.2 #286
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #331 0.83 #292 +1.5 #80
Three Pointers 47% #43 1.17 #347 -6.6 #357
1st FG Attempt 1.18 #360 -8.2 #360
Freethrows 13.9 #32 68% #31 9.5 #21
Second Chance 34.9% #323 1.22 #347 0.42 #351
Turnovers 15.0% #270
Total Defense -8.4 #359

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.7% #240 1.4% #298
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -8.5% #316 14.6% #358
Possession Length 17.0 #134 15.9 #17
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #337 0.23 #340
Improvement -0.2 #191 +0.0 #190

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 99.8% 99.2% 99.9%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Appalachian St. (Away) - 6.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 30 - 70 - 13
Quad 42 - 142 - 27


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 318 @Northern Illinois L 82 - 102 19% -10  0 - 1 -27 +2 C+ D C -28 F F B-
 Fri, Nov 7 62 @Mississippi L 65 - 86 1% -17  0 - 2 -9 -5 C- F D -3 D- D- A+
 Thu, Nov 13 298 @Houston Christian L 61 - 72 15% +3  0 - 3 -16 -17 F F F +1 C B+ D-
 Mon, Nov 17 211 Lamar L 66 - 79 18% -9  0 - 4 -19 -9 F D+ C- -10 D C+ F
 Sat, Nov 22 302 Morehead St. L 80 - 83 23% -0  0 - 5 -11 +0 D- F C+ -12 F F D
 Sun, Nov 23 135 @East Tennessee St. L 55 - 97 4% -20  0 - 6 -37 -15 F C- C+ -23 F F D+
 Wed, Dec 3 365 Mississippi Valley W 66 - 52 86% +10  1 - 6 -13 -11 F F D- -1 A+ C D-
 Sun, Dec 7 105 @Stephen F. Austin L 76 - 96 3% -11  1 - 7 -13 +6 F A+ A -18 F B+ D-
 Sat, Dec 13 40 @Miami (FL) L 79 - 104 1% -12  1 - 8 -10 +13 A- C A+ -23 F F F
 Wed, Dec 17 191 South Alabama L 92 - 96 2OT 16% +7  1 - 9 0 - 1 -9 -0 B A+ F -8 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 312 Louisiana L 62 - 76 36% -12  1 - 10 0 - 2 -26 -8 F C F -20 F A- F
 Sun, Dec 28 85 @Kansas St. L 85 - 94 2% -6  1 - 11 +1 +7 A+ F D+ -4 D+ A C
 Thu, Jan 1 244 Southern Miss L 73 - 87 22% -11  1 - 12 0 - 3 -22 -8 F D C+ -12 F C A+
 Sat, Jan 3 263 Texas St. L 79 - 84 25% -3  1 - 13 0 - 4 -14 +0 A+ F D+ -14 F F C
 Thu, Jan 8 312 @Louisiana L 79 - 85 18% -3  1 - 14 0 - 5 -12 +4 B F C -16 F F A
 Sat, Jan 10 244 @Southern Miss L 60 - 70 10% +0  1 - 15 0 - 6 -12 -10 F F F -2 B+ D F
 Sat, Jan 17 273 Georgia St. L 57 - 77 26% -9  1 - 16 0 - 7 -29 -14 F F C -16 F B- F
 Thu, Jan 22 163 @Marshall L 60 - 115 5% -28  1 - 17 0 - 8 -52 -16 F D+ C -34 F F C-
 Fri, Jan 23 206 @Appalachian St. L 63 - 79 6%
 Thu, Jan 29 251 Georgia Southern L 79 - 87 22%
 Sat, Jan 31 252 Coastal Carolina L 72 - 80 23%
 Wed, Feb 4 240 @Old Dominion L 71 - 85 9%
 Sat, Feb 7 296 Ball St. L 71 - 76 31%
 Wed, Feb 11 145 @Arkansas St. L 74 - 94 3%
 Sat, Feb 14 263 @Texas St. L 68 - 81 11%
 Wed, Feb 18 112 Troy L 69 - 85 6%
 Sat, Feb 21 145 Arkansas St. L 77 - 91 10%
 Wed, Feb 25 191 @South Alabama L 65 - 82 6%
 Fri, Feb 27 112 @Troy L 66 - 88 2%
Totals 2 - 27 1 - 17 -16 -7 D- F C -8 F F D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 13th
14th 37.2 36.9 18.2 5.8 1.0 0.1 99.1 14th
Total 37.2 36.9 18.2 6.0 1.4 0.3 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13 0.3% 0.3
4-14 1.4% 1.4
3-15 6.0% 6.0
2-16 18.2% 18.2
1-17 36.9% 36.9
0-18 37.2% 37.2
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 26.7%