Stephen F. Austin
Southland
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.1#270
Expected Predictive Rating-8.1#299
Pace66.1#235
Improvement-1.6#261

Offense
Total Offense-8.3#353
First Shot-10.4#361
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#56
Layup/Dunks+0.5#159
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#250
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.3#347
Freethrows-3.4#349
Improvement+2.5#55

Defense
Total Defense+2.1#113
First Shot+4.9#47
After Offensive Rebounds-2.8#346
Layups/Dunks+0.3#159
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#36
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#75
Freethrows+0.2#173
Improvement-4.1#349
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 16.0
.500 or above 1.2% 2.6% 0.2%
.500 or above in Conference 1.5% 3.5% 0.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 4.4% 1.2% 6.8%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: TX A&M Corpus Christi (Home) - 42.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 41 - 9
Quad 49 - 910 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2024 73   @ Drake L 51-66 7%     0 - 1 -4.9 -9.4 +2.2
  Nov 16, 2024 93   @ Arkansas St. L 49-59 9%     0 - 2 -1.6 -15.5 +13.2
  Nov 21, 2024 283   Presbyterian L 55-58 OT 62%     0 - 3 -12.2 -28.2 +16.2
  Nov 22, 2024 253   Monmouth W 72-67 57%     1 - 3 -2.8 -2.5 -0.2
  Nov 23, 2024 219   Youngstown St. W 64-57 48%     2 - 3 +1.3 -5.8 +7.5
  Nov 29, 2024 328   @ Louisiana Monroe W 68-60 57%     3 - 3 +0.0 +1.7 -0.6
  Dec 05, 2024 264   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 65-68 39%     3 - 4 0 - 1 -6.3 -10.6 +4.3
  Dec 07, 2024 186   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 48-67 24%     3 - 5 0 - 2 -17.8 -19.1 -0.6
  Dec 15, 2024 45   @ Oregon L 61-79 4%     3 - 6 -3.9 -5.8 +2.1
  Dec 31, 2024 242   @ Abilene Christian W 62-57 36%     4 - 6 +2.7 -12.3 +14.6
  Jan 04, 2025 291   Incarnate Word L 49-55 63%     4 - 7 0 - 3 -15.6 -23.6 +7.1
  Jan 06, 2025 290   Houston Christian L 73-83 63%     4 - 8 0 - 4 -19.6 -7.4 -11.9
  Jan 11, 2025 218   @ Lamar W 72-63 30%     5 - 8 1 - 4 +8.3 +5.9 +3.0
  Jan 13, 2025 228   SE Louisiana L 59-66 50%     5 - 9 1 - 5 -13.2 -10.3 -3.5
  Jan 18, 2025 197   @ Nicholls St. L 61-73 25%     5 - 10 1 - 6 -11.2 -9.7 -1.9
  Jan 20, 2025 87   @ McNeese St. L 59-79 9%     5 - 11 1 - 7 -11.0 -3.9 -8.9
  Jan 25, 2025 293   Northwestern St. L 54-57 OT 63%     5 - 12 1 - 8 -12.6 -25.3 +12.9
  Jan 27, 2025 343   Texas A&M - Commerce W 79-72 78%     6 - 12 2 - 8 -7.3 +8.0 -14.6
  Feb 01, 2025 218   Lamar L 62-67 48%     6 - 13 2 - 9 -10.7 -9.9 -1.0
  Feb 03, 2025 351   @ New Orleans W 88-85 OT 66%     7 - 13 3 - 9 -7.4 +3.4 -11.0
  Feb 08, 2025 186   TX A&M Corpus Christi L 66-68 43%    
  Feb 10, 2025 264   UT Rio Grande Valley W 70-68 59%    
  Feb 15, 2025 293   @ Northwestern St. L 61-62 43%    
  Feb 17, 2025 343   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 65-62 59%    
  Feb 22, 2025 291   @ Incarnate Word L 66-68 42%    
  Feb 24, 2025 290   @ Houston Christian L 64-66 42%    
  Mar 01, 2025 197   Nicholls St. L 66-68 44%    
  Mar 03, 2025 87   @ McNeese St. L 57-72 8%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.1 0.1 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.0 1.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 2.6 0.5 4.1 7th
8th 0.1 1.6 5.8 2.4 0.2 10.0 8th
9th 0.4 4.1 11.9 7.1 0.5 23.9 9th
10th 0.2 3.9 15.0 21.1 10.5 1.4 52.1 10th
11th 1.0 3.4 2.6 0.5 0.0 7.5 11th
12th 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 12th
Total 1.8 7.7 18.0 25.8 24.0 15.2 6.0 1.4 0.1 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.1% 0.0 0.1
10-10 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 1.4
9-11 6.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 5.9
8-12 15.2% 15.2
7-13 24.0% 24.0
6-14 25.8% 25.8
5-15 18.0% 18.0
4-16 7.7% 7.7
3-17 1.8% 1.8
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.8%