Stephen F. Austin
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +4.5 #105
Expected Predictive Rating +6.3 #86
Pace 65.8 #271
Improvement +0.1 #180

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #162 C- C A- F D
Defense #64 B B- C- C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #300 1.05 #300 -4.2 #320
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #78 0.80 #117 +2.6 #59
Three Pointers 40% #207 1.03 #167 -0.4 #191
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #238 -2.0 #238
Freethrows 13.4 #341 67% #327 9.0 #354
Second Chance 34.6% #68 0.96 #290 0.33 #150
Turnovers 13.7% #34
Total Offense +0.1 #162

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #82 1.05 #61 +0.1 #176
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #101 0.82 #281 -1.4 #294
Three Pointers 35% #326 0.90 #53 +5.0 #20
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #69 +3.6 #70
Freethrows 17.5 #195 72% #151 12.6 #187
Second Chance 29.5% #130 0.99 #107 0.29 #108
Turnovers 15.8% #219
Total Defense +4.4 #64

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.9% #302 0.0% #164
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.0% #209 -7.1% #60
Possession Length 18.1 #251 17.8 #257
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.08 #363 0.15 #111
Improvement -2.8 #324 +2.9 #38

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 35.4% 36.8% 32.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.6 12.5 12.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 66.1% 73.1% 52.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round35.4% 36.8% 32.6%
Second Round3.4% 3.8% 2.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lamar (Away) - 67.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 36 - 36 - 5
Quad 418 - 124 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 145 Arkansas St. W 90 - 65 74% +16  1 - 0 +23 +11 C A+ F +11 A+ A+ C
 Tue, Nov 11 239 @Rice W 81 - 69 71% +8  2 - 0 +11 +10 B- C B- +1 A- C F
 Fri, Nov 14 258 Abilene Christian W 76 - 66 88% +1  3 - 0 +2 +4 C- D A+ -2 B+ B+ F
 Tue, Nov 18 143 @Fresno St. L 78 - 80 52% +1  3 - 1 +2 +13 C+ A+ B- -11 F D- C
 Fri, Nov 21 279 @Pepperdine W 63 - 60 78% -3  4 - 1 -1 -6 F A+ B- +6 B- C A+
 Sat, Nov 29 156 @Texas Arlington L 61 - 66 55% +3  4 - 2 -2 +1 D+ C B- -4 D+ B C
 Wed, Dec 3 218 UT Rio Grande Valley W 73 - 60 85% +8  5 - 2 1 - 0 +7 -0 F C- A+ +7 A+ A+ F
 Sun, Dec 7 361 Louisiana Monroe W 96 - 76 97% +11  6 - 2 +1 +10 A- F A+ -9 A+ F F
 Wed, Dec 17 186 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 69 - 60 81% +1  7 - 2 2 - 0 +4 +4 B- C A +1 C+ D B-
 Mon, Dec 29 308 @East Texas A&M W 75 - 48 82% +6  8 - 2 3 - 0 +22 +8 D C+ A +16 B A+ A-
 Wed, Dec 31 276 @Northwestern St. W 74 - 64 78% +7  9 - 2 4 - 0 +7 +2 D F A +5 A- A F
 Sat, Jan 3 272 @SE Louisiana W 73 - 63 77% +8  10 - 2 5 - 0 +7 +5 D- C+ B- +2 C+ F C+
 Mon, Jan 5 87 @McNeese St. L 64 - 66 30% +2  10 - 3 5 - 1 +8 +5 C- B D+ +3 C+ A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 10 298 Houston Christian W 85 - 67 92% +15  11 - 3 6 - 1 +7 +15 C B A+ -5 F C A+
 Mon, Jan 12 223 Incarnate Word W 56 - 46 85% +7  12 - 3 7 - 1 +3 -17 F C C+ +21 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 235 @New Orleans W 84 - 79 71% +1  13 - 3 8 - 1 +4 +9 A- F A+ -5 D- D C-
 Mon, Jan 19 232 @Nicholls St. W 79 - 62 70% +16  14 - 3 9 - 1 +16 +10 A- F B +7 A+ D- C-
 Sat, Jan 24 211 @Lamar W 68 - 63 67%
 Mon, Jan 26 276 Northwestern St. W 77 - 63 90%
 Sat, Jan 31 272 SE Louisiana W 73 - 59 90%
 Mon, Feb 2 87 McNeese St. W 70 - 69 52%
 Sat, Feb 7 211 Lamar W 71 - 60 84%
 Mon, Feb 9 308 East Texas A&M W 77 - 61 93%
 Sat, Feb 14 218 @UT Rio Grande Valley W 72 - 67 67%
 Mon, Feb 16 186 @TX A&M Corpus Christi W 67 - 64 62%
 Sat, Feb 21 232 Nicholls St. W 77 - 66 85%
 Mon, Feb 23 235 New Orleans W 82 - 70 86%
 Sat, Feb 28 298 @Houston Christian W 74 - 65 81%
 Mon, Mar 2 223 @Incarnate Word W 70 - 65 68%
Totals 23 - 6 18 - 4 +4 +0 C- C A- +4 B B- C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.1 5.2 14.5 21.9 17.2 6.1 66.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.8 7.3 10.5 8.5 2.2 31.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 3.5 8.8 15.8 23.0 24.2 17.2 6.1 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1 100.0% 6.1    6.1
20-2 100.0% 17.2    16.2 0.9
19-3 90.8% 21.9    16.0 5.9
18-4 63.1% 14.5    8.0 6.5 0.0
17-5 33.1% 5.2    2.2 2.9 0.1
16-6 12.2% 1.1    0.3 0.6 0.2
15-7 3.4% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 66.1% 66.1 48.8 17.0 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1 6.1% 47.6% 47.6% 11.6 0.0 1.2 1.7 0.0 3.2
20-2 17.2% 42.8% 42.8% 12.2 0.5 4.8 1.9 0.1 9.8
19-3 24.2% 38.6% 38.6% 12.6 0.1 4.2 4.3 0.7 0.0 14.8
18-4 23.0% 35.1% 35.1% 12.8 0.0 2.4 4.6 1.0 0.0 14.9
17-5 15.8% 28.9% 28.9% 13.1 0.0 0.8 2.5 1.2 0.1 11.2
16-6 8.8% 26.0% 26.0% 13.4 0.2 1.2 0.8 0.1 6.5
15-7 3.5% 20.8% 20.8% 13.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 2.8
14-8 1.2% 13.7% 13.7% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.0
13-9 0.3% 7.1% 7.1% 14.0 0.0 0.3
12-10 0.1% 0.1
11-11 0.0% 0.0
10-12
9-13
8-14
7-15
6-16
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 35.4% 35.4% 0.0% 12.6 64.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.9% 100.0% 11.6 0.3 40.8 57.5 1.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.2%