Stephen F. Austin
Southland
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.6#216
Expected Predictive Rating-5.2#255
Pace64.7#290
Improvement-0.5#211

Offense
Total Offense-6.6#344
First Shot-8.6#355
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#71
Layup/Dunks+1.2#137
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#265
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.1#327
Freethrows-3.3#344
Improvement-0.3#201

Defense
Total Defense+4.1#75
First Shot+5.5#38
After Offensive Rebounds-1.5#295
Layups/Dunks+0.5#153
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#16
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#111
Freethrows+0.9#127
Improvement-0.1#192
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.7% 7.3% 4.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.4 14.8
.500 or above 55.4% 70.7% 46.3%
.500 or above in Conference 69.5% 75.8% 65.7%
Conference Champion 2.2% 3.1% 1.7%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.6% 1.5%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.4%
First Round5.6% 7.2% 4.6%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Abilene Christian (Away) - 37.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 32 - 42 - 9
Quad 413 - 615 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2024 66   @ Drake L 51-66 10%     0 - 1 -3.5 -7.3 +1.7
  Nov 16, 2024 109   @ Arkansas St. L 49-59 19%     0 - 2 -3.2 -15.2 +11.3
  Nov 21, 2024 249   Presbyterian L 55-58 OT 70%     0 - 3 -10.9 -26.5 +15.8
  Nov 22, 2024 273   Monmouth W 72-67 73%     1 - 3 -4.0 -2.9 -0.9
  Nov 23, 2024 195   Youngstown St. W 64-57 58%     2 - 3 +2.5 -4.6 +7.4
  Nov 29, 2024 329   @ Louisiana Monroe W 68-60 66%     3 - 3 +1.1 +2.5 -0.4
  Dec 05, 2024 227   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 65-68 42%     3 - 4 0 - 1 -3.5 -9.6 +6.2
  Dec 07, 2024 186   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 48-67 34%     3 - 5 0 - 2 -17.3 -18.9 -0.3
  Dec 15, 2024 23   @ Oregon L 61-79 4%     3 - 6 -1.0 -4.4 +3.6
  Dec 31, 2024 205   @ Abilene Christian L 63-66 37%    
  Jan 04, 2025 304   Incarnate Word W 70-62 78%    
  Jan 06, 2025 347   Houston Christian W 71-58 88%    
  Jan 11, 2025 171   @ Lamar L 60-65 33%    
  Jan 13, 2025 230   SE Louisiana W 64-60 65%    
  Jan 18, 2025 242   @ Nicholls St. L 64-65 46%    
  Jan 20, 2025 92   @ McNeese St. L 57-69 14%    
  Jan 25, 2025 293   Northwestern St. W 65-58 75%    
  Jan 27, 2025 353   Texas A&M - Commerce W 69-56 88%    
  Feb 01, 2025 171   Lamar W 63-62 54%    
  Feb 03, 2025 345   @ New Orleans W 70-64 72%    
  Feb 08, 2025 186   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 67-65 56%    
  Feb 10, 2025 227   UT Rio Grande Valley W 71-67 63%    
  Feb 15, 2025 293   @ Northwestern St. W 62-61 55%    
  Feb 17, 2025 353   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 66-59 74%    
  Feb 22, 2025 304   @ Incarnate Word W 67-65 58%    
  Feb 24, 2025 347   @ Houston Christian W 68-61 72%    
  Mar 01, 2025 242   Nicholls St. W 67-62 67%    
  Mar 03, 2025 92   @ McNeese St. L 57-69 15%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.0 2.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.5 2.6 0.8 0.1 9.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.4 5.4 3.3 0.6 0.0 13.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.8 6.6 3.5 0.6 0.0 15.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.4 6.5 3.7 0.5 0.0 0.0 14.5 5th
6th 0.2 2.6 6.3 3.7 0.6 0.0 13.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.8 5.1 3.6 0.6 0.0 11.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.7 3.1 0.7 0.0 9.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.6 2.2 0.5 0.0 6.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.9 5.3 8.2 11.8 14.5 15.2 14.7 11.2 7.7 3.9 1.7 0.4 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 80.4% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
16-4 50.2% 0.8    0.4 0.4 0.1
15-5 17.5% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
14-6 3.5% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.2% 2.2 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.4% 35.2% 35.2% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3
16-4 1.7% 29.9% 29.9% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 1.2
15-5 3.9% 22.3% 22.3% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 3.1
14-6 7.7% 16.0% 16.0% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 6.5
13-7 11.2% 9.7% 9.7% 14.8 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 10.1
12-8 14.7% 6.1% 6.1% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 13.8
11-9 15.2% 3.1% 3.1% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 14.8
10-10 14.5% 2.2% 2.2% 15.6 0.1 0.2 14.2
9-11 11.8% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 11.6
8-12 8.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 8.2
7-13 5.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.3
6-14 2.9% 2.9
5-15 1.5% 1.5
4-16 0.6% 0.6
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 5.7% 5.7% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.3 1.0 94.3 0.0%