Southland
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Results Rating Conf Results Rating
83 McNeese St. 48.5%   12   24 - 5 19 - 3 +6.9      +2.8 101 +4.1 68 66.1 246 +9.3 65 +7.2 2
100 Stephen F. Austin 37.2%   25 - 4 20 - 2 +4.7      +1.9 117 +2.8 94 65.5 260 +7.8 76 +10.4 1
144 UT Rio Grande Valley 7.9%   16 - 13 14 - 8 +1.0      +0.3 154 +0.7 146 66.9 224 -0.6 167 0.0 3
187 TX A&M Corpus Christi 4.3%   13 - 14 13 - 9 -1.8      -3.4 261 +1.6 129 66.9 222 -1.8 191 -1.0 4
197 New Orleans 1.3%   14 - 17 12 - 10 -2.1      0.0 164 -2.2 239 73.4 53 -1.6 188 -2.1 6
246 Lamar 0.0%   10 - 19 7 - 15 -4.7      -4.5 290 -0.2 176 64.3 291 -7.1 280 -8.0 10
249 Nicholls St. 0.7%   12 - 18 12 - 10 -4.9      -2.7 243 -2.2 241 70.4 123 -3.7 233 -1.9 5
265 Incarnate Word 0.0%   9 - 19 7 - 15 -5.8      -0.5 178 -5.3 318 63.7 309 -7.3 283 -7.8 9
278 Northwestern St. 0.1%   8 - 21 8 - 14 -6.4      -4.4 287 -2.0 234 63.6 312 -8.2 298 -6.5 8
289 SE Louisiana 0.0%   8 - 22 6 - 16 -7.2      -6.6 335 -0.6 195 64.9 276 -8.4 301 -9.0 12
290 Houston Christian 0.1%   10 - 19 8 - 14 -7.3      -3.9 274 -3.4 275 61.8 341 -7.0 275 -6.4 7
307 East Texas A&M 0.0%   9 - 21 6 - 16 -8.7      -6.4 331 -2.2 243 70.3 129 -7.4 289 -8.8 11


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Feb 28 83 McNeese St. 66 197 New Orleans 63   
Sat, Feb 28 249 Nicholls St. 68 289 SE Louisiana 60   
Sat, Feb 28 307 East Texas A&M 55 144 UT Rio Grande Valley 63   
Sat, Feb 28 187 TX A&M Corpus Christi 71 278 Northwestern St. 59   
Sat, Feb 28 246 Lamar 60 265 Incarnate Word 72   
Sat, Feb 28 290 Houston Christian 56 100 Stephen F. Austin 77   
Mon, Mar 2 100 Stephen F. Austin 76 265 Incarnate Word 68   
Mon, Mar 2 197 New Orleans 78 289 SE Louisiana 82   
Mon, Mar 2 83 McNeese St. 75 249 Nicholls St. 65   
Mon, Mar 2 187 TX A&M Corpus Christi 84 307 East Texas A&M 71   
Mon, Mar 2 278 Northwestern St. 62 144 UT Rio Grande Valley 74   
Mon, Mar 2 290 Houston Christian 75 246 Lamar 53   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sun, Mar 8 249 Nicholls St. 72 278 Northwestern St. 70 56%   
Sun, Mar 8 290 Houston Christian 71 197 New Orleans 76 69%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Stephen F. Austin 1.0 100.0
McNeese St. 2.0 100.0
UT Rio Grande Valley 3.0 100.0
TX A&M Corpus Christi 4.0 100.0
New Orleans 5.0 100.0
Nicholls St. 5.0 100.0
Houston Christian 7.0 100.0
Northwestern St. 7.0 100.0
Lamar 9.0 100.0
Incarnate Word 9.0 100.0
SE Louisiana 11.0 100.0
East Texas A&M 11.0 100.0

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0
Stephen F. Austin 20 - 2 25 - 4 100.0
McNeese St. 19 - 3 24 - 5 100.0
UT Rio Grande Valley 14 - 8 16 - 13 100.0
TX A&M Corpus Christi 13 - 9 13 - 14 100.0
New Orleans 12 - 10 15 - 17 100.0
Nicholls St. 12 - 10 13 - 18 100.0
Houston Christian 8 - 14 10 - 20 100.0
Northwestern St. 8 - 14 8 - 22 100.0
Lamar 7 - 15 10 - 19 100.0
Incarnate Word 7 - 15 9 - 19 100.0
SE Louisiana 6 - 16 8 - 22 100.0
East Texas A&M 6 - 16 9 - 21 100.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Stephen F. Austin 100.0% 100.0
McNeese St.
UT Rio Grande Valley
TX A&M Corpus Christi
New Orleans
Nicholls St.
Houston Christian
Northwestern St.
Lamar
Incarnate Word
SE Louisiana
East Texas A&M


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
McNeese St. 48.5% 48.4% 0.1% 12   0.0 8.4 36.8 3.2 0.0 51.5 0.3%
Stephen F. Austin 37.2% 37.2% 0.0% 1.3 21.6 13.5 0.8 62.8 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 7.9% 7.9% 0.0% 0.5 4.2 2.9 0.2 92.1 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 3.5 0.2 95.7 0.0%
New Orleans 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.1 1.1 0.1 98.7 0.0%
Lamar 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Nicholls St. 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.7 99.3 0.0%
Incarnate Word 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Northwestern St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
SE Louisiana 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Houston Christian 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
East Texas A&M 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 99.6% 1.0 0.4 99.6 0.0
2nd Round 11.1% 0.1 88.9 11.1
Sweet Sixteen 1.4% 0.0 98.6 1.4
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
McNeese St. 48.5% 0.1% 48.4% 7.1% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin 37.2% 0.0% 37.2% 3.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 7.9% 0.0% 7.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 4.3% 0.0% 4.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Orleans 1.3% 0.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lamar 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nicholls St. 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Incarnate Word 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SE Louisiana 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Houston Christian 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Texas A&M 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%