Southland
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
104 McNeese St. 40.9%   13   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 9 17 - 5 +4.1      +1.2 126 +2.9 92 64.4 296 0.0 121 0.0 1
215 Stephen F. Austin 8.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 12 - 10 -2.8      -4.0 295 +1.2 124 68.1 198 0.0 121 0.0 1
218 Lamar 8.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 12 - 10 -3.0      -3.5 279 +0.6 146 64.1 301 0.0 121 0.0 1
224 TX A&M Corpus Christi 7.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 15 11 - 11 -3.6      -3.2 264 -0.4 179 68.4 189 0.0 121 0.0 1
232 Nicholls St. 6.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 17 11 - 11 -4.0      -3.5 276 -0.5 181 69.9 135 0.0 121 0.0 1
233 Incarnate Word 6.5%   0 - 1 0 - 0 13 - 14 11 - 11 -4.0      +0.1 162 -4.1 311 62.8 323 -2.5 297 0.0 1
252 Northwestern St. 5.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 17 10 - 12 -4.9      -3.1 263 -1.8 226 61.5 344 0.0 121 0.0 1
257 UT Rio Grande Valley 4.3%   0 - 1 0 - 0 12 - 17 10 - 12 -5.1      -2.1 231 -3.0 278 74.6 43 +4.1 80 0.0 1
259 SE Louisiana 4.2%   0 - 1 0 - 0 12 - 18 10 - 12 -5.2      -2.9 250 -2.3 253 67.5 219 +3.6 82 0.0 1
268 New Orleans 3.7%   1 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 19 10 - 12 -5.6      -2.2 232 -3.4 294 72.2 80 +22.1 3 0.0 1
285 Houston Christian 2.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 17 9 - 13 -6.7      -3.6 282 -3.0 283 62.8 322 0.0 121 0.0 1
332 East Texas A&M 0.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 21 7 - 15 -9.9      -6.5 345 -3.4 292 67.1 225 0.0 121 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
McNeese St. 2.2 55.2 17.9 9.6 6.0 4.1 2.6 1.7 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1
Stephen F. Austin 5.3 10.2 13.5 12.4 10.9 10.0 9.0 7.9 7.2 6.6 5.4 4.4 2.7
Lamar 5.3 10.2 13.1 12.1 11.0 10.0 8.8 8.0 7.1 6.4 5.7 4.6 3.1
TX A&M Corpus Christi 5.7 8.0 11.3 11.5 10.3 9.7 9.4 8.3 8.2 7.3 6.5 5.7 3.9
Nicholls St. 6.0 6.9 10.2 10.3 9.9 10.1 10.1 8.9 8.7 7.5 6.9 6.3 4.3
Incarnate Word 6.0 6.7 9.4 10.4 10.5 10.1 9.9 9.0 8.6 8.1 6.9 6.2 4.2
Northwestern St. 6.5 5.0 7.8 8.9 9.0 9.5 9.7 9.3 9.2 9.0 8.6 8.0 6.0
UT Rio Grande Valley 6.7 4.4 7.0 8.7 9.3 9.2 9.7 9.5 9.6 9.8 8.7 8.0 6.1
SE Louisiana 6.7 4.1 7.2 8.5 9.1 9.4 9.7 10.0 9.6 9.4 9.1 8.0 6.0
New Orleans 6.9 3.7 6.7 7.4 8.7 9.2 9.3 9.8 10.5 9.7 9.6 8.8 6.6
Houston Christian 7.6 2.6 5.0 5.9 6.9 8.0 8.8 8.9 9.7 10.4 10.7 11.8 11.2
East Texas A&M 9.3 0.7 1.5 2.4 3.2 4.4 5.3 6.3 8.0 10.0 12.9 17.7 27.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0
McNeese St. 17 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.6 2.6 3.8 5.1 6.5 8.4 10.2 11.7 12.3 12.3 11.3 7.9 3.8
Stephen F. Austin 12 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.3 2.2 3.3 4.6 6.1 7.2 8.6 8.6 9.6 9.5 9.3 8.3 6.9 5.0 4.0 2.5 1.2 0.5 0.1
Lamar 12 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.6 2.5 3.6 4.7 6.0 6.9 8.4 9.0 9.6 9.6 9.0 7.9 6.6 5.5 3.6 2.4 1.4 0.5 0.1
TX A&M Corpus Christi 11 - 11 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.9 3.0 4.2 5.7 6.7 8.3 8.6 9.4 9.4 9.0 8.1 7.2 5.9 4.5 3.1 1.9 0.8 0.4 0.1
Nicholls St. 11 - 11 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.1 3.4 4.7 5.9 7.2 8.6 9.2 9.8 9.7 8.7 8.1 6.3 5.2 4.0 2.4 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.0
Incarnate Word 11 - 11 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.0 3.2 4.5 6.4 7.4 8.6 9.4 9.8 10.0 8.7 7.8 6.8 5.1 3.6 2.4 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1
Northwestern St. 10 - 12 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 2.9 4.3 5.8 7.2 8.2 9.0 9.9 9.7 8.8 8.0 7.0 5.7 4.1 2.8 1.6 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0
UT Rio Grande Valley 10 - 12 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.7 3.0 4.6 6.1 7.2 8.8 9.6 10.1 9.6 9.0 8.0 6.7 5.1 3.8 2.5 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0
SE Louisiana 10 - 12 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.7 2.9 4.5 6.0 7.5 9.0 9.5 10.0 10.0 9.1 7.9 6.5 5.3 3.7 2.5 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
New Orleans 10 - 12 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.2 4.7 6.8 7.9 9.5 10.0 10.0 9.5 8.7 7.5 6.1 4.8 3.5 2.2 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Houston Christian 9 - 13 0.2 1.0 2.0 3.5 5.2 6.6 7.8 9.1 9.5 9.3 9.6 8.6 7.6 6.2 4.8 3.5 2.5 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
East Texas A&M 7 - 15 1.3 3.3 5.8 8.1 9.7 11.1 10.7 10.2 9.2 7.9 6.5 5.1 4.0 2.8 1.9 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
McNeese St. 55.2% 45.6 8.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Stephen F. Austin 10.2% 6.7 2.8 0.6 0.1
Lamar 10.2% 6.7 2.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
TX A&M Corpus Christi 8.0% 5.1 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
Nicholls St. 6.9% 4.4 1.9 0.4 0.1
Incarnate Word 6.7% 4.3 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
Northwestern St. 5.0% 3.0 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
UT Rio Grande Valley 4.4% 2.6 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
SE Louisiana 4.1% 2.5 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
New Orleans 3.7% 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.1
Houston Christian 2.6% 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
East Texas A&M 0.7% 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
McNeese St. 40.9% 40.8% 0.1% 13   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 5.7 12.2 11.2 7.2 2.9 0.7 59.1 0.2%
Stephen F. Austin 8.9% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.1 2.7 2.0 1.1 91.1 0.0%
Lamar 8.9% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.1 2.8 2.1 0.9 91.1 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 7.6% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 2.3 2.0 1.0 92.4 0.0%
Nicholls St. 6.5% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.8 1.8 1.1 93.5 0.0%
Incarnate Word 6.5% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 2.0 1.7 1.2 93.5 0.0%
Northwestern St. 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.6 0.9 95.0 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.3 1.2 0.7 95.7 0.0%
SE Louisiana 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.2 1.2 0.8 95.8 0.0%
New Orleans 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.4 96.3 0.0%
Houston Christian 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.6 97.3 0.0%
East Texas A&M 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 99.2 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
McNeese St. 40.9% 0.3% 41.0% 6.1% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin 8.9% 0.4% 9.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lamar 8.9% 0.4% 9.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 7.6% 0.4% 7.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nicholls St. 6.5% 0.5% 6.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Incarnate Word 6.5% 0.5% 6.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern St. 5.0% 0.4% 5.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 4.3% 0.4% 4.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SE Louisiana 4.2% 0.4% 4.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Orleans 3.7% 0.3% 3.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Houston Christian 2.7% 0.3% 2.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Texas A&M 0.8% 0.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 98.5% 1.0 1.5 96.4 2.1
2nd Round 9.1% 0.1 91.0 9.0 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 1.8% 0.0 98.2 1.8 0.0
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0