Southland
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
92 McNeese St. 55.5%   13   3 - 5 0 - 0 21 - 8 17 - 3 +6.1      +3.1 93 +3.0 95 64.7 289 +2.4 130 0.0 4
171 Lamar 13.8%   4 - 5 2 - 0 16 - 12 14 - 6 -0.8      -2.0 232 +1.2 133 66.4 252 -2.3 205 +15.9 1
186 TX A&M Corpus Christi 9.7%   4 - 5 1 - 1 15 - 13 12 - 8 -1.3      -0.8 193 -0.5 183 70.8 128 -4.8 245 -4.7 5
216 Stephen F. Austin 5.7%   3 - 6 0 - 2 14 - 14 11 - 9 -2.6      -6.6 344 +4.1 75 64.7 290 -5.2 255 -14.7 9
227 UT Rio Grande Valley 4.8%   5 - 4 1 - 1 15 - 12 11 - 9 -3.5      -0.8 191 -2.7 257 76.5 27 +0.2 165 -4.7 5
230 SE Louisiana 4.6%   4 - 6 0 - 1 15 - 14 11 - 9 -3.6      -4.8 303 +1.2 134 68.2 205 -3.6 231 -16.7 10
242 Nicholls St. 3.5%   4 - 5 2 - 0 13 - 15 11 - 9 -4.6      -3.0 253 -1.5 215 70.1 148 -2.0 201 +5.8 3
293 Northwestern St. 1.4%   3 - 6 2 - 0 11 - 17 10 - 10 -6.9      -4.2 291 -2.7 254 63.7 312 -4.4 241 +8.7 2
304 Incarnate Word 0.8%   4 - 5 1 - 1 11 - 16 8 - 12 -7.8      -1.0 197 -6.8 351 64.7 287 -9.0 313 -12.7 7
345 New Orleans 0.1%   2 - 8 0 - 1 8 - 23 6 - 14 -11.9      -6.0 337 -5.9 345 73.7 66 -8.6 306 -16.7 10
347 Houston Christian 0.1%   2 - 7 1 - 1 7 - 22 6 - 14 -12.1      -4.9 310 -7.2 353 65.1 278 -14.0 345 -12.7 7
353 Texas A&M - Commerce 0.0%   2 - 8 0 - 2 7 - 24 5 - 15 -12.6      -7.8 355 -4.8 321 67.2 224 -10.4 325 -22.5 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
McNeese St. 1.4 76.7 14.2 5.0 2.2 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Lamar 2.9 19.3 34.7 18.2 11.1 6.9 4.4 2.7 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
TX A&M Corpus Christi 4.2 6.8 19.1 20.3 15.9 12.4 9.5 6.8 4.7 2.8 1.2 0.5 0.1
Stephen F. Austin 5.4 2.2 9.2 13.2 15.1 14.5 13.4 11.4 9.2 6.6 3.2 1.5 0.5
UT Rio Grande Valley 5.4 2.7 9.3 13.3 14.2 14.0 13.3 11.8 9.4 6.5 3.6 1.4 0.4
SE Louisiana 5.3 3.0 10.3 14.1 14.5 13.9 12.8 10.9 8.8 6.4 3.2 1.5 0.6
Nicholls St. 5.5 3.0 9.5 12.2 13.3 13.6 13.3 12.4 10.2 7.2 3.4 1.3 0.4
Northwestern St. 6.3 1.3 5.4 8.1 10.5 12.4 13.9 14.2 13.9 10.7 6.0 2.6 0.8
Incarnate Word 7.5 0.3 2.5 4.5 6.5 8.3 10.6 13.2 15.5 16.7 11.9 6.9 3.0
New Orleans 9.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.9 3.2 5.2 8.7 13.5 21.5 22.4 21.9
Houston Christian 9.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.8 4.9 8.2 13.7 22.4 25.7 19.1
Texas A&M - Commerce 10.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.7 5.1 9.6 18.7 27.4 33.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
McNeese St. 17 - 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.8 3.6 6.4 10.2 15.0 18.7 20.0 15.8 7.2
Lamar 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.5 4.6 7.8 10.9 14.1 15.9 15.5 12.5 8.5 4.3 1.5 0.3
TX A&M Corpus Christi 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.1 4.1 6.7 10.0 13.3 15.1 15.5 13.0 9.6 5.7 2.5 0.8 0.1
Stephen F. Austin 11 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.9 5.3 8.2 11.8 14.5 15.2 14.7 11.2 7.7 3.9 1.7 0.4 0.0
UT Rio Grande Valley 11 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 3.2 5.6 8.6 11.9 14.3 14.8 13.7 10.9 7.6 4.4 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.0
SE Louisiana 11 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.9 5.3 8.1 11.3 13.6 14.5 13.7 11.4 8.4 5.1 2.3 0.9 0.2 0.0
Nicholls St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.4 6.0 9.3 12.4 14.1 14.6 13.1 10.2 7.0 4.2 2.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Northwestern St. 10 - 10 0.0 0.3 1.1 3.0 5.7 9.2 12.6 14.6 15.0 13.4 10.2 7.1 4.2 2.3 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Incarnate Word 8 - 12 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.9 7.2 10.4 13.3 14.6 14.2 12.2 9.1 6.3 3.6 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
New Orleans 6 - 14 0.6 2.8 6.4 11.0 14.8 15.8 15.2 12.4 9.1 5.8 3.4 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Houston Christian 6 - 14 1.7 6.2 11.4 16.0 17.1 15.7 12.6 8.6 5.4 2.8 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Texas A&M - Commerce 5 - 15 1.3 4.9 10.7 15.8 18.0 16.8 13.0 9.1 5.2 2.9 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
McNeese St. 76.7% 65.7 9.5 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Lamar 19.3% 11.6 6.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
TX A&M Corpus Christi 6.8% 3.5 2.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Stephen F. Austin 2.2% 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
UT Rio Grande Valley 2.7% 1.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
SE Louisiana 3.0% 1.3 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Nicholls St. 3.0% 1.5 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northwestern St. 1.3% 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Incarnate Word 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
New Orleans 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Houston Christian 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Texas A&M - Commerce


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
McNeese St. 55.5% 55.5% 0.0% 13   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 4.0 20.0 19.3 8.6 1.7 0.1 44.5 0.0%
Lamar 13.8% 13.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 2.0 4.6 5.0 1.9 86.2 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 9.7% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.2 3.6 1.3 90.3 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin 5.7% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.3 1.0 94.3 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 4.8% 4.8% 0.0% 0.1 0.5 1.6 2.0 0.6 95.2 0.0%
SE Louisiana 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.0 1.2 95.4 0.0%
Nicholls St. 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.5 0.9 96.5 0.0%
Northwestern St. 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 98.6 0.0%
Incarnate Word 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 99.2 0.0%
New Orleans 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Houston Christian 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Texas A&M - Commerce 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
McNeese St. 55.5% 0.0% 55.5% 11.1% 3.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Lamar 13.8% 0.5% 13.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 9.7% 0.3% 9.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin 5.7% 0.3% 5.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 4.8% 0.2% 4.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SE Louisiana 4.6% 0.4% 4.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nicholls St. 3.5% 0.3% 3.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern St. 1.4% 0.4% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Incarnate Word 0.8% 0.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Orleans 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Houston Christian 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas A&M - Commerce 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 98.7% 1.0 1.3 98.7 0.0
2nd Round 13.3% 0.1 86.7 13.3
Sweet Sixteen 3.3% 0.0 96.7 3.3
Elite Eight 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0