Southland
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
87 McNeese St. 51.7%   12   13 - 4 8 - 2 +6.9      +4.6 73 +2.3 107 66.0 265 +8.7 68 +3.7 2
105 Stephen F. Austin 35.4%   14 - 3 9 - 1 +4.5      +0.1 162 +4.4 64 65.8 271 +6.3 86 +10.3 1
186 TX A&M Corpus Christi 4.4%   6 - 9 6 - 4 -1.8      -4.8 301 +3.0 94 67.0 234 -1.7 200 -0.3 4
211 Lamar 2.0%   8 - 9 5 - 5 -3.2      -4.2 289 +1.0 134 64.2 306 -3.6 223 -3.7 5
218 UT Rio Grande Valley 1.5%   6 - 11 4 - 6 -3.4      -3.0 259 -0.4 181 69.2 169 -5.0 236 -6.0 8
223 Incarnate Word 1.3%   6 - 10 4 - 6 -3.7      -1.9 223 -1.8 232 64.2 305 -5.3 246 -6.1 9
232 Nicholls St. 2.0%   7 - 11 7 - 3 -4.0      -1.2 200 -2.8 263 70.3 145 -2.6 213 +2.2 3
235 New Orleans 1.2%   7 - 12 5 - 5 -4.2      +1.6 124 -5.7 334 72.2 92 -2.9 216 -4.6 6
272 SE Louisiana 0.1%   4 - 14 2 - 8 -6.2      -6.2 327 0.0 166 66.5 249 -9.9 325 -11.7 12
276 Northwestern St. 0.3%   4 - 13 4 - 6 -6.5      -1.0 190 -5.5 331 64.0 313 -8.0 298 -5.0 7
298 Houston Christian 0.1%   5 - 12 3 - 7 -7.8      -1.5 214 -6.3 340 62.6 337 -8.8 310 -8.2 11
308 East Texas A&M 0.0%   6 - 12 3 - 7 -8.4      -6.8 336 -1.5 221 71.6 105 -5.4 252 -6.9 10


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Mon, Jan 19 186 TX A&M Corpus Christi 53 87 McNeese St. 69   
Mon, Jan 19 272 SE Louisiana 65 218 UT Rio Grande Valley 68   
Mon, Jan 19 211 Lamar 76 235 New Orleans 89   
Mon, Jan 19 298 Houston Christian 82 276 Northwestern St. 80   
Mon, Jan 19 308 East Texas A&M 80 223 Incarnate Word 58   
Mon, Jan 19 232 Nicholls St. 62 105 Stephen F. Austin 79   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Jan 24 186 TX A&M Corpus Christi 66 223 Incarnate Word 67 54%   
Sat, Jan 24 211 Lamar 63 105 Stephen F. Austin 68 67%   
Sat, Jan 24 232 Nicholls St. 71 272 SE Louisiana 72 53%   
Sat, Jan 24 276 Northwestern St. 75 308 East Texas A&M 70 68%   
Sat, Jan 24 87 McNeese St. 86 235 New Orleans 72 90%   
Sat, Jan 24 298 Houston Christian 71 218 UT Rio Grande Valley 72 55%   
Mon, Jan 26 186 TX A&M Corpus Christi 71 218 UT Rio Grande Valley 66 67%   
Mon, Jan 26 235 New Orleans 80 232 Nicholls St. 83 62%   
Mon, Jan 26 298 Houston Christian 70 223 Incarnate Word 71 54%   
Mon, Jan 26 211 Lamar 72 308 East Texas A&M 64 78%   
Mon, Jan 26 276 Northwestern St. 63 105 Stephen F. Austin 77 90%   
Mon, Jan 26 87 McNeese St. 74 272 SE Louisiana 64 83%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
McNeese St. 1.5 50.3 47.2 2.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Stephen F. Austin 1.4 66.1 31.9 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
TX A&M Corpus Christi 3.9 0.6 4.8 45.3 23.9 12.1 6.7 3.5 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Lamar 5.5 0.1 0.9 13.5 19.9 21.2 15.9 11.8 8.2 4.8 2.4 1.1 0.2
UT Rio Grande Valley 6.7 0.2 6.2 11.2 15.4 16.5 16.1 13.2 10.0 6.4 3.6 1.3
Incarnate Word 6.8 0.2 6.7 10.9 14.2 15.7 15.3 13.7 10.8 7.0 4.1 1.5
Nicholls St. 4.2 0.6 4.1 37.9 26.6 13.9 8.0 4.8 2.5 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
New Orleans 6.4 0.0 0.4 7.1 12.4 17.0 17.5 15.8 13.1 8.8 4.8 2.4 0.7
SE Louisiana 10.0 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.3 5.4 8.5 12.7 18.3 22.1 26.8
Northwestern St. 7.9 0.0 1.9 5.0 8.4 11.5 14.8 16.4 16.2 12.6 8.6 4.5
Houston Christian 9.7 0.2 1.0 2.3 4.2 6.7 9.7 13.6 19.4 22.2 20.6
East Texas A&M 9.7 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.3 4.3 7.0 10.5 14.9 19.5 21.9 18.4

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0
McNeese St. 18 - 4 23 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 4.7 10.9 20.4 27.3 24.3 10.4
Stephen F. Austin 18 - 4 23 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 3.5 8.5 15.4 23.3 24.7 17.2 5.8
TX A&M Corpus Christi 13 - 9 13 - 14 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.7 6.8 12.8 18.4 20.6 18.1 12.3 5.6 1.4 0.2
Lamar 11 - 11 14 - 15 0.1 0.5 2.4 6.5 12.6 18.2 21.1 18.9 11.5 5.9 2.0 0.4 0.1
UT Rio Grande Valley 10 - 12 12 - 17 0.1 0.5 2.6 7.1 12.9 18.7 21.1 17.6 11.3 5.7 1.9 0.4 0.0
Incarnate Word 10 - 12 12 - 16 0.1 0.9 3.4 8.0 13.4 18.4 19.8 16.9 11.1 5.5 2.0 0.5 0.1
Nicholls St. 13 - 9 13 - 17 0.2 1.1 4.0 9.3 14.6 19.7 20.0 15.7 9.5 4.4 1.3 0.3 0.0
New Orleans 10 - 12 12 - 19 0.2 1.5 5.1 12.0 18.2 21.3 19.3 12.7 6.6 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.0
SE Louisiana 7 - 15 9 - 21 0.4 2.9 8.0 14.7 19.6 20.4 16.4 10.2 5.2 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
Northwestern St. 9 - 13 9 - 20 0.4 2.5 7.5 14.3 19.8 21.1 16.9 10.4 4.9 1.7 0.4 0.1
Houston Christian 7 - 15 9 - 20 1.2 5.7 13.2 19.4 21.6 17.6 11.9 5.9 2.6 0.7 0.1 0.0
East Texas A&M 7 - 15 10 - 20 1.0 4.7 11.8 19.1 22.3 19.0 12.3 6.3 2.6 0.8 0.1 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
McNeese St. 50.3% 33.3 16.7 0.3 0.0
Stephen F. Austin 66.1% 49.2 16.6 0.3 0.0
TX A&M Corpus Christi 0.6% 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0
Lamar 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
UT Rio Grande Valley
Incarnate Word
Nicholls St. 0.6% 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0
New Orleans 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
SE Louisiana
Northwestern St.
Houston Christian
East Texas A&M


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
McNeese St. 51.7% 51.7% 0.0% 12   0.0 0.0 0.3 10.0 33.2 7.8 0.4 48.3 0.1%
Stephen F. Austin 35.4% 35.4% 0.0% 0.0 1.9 13.9 14.9 4.5 0.2 64.6 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 0.1 0.8 1.4 1.6 0.5 95.6 0.0%
Lamar 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.3 98.0 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.5 98.5 0.0%
Incarnate Word 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.4 98.7 0.0%
Nicholls St. 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 98.0 0.0%
New Orleans 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.5 98.8 0.0%
SE Louisiana 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Northwestern St. 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%
Houston Christian 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%
East Texas A&M 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 99.3% 1.0 0.8 99.2 0.0
2nd Round 12.6% 0.1 87.4 12.6
Sweet Sixteen 2.1% 0.0 97.9 2.1
Elite Eight 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
McNeese St. 51.7% 0.0% 51.7% 8.9% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin 35.4% 0.0% 35.4% 3.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 4.4% 0.1% 4.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lamar 2.0% 0.1% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 1.5% 0.2% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Incarnate Word 1.3% 0.2% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nicholls St. 2.0% 0.6% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Orleans 1.2% 0.3% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SE Louisiana 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern St. 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Houston Christian 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Texas A&M 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%