Southland
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
69 McNeese St. 72.7%   12   23 - 6 19 - 1 24 - 6 19 - 1 +8.0      +4.5 69 +3.4 83 64.3 288 +7.1 81 +11.6 1
177 Nicholls St. 11.5%   17 - 12 13 - 7 18 - 12 13 - 7 -1.0      -0.4 193 -0.6 188 69.6 130 0.0 164 -0.6 3
179 TX A&M Corpus Christi 0.0%   16 - 14 12 - 8 16 - 14 12 - 8 -1.1      -1.4 212 +0.3 168 68.6 164 -2.9 213 -2.0 5
181 Lamar 11.6%   16 - 12 14 - 6 16 - 13 14 - 6 -1.2      -3.1 253 +1.9 117 64.4 285 -1.0 175 +1.1 2
218 SE Louisiana 0.0%   16 - 14 12 - 8 16 - 14 12 - 8 -3.1      -1.9 221 -1.3 211 67.3 201 -3.0 215 -2.1 6
244 Northwestern St. 4.1%   14 - 15 12 - 8 14 - 16 12 - 8 -4.5      -3.4 260 -1.1 208 61.7 339 -2.5 202 -2.0 4
262 Incarnate Word 0.0%   13 - 16 9 - 11 13 - 16 9 - 11 -5.6      -1.4 210 -4.3 303 61.9 333 -6.3 269 -6.6 8
268 UT Rio Grande Valley 0.0%   12 - 15 8 - 12 12 - 15 8 - 12 -5.9      -2.3 234 -3.6 276 74.9 34 -5.4 254 -6.8 9
282 Stephen F. Austin 0.0%   11 - 17 7 - 13 11 - 17 7 - 13 -6.9      -7.9 347 +1.0 142 68.4 173 -6.1 267 -8.0 10
285 Houston Christian 0.0%   10 - 20 9 - 11 10 - 20 9 - 11 -7.2      -4.7 298 -2.5 248 62.9 316 -8.0 300 -6.2 7
335 Texas A&M - Commerce 0.0%   5 - 24 3 - 17 5 - 26 3 - 17 -11.4      -7.5 341 -3.8 285 67.0 212 -12.8 342 -14.9 11
354 New Orleans 0.0%   4 - 27 2 - 18 4 - 27 2 - 18 -13.7      -5.5 316 -8.2 357 72.4 64 -14.1 350 -17.2 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
McNeese St. 1.0 100.0
Nicholls St. 3.0 100.0
TX A&M Corpus Christi 4.0 100.0
Lamar 2.0 100.0
SE Louisiana 4.0 100.0
Northwestern St. 4.0 100.0
Incarnate Word 7.0 100.0
UT Rio Grande Valley 9.0 100.0
Stephen F. Austin 10.0 100.0
Houston Christian 7.0 100.0
Texas A&M - Commerce 11.0 100.0
New Orleans 12.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
McNeese St. 19 - 1 100.0
Nicholls St. 13 - 7 100.0
TX A&M Corpus Christi 12 - 8 100.0
Lamar 14 - 6 100.0
SE Louisiana 12 - 8 100.0
Northwestern St. 12 - 8 100.0
Incarnate Word 9 - 11 100.0
UT Rio Grande Valley 8 - 12 100.0
Stephen F. Austin 7 - 13 100.0
Houston Christian 9 - 11 100.0
Texas A&M - Commerce 3 - 17 100.0
New Orleans 2 - 18 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
McNeese St. 100.0% 100.0
Nicholls St.
TX A&M Corpus Christi
Lamar
SE Louisiana
Northwestern St.
Incarnate Word
UT Rio Grande Valley
Stephen F. Austin
Houston Christian
Texas A&M - Commerce
New Orleans


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
McNeese St. 72.7% 72.7% 0.0% 12   1.2 55.8 15.4 0.4 27.3 0.0%
Nicholls St. 11.5% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 7.3 3.5 0.1 88.5 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Lamar 11.6% 11.6% 0.0% 0.1 4.6 6.2 0.8 88.4 0.0%
SE Louisiana 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Northwestern St. 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 1.0 3.1 95.9 0.0%
Incarnate Word 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Houston Christian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Texas A&M - Commerce 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
New Orleans 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
McNeese St. 72.7% 0.0% 72.7% 15.2% 3.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Nicholls St. 11.5% 0.0% 11.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lamar 11.6% 0.0% 11.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SE Louisiana 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern St. 4.1% 0.8% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Incarnate Word 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Houston Christian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas A&M - Commerce 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Orleans 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 99.6% 1.0 0.4 99.6
2nd Round 15.8% 0.2 84.2 15.8
Sweet Sixteen 3.6% 0.0 96.4 3.6
Elite Eight 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0