Southland
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
87 McNeese St. 67.2%   13   15 - 6 11 - 1 22 - 7 18 - 2 +6.5      +3.3 87 +3.2 90 64.4 287 +5.2 92 +8.2 1
186 TX A&M Corpus Christi 8.8%   11 - 9 8 - 4 16 - 12 13 - 7 -1.3      -0.9 201 -0.4 183 70.7 112 -2.3 207 -1.5 4
197 Nicholls St. 10.6%   11 - 9 8 - 4 16 - 12 13 - 7 -1.7      -0.7 192 -1.0 207 69.5 143 -0.1 169 0.0 2
218 Lamar 5.8%   10 - 10 8 - 4 14 - 14 12 - 8 -3.2      -3.2 260 0.0 168 66.1 239 -3.0 215 -0.5 3
228 SE Louisiana 4.8%   12 - 9 8 - 4 16 - 13 12 - 8 -3.7      -3.0 251 -0.7 192 68.3 177 -2.0 202 -1.7 5
264 UT Rio Grande Valley 0.7%   9 - 10 5 - 7 13 - 14 9 - 11 -5.8      -2.4 236 -3.4 275 74.1 48 -4.5 239 -6.7 8
270 Stephen F. Austin 0.1%   7 - 13 3 - 9 10 - 18 6 - 14 -6.1      -8.3 353 +2.1 113 66.1 235 -8.1 299 -12.4 10
290 Houston Christian 1.0%   8 - 13 7 - 5 12 - 17 11 - 9 -7.1      -2.9 245 -4.2 296 64.7 276 -6.2 268 -2.9 6
291 Incarnate Word 0.4%   7 - 12 4 - 8 11 - 16 8 - 12 -7.1      -0.8 197 -6.2 343 64.1 295 -9.2 314 -9.8 9
293 Northwestern St. 0.7%   8 - 12 7 - 5 11 - 17 10 - 10 -7.1      -5.3 316 -1.8 225 63.0 320 -4.6 244 -3.2 7
343 Texas A&M - Commerce 0.0%   3 - 18 1 - 11 5 - 26 3 - 17 -11.8      -7.5 346 -4.4 301 66.6 226 -13.8 347 -18.9 12
351 New Orleans 0.0%   4 - 19 2 - 10 6 - 25 4 - 16 -12.8      -5.9 325 -6.9 348 73.9 49 -11.9 335 -14.3 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
McNeese St. 1.0 99.8 0.2 0.0
TX A&M Corpus Christi 3.3 0.4 34.4 26.6 19.1 12.6 5.1 1.4 0.3 0.0
Nicholls St. 2.9 0.5 50.1 22.8 14.0 7.8 3.2 1.3 0.3 0.0
Lamar 3.8 0.4 25.3 23.3 20.0 15.5 9.5 4.4 1.4 0.2
SE Louisiana 3.9 0.2 21.2 22.2 21.7 17.8 10.8 4.6 1.3 0.2 0.0
UT Rio Grande Valley 7.6 0.1 0.6 2.0 5.0 10.5 21.4 33.0 21.7 5.6 0.2
Stephen F. Austin 9.5 0.0 0.1 1.2 4.1 10.0 23.9 52.1 7.5 1.1
Houston Christian 5.4 4.7 10.6 15.1 18.8 23.9 17.0 7.9 1.8 0.1
Incarnate Word 8.2 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.5 6.8 15.1 25.2 34.2 13.6 1.2 0.1
Northwestern St. 6.1 2.1 5.3 9.7 15.0 24.0 26.2 13.1 4.2 0.5
Texas A&M - Commerce 11.4 0.1 1.3 9.4 36.9 52.3
New Orleans 11.1 0.0 0.4 2.2 13.7 57.5 26.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
McNeese St. 18 - 2 0.2 1.1 5.1 18.2 39.4 36.0
TX A&M Corpus Christi 13 - 7 0.1 0.6 3.7 12.0 24.4 28.6 21.5 8.2 1.0
Nicholls St. 13 - 7 0.0 0.4 2.3 8.3 17.2 26.2 26.1 15.2 4.4
Lamar 12 - 8 0.2 2.4 8.6 17.6 25.0 24.1 15.3 6.0 1.0
SE Louisiana 12 - 8 0.3 2.3 9.6 19.8 26.8 23.1 12.9 4.5 0.7
UT Rio Grande Valley 9 - 11 0.5 4.4 14.0 25.6 27.9 18.4 7.5 1.7 0.2
Stephen F. Austin 6 - 14 1.8 7.7 18.0 25.8 24.0 15.2 6.0 1.4 0.1
Houston Christian 11 - 9 0.5 4.6 13.9 22.1 26.0 20.4 9.4 2.7 0.4
Incarnate Word 8 - 12 0.4 3.7 10.7 21.1 26.2 21.3 12.4 3.6 0.7
Northwestern St. 10 - 10 2.0 9.3 20.4 27.3 23.7 12.2 4.2 0.8 0.0
Texas A&M - Commerce 3 - 17 7.1 22.0 29.4 24.4 12.5 4.0 0.7 0.1
New Orleans 4 - 16 10.5 27.8 31.8 19.7 8.0 1.8 0.3 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
McNeese St. 99.8% 98.7 1.0 0.1 0.0
TX A&M Corpus Christi 0.4% 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
Nicholls St. 0.5% 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Lamar 0.4% 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0
SE Louisiana 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
UT Rio Grande Valley
Stephen F. Austin
Houston Christian
Incarnate Word
Northwestern St.
Texas A&M - Commerce
New Orleans


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
McNeese St. 67.2% 67.2% 0.0% 13   0.0 6.1 37.7 20.5 2.9 0.1 32.9 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 8.8% 8.8% 0.0% 0.1 0.8 3.0 4.2 0.8 91.2 0.0%
Nicholls St. 10.6% 10.6% 0.0% 0.1 0.8 3.3 5.3 1.1 89.4 0.0%
Lamar 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 3.3 1.9 94.2 0.0%
SE Louisiana 4.8% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.6 1.5 95.3 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 99.3 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Houston Christian 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.8 99.0 0.0%
Incarnate Word 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 99.6 0.0%
Northwestern St. 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.2 0.5 99.3 0.0%
Texas A&M - Commerce 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
New Orleans 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
McNeese St. 67.2% 0.0% 67.2% 11.6% 2.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 8.8% 0.1% 8.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nicholls St. 10.6% 0.2% 10.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lamar 5.8% 0.5% 5.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SE Louisiana 4.8% 0.3% 4.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 0.7% 0.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Houston Christian 1.0% 0.5% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Incarnate Word 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern St. 0.7% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas A&M - Commerce 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Orleans 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 98.9% 1.0 1.1 98.9
2nd Round 12.5% 0.1 87.5 12.5
Sweet Sixteen 2.5% 0.0 97.5 2.5
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0