Southland
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
78 McNeese St. 54.6%   12   5 - 2 1 - 1 22 - 7 18 - 4 +7.3      +3.2 97 +4.1 66 64.5 309 +8.4 77 -4.4 10
144 Stephen F. Austin 15.1%   5 - 2 1 - 0 20 - 9 15 - 7 +1.1      -0.9 193 +2.1 108 67.1 252 +2.4 145 +9.0 2
171 Incarnate Word 9.2%   2 - 3 1 - 0 15 - 13 13 - 9 -1.1      +1.8 121 -2.9 267 62.8 339 +3.2 132 +19.5 1
195 Lamar 5.8%   3 - 2 0 - 0 16 - 13 12 - 10 -2.4      -4.3 286 +1.9 116 64.1 316 +1.7 153 0.0 3
213 UT Rio Grande Valley 3.9%   1 - 5 0 - 1 13 - 16 11 - 11 -3.2      -1.3 199 -1.9 232 74.6 60 -5.8 256 -11.1 12
216 New Orleans 3.6%   2 - 6 0 - 0 13 - 18 11 - 11 -3.3      -1.7 214 -1.6 220 72.2 115 +0.4 165 0.0 3
237 TX A&M Corpus Christi 2.7%   0 - 5 0 - 0 10 - 17 10 - 12 -4.5      -4.4 290 -0.1 169 68.7 208 -5.7 251 0.0 3
248 SE Louisiana 2.0%   2 - 5 0 - 0 12 - 18 10 - 12 -4.8      -5.4 317 +0.6 147 67.5 238 -5.5 246 0.0 3
265 Nicholls St. 1.3%   0 - 7 0 - 0 9 - 21 9 - 13 -5.8      -4.4 287 -1.5 215 69.9 175 -12.3 330 0.0 3
282 Houston Christian 1.0%   2 - 4 0 - 0 10 - 19 8 - 14 -6.6      -2.3 229 -4.3 320 62.8 338 -10.1 311 0.0 3
300 East Texas A&M 0.4%   2 - 4 0 - 0 10 - 20 8 - 14 -7.8      -6.1 336 -1.7 221 68.0 219 -5.2 241 0.0 3
302 Northwestern St. 0.5%   0 - 7 0 - 1 8 - 21 8 - 14 -7.8      -2.3 228 -5.6 339 63.1 332 -11.8 322 -4.9 11




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Tue, Dec 2 282 Houston Christian 75 145 North Texas 77   
Tue, Dec 2 45 Creighton 96 265 Nicholls St. 76   
Wed, Dec 3 195 Lamar 65 318 Louisiana 55   
Wed, Dec 3 144 Stephen F. Austin 73 213 UT Rio Grande Valley 60   
Wed, Dec 3 75 Memphis 86 216 New Orleans 70   
Fri, Dec 5 78 McNeese St. 92 302 Northwestern St. 54   
Fri, Dec 5 300 East Texas A&M 59 5 Connecticut 83   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Dec 6 237 TX A&M Corpus Christi 63 195 Lamar 68 69%   
Sat, Dec 6 265 Nicholls St. 70 171 Incarnate Word 72 57%   
Sat, Dec 6 282 Houston Christian 69 216 New Orleans 75 73%   
Sun, Dec 7 182 Austin Peay 74 213 UT Rio Grande Valley 76 55%   
Sun, Dec 7 273 Central Arkansas 69 300 East Texas A&M 70 55%   
Sun, Dec 7 302 Northwestern St. 65 248 SE Louisiana 71 72%   
Sun, Dec 7 144 Stephen F. Austin 81 357 Louisiana Monroe 62 95%   
Mon, Dec 8 216 New Orleans 74 171 Incarnate Word 73 53%   
Tue, Dec 9 78 McNeese St. 71 110 Rhode Island 70 51%   
Wed, Dec 10 195 Lamar 61 52 San Diego St. 76 92%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
McNeese St. 1.5 68.5 19.0 7.2 2.7 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Stephen F. Austin 3.2 19.8 27.3 18.6 12.6 7.9 5.3 3.6 2.3 1.4 0.7 0.4 0.2
Incarnate Word 4.2 11.1 19.6 18.3 14.4 11.0 7.9 6.1 4.4 3.2 2.1 1.4 0.7
Lamar 5.4 5.4 11.4 13.1 13.4 11.9 10.7 9.6 7.9 6.1 4.9 3.5 2.1
UT Rio Grande Valley 6.2 2.8 7.4 10.6 12.0 12.3 11.7 10.4 9.5 8.1 6.9 4.9 3.6
New Orleans 6.0 3.0 7.9 10.5 12.2 12.0 12.5 10.7 9.5 7.8 6.3 4.7 2.8
TX A&M Corpus Christi 6.8 2.4 5.6 8.2 9.8 10.6 10.4 10.6 9.8 9.8 8.9 7.8 6.0
SE Louisiana 7.0 1.7 4.5 7.4 8.5 10.6 11.1 11.4 10.7 10.4 9.5 8.4 5.7
Nicholls St. 7.7 0.9 2.9 5.2 6.9 8.3 9.8 11.1 11.9 11.5 11.3 10.8 9.4
Houston Christian 8.2 0.6 2.1 4.0 5.7 7.3 8.7 9.6 11.3 12.4 12.6 13.1 12.6
East Texas A&M 8.9 0.3 1.3 2.3 4.1 5.0 7.0 8.5 10.2 12.2 14.1 16.3 18.7
Northwestern St. 9.0 0.2 1.1 2.2 3.4 5.2 6.7 8.7 10.1 12.5 14.8 16.6 18.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0
McNeese St. 18 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.4 4.2 6.9 10.4 14.8 18.8 19.1 14.4 6.8
Stephen F. Austin 15 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.5 3.8 5.6 8.3 10.5 12.3 13.0 12.9 11.1 8.3 5.4 2.7 1.0 0.2
Incarnate Word 13 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.8 3.1 4.9 6.7 8.1 10.5 12.7 12.4 10.8 9.7 7.3 5.2 2.8 1.4 0.5 0.1
Lamar 12 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.8 2.7 4.6 6.3 8.5 10.0 11.3 11.3 10.7 9.6 8.2 6.0 4.0 2.3 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
UT Rio Grande Valley 11 - 11 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.6 2.8 4.0 6.8 8.0 10.0 11.3 11.4 11.8 9.9 7.9 5.9 3.8 2.4 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
New Orleans 11 - 11 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.4 3.8 5.9 8.1 10.1 11.7 11.9 11.4 10.2 8.5 5.9 4.1 2.2 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
TX A&M Corpus Christi 10 - 12 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.6 4.5 5.9 8.0 9.7 10.9 10.9 10.3 9.8 8.3 6.3 4.2 2.9 1.7 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
SE Louisiana 10 - 12 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.2 2.6 4.5 6.8 9.1 10.0 11.9 11.6 11.3 9.3 7.4 5.6 3.9 2.3 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Nicholls St. 9 - 13 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.1 4.1 6.7 8.1 10.4 11.6 12.3 11.4 9.6 7.8 5.5 4.0 2.4 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Houston Christian 8 - 14 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.1 5.1 7.7 10.4 11.6 11.7 11.8 10.1 8.5 6.6 4.7 3.1 1.9 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0
East Texas A&M 8 - 14 0.3 1.1 2.6 4.9 7.4 10.4 11.6 12.6 11.8 10.7 8.6 6.7 4.9 3.0 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northwestern St. 8 - 14 0.2 1.0 2.6 4.8 8.3 9.9 12.0 12.9 12.1 10.8 9.2 6.4 4.4 2.9 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
McNeese St. 68.5% 56.9 9.9 1.5 0.2 0.0
Stephen F. Austin 19.8% 13.0 5.6 1.0 0.1 0.0
Incarnate Word 11.1% 6.5 3.6 0.9 0.1 0.0
Lamar 5.4% 3.1 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
UT Rio Grande Valley 2.8% 1.3 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
New Orleans 3.0% 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.0
TX A&M Corpus Christi 2.4% 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.0
SE Louisiana 1.7% 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Nicholls St. 0.9% 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
Houston Christian 0.6% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
East Texas A&M 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.0
Northwestern St. 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
McNeese St. 54.6% 54.5% 0.1% 12   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 10.3 27.3 12.9 2.6 0.2 45.4 0.2%
Stephen F. Austin 15.1% 15.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.0 5.3 5.3 2.0 0.2 84.9 0.0%
Incarnate Word 9.2% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.6 3.4 1.9 0.3 90.8 0.0%
Lamar 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.3 1.7 0.2 94.2 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.5 0.6 96.1 0.0%
New Orleans 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.4 96.4 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.0 0.6 97.3 0.0%
SE Louisiana 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.4 98.0 0.0%
Nicholls St. 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 98.8 0.0%
Houston Christian 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 99.0 0.0%
East Texas A&M 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 99.6 0.0%
Northwestern St. 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 99.5 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
McNeese St. 54.6% 0.1% 54.6% 11.6% 2.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin 15.1% 0.0% 15.1% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Incarnate Word 9.2% 0.1% 9.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lamar 5.8% 0.0% 5.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 3.9% 0.2% 3.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Orleans 3.6% 0.2% 3.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 2.7% 0.3% 2.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SE Louisiana 2.0% 0.2% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nicholls St. 1.3% 0.4% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Houston Christian 1.0% 0.2% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Texas A&M 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern St. 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 99.2% 1.0 0.8 99.1 0.0
2nd Round 14.1% 0.1 85.9 14.1
Sweet Sixteen 3.0% 0.0 97.0 3.0
Elite Eight 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0