New Orleans
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.2 #235
Expected Predictive Rating -2.9 #216
Pace 72.2 #92
Improvement -1.8 #261

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #124 C B+ D B+ D+
Defense #334 C D+ F F C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #181 1.11 #242 -1.1 #225
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #91 0.78 #134 +2.1 #81
Three Pointers 37% #274 1.06 #116 -1.3 #229
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #188 -0.4 #188
Freethrows 19.7 #73 77% #58 15.1 #41
Second Chance 36.6% #35 1.06 #154 0.39 #60
Turnovers 18.3% #295
Total Offense +1.6 #124

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #191 1.06 #70 +1.8 #118
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #222 0.91 #349 -0.8 #249
Three Pointers 43% #136 1.02 #194 -0.9 #215
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #178 +0.1 #178
Freethrows 21.4 #338 75% #267 15.9 #341
Second Chance 36.0% #340 1.01 #126 0.36 #285
Turnovers 13.5% #334
Total Defense -5.7 #334

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.2% #265 0.4% #199
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.4% #170 -0.7% #170
Possession Length 17.3 #169 16.3 #34
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #214 0.19 #231
Improvement +2.0 #78 -3.8 #343

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.1% 2.6% 1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.6 15.3
.500 or above 4.5% 15.7% 3.4%
.500 or above in Conference 41.0% 69.6% 38.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.5% 0.3% 2.7%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round1.0% 2.5% 0.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: McNeese St. (Away) - 9.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 4
Quad 20 - 41 - 8
Quad 33 - 54 - 13
Quad 49 - 713 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 45 @TCU W 78 - 74 5% +12  1 - 0 +18 +9 A- A+ F +9 A+ D D-
 Mon, Nov 10 43 @LSU L 58 - 93 5% -17  1 - 1 -20 -11 F C A- -8 C+ B F
 Fri, Nov 14 172 @Tulane W 85 - 63 28% +11  2 - 1 +24 +19 A+ A+ F +7 A+ A+ F
 Tue, Nov 18 279 @Pepperdine L 79 - 90 48% -6  2 - 2 -15 +3 C B- F -17 F B- F
 Fri, Nov 21 143 @Fresno St. L 76 - 85 22% -4  2 - 3 -5 +1 D+ B F -5 B- F C
 Mon, Nov 24 76 @Mississippi St. L 78 - 81 OT 9% +4  2 - 4 +8 +4 C C+ F +4 A F A
 Wed, Nov 26 15 @Texas Tech L 50 - 82 2% -12  2 - 5 -11 -14 F C+ F +3 A+ F B+
 Wed, Dec 3 92 @Memphis L 70 - 86 12% -16  2 - 6 -7 +5 C+ F B -12 F A+ C
 Sat, Dec 6 298 Houston Christian L 76 - 85 74% -4  2 - 7 0 - 1 -20 +0 D+ F A- -21 D+ F F
 Mon, Dec 8 223 Incarnate Word W 84 - 83 60% +8  3 - 7 1 - 1 -6 +10 A+ D- F -15 F F B
 Sat, Dec 13 4 @Houston L 57 - 99 1% -25  3 - 8 -17 -1 D- A+ F -18 F A+ F
 Mon, Dec 29 218 @UT Rio Grande Valley W 85 - 69 36% +8  4 - 8 2 - 1 +16 +14 C A+ B+ +2 D+ A A+
 Wed, Dec 31 186 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 69 - 83 30% -6  4 - 9 2 - 2 -13 +2 D+ C F -15 B F F
 Sat, Jan 3 276 @Northwestern St. L 68 - 74 47% +5  4 - 10 2 - 3 -9 -4 F D C -5 A+ F D-
 Mon, Jan 5 308 East Texas A&M W 83 - 73 76% +8  5 - 10 3 - 3 -1 +6 D+ F A+ -8 C+ B+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 232 Nicholls St. L 77 - 90 61% -7  5 - 11 3 - 4 -20 +9 C A+ D- -31 F F F
 Mon, Jan 12 272 @SE Louisiana W 79 - 76 46% +1  6 - 11 4 - 4 -0 +8 D- A+ F -8 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 17 105 Stephen F. Austin L 79 - 84 29% -1  6 - 12 4 - 5 -4 +11 A+ A+ D -15 F A+ F
 Mon, Jan 19 211 Lamar W 89 - 76 58% +4  7 - 12 5 - 5 +7 +13 A+ C C -7 D- A- D+
 Sat, Jan 24 87 @McNeese St. L 72 - 86 9%
 Mon, Jan 26 232 @Nicholls St. L 80 - 83 38%
 Sat, Jan 31 276 Northwestern St. W 81 - 76 69%
 Mon, Feb 2 308 @East Texas A&M W 79 - 78 55%
 Sat, Feb 7 218 UT Rio Grande Valley W 79 - 77 58%
 Mon, Feb 9 186 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 75 - 74 53%
 Sat, Feb 14 298 @Houston Christian W 78 - 77 53%
 Mon, Feb 16 223 @Incarnate Word L 75 - 78 37%
 Sat, Feb 21 211 @Lamar L 72 - 76 35%
 Mon, Feb 23 105 @Stephen F. Austin L 70 - 82 14%
 Sat, Feb 28 87 McNeese St. L 75 - 83 22%
 Mon, Mar 2 272 SE Louisiana W 77 - 72 68%
Totals 12 - 19 10 - 12 -4 +2 C B+ D -6 C D+ F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.6 2.9 1.8 0.5 0.0 6.9 3rd
4th 0.2 3.0 5.5 3.1 0.5 0.0 12.3 4th
5th 0.2 3.1 8.4 4.5 0.5 0.0 16.6 5th
6th 0.0 1.8 9.4 6.1 0.9 0.0 18.2 6th
7th 0.6 6.7 7.3 1.1 0.0 15.7 7th
8th 0.1 3.4 7.2 1.6 0.1 12.4 8th
9th 0.0 1.3 5.4 2.4 0.1 9.2 9th
10th 0.3 2.6 2.0 0.1 5.1 10th
11th 0.1 0.8 1.3 0.2 2.4 11th
12th 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.7 12th
Total 0.2 1.6 5.5 11.6 18.4 21.6 18.8 12.5 6.5 2.4 0.7 0.1 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6 9.5% 0.0    0.0
15-7 0.7% 0.0    0.0
14-8 0.0%
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6 0.1% 28.6% 28.6% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-7 0.7% 11.2% 11.2% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
14-8 2.4% 6.6% 6.6% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.3
13-9 6.5% 3.7% 3.7% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 6.3
12-10 12.5% 1.5% 1.5% 15.4 0.1 0.1 12.3
11-11 18.8% 1.3% 1.3% 15.7 0.1 0.2 18.6
10-12 21.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 21.5
9-13 18.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 18.3
8-14 11.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 11.6
7-15 5.5% 5.5
6-16 1.6% 1.6
5-17 0.2% 0.2
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 15.1 98.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%