Lamar
Southland
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.2 #211
Expected Predictive Rating -3.6 #223
Pace 64.2 #306
Improvement +0.4 #161

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #289 D- C C F F
Defense #134 C- C B F C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #330 0.95 #360 -7.2 #354
2 Pt. Jumpers 34% #9 0.78 #143 +5.4 #8
Three Pointers 34% #314 1.02 #179 -3.4 #301
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #325 -5.2 #325
Freethrows 12.3 #355 70% #250 8.6 #359
Second Chance 33.1% #115 1.01 #237 0.33 #145
Turnovers 16.7% #196
Total Offense -4.2 #289

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #159 1.21 #255 -1.7 #238
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #172 0.68 #74 +0.7 #138
Three Pointers 40% #219 1.06 #244 -0.3 #193
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #215 -1.3 #215
Freethrows 22.0 #346 70% #70 15.5 #332
Second Chance 32.4% #259 1.00 #117 0.32 #197
Turnovers 18.5% #71
Total Defense +1.0 #134

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -4.3% #359 0.2% #177
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.1% #277 2.4% #224
Possession Length 17.8 #223 18.0 #286
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #114 0.19 #256
Improvement +0.9 #134 -0.4 #218

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.9% 2.6% 1.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.5 14.8
.500 or above 44.0% 63.3% 34.5%
.500 or above in Conference 59.6% 77.8% 50.6%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 0.3% 1.4%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round1.9% 2.5% 1.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stephen F. Austin (Home) - 33.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 53 - 9
Quad 411 - 715 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 10 45 @TCU L 65 - 78 6% -2  0 - 1 +1 +7 B C A+ -7 D F A+
 Mon, Nov 17 361 @Louisiana Monroe W 79 - 66 82% +9  1 - 1 +0 -3 F F B+ +3 C+ D B+
 Sun, Nov 23 161 @Montana W 68 - 63 28% +0  2 - 1 +8 -6 F A+ F +14 A+ A+ A-
 Mon, Nov 24 139 Oakland L 68 - 83 33% -4  2 - 2 -14 -9 F A+ F -4 B- F B+
 Wed, Dec 3 312 Louisiana W 65 - 55 80% -2  3 - 2 -2 -2 F D- A+ +1 D+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 186 TX A&M Corpus Christi L 49 - 57 56% -1  3 - 3 0 - 1 -13 -14 F D- B- +0 C- C- A+
 Wed, Dec 10 46 @San Diego St. L 71 - 89 6% -10  3 - 4 -4 +1 B D+ F -4 C- B- C+
 Tue, Dec 16 218 UT Rio Grande Valley L 72 - 83 62% -12  3 - 5 0 - 2 -17 -3 B- F D -15 F A- D
 Sat, Dec 20 261 Nebraska Omaha L 82 - 85 OT 70% -7  3 - 6 -12 +1 F A+ C- -12 F F B
 Mon, Dec 29 276 @Northwestern St. W 76 - 61 51% +12  4 - 6 1 - 2 +12 +4 A- F D- +9 A- A B
 Wed, Dec 31 308 @East Texas A&M W 69 - 62 58% -0  5 - 6 2 - 2 +2 -0 F A+ A +2 A+ F A+
 Fri, Jan 2 87 @McNeese St. L 70 - 82 11% -4  5 - 7 2 - 3 -2 +12 F A+ A+ -16 F D C
 Mon, Jan 5 272 @SE Louisiana L 52 - 60 50% -9  5 - 8 2 - 4 -11 -10 F B- D+ -3 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 223 Incarnate Word W 63 - 51 63% +5  6 - 8 3 - 4 +5 -4 D- F F +11 D A+ A+
 Mon, Jan 12 298 Houston Christian W 64 - 56 77% -1  7 - 8 4 - 4 -3 -9 D F F +7 A+ B- B
 Sat, Jan 17 232 @Nicholls St. W 90 - 80 41% +5  8 - 8 5 - 4 +9 +18 A+ A+ C -9 C- F B+
 Mon, Jan 19 235 @New Orleans L 76 - 89 42% -4  8 - 9 5 - 5 -14 -3 C F D -11 F A- C
 Sat, Jan 24 105 Stephen F. Austin L 63 - 68 33%
 Mon, Jan 26 308 East Texas A&M W 72 - 64 78%
 Sat, Jan 31 87 McNeese St. L 65 - 72 25%
 Mon, Feb 2 272 SE Louisiana W 68 - 62 71%
 Sat, Feb 7 105 @Stephen F. Austin L 60 - 71 16%
 Mon, Feb 9 276 Northwestern St. W 72 - 66 72%
 Sat, Feb 14 186 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 62 - 66 34%
 Mon, Feb 16 218 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 66 - 69 40%
 Sat, Feb 21 235 New Orleans W 76 - 72 65%
 Mon, Feb 23 232 Nicholls St. W 72 - 68 64%
 Sat, Feb 28 223 @Incarnate Word L 65 - 68 41%
 Mon, Mar 2 298 @Houston Christian W 69 - 67 56%
Totals 14 - 15 11 - 11 -3 -4 D- C C +1 C- C B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.4 4.8 4.2 1.4 0.1 13.2 3rd
4th 0.2 3.8 9.0 5.7 1.6 0.1 20.3 4th
5th 0.2 3.3 10.0 6.3 1.2 0.1 21.0 5th
6th 0.0 1.6 7.7 5.8 0.9 0.0 16.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 5.0 5.6 0.9 0.0 12.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.9 5.0 1.3 0.0 8.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.8 1.3 0.1 4.7 9th
10th 0.1 1.1 1.2 0.1 2.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.9 11th
12th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
Total 0.1 0.5 2.2 6.4 13.1 18.2 20.9 18.6 11.8 6.1 2.0 0.3 0.1 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5 60.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
16-6 6.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-7 1.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-8 0.0%
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-6 0.3% 15.2% 15.2% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
15-7 2.0% 8.3% 8.3% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.8
14-8 6.1% 5.9% 5.9% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 5.7
13-9 11.8% 3.1% 3.1% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 11.4
12-10 18.6% 2.2% 2.2% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 18.2
11-11 20.9% 1.6% 1.6% 15.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 20.5
10-12 18.2% 0.9% 0.9% 15.7 0.1 0.1 18.0
9-13 13.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 13.1
8-14 6.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.4
7-15 2.2% 2.2
6-16 0.5% 0.5
5-17 0.1% 0.1
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 14.7 98.1 0.0%