Lamar
Southland
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.2#181
Expected Predictive Rating-1.0#175
Pace64.4#285
Improvement+3.0#69

Offense
Total Offense-3.1#253
First Shot-7.5#350
After Offensive Rebound+4.4#10
Layup/Dunks-2.9#287
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#42
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#298
Freethrows-3.5#352
Improvement+0.9#147

Defense
Total Defense+1.9#117
First Shot+1.6#120
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#155
Layups/Dunks+1.0#132
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#215
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#67
Freethrows-2.0#312
Improvement+2.1#83
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.6% 23.6% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.6 n/a
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round11.6% 23.6% 0.0%
Second Round0.3% 0.6% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 34 - 34 - 8
Quad 413 - 517 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2024 22   @ Texas A&M L 71-97 4%     0 - 1 -6.9 +7.3 -13.5
  Nov 17, 2024 170   Sam Houston St. L 72-85 58%     0 - 2 -16.3 -2.0 -14.9
  Nov 22, 2024 112   @ Akron L 72-79 23%     0 - 3 -0.7 -4.1 +3.9
  Nov 23, 2024 288   Alabama St. L 75-77 72%     0 - 4 -9.3 +2.0 -11.4
  Nov 24, 2024 149   Nebraska Omaha L 59-65 42%     0 - 5 -5.3 -11.7 +6.0
  Dec 05, 2024 179   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi W 65-61 39%     1 - 5 1 - 0 +5.7 -3.8 +9.6
  Dec 07, 2024 268   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 84-52 57%     2 - 5 2 - 0 +28.9 +12.8 +17.5
  Dec 14, 2024 305   @ Louisiana W 74-45 66%     3 - 5 +23.4 +10.3 +16.9
  Dec 17, 2024 293   @ Southern Miss W 69-65 64%     4 - 5 -0.9 -2.1 +1.3
  Dec 21, 2024 7   @ Texas Tech L 57-101 2%     4 - 6 -21.5 -5.9 -16.3
  Jan 04, 2025 285   Houston Christian W 63-61 80%     5 - 6 3 - 0 -7.9 -10.5 +2.6
  Jan 06, 2025 262   Incarnate Word W 72-58 75%     6 - 6 4 - 0 +5.6 +0.0 +6.8
  Jan 11, 2025 282   Stephen F. Austin L 63-72 79%     6 - 7 4 - 1 -18.7 -5.4 -13.9
  Jan 13, 2025 354   New Orleans L 62-68 92%     6 - 8 4 - 2 -22.5 -15.5 -7.4
  Jan 18, 2025 69   @ McNeese St. L 64-75 13%     6 - 9 4 - 3 -0.3 +2.7 -4.1
  Jan 20, 2025 177   @ Nicholls St. W 78-74 39%     7 - 9 5 - 3 +5.7 +6.2 -0.5
  Jan 25, 2025 335   Texas A&M - Commerce W 61-58 OT 88%     8 - 9 6 - 3 -11.1 -18.9 +7.7
  Jan 27, 2025 244   Northwestern St. W 69-59 72%     9 - 9 7 - 3 +2.7 +3.4 +0.7
  Feb 01, 2025 282   @ Stephen F. Austin W 67-62 61%     10 - 9 8 - 3 +0.8 -1.1 +2.1
  Feb 03, 2025 218   @ SE Louisiana L 79-81 47%     10 - 10 8 - 4 -2.4 +8.7 -11.1
  Feb 08, 2025 268   UT Rio Grande Valley W 70-68 76%     11 - 10 9 - 4 -6.6 -4.5 -2.1
  Feb 10, 2025 179   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 67-56 60%     12 - 10 10 - 4 +7.2 -0.1 +8.4
  Feb 15, 2025 335   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 65-55 76%     13 - 10 11 - 4 +1.4 -6.7 +8.7
  Feb 17, 2025 244   @ Northwestern St. W 75-65 52%     14 - 10 12 - 4 +8.2 +14.9 -5.0
  Feb 22, 2025 285   @ Houston Christian W 66-58 62%     15 - 10 13 - 4 +3.6 +1.6 +3.1
  Feb 24, 2025 262   @ Incarnate Word L 61-73 56%     15 - 11 13 - 5 -14.9 -6.6 -9.9
  Mar 01, 2025 69   McNeese St. L 66-68 27%     15 - 12 13 - 6 +3.2 +1.3 +1.7
  Mar 03, 2025 177   Nicholls St. W 65-53 60%     16 - 12 14 - 6 +8.2 -2.7 +12.2
  Mar 11, 2025 177   Nicholls St. L 68-69 49%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 100.0 100.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 100.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 100.0% 11.6% 11.6% 14.6 0.1 4.6 6.2 0.8 88.4
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 11.6% 11.6% 0.0% 14.6 0.1 4.6 6.2 0.8 88.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 11.6% 100.0% 14.6 1.0 39.6 52.9 6.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 37.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 50.7%