Lamar
Southland
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.2#218
Expected Predictive Rating-3.0#215
Pace66.1#239
Improvement+0.1#177

Offense
Total Offense-3.2#260
First Shot-7.7#352
After Offensive Rebound+4.4#9
Layup/Dunks-3.0#290
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#42
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#299
Freethrows-3.5#351
Improvement+0.3#168

Defense
Total Defense+0.0#168
First Shot+0.0#181
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#192
Layups/Dunks+0.5#151
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#229
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#85
Freethrows-2.4#335
Improvement-0.1#192
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.8% 6.7% 3.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.1 15.4
.500 or above 62.6% 72.1% 40.7%
.500 or above in Conference 97.4% 99.3% 93.1%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.5% 0.4% 0.7%
First Round5.5% 6.4% 3.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UT Rio Grande Valley (Home) - 69.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 33 - 34 - 7
Quad 412 - 715 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2024 19   @ Texas A&M L 71-97 3%     0 - 1 -7.6 +6.0 -12.8
  Nov 17, 2024 181   Sam Houston St. L 72-85 51%     0 - 2 -16.6 -1.1 -16.0
  Nov 22, 2024 100   @ Akron L 72-79 16%     0 - 3 +0.2 -2.5 +3.2
  Nov 23, 2024 308   Alabama St. L 75-77 70%     0 - 4 -10.5 +0.2 -10.8
  Nov 24, 2024 212   Nebraska Omaha L 59-65 48%     0 - 5 -8.7 -12.4 +3.2
  Dec 05, 2024 186   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi W 65-61 33%     1 - 5 1 - 0 +5.2 -4.6 +9.9
  Dec 07, 2024 264   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 84-52 50%     2 - 5 2 - 0 +28.7 +12.8 +17.4
  Dec 14, 2024 301   @ Louisiana W 74-45 58%     3 - 5 +23.7 +9.6 +17.9
  Dec 17, 2024 248   @ Southern Miss W 69-65 48%     4 - 5 +1.3 -1.4 +2.8
  Dec 21, 2024 12   @ Texas Tech L 57-101 3%     4 - 6 -23.9 -6.5 -18.1
  Jan 04, 2025 290   Houston Christian W 63-61 73%     5 - 6 3 - 0 -7.6 -12.0 +4.6
  Jan 06, 2025 291   Incarnate Word W 72-58 73%     6 - 6 4 - 0 +4.4 -1.8 +7.5
  Jan 11, 2025 270   Stephen F. Austin L 63-72 70%     6 - 7 4 - 1 -17.6 -4.1 -14.2
  Jan 13, 2025 351   New Orleans L 62-68 87%     6 - 8 4 - 2 -21.3 -14.1 -7.7
  Jan 18, 2025 87   @ McNeese St. L 64-75 13%     6 - 9 4 - 3 -2.0 +2.3 -5.4
  Jan 20, 2025 197   @ Nicholls St. W 78-74 35%     7 - 9 5 - 3 +4.8 +5.6 -0.8
  Jan 25, 2025 343   Texas A&M - Commerce W 61-58 OT 85%     8 - 9 6 - 3 -11.3 -19.3 +7.9
  Jan 27, 2025 293   Northwestern St. W 69-59 73%     9 - 9 7 - 3 +0.4 +2.9 -1.1
  Feb 01, 2025 270   @ Stephen F. Austin W 67-62 52%     10 - 9 8 - 3 +1.4 -0.1 +1.6
  Feb 03, 2025 228   @ SE Louisiana L 79-81 42%     10 - 10 8 - 4 -3.2 +9.1 -12.4
  Feb 08, 2025 264   UT Rio Grande Valley W 75-70 70%    
  Feb 10, 2025 186   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 71-70 54%    
  Feb 15, 2025 343   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 70-64 70%    
  Feb 17, 2025 293   @ Northwestern St. W 66-65 53%    
  Feb 22, 2025 290   @ Houston Christian W 69-68 53%    
  Feb 24, 2025 291   @ Incarnate Word W 70-69 53%    
  Mar 01, 2025 87   McNeese St. L 64-71 26%    
  Mar 03, 2025 197   Nicholls St. W 71-70 56%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 1st
2nd 0.5 6.6 11.7 5.7 0.8 25.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 6.5 13.0 3.5 0.1 23.3 3rd
4th 0.1 3.7 11.9 4.2 0.1 20.0 4th
5th 1.2 8.4 5.6 0.3 15.5 5th
6th 0.1 4.1 4.9 0.5 9.5 6th
7th 1.2 2.8 0.4 4.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 0.4 1.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 0.2 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.2 2.4 8.6 17.6 25.0 24.1 15.3 6.0 1.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 16.7% 0.2    0.0 0.2
15-5 3.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0
14-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 1.0% 20.8% 20.8% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.8
15-5 6.0% 14.5% 14.5% 14.6 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.0 5.1
14-6 15.3% 11.8% 11.8% 15.1 0.2 1.2 0.4 13.5
13-7 24.1% 6.9% 6.9% 15.4 0.0 1.0 0.6 22.4
12-8 25.0% 3.5% 3.5% 15.5 0.0 0.4 0.5 24.1
11-9 17.6% 1.8% 1.8% 15.7 0.1 0.2 17.3
10-10 8.6% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 8.5
9-11 2.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.4
8-12 0.2% 0.2
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 3.3 1.9 94.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 13.5 5.0 45.0 50.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%