San Diego St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +11.1 #46
Expected Predictive Rating +11.3 #51
Pace 70.5 #135
Improvement +2.4 #74

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #88 B B C C D
Defense #24 A- B+ A C+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #185 1.32 #30 +2.9 #89
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #47 0.70 #271 +2.0 #82
Three Pointers 34% #320 1.15 #27 -1.5 #234
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #84 +3.4 #83
Freethrows 17.3 #187 75% #112 13.0 #159
Second Chance 33.5% #103 1.11 #98 0.37 #73
Turnovers 16.1% #154
Total Offense +3.7 #88

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% #351 1.03 #35 +7.3 #12
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #245 0.54 #2 +2.8 #10
Three Pointers 53% #5 0.97 #113 -4.6 #338
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #36 +5.6 #36
Freethrows 15.7 #97 76% #316 11.9 #144
Second Chance 26.5% #49 0.99 #105 0.26 #50
Turnovers 20.1% #26
Total Defense +7.4 #24

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.9% #301 -0.7% #104
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 8.8% #52 -10.3% #32
Possession Length 16.1 #63 18.0 #293
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #94 0.12 #34
Improvement -1.3 #259 +3.7 #22

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.8% 1.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 41.9% 46.7% 32.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 26.5% 31.0% 18.2%
Average Seed 10.0 9.8 10.3
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
Conference Champion 47.0% 54.7% 31.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four10.4% 11.1% 9.2%
First Round36.7% 40.9% 28.2%
Second Round14.0% 16.1% 9.8%
Sweet Sixteen3.0% 3.6% 2.0%
Elite Eight0.8% 1.0% 0.4%
Final Four0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNLV (Away) - 66.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b2 - 32 - 5
Quad 27 - 39 - 8
Quad 37 - 215 - 10
Quad 46 - 021 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 250 Long Beach St. W 77 - 45 95% +13  1 - 0 +24 -1 D A+ F +24 A+ A A+
 Sun, Nov 9 219 Idaho St. W 73 - 57 94% +11  2 - 0 +10 +5 A+ F F +7 C+ A A+
 Tue, Nov 18 112 Troy L 107 - 108 2OT 84% -3  2 - 1 -1 +11 C+ A+ F -11 B+ F D-
 Mon, Nov 24 1 Michigan L 54 - 94 10% -18  2 - 2 -15 -10 C F F -2 A F B+
 Tue, Nov 25 68 Oregon W 97 - 80 62% +10  3 - 2 +25 +27 A+ A+ F -2 D A+ C+
 Wed, Nov 26 41 Baylor L 81 - 91 46% -4  3 - 3 +2 +11 A F B -8 F A+ D+
 Wed, Dec 3 107 Utah Valley W 77 - 66 82% +6  4 - 3 +12 +5 C+ A- C+ +7 B+ A A+
 Wed, Dec 10 211 Lamar W 89 - 71 94% +10  5 - 3 +12 +9 B C B +2 D A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 17 340 Air Force W 81 - 58 98% +8  6 - 3 1 - 0 +9 +12 A- A+ D+ -1 C+ F B+
 Sat, Dec 20 2 Arizona L 45 - 68 13% -5  6 - 4 +0 -11 F F A+ +9 A+ B- A-
 Tue, Dec 30 238 @San Jose St. W 81 - 68 87% +4  7 - 4 2 - 0 +12 +3 C+ A D +8 A+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 3 66 Boise St. W 110 - 107 3OT 71% +6  8 - 4 3 - 0 +8 +11 A+ A+ B -4 C A+ B-
 Tue, Jan 6 80 @Nevada W 73 - 68 53% -2  9 - 4 4 - 0 +15 +11 C+ A+ F +5 A+ F C+
 Sat, Jan 10 143 Fresno St. W 71 - 52 89% +15  10 - 4 5 - 0 +17 -4 F A+ A +20 A+ A+ A
 Wed, Jan 14 108 @Wyoming W 74 - 57 65% +11  11 - 4 6 - 0 +24 +8 B+ D+ A+ +17 A+ A+ C
 Sat, Jan 17 51 New Mexico W 83 - 79 63% +3  12 - 4 7 - 0 +12 +7 A+ D+ C +4 A- B A+
 Wed, Jan 21 79 @Grand Canyon L 69 - 70 53% -2  12 - 5 7 - 1 +9 +4 D C A+ +6 B- A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 114 @UNLV W 79 - 74 66%
 Wed, Jan 28 96 Colorado St. W 76 - 67 79%
 Sat, Jan 31 39 @Utah St. L 73 - 78 33%
 Tue, Feb 3 108 Wyoming W 78 - 68 83%
 Sat, Feb 7 340 @Air Force W 77 - 57 97%
 Sat, Feb 14 80 Nevada W 75 - 68 73%
 Tue, Feb 17 79 Grand Canyon W 75 - 68 73%
 Sat, Feb 21 96 @Colorado St. W 73 - 70 60%
 Wed, Feb 25 39 Utah St. W 76 - 75 55%
 Sat, Feb 28 51 @New Mexico L 73 - 76 39%
 Tue, Mar 3 66 @Boise St. L 70 - 71 49%
 Fri, Mar 6 114 UNLV W 82 - 71 84%
Totals 20 - 9 15 - 5 +11 +4 B B C +7 A- B+ A




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.0 10.4 15.9 12.5 5.2 1.0 47.0 1st
2nd 0.0 1.4 8.8 10.7 3.0 0.2 24.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 5.2 6.6 1.5 0.0 13.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 2.3 4.6 1.3 0.0 8.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 2.5 0.9 0.0 4.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 0.6 1.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.3 5.8 12.1 18.7 22.6 18.9 12.7 5.2 1.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 1.0    1.0
18-2 100.0% 5.2    5.2 0.0
17-3 98.7% 12.5    11.3 1.2 0.0
16-4 83.9% 15.9    9.9 5.5 0.4 0.0
15-5 46.0% 10.4    2.9 5.1 2.1 0.3 0.0
14-6 10.5% 2.0    0.1 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.1
13-7 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 47.0% 47.0 30.4 12.4 3.3 0.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 1.0% 97.0% 40.4% 56.7% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.0%
18-2 5.2% 86.4% 33.8% 52.6% 8.5 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.7 79.4%
17-3 12.7% 72.7% 29.6% 43.1% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.6 3.2 1.9 0.0 3.5 61.2%
16-4 18.9% 55.2% 25.8% 29.4% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.7 4.1 4.3 0.0 8.5 39.6%
15-5 22.6% 39.5% 21.5% 17.9% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.8 5.3 0.1 13.7 22.9%
14-6 18.7% 26.1% 15.8% 10.3% 10.7 0.1 1.1 3.6 0.1 13.8 12.2%
13-7 12.1% 18.2% 13.5% 4.7% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.8 0.1 9.9 5.4%
12-8 5.8% 10.4% 8.8% 1.5% 11.0 0.0 0.5 0.1 5.2 1.7%
11-9 2.3% 7.3% 7.1% 0.2% 11.1 0.1 0.0 2.1 0.2%
10-10 0.6% 3.6% 3.6% 11.0 0.0 0.5
9-11 0.1% 4.0% 4.0% 12.0 0.0 0.1
8-12
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 41.9% 21.0% 21.0% 10.0 58.1 26.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 5.1 3.7 3.7 18.3 36.6 26.8 11.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 97.8% 7.0 4.4 20.0 46.7 22.2 4.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 90.5% 8.0 9.5 28.6 16.7 26.2 7.1 2.4