San Diego St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.9#43
Expected Predictive Rating+15.9#24
Pace65.7#263
Improvement-0.5#215

Offense
Total Offense+4.2#71
First Shot+4.2#67
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#178
Layup/Dunks+3.0#78
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#114
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#168
Freethrows-0.4#200
Improvement+1.8#57

Defense
Total Defense+6.6#27
First Shot+8.9#5
After Offensive Rebounds-2.2#329
Layups/Dunks+8.9#8
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#173
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#262
Freethrows+1.5#77
Improvement-2.2#334
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.8% 1.0% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 3.8% 4.6% 1.1%
Top 6 Seed 9.6% 11.3% 3.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 52.6% 56.3% 39.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 37.6% 41.5% 25.2%
Average Seed 8.8 8.7 9.5
.500 or above 99.1% 99.6% 97.4%
.500 or above in Conference 97.0% 97.5% 95.3%
Conference Champion 33.8% 36.1% 25.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four9.3% 9.6% 8.1%
First Round47.9% 51.5% 35.0%
Second Round24.7% 27.1% 16.1%
Sweet Sixteen8.3% 9.2% 5.0%
Elite Eight3.1% 3.5% 1.8%
Final Four1.1% 1.3% 0.6%
Championship Game0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: California (Neutral) - 78.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 23 - 4
Quad 25 - 38 - 7
Quad 37 - 115 - 8
Quad 47 - 022 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 90   UC San Diego W 63-58 77%     1 - 0 +8.2 -4.3 +12.8
  Nov 18, 2024 4   Gonzaga L 67-80 27%     1 - 1 +4.2 +0.9 +3.1
  Nov 26, 2024 50   Creighton W 71-53 52%     2 - 1 +28.3 +9.0 +20.6
  Nov 27, 2024 23   Oregon L 68-78 38%     2 - 2 +4.0 +4.1 -0.4
  Nov 30, 2024 6   Houston W 73-70 OT 22%     3 - 2 +22.1 +18.2 +4.2
  Dec 04, 2024 257   @ Fresno St. W 84-62 89%     4 - 2 1 - 0 +19.8 +5.5 +12.1
  Dec 07, 2024 317   San Diego W 74-57 97%     5 - 2 +5.2 -5.2 +9.6
  Dec 11, 2024 175   California Baptist W 81-75 91%     6 - 2 +2.1 +15.6 -12.6
  Dec 21, 2024 118   California W 77-69 78%    
  Dec 28, 2024 54   Utah St. W 73-69 64%    
  Jan 04, 2025 57   @ Boise St. L 68-70 44%    
  Jan 08, 2025 272   Air Force W 74-54 97%    
  Jan 11, 2025 70   @ New Mexico L 75-76 49%    
  Jan 14, 2025 105   Colorado St. W 73-63 81%    
  Jan 18, 2025 108   UNLV W 73-63 82%    
  Jan 22, 2025 272   @ Air Force W 71-57 89%    
  Jan 25, 2025 52   @ Nevada L 66-68 42%    
  Jan 28, 2025 184   San Jose St. W 77-62 91%    
  Feb 01, 2025 163   Wyoming W 75-61 90%    
  Feb 08, 2025 105   @ Colorado St. W 70-66 62%    
  Feb 11, 2025 184   @ San Jose St. W 74-65 79%    
  Feb 15, 2025 57   Boise St. W 71-67 65%    
  Feb 18, 2025 257   Fresno St. W 81-62 96%    
  Feb 22, 2025 54   @ Utah St. L 70-72 43%    
  Feb 25, 2025 70   New Mexico W 79-73 69%    
  Mar 01, 2025 163   @ Wyoming W 72-64 77%    
  Mar 04, 2025 108   @ UNLV W 70-66 64%    
  Mar 08, 2025 52   Nevada W 69-65 63%    
Projected Record 20 - 8 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 4.1 8.8 9.6 6.8 2.9 0.7 33.8 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 5.5 8.5 5.3 1.3 0.1 21.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.0 4.9 6.8 3.2 0.4 0.0 16.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 3.9 4.9 1.9 0.2 12.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.7 3.4 1.1 0.1 8.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 1.7 0.6 0.0 4.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 3.3 5.7 9.0 12.0 15.2 16.0 14.5 10.9 6.9 2.9 0.7 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
19-1 100.0% 2.9    2.9 0.0
18-2 98.5% 6.8    6.3 0.4
17-3 87.7% 9.6    7.3 2.1 0.1
16-4 60.8% 8.8    4.5 3.7 0.7 0.0
15-5 25.7% 4.1    1.0 2.0 0.9 0.1 0.0
14-6 5.6% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 33.8% 33.8 22.9 8.5 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.7% 99.7% 59.7% 40.0% 2.8 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.3%
19-1 2.9% 99.4% 51.4% 48.0% 4.3 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.7%
18-2 6.9% 97.4% 43.1% 54.3% 6.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.2 95.4%
17-3 10.9% 90.9% 36.7% 54.2% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.7 1.8 2.2 1.6 0.5 0.0 1.0 85.6%
16-4 14.5% 78.0% 30.6% 47.4% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 2.7 3.5 2.3 0.1 3.2 68.3%
15-5 16.0% 59.8% 25.4% 34.4% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.1 4.1 0.2 6.4 46.1%
14-6 15.2% 40.6% 19.8% 20.8% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.6 3.7 0.4 9.0 25.9%
13-7 12.0% 25.5% 14.6% 10.9% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.1 0.3 9.0 12.8%
12-8 9.0% 15.3% 11.1% 4.2% 11.1 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.3 7.6 4.8%
11-9 5.7% 9.8% 8.4% 1.4% 11.3 0.0 0.4 0.2 5.1 1.5%
10-10 3.3% 6.3% 6.2% 0.1% 11.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.1 0.1%
9-11 1.7% 4.4% 4.4% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7
8-12 0.8% 4.2% 4.2% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.8
7-13 0.3% 4.6% 4.6% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 52.6% 23.9% 28.6% 8.8 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.9 2.4 3.4 3.9 5.0 7.6 10.7 14.3 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 47.4 37.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 2.1 33.5 33.0 22.0 10.5 1.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 3.0 7.7 25.0 32.7 30.8 1.9 1.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 4.0 2.1 8.3 29.2 22.9 27.1 10.4