San Diego St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.0#52
Expected Predictive Rating+6.3#96
Pace69.3#190
Improvement-0.3#210

Offense
Total Offense+5.6#60
First Shot+5.3#48
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#160
Layup/Dunks+4.1#59
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#163
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#130
Freethrows-0.6#212
Improvement+0.8#112

Defense
Total Defense+4.4#61
First Shot+1.4#130
After Offensive Rebounds+3.0#30
Layups/Dunks+2.2#98
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#71
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#313
Freethrows+1.6#95
Improvement-1.1#288
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.7% 1.9% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 31.6% 32.5% 20.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 12.3% 12.8% 6.6%
Average Seed 10.0 10.0 10.7
.500 or above 94.0% 95.1% 80.5%
.500 or above in Conference 93.6% 94.1% 87.6%
Conference Champion 29.8% 30.6% 19.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four4.7% 4.8% 3.4%
First Round29.3% 30.1% 18.3%
Second Round12.4% 12.9% 6.5%
Sweet Sixteen3.0% 3.2% 1.6%
Elite Eight1.0% 1.1% 0.3%
Final Four0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lamar (Home) - 92.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 5
Quad 25 - 37 - 8
Quad 38 - 215 - 10
Quad 46 - 120 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 286 Long Beach St. W 77-45 96%     1 - 0 +22.2 -2.1 +23.8
  Sun, Nov 9 167 Idaho St. W 73-57 90%     2 - 0 +12.1 +8.9 +5.3
  Tue, Nov 18 146 Troy L 107-108 2OT 87%     2 - 1 -3.2 +10.5 -13.4
  Mon, Nov 24 1 Michigan L 54-94 8%     2 - 2 -13.9 -8.4 -2.6
  Tue, Nov 25 80 Oregon W 97-80 61%     3 - 2 +24.2 +26.9 -2.8
  Wed, Nov 26 28 Baylor L 81-91 36%     3 - 3 +3.8 +10.9 -7.0
  Wed, Dec 3 90 Utah Valley W 77-66 76%     4 - 3 +13.7 +6.7 +6.9
  Wed, Dec 10 195 Lamar W 76-61 93%    
  Wed, Dec 17 332 Air Force W 81-58 99%    
  Sat, Dec 20 9 Arizona L 73-82 20%    
  Tue, Dec 30 185 @San Jose St. W 76-67 79%    
  Sat, Jan 3 59 Boise St. W 73-69 63%    
  Tue, Jan 6 105 @Nevada W 75-72 60%    
  Sat, Jan 10 179 Fresno St. W 83-69 90%    
  Wed, Jan 14 106 @Wyoming W 76-73 60%    
  Sat, Jan 17 103 New Mexico W 82-74 78%    
  Wed, Jan 21 94 @Grand Canyon W 74-72 57%    
  Sat, Jan 24 131 @UNLV W 83-78 68%    
  Wed, Jan 28 74 Colorado St. W 76-71 70%    
  Sat, Jan 31 51 @Utah St. L 73-77 38%    
  Tue, Feb 3 106 Wyoming W 79-70 79%    
  Sat, Feb 7 332 @Air Force W 78-61 94%    
  Sat, Feb 14 105 Nevada W 78-69 78%    
  Tue, Feb 17 94 Grand Canyon W 77-69 76%    
  Sat, Feb 21 74 @Colorado St. L 73-74 48%    
  Wed, Feb 25 51 Utah St. W 76-74 59%    
  Sat, Feb 28 103 @New Mexico W 79-77 58%    
  Tue, Mar 3 59 @Boise St. L 70-72 43%    
  Fri, Mar 6 131 UNLV W 86-75 83%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.5 5.1 8.0 7.7 4.8 2.0 0.5 29.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.1 6.8 7.0 3.9 0.9 0.1 20.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.8 5.7 5.3 1.7 0.2 14.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 4.7 4.1 0.9 0.1 11.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.5 3.0 0.7 0.1 8.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.3 2.6 0.7 0.0 6.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.1 0.6 0.0 4.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 0.5 0.0 2.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.8 3.1 5.9 8.0 10.4 12.9 14.5 13.9 12.0 8.5 4.9 2.0 0.5 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
19-1 100.0% 2.0    2.0 0.0
18-2 98.6% 4.8    4.4 0.4
17-3 89.8% 7.7    6.2 1.4 0.1
16-4 66.3% 8.0    4.6 3.0 0.4 0.0
15-5 36.7% 5.1    1.9 2.3 0.9 0.1
14-6 10.2% 1.5    0.3 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0
13-7 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 29.8% 29.8 19.9 7.7 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.5% 98.7% 59.2% 39.5% 5.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 96.9%
19-1 2.0% 92.5% 53.4% 39.1% 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 83.9%
18-2 4.9% 82.5% 44.5% 37.9% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.0 0.9 68.4%
17-3 8.5% 68.5% 39.0% 29.5% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.9 1.6 0.0 2.7 48.4%
16-4 12.0% 49.9% 33.2% 16.6% 10.3 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.9 3.0 0.1 6.0 24.9%
15-5 13.9% 34.9% 25.4% 9.5% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.2 0.2 9.1 12.7%
14-6 14.5% 26.3% 21.5% 4.9% 11.0 0.0 0.5 2.8 0.5 10.7 6.2%
13-7 12.9% 16.6% 15.2% 1.4% 11.2 0.1 1.5 0.5 0.0 10.7 1.7%
12-8 10.4% 12.2% 11.9% 0.4% 11.4 0.0 0.8 0.5 0.0 9.1 0.4%
11-9 8.0% 9.1% 9.1% 0.0% 11.5 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 7.3 0.0%
10-10 5.9% 5.7% 5.6% 0.1% 11.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 5.5 0.1%
9-11 3.1% 3.8% 3.8% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.0
8-12 1.8% 3.9% 3.9% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7
7-13 0.9% 0.7% 0.7% 15.0 0.0 0.9
6-14 0.4% 0.4
5-15 0.1% 5.1% 5.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 31.6% 22.0% 9.6% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.2 2.0 3.4 6.7 14.0 2.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 68.4 12.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 3.0 5.1 28.2 41.0 15.4 10.3