Utah St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +14.3 35
Expected Predictive Rating +15.7 31
Pace 69.1 168
Improvement +0.9 149

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense A- #32 B+ A B- C+ A-
Defense B #44 B+ C A- C B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% 17 63% 67 +7.2 10
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% 336 38% 175 -2.7 309
Three Pointers 41% 175 37% 62 +2.0 110
1st FG Attempt 1.14 39 +6.5 31
Second Chance 37.0% 29 1.22 15 0.45 13
Turnovers 15.3% 85
Freethrows 0.32 148 72% 200 0.23 147
Total Offense +8.6 32

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 298 52% 42 +4.4 46
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 94 35% 77 -0.2 205
Three Pointers 42% 134 32% 91 +0.6 160
1st FG Attempt 0.92 45 +4.9 45
Second Chance 30.2% 171 1.01 156 0.31 162
Turnovers 21.3% 15
Freethrows 0.31 206 72% 174 0.22 205
Total Defense +5.7 44

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +1.6 17 -0.6 78
Shot Type Accuracy +4.1 61 -4.1 41
Possession Length 16.2 72 18.1 300
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.26 17 0.14 76
Improvement +2.2 #74 -1.3 #265

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 4% 5% 1%
Top 6 Seed 27% 29% 14%
NCAA Tourney Bid 95% 96% 92%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 93% 93% 88%
Average Seed 7.4 7.3 8.0
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 70% 71% 67%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four2% 2% 4%
First Round95% 95% 90%
Second Round54% 55% 47%
Sweet Sixteen15% 15% 10%
Elite Eight5% 5% 3%
Final Four1% 2% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Memphis (Home) - 84.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 01 - 0
Quad 1b4 - 24 - 3
Quad 29 - 213 - 4
Quad 38 - 122 - 6
Quad 45 - 027 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 51 Virginia Commonwealth W 80 - 77 63% +8  88% 1 - 0 B+ +14 C+ +2 C A+ F A +12 B- A A+
 Wed, Nov 12 232 Weber St. W 83 - 73 96% +4  68% 2 - 0 C+ +3 C +1 F A- A+ C+ +2 A+ F B-
 Sat, Nov 15 239 UTEP W 75 - 51 97% +12  93% 3 - 0 A- +17 C -0 C+ B+ F A+ +18 A+ C A+
 Fri, Nov 21 174 Tulane W 96 - 75 91% +6  62% 4 - 0 A +20 A+ +22 A+ A- B+ C -2 D- C A-
 Sun, Nov 23 111 Davidson W 94 - 60 84% +17  100% 5 - 0 A+ +38 A+ +20 A+ B+ D+ A+ +18 A+ C+ A+
 Sat, Nov 29 162 Montana St. W 84 - 81 OT 94% +3  80% 6 - 0 C -0 C- -1 C C B+ C +0 B- C+ A
 Thu, Dec 4 62 @South Florida L 61 - 74 60% -15  0% 6 - 1 C -1 F -10 F+ D- C- A- +9 C- A A+
 Sun, Dec 7 168 @Charlotte W 79 - 53 86% +11  71% 7 - 1 A+ +28 B+ +9 B D A+ A+ +22 A+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 94 Illinois St. W 83 - 78 80% +6  88% 8 - 1 B +10 A+ +15 A+ A+ F D+ -5 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 103 Colorado St. W 100 - 58 88% +24  98% 9 - 1 1 - 0 A+ +44 A+ +33 A+ A+ C A+ +15 A+ B- A
 Tue, Dec 30 140 @Fresno St. W 72 - 63 83% +7  87% 10 - 1 2 - 0 B+ +13 D -4 B D- F A+ +17 A A+ A
 Sat, Jan 3 236 San Jose St. W 96 - 78 97% +1  37% 11 - 1 3 - 0 B +11 A+ +24 A+ A+ A+ F -12 F C+ C
 Tue, Jan 6 349 @Air Force W 99 - 62 98% +20  99% 12 - 1 4 - 0 A+ +27 A+ +27 B- A+ A B- +2 B F+ D+
 Sat, Jan 10 58 @Boise St. W 93 - 68 57% +19  98% 13 - 1 5 - 0 A+ +37 A+ +29 A A+ A- A +10 A+ F+ B+
 Wed, Jan 14 66 Nevada W 71 - 62 80% +3  78% 14 - 1 6 - 0 B+ +14 C+ +2 B+ D+ C+ A+ +13 B- A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 68 @Grand Canyon L 74 - 84 62% -5  2% 14 - 2 6 - 1 C +1 A +12 D+ A+ A+ F -12 F D+ C
 Tue, Jan 20 124 UNLV L 76 - 86 91% +3  66% 14 - 3 6 - 2 D -11 C +0 D B- A+ F -11 C- F C+
 Fri, Jan 23 103 @Colorado St. W 65 - 61 74% -4  18% 15 - 3 7 - 2 B+ +12 C- -1 C+ C- C- A+ +13 C F A+
 Wed, Jan 28 106 Wyoming W 94 - 62 88% +22  96% 16 - 3 8 - 2 A+ +33 A+ +24 A+ A+ A+ A +11 A+ D+ B+
 Sat, Jan 31 43 San Diego St. W 71 - 66 69% -2  22% 17 - 3 9 - 2 B+ +14 C- -2 C C D A+ +16 A A+ C
 Wed, Feb 4 49 @New Mexico W 86 - 66 51% +8  80% 18 - 3 10 - 2 A+ +34 A+ +14 A A- B+ A+ +19 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Feb 7 106 @Wyoming W 85 - 83 75% +3  69% 19 - 3 11 - 2 B +9 A+ +15 A+ F C+ D -6 D+ B+ F
 Tue, Feb 10 140 Fresno St. W 91 - 78 92% +10  79% 20 - 3 12 - 2 B+ +11 A+ +17 A- A+ A+ D -6 A- F F+
 Sat, Feb 14 86 Memphis W 80 - 69 85%
 Wed, Feb 18 58 Boise St. W 79 - 71 78%
 Sat, Feb 21 66 @Nevada W 76 - 73 61%
 Wed, Feb 25 43 @San Diego St. L 73 - 74 47%
 Sat, Feb 28 68 Grand Canyon W 77 - 68 80%
 Tue, Mar 3 124 @UNLV W 85 - 76 81%
 Sat, Mar 7 49 New Mexico W 82 - 76 71%
Totals 25 - 5 16 - 4 +14 A- +9 B+ A B- B +6 B+ C A-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings A- B C B B 46% 12% 41% A- B+ B+ A- A B- C+ C C+ B B+ B- B- B 35% 23% 42% B- B+ C C C A- C C C
1.21 63% 38% 37% +4 +2 1.14 37% 1.2 .45 15% .32 72% .23 1.00 52% 35% 32% -4 -1 0.92 30% 1.0 .31 21% .31 72% .23
Nov
7		 Virginia Commonwealth C+ D- F A+ D+ 64% 13% 23% A+ C A A+ A+ F A+ D+ A+ A B D+ D+ C+ 31% 14% 55% B+ B- D+ A+ A A+ F A+ C
1.05 47% 17% 45% -6 +3 0.96 39% 1.4 .56 24% .45 69% .31 1.01 53% 43% 37% +2 0 1.06 38% 0.7 .27 25% .49 57% .28
Nov
12		 Weber St. C A D F F 42% 16% 42% C F C A+ A- A+ A+ B A+ C+ A+ D+ A+ A+ 37% 16% 47% B A+ C- F F B- F D- F
1.17 74% 33% 13% -7 +1 0.89 31% 1.5 .46 8% .45 76% .34 1.03 39% 38% 26% -13 0 0.78 33% 1.6 .54 18% .48 75% .36
Nov
15		 UTEP C A+ C F C 39% 12% 49% B+ C+ A+ D B+ F A+ F A+ A+ F+ A+ A+ A+ 36% 32% 32% C- A+ B D- C A+ F A+ C
1.10 75% 40% 25% 0 +1 1.05 47% 0.9 .43 25% .71 64% .45 0.75 69% 14% 14% -13 -2 0.73 23% 1.1 .26 24% .36 53% .19
Nov
21		 Tulane A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 34% 24% 42% D+ A+ C+ A A- B+ C- D+ D+ C A+ A F F 20% 22% 57% A D- A- F C A- B B B+
1.40 76% 67% 52% +25 -1 1.50 36% 1.2 .44 15% .31 67% .20 1.09 30% 27% 50% +6 -2 1.10 16% 1.6 .25 19% .34 74% .25
Nov
23		 Davidson A+ A+ F A+ A+ 40% 13% 47% A A+ C A+ B+ D+ D- A+ B- A+ F A+ A A+ 17% 28% 54% A+ A+ D+ B+ C+ A+ D B- D+
1.34 86% 29% 44% +17 +1 1.38 29% 1.3 .38 20% .25 86% .21 0.85 75% 31% 28% -4 -3 0.89 33% 0.9 .31 27% .33 65% .21
Nov
29		 Montana St. C- F A+ B C- 54% 7% 39% A C D- A+ C B+ A+ F+ A- C A- D C C+ 22% 22% 55% C+ B- D- A- C+ A D F F
1.08 43% 75% 36% -4 +3 1.00 24% 1.3 .32 13% .39 69% .27 1.05 46% 46% 34% 0 -1 0.98 33% 0.9 .29 21% .29 89% .26
Dec
4		 South Florida F F D D- F 37% 24% 39% C+ F+ C- F D- C- D- D+ D- A- A- F D+ C 48% 7% 45% C- C- A+ B- A A+ F C- F
0.86 42% 33% 30% -9 0 0.82 28% 0.8 .21 20% .26 67% .18 1.05 48% 67% 35% -2 +2 1.02 29% 1.1 .32 24% .60 75% .45
Dec
7		 Charlotte B+ A+ F F C+ 48% 10% 42% A B C F D A+ C A+ B+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 20% 20% 60% A+ A+ D- F F A+ F A+ C
1.22 79% 20% 24% +2 +2 1.10 30% 0.9 .27 9% .32 84% .27 0.82 50% 25% 21% -16 -1 0.68 39% 1.3 .50 29% .44 55% .24
Dec
13		 Illinois St. A+ A F A+ A+ 54% 13% 33% A+ A+ A+ D A+ F C- A+ C+ D+ F D B F 39% 32% 30% B+ F D- F F A+ D+ F F+
1.24 69% 17% 44% +8 +2 1.23 63% 0.8 .53 24% .29 80% .24 1.17 88% 43% 31% +12 -1 1.23 33% 1.7 .57 25% .32 81% .26
Dec
20		 Colorado St. A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 50% 10% 40% A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ C A+ F A A+ A+ C A A+ 32% 20% 49% B A+ B+ C- B- A F+ D+ F+
1.57 67% 60% 58% +21 +2 1.48 59% 1.2 .70 16% .45 58% .26 0.91 38% 38% 30% -9 0 0.83 27% 1.1 .30 24% .39 79% .31
Dec
30		 Fresno St. D B- D+ D B- 51% 12% 37% A B C+ F D- F A+ D A A+ C B- A+ A 33% 24% 43% A- A B+ A+ A+ A F F+ F
0.95 64% 33% 28% -1 +2 1.04 29% 0.7 .21 26% .39 68% .27 0.83 59% 33% 23% -8 -1 0.84 24% 0.2 .05 24% .38 82% .31
Jan
3		 San Jose St. A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 57% 9% 35% A A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A- A+ F C A F F+ 38% 23% 38% F+ F D- A C+ C F F F
1.49 69% 50% 44% +13 +3 1.33 42% 1.7 .71 12% .46 81% .37 1.21 56% 27% 50% +6 0 1.13 38% 0.8 .31 16% .40 82% .33
Jan
6		 Air Force A+ C B- B+ C+ 43% 13% 43% B+ B- A+ A+ A+ A D+ F+ D B- C A+ C B- 41% 20% 39% B- B C+ F F+ D+ D- F F
1.50 61% 43% 39% +5 +1 1.15 44% 2.2 .97 11% .29 65% .19 0.94 58% 11% 33% -6 0 0.91 21% 1.6 .33 20% .36 74% .26
Jan
10		 Boise St. A+ B+ C B+ A- 43% 11% 46% A+ A A+ A+ A+ A- A A A+ A A+ F A A+ 37% 14% 49% C+ A+ F+ D+ F+ B+ F C+ F
1.42 65% 40% 38% +6 +2 1.17 41% 2.2 .90 12% .37 76% .28 1.04 38% 50% 29% -10 +1 0.84 40% 1.1 .46 18% .47 76% .36
Jan
14		 Nevada C+ B D C B 45% 14% 41% B+ B+ D+ C- D+ C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ F C+ 44% 33% 23% B- B- D+ A+ A+ A+ B C B
1.08 60% 33% 33% 0 +1 1.05 23% 1.1 .27 17% .44 83% .37 0.94 43% 25% 64% -1 -1 0.98 37% 0.2 .07 21% .33 76% .25
Jan
17		 Grand Canyon A F A+ F D+ 35% 25% 40% C D+ A+ C- A+ A+ A- C+ A- F D+ F F F 43% 18% 39% C- F D- C+ D+ C F A- F
1.12 33% 62% 24% -9 -1 0.83 47% 1.0 .49 11% .39 74% .29 1.28 63% 50% 41% +9 +1 1.20 38% 1.0 .38 17% .60 70% .42
Jan
20		 UNLV C C F F F+ 50% 6% 44% A+ D B- C+ B- A+ A+ F C+ F A D+ F C- 51% 23% 26% C- C- F F F C+ F+ F F
1.11 56% 0% 27% -8 +3 0.92 33% 1.2 .38 12% .51 55% .28 1.26 46% 45% 58% +5 +1 1.13 42% 1.1 .45 18% .44 84% .37
Jan
23		 Colorado St. C- A- A+ F B- 32% 30% 38% D C+ D- A- C- C- F A+ F A+ F C+ F D 16% 37% 47% A+ C B- F F A+ A- A- A
1.05 69% 53% 26% +4 -2 1.06 21% 1.3 .28 16% .10 80% .08 0.98 83% 36% 44% +11 -4 1.16 30% 1.7 .52 34% .24 70% .17
Jan
28		 Wyoming A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ 35% 7% 58% C+ A+ B A+ A+ A+ D C+ D+ A A+ A A+ A+ 36% 13% 51% C+ A+ C- D D+ B+ C A+ B
1.43 74% 75% 38% +11 +1 1.27 31% 1.6 .48 8% .35 71% .25 0.94 41% 33% 25% -13 +1 0.77 37% 1.1 .40 20% .34 67% .23
Jan
31		 San Diego St. C- D A+ F D 50% 7% 43% A+ C A F C D A+ F C+ A+ A+ F A+ A+ 38% 19% 42% F+ A A+ A+ A+ C B- D+ C+
0.94 50% 50% 25% -9 +3 0.89 38% 0.6 .23 24% .40 57% .23 0.88 45% 60% 27% -5 0 0.92 16% 0.7 .11 17% .29 78% .22
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 New Mexico A+ B- A+ C+ A 35% 12% 53% A- A B A- A- B+ A D- B+ A+ C- A+ A+ A+ 53% 19% 28% C A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F B+ F
1.18 61% 67% 33% +4 +1 1.12 32% 1.2 .39 16% .36 68% .25 0.91 60% 22% 23% -6 +1 0.91 21% 0.3 .06 21% .52 70% .36
Feb
7		 Wyoming A+ A+ F A+ A+ 63% 9% 28% A A+ F F F C+ A+ B- A+ D A F F C- 46% 11% 43% D+ D+ A C- B+ F A- F B-
1.26 78% 25% 50% +18 +3 1.44 15% 0.7 .10 16% .51 72% .37 1.23 46% 67% 42% +3 +2 1.11 29% 1.0 .29 10% .26 88% .23
Feb
10		 Fresno St. A+ C F A B+ 37% 6% 57% A- A- B- A+ A+ A+ B A- A- D D A+ B B+ 33% 23% 44% A- A- F F+ F F+ F D+ F
1.30 60% 0% 39% +3 +2 1.11 31% 2.0 .63 13% .31 79% .25 1.11 65% 17% 30% -5 -1 0.90 38% 1.1 .43 14% .38 78% .30



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 6.2 23.4 29.0 11.7 70.4 1st
2nd 0.1 2.6 11.6 8.3 1.1 23.6 2nd
3rd 0.4 3.2 1.0 4.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 0.5 1.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.1 1.4 6.4 18.7 31.6 30.1 11.7 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 11.7    11.7
17-3 96.2% 29.0    24.3 4.7
16-4 73.9% 23.4    12.0 10.8 0.6
15-5 33.0% 6.2    0.8 3.1 2.0 0.4
14-6 3.3% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9
10-10
Total 70.4% 70.4 48.7 18.6 2.6 0.5 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 11.7% 99.7% 48.6% 51.1% 5.2 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.4 2.4 3.2 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 99.3%
17-3 30.1% 99.2% 41.8% 57.4% 6.8 0.0 0.4 2.8 8.9 9.4 5.9 2.1 0.3 0.0 0.2 98.7%
16-4 31.6% 96.0% 34.7% 61.3% 7.8 0.0 0.5 3.6 7.9 9.6 6.2 2.3 0.2 1.3 93.9%
15-5 18.7% 91.1% 31.1% 60.1% 8.6 0.0 0.7 2.3 4.9 5.4 2.9 0.8 1.7 87.1%
14-6 6.4% 84.1% 23.6% 60.5% 9.2 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.8 1.6 0.7 1.0 79.2%
13-7 1.4% 69.3% 15.0% 54.3% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 63.9%
12-8 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 95.3% 36.8% 58.6% 7.4 4.7 92.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.0% 100.0% 4.0 0.4 3.2 26.4 42.1 21.6 5.8 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.8% 99.4% 5.8 0.6 1.7 6.6 26.5 44.8 16.6 2.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.2% 99.1% 6.1 0.9 4.1 14.9 50.5 23.9 4.5 0.5