Utah St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.6#51
Expected Predictive Rating+13.4#42
Pace69.9#174
Improvement-2.5#326

Offense
Total Offense+5.9#57
First Shot+4.6#58
After Offensive Rebound+1.3#111
Layup/Dunks+4.7#42
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#255
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#128
Freethrows-0.4#207
Improvement-1.8#321

Defense
Total Defense+4.7#54
First Shot+5.6#36
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#256
Layups/Dunks+9.6#8
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#256
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#282
Freethrows-0.3#200
Improvement-0.6#247
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.4% 1.7% 0.3%
Top 6 Seed 4.6% 5.4% 1.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 43.6% 46.4% 30.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 24.7% 27.3% 13.6%
Average Seed 9.4 9.3 10.1
.500 or above 98.7% 99.3% 96.0%
.500 or above in Conference 94.3% 95.3% 90.0%
Conference Champion 33.7% 36.0% 23.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four8.0% 8.5% 5.8%
First Round39.7% 42.4% 27.6%
Second Round17.8% 19.4% 10.7%
Sweet Sixteen4.9% 5.4% 2.6%
Elite Eight1.6% 1.8% 0.7%
Final Four0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Charlotte (Away) - 81.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 2
Quad 26 - 47 - 6
Quad 311 - 218 - 8
Quad 46 - 024 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 43 Virginia Commonwealth W 80-77 46%     1 - 0 +14.6 +8.0 +6.3
  Wed, Nov 12 192 Weber St. W 83-73 92%     2 - 0 +4.8 +5.5 -0.8
  Sat, Nov 15 241 UTEP W 75-51 94%     3 - 0 +16.5 +3.6 +13.6
  Fri, Nov 21 172 Tulane W 96-75 86%     4 - 0 +19.9 +21.2 -0.9
  Sun, Nov 23 137 Davidson W 94-60 80%     5 - 0 +35.6 +21.2 +14.2
  Sat, Nov 29 152 Montana St. W 84-81 OT 89%     6 - 0 +0.1 +1.9 -2.1
  Thu, Dec 4 79 @South Florida L 61-74 51%     6 - 1 -2.7 -7.5 +4.9
  Sun, Dec 7 186 @Charlotte W 76-67 82%    
  Sat, Dec 13 101 Illinois St. W 77-71 71%    
  Sat, Dec 20 74 Colorado St. W 77-71 72%    
  Tue, Dec 30 179 @Fresno St. W 81-72 80%    
  Sat, Jan 3 185 San Jose St. W 80-65 92%    
  Tue, Jan 6 332 @Air Force W 78-60 95%    
  Sat, Jan 10 59 @Boise St. L 70-72 44%    
  Wed, Jan 14 105 Nevada W 78-69 81%    
  Sat, Jan 17 94 @Grand Canyon W 74-72 58%    
  Tue, Jan 20 131 UNLV W 87-75 85%    
  Fri, Jan 23 74 @Colorado St. L 73-74 50%    
  Wed, Jan 28 106 Wyoming W 79-70 80%    
  Sat, Jan 31 52 San Diego St. W 77-73 62%    
  Wed, Feb 4 103 @New Mexico W 80-77 60%    
  Sat, Feb 7 106 @Wyoming W 76-73 62%    
  Tue, Feb 10 179 Fresno St. W 84-69 91%    
  Sat, Feb 14 75 Memphis W 79-73 70%    
  Wed, Feb 18 59 Boise St. W 73-69 65%    
  Sat, Feb 21 105 @Nevada W 75-72 62%    
  Wed, Feb 25 52 @San Diego St. L 74-76 41%    
  Sat, Feb 28 94 Grand Canyon W 77-69 77%    
  Tue, Mar 3 131 @UNLV W 84-78 69%    
  Sat, Mar 7 103 New Mexico W 83-74 79%    
Projected Record 22 - 8 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.6 5.3 9.0 8.3 6.1 2.6 0.6 33.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.2 6.6 7.1 3.9 1.1 0.1 21.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.7 5.8 5.0 1.7 0.3 0.0 14.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 4.4 3.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 10.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 2.9 2.7 0.7 0.0 7.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.1 2.1 0.6 0.0 5.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.6 0.5 0.0 3.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.0 2.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.7 5.0 6.9 9.6 12.6 14.1 14.1 13.1 9.4 6.2 2.6 0.6 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
19-1 100.0% 2.6    2.6 0.0
18-2 98.1% 6.1    5.7 0.4
17-3 88.3% 8.3    6.8 1.4 0.1
16-4 68.6% 9.0    5.5 3.2 0.4 0.0
15-5 37.6% 5.3    2.1 2.3 0.8 0.1
14-6 11.2% 1.6    0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0
13-7 1.4% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 33.7% 33.7 23.7 7.9 1.7 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.6% 100.0% 61.7% 38.3% 4.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 2.6% 96.5% 54.7% 41.8% 5.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 92.2%
18-2 6.2% 91.0% 46.6% 44.4% 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.6 83.1%
17-3 9.4% 79.2% 39.3% 39.9% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.3 1.8 2.1 1.1 0.0 2.0 65.7%
16-4 13.1% 66.6% 35.0% 31.6% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 3.0 2.9 0.0 4.4 48.6%
15-5 14.1% 52.7% 28.9% 23.8% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.6 3.6 0.2 6.7 33.5%
14-6 14.1% 35.8% 22.0% 13.7% 10.7 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.4 0.2 9.1 17.6%
13-7 12.6% 25.5% 18.0% 7.5% 10.9 0.1 0.4 2.5 0.3 0.0 9.4 9.1%
12-8 9.6% 16.8% 15.2% 1.7% 11.1 0.0 0.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 8.0 2.0%
11-9 6.9% 10.0% 9.1% 0.9% 11.3 0.0 0.5 0.2 6.2 1.0%
10-10 5.0% 7.5% 7.4% 0.1% 11.5 0.2 0.2 0.0 4.6 0.1%
9-11 2.7% 6.0% 6.0% 12.0 0.0 0.2 2.6
8-12 1.6% 2.5% 2.5% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6
7-13 0.8% 1.7% 1.7% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.8
6-14 0.3% 2.2% 2.2% 13.0 0.0 0.3
5-15 0.2% 0.2
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 43.6% 25.1% 18.5% 9.4 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.2 2.0 2.8 3.4 5.5 10.1 15.6 1.4 0.1 0.0 56.4 24.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 3.1 6.5 27.3 28.6 28.6 6.5 2.6