Utah St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.9#54
Expected Predictive Rating+14.0#37
Pace72.0#94
Improvement-3.3#339

Offense
Total Offense+5.4#50
First Shot+4.3#66
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#123
Layup/Dunks+6.2#19
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#295
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#265
Freethrows+2.9#43
Improvement-2.8#345

Defense
Total Defense+4.5#63
First Shot+4.2#64
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#147
Layups/Dunks+5.7#32
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#331
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#311
Freethrows+4.3#3
Improvement-0.6#227
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 1.3% 2.7% 0.6%
Top 6 Seed 4.1% 7.8% 2.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 40.5% 53.6% 33.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 26.1% 39.5% 19.2%
Average Seed 9.4 9.0 9.9
.500 or above 99.7% 100.0% 99.5%
.500 or above in Conference 95.6% 97.4% 94.6%
Conference Champion 25.3% 30.7% 22.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four8.4% 10.0% 7.6%
First Round36.1% 48.3% 29.3%
Second Round16.5% 24.0% 12.3%
Sweet Sixteen4.8% 7.6% 3.3%
Elite Eight1.7% 2.8% 1.1%
Final Four0.6% 1.1% 0.4%
Championship Game0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Mary's (Away) - 35.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b2 - 22 - 3
Quad 26 - 38 - 6
Quad 36 - 214 - 8
Quad 49 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 339   Alcorn St. W 101-46 98%     1 - 0 +40.7 +21.1 +19.7
  Nov 09, 2024 191   Charlotte W 103-74 90%     2 - 0 +24.6 +27.1 -2.3
  Nov 18, 2024 213   Montana W 95-83 92%     3 - 0 +6.5 +11.8 -6.1
  Nov 22, 2024 44   Iowa W 77-69 46%     4 - 0 +18.9 -0.2 +18.4
  Nov 28, 2024 89   St. Bonaventure W 72-67 63%     5 - 0 +11.4 +6.0 +5.5
  Nov 29, 2024 72   North Texas W 61-57 59%     6 - 0 +11.6 +2.6 +9.5
  Dec 04, 2024 163   Wyoming W 70-67 89%     7 - 0 1 - 0 -0.3 +7.7 -7.5
  Dec 07, 2024 289   Utah Tech W 92-62 96%     8 - 0 +20.2 +10.1 +8.9
  Dec 14, 2024 179   South Florida W 88-67 90%     9 - 0 +17.0 +11.4 +5.3
  Dec 17, 2024 90   UC San Diego L 73-75 74%     9 - 1 +1.2 -0.1 +1.4
  Dec 22, 2024 42   @ St. Mary's L 67-71 36%    
  Dec 28, 2024 43   @ San Diego St. L 69-73 36%    
  Dec 31, 2024 52   @ Nevada L 70-73 38%    
  Jan 04, 2025 257   Fresno St. W 86-68 95%    
  Jan 07, 2025 184   @ San Jose St. W 78-70 77%    
  Jan 11, 2025 57   Boise St. W 75-72 62%    
  Jan 15, 2025 108   @ UNLV W 74-71 60%    
  Jan 22, 2025 52   Nevada W 73-70 60%    
  Jan 25, 2025 272   @ Air Force W 75-62 88%    
  Jan 29, 2025 108   UNLV W 77-68 79%    
  Feb 01, 2025 70   New Mexico W 84-79 67%    
  Feb 04, 2025 163   @ Wyoming W 76-69 74%    
  Feb 07, 2025 257   @ Fresno St. W 83-71 87%    
  Feb 11, 2025 105   Colorado St. W 77-68 79%    
  Feb 16, 2025 70   @ New Mexico L 81-82 46%    
  Feb 19, 2025 184   San Jose St. W 81-67 90%    
  Feb 22, 2025 43   San Diego St. W 72-70 57%    
  Feb 26, 2025 57   @ Boise St. L 72-75 41%    
  Mar 01, 2025 105   @ Colorado St. W 74-71 59%    
  Mar 08, 2025 272   Air Force W 78-59 95%    
Projected Record 22 - 8 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 3.6 7.5 7.2 4.3 1.5 0.4 25.3 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 5.3 8.4 4.9 1.2 0.1 21.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.4 5.6 7.5 3.1 0.4 0.0 18.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 4.9 5.9 2.1 0.1 14.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.5 4.0 1.3 0.1 10.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.3 2.2 0.7 0.0 6.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 3.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.5 4.8 7.4 11.1 14.1 15.7 15.2 12.8 8.4 4.4 1.5 0.4 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
19-1 100.0% 1.5    1.5 0.0
18-2 97.2% 4.3    4.0 0.3
17-3 85.5% 7.2    5.4 1.7 0.1
16-4 58.9% 7.5    3.7 3.2 0.6 0.0
15-5 23.6% 3.6    0.9 1.7 0.9 0.2 0.0
14-6 4.9% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 25.3% 25.3 15.9 7.1 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.4% 99.4% 54.5% 44.9% 3.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.8%
19-1 1.5% 98.1% 44.2% 53.9% 5.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 96.7%
18-2 4.4% 93.8% 39.4% 54.3% 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.3 89.7%
17-3 8.4% 85.0% 34.6% 50.4% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.7 1.6 0.8 0.0 1.3 77.1%
16-4 12.8% 69.3% 28.6% 40.7% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 2.8 2.5 0.1 3.9 57.0%
15-5 15.2% 50.8% 23.3% 27.5% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.4 3.8 0.2 7.5 35.8%
14-6 15.7% 34.0% 18.1% 16.0% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 3.3 0.4 10.3 19.5%
13-7 14.1% 21.4% 13.2% 8.2% 10.9 0.1 0.5 2.1 0.4 11.1 9.4%
12-8 11.1% 13.3% 9.9% 3.4% 11.1 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.3 0.0 9.6 3.8%
11-9 7.4% 8.0% 7.2% 0.8% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.2 6.8 0.8%
10-10 4.8% 5.2% 5.0% 0.2% 11.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.5 0.2%
9-11 2.5% 4.2% 4.2% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.4
8-12 1.1% 3.2% 3.2% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1
7-13 0.5% 1.2% 1.2% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.5
6-14 0.2% 0.2
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 40.5% 19.4% 21.1% 9.4 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.0 1.8 2.3 3.4 5.6 8.9 14.2 1.9 0.0 59.5 26.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 2.4 18.2 41.8 23.6 16.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 3.4 8.7 13.0 21.7 43.5 13.0