Utah St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.6#55
Expected Predictive Rating+13.7#38
Pace69.3#137
Improvement-3.8#322

Offense
Total Offense+9.9#16
First Shot+10.2#9
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#207
Layup/Dunks+9.7#2
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#296
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#201
Freethrows+3.2#31
Improvement+2.3#76

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#155
First Shot+1.6#121
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#258
Layups/Dunks+5.2#35
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#342
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.9#335
Freethrows+4.1#4
Improvement-6.2#360
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 68.6% 75.3% 51.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 61.7% 67.0% 51.5%
Average Seed 10.2 10.0 10.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four24.3% 21.9% 30.5%
First Round55.0% 62.9% 34.8%
Second Round18.1% 20.6% 11.6%
Sweet Sixteen3.1% 3.2% 2.7%
Elite Eight0.8% 0.8% 0.7%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 11 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 32 - 3
Quad 27 - 310 - 7
Quad 35 - 015 - 7
Quad 411 - 025 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 327   Alcorn St. W 101-46 97%     1 - 0 +42.4 +23.1 +19.4
  Nov 09, 2024 243   Charlotte W 103-74 94%     2 - 0 +21.7 +25.4 -3.6
  Nov 18, 2024 172   Montana W 95-83 90%     3 - 0 +8.6 +12.3 -4.5
  Nov 22, 2024 63   Iowa W 77-69 56%     4 - 0 +17.2 -2.6 +19.1
  Nov 28, 2024 110   St. Bonaventure W 72-67 75%     5 - 0 +8.7 +4.9 +3.9
  Nov 29, 2024 79   North Texas W 61-57 63%     6 - 0 +11.3 +0.3 +11.4
  Dec 04, 2024 176   Wyoming W 70-67 90%     7 - 0 1 - 0 -0.7 +7.9 -8.1
  Dec 07, 2024 290   Utah Tech W 92-62 96%     8 - 0 +19.8 +9.6 +9.1
  Dec 14, 2024 189   South Florida W 88-67 91%     9 - 0 +16.7 +13.6 +2.8
  Dec 17, 2024 47   UC San Diego L 73-75 58%     9 - 1 +6.6 +3.0 +3.6
  Dec 22, 2024 26   @ St. Mary's W 75-68 25%     10 - 1 +24.6 +16.9 +8.0
  Dec 28, 2024 54   @ San Diego St. W 67-66 39%     11 - 1 2 - 0 +14.5 +3.9 +10.6
  Dec 31, 2024 83   @ Nevada W 69-64 55%     12 - 1 3 - 0 +14.4 +7.6 +7.3
  Jan 04, 2025 258   Fresno St. W 89-83 95%     13 - 1 4 - 0 -2.0 +5.7 -8.2
  Jan 07, 2025 156   @ San Jose St. W 85-78 77%     14 - 1 5 - 0 +10.0 +19.3 -8.8
  Jan 11, 2025 52   Boise St. W 81-79 60%     15 - 1 6 - 0 +10.1 +27.7 -17.2
  Jan 15, 2025 92   @ UNLV L 62-65 59%     15 - 2 6 - 1 +5.3 +5.1 -0.2
  Jan 22, 2025 83   Nevada W 90-69 74%     16 - 2 7 - 1 +24.9 +26.2 +0.4
  Jan 25, 2025 300   @ Air Force W 87-58 92%     17 - 2 8 - 1 +23.8 +17.1 +8.2
  Jan 29, 2025 92   UNLV W 76-71 77%     18 - 2 9 - 1 +7.8 +6.9 +0.9
  Feb 01, 2025 41   New Mexico L 63-82 53%     18 - 3 9 - 2 -9.2 -6.3 -1.9
  Feb 04, 2025 176   @ Wyoming W 71-67 80%     19 - 3 10 - 2 +5.9 +3.4 +2.6
  Feb 07, 2025 258   @ Fresno St. W 89-81 89%     20 - 3 11 - 2 +5.5 +18.0 -12.4
  Feb 11, 2025 53   Colorado St. W 93-85 60%     21 - 3 12 - 2 +16.0 +25.9 -9.6
  Feb 16, 2025 41   @ New Mexico L 79-82 32%     21 - 4 12 - 3 +12.4 +17.7 -5.4
  Feb 19, 2025 156   San Jose St. W 105-57 89%     22 - 4 13 - 3 +45.5 +34.3 +13.2
  Feb 22, 2025 54   San Diego St. W 79-71 60%     23 - 4 14 - 3 +16.0 +21.6 -4.8
  Feb 26, 2025 52   @ Boise St. L 65-82 39%     23 - 5 14 - 4 -3.4 +2.6 -7.2
  Mar 01, 2025 53   @ Colorado St. L 66-93 39%     23 - 6 14 - 5 -13.5 +6.1 -22.6
  Mar 08, 2025 300   Air Force W 87-47 97%     24 - 6 15 - 5 +29.3 +26.1 +10.7
Projected Record 24 - 6 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 100.0 100.0 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 100.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0%
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 100.0% 68.6% 18.2% 50.4% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 3.2 11.3 24.6 27.9 1.2 31.4 61.7%
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 68.6% 18.2% 50.4% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 3.2 11.3 24.6 27.9 1.2 31.4 61.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 18.2% 100.0% 9.3 0.1 0.5 2.1 15.4 39.8 35.1 7.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 20.6% 76.5% 10.3 0.0 1.1 10.0 33.2 31.7 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 33.1% 61.0% 10.5 0.3 4.3 20.9 34.1 1.4
Lose Out 28.1% 51.5% 10.6 0.1 1.9 16.0 31.4 2.1