Illinois St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +6.4 #90
Expected Predictive Rating +4.0 #105
Pace 66.4 #255
Improvement +2.0 #97

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #100 B- C+ C+ C- C-
Defense #85 B B+ C C A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #272 1.31 #38 +0.8 #149
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #152 0.79 #127 +0.8 #128
Three Pointers 43% #144 1.04 #157 +1.5 #130
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #93 +3.1 #93
Freethrows 17.1 #204 69% #298 11.7 #231
Second Chance 29.6% #215 1.15 #57 0.34 #133
Turnovers 15.6% #128
Total Offense +3.0 #100

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #258 1.14 #159 +1.8 #117
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #30 0.65 #34 -1.2 #280
Three Pointers 37% #298 0.99 #139 +2.8 #79
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #74 +3.4 #74
Freethrows 18.2 #228 68% #22 12.3 #166
Second Chance 27.2% #62 0.97 #76 0.26 #55
Turnovers 16.5% #181
Total Defense +3.3 #85

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.8% #244 -2.1% #35
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 6.9% #76 -4.7% #88
Possession Length 18.3 #275 17.0 #130
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #316 0.15 #93
Improvement +1.1 #119 +0.9 #126

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.4% 26.3% 20.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.1 11.9 12.2
.500 or above 99.7% 100.0% 99.5%
.500 or above in Conference 97.0% 99.4% 95.6%
Conference Champion 19.0% 35.0% 9.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round22.4% 26.2% 20.3%
Second Round3.5% 4.6% 3.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 1.0% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Belmont (Away) - 36.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 22 - 32 - 5
Quad 310 - 512 - 10
Quad 49 - 121 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 196 @Ohio L 68 - 72 71% -2  0 - 1 -3 -5 D- F C +2 D+ A+ F
 Sun, Nov 9 187 Cornell W 76 - 65 85% +4  1 - 1 +6 -8 F C- F +14 A+ B- D
 Fri, Nov 14 48 USC L 67 - 87 33% -12  1 - 2 -9 +2 F A B- -11 C- C- F
 Sun, Nov 16 250 @Long Beach St. W 82 - 80 78% +4  2 - 2 +0 +11 C- F A+ -11 F C F
 Sun, Nov 23 252 Coastal Carolina W 94 - 42 90% +30  3 - 2 +44 +13 A+ C- A +28 A+ A+ C
 Thu, Nov 27 173 Charlotte W 79 - 69 76% +10  4 - 2 +9 +8 B- B- A+ +1 F A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 28 165 Furman W 72 - 65 75% +4  5 - 2 +6 +3 C A+ C +4 C- A+ C
 Wed, Dec 3 254 Eastern Kentucky W 89 - 78 90% +9  6 - 2 +3 +8 A A+ D- -5 C- C C+
 Sat, Dec 6 357 Chicago St. W 95 - 53 98% +30  7 - 2 +25 +18 A+ B B- +8 A+ D A+
 Sat, Dec 13 39 Utah St. L 78 - 83 27% -6  7 - 3 +8 +13 A+ A+ F -6 D- D A+
 Thu, Dec 18 146 @Southern Illinois W 75 - 68 60% -0  8 - 3 1 - 0 +11 +7 B A+ D+ +4 C C- A+
 Sun, Dec 21 188 Indiana St. W 85 - 65 85% +15  9 - 3 2 - 0 +15 +13 A+ F A+ +3 C A+ C-
 Mon, Dec 29 158 @Drake W 73 - 56 63% +8  10 - 3 3 - 0 +20 +6 A+ F F +15 A+ B C-
 Thu, Jan 1 271 Evansville W 73 - 47 92% +14  11 - 3 4 - 0 +17 -3 C F A+ +19 A+ A+ A+
 Wed, Jan 7 167 @Valparaiso L 71 - 77 66% -5  11 - 4 4 - 1 -4 +7 C- B A- -11 F A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 10 151 Illinois-Chicago L 59 - 63 OT 80% -1  11 - 5 4 - 2 -6 -13 F C- B+ +6 A+ F A-
 Wed, Jan 14 188 @Indiana St. L 89 - 94 69% -6  11 - 6 4 - 3 -4 +19 A+ B- A -22 F B- F
 Sat, Jan 17 119 Bradley W 88 - 62 74% +13  12 - 6 5 - 3 +26 +20 A+ A A+ +7 A+ A- A
 Wed, Jan 21 110 Northern Iowa W 59 - 54 71% +5  13 - 6 6 - 3 +6 -3 D+ A- F +10 A+ C C
 Sat, Jan 24 82 @Belmont L 74 - 78 36%
 Wed, Jan 28 97 @Murray St. L 79 - 81 43%
 Tue, Feb 3 146 Southern Illinois W 75 - 67 79%
 Fri, Feb 6 158 Drake W 75 - 66 80%
 Mon, Feb 9 271 @Evansville W 74 - 64 81%
 Thu, Feb 12 167 Valparaiso W 74 - 64 82%
 Sun, Feb 15 151 @Illinois-Chicago W 72 - 69 60%
 Wed, Feb 18 97 Murray St. W 82 - 78 65%
 Sat, Feb 21 119 @Bradley W 73 - 72 52%
 Wed, Feb 25 110 @Northern Iowa L 62 - 63 49%
 Sun, Mar 1 82 Belmont W 77 - 75 58%
Totals 20 - 10 13 - 7 +6 +3 B- C+ C+ +3 B B+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 4.8 8.0 4.5 0.9 19.0 1st
2nd 0.0 1.2 7.7 11.1 3.8 0.2 24.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.4 8.5 11.6 3.1 0.1 24.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 5.8 8.2 2.1 0.1 17.1 4th
5th 0.2 2.6 4.3 1.2 0.0 8.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 2.4 0.9 0.0 4.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.6 0.0 1.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.3 6.4 12.5 19.2 22.2 19.1 12.0 4.7 0.9 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.9    0.9 0.0
16-4 95.4% 4.5    3.7 0.8 0.0
15-5 67.1% 8.0    4.0 3.5 0.5
14-6 25.1% 4.8    0.8 2.4 1.4 0.2 0.0
13-7 3.1% 0.7    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 19.0% 19.0 9.5 6.8 2.2 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.9% 36.6% 36.0% 0.5% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.6 0.8%
16-4 4.7% 37.3% 37.1% 0.2% 11.5 0.0 0.9 0.8 0.0 2.9 0.3%
15-5 12.0% 32.3% 32.2% 0.1% 11.8 0.0 1.0 2.7 0.1 8.1 0.1%
14-6 19.1% 27.0% 27.0% 12.0 0.6 3.9 0.6 0.0 14.0
13-7 22.2% 23.4% 23.4% 12.2 0.3 3.9 1.0 0.0 17.0
12-8 19.2% 18.5% 18.5% 12.4 0.1 2.2 1.2 0.1 15.7
11-9 12.5% 13.9% 13.9% 12.5 0.0 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 10.7
10-10 6.4% 10.6% 10.6% 12.7 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 5.7
9-11 2.3% 6.7% 6.7% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.2
8-12 0.6% 1.8% 1.8% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.6
7-13 0.1% 0.1
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 22.4% 22.4% 0.0% 12.1 77.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 10.8 1.5 22.4 67.2 9.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 2.2% 12.0 2.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%