Illinois St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.5#135
Expected Predictive Rating+2.1#136
Pace62.3#336
Improvement+0.6#163

Offense
Total Offense+4.1#74
First Shot+7.1#26
After Offensive Rebound-3.0#333
Layup/Dunks-1.6#244
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#232
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.2#5
Freethrows+1.4#93
Improvement+2.1#75

Defense
Total Defense-2.5#249
First Shot-3.7#288
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#89
Layups/Dunks+2.1#97
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#312
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#286
Freethrows-1.2#272
Improvement-1.5#268
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.8% 6.4% 3.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.7 13.1
.500 or above 89.6% 96.9% 85.3%
.500 or above in Conference 59.8% 79.5% 48.0%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round4.8% 6.4% 3.8%
Second Round0.4% 0.7% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois-Chicago (Away) - 37.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 23 - 53 - 6
Quad 36 - 69 - 12
Quad 49 - 218 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 307   Tennessee Martin L 65-67 87%     0 - 1 -12.9 -20.2 +7.4
  Nov 07, 2024 139   @ North Dakota St. W 77-68 41%     1 - 1 +12.8 +7.9 +5.6
  Nov 12, 2024 168   Ohio W 85-75 65%     2 - 1 +7.5 +18.5 -10.1
  Nov 22, 2024 87   McNeese St. L 68-76 31%     2 - 2 -1.5 +7.6 -10.2
  Nov 23, 2024 96   UAB W 84-83 37%     3 - 2 +5.9 +5.1 +0.8
  Nov 25, 2024 124   George Washington L 64-72 48%     3 - 3 -5.9 -3.5 -2.8
  Dec 04, 2024 140   @ Belmont L 97-99 OT 41%     3 - 4 0 - 1 +1.8 +9.5 -7.5
  Dec 07, 2024 302   Pacific W 72-61 87%     4 - 4 +0.5 +1.5 +0.2
  Dec 15, 2024 105   Saint Louis W 81-77 49%     5 - 4 +5.9 +19.3 -12.9
  Dec 18, 2024 338   Northern Illinois W 81-60 92%     6 - 4 +6.9 +2.5 +4.3
  Dec 22, 2024 122   @ Cornell W 80-77 38%     7 - 4 +7.8 +10.4 -2.5
  Dec 29, 2024 123   Illinois-Chicago L 67-73 57%     7 - 5 0 - 2 -6.4 -0.5 -6.5
  Jan 02, 2025 171   @ Murray St. W 74-68 47%     8 - 5 1 - 2 +8.2 +10.6 -1.7
  Jan 05, 2025 183   Southern Illinois W 85-54 69%     9 - 5 2 - 2 +27.4 +12.5 +15.5
  Jan 08, 2025 230   @ Evansville L 51-69 61%     9 - 6 2 - 3 -19.5 -12.8 -9.1
  Jan 11, 2025 108   Northern Iowa L 84-85 50%     9 - 7 2 - 4 +0.5 +17.6 -17.2
  Jan 15, 2025 73   @ Drake L 62-66 21%     9 - 8 2 - 5 +6.1 +15.2 -10.5
  Jan 18, 2025 223   Missouri St. W 74-68 76%     10 - 8 3 - 5 +0.1 +8.2 -7.4
  Jan 21, 2025 210   Indiana St. W 85-81 74%     11 - 8 4 - 5 -1.1 +3.2 -4.5
  Jan 25, 2025 94   @ Bradley L 57-61 26%     11 - 9 4 - 6 +4.3 -4.0 +7.7
  Jan 29, 2025 140   Belmont W 81-78 60%     12 - 9 5 - 6 +1.8 +6.4 -4.5
  Feb 01, 2025 226   Valparaiso W 86-78 76%     13 - 9 6 - 6 +2.0 +18.4 -15.5
  Feb 05, 2025 123   @ Illinois-Chicago L 74-77 37%    
  Feb 08, 2025 108   @ Northern Iowa L 68-73 31%    
  Feb 12, 2025 73   Drake L 62-66 39%    
  Feb 15, 2025 210   @ Indiana St. W 80-78 54%    
  Feb 19, 2025 94   Bradley L 69-71 45%    
  Feb 22, 2025 223   @ Missouri St. W 69-67 58%    
  Feb 25, 2025 183   @ Southern Illinois W 73-72 49%    
  Mar 02, 2025 230   Evansville W 73-65 78%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.4 1.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.5 2.1 0.1 6.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 6.7 5.0 0.4 12.9 4th
5th 0.4 6.8 9.3 1.5 0.0 18.0 5th
6th 0.2 6.3 13.2 3.8 0.1 23.6 6th
7th 2.2 10.4 3.7 0.1 16.4 7th
8th 0.3 5.3 4.8 0.3 10.7 8th
9th 0.0 1.8 4.4 0.5 6.8 9th
10th 0.4 1.9 0.9 0.0 3.1 10th
11th 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.7 4.3 12.9 22.4 24.8 20.6 10.3 3.4 0.6 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 12.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.6% 11.3% 11.3% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.6
13-7 3.4% 14.1% 14.1% 12.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.9
12-8 10.3% 9.6% 9.6% 12.6 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 9.4
11-9 20.6% 5.9% 5.9% 12.7 0.5 0.5 0.2 19.3
10-10 24.8% 4.2% 4.2% 13.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 23.8
9-11 22.4% 3.0% 3.0% 13.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 21.8
8-12 12.9% 2.0% 2.0% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 12.6
7-13 4.3% 1.9% 1.9% 15.0 0.1 4.2
6-14 0.7% 0.7
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 4.8% 4.8% 0.0% 12.9 0.0 1.6 2.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 95.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 0.3%