Indiana St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.0#160
Expected Predictive Rating-0.9#179
Pace79.0#13
Improvement+4.6#10

Offense
Total Offense+3.3#90
First Shot+5.2#55
After Offensive Rebound-1.9#301
Layup/Dunks+2.9#78
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#357
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.9#8
Freethrows-1.7#283
Improvement+4.4#5

Defense
Total Defense-3.3#280
First Shot-5.0#333
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#55
Layups/Dunks-4.1#322
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#174
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#164
Freethrows-1.9#315
Improvement+0.2#174
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.1% 6.3% 2.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.2 13.7
.500 or above 50.6% 67.8% 40.9%
.500 or above in Conference 62.5% 78.1% 53.6%
Conference Champion 3.2% 6.8% 1.2%
Last Place in Conference 2.4% 1.0% 3.2%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round4.1% 6.3% 2.8%
Second Round0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bradley (Home) - 36.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 51 - 7
Quad 36 - 57 - 12
Quad 48 - 415 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 89   Florida Atlantic L 64-97 27%     0 - 1 -26.7 -18.2 -3.4
  Nov 12, 2024 280   SIU Edwardsville L 72-77 81%     0 - 2 -14.5 -3.9 -10.5
  Nov 16, 2024 251   @ Ball St. W 94-84 57%     1 - 2 +8.2 +7.9 -1.0
  Nov 22, 2024 360   Chicago St. W 97-61 94%     2 - 2 +18.2 +14.5 +2.4
  Nov 25, 2024 326   @ Southern Indiana L 77-87 73%     2 - 3 -16.3 -5.3 -10.1
  Nov 29, 2024 104   Arkansas St. L 81-86 33%     2 - 4 -0.5 +6.8 -7.0
  Nov 30, 2024 262   Iona W 83-80 70%     3 - 4 -2.4 +5.8 -8.4
  Dec 01, 2024 289   Tarleton St. W 87-71 75%     4 - 4 +9.0 +14.8 -5.7
  Dec 07, 2024 203   @ Missouri St. W 80-77 46%     5 - 4 1 - 0 +4.0 +11.3 -7.3
  Dec 18, 2024 129   Murray St. W 84-74 55%     6 - 4 2 - 0 +8.6 +9.7 -1.2
  Dec 29, 2024 28   @ Ohio St. L 83-103 7%     6 - 5 -3.5 +8.0 -9.2
  Jan 01, 2025 84   Bradley L 78-82 36%    
  Jan 04, 2025 300   @ Evansville W 80-76 66%    
  Jan 08, 2025 216   @ Valparaiso L 82-83 49%    
  Jan 11, 2025 138   Belmont W 89-87 57%    
  Jan 15, 2025 84   @ Bradley L 75-85 19%    
  Jan 18, 2025 67   Drake L 69-74 32%    
  Jan 21, 2025 153   @ Illinois St. L 77-80 39%    
  Jan 25, 2025 98   Northern Iowa L 78-80 43%    
  Jan 29, 2025 203   Missouri St. W 78-73 68%    
  Feb 01, 2025 174   @ Illinois-Chicago L 82-84 41%    
  Feb 05, 2025 216   Valparaiso W 85-79 69%    
  Feb 08, 2025 67   @ Drake L 66-77 16%    
  Feb 11, 2025 98   @ Northern Iowa L 75-83 23%    
  Feb 15, 2025 153   Illinois St. W 80-77 59%    
  Feb 19, 2025 300   Evansville W 83-73 82%    
  Feb 22, 2025 138   @ Belmont L 86-90 35%    
  Feb 25, 2025 129   @ Murray St. L 74-79 34%    
  Mar 02, 2025 200   Southern Illinois W 83-78 67%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 3.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.9 1.5 0.5 0.1 7.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.2 4.2 2.5 0.5 0.0 11.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 4.6 6.1 2.7 0.3 0.0 14.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 4.7 6.2 2.5 0.4 0.0 14.7 5th
6th 0.5 3.7 6.4 2.6 0.3 13.4 6th
7th 0.3 3.0 5.3 2.7 0.3 11.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.6 4.7 2.5 0.3 9.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 3.1 2.3 0.3 0.0 6.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.0 1.8 0.4 0.0 4.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 2.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 1.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.8 4.1 6.9 10.9 12.9 15.1 14.4 12.5 8.9 6.1 3.1 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
17-3 79.6% 0.5    0.4 0.1
16-4 62.0% 0.9    0.5 0.4 0.0
15-5 35.4% 1.1    0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
14-6 6.5% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.2% 3.2 1.5 1.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.2% 40.0% 40.0% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.6% 16.6% 16.6% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
16-4 1.4% 19.5% 19.5% 12.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 1.2
15-5 3.1% 16.4% 16.4% 12.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 2.6
14-6 6.1% 10.4% 10.4% 12.8 0.2 0.4 0.1 5.5
13-7 8.9% 8.0% 8.0% 13.3 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 8.2
12-8 12.5% 4.9% 4.9% 13.6 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 11.9
11-9 14.4% 3.9% 3.9% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 13.9
10-10 15.1% 2.0% 2.0% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 14.8
9-11 12.9% 1.1% 1.1% 15.4 0.1 0.1 12.7
8-12 10.9% 0.9% 0.9% 15.7 0.0 0.1 10.8
7-13 6.9% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 6.9
6-14 4.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 4.1
5-15 1.8% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 1.8
4-16 0.7% 0.7
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.8 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.2 95.9 0.0%