Indiana St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.4#196
Expected Predictive Rating-4.0#231
Pace78.9#16
Improvement-1.4#291

Offense
Total Offense-3.3#254
First Shot+0.3#170
After Offensive Rebound-3.6#347
Layup/Dunks+6.7#18
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#322
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#241
Freethrows-1.8#278
Improvement-1.4#292

Defense
Total Defense+0.9#138
First Shot+2.3#103
After Offensive Rebounds-1.4#281
Layups/Dunks-2.3#263
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#317
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#43
Freethrows+2.6#47
Improvement+0.0#187
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.6% 1.7% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 14.0 14.4
.500 or above 21.4% 24.4% 8.7%
.500 or above in Conference 25.3% 27.4% 16.5%
Conference Champion 1.1% 1.2% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 16.5% 15.2% 22.3%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round1.5% 1.6% 1.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Indiana (Home) - 81.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 51 - 6
Quad 35 - 86 - 15
Quad 47 - 412 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 186 @Charlotte L 76-92 37%     0 - 1 -14.9 +3.2 -18.3
  Mon, Nov 10 206 @SIU Edwardsville W 64-55 40%     1 - 1 +9.2 -7.0 +16.1
  Fri, Nov 14 3 @Duke L 62-100 1%     1 - 2 -13.1 -3.8 -6.0
  Wed, Nov 19 188 Louisiana Tech W 60-51 60%     2 - 2 +4.0 -14.1 +17.8
  Sat, Nov 22 316 Ball St. W 70-52 81%     3 - 2 +6.5 -2.0 +10.0
  Wed, Nov 26 188 @Louisiana Tech L 73-75 37%     3 - 3 -1.0 +5.9 -7.1
  Fri, Nov 28 333 Alcorn St. L 74-81 78%     3 - 4 -17.5 -12.4 -4.3
  Sun, Dec 7 317 Southern Indiana W 84-75 81%    
  Sun, Dec 14 221 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 78-80 43%    
  Thu, Dec 18 124 Bradley L 73-75 42%    
  Sun, Dec 21 101 @Illinois St. L 70-80 17%    
  Mon, Dec 29 88 Belmont L 76-81 32%    
  Thu, Jan 1 87 @Northern Iowa L 63-74 15%    
  Sun, Jan 4 128 @Drake L 68-76 24%    
  Sat, Jan 10 279 Evansville W 76-69 74%    
  Wed, Jan 14 101 Illinois St. L 73-77 36%    
  Sat, Jan 17 113 @Murray St. L 78-87 21%    
  Wed, Jan 21 124 @Bradley L 70-78 24%    
  Sat, Jan 24 128 Drake L 71-73 44%    
  Tue, Jan 27 204 @Illinois-Chicago L 75-78 41%    
  Sat, Jan 31 214 Valparaiso W 74-70 64%    
  Tue, Feb 3 279 @Evansville W 73-72 54%    
  Mon, Feb 9 142 Southern Illinois L 77-78 48%    
  Thu, Feb 12 113 Murray St. L 81-84 40%    
  Sun, Feb 15 214 @Valparaiso L 71-73 43%    
  Wed, Feb 18 87 Northern Iowa L 66-71 32%    
  Sat, Feb 21 88 @Belmont L 73-84 16%    
  Wed, Feb 25 142 @Southern Illinois L 74-81 28%    
  Sun, Mar 1 204 Illinois-Chicago W 78-75 62%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 1.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 1.5 1.3 0.4 0.0 3.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.0 1.8 0.5 0.1 5.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 2.6 2.8 0.8 0.0 7.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 3.4 4.2 1.1 0.1 9.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.2 4.0 4.6 1.7 0.1 11.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.9 5.8 1.9 0.1 16.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 3.3 5.8 5.2 1.6 0.1 16.9 9th
10th 0.3 1.6 3.9 5.4 3.7 1.0 0.1 0.0 15.9 10th
11th 0.2 0.7 1.9 2.7 2.9 1.5 0.5 0.0 10.3 11th
Total 0.2 0.7 2.2 4.4 7.5 10.5 12.6 13.4 12.4 10.8 9.1 6.7 4.6 2.5 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-3 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 74.6% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 54.1% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0
14-6 22.4% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 4.1% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 23.1% 23.1% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.2% 14.1% 14.1% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-5 0.7% 12.8% 12.8% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
14-6 1.4% 9.9% 9.9% 12.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.3
13-7 2.5% 5.7% 5.7% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.4
12-8 4.6% 5.9% 5.9% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.3
11-9 6.7% 3.3% 3.3% 13.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.4
10-10 9.1% 2.3% 2.3% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.9
9-11 10.8% 1.2% 1.2% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 10.7
8-12 12.4% 1.3% 1.3% 15.6 0.1 0.1 12.3
7-13 13.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 13.4
6-14 12.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.6
5-15 10.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 10.4
4-16 7.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.5
3-17 4.4% 4.4
2-18 2.2% 2.2
1-19 0.7% 0.7
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 98.4 0.0%