Illinois-Chicago
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.7#204
Expected Predictive Rating-7.6#281
Pace72.0#122
Improvement-3.4#350

Offense
Total Offense-2.1#225
First Shot-6.0#329
After Offensive Rebound+3.9#24
Layup/Dunks-0.7#204
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#262
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.7#345
Freethrows+3.0#45
Improvement-2.1#336

Defense
Total Defense-0.6#186
First Shot+0.8#144
After Offensive Rebounds-1.5#284
Layups/Dunks-1.1#213
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#10
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#271
Freethrows+1.3#108
Improvement-1.3#298
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.5% 2.7% 1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 13.9 14.6
.500 or above 13.3% 28.4% 11.6%
.500 or above in Conference 22.2% 33.5% 20.9%
Conference Champion 0.9% 1.8% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 18.5% 11.4% 19.4%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
First Round1.4% 2.5% 1.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Yale (Away) - 10.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 61 - 7
Quad 34 - 95 - 16
Quad 47 - 311 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 313 Detroit Mercy W 91-71 80%     1 - 0 +8.6 +1.4 +4.9
  Fri, Nov 7 163 @Oregon St. L 73-76 31%     1 - 1 -0.6 +1.9 -2.6
  Sat, Nov 15 350 @Chicago St. W 67-63 72%     2 - 1 -4.8 -4.0 -0.4
  Thu, Nov 20 93 High Point L 80-90 22%     2 - 2 -4.7 +3.2 -7.4
  Sat, Nov 22 317 Southern Indiana W 84-73 72%     3 - 2 +2.4 +4.3 -2.4
  Wed, Nov 26 183 @Robert Morris L 74-88 35%     3 - 3 -12.7 +4.3 -17.4
  Wed, Dec 3 358 Arkansas Pine Bluff L 62-63 91%     3 - 4 -18.1 -19.6 +1.4
  Sun, Dec 7 73 @Yale L 71-84 10%    
  Sat, Dec 13 88 @Belmont L 71-82 14%    
  Wed, Dec 17 87 Northern Iowa L 64-70 30%    
  Sun, Dec 21 186 @Charlotte L 69-73 36%    
  Thu, Jan 1 113 Murray St. L 79-82 38%    
  Sun, Jan 4 214 @Valparaiso L 69-71 41%    
  Wed, Jan 7 142 Southern Illinois L 75-76 46%    
  Sat, Jan 10 101 @Illinois St. L 68-79 17%    
  Tue, Jan 13 87 @Northern Iowa L 61-73 15%    
  Sat, Jan 17 128 Drake L 69-71 43%    
  Tue, Jan 20 279 Evansville W 74-67 73%    
  Sat, Jan 24 124 @Bradley L 68-77 21%    
  Tue, Jan 27 196 Indiana St. W 78-75 59%    
  Sat, Jan 31 142 @Southern Illinois L 72-79 27%    
  Tue, Feb 3 113 @Murray St. L 76-85 20%    
  Fri, Feb 6 88 Belmont L 74-79 31%    
  Thu, Feb 12 128 @Drake L 66-74 23%    
  Sun, Feb 15 101 Illinois St. L 71-76 34%    
  Wed, Feb 18 279 @Evansville W 71-70 53%    
  Sat, Feb 21 214 Valparaiso W 72-68 63%    
  Tue, Feb 24 124 Bradley L 71-74 41%    
  Sun, Mar 1 196 @Indiana St. L 75-78 38%    
Projected Record 11 - 18 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 1.6 1.7 0.4 0.0 4.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.4 2.6 0.6 0.1 6.4 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 3.6 3.7 1.0 0.0 9.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.2 4.1 4.8 1.5 0.1 11.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.3 5.3 1.8 0.1 15.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 3.4 6.4 5.2 1.4 0.1 17.6 9th
10th 0.4 1.8 4.5 6.1 3.7 1.1 0.1 17.7 10th
11th 0.2 0.9 2.2 3.6 3.0 1.7 0.4 0.1 12.0 11th
Total 0.2 0.9 2.6 5.4 8.4 11.6 12.9 13.0 11.9 10.9 8.2 5.7 3.9 2.4 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 100.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0
16-4 86.0% 0.2    0.1 0.0
15-5 54.0% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 20.7% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 4.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.9% 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.2% 28.1% 28.1% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.6% 11.4% 11.4% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
14-6 1.2% 10.1% 10.1% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.1
13-7 2.4% 7.8% 7.8% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.2
12-8 3.9% 4.2% 4.2% 13.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.7
11-9 5.7% 3.1% 3.1% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 5.5
10-10 8.2% 2.7% 2.7% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.0
9-11 10.9% 1.2% 1.2% 15.6 0.1 0.1 10.8
8-12 11.9% 0.9% 0.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 11.8
7-13 13.0% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 12.9
6-14 12.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 12.9
5-15 11.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.5
4-16 8.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 8.4
3-17 5.4% 5.4
2-18 2.6% 2.6
1-19 0.9% 0.9
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 98.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%