Illinois-Chicago
Missouri Valley
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.1#123
Expected Predictive Rating+3.6#118
Pace71.6#92
Improvement+3.5#47

Offense
Total Offense+2.8#96
First Shot+1.6#127
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#115
Layup/Dunks+1.0#142
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#284
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#129
Freethrows+1.1#110
Improvement+2.5#58

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#193
First Shot-0.8#204
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#176
Layups/Dunks-4.3#326
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#173
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#105
Freethrows+1.3#93
Improvement+1.0#128
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.4% 8.8% 5.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.6 12.5 12.7
.500 or above 96.3% 98.9% 91.9%
.500 or above in Conference 92.8% 97.5% 84.7%
Conference Champion 1.1% 1.5% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round7.4% 8.8% 5.0%
Second Round0.7% 0.8% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois St. (Home) - 62.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 24 - 25 - 4
Quad 37 - 611 - 10
Quad 46 - 318 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 69   Yale W 91-79 38%     1 - 0 +17.4 +11.6 +4.7
  Nov 12, 2024 56   @ Northwestern L 74-83 17%     1 - 1 +3.3 +5.6 -2.0
  Nov 21, 2024 137   James Madison L 81-99 53%     1 - 2 -16.6 +1.9 -17.1
  Nov 22, 2024 193   La Salle W 96-83 64%     2 - 2 +11.5 +16.0 -5.5
  Nov 23, 2024 150   East Carolina L 55-72 55%     2 - 3 -16.2 -12.5 -5.2
  Dec 04, 2024 108   Northern Iowa L 56-83 52%     2 - 4 0 - 1 -25.5 -9.5 -19.7
  Dec 08, 2024 257   Dartmouth W 69-68 OT 83%     3 - 4 -7.0 -16.6 +9.5
  Dec 15, 2024 227   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 77-69 OT 62%     4 - 4 +6.9 +5.9 +0.8
  Dec 20, 2024 162   @ Seattle W 79-68 48%     5 - 4 +13.7 +5.3 +7.9
  Dec 29, 2024 135   @ Illinois St. W 73-67 43%     6 - 4 1 - 1 +10.0 +6.7 +3.9
  Jan 01, 2025 73   Drake W 74-70 39%     7 - 4 2 - 1 +9.1 +17.2 -7.4
  Jan 04, 2025 140   @ Belmont L 87-92 44%     7 - 5 2 - 2 -1.2 +4.2 -4.9
  Jan 07, 2025 223   @ Missouri St. W 80-63 62%     8 - 5 3 - 2 +16.1 +19.3 -0.7
  Jan 11, 2025 94   Bradley L 60-61 45%     8 - 6 3 - 3 +2.3 -8.9 +11.1
  Jan 15, 2025 171   Murray St. W 97-93 2OT 68%     9 - 6 4 - 3 +1.3 +2.1 -1.6
  Jan 18, 2025 226   @ Valparaiso W 81-74 62%     10 - 6 5 - 3 +6.0 +6.5 -0.5
  Jan 22, 2025 230   @ Evansville W 78-67 64%     11 - 6 6 - 3 +9.5 +12.0 -1.8
  Jan 25, 2025 183   Southern Illinois L 85-89 71%     11 - 7 6 - 4 -7.6 +8.0 -15.5
  Jan 29, 2025 94   @ Bradley W 93-70 28%     12 - 7 7 - 4 +31.3 +22.2 +8.4
  Feb 01, 2025 210   Indiana St. L 83-88 75%     12 - 8 7 - 5 -10.1 -0.2 -9.4
  Feb 05, 2025 135   Illinois St. W 77-74 63%    
  Feb 08, 2025 183   @ Southern Illinois W 77-76 51%    
  Feb 11, 2025 171   @ Murray St. L 73-74 48%    
  Feb 16, 2025 223   Missouri St. W 75-67 79%    
  Feb 19, 2025 73   @ Drake L 63-71 21%    
  Feb 22, 2025 230   Evansville W 76-67 81%    
  Feb 26, 2025 108   @ Northern Iowa L 72-76 32%    
  Mar 02, 2025 226   Valparaiso W 82-74 79%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.4 1.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.6 3.3 0.6 7.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 8.7 10.5 2.2 0.1 22.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 11.1 14.8 3.6 0.1 30.9 4th
5th 0.3 6.0 11.1 3.2 0.1 20.7 5th
6th 0.0 1.8 6.5 2.3 0.1 10.6 6th
7th 0.1 2.6 1.6 0.1 4.3 7th
8th 0.5 1.3 0.1 1.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.1 1.1 6.1 15.5 25.9 27.3 16.9 6.1 1.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 38.8% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1
14-6 9.3% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 1.0% 21.4% 21.4% 11.5 0.1 0.1 0.8
14-6 6.1% 12.7% 12.7% 12.2 0.1 0.6 0.2 5.4
13-7 16.9% 12.3% 12.3% 12.4 0.0 1.2 0.7 0.1 14.8
12-8 27.3% 8.3% 8.3% 12.6 0.0 1.1 1.1 0.1 25.0
11-9 25.9% 5.1% 5.1% 12.8 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 24.6
10-10 15.5% 3.4% 3.4% 13.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 15.0
9-11 6.1% 2.5% 2.5% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.9
8-12 1.1% 0.9% 0.9% 15.0 0.0 1.1
7-13 0.1% 0.1
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 7.4% 7.4% 0.0% 12.6 0.2 3.5 3.0 0.6 0.0 92.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 11.5 45.5 54.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%