Northern Iowa
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.0#108
Expected Predictive Rating+2.2#133
Pace64.2#293
Improvement-0.9#230

Offense
Total Offense+3.1#88
First Shot+4.5#61
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#267
Layup/Dunks+1.6#125
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#41
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#164
Freethrows-0.5#211
Improvement-1.2#262

Defense
Total Defense+0.9#146
First Shot+0.0#180
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#103
Layups/Dunks+2.6#81
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#352
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#229
Freethrows+2.3#45
Improvement+0.3#170
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.4% 15.6% 12.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.6 12.5 12.8
.500 or above 96.9% 98.9% 93.0%
.500 or above in Conference 98.7% 99.8% 96.5%
Conference Champion 6.3% 8.6% 1.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round14.4% 15.6% 12.2%
Second Round1.9% 2.2% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Missouri St. (Away) - 66.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 23 - 53 - 6
Quad 37 - 610 - 12
Quad 49 - 119 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 133   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 87-68 68%     1 - 0 +18.1 +16.0 +2.7
  Nov 10, 2024 67   UC Irvine L 60-80 44%     1 - 1 -14.5 -5.6 -9.1
  Nov 14, 2024 134   @ Wichita St. L 73-79 50%     1 - 2 -2.0 +3.2 -5.2
  Nov 19, 2024 354   Western Illinois W 82-56 96%     2 - 2 +10.2 +11.1 +2.2
  Nov 28, 2024 70   North Texas L 48-68 36%     2 - 3 -12.2 -14.1 +0.2
  Nov 29, 2024 95   St. Bonaventure L 56-68 45%     2 - 4 -6.7 -7.7 -0.4
  Dec 04, 2024 123   @ Illinois-Chicago W 83-56 48%     3 - 4 1 - 0 +31.6 +22.2 +13.1
  Dec 07, 2024 338   Northern Illinois W 101-57 94%     4 - 4 +29.9 +27.8 +4.3
  Dec 13, 2024 212   Nebraska Omaha W 78-58 81%     5 - 4 +14.8 +6.5 +9.8
  Dec 16, 2024 207   Montana W 104-76 80%     6 - 4 +23.2 +31.0 -6.6
  Dec 21, 2024 103   Washington St. L 68-76 48%     6 - 5 -3.5 +0.7 -4.6
  Dec 29, 2024 183   Southern Illinois W 78-67 77%     7 - 5 2 - 0 +7.4 +8.3 -0.3
  Jan 01, 2025 140   Belmont W 76-70 69%     8 - 5 3 - 0 +4.8 -3.7 +8.3
  Jan 04, 2025 226   @ Valparaiso L 73-80 69%     8 - 6 3 - 1 -8.0 +0.0 -8.2
  Jan 08, 2025 171   Murray St. L 68-71 74%     8 - 7 3 - 2 -5.7 +3.1 -9.3
  Jan 11, 2025 135   @ Illinois St. W 85-84 50%     9 - 7 4 - 2 +5.0 +17.8 -12.7
  Jan 14, 2025 230   Evansville W 73-56 84%     10 - 7 5 - 2 +10.6 -1.8 +12.0
  Jan 18, 2025 183   @ Southern Illinois L 49-73 60%     10 - 8 5 - 3 -22.7 -15.0 -11.5
  Jan 21, 2025 223   Missouri St. W 79-68 82%     11 - 8 6 - 3 +5.1 +15.2 -8.5
  Jan 25, 2025 210   @ Indiana St. W 74-56 65%     12 - 8 7 - 3 +17.9 +2.1 +16.4
  Jan 29, 2025 73   @ Drake L 52-66 28%     12 - 9 7 - 4 -3.9 -2.5 -5.1
  Feb 02, 2025 94   Bradley W 83-69 53%     13 - 9 8 - 4 +17.3 +15.0 +2.7
  Feb 05, 2025 223   @ Missouri St. W 70-65 66%    
  Feb 08, 2025 135   Illinois St. W 73-68 69%    
  Feb 11, 2025 210   Indiana St. W 82-73 81%    
  Feb 16, 2025 171   @ Murray St. W 70-68 54%    
  Feb 19, 2025 140   @ Belmont W 79-78 49%    
  Feb 23, 2025 73   Drake L 63-64 47%    
  Feb 26, 2025 123   Illinois-Chicago W 76-72 68%    
  Mar 02, 2025 94   @ Bradley L 67-71 33%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.3 1.5 6.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 6.1 10.7 4.7 0.3 22.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.6 11.4 17.8 6.9 0.5 38.2 3rd
4th 0.4 6.1 9.3 2.3 0.0 18.2 4th
5th 0.0 2.1 5.7 1.8 0.0 9.7 5th
6th 0.3 2.2 1.0 0.0 3.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 0.5 0.0 1.1 7th
8th 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.2 1.1 5.4 14.4 23.3 26.4 19.0 8.5 1.8 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 81.5% 1.5    0.8 0.7 0.0
15-5 39.4% 3.3    0.9 1.8 0.6
14-6 6.9% 1.3    0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.3% 6.3 1.8 3.1 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 1.8% 26.1% 26.1% 11.6 0.2 0.3 0.0 1.4
15-5 8.5% 24.6% 24.6% 12.1 0.2 1.6 0.4 0.0 6.4
14-6 19.0% 19.1% 19.1% 12.4 0.1 2.3 1.3 0.1 15.3
13-7 26.4% 15.3% 15.3% 12.7 0.0 1.6 2.1 0.3 22.4
12-8 23.3% 11.4% 11.4% 12.8 0.0 1.0 1.4 0.3 20.6
11-9 14.4% 8.3% 8.3% 13.2 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 13.2
10-10 5.4% 6.2% 6.2% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 5.0
9-11 1.1% 2.6% 2.6% 14.7 0.0 0.0 1.1
8-12 0.2% 0.2
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 14.4% 14.4% 0.0% 12.6 0.5 6.8 5.8 1.2 0.1 85.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 11.6 43.8 54.2 2.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%