IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Wichita St.
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating	+4.6	#103
Expected Predictive Rating	+2.3	#126

Pace	64.6	#291
Improvement	-3.6	#327

	Overall	1st FGA	Second Chance	TOs	Free throws	Shot Selection
Offense	#103	C-	A+	B+	C	C
Defense	#114	B-	B	C-	B	A-

Offense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	42%	#100	1.09	#264	+0.4	#162
2 Pt. Jumpers	21%	#164	0.69	#281	-0.5	#201
Three Pointers	37%	#262	1.02	#178	-1.8	#247
1st FG Attempt			0.98	#235	-1.9	#232
Freethrows	17.7	#160	70%	#258	12.5	#199
Second Chance	41.6%	#3	1.07	#144	0.44	#21
Turnovers					14.3%	#59
Total Offense					+2.9	#103

Defense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	37%	#231	1.12	#133	+1.5	#128
2 Pt. Jumpers	27%	#27	0.75	#162	-2.6	#346
Three Pointers	35%	#323	0.95	#102	+4.0	#41
1st FG Attempt			0.96	#90	+2.8	#90
Freethrows	14.7	#57	72%	#154	10.6	#61
Second Chance	28.6%	#100	0.97	#81	0.28	#85
Turnovers					15.4%	#246
Total Defense					+1.8	#114

Miscellaneous

	Offense		Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect	0.4%	#169	-2.0%	#38
Shot Type Accuracy Effect	-4.2%	#242	-3.6%	#112
Possession Length	17.6	#197	18.2	#305
Fast Break Points Per Possession	0.13	#295	0.12	#39
Improvement	-0.7	#219	-2.9	#331

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	9.5%	11.3%	7.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	12.1	12.0	12.3

.500 or above	92.5%	96.9%	86.7%
.500 or above in Conference	87.6%	94.4%	78.5%
Conference Champion	7.2%	11.0%	2.2%
Last Place in Conference	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

First Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
First Round	9.5%	11.3%	7.1%
Second Round	1.2%	1.5%	0.8%
Sweet Sixteen	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Memphis (Home) - 56.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 2	3 - 4	4 - 6
Quad 3	5 - 5	9 - 12
Quad 4	10 - 2	19 - 13

Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Record		Total Rating	Offense				Defense
Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Overall	Conf	Total Rating	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs
Tue, Nov 4	205 UNC Asheville	W	75 - 58	84%	+4	1 - 0		+11	+2	F	A+	F	+9	A+	F	A
Sat, Nov 8	317 Prairie View	W	105 - 62	94%	+18	2 - 0		+30	+17	A-	B+	A+	+9	A+	F	A+
Thu, Nov 13	268 Loyola Chicago	W	95 - 74	89%	+14	3 - 0		+12	+23	C	A+	A+	-10	F	A+	D
Tue, Nov 18	66 @Boise St.	L	59 - 62	26%	-4	3 - 1		+8	-2	F	A+	D+	+10	A+	C	C
Sat, Nov 22	248 Wisconsin-Milwaukee	W	75 - 58	88%	+1	4 - 1		+9	+0	D	D-	A	+10	A+	B-	B
Wed, Nov 26	42 St. Mary's	L	65 - 70	24%	-3	4 - 2		+7	-0	D+	C	F	+7	A+	A	F
Thu, Nov 27	96 Colorado St.	L	70 - 76	47%	-10	4 - 3		-1	+9	F	A+	B-	-11	F	A+	C-
Fri, Nov 28	162 Western Kentucky	L	70 - 75	68%	-1	4 - 4		-5	+5	D	A-	A+	-11	D-	B+	D-
Sat, Dec 6	110 @Northern Iowa	W	74 - 69 OT	42%	+2	5 - 4		+12	+9	A+	A	D-	+3	C+	A+	D-
Sat, Dec 13	99 DePaul	L	58 - 61	59%	-1	5 - 5		-1	-5	D	C	B-	+4	F	A+	A+
Wed, Dec 17	215 Wofford	W	84 - 73	85%	+7	6 - 5		+5	+11	B	C+	A	-5	C+	F	D
Sun, Dec 21	254 Eastern Kentucky	W	88 - 57	88%	+22	7 - 5		+23	+12	C	A+	A+	+12	A+	A+	F
Wed, Dec 31	117 @UAB	W	75 - 70	45%	-6	8 - 5	1 - 0	+11	+11	C+	A+	C	+0	B-	C	C-
Sat, Jan 3	173 @Charlotte	L	100 - 104 2OT	60%	+10	8 - 6	1 - 1	-2	+19	B	A+	C	-21	C	F	F
Wed, Jan 7	239 Rice	L	64 - 66	87%	-2	8 - 7	1 - 2	-9	-8	F	F	A+	-2	D+	A+	D-
Sun, Jan 11	127 North Texas	W	78 - 67	70%	+8	9 - 7	2 - 2	+10	+8	A+	B-	F	+1	A+	C-	D
Thu, Jan 15	95 @Florida Atlantic	L	67 - 85	35%	-15	9 - 8	2 - 3	-9	-1	F	B	C	-8	F	A+	C
Sun, Jan 18	74 @South Florida	W	86 - 85 OT	28%	+1	10 - 8	3 - 3	+12	+11	B	C+	A+	+1	B-	A+	C-
Wed, Jan 21	267 East Carolina	W	77 - 60	89%	+14	11 - 8	4 - 3	+8	+8	F	A+	A+	+1	A+	A+	F
Sat, Jan 24	92 Memphis	W	72 - 70	57%
Sun, Feb 1	70 @Tulsa	L	73 - 79	27%
Wed, Feb 4	173 Charlotte	W	75 - 66	80%
Sun, Feb 8	172 @Tulane	W	73 - 70	60%
Wed, Feb 11	74 South Florida	L	76 - 77	49%
Sat, Feb 14	70 Tulsa	L	75 - 76	49%
Wed, Feb 18	267 @East Carolina	W	75 - 67	77%
Sat, Feb 21	140 Temple	W	75 - 69	73%
Thu, Feb 26	92 @Memphis	L	69 - 73	35%
Sun, Mar 1	345 @Texas San Antonio	W	80 - 66	90%
Sat, Mar 7	95 Florida Atlantic	W	76 - 74	58%
Totals						18 - 12	11 - 7	+5	+3	C-	A+	B+	+2	B-	B	C-

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected American Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0	Total
1st												0.0	0.6	3.3	2.7	0.6				7.2	1st
2nd											0.0	0.4	4.8	4.7	0.5					10.3	2nd
3rd											0.1	3.4	7.8	1.2	0.0					12.5	3rd
4th										0.0	1.4	8.9	3.4	0.0						13.8	4th
5th										0.3	6.2	7.6	0.3							14.5	5th
6th									0.1	3.1	8.8	1.6								13.6	6th
7th								0.0	1.1	6.8	3.6	0.1								11.7	7th
8th							0.0	0.5	3.5	4.2	0.4									8.6	8th
9th							0.1	1.5	3.0	0.6										5.2	9th
10th						0.0	0.4	1.2	0.5	0.0										2.1	10th
11th					0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.0											0.4	11th
12th					0.0	0.0	0.0													0.1	12th
13th																					13th

Total					0.0	0.2	0.7	3.3	8.2	15.0	20.5	22.1	17.0	9.2	3.2	0.6					Total

American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total	Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3	100.0%	0.6	0.5	0.1
14-4	85.0%	2.7	1.5	1.1	0.1	0.0
13-5	35.8%	3.3	0.4	1.4	1.0	0.4	0.0
12-6	3.4%	0.6	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0
11-7	0.0%	0.0							0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	7.2%	7.2	2.4	2.6	1.3	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance	Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid	At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3	0.6%	24.4%	24.4%		10.8								0.0		0.0	0.1	0.0					0.5
14-4	3.2%	22.2%	22.2%		11.5										0.0	0.3	0.3	0.0				2.5
13-5	9.2%	17.5%	17.5%		11.8											0.4	1.2	0.1				7.6
12-6	17.0%	15.7%	15.7%		12.0											0.3	2.1	0.3				14.3
11-7	22.1%	10.0%	10.0%		12.2											0.1	1.6	0.5	0.0			19.9
10-8	20.5%	6.1%	6.1%		12.3											0.1	0.8	0.4	0.0			19.3
9-9	15.0%	4.2%	4.2%		12.5											0.0	0.3	0.2	0.0			14.4
8-10	8.2%	2.3%	2.3%		13.6													0.1	0.1	0.0		8.0
7-11	3.3%	2.3%	2.3%		14.3													0.0	0.0	0.0		3.2
6-12	0.7%	2.1%	2.1%		15.7															0.0	0.0	0.7
5-13	0.2%	3.0%	3.0%		16.0																0.0	0.2
4-14	0.0%																					0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18

Total	100%	9.5%	9.5%	0.0%	12.1																	90.5	0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.1%	100.0%	10.8								3.4		13.8	79.3	3.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.2%